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ImportantCompuTrakDefinitions

CompuTrakHandicapper2005buildsupontheprovensuccessofprevious
versions.FurtherresearchnowgivesyouanOddsLineandSummaryforfast,
profitproducingdata,aratingthatletsyoujudgethepresentFormofa
horse,anImproveNumbershowingyouhowthecapabilityofthehorsehas
changedfromracetorace,andtheMagicNumberthatcombinestheBoxer
NumberandSpeedRatingtogiveyouanoverallhorserating.
YoucanseethecompletelistoftheCompuTrakHandicapper2005output
informationinAppendixAoftheUsersManual,andexamplesofhowthis
informationispresentedtoyouinAppendixB.
ClickonthelinksbelowforbriefdiscussionsofsomeoftheCompuTrak
Handicapper2005outputstoseehowtheoverallpoweroftheprogramcan
pointyoutothewinninghorses,andtoseehowtheoutputsareshownto
you.

OddsLine
Predicted
FinishTime
EarlySpeed
HorseFriction
BoxerNumber

OddsLine
EarlySpeed,MagicNumber,andForm(seediscussionsbelow),
arethreeexceptionallyimportantdescriptorsofahorses
capability.Theyarecombinedmathematicallytogeneratethe
probabilityofwinningforeachofthehorsesintherace.The
probabilityofwinningisthenconvertedintotheodds.

SpeedRating

Clearly,thelowertheodds,thehighertheprobabilityofthe
horsewinning.Thisisveryusefulaspartofyourdecision
makingastowhether,andhowmuch,towager.

Horse

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Form

Improvement
MagicNumber
Output
Appearance

PredictedFinishTime
PredictedFinishTimeisoneofthemoreimportantCompuTrak
outputs.Afterallitisthehorsewiththebestfinishtimethat
winstherace.CompuTrakobtainsthisimportantvalueusing
datasuchaspositionandtimesattheinternalcallsandfinish,
trackvariant,andweightcarried,inthemathematical
equationsfoundinEngineeringAnalysisofthoroughbred
racing.PredictedFinishTimeisarelativefinishtimewhich
comparesthefinishtimeofahorserelativetotheother
horses.Allpreviouspacelineshavebeennormalizedfortrack
variant,trackpar,andweightcarried,soallthehorsesare
placedonanequalfootingfortodaysrace.Sincethevariant
oftodaystrackisnotknowninadvance,thePredictedFinish
Timesarerelative,rankingthehorsesfinishtimesrelativeto
eachother.Thebottomline:ThelowerthePredictedFinish
Time,thebetter.
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EarlySpeed
KnowingEarlySpeedgivesyouanotherhandicapping
advantage.Thisisespeciallytrueinshortsprints.TheEarly
SpeedprovidedbyCompuTrakisunique,becauseitgivesyou

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thehorsesspeedatthebeginningoftherace,unlike.other
systemswhichapproximatethisspeedbyusingthetimeand
distancetothefirstcall.
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HorseFriction
OneofthemoreuniqueCompuTrakoutputsarisingfromthe
applicationofengineeringprinciplestohorseracing.Itiswell
knownthatfrictionisanengineeringconceptthatmeasures
impedimenttomotion.Thepaper,EngineeringAnalysisof
ThoroughbredRacingderivedthefrictionassociatedwith
horses.
HorseFrictionisveryusefulinhandicappingbecauseitisa
truemeasureoftheclosingcapabilityofahorse,obtained
fromthedatainahorsespaceline
Somehandicappersexaminethelengthsbehindhistoryofa
horseinarace,andbyseeingthenumberoflengthsbehind
thefrontrunnerdecreasing,concludethehorseisacloser.
Thatkindofreasoningisnotnecessarilytruebecausethe
decreaseinlengthsbehindthefrontrunnercouldbecausedby
thefrontrunnerslowingdown,ratherthanbythehorsein
questionclosingonhisown.
LowerFrictionnumbersindicateastrongerclosingcapabilityof
thehorse.Thismeansthehorseisbetterabletoretainhis
speed,which,ofcourse,isalsoameasureofhisstamina.The
Frictionvalueisobtainedwithoutreferencetootherhorsesin
theraceitisameasureoftheclosingcapabilityofthehorse
itself.
AnegativevalueofFrictionmeansthatthehorsespedup
duringtherace.Thisismorecommoninturfracesthanthose
racedonthedirt.
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BoxerNumber
Themathematicsandderivationofthisoverallhorseratingis
shownintheAddendumtoEngineeringAnalysisof
ThoroughbredRacing.Theratingisbasedonthecomparison
ofEarlySpeedandFriction,(closingability,)forastandard
horse,withthatofthehorsebeinghandicapped.Thehigher
thenumberthebetter.
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Form
Mostofthedataaboutahorseishistoricalinformingusabout
howahorsehasperformedinthepast.Acriticalaspectfor
successfulhandicappingistoassessthepresentformofa
horsesothatwemightknowwhattoexpectofthehorse
today.Withaspecialalgorithmusingracesandworkouts,
CompuTrakgivesyouaratingofthehorsespresentForm..At
times,whencombinedwithotherCompuTrakinformation,
Formcanbethedecidingfactorforchoosingthewinning
horse.
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SpeedRating
Aratingthathelpsdeterminewhetherthehorseranan
honestrace.UsingEarlySpeed,andTime,adjustedforRace

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Distance,theratingassesseswhetherahorsetrulytriedina
previousrace.Ifthisratingforahorseisappreciablylower
thanthatinotherraces,orwhencomparedwiththatofthe
otherhorses,theeffortthehorseputintotheracemaybe
suspect.
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HorseImprovement
Whileitisgenerallytruethathorseshaveaparticularrunning
style,frontrunner,closer,etc.,tosomeextent,ahorsecan
makeatradeoffbetweenearlyspeedandclosingcapability.
Withouttherebeinganyinherentimprovementincapability,
forexample,ahorsemightincreasehisearlyspeedatthe
priceofslowingdownsooner.Thereverseisalsotrue,the
horse,withoutanychangeininherentcapabilitymightstartoff
slowerbutmaintainthatearlyspeedlonger.
Oneindicationthatahorseistrulyimprovingincapabilityis
whenbothEarlySpeed,andclosingability,(Friction)are
improving.ByusingaformoftherelationshipbetweenEarly
SpeedandFriction,CompuTrakgivesyouaratingnumber
whichshows,fromoneracetothenext,whetherthehorsehas
improved,ordegradedincapabilityasdeterminedbythedata
fromthetworacesthatarecompared.
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MagicNumber
NamedtheMagicnumberbecauseofthewayitoftenpoints
toawinner.ItisderivedbycombiningtheBoxerNumberand
SpeedRating.
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OutputAppearance
CompuTrakhasthreeoutputscreensforviewingandprinting.
Theyare:theOddsLineandSummaryamoreextensive
reportandcharts(graphs).
TheOddsLineandSummaryproducessuccessfulhandicapping,
anditiseasytousetheoddsitproducesandthekey
informationinitssummarytochoosegoodrisktoreward
horsesonwhichtowager.
TheExtensivetexthasadditionalinformation,thatwillallow
youtodothemoreindepthhandicappingthatmaybe
necessaryfromtimetotime.Inadditiontothefundamental
CompuTrakdata,itincludesawealthofauxiliaryinformation,
passedthroughfromthebasicBRIS/DRFinputdata.(See
AppendixBofUser'sManual.)
Thethirdoutputbringscharts(graphs)toyou,andalso,for
convenience,includesmuchofthekeyinformationfromthe
Extensivereport.Thechartsareagraphicalrepresentationof
EarlySpeed,Friction,andBoxerNumber,pacelinebypaceline
foreveryhorse.,providingyouwithapictureofhowthe
horsescapabilityandoverallperformancehasbeenchanging
overtime.(SeeAppendixBofUser'sManual.)
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