CONSUMER

CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS AND SPENDING
INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD
QUARTER 4, 2014

2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 4 TH EDITION

GLOBAL CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE:
DOWN TWO POINTS
IN THE FOURTH
QUARTER 2014; UP
TWO POINTS YEAR
OVER YEAR

Global consumer confidence declined two index points to 96,

as every region regressed slightly in the fourth quarter of 2014

North America and Asia-Pacificthe only regions with

confidence scores above the 100-baseline readingeach
declined one index point

Confidence in Latin America declined most, falling three index

points; Europe declined two points, and Africa/Middle East
declined one point

The global job outlook fell three percentage points, while

personal finance perspectives and immediate spending
intentions declined one percentage point each

Recessionary sentiment fell sharply in North America, but rose

in Latin America and Europe

Confidence fell two points in the U.S., and China posted its first
decline in 2014

Global consumer confidence ended 2014 with an index score of 96a

decline of two index points from the previous quarter, which comes after
several quarters of positive momentum. While confidence fell slightly in
every region in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, the global
index closed the year up two points from last year (94 in Q4 2013). The
index, which has been on a slow and steady rise for about two years, is
still above a pre-recession level of 94 from third-quarter 2007.

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

Consumer confidence declined one point in North America (106) and

Asia-Pacific (106) in the fourth quarterthe only regions to score above
the baseline reading of 100. Confidence also decreased one point in
the Middle East/Africa (95), three points in Latin America (88) and two
points in Europe (76) from the previous quarter.

ABOUT THE GLOBAL

SURVEY METHODOLOGY
The findings in this survey are

Among the worlds biggest economies, consumer confidence decreased

two points in the U.S. (106), four points in China (107) and four points
in Japan (73). Conversely, confidence rose one point each in Germany
(98) and in the U.K. (94).

based on respondents with

Confidence in more than half of the global markets measured retreated

slightly in the fourth quarter with continued geopolitical tensions and
some slowing in emerging-market growth, said Louise Keely, senior
vice president, Nielsen and president, The Demand Institute. Latin
American markets, such as Brazil, saw particularly large declines in
confidence compared to last quarter and a year ago, reflective of the
economic slowdown there. While recovery in Europe continues to be
weak, and there is recent speculation of quantitative easing by the
European Central Bank, confidence is still up slightly in most economies
from a year ago, suggesting that fears of yet another eurozone recession
have not yet hit overall consumers outlook. In the U.S., where labor
markets have continued to recover, confidence is up significantly from
its level a year ago.

allows for tremendous scale

online access in 60 countries

(unless otherwise noted). While
an online survey methodology
and global reach, it provides a
perspective only on the habits
of existing Internet users, not
total populations. In developing
markets where online penetration
is still growing, audiences may
be younger and more affluent
than the general population of
that country. In addition, survey
responses are based on claimed
behavior rather than actual

In the latest online survey, conducted Nov. 10-28, 2014, consumer

confidence increased in 17 of 60 markets measured by Nielsen (28%),
compared with 39 markets (65%) in the third quarter. Indias score
of 129, the highest index among 60 markets, increased three points
from the third quarter. Italy reported the lowest score of 45, a quarterly
decline of two points. Ireland (90) showed the biggest improvement,
as confidence there rose six percentage points. Malaysia (89) logged
the biggest decline, as confidence there fell 10 points from the previous
quarter.

metered data.

The Nielsen consumer confidence index measures perceptions of local

job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions.
Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate
degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively. The Nielsen Global
Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, established
in 2005, measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending
intentions among more than 30,000 respondents with Internet access in
60 countries.

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

SURVEY
60 Countries 3-Month Trend
60 COUNTRIES
3-MONTHTREND

Q4-2014 Nielsen ConsumerQ4-2014

Confidence
Index
NIELSEN
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

-4

+1

+3

-2

IND

-5

TRY
129
INDI
A
120
120 INDON
ESIA
114 PHI
L
111
UN IPPIN
10
ES
TH ITED
7
CH AILA ARA
BE
ND
IN
MI
A
R

AT
ES
CO
NF

LES
S

-4

CZ

+4

-8

TV

LA

RE
P
EC
H

-2

0
+3

NORTH AMERICA

-4

-5

+4

-5

LATIN AMERICA

-4

-3

-7

EUROPE

+1

0
-2

COUN
INDEX

( -2 change from Q3-2014 )

UB

-5

IC

-4

+4

KO

D
ITE

ES

AT

ST

-1
-1

M
7
UN TNA
10 6
K
IE
V
0
AR
1
NM
6
E
0
1
D
ADA
103
CAN
BIA
I ARA
102
SAUD
102
AND
EW ZEAL
101 N
101 PAKISTAN

AY
RW
O
ND
A
N
EL T
IR
DS
92
YP
AN
EG HERL
90
T
90
NE
SIA
LAY
89
MA
RICA
H AF
89
SOUT
88
UANIA
87 LITH
ISRAEL
85

-1

-3
-1
-2

101 PERU
100 SIN
GAPOR
E
98
GER
MAN
97
Y
SW
95
ITZE
RLA
BR
94
ND
AZ
IL
9
C
93 4 U OLO
MB
N
IA
AU ITE
ST D K
IN
RA
GD
LI
OM
A

LI
C
I
A
80
CH
ILE
81
TU
RK
81
EY
EST
ON
82
IA
SWED
84
EN
85
AUSTRIA
85
MEXICO
85

-1

GLOBAL
AVERAGE

IN

+2

-2

-2

00

IS

96

E1

IM

MO
RE
CO
N

T
EN
ID

NT
DE
FI

-1

53

OV

IA

CE

RY

UG
A
54
EN L
IA 55
FR
AN
56
CE
FIN
57
LAN
D
SPAIN 61
63
ARGENT
INA 67
VENEZUELA 70
SLOVAKIA 70
D 72
POLAN
73
N
JAPA
75
RIA
76
A
G
BUL
M
77
U
I
LG
N
77
BE
A
IW IA
79
TA
N
A
A
I
M
S
RO US
R
SL

-2

+2

OV

PT

RB

GA

RT

SE

EE

UN

PO

IN

GR

RA

UK

-2

-3

AB

CR

+2

45
ITALY
48
EA
49
KOR
TH
TIA
52
SOU
OA
52

-3
-2

-2

+5

ES

TE

-5

EX

-10

+2

+4
-3
+1
-3
-6
-4
+1

-4

-3
+5

+6

AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST

ASIA-PACIFIC

Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology.
Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2014

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
PERFORMANCE IS
POSITIVE
Progress is slow, but it is indeed taking place in more than half of global
markets measured. Confidence scores in 39 of 60 markets improved
year over year. Eleven markets reported double-digit confidence climbs,
including the U.S. and the U.K., which rose 12 and 10 points, respectively.
Other notable increases from the previous year include Romania (+15),
India (+14), Egypt (+14) Ireland (+13) and Bulgaria (+13).
While all global consumer confidence indicators declined in the fourth
quarterjob prospects (-3 percentage points), personal finances (-1 pp)
and immediate spending intentions (-1 pp)year-over-year performance
was positive. Just under half of global respondents (49%) believed the job
market would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, up from 47%
in fourth-quarter 2013. Likewise, perceptions of personal finances slightly
improved to 56% (from 55% the previous year) and immediate spending
intentions rose to 40% (from 38%).
Year-over-year key indicator performance metrics improved most
dramatically in North America. Job prospect expectations rose 12
percentage points to 50%, the state of personal finances increased six
percentage points to 64% and immediate spending intentions jumped
eight percentage points to 51% in the 12-month period. Significant
improvements were also reported in the Middle East/Africa region: Job
prospects increased four percentage points, personal finances rose
seven points and immediate spending intentions jumped eight points,
compared to fourth-quarter 2013.
Latin America was the only region to report declining year-over-year
performance for all three metrics. Job prospect expectations declined 12
percentage points to 31%, the state of personal finances dropped three
percentage points to 58% and immediate spending intentions declined
two percentage points to 35%, from fourth-quarter 2013.
There was a small step back in the fourth quarter reflecting some
increased consumer apprehension, following improvements across the
whole of 2014, said Keely. Some regions of the world are still not out of
the woods, including the eurozone, while otherslike China and some
Latin American countriesmay be entering a period of slower growth in
2015.

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

CONFIDENCE INDICATORS IMPROVE

MOST IN NORTH AMERICA
PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT

JOB
PROSPECTS

IMMEDIATE
SPENDING
INTENTIONS

PERSONAL
FINANCES

Change from

Q4 2014

Q4 2013
64%

ASIAPACIFIC

62%
42%
28%

EUROPE

38%

MIDDLE
EAST/AFRICA

LATIN
AMERICA

NORTH
AMERICA

+2
+1

ROMANIA

77

+15

+3

EGYPT

90

+14

+1

INDIA

129

+14

BULGARIA

75

+13

IRELAND

90

+13

NETHERLANDS

89

+12

UNITED STATES

106

+12

SLOVENIA

56

+12

PORTUGAL

55

+11

ESTONIA

84

+11

UNITED
KINGDOM

94

+10

+4

43%
60%

+7
+8

39%

-12

31%
58%

-3
-2

35%
50%

+12

64%
51%

Q4 2014

Change
from
Q4 2013

N/C

+2

30%

COUNTRIES WITH BIGGEST YEARON-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INDEX INCREASES

+6
+8

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2014

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

RECESSIONARY
SENTIMENT
IMPROVED FOR
MOST IN 2014
Just over half of global respondents (53%) believed they were in a
recession in the fourth quarter, a one-percentage point improvement from
the previous quarter and a four-point improvement from the previous year
(Q4 2013). Regionally, a recessionary sentiment improved most in North
America, declining 10 percentage points from the previous quarter and 15
percentage points from the previous year to 53%.
Asia-Pacific respondents showed the lowest recessionary sentiment at
41%, a one-point decline from the previous quarter and a three-point
decline from the previous year. Latin American respondents reported the
highest recessionary sentiment at 73%, an increase of three percentage
points from the previous quarter and a rise of 12 points from the previous
year. Additionally, two-thirds of European (66%) and Middle East/Africa
(69%) respondents still believed they were in recession.
In total, 58% of global markets measured reported a year-over-year
recessionary-sentiment improvement. Ireland reported the biggest
21-percentage point improvement from 87% in fourth-quarter 2013 to
66% in fourth-quarter 2014. Other notable year-over-year, double-digit
improvements were in the U.S. and the U.K. (16 pp), and India improved
by 15 percentage points. Conversely, a recessionary sentiment worsened in
Brazil by 22 percentage points, from 51% in fourth-quarter 2013 to 73% in
fourth-quarter 2014 and in Chile by 45 percentage points.
China (22%), Norway (25%) and Singapore (27%) had the lowest
recessionary sentiment, while more than 90% of respondents in Croatia
(97%), Italy (96%), Ukraine (94%), Venezuela (92%) and Serbia (91%)
still believed they were mired in recession in the fourth quarter.
Global discretionary spending/saving intentions were either flat or
declined slightly in the fourth quarter. Almost half (48%) plan to save their
spare cash, about three-in-10 expect to spend on holiday/vacations (34%),
new clothes (34%) and out-of-home entertainment (30%). One-fourth of
global respondents plan to buy new technology (24%) and pay off debts
(25%). One-fifth expect to spend on home improvements (21%) and
invest in stocks (21%), and one-in-10 plan to save for retirement (10%).
Globally, 13% of respondents say they have no spare cash.

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVES FOR MANY

BIGGEST YEAR-ON-YEAR RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVEMENTS
PERCENT BELIEVING THEY ARE IN RECESSION AND CHANGE FROM LAST YEAR
Change from

Q4 2014

Q4 2013

66%

IRELAND

-21

VIETNAM

58%

-19

50%
UNITED STATES

55%

CZECH REPUBLIC

55%
UNITED KINGDOM

-18

-16
-15

LATVIA

-15

67%

-14

55%

SLOVAKIA

-13

POLAND

65%

-13

48%
NETHERLANDS

34%
ROMANIA

NEW ZEALAND

64%

NORTH AMERICA

53% -15

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

69% -6

EUROPE

66% -4

-16

47%

INDIA

NORTH AMERICA IMPROVED MOST,

LATIN AMERICA WORSENED

ASIA-PACIFIC

LATIN AMERICA

41%

-3

73% +12

-12
-11

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2014

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

NORTH AMERICAN
CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE IS
STILL STRONG
U.S. consumer confidence decreased two index points in the fourth
quarter to a score of 106the first decline in 2014, but a 12-point
improvement from the previous year. Confidence also declined in
Canada, falling one point to an index level of 102 from the previous
quarter.
While all U.S. consumer confidence indicators decreased slightly in the
fourth quarter, there were significant year-over-year improvements: Job
prospect confidence increased 13 percentage points to 50%, personal
finance confidence increased six percentage points to 64% and the
percentage of respondents who believe now is a good time to spend
increased nine percentage points to 52%, from fourth-quarter 2013.
Despite the most recent declines in the U.S. for job prospects and
personal finances, consumers appear to be more upbeat than other
regions going into 2015, said Keely. Declining unemployment, falling
oil prices and the continued low interest rates together place consumers
in the worlds largest economy in a better position to spend than in
recent years.
In the region, quarter-on-quarter discretionary spending intentions
decreased five percentage points for buying new clothes (27%) and four
percentage points for spending on out-of-home entertainment (18%).
Those planning to save for retirement also declined six percentage
points to 13%. Four-in-10 respondents (40%) plan to put money into
savings accounts, down from 42% the previous quarter.

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

U.S. REPORTS STRONG YEAR-ON-YEAR IMPROVEMENTS FOR

ALL CONFIDENCE INDICATORS
PERCENT SAYING THE NEXT 12 MONTHS WILL BE GOOD/EXCELLENT

UNITED STATES
Q4 2014

CANADA

CHANGE
FROM
Q4 2013

Q4 2014

+13
50%

+3
JOB PROSPECTS

54%

+6
64%

+4
PERSONAL FINANCES

62%

+9
52%

CHANGE
FROM
Q4 2013

IMMEDIATE SPENDING
INTENTIONS

43%

N/C

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2014

10

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

PROGRESS IN
EUROPE REMAINS
SLOW
Clouds of pessimism returned to the eurozone in the fourth quarter,
with confidence declining in 20 of 32 markets. Only Denmark, with
a consumer confidence score of 103, had an optimistic reading, and
Germany and Switzerland were the only two countries where half of
respondents (49% and 56%, respectively) were optimistic about job
prospects in the next 12 months.
Confidence in Germany, the biggest economy in the region, increased
one index point to a score of 98a continuation of small upticks that
have occurred over the past several quarters to a near-baseline score,
which stands in stark contrast to the regions average index score of 76.
Looking back over the last 12 months, the stable German labor market
likely had a big influence on the countrys consumer confidence score,
said Ingo Schier, managing director, Nielsen Germany. A combination
of factors in Germany boosted confidence in Europes largest economy
in 2014. A steadily declining unemployment rate combined with low
interest rates and rising incomes lifted consumer sentiment and
willingness to spend. In the long run, while the geopolitical crises in
the Ukraine or Syria are top of mind, they are not yet affecting German
consumer confidence.
The biggest regional index increase compared to the third quarter came
from Ireland (+6 to 90). Conversely, Russias index declined eight points
to a score of 79 after three consecutive quarters of increases. Italy (45)
and France (57) also declined, dropping two points each, compared to
the third quarter.
In Ireland, 2014 has been a year of recovery, said Matt Clark,
commercial director, Nielsen Ireland. In November, unemployment
figures fell for the 36th consecutive month and latest annualized
GDP growth is a healthy 3.5%, which is out-performing the rest of the
eurozone. While fast-moving consumer goods sales are still sluggish,
these positive indicators together with an October budget that put a
little more money in peoples pockets has lifted confidence and eased a
strong culture of saving.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INDEX DECREASES IN 63% OF
EUROPEAN MARKETS IN Q4
CHANGE
FROM
Q3 2014

INCREASE
DECREASE

INDEX
Q4 2014

NO CHANGE

-1

103 |

Denmark

+1

98 |

Germany

-3

97 |

Switzerland

+1

94 |

United Kingdom

-3

92 |

Norway

+6

90 |

Ireland

+2

89 |

Netherlands

+1

87 |

Lithuania

-7

85 |

Israel

-4

85 |

Austria

-5

85 |

Sweden

+4

84 |

Estonia

-5

82 |

Turkey

+3

81 |

Latvia

80 |

Czech Republic

-8

79 |

Russia

+4

77 |

Romania

-5

76 |

Belgium

-1

75 |

Bulgaria

-1

72 |

Poland

-2

70 |

Slovakia

-2

63 |

Spain

-3

61 |

Finland

-2

57 |

France

-2

56 |

Slovenia

+2

55 |

Portugal

-2

54 |

Hungary

-3

53 |

Greece

-5

52 |

Ukraine

+1

52 |

Serbia

49 |

Croatia

-2

45 |

Italy

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence

& Spending Intentions, Q4 2014

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

11

In Russia, the economic and political tensions had a fairly limited

impact prior to November and December, but the situation dramatically
changed with the national currency considerably losing its value and
inflation reaching new heights, said Kyriakos Kyriakou, managing
director, Nielsen Eastern Europe. Purchasing power and disposable
income of Russian consumers will continue to shrink, and we expect the
situation to worsen in the first half of 2015 when prices for consumer
goods will grow reflecting the ruble devaluation. Price as a purchase
motivator will become stronger as consumers switch to cheaper brands
and cut down on non-essentials.

12

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

CONFIDENCE IN
ASIA-PACIFIC IS
STILL HIGH DESPITE
RECENT DECLINES
Consumer confidence in Asia-Pacific increased in only three of 14 markets
measured in the fourth quarter, but nine of 14 countries remain at or above
the 100-optimism baseline. Confidence in India (129) increased three
points, posting the highest index in the region and of the 60 countries
measured. Chinas index fell four points to 107 in the fourth quarter, which
comes after four consecutive quarters at 111.
Despite the four-point decline, Chinese consumers remain optimistic
about their job prospects, personal finances and their desire to spend in
the coming year relative to their global peers, said Yan Xuan, president,
Nielsen China. Thanks to the concentration of a number of shopping
holidays in the fourth quarter such as Singles Day, Christmas and New
Year, consumer purchase intentions for both online and offline registered
strong readings, especially in higher tier cities, proving again that online
shopping festivals created new vitality in the retail market, not only for
online merchants, but for offline channels as well, Yan Xuan added.
Malaysia reported the most dramatic consumer confidence decline in the
region, falling 10 points to 89the lowest score since 2009. Confidence
also declined five points in Indonesia (120) and four points each in
Australia (93), Japan (73) and South Korea (48).
In India, 2014 ended with the encouraging note of increased consumer
confidence levels across all key indicators, said Piyush Mathur, president,
Nielsen India Region. The trends in the finance sector also reflect this
uptick in confidence, with credit card penetration rising, home loan
disbursement higher than in the third quarter, and improved auto sales.
The overall fast-moving consumer goods industry is looking to grow
by double digits in 2015 based on lower inflation rates and increased
consumer sentiment. Consumers are also hopeful for an improved
economic environment with policies and reforms being set in place by the
new government.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INDEX DECREASES IN 71% OF
ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q4

CHANGE
FROM
Q3 2014

INCREASE
DECREASE

INDEX
Q4 2014

NO CHANGE

129

India

-5

120

Indonesia

120

Philippines

-2

111

Thailand

-4

107

China

107

Hong Kong

106

Vietnam

-1

101

New Zealand

-3

100

Singapore

-4

93

Australia

-10

89

Malaysia

-2

77

Taiwan

-4

73

Japan

-4

48

South Korea

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer

Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2014

In Malaysia, the decline in confidence was expected, but the severity

was more than anticipated, said Richard Hall, country manager, Nielsen
Malaysia. It appears that consumers are turning their attention to the
goods and service tax introduction due for implementation in April 2015
and its potential impact on prices and cost of living. This is contributing
to uncertainty in a market where consumer good sales are flat and some
retailers are stating negative like-for-like growths in stores.

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

13

L ATIN AMERICAN
CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES A
DOWNWARD TREND
Confidence in the Latin America region decreased three index points
to a score of 88 in the fourth quarter, as scores fell in five of the seven
countries measured. Peru was the only country in the region with an
improved score, rising four points to 101the highest score in the region
and outperforming Brazil (95) for the first time since 2011. Confidence in
Brazil dropped six points quarterlythe biggest decline and lowest score
for the country since 2011. Mexico (85) decreased three points, Colombia
(94) and Chile (81) decreased four points each and Argentina (67) dropped
one point in the fourth quarter. Venezuelas (70) score was flat from the
previous quarter.
The outlook for job prospects declined in three of seven Latin American
countries and perceptions of personal finances fell in every country except
Peru. A recessionary sentiment worsened by seven percentage points in
both Brazil (73%) and Chile (59%)the highest levels since the start of
tracking this sentiment in 2008.
Brazils confidence score is a reflection of high levels of uncertainty
about the economic environment, said Luis Arjona, cluster leader,
Nielsen Brazil. In addition to the expected low growth levels in 2015,
inflation has remained above the official targets, and there are growing
concerns about increasing unemployment rates. On the other hand, a
newly-appointed economic team has recently taken measures to restore
confidence by increasing interest rates to subdue inflation and promising
to restore greater fiscal discipline. Reports of corruption at Petrobras, the
largest Brazilian company, and the steep drop in oil prices, have likely
further contributed to market uncertainty and overall consumer sentiment.
Relatively low consumer confidence scores should remain in the near
future until the region embarks on a clear path to economic recovery.
Discretionary spending intentions showed the most dramatic pull back of
all the regions, with decreases of five percentage points for new clothes
(24%) and home improvements (15%), four points for new technology
(16%), three points for saving (28%) and two points for out-of-home
entertainment (30%). Almost one-in-five respondents (18%) said they have
no spare cash, a quarterly increase of two percentage points.

14

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

DECREASES IN 71% OF LATINAMERICAN MARKETS IN Q4
INCREASE
CHANGE
FROM Q3
2014

DECREASE

NO CHANGE

INDEX
Q4 2014

PERU

101
BRAZIL

-6

95
COLOMBIA

-4

94
MEXICO

-3

85
CHILE

-4

81
VENEZUELA

70
ARGENTINA

-1

67
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer
Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2014

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

THE MIDDLE EAST/

AFRICA REGION
SHOWS SLOW BUT
STABLE PROGRESS
Consumer confidence increased in three of five countries measured
in the Middle East/Africa region in the fourth quarter. At 114, United
Arab Emirates had the highest index in the region, an increase of two
points from the third quarter. Confidence also increased five points in
Egypt to 90 and two points in South Africa to 88. Conversely, confidence
decreased three points in Saudi Arabia to 102 and two points in Pakistan
to 101.
Egypts consumer confidence score has been climbing for the last two
quarters, and we see a direct correlation to the countrys economic
growth during that same period, said Tamer El Araby, managing director
for Egypt, Levant and North Africa. As Egypt approaches the confidence
baseline score of 100, the next challenge will be to improve how people
perceive their personal finances. This could lead to a point when
Egyptian consumers no longer focus on immediate living requirements,
but rather look forward to potential future growth.
Regionally, quarter-on-quarter discretionary spending intentions in the
fourth quarter increased four percentage points each for new clothes
(27%) and out-of-home entertainment (23%), two percentage points
each for paying off debts (20%) and home improvements (17%) and
one percentage point for retirement (6%). Twenty-two percent of Middle
East/Africa respondents said they have no spare cash, which was flat
from the previous quarter and the highest percentage of any region.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN
UAE REMAINS STRONG IN Q4
INCREASE
CHANGE
FROM Q3
2014

DECREASE

NO CHANGE

INDEX
Q4 2014

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

114
SAUDI ARABIA

-3

102
PAKISTAN

-2

101
EGYPT

90
SOUTH AFRICA

88
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer
Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2014

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

15

CONFIDENCE
RISES IN
SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA
Consumer confidence increased four index points in Nigeria in the
fourth quarter to a score of 127the highest score of the three countries
measured in Nielsens mobile survey for sub-Saharan Africa. Confidence
also increased eight points in Kenya (113) and five points in Ghana (102)
from the third quarter.
The three countries were added to Nielsens measurement of
consumer confidence in the first quarter of 2014 using a mobile survey
methodology, which differs from the online methodology used to report
consumer confidence and spending intentions for the other 60 countries
outlined in this report. As such, the three sub-Saharan African markets
are not included in the global or Middle East/Africa averages discussed
throughout this report.
The perceived outlook for job prospects increased 12 percentage points
in Kenya (62%), six percentage points in Nigeria (64%) and remained
flat in Ghana (42%). Eighty-two percent of Nigerian respondents
were confident about their personal finances, but just over half (56%)
believed now was a good time to spend. In Kenya, 69% of respondents
believed money matters were good or excellent, and 41% were confident
in their current spending capacityan increase of five percentage points
from the third quarter. Likewise, 66% of respondents in Ghana were
optimistic about their finances, and 36% were confident about spending.
The majority of respondents in the three countries (70% in Ghana,
61% in Nigeria and 59% in Kenya) did not have spare cash, a level that
decreased in Kenya and Nigeria from the third quarter. Among those
who did have discretionary funds, saving was a priority for 89% in
Kenya, 86% in Nigeria, and 85% in Ghana, followed by spending on
home improvement projects (73% in Kenya, 73% in Nigeria and 71%
in Ghana).

16

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH

IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IN 2014

Q1 2014

GHANA

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

97

103

97

102

110

111

105

113

120

121

123

127

KENYA

NIGERIA

Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence & Spending Intentions, Q4 2014
Sub-Saharan Africa countries use a mobile methodolgy

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

17

COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY

ASIA-PACIFIC
MARKET

EUROPE
INTERNET
PENETRATION

L ATIN AMERICA

MARKET

INTERNET
PENETRATION

MARKET

INTERNET
PENETRATION

Australia

87%

Finland

92%

Argentina

75%

China

46%

France

83%

Brazil

54%

Hong Kong

75%

Germany

86%

Chile

67%

India

16%

Greece

60%

Colombia

62%

Indonesia

22%

Hungary

73%

Mexico

44%

Japan

86%

Ireland

78%

Peru

39%

Malaysia

67%

Israel

71%

Venezuela

45%

New Zealand

87%

Italy

59%

Philippines

41%

Latvia

75%

Singapore

73%

Lithuania

69%

South Korea

85%

Netherlands

94%

Taiwan

80%

Norway

95%

Egypt

50%

Thailand

30%

Poland

65%

Pakistan

15%

Vietnam

44%

Portugal

62%

Saudi Arabia

61%

Romania

50%

South Africa

49%

Russia

61%

88%

Serbia

57%

United Arab
Emirates

Slovakia

79%

Slovenia

73%

Spain

75%

Sweden

95%

Switzerland

87%

EUROPE
MARKET

INTERNET
PENETRATION

Austria

81%

Belgium

82%

Bulgaria

53%

Croatia

71%

Czech Republic

74%

Turkey

46%

Denmark

95%

United Kingdom

90%

Estonia

80%

Ukraine

42%

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

MARKET

INTERNET
PENETRATION

NORTH AMERICA
MARKET

INTERNET
PENETRATION

Canada

91%

United States

84%

Source: Internet World Stats, December 31, 2013

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
MARKET

18

MOBILE PENETRATION*

Ghana

99%

Kenya

68%

Nigeria

64%

*Based on mobile handsets divided by population

Source: CIA World Factbook, 2012

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending
Intentions was conducted Nov. 10-28, 2014 and polled more than
30,000 online consumers in 60 countries throughout Asia-Pacific,
Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America.
The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country based
on its Internet users and is weighted to be representative of Internet
consumers. It has a margin of error of 0.6%. This Nielsen survey is
based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet
penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting
standard of 60% Internet penetration or an online population of 10
million for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index
is compiled from a separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500
respondents in China. The sub-Saharan African countries in this study
are compiled from a separate mobile methodology survey among 1,600
respondents in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. The Nielsen Global Survey,
which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established
in 2005.

ABOUT NIELSEN
Nielsen N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and measurement
company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer
information, television and other media measurement, online
intelligence and mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence in
approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA
and Diemen, the Netherlands.
For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and
the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN
Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or
registered trademarks of their respective companies. 15/8379

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company

19

20

QUARTER 4 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT