Quantitative Risk Assessment in

Chevron
Use in Decision-Making Involving Major Risks
Rod Travis
Team Lead, HES Risk Management
Chevron Energy Technology Company

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

Presentation Outline

Risk, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and risk tolerance criteria

Use of QRA in Land Use Planning around Major Hazard Facilities
QRA Techniques

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk and Quantitative Risk Assessment Defined

Risk A measure of human injury, environmental damage, or economic

loss in terms of both the incident likelihood and the magnitude of the
injury, damage, or loss or the probability that a hazard will result in a
specified level of loss

Risk is defined mathematically as:

Risk = [Consequences] x [Likelihood]

[Severity] x [Frequency]
Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) The systematic development of
numerical estimates of the expected frequency and consequence of
potential accidents associated with a facility or operation based on
engineering evaluation and mathematical techniques.

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Tolerance and Risk Tolerance Criteria

Risk Tolerance
A willingness by society as a whole to live with a risk so as to secure
certain benefits in the confidence that the risk is one that is worth taking
and that it is being properly controlled. However, it does not imply that
everyone would agree without reservation to take this risk or have it
imposed on them. [United Kingdom, Health and Safety Executive, 2001]

Risk tolerance criteria

A predetermined measure of risk used to aid decisions about whether
further efforts to reduce the risk are warranted.

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Individual Risk

Individual Risk represents the likelihood that a

person will sustain a fatal injury by all of the
hazardous events to which he or she may be
exposed. Presented as a frequency number
(fatalities/year). Individual risk ensures that each
person is not exposed to an aggregation of different
risk exposures, the sum of which leads to an overall
high risk exposure for the individual.
Specifies an upper limit amount of
10-4 fatalities/year for individual
members of the public exposed to
an industrial hazard

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

Example of
Individual
Risk Criteria

Individual Risk Criteria Examples

Singapore
The 5 x 10-5 per year Individual Risk Contour remains within the fenceline
The 5 x 10-6 per year Individual Risk Contour extends into Industrial
Developments only
The 1 x 10-6 per year Individual Risk Contour extends into Commercial and
Industrial Developments only
Source Singapore Pollution Control Department Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment, April 2007

Western Australia
A risk level in residential zones of 1 x 10-6 per year or less is so small as to be
acceptable to EPA
A risk level in sensitive areas of 5 x 10-7 per year or less is so small as to be
acceptable to EPA
Risk level from Industrial facilities should not exceed 5 x 10-5 per year at the
boundary
Source - Guidance for Risk Assessment and Management: Offsite individual risk from Hazardous Industrial Plant, No.2
WA EPA, July 2000

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

Societal Risk

Societal Risk represents the number of people who may

be killed by large, single events and how often those
events might occur. Presented as F-N Curves (Plots
depicting the frequency F of exceeding N or more
fatalities) which set:

Major
Hazard

Risk criteria for the public

Risk criteria for employees

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

Total Number of Exposed People

Societal Risk Criteria Examples

F, Cummulative Frequency of N or more Fatalities

1.00E-02
Guidelines for Developing
Quantitative Safety Risk
Criteria, CCPS, 2009

1.00E-03

1.00E-04

1.00E-05

1.00E-06

1.00E-07

1.00E-08

1.00E-09
10

100
N, Fatalities
UK

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Dutch

Hong Kong

1000

Victoria

NSW
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Consequence vs. Risk-Based Approach to Land Use

Planning
Consequence (Deterministic) approach uses only the consequence
variable in the risk equation. Theoretically this approach would
ensure no fatalities will occur as the result of facility operations, but
typically results in impractical and unenforceable requirements
Examples All airplanes must be designed to never crash or no toxic
release shall never pass a facility fence line

Risk approach uses both the consequence and the likelihood

parameters of the risk equation, taking into account the significant
safeguards in place that lower the frequency of major
accidents/releases and align the risk with overall societal nor
Example Require an exclusion zone where the risk of fatality to any
individual exceeds the chance of 1 in 10,000 years

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

Consequence (Deterministic) Approach

Momentum Jet Cloud

CONCENTRATION CONTOURS: OVERHEAD VIEW
Wellpad I Pipeline

400.0

300.0

50mm Hole
Momentum Jet Cloud
CONCENTRATION CONTOURS: OVERHEAD VIEW
Wellpad I Pipeline

400.0

100.0

300.0

0.0

Full Bore Rupture

200.0

-100.0

Crosswind Distance (meters)

Crosswind Distance (meters)

200.0

-200.0

-300.0

-400.0
0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

100.0

0.0

-100.0

Downwind Distance (meters)

-200.0

1000 ppm Hydrogen Sulfide

100 ppm Hydrogen Sulfide

CANARY by Quest

casename=WPI1AA3L
windspeed = 1.00 m/s
F stability
Thu Aug 18 10:33:38 2011

-300.0

-400.0
0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

Downwind Distance (meters)

1000 ppm Hydrogen Sulfide
100 ppm Hydrogen Sulfide

CANARY by Quest

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

10

Likelihood of Different Consequences

100%
90%
80%

95% of releases from all

other equipment are less
than 50mm equivalent
diameter

% of Hole size

70%
60%
50%

80% of releases from

pressure vessels are
less than 50mm
equivalent diameter

40%
30%

88% of releases
from piping are
less than 50mm
equivalent
diameter

20%
Offshore Hydrocarbon Releases
2001 2008, HSE RR672, 2008

10%
0%

50

100

150

200

250

300

Hole Size, mm
COMPRESSORS, CENTRIFUGAL

COMPRESSORS, RECIPROCATING

FILTERS

HEAT EXCHANGERS, HC IN SHELL

HEAT EXCHANGERS, HC IN TUBE

HEAT EXCHANGERS, PLATE

FIN FAN COOLERS

INSTRUMENTS

PIG LAUNCHERS/RECEIVERS

PRESSURE VESSEL

PUMPS, CENTRIFUGAL

PUMPS, RECIPROCATING

PIPES, VALVES & FLANGES =<3"

PIPES, VALVES & FLANGES >3"

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11

Why Chevron Use a Risk-Based Approach

Many countries worldwide have recognized that a consequence

based approach results in land use requirements for industrial
developments that are not sustainable.
This is particularly true of densely populated regions such as UK &
Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong and the urban areas of Australia and
the risk based approach is therefore enshrined in law in these
countries
Chevron (in common with the majority of international energy
companies) has adopted a risk based approach as its default position
for the management of hazards associated with its operations

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

12

Governments that Require (or Use) QRA and Set (or

Use) Risk Criteria
Australia

Netherlands

Brazil

Norway

Canada

Singapore

China (Hong Kong)

Switzerland

Czech Republic

United Kingdom (UK)

Demark

US Department of
Energy/Nuclear Regulatory
Commission

France
Hungary

Predominant Worldwide Practice

is to Use a Risk-Based Approach
for Land Use Planning
2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

13

Some Companies/Industries Using QRA for Risk

Decision-Making (Not Exhaustive)

Oil Industry

Chemical Industry

BP

Eastman Chemical Company

Chevron

Albemarle

Conoco/Phillips

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.

ExxonMobil

Rohm and Haas Company, retired

Norske Hydro

Solutia, Celanese

Shell

Dow Chemical

Statoil

Lyondell Basell Industries

Total

DuPont

Pharmaceutical Industry

Croda, Inc.

Merck

Intel

Eli Lilly and Company

Aerospace/Defense/Nuclear

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14

QRA Process
Hazard Identification
(IHAZID process)

Walkthrough
PFDs
Process descriptions

IHAZID

PHA

Scenario
Development

PFDs / P&IDs
Historical data
Ignition models

Frequency
Analysis
Investigate
Further Risk
Reduction
Measures

Event Trees which

take consideration of:

Weather conditions
Population distributions
Plant layout
Fatality models
Protective equipment
Emergency response

No

Release modeling
Dispersion modeling
Explosion models
Fire models

Consequence
Analysis

Risk
Assessment

Are risks reduced

to a level that
is as low as is
reasonable?
Yes

Risk Tolerance
Criteria

FN Curve (Societal Risk)

Individual Risk Contours
Good Practice
Codes & Standards

Document Plan to
Implement agreed risk
reduction measures
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15

How Do We Quantify Risk?

Primary means of quantification is through event trees

These take an initiating event (e.g. -inch release from compressor
suction scrubber) and develop it into all possible outcomes unignited,
early ignition leading to jet fire, delayed ignition in open leading to flash
fire, delayed ignition in congested / confined region leading to explosion.

Supported by fault trees, FMEA, part counts, reliability analysis and

ignition modeling to quantify frequency and branch probabilities
Supported by dispersion analysis, fire analysis, explosion analysis
and vulnerability assessments to quantify consequence

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

16

Event Frequency Determination

Loss of
Containment
Event / year

Probability of
Hole Size

Small

Ignition?

Yes

Delayed Ignition?

Yes

Explosion?

Yes

Explosion

No

Flash Fire

No

Jet Fire

No
Medium

Yes

Toxic Exposure
Yes

Yes

Explosion

No

Flash Fire

No

Jet Fire

No
Large

Yes

Toxic Exposure
Yes

Yes

Explosion

No

Flash Fire

No

Jet Fire

No
Massive

Yes

Toxic Exposure
Yes

No
No

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

Outcome

Yes

Explosion

No

Flash Fire
Jet Fire
Toxic Exposure

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Vulnerability Determination

Flammables

Toxics

Probability of Fatality =

Probability of Fatality =

a + b(Q4/3t)

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

a + bLn(Cnt)

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QRA Approach
Determination of Risk Contours

2013 Chevron U.S.A. Inc. All rights reserved.

19

Risk Measures

Risk Contours
Probability of fatality per year to an
individual located on the spot 24 hours per day/365 days per year
Graphical representation of the
potential impact zone of hazards
Used primarily for public exposure since people living in close proximity to a
facility can be continuously exposed

FN Curve
Measure of the risk of incidents which can cause multiple fatalities
Typically used to gauge the acceptability of having large congregations of
people exposed to hazards (for example, in schools, hospitals, etc. or during
turnarounds or in occupied buildings on site)

Individual Risk per Annum (IRPA)

Likelihood of fatality per year for an individual based on their exposure to that
risk. Used primarily for workers who are only exposed to the risk when at
work
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Typical QRA Output

1.00E-02
1.00E-03
1.00E-04
1.00E-05
1.00E-06
1.00E-07

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21

Further Reading

Guidelines for Developing Quantitative Safety Risk Criteria, CCPS,

2009
Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis, CCPS,
2000

Reducing Risks, Protecting People, Health and Safety Executive,

2001

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Q&A

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