Response to Meles Zenawi 5/28/10 12:58 PM

Analysis
Response to Meles Zenawi
By Eskinder Nega | May 28, 2010

The American Election

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Imprinted in popular imagination is the image of Meles Zenawi quivering, focused,

and clearly at one of his heights of oratory as he ranted against the Algiers
Technical Arrangement in one of his most -- he has several -- press conferences.
“We will not relent until Shabiya (the Eritrean government) leaves our land without
any precondition. No negotiation before then. We reject the Technical
Arrangement put forth by the international community to avert war.”

Later, when his party’s leadership imploded, which pitted the core senior
leadership against him, his ardent allies came to his defense by citing his brilliant
performance at the press conference depicted above. “It tipped the balance of
public opinion in favor of the war,” they said, refuting his opponents charge that he
is intuitively inclined against patriotism. The double-tongued
Meles Zenawi
What his defenders did not say, but which he was to admit at a future date, was that he did not believe
in what he had said. He was on the record (secretly) in support of the Technical Arrangement. He was
in effect lying when he passionately raged against it at the press conference.

Of course, his narrative is slightly different, insisting

that he did it as a “disciplined solider” of his party;
since his duty is to express his party’s, not his,
perspective. That may very well be true, at least
from the perspective of his Leninist roots. But what
has lingered in the back of the public’s mind ever
since has been the passion with which he spoke in
favor of something he did not believe in -- the power
of his pretense.

Meles is unquestionably an intelligent man. It is

unfathomable for anyone to seriously ponder whether
he actually believes that the credibility of Ethiopia’s
electoral process hangs only on the process and not
the outcome—though admittedly that is the case in
some other countries. The dynamics of Ethiopia’s
history, and not merely its distant era but no less its
violence ridden recent past, is dead against the one party dominated democracy in ethnically and
religiously homogenous Japan that Meles oft cites to rationalize the dominance of his party. Or is
Meles convinced, as Francis Fukuyama was immediately after the fall of the Berlin Wall, that history
has ended with the triumph of the EPRDF ,and historical cleavages do not matter any more? That
they have—to borrow a renowned Marxist phrase—withered away, paving the way for one party to
garner 99% of parliamentary seats in multi-ethnic and multi religious Ethiopia?

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Response to Meles Zenawi 5/28/10 12:58 PM

Very unlikely. Perhaps some in his party’s top leadership may think so; but not sophisticated Meles.
He is far too smart, far too well read; and more notably, far too cynical. The Meles Zenawi that was
citing Japan and Sweden to journalists on Wednesday in support of his party’s outrageous margin of
victory is the same Meles that years ago publicly tore apart the merits of the Technical Arrangement
that he cherished in secret. The only difference is that his power of speech is somewhat diminished
this time. Asked by a journalist how he feels about the absence of the opposition in parliament, he
replied offhandedly, unable to find words for the lengthy rhetoric that he is fond of : “ I feel nothing”

But feel he does, as was evident when he responded to another journalist who had queried about an
election related issue. “ We thought we would get anything between 50 and 75 % of the vote,” he said,
with a tone that was less sure and firm than usual. “We neither projected nor expected to get 99%,” he
added, almost thinking out aloud about his overzealous cadres, who have now pushed him beyond the
pale in the international arena; where he was until Monday—the day the “election results” were
announced -- a rising star.

And for the first time in two decades it seems that his relationship with one of the powerful actors in
the international arena, the Americans, is poised to suffe -- though it is not clear to what extent. Meles
thinks he has the edge, though. “Ours is a two way relationship,” he said at Wednesday’s press
conference, confident as ever. “ Our relationship is not reliant on the interest of only one party.” But he
may be overestimating how much the Americans continue to value the information they acquire about
Somalia from his -- in the words of the Economist magazine -- “bare knuckled security.” Johnnie
Carson, for example, the low key Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, acknowledged that the
election was “calm and peaceful”, but used uncharacteristically strong words to highlight his
government’s displeasure: “We note with some degree of remorse that the election were not up to
international standards.” The State Department was even bolder: “Steps to be taken to level the
playing field( for the opposition) will influence the future direction of U.S.- Ethiopian relations.” Not
exactly the words of a party that is worried about the effects of a severed relationship. But Meles
promised “not to grovel to get aid” on Wednesday; a message he delivered in exactly the same words
to the EU, too.

“Our understanding was that EU Observers were here to report only on the raw facts of the election,
which they did well,” said Meles to an Ethiopia journalist who asked about the observers’ preliminary
report. “But like we feared they have transgressed their mandate, and are dabbling in politics.” And he
went on to speculate about the mission’s motive. “They are trying to create room for political meddling
in the future,’ he said conspiratorially. Nonetheless, he is confident that his relationship with the EU,
which, contrary to the precedent set over the past six decades all over Africa, believes that aid is
crucial in reducing poverty, as opposed to rapid economic development, will not suffer. “The EU
Foreign Minister has sent us a message, and she assures us the relationship will continue,” said
Meles. Which way the relationship goes, however, is also reliant on how the opposition is perceived,
say diplomats. “A strong and viable opposition is a strong incentive for us to consider change,” said
one of them to me.

Meles’ legendary temper, while mostly subdued on Wednesday, flared briefly, ignited by a question
about Anna Gomez, EU’s chief observer in the 2005 elections. “( Berman) and Anna Gomez are
fundamentally different. Anna Gomez is a lair. I have some respect for this year’s observers. I have
absolutely no respect for her,’ he lashed out at her, his voiced slightly raised. “ She is now openly
advocating armed struggle as the only viable means to bring change to Ethiopia. She has become a
war-monger.” Needless to say, a charge that is utterly fallacious.

Little noticed, but of significance, was the question he was asked about the opposition’s alleged result
in Tigary. “They got more than I expected,” he said, no doubt a bit petrified. The non- EPRDF vote,
allegedly about 17,000 out of a total of 116,000 in the preliminary results, is proportionately more than
the opposition’s alleged results in Oromia and Amhara. Perhaps the clearest message form the
electorate—suppressed though it is---that EPRDF’S hegemony is resented; and menacingly, brewing

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Response to Meles Zenawi 5/28/10 12:58 PM

just below the surface.

But the bombshell of the press conference was to come when he was asked if he foresees the day
when the EPRDF becomes an opposition party in his lifetime. ( He is in his mid 50s, and expects to
live several decades more.) “ I can’t be sure,” he said, calmly and seriously. I will spare you the
absurd rhetoric that ensued. And here is where I think a citizen’s response to Meles, from me, one of
tens of millions of Ethiopians who aspire to nothing more than see the day when our votes will not be
stolen in our lifetime, is warranted: You will be mightily surprised in your lifetime, Sir!!! Mark my
words!!!

Previous Articles

----
Western Embassies and the Last Days of Election 2010
Poll: EPRDF loses debate
Dr Beyene Petros, Professor Mesfin ...and Election 2010
Meles Zenawi, Lidetu Ayalew and Election 2010
The past of Seye Abraha et al in perspective
Notes from an Interstate Bus: A Farmer on Election 2010
Welcome to Ethiopia's Election 2010: The Case of Adwa

Also on Election 2010: Part I | Part II | Part III | Part IV

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The writer, prominent Ethiopian journalist Eskinder Nega, has been in and out of prison several times
while he was editor of one of several newspapers shut down during the 2005 crackdown. After nearly
five years in the limbo, Eskinder, his award-winning wife Serkalem Fassil, and other colleagues have
yet to win government permission to return to their jobs in the publishing industry. Email:
serk27@gmail.com

Ethiomedia.com - An African-American news and views website.

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