SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.8841391259
R Square
0.7817019939
Adjusted R Square
0.7271274924
Standard Error
190.5240756386
Observations
31
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

df
6
24
30

SS
3119625.19328846
871186.161550251
3990811.35483871

MS
519937.532214743
36299.4233979271

Intercept
Q1
Q2
Q3
LagGNP
LagUnemp
LagInt

Coefficients
3154.7002851581
156.8330910214
379.7835116223
203.035501032
0.1741569057
-93.8323321358
-73.9167146982

Standard Error
462.6530922373
98.8711070289
96.0892151369
95.4089186416
0.05842
28.3232871591
17.7885157306

t Stat
6.8187165245
1.5862378377
3.9524051797
2.1280557827
2.9811178652
-3.3129040287
-4.1553053564

Predicted Sales
2728.588616368
2587.8486058679
2336.0345632433
2339.328280718
2447.2663429223
2400.1189768659
2199.7408001058
2076.3832659477
2276.9474218901
2026.1856211269
1848.7311911871
2138.3943352201
2212.2984563336
2014.2165964174
1969.3943315904
2166.6405442795
2440.6323005972
2290.3524027221
2131.3869785803
2433.6811729017
2739.0945167248

Residuals
181.411383632
-25.8486058679
48.9654367567
180.671719282
-305.2663429223
-270.1189768659
-9.7408001058
293.6167340523
-68.9474218901
169.8143788731
-90.7311911871
-194.3943352201
-118.2984563336
-103.2165964174
61.6056684096
-120.6405442795
61.3676994029
-52.3524027221
262.6130214197
152.3188270983
158.9054832752

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

2586.8776531936
2362.0354456073
2667.9944088465
2937.6013774274
2838.1748925683
2713.0792178096
2887.5779920866
3004.5709677368
2921.2252512379
2781.5974718761

-138.8776531936
97.9645543927
-21.9944088465
50.3986225726
128.8251074317
-274.0792178095
-289.5779920866
40.4290322632
291.7747487621
-96.5974718761

F
Significance F
14.3235755156 6.7974605167465E-007

P-value
4.7213979076107E-007
0.1257745212
0.0005941965
0.0438006252
0.0064902009
0.0029184874
0.0003556221

Lower 95%
2199.8314300867
-47.2268025629
181.465159531
6.1212116099
0.0535839765
-152.2887117325
-110.6303991717

Upper 95%
4109.5691402295
360.8929846057
578.1018637137
399.9497904542
0.2947298348
-35.3759525391
-37.2030302246

Lower 95.0%
2199.8314300867
-47.2268025629
181.465159531
6.1212116099
0.0535839765
-152.2887117325
-110.6303991717

Upper 95.0%
4109.5691402295
360.8929846057
578.1018637137
399.9497904542
0.2947298348
-35.3759525391
-37.2030302246

Data

A
B
C
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Historical data
Year Quarter Sales
10
79
1 Sales
11
79
2
2910
12
79
3
2562
13
79
4
2385
14
80
1
2520
15
80
2
2142
16
80
3
2130
17
80
4
2190
18
81
1
2370
19
81
2
2208
20
81
3
2196
21
81
4
1758
22
82
1
1944
23
82
2
2094
24
82
3
1911
25
82
4
2031
26
83
1
2046
27
83
2
2502
28
83
3
2238
29
83
4
2394
30
84
1
2586
31
84
2
2898
32
84
3
2448
33
84
4
2460
34
85
1
2646
35
85
2
2988
36
85
3
2967
37
85
4
2439
38
86
1
2598
39
86
2
3045
40
86
3
3213
41
86
4
2685
42

GNP
2541
2640
2595
2701
2785
2509
2570
2667
2878
2835
2897
2744
2582
2613
2529
2544
2633
2878
3051
3274
3594
3774
3861
3919
4040
4133
4303
4393
4560
4587
4716
4796

Unemp
5.9
5.7
5.9
6
6.2
7.3
7.7
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
8.3
8.8
9.4
10
10.7
10.4
10.1
9.4
8.5
7.9
7.5
7.5
7.2
7.4
7.3
7.1
7
7.1
7.1
6.9
6.8

Int
9.4
9.4
9.7
11.9
13.4
9.6
9.2
13.6
14.4
15.3
15.1
11.8
12.8
12.4
9.3
7.9
7.8
8.4
9.1
8.8
9.2
9.8
10.3
8.8
8.2
7.5
7.1
7.2
8.9
7.7
7.4
7.4

Q1
Q1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

Page 7

Q2
Q2
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

Q3
Q3
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

LagGNP LagUnemp
LagGNP LagUnemp
2541
5.9
2640
5.7
2595
5.9
2701
6
2785
6.2
2509
7.3
2570
7.7
2667
7.4
2878
7.4
2835
7.4
2897
7.4
2744
8.3
2582
8.8
2613
9.4
2529
10
2544
10.7
2633
10.4
2878
10.1
3051
9.4
3274
8.5
3594
7.9
3774
7.5
3861
7.5
3919
7.2
4040
7.4
4133
7.3
4303
7.1
4393
7
4560
7.1
4587
7.1
4716
6.9

LagInt
LagInt
9.4
9.4
9.7
11.9
13.4
9.6
9.2
13.6
14.4
15.3
15.1
11.8
12.8
12.4
9.3
7.9
7.8
8.4
9.1
8.8
9.2
9.8
10.3
8.8
8.2
7.5
7.1
7.2
8.9
7.7
7.4