IS VENEZUELA APPROACHING

TO DEFAULT?
Prof. Luis Angarita

The main concern

A brief history
Back

in 2006
2012
2014, 2015, 2016

What Venezuela needs?

Conclusion

Debt Coverage
Debt Coverage
250
200
150
100
50
0

2006
Debt (total)

2016
Forex Reserves

GDP (constant prices)

70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000

10.3

9.9
8.8
5.3

4.2

30,000,000

1.3

20,000,000
10,000,000

5.6

-1.5
-3.2

Variacin porcentual

-3.9

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0

Trade Balance
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

65,951

27,833
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Exportaciones Petroleras

Importaciones

Trade Balance (trim)

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0

2010

2011

2012

Exportaciones

2013
Importaciones

2014

2015

External Debt
130,362

140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000 46,725
40,000
20,000
0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Series1

Linear (Series1)

Forex Reserves
International Reserves (2012-2015)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-

2012

2013

2014

2015

Ext. Debt/Forex Res. Rate

140,000

8.0

120,000

6.7 6.77.0
6.0

100,000
80,000
60,000

4.1 3.9

4.7

4.3

5.7 5.6 5.8 5.4

5.3
5.0 5.2
4.8 4.7

5.0
4.0
3.0

40,000

2.0

20,000
0

1.0
2012
Deuda Externa

2013
RR II

2014
Relacin DE/RRII

2015

Oil Production Revenues

Produccin del Sector Petrolero (2012-2015)
5,100,000
5,050,000
5,000,000
4,950,000
4,900,000
4,850,000
4,800,000
4,750,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

Price Index
Indice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor
2,000.0
1,800.0
1,600.0
1,400.0
1,200.0
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
272.6
400.0
200.0
0.0
2012

12.4 14.0
1,752.1
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
2013
INPC

2014
Variacin Mensual

2015

0.0

GDP by sectors (2012-2015)

11%

11%
Actividad petrolera
Actividad no petrolera
Impuestos netos sobre
los productos

78%