Artificial Neural Network Model for Prediction

Solar Radiation Data: Application for Sizing

Stand-alone Photovoltaic Power System
MELLIT(*,1)A., BENGHANEM(2) M., BENDEKHIS M.

Abstract
The prediction of daily global solar radiation
data is very important for many solar applications, possible
application can be found in meteorology, renewable energy
and solar conversion energy. In this paper, we investigate
using Radial Basis Function (RBF) networks in order to
find a model for daily global solar radiation data from
sunshine duration and air temperature. This methodology is
considered suitable for prediction time series. Using the
database of daily sunshine duration, air temperature and
global solar radiation data corresponding to Typical
Reference Year (TRY). A RBF model has been trained based
on 300 known data from TRY, in this way, the network was
trained to accept and even handle a number of unusual
cases. Known data were subsequently used to investigate the
accuracy of prediction. Subsequently, the unknown
validation data set produced very accurate estimation, with
the mean relative error (MRE) not exceed 1.5% between the
actual and predicted data, also the correlation coefficient
obtained for the validation data set is 98.9%, these results
indicates that the proposed model can successfully be used
for prediction and modeling of daily global solar radiation
data from sunshine duration and air temperature. An
application for sizing of stand-alone PV system has been
presented in this paper in order to shows the importance of
this modeling.
Keywords
Modeling, Prediction, Radial Basis Function
Network, Global solar radiation data, Sizing PV system

I. INTRODUCTION
Daily global solar radiation data is considered such as
the most important parameter in the meteorology, solar
conversion, and renewable energy, particularly for the
sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems.
This work was supported in part by Institute of engineering sciences
(CUYFM), faculty of electrical engineering (USTHB), Center of
Renewable Energy Development (CDER). The third author was
supported in part by Ministry for the Higher Education and Scientific
Research, A. Mellit, is with CUYFM, Fax: 213 25 58 12 53
mellit_adel2001@yahoo.fr, (*) corresponding authors
M. Benghanem, is with Faculty of Electrical Engineering,
(USTHB), B.O.Box, 32, El-Alia, Bab-Ezzouar 16111, Algiers, Algeria
& m.benghanem@caramail.com,

This type of data is regarded as being time series, which

advanced according to time, modeling time series include the
area of stochastic prediction, the optimal prediction of a signal
sample (in a minimum mean-square sense), give a finite
number of past samples. It is conditional expectation [1], but
the computation of the conditional expectation requires the
knowledge of the joint probability of the current sample and
past samples, which is generally not known. Because of this,
and the fact that the conditional expectation is in general nonlinear, finding the solution is mathematically intractable.
Therefore, the methods for designing the non-linear signal
predictors are sub-optimal, and they can only attempt to
approximate the conditional expectation of the current sample.
These sub-optimal methods, like Auto-Regressive (AR) [2-3]
prediction, Markov chains [4-5] and ARMA model [6] are
based on simplifying statistical assumptions about the
measured data which are not always true, also these data can
be generated by Markov Transition Matrix (MTM) approach
[7] using in input only the average monthly radiation data
(Hm). The neural network approach provides a good solution to
such a problem, because its design is based on training and
therefore, no statistical assumptions are needed for the source
data. Neural networks are widely accepted as a technology
offering an alternative way to tackle complex and ill-defined
problems. They can be trained to predict results from
examples. They are able to deal with non-linear problems, and
once trained can perform prediction at very high speed. The
number of researchers have used the Neural network for
prediction of daily global solar radiation data:
Guessoum et al [8] have used the RBF networks to predict
solar radiation data in Algeria, in their research, the input and
the output is the solar radiation data corresponding to day H(j)
and the next day H(j+1), the RBF model predicts solar
radiation data with accuracy K.S.Statistics of 1.36%.
Mohandes et al [9] used data from 41 recording stations in
Saudi Arabia, the input values to the network are latitude,
longitude, altitude and sunshine duration, in order to predict
the mean monthly solar radiation data, the results for testing
stations obtained are within 16%. Kalogirou et al [10] used
the recurrent neural network to predict the maximum of solar
radiation from relative humidity and temperature, obtained
results indicates the correlation coefficient varied between
98.58% and 98.75.

The purpose of this work is to develop a model for

predicting of daily global solar radiation data from
sunshine duration and air temperature using the RBF
model.

II. COLLECTED DATA

The meteorological data we have used in this work
are the daily temperature air, the sunshine duration and
the global solar radiation. These data were recorded by a
meteorological station located in Algiers (Algeria)
corresponding at 1980 to 2000 period. Through this
database we constituted one typical reference year. As an
example, Figure 1 shows a typical example of a global
daily solar radiation sequence (global radiation received
on a horizontal surface in each day i, Hi), temperature air
(T) and sunshine duration (S).

Sufficiency of one layer of non-linear elements for

establishing arbitrary input-output mapping
Solution of clustering problem can be performed
independently from the weight in output layers
RBF network output in scarcely trained areas of input
space is not random, but depends on the density of the
pairs in training data set [13].

These proprieties lead to potentially quicker learning in

comparison to multi-layer perceptrons trained by BackPropagation (BP). In some extent, RBF networks allow us to
actualize a classical idea about training layer by layer.
The artificial neural network (ANN) computation can be
divided in two phases: learning phase and testing phase. The
learning phase for forms an iterative updating of the synaptic
weights based upon the error BP algorithm [14].
Mathematically, the function of the processing elements can be
expressed as:
n

u ( x, w) = wi xi + b

15

(1)

i =1

S(t)

10

Where b is the bias value, wi is the synaptic weights, xi is the

input data. The value state of the node is determined by
applying the activation function f. For our implementation, we
have selected the logistic activation function:

5
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

f (u ) =

T (C)

40

20

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

H (Wh/m/day)

4000

2000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Fig.1. Sequences of global daily solar radiation data, temperature air

and sunshine duration for Algiers (TRY)

III. RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION NETWORKS

RBF networks become very popular due to several
important advantages over traditional Multi-Layer
Perceptrons (MLP) [11,12]:
Locality of radial basis function feature extraction in
hidden neurons, that allows usage of clustering
algorithms and independent tuning of RBF network
parameters.

(2)

Where determine the steepness of the transition region.

The RBF Network (figure 2) have a same structure as the
MLP having only one hidden layer, the RBF is applied to the
hidden layer [14] it is chosen as being Gaussian defined by its
average m and its variance, the output layer can be linear
or non-linear function. The determination of the network
parameters has the same procedure as the MLP, it is also a
universal approximator. That is to say a vector x having i
components xj formed the input layer of the RBF and that is to
say a hidden layer contained h neurons and output layer, the
output layer is given by:
k

0
0

Day

1
(1 + e u )

y i = w i exp( 0 . 5

(x
j =1

m ij )( x j m ij )

i2

i =1

) (3)

Where mi=(mi1,mi2,.,mik) is the vector average of the

hidden neuron i, and which the element mij is the weight
between input j and the hidden neuron i . is the variance
from the hidden neuron i and wi is the weight binding the
hidden neuron i to the output layer. Determination of the
parameters mij, i, and wi is done by using the PB algorithm.
The aim is to minimize the error (E) define by:
N

E = 1 ei2
2 i =1

(4)

Where N is the number of examples, ei is the error

between measured and estimated data.

H(k)
Database

wi, k +1 = wi,k + 1el, k f( D )

2

(5)

B.P
Algorithm

l =1

e(k)

H (k)
N

i,k +1= i, k + 3 wi, k el,k f'( D )DD

2

S(k)

(6)

RBF
Model

l =1

T(k)
N

mi,k +1=mi,k +22 wi,k el,k f'( D ) i, j D

2

(7)

l =1

Where D=xl-mi, k , 1, 2 and 3 are the learning rate.

f

x1
x2

xn

Fig.3. Diagram block of developed model

Where H (k) is the predicted daily global solar radiation data.

y1
y2

yn

Fig. 2. The neural network architecture employed

(Radial Basis Function Networks)

V. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Once a satisfactory degree of input-output mapping has
been reached, the RBF network training is frozen and the set
of completely is an unknown test data that was applied for
validation. After simulation of many different structures, we
found that the best performance is obtained with a one hidden
layer with 9 neurons. The best model is validated by
comparison between predicted results and actual measured
global solar radiation data that is shown in figure 4. We
observe that there is almost a complete agreement between the
two series.
3000

IV. DEVELOPED MODEL

2500

Solar radiation data (Wh/m)

Figure 3 shows the diagram block of developed

model, the total of 365 patterns has been used in this
study, from this set 300 patterns were used for the training
of the network and 65 were used as for testing and
validation for our model. The architecture that gave the
best results is shown in figure 2. Which has two neurons
in the input layer and one neuron in the output layer.
However, the number of the neurons in the hidden layer
must be adjusted during the learning phase, so that the
network can be trained efficiently. Developed model can
be generating the daily global solar radiation data from
only the temperature and sunshine duration.

__:Measured data
...: Predicted data

2000

1500

1000

500
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Day

Fig.4. Comparison between predicted and measured daily global solar

radiation data

Table 1 displays the statistical features (mean, variance

correlation coefficient and MRE) between the measured daily
global solar radiation data and those predicted by our model, it
is found that there is no significant difference between the
predicted and the measured data from the statistical features

point of view. The correlation coefficient obtained for the

validation data set is 98.9%. Also, the mean relative error
not exceed 1.5%. In this respect, the closer to unity these
values are the better the prediction accuracy.
TABLE 1. COMPARISON BETWEEN PREDICTED
AND MEASURED DAILY GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION DATA

Radiation
Data
(Wh/m/day)
Measured
Data (H)
Predicted
data ( H )

Mean

2104
2076

Variance Correlation MRE

Coefficient
(%)
(%)
1.562
98.9
1.34
1.541

VI. APPLICATION FOR SIZING OF PV SYSTEMS

In this section we will make an application for the
sizing of stand-alone PV system, using obtained daily
global solar radiation data by our model for year 2001. In
continuation we chose a sizing method [15,16] of standalone PV systems in order to illustrate the importance of
this prediction. Also the comparison between the isoreliability curves obtained respectively by our model and
measured data (these data is recorded by using the
network system [17]). Figure 5 shows the evolution of
the capacity of the generator according to storage capacity
for Algiers location. This iso-reliability curve allows the
sizing of stand-alone PV system for 2001 year. According
to these iso-reliability curves one note that, we obtained
good results, which shows the importance of the
prediction and the modeling of global solar radiation data
from only the temperature air and the sunshine duration.
1.5
1.4
1.3

PV capacity

1.2

LLP=0.01
Site: Algiers
Latitude:3643'
Longitude:314'
L=1000Wh/day
Year: 2001

__: Measured data

....: Predicted data

1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Storage capacity

Fig.5 Iso-reliability curves

80

90

100

Table II shows an optimal sizing parameters for stand-alone

PV system obtained for 4 locations in Algeria, These
parameters have been calculated from the iso-reliability curve
correspond 4 sites. From this parameters we can determine the
number of solar cell panels and storage batteries necessary a
given load
TABLE II
OPTIMAL SIZING PARAMETER

Sites
Latitude Longitude
(Deg.)
(Deg.)
36
2
35
5
22
3
23
4

Optimal sizing parameters

LLP=1%, L=1000Wh/day
CAOP
CSOP
2.202
1.115
0.642
0.631

1.95
1.89
0.75
0.76

VII. CONCLUSION
This article describes how it is possible to predict and
modeling daily global solar radiation data, that is statistically
indistinguishable from the real ones where the later exist to be
compared. The prediction of sequences is done in a very
simple manner, using Radial Basis Function networks, and
starting only with a minimum of input data, which is the
sunshine duration and temperature air. Possible application can
be found in meteorology, renewable energy and solar
conversion energy. A developed model was trained to predict a
daily global solar radiation data. The validation of the model
was performed with unknown data, which the model has not
seen before. Predictions with mean relative error of 1.34 %
was obtained. This accuracy is well within the acceptable level
used by design engineers. The advantage of this model is able
to predict and estimate a sequence of daily solar radiation data
from only temperature air and sunshine duration, which are
always available.
The limitation of this model appears in the convergence
time, if increasing the data more than 300 samples the
convergence process becomes slow, therefore it remains to use
faster algorithm in order to obtain good convergence (eg. Fast
back propagation algorithm), or uses the modular networks. In
order to improve these results other parameters related to solar
radiation must be added to input of the network.
The results have been obtained for Algerian meteorological
data, but the methodology can be applied to any geographical
area.
Future work will include the investigating the suitability
of neuro-fuzzy model for generation daily solar radiation data,
and the application of this model for the sizing of photovoltaic
systems.

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