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where Bi = the number of live births of women in the i-th age cohort of child bearing age and
Wi = the number of women in the i-th age cohort of women of childbearing age.
where h is the number of years in an age cohort, n = the number of age cohorts of women of
childbearing age, Bi = the number of live births of women in the i-th age cohort of child
1
bearing age, and Wi = the number of women in the i-th age cohort of women of childbearing
age.
where B = number of live births in a given year and Bi = the number of live births of women
in the i-th age cohort of childbearing age.
or
Thus,
Total population
284,796,887
4,025,933
Females 10-14
10,185,198
7,781
Females 15-19
9,843,981
445,944
Females 20-24
9,619,230
1,021,627
Females 25-29
9,333,209
1,058,265
Females 30-34
10,260,525
942,697
Females 35-39
11,138,324
451,723
Females 40-44
11,477,432
92,813
Females 45-49
10,544,119
5,083
______
Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 51, No. 4, February 6, 2003, Tables 2, 11.
B = 4.026 million
P = 285 million
Wavg = 10.3 million
h=5
3
TFR = 2.033
and
By computing the crude birth rate, b, from minimum and maximum values for Wavg, I
bracketed the correct solution by 390.8 years < N1/2 < 744.1. Next, I used the value of TFR =
2.033 to adjust the published value of b = 0.0141 to obtain b = 0.0141 / 2.033, b d = r =
0.0141/2.033 0.0083 = -0.00136 and N1/2 = 508 years. I claimed this was a better value for
N1/2, however it pointed to the same course of action (and its true even if the halving time is
seventy-five years only); namely, we must reduce our use of high-grade energy to prevent
Die-Off. No matter what else we think, this means abandoning the capitalist-style market
economy and its associated modes of production and distribution of goods and services as the
energetic overhead and other requirements are too great. I have indicated why this is true in
Energy in a Natural Economy as discussed in The Proposition that Conservation Is a Bad
Thing as an Example of Reductio ad Absurdum and I resolve to do a better job of proving it
is true in the coming new year.
Houston, Texas
December 24, 2004
Revised January 1, 2005