Result Update

February 13, 2015

Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:
:
:

Container Corporation (CONCOR)

Buy
| 1690
12 months
17%

Higher Exim volume buoys earnings!!!

Whats changed?
Target
EPS FY16E
EPS FY17E
Rating

Changed from | 1670 to | 1690

Changed from | 58.1 to | 58.8
Changed from | 75.9 to | 76.7
Unchanged

Quarterly performance
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
PAT

Q3FY15
1,451.8
366.9
25.3
301.1

Q3FY14
1,239.3
285.6
23.0
249.6

YoY (%)
17.2
28.4
222bps
20.6

Q2FY15
1,354.8
312.7
23.1
191.9

QoQ (%)
7.2
17.3
219bps
56.9

Key financials
| Crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (|)

FY14
5,109
1,078
950
48.7

FY15E
5,573
1,310
994
51.0

FY16E
6,526
1,566
1,146
58.8

FY17E
7,972
2,013
1,496
76.7

Valuation summary
P/E (x)
Target P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
P / BV (x)
RONW (%)
ROCE (%)

FY14
29.6
34.7
23.6
4.1
13.8
12.8

FY15E
28.3
33.2
19.1
3.7
13.1
12.1

FY16E
24.5
28.8
15.7
3.3
13.7
13.2

FY17E
18.8
22.0
11.7
3.0
15.9
16.0

Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalisation (| Crore)
Totak Debt (Mar-14) (| Crore)
Cash and Investment (Mar-14) (| Crore)
EV (| Crore)
52 week H/L
Equity Capital (| Crore)
Face Value (|)

Amount
28,075.7
2,704.2
25,371.5
1505 / 705
195.0
10.0

Stock Return
Gati
Blue Dart Express
Concor
Gateway Distripark

1M
-15.4
-3.7
6.6
11.0

3M
-8.0
14.7
8.5
27

| 1450

6M
71.5
76.1
10.6
67.9

12M
280.3
112.1
99.7
205.2

Research Analysts
Bharat Chhoda
bharat.chhodal@icicisecurities.com
Soumojeet Banerjee
soumojeet.banerjee@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Concors revenues in Q3YF15 grew ~17% YoY to | 1451.8 crore. On

the volume front, Exim volume in the quarter posted robust 12%
YoY growth to 665130 TEUs whereas on the domestic front, volume
declined ~9%YoY to 115313 TEUs
EBITDA for the quarter recorded strong growth at 28% and 17% YoY
and QoQ, respectively, to | 367 crore. The EBITDA margin for the
quarter expanded 222 bps YoY and 219 bps QoQ to 25.3%. Margins
expanded on account of continued higher double stacking besides a
decline in empty haulage from 5% to 3.8% YoY in Q3FY15
PAT for Q3FY15 stood at | 301 crore posting robust growth of nearly
21% YoY and 57% QoQ
Ports volumes support Exim trade, logistic parks in focus
Concor remains a leader among container train operators with ~80%
market share. Container volumes at major ports faced pressure as volume
declined nearly 5.8% and 6.7% YoY in FY14 at JNPT and Chennai,
respectively. However, at the turn of Q3FY15, container volumes at major
ports posted growth of ~10% YoY whereas on a YTD basis container
volumes grew ~8%. As a result, Exim volumes for Concor grew ~12%
YoY leading to a shift of focus towards Exim from the slow growing
domestic segment. With demand recovering, going ahead, rake addition
is expected at six rakes for Q4FY15 with existing fleet at 249 rakes by end
of Q3FY15. Further, focus on the development of 15 multi modal logistic
parks (MMLP) remains unabated.
Transition in growth trajectory; propelled by MMLP, PFTs
Concor plans to set up private freight terminals and MMLP across 15
locations in India with plans to add another five over the next couple of
years. Currently, PFTs at Khatuwas and Nagulpally are operational and
expected to scale up in the near term. Further, Concor plans to acquire
land in the central and eastern regions of the country, in close proximity
to the dedicated freight corridor (DFC), to scale up its PFT business.
Concors FY15 capex plan stands at ~| 1050 crore with nearly | 700 crore
towards land acquisition. Further, in the next five years, Concors
intended capex stands at | 6000 crore. Majority of it directed towards
MMLP, hence, making the revenue stream more stable as well as visible.
Strong Exim volume growth traction to sustain upside; maintain BUY
Container volume at major ports such as Mumbai and Chennai posted
healthy growth of nearly 10% and 6%, respectively, YoY YTD. Hence,
Exim volumes for Concor are expected to maintain their high growth
trajectory. Further, with MMLPs starting to gain maturity; Concor would
add another line of revenue and reduce income volatility. Also, as GST is
expected to roll out in FY16, we anticipate total volume CAGR for Concor
at ~12% over FY14-17E, thereby leading to revenue and earnings CAGR
of ~16% each in the same period. Going ahead, margins may come
under pressure in the near term due to an increase in railway haulage
charges. However, higher volume and demand for Exim cargo is
expected to ease freight hike to be passed on. Finally, a strong balance
sheet and cash position paves the way for Concor to maintain market
leadership. Consequently, we continue to assign a P/E multiple of 22x
FY17E EPS of | 76.7 to arrive at a target price of | 1690. We maintain BUY
recommendation on the stock.

Variance analysis
Q3FY15 Q3FY15E
1,451.8 1,376.7

Revenue

Employee Expenses
Terminal & other Expenses

Administrative Expenses
Total Expense
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Total Tax
PAT

Q3FY14
1,239.3

YoY (%)
17.2

41.0
827.7

34.4
812.3

34.1
728.2

20.0
13.7

47.4
775.6

-13.6
6.7

216.3
1,084.9

210.0
1,056.6

191.2
953.6

13.1
13.8

219.1
1,042.1

-1.3
4.1

366.9
25.3
93.7
0.0
85.2
358.4
57.3
301.1

320.1
23.3
98.0
0.0
87.4
309.5
77.4
232.1

Q3FY15 Q3FY14
665,130 594,642
115,313 127,262

Key Metrics
EXIM Volume (TEUs)
Domestic Volume (TEUs)

Q2FY15 QoQ (%)

1,354.8
7.2

285.6
28.4
23.0 222 bps
46.8
100.2
0.0
88.8
-4.0
327.6
9.4
78.0
-26.6
249.6
20.6

312.7
17.3
23.1 219 bps
148.6
-36.9
0.0
92.0
-7.4
256.2
39.9
64.3
-10.9
191.9
56.9

YoY(%) Q2FY15 QoQ (%)

11.9 676,922
-1.7
-9.4 121,168
-4.8

Comments
Revenue posted strong growth on back of strong Exim volume growth and decline in
overall empty haulage from ~7% to 6% on YoY basis

Higher charges as Railways increased its charges partially in the quarter.Going ahead,
charges are expected to increase from March 1, 2015 as Railways implements its
freight hike completely

Higher volume, lower empty haulage and double stacking aided margins

YoY growth of 12% in Exim volume due to increased port volumes

Domestic volume declined QoQ & YoY due to deliberate focus towards Exim volume

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates
(| Crore)
Revenue

Old
6,477.6

FY16E
New % Change
6,526.0
0.7

Old
7,911.6

FY17E
New % Change
7,972.0
0.8

EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)

1,554.6
24.0

1,566.2
24.0

0.7
0 bps

1,997.7
25.3

2,012.9
25.3

0.8
0 bps

PAT

1,132.8

1,145.8

1.1

1,479.4

1,495.7

1.1

EPS (|)
58.1
58.8
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

1.2

75.9

76.7

1.1

Comments
Revenue estimates remain in line
Continued double stacking and hub & spoke model together with lower empty haulage
to support operating margins
PAT estimates have been revised marginally upwards in line with the view of improved
revenue due to better container volumes and increased contribution from additional
revenue line of logistic parks

Assumptions

Exim Volume
Domestic Volume
Exim Realisation
Domestic Realisation

Unit
TEUs

FY14
2,361,419

TEUs
|/TEUs
|/TEUs

507,183
16,370
22,057

Current
FY16E
FY17E
2,956,984
3,311,822
469,137
18,224
24,243

519,708
19,902
26,571

Earlier
FY15E
FY16E
2,627,088 2,824,120
557,872
16,090
22070

620,765
17,197
23722

Comments
Prioritising of Exim cargo by management along with higher capex in rakes to support
Exim volumes
Domestic volume to taper as Exim cargo takes priority
Consequently, realisation to improve in the Exim segment

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Company Analysis
Focus to enhance Exim volume as major ports volume recoups
Exim revenues form ~84% of Concors total revenues. Exim volumes
posted a CAGR of ~6% over FY10-14 with FY14 posting robust growth of
~10% YoY, thereby, hinting towards a revival in FY14. Further, for major
ports, container volumes grew ~8% YoY on a YTD basis. Consequently,
going ahead, driven by buoyant container volume growth at major ports,
we expect Exim volumes for Concor to post a CAGR of ~12% over FY1417E. Further, as JNPT port is one of the largest volume contributors to
Concor, its volumes posted growth of nearly 13.3% YoY for Q3FY15. In
contrast, on a YTD basis, JNPTs container volumes grew ~10% YoY. The
port volume share for Concor from JNPT declined to 43% for YTD FY15.
However, the decline in volume share at JNPT was compensated by an
increase in share from Mundra and Pipavav port where Concors share
stood at 25% and 21%, respectively, in YTD FY15. As volumes pick up at
ports, Concor focuses on Exim to improve its earnings.
Exhibit 1: Exim container volume
3,500
3,000

2,152

2,361

2,957

3,312

2,000

500

533 528

523 568 548 603

595 616 632 676 665

Q3FY14

1,000

Q3FY13

1,500

Q1FY13

000 TEUs

2,500

2,664

FY17E

FY16E

FY15E

FY14

FY13

Q3FY15

Q2FY15

Q1FY15

Q4FY14

Q2FY14

Q1FY14

Q4FY13

Q2FY13

EXIM

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Domestic volume starts to pick up although at sluggish pace

Over FY10-13, domestic cargo volumes had been a laggard and de-grew
at a CAGR of 5.3%. However, FY14 has seen a revival in domestic cargo
volumes with 17% YoY growth. Going ahead, we expect domestic cargo
volume to grow at a CAGR of ~1% over FY14-17E. Though domestic
volume growth remains sluggish, it is expected to grow on account of
rebates and discounts offered by Concor to its clientele on the basis of
committed volumes.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

507

481

469

520

434

400

96

106 114

117

114 120 127

146 135

121

115

Q1FY14

Q4FY14

Q2FY15

Q3FY15

100

Q4FY13

200

Q2FY13

300

Q1FY13

000 TEUs

500

FY15E

600

FY14

Exhibit 2: Domestic container volume

FY17E

FY16E

FY13

Q1FY15

Q3FY14

Q2FY14

Q3FY13

Domestic

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Concor to post strong growth numbers aided by PFTs and private ports
Concors revenues grew at a CAGR of 4.5% over FY11-FY13 as container
volume remained under pressure with a decline in volume at major ports.
However, going ahead, with an improved market share in private ports
such as Mundra and Gujarat Pipavav we expect volumes to improve. On
the EBITDA front also, we expect Concor to post a CAGR of ~23% over
FY14-17E vis--vis CAGR of ~3% over FY11-13. As EBITDA margins have
remained under pressure over the years due to a steep increase of freight
rates by railways, going forward, we believe hikes will pause, thereby
allowing the company to stabilise its margins. Also, introduction of
double stacking and hub & spoke model for its operations is expected to
provide further scope to improve margins (in the range of 23% to 25%) in
future. Further, introduction of PFTs is expected to improve the earnings
of the company in the future. Consequently, PAT is also expected to post
a CAGR of ~16% over FY14-17E against 3% in FY11-13.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Outlook and Valuation

In 1999-2007, Concor registered robust growth with revenues posting a
CAGR of 21% along with EBITDA and PAT also posting CAGR of ~22%
over the same period. However, post the financial crisis of 2008, Concor
also faced the severe brunt and has been trying to recover its growth with
revenue CAGR of ~7.3% during 2008-14 with EBITDA posting a nominal
growth of 3% and PAT of 4% CAGR during the same period. The decline
in growth rate has been attributed to the sluggish economic conditions,
growing competition from roadways/ new entrants in CTO and incessant
fuel price hikes. As a result, the average EBITDA margin declined from
29% in 1999-2007 to 25% during 2008-2014 with the lowest margin in
FY14 of 21.1%. Going ahead, with FDI in rail and projects such as
dedicated freight corridor and goods and services tax (GST) on the
priority list of the government, we anticipate Concors growth and
margins will recoup at a faster pace. Consequently, we envisage revenue
CAGR of ~16% over FY14-17E followed by placid restoration of EBITDA
margin to 23-25% over FY14-17E, thereby leading to EBITDA and PAT
CAGR of ~23% and 16% over the same period, respectively.
As GST is expected to roll out in FY16, we anticipate total volume CAGR
for Concor at ~12% over FY14-17E, thereby leading to revenue &
earnings CAGR of ~16% each in the same period. Also, PFTs becoming
operational in due course of time are expected to add another revenue
line for Concor. Further, any near term risk of adverse freight rate
movement is expected to be mitigated by higher Exim volume
generation. Finally, strong balance sheet with superior cash flow and
marginal increase in estimates, we continue to assign P/E multiple of 22x
FY17E EPS to arrive at a target price of | 1690. We maintain BUY
recommendation on the stock.
Exhibit 3: PE trend

Close -Unit Curr

8.0 X

10.0 X

15.0 X

20.0 X

25.0 X

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Apr-16

Dec-15

Aug-15

Apr-15

Dec-14

Aug-14

Apr-14

Dec-13

Aug-13

Apr-13

Dec-12

Aug-12

Apr-12

Dec-11

Aug-11

Apr-11

Dec-10

Aug-10

Apr-10

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

Company snapshot
1,800

Target Price |1690

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200

Jan-16

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jul-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jan-15

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jul-14

May-14

Jan-14

Mar-14

Nov-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13

Mar-13

Nov-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

Mar-12

Nov-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

May-11

Jan-11

Mar-11

Nov-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10

Mar-10

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events
Date
Feb-08

Event
Concor NYK to set up JV company

May-09

Q3FY12 profit up 13.9 % YoY; forthcoming Rail Budget keeps stock in focus

Jan-11

Concor TCI plan to set up JV company Infinite Logistics Solutions Ltd for ocean freight carrier service

Jul-11

Concor halves capex plans as Exim business is plagued by cargo imbalance

Feb-12

Concor plans to set up three logistics parks in West Bengal and further plans to set up 15 such parks across the country; Q1FY12 result profit up 5%

Jul-12

Competition panel absolves Concor of abusing its position in container train operator segment

Aug-12

9% hike in haulage charges by railways

Jan-13

Cut in rail freight and stabilisation of container volumes; the freight rate cut varies between 5% and 13% after steep 31% increase in February 2013

Apr-13

Concor announces 1:2 bonus issue; Q1FY14 number disappoints

Jul-14

Concor promoted to Navratna status from Miniratna

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders

Shareholding Pattern

Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others

Name
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
Government of India
31-Dec-14 61.80
120.5
0.0
Aberdeen Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.
31-Dec-14 7.02
13.7
13.7
Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C.
30-Nov-14 4.14
8.1
8.1
Life Insurance Corporation of India
28-Jun-13 3.02
5.9
5.9
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd.
31-Dec-14 1.80
3.5
1.2
T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd.
31-Dec-14 1.50
2.9
2.9
LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Company L
31-Dec-14 1.49
2.9
0.0
GIC Private Limited
31-Dec-14 1.32
2.6
0.4
IDFC Asset Management Company Private Limited
31-Dec-14 0.74
1.4
0.0
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (India) Private Ltd.
31-Dec-14 0.73
1.4
-0.1

Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Dec-13

61.8
61.8
61.8
63.1
63.1
25.0
25.9
26.5
28.3
26.6
7.8
6.7
6.4
5.4
6.3
5.4
5.6
5.3
3.8
3.1

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
Aberdeen Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.
Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C.
Life Insurance Corporation of India
T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd.
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd.

Value
293.90m
174.87m
71.08m
62.93m
25.59m

Shares
13.69m
8.07m
5.88m
2.93m
1.19m

Sells
Investor name
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
APG Asset Management
T. Rowe Price Hong Kong Limited
First State Investment Management (UK) Limited
FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited

Value
-32.10m
-8.29m
-5.67m
-5.62m
-4.03m

Shares
-1.47m
-0.48m
-0.47m
-0.38m
-0.33m

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Revenue
Growth (%)
Terminal/Other Service charge
Employee Cost
Administrative & other exp.
Op. Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Growth (%)
Tax
Reported PAT
Growth (%)
Adjustments
Adj. Net Profit

| Crore
FY14
5,108.5
14.9
3,645.6
126.4
258.5
4,030.5
1,078.1
2.7
193.4
884.7
1.0
369.9
1,253.6
4.2
302.3
951.3
2.2
0.0
951.3

FY15E
5,573.4
9.1
3,929.2
139.3
195.1
4,263.6
1,309.7
21.5
390.1
919.6
0.0
338.0
1,257.7
0.3
264.1
993.5
4.4
0.0
993.5

FY16E
6,526.0
17.1
4,584.5
146.8
228.4
4,959.8
1,566.2
19.6
450.1
1,116.1
0.0
411.6
1,527.8
21.5
381.9
1,145.8
15.3
0.0
1,145.8

FY17E
7,972.0
22.2
5,540.5
183.4
235.2
5,959.0
2,012.9
28.5
498.9
1,514.1
0.0
474.9
1,989.0
30.2
493.3
1,495.7
30.5
0.0
1,495.7

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)
Profit after Tax
Add: Depreciation
Add: Others
Cash Profit
Increase/(Decrease) in CL
(Increase)/Decrease in CA
CF from Operating Activities
Purchase of Fixed Assets
(Inc)/Dec in Investments
Others
CF from Investing Activities
Inc/(Dec) in Loan Funds
Inc/(Dec) in Sh. Cap. & Res.
Others
CF from financing activities
Change in cash Eq.
Op. Cash and cash Eq.
Cl. Cash and cash Eq.

| Crore
FY14
951.3
193.4
177.0
1,321.7
-61.6
-1.3
1,258.8
-535.3
-689.2

FY15E
993.5
390.1
-30.7
1,352.9
-69.4
22.6
1,306.1
-1,000.0
333.1

FY16E
1,145.8
450.1
91.8
1,687.7
-117.2
7.7
1,578.2
-700.0
-73.5

FY17E
1,495.7
498.9
155.0
2,149.6
-162.8
21.0
2,007.7
-450.0
-79.0

-1,224.5
3.5
0.0
-279.7
-276.2
-241.8
2,946.0
2,704.2

-666.9
3.8
0.0
-298.1
-294.2
344.9
2,704.2
3,049.1

-773.5
7.8
0.0
-343.7
-335.9
468.8
3,049.1
3,517.9

-529.0
11.9
0.0
-448.7
-436.8
1,041.9
3,517.9
4,559.8

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

353.4
138.7
48.7
58.7
12.3

389.0
156.4
51.0
71.0
12.7

430.2
180.4
58.8
81.9
14.7

483.9
233.9
76.7
102.3
19.2

21.1
18.6
1.5
4.0
2.1
40.5

23.5
17.8
1.4
3.5
2.2
40.3

24.0
17.6
1.6
3.0
2.3
39.3

25.3
18.8
1.9
3.0
2.3
38.0

13.8
12.8
25.2

13.1
12.1
24.1

13.7
13.2
27.2

15.9
16.0
37.2

29.6
4.1
23.6
5.0

28.3
3.7
19.1
4.5

24.5
3.3
15.7
3.8

18.8
3.0
11.7
3.0

0.0
NA
0.0
4.3
4.3

0.0
NA
0.0
4.5
4.4

0.0
NA
0.0
4.5
4.5

0.0
NA
0.0
4.9
4.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

| Crore

(Year-end March)
Source of Funds
Equity Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Shareholder's Fund
Minority Interest
Loan Funds
Deferred Tax Liability
Provisions
Source of Funds

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

FY17E

195.0
6,694.8
6,889.8
27.5
0.0
305.0
45.7
7,268.0

195.0
7,390.3
7,585.3
0.0
0.0
315.0
45.7
7,946.0

195.0
8,192.4
8,387.3
0.0
0.0
325.0
45.7
8,758.0

195.0
9,239.4
9,434.3
0.0
0.0
335.0
45.7
9,815.0

Application of Funds
Gross Block
Less: Acc. Depreciation
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Investments
Inventories
Debtor
Cash
Loan & Advance, Other CA
Total Current assets
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Total CL and Provisions
Net Working Capital
Application of Funds

4,801.6
1,488.0
3,313.6
0.0
3,313.6
1,440.3
16.7
47.8
2,704.2
508.3
3,276.9
566.8
195.9
762.8
2,514.1
7,268.0

5,801.6
1,878.1
3,923.5
0.0
3,923.5
1,107.2
53.4
33.6
3,049.1
615.2
3,751.3
614.6
221.4
836.0
2,915.3
7,946.0

6,501.6
2,328.2
4,173.3
0.0
4,173.3
1,180.7
53.6
41.1
3,517.9
752.3
4,365.0
701.8
259.3
961.0
3,404.0
8,758.0

6,951.6
2,827.1
4,124.5
0.0
4,124.5
1,259.7
65.5
50.2
4,559.8
891.0
5,566.5
830.0
305.8
1,135.7
4,430.8
9,815.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
Book Value
Cash per share
EPS
Cash EPS
DPS
Profitability & Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT Margin (%)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory Turnover (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Current Liabilities (Days)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
PE
Price to Book Value
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Leverage & Solvency Ratios
Debt to equity (x)
Interest Coverage (x)
Debt to EBITDA (x)
Current Ratio
Quick ratio

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Logistics)

CMP
M Cap
EPS (|)
P/E (x)
(|) TP(|) Rating
(| Cr) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E
Sector / Company
Container Corporation (CONCOR)
1,453 1,690 BUY 28,076 48.7 51.0 58.8 29.6 28.3 24.5
Gateway Distriparks (GATDIS)
400 485 BUY
4,181 12.5 18.5 20.7 30.8 20.6 18.3
6,880 7,740 BUY 16,157 51.6 53.4 67.3 131.8 127.4 101.0
BlueDart (BLUDAR)
209 221 HOLD 10,201
4.0
6.6
9.1 53.2 31.8 23.2
Gujarat Pipavav Port (GUJPPL)#
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research # Follow calendar year * Post bonus issue

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

EV/EBITDA (x)
RoCE (%)
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E
23.6 19.1 15.7 13.8 13.1 13.7
15.4 12.0 10.8 18.2 22.9 22.2
92.2 76.6 57.5 22.5 25.9 23.5
40.0 25.7 20.2 11.4 18.3 17.7

RoE (%)
FY14 FY15E FY16E
13.8 13.1 13.7
16.2 20.8 20.2
19.1 19.4 23.4
13.7 18.6 20.3

Page 8

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises
them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the
notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Soumojeet Kr Banerjee, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report

accurately reflect
our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
RATING
RATIONALE
view(s) in this report.

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ratings
to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is
a
wholly-owned
ICICI Bank
which isand
Indias Sell.
largest private
bank and has its various
subsidiariesis
engaged
businessesunless
of housing finance,
asset management,
life insurance,
general
as
Strongsubsidiary
Buy, ofBuy,
Hold
Thesector
performance
horizon
twoin years
specified
and the
notional
insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (associates), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
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and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
Buy:
>10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without
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Hold:
Up
to +/-10%;
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Sell:
-10%
orsuspension
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Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment
in the past twelve months.

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned
Road No 7, MIDC,
in the report in the past twelve months.
Andheri (East)
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation
or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third
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preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any
Mumbai
400with
093
material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.
research@icicidirect.com
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in
respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

It is confirmed that Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Soumojeet Kr Banerjee, MBA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the
preceding twelve months.
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Page 10