HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

26 October, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close
Close
Chg. % Chg. RUPEE CLOSES UP 0.04% TO 66.82 A DOLLAR
USDINR 66.825 66.853 -0.028 -0.04% Rupee volatility has been up in yesterdays trade amid start of FCNR
payment. The rupee maintained its edge over the U.S. dollar for the
DXY INDX 98.743 98.715 0.028 0.03%
second day on Tuesday, appreciating by a modest three paise to
EURUSD 1.089 1.0882 0.001 0.06% close at 66.82.
GBPUSD 1.216 1.2235 -0.007 -0.59%
The 10 year govt. bond yield up by 0.05% to settle at 6.78 after
USDJPY 104.300 104.5 -0.200 -0.19% successful completion of open market operation on yesterday.
DG USDINR 67.128 67.1186 0.009 0.01%
Spot USDINR is having resistance around 67.07 while 66.50 acts as
GLOBAL INDICES support in near term. The overall bias for the pair remains bearish
until it manages to cross 67.27.
Dollar Took a Breath After Nine Month High
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. The dollar took a pause in early today, but was still hovering near
Close
nine-month peak against a currency basket as expectations for a
SGX NIFTY 8666.5 8698.0 -32 -0.36% year-end rate hike by the Federal Reserve remained intact. The
NIFTY 8691.3 8709.0 -18 -0.20% market was pricing in a greater than 78% chance that the Fed would
SENSEX 28091.4 28179.1 -88 -0.31% raise rates in December, up from 68% on Friday, according to CME
HANG-SENG 23454.9 23565.1 -110 -0.47% Group's Fed Watch program. The dollar index stood at 98.721 after
NIKKEI 17331.5 17365.3 -34 -0.19% rising as high as 99.119 yesterday, its highest level since Feb. 1.
SHANGHAI 3124.4 3131.9 -8 -0.24% The euro is quoting around $1.0886, after slipping to an almost
eight-month low of $1.0848 on Tuesday. Dollar against the yen,
S&P INDEX 2143.2 2151.3 -8 -0.38%
drifts lower 0.1% to 104.13, down from a roughly three-month high
DOW JONES 18169.3 18223.0 -54 -0.30% of 104.87 yen touched in overnight.
NASDAQ 5283.4 5309.8 -26 -0.50%
U.S. data released on Tuesday by the Conference Board showed the
FTSE 7017.6 6986.4 31 0.45% consumer confidence index dropped to 98.6 in October from a
CAC 4540.8 4552.6 -12 -0.26% downwardly revised 103.5 in September. Also, data from the US
DAX 10757.3 10761.2 -4 -0.04% S&P/Case-Shiller showed that its home price index registered a
5.3% annual gain in August, up from 5.0% last month.
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr)
BoE Governor Mark Carney cast doubt on expectations for more
monetary stimulus in Europe, saying that the BoE would
Segment 25-Oct-16 24-Oct-16 undoubtedly take sterlings weakness into account at its rate
setting meeting next week.
Equity -391.91 -221.94
The outlook for the dollar remains bullish backed by monetary
Debt 763.82 212.51
tightening as well as technical chart setup. In near term, the buck
could find psychological resistance around 100 mark while support
near 97.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR NOV. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR Nov. Future is hovering around 20 SDMA, placed near 67.20. Also, it has been trading well below 200 SDMA implies long
term negative trend.
MACD has been placed near zero line with MACD moving above MACD average suggesting consolidation.
The pair is having resistance around 67.27, the falling trend line adjoining high 68.60 and low of 67.78.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR 67.17 67.18 66.95 67.04 67.10 67.25 67.33 67.40
EURINR 73.17 73.20 73.03 73.09 73.13 73.24 73.30 73.34
GBPINR 82.26 82.25 82.05 82.11 82.19 82.33 82.39 82.47
JPYINR 64.29 64.32 64.01 64.12 64.21 64.40 64.51 64.60

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 66.94 66.66 67.14 66.40 68.79 64.92 66.81 66.69 66.81 67.00 67.08
EURINR 73.64 72.76 75.44 72.66 77.49 70.24 73.01 73.99 74.63 74.79 74.78
GBPINR 82.22 81.18 88.91 81.18 101.87 81.18 81.85 83.17 86.07 88.29 92.33
JPYINR 64.57 63.92 66.78 63.92 68.11 53.32 64.32 64.65 65.35 65.09 62.58

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.93 66.93 66.82 66.83 -0.03 -- -- -- --
USDINR NOV. FUT. 67.12 67.27 67.12 67.17 -0.03 1334841 250999 469552 98153
SPOT EURINR 72.75 72.83 72.69 72.74 -0.12 -- -- -- --
EURINR NOV. FUT. 73.24 73.27 73.16 73.17 -0.13 27874 2152 9198 -2612
SPOT GBPINR 81.68 81.81 81.68 81.75 -0.11 -- -- -- --
GBPINR NOV. FUT. 82.27 82.32 82.18 82.26 -0.07 29426 12375 29064 21445
SPOT JPYINR 64.01 64.09 63.92 63.92 -0.41 -- -- -- --
JPYINR NOV. FUT. 64.42 64.43 64.23 64.29 -0.35 17805 5950 17112 11434

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

10/25/2016 18:30 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Aug 0.40% 0.70% 0.50%
10/25/2016 19:30 US Consumer Confidence Index Oct 101.5 98.6 103.5
10/25/2016 19:30 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct -4 -4 -8
10/25/2016 19:30 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Oct 47.5 51.3 46.7

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

10/26/2016 14:00 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Sep 37350 36997
10/26/2016 16:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 21-Oct -- 0.60%
10/26/2016 19:15 US Markit US Services PMI Oct P 52.5 52.3
10/26/2016 19:30 US New Home Sales Sep 600k 609k

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]