\

PERGAMON

Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

Review of the present!day geodynamics of the Pannonian

basin] progress and problems
Gabor Badaa\\ Frank Horvathb\ Peter Gernerb\ Istvan Fejesc
a

Department of Applied and Environmental Geology\ Eotvos University\ Mu zeum krt[ 3:A\ H!0977 Budapest\ Hungary
b
Department of Geophysics\ Eotvos University\ Ludovika te r 1\ H!0972 Budapest\ Hungary
c 
FOMI Satellite Geodetic Observatory\ P[O[ Box 435\ H!0262 Budapest\ Hungary
Received 7 August 0886^ received in revised form 02 February 0887^ accepted 5 March 0887

Abstract
We present a comprehensive review on what we have learned during the last decade and what we need to
know in the future about the present!day crustal deformation and geodynamics of the Pannonian basin
and its surroundings[
The recent tectonic activity of the region is controlled primarily by the counterclockwise rotation of the
Adriatic microplate relative to Europe around a pole in the Western Alps[ Due to the indentation of this
crustal block against the Southern AlpineDinaric fold and thrust belt\ intense shortening is e}ecting these
orogens as evidenced by the general seismicity pattern and crustal deformation[ The present!day kinematics
of the Pannonian basin shows that the area is pushed from the south!southwest[ As a result\ strike!slip to
compressive faulting is observed well inside the Pannonian basin and\ furthermore\ the nearly complete
absence of normal faulting in the whole study area suggests that extension in the Pannonian basin has
been _nished and structural inversion is in progress[ Due to an increase of intraplate compressional stress
the Pannonian lithosphere exhibits large!scale bending manifested by the Quaternary subsidence and uplift
history[
The orientation of the modern tectonic stress _eld in and around the Pannonian basin shows a remarkable
radial pattern of maximum horizontal stress around the Adriatic microplate[ NS directed compression
observed at its northern tip in the Southern Alps gradually becomes NESW oriented along the Dinaric
belt[ This pattern is further traceable well inside the Pannonian basin\ while in the Vrancea zone of the
southeastern Carpathians EW to ESEWNW directed compression can be determined[ Finite element
stress modelling suggests that the stress regime in the Pannonian basin is governed by distinct tectonic
factors in the overall convergent setting associated with the AfricaEurope collision[ The most important
stress source appears to be the active push of the Adriatic microplate[ Additional boundary conditions\
such as the deformation of crustal blocks with di}erent geometry and rigidity at the margin of the
PannonianCarpathian area and the e}ect of active compression in the Vrancea zone\ signi_cantly in~uence
the stress regime and pattern[
Finally\ with a brief overview about the principal aims of the Central Europe Regional Geodynamic

 Corresponding author[ Tel[:fax] 25!0!1553881^ e!mail] badairis[elte[hu

91532696:88:, ! see front matter 0888 Elsevier Science Ltd[ All rights reserved[
PII] S 9 1 5 3 ! 2 6 9 6 " 8 7 # 9 9 9 0 2 ! 0

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Project "CERGOP#\ we argue for the need of further investigations applying the latest techniques of space
geodesy "GPS#[ This international cooperation can provide an excellent opportunity to further develop
our understanding of the recent crustal deformation in Central Europe and to re_ne concepts and models
about the tectonic inversion of sedimentary basins with back!arc origin[ 0888 Elsevier Science Ltd[ All
rights reserved[

0[ Introduction
During the last decade\ several attempts have been made to determine the main characteristics
of the present!day geodynamics in the Pannonian basin and its surroundings "Fig[ 0#[ Until very
recent times\ only limited data sets were employed to work out neotectonic models focusing on
this region "Karnik et al[\ 0866^ Ritsema\ 0863^ Horvath\ 0873\ 0877^ Gutdeutsch and Aric\ 0877^
Prohazkova and Roth\ 0882# or\ at a larger scale\ the whole Mediterranean "e[g[ Horvath and

Fig[ 0[ Main tectonic domains in Central Europe[ Dotted lines indicate political boundaries[ Insert shows the area of
interest\ the Pannonian basin and its surroundings[

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492

Berckhemer\ 0871^ Udias\ 0871^ Anderson and Jackson\ 0876^ Dewey et al[\ 0878^ Mantovani
et al[\ 0889^ Mantovani et al[\ 0882#[ Basically\ these models applied the results of classical
seismotectonic and kinematic studies\ subsidence analysis and paleomagnetic measurements[
During the last couple of years\ however\ the situation has changed substantially[ The advent of
advanced geophysical methods e[g[ high!resolution seismic pro_ling "Vakarcs et al[\ 0883^ Sacchi
et al[\ 0886^ Toth et al[\ 0886#\ measurements of the modern tectonic stress _eld "Dovenyi and
Horvath\ 0889^ Muller et al[\ 0881^ Gerner et al[\ 0886# and seismic tomography "Spakman\ 0889^
Wortel and Spakman\ 0881# provided huge amounts of new information[ Last but not least\ the
fast development of computational power during the past years made possible the e}ective use
of qualitative and quantitative modelling techniques simulating deformational processes "e[g[
Grunthal and Stromeyer\ 0881^ Horvath and Cloetingh\ 0885^ Bada et al[\ 0887#[
Due to the impact of neotectonic processes on hydrocarbon prospect and environmental issues\
an urgent need has arisen for kinematic and dynamic models integrating all information derived
from {traditional| and {modern| studies[ On the other hand\ one should keep in mind that dealing
with the neotectonics and present!day dynamics of a semi!active area is\ by its nature\ always a
risky task[ In order to accomplish this task and to derive reliable new _ndings\ only an integrative
way of looking at the available data can guarantee success[ This is especially the case with the
Pannonian basin\ where the tectonic regime has been changing for only a couple of million years
and the related structures are not yet well de_ned[ In addition to that\ the level of seismicity is
also remarkably lower relative to active Mediterranean margins "i[e[ Hellenic and Calabrian
arcs#[ These are indeed major challenges that motivated our work[
The principal objective of this paper is to present an integrated study about the present!day
geodynamics of the Pannonian basin and neighbouring orogens[ Doing so\ we critically review
what we have learned on this topic during the last decade[ We primarily concentrate on the
progress that has been made during recent years and point out some of the remaining problems
which we hope can be solved in the near future[ Since the recent tectonic activity can be properly
interpreted only in the light of the Late Neogene through Quaternary evolution of the region\
_rst a summary is provided on current plate tectonic concepts and models concerning the
formation\ evolution and late!stage inversion of the Pannonian basin[ Then\ we review the
available information from di}erent _elds of earth sciences including geology\ geophysics and
geodesy[ This is followed by a discussion on the quality and use of published data and models[
At the end\ we make some suggestions about possible directions of future investigations possibly
decreasing the existing uncertainties of this subject[ Within this frame\ we brie~y introduce the
Central Europe Regional Geodynamic Project "CERGOP#\ which is an international cooperation
established to measure the present!day crustal movements in Central Europe by means of high!
accuracy space geodetic "GPS# techniques[ Most probably\ this and similar projects will play a
leading role in future studies on the recent kinematics and geodynamics of the Pannonian basin
and surrounding areas[

1[ Geological setting of the study area] late Alpine tectonic evolution of the Pannonian basin
The Pannonian basin and its surroundings are comprised of various tectonic units with
signi_cantly di}erent origin and evolution "see Csontos et al[\ 0881 and references therein#[ These

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units form an integral part of the Alpine orogenic belt "Fig[ 0#[ Continental and oceanic rifting
occurred during the Triassic and Jurassic period and this broad area was then compressed during
the overall Cretaceous through Cenozoic convergence "Dercourt et al[\ 0875^ Dewey et al[\ 0878^
Yilmaz et al[\ 0885#[ Continental collision in the Alps started during the Late Eocene and\ as a
consequence of the still ongoing AfricaEurope convergence\ intense orogenic activity is still
detectable over the whole region[ Of key importance in the central Mediterranean puzzle of
crustal blocks is the behaviour of the Adriatic microplate "see e[g[ Channell and Horvath\ 0865^
D|Argenio et al[\ 0879^ Platt et al[\ 0878#[ The indentation of this relatively rigid unit to Europe
continued during the Neogene "Ratschbacher\ 0880^ Laubsher\ 0885# and even recent times
"Anderson\ 0876^ Anderson and Jackson\ 0876^ Laubscher\ 0880^ Ward\ 0883#[
The relatively ~at Pannonian basin is surrounded by mountain ranges of the Eastern Alps\ the
Dinarides and the Carpathians "Fig[ 1#[ There is a general agreement that the formation of the
basin system in the Pannonian area was controlled by three main tectonic processes[ However\
their relative importance is still a topic of intense debate[ On one hand\ gravitational collapse of
former overthickened orogenic terrains and\ as a consequence\ orogen parallel extension played

Fig[ 1[ Structural units in and around the Pannonian " for location see Fig[ 0#[ 0] Molasse belt^ 1] Flysch belt^ 2] internal
pre!Tertiary units^ 3] Penninicum^ 4] Vardar belt and the Rhodope Mts[^ 5] Pieniny Klippen Belt^ 6] Neogene to
Quaternary alkaline and calc!alkaline volcanites^ 7] strike!slip faults^ 8] normal and low!angle normal "black squares#
faults^ 09] fold and thrust faults^ 00] movement direction of major crustal blocks[ DB] Drava basin^ ESB] East Slovakian
basin^ GHP] Great Hungarian Plain^ LHP] Little Hungarian Plain^ ST] Sava trough^ TB] Transylvanian basin^ TR]
Transdanubian Range^ VB] Vienna basin[ Faults depicted by heavy lines separate major crustal blocks\ i[e[ the ALCAPA
and Tisza!Dacides units[

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494

dominant role in the formation and initial subsidence of the Pannonian basin "Ratschbacher et
al[\ 0880^ Tari et al[\ 0881\ 0886#[ On the other hand\ it is to be taken into consideration that
shortening in the thrust and fold belt of the Outer Carpathians "Roure et al[\ 0882^ Ellouz and
Roca\ 0883# roughly equals to the amount of simultaneous extension in the Pannonian basin
"Tari et al[\ 0884#[ This suggests the back!arc origin of the Pannonian basin and provides evidence
for the great importance of subduction rollback beneath the Carpathian chain facilitating exten!
sion in the basin interior "Royden\ 0877^ Royden\ 0882^ Sandulescu\ 0877^ Csontos et al[\ 0881^
Fodor et al[\ 0886#[ Moreover\ stretching and thinning of the Pannonian lithosphere resulted in
an asthenosphere updoming and further thermal subsidence of the basin during the Late Miocene
and Early Pliocene[ The subsidence pattern in the Pannonian basin is traditionally described in
terms of a short and active syn!rift phase during the late Early to Middle Miocene period followed
by a longer and relatively quiet post!rift stage during Late Miocene to Early Pliocene times
"Horvath\ 0882#[ More recently\ Huismans et al[ "0886# has proposed important modi_cation of
the above mechanisms responsible for the formation and evolution of the Pannonian basin[ Their
results of dynamic modelling suggest that after a short period of passive rifting "i[e[ induced by
plate boundary forces#\ the thinning and subsidence of the basin was dominated by the convective
upwelling of an astenosphere dome underlying the rift system[ In this way\ during the late syn!
rift and early post!rift period domal forces determined the evolution of the Pannonian basin
which caused a signi_cant change from passive to active rifting mode[ Finally\ Horvath and
Cloetingh "0885# demonstrated signi_cant late!stage subsidence anomalies during Late Pliocene
through Quaternary times[ They concluded that basin formation and extension in the Intra!
Carpathian region has come to an end and structural inversion of the Pannonian basin is in
progress[
In Fig[ 1\ we depict the major Late Neogene tectonic elements of the Pannonian basin and
neighbouring orogens[ We do so because many of the faults and large!scale lineaments show
recent tectonic activity[ The dominance of strike!slip faults argues for the transtensional origin
of the basin system "Royden et al[\ 0871#[ More recently\ Tari et al[ "0881#^ 0886# demonstrated
the existence and importance of upper!crustal scale low!angle normal faults and related formation
of metamorphic core complexes in their footwalls[
The pre!Tertiary basement of the Pannonian basin is made up of two main structural domains]
the ALCAPA in the north and the Tisza!Dacides in the south "Fig[ 1#[ These units were moving
and juxtaposed during the Neogene and were _nally locked to their actual position in the Late
Miocene "ALCAPA# and the Pliocene "Tisza!Dacides# "Balla\ 0873^ Csontos\ 0881^ Kovac et al[\
0883^ Linzer\ 0885^ Fodor et al[\ 0886#[ This is consistent with the gradual eastward younging of
the last major thrusting along the Carpathian arc"Jiricek\ 0868#[ The only area now showing
remarkable tectonic activity appears to be the Vrancea zone at the junction of the Eastern and
Southern Carpathians "Fig[ 1#[ The movements of these units relative to each other and their
stable foreland was accommodated along NESW oriented dextral and NWSE to EW trending
sinistral faults "Horvath\ 0882^ Csontos\ 0884^ Fodor et al[\ 0886#[ The same holds true for the
Eastern Alps\ where similar strike!slip faults bounded the extruding crustal wedges "Rat!
schbacher\ 0880#[ In the southwest vergent fold and thrust belt of the Dinarides\ NWSE striking
dextral faults accommodated the movement of the Adriatic microplate relative to the Pannonian
basin "Horvath\ 0882#[ It is interesting to note that while the main part of the Pannonian basin
system exhibited subsidence during Late Neogene times\ its southwestern sectors at the Dinaric*

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Southern Alps junction were already slightly compressed and inverted[ This gradual shift or
propagation of structural inversion into the basin interior from Miocene to recent times was
already recognised by Tari "0883# and Fodor et al[ "0886#[
As a consequence of their di}erent geological evolution\ the present lithospheric structure of
the main tectonic domains of the wider study area is quite heterogeneous[ Various geophysical
methods have been employed to determine the lithospheric and crustal thickness values[ Among
these\ the analysis of seismological data\ results of magnetotelluric soundings and both refraction
and re~ection seimic surveys yielded reliable information " for a complete summary see Horvath\
0882#[ Beneath the East European Platform\ both the crust and the lithosphere are thick\ 39
49 km and 079199 km respectively "Horvath\ 0882#[ There are large di}erences in lithospheric
thickness between the Alps\ the Carpathians and the Pannonian basin[ A maximum thickness of
119 km in the Alps contrasts the average thickness of 59 km in the Pannonian basin[ In general\
thick "2459 km#\ cold "59 mW:m1# and strong crust is characteristic for the surrounding moun!
tain ranges\ while\ due to the intense Mio!Pliocene stretching\ thin "1129 km#\ warm "89 mW:m1#
and weak crust is a clear attribute of the Pannonian basin"Dovenyi and Horvath\ 0877^ Horvath\
0882^ Lankreijer et al[\ 0886a\ 0886b#[

2[ Quaternary through recent vertical deformation pattern in and around the Pannonian basin]
inferences from geophysical\ geomorphological and geological data
The vertical component of the neotectonic crustal deformation in the Pannonian basin has
deserved special attention during the past decades due to its great impact on hydrocarbon
porspectivity[ Di}erent methods resulted in a quite coherent picture with respect to the deliniation
of uplifting and subsiding "Fig[ 2# areas although the exact magnitudes of vertical movements
are poorly known[ Similarly\ a widely accepted kinematic and dynamic model to explain obser!
vations still does not exist[
Seismic re~ection data clearly demonstrates the regional scale uplift of the Transdanubian
Range in the central sectors of the Pannonian basin "Horvath\ 0884^ Sacchi et al[\ 0886# "Fig[ 2#[
Nearly the whole Neogene sequence at its rims is tilted away from the axis of the Transdanubian
Range[ Moreover\ these layers are erosionally truncated on their top and show a signi_cant Late
MiocenePliocene stratigraphic hiatus[ However\ it is quite di.cult to determine the exact
amount and age of this uplift by looking at merely the seismic pro_les because sediments younger
then Late Miocene are generally missing in these areas[ Similar uplift has been reported from the
Transylvanian basin and the Apuseni Mts[ in the east "Ciupagea\ 0869^ Ciulavu et al[\ 0886#\ and
from the Styrian basin in the west "Sachsenhofer et al[\ 0886#[ From parts of the Eastern
Carpathians\ an uplift with a velocity of about 4 mma0 "Popescu and Lazarescu\ 0877# was
observed[
Geomorphological data also con_rm the Quaternary uplift of the Transdanubian Range[ Some
thirty years ago\ with the aid of the systematic collection of morphotectonic data on the Plio!
Pleistocene strata\ Moldvay "0854# suggested the frequent presence of Quaternary anticlines and
thrusts along the margins of the Transdanubain Range[ Other sources of information\ such as
the correlation of ancient terraces of the Danube river "Pecsi\ 0848#\ also show that this area has
been uplifted by several hundreds of meters during the last 1 Ma[ Similar conclusions can be

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496

Fig[ 2[ Regions of Quaternary uplift and subsidence in the Pannonian basin" for location and legend see Fig[ 1#[ AM]
Apuseni Mts[^ DB] Drava basin^ GHP] Great Hungarian Plane^ LHP] Little Hungarian Plane^ SB] Sava basin^ StB]
Styrian basin^ TB] Transylvanian basin^ TR] Transdanubian Range^ VB] Vienna basin[

drawn from the analysis of the distribution of the Pleistocene travertines "Pecsi et al[\ 0873#
suggesting the overall but di}erentiated uplift of the Transdanubian Range[
While the Transdanubian Range and peripheral areas around the Pannonian basin are uplift!
ing\ distinct areas in the basin are still subsiding at an accelerated rate "Fig[ 2#[ For example\ in
the Drava and Sava basins and especially in the Great and Little Hungarian Plains the Pliocene
strata is overlain by thick "up to 699 m# Quaternary deposits "Ronai\ 0863^ Franyo\ 0883#[ These
sediments are practically missing from the hilly regions of Hungary[ Determining the recent
topographic position of the uppermost Pliocene strata\ Ronai "0863# suggested that the di}er!
ential Quaternary crustal movements inside the Pannonian basin are in the range of 0999 m[
Furthermore\ in his classical study he postulated that the subsiding and uplifting crustal blocks
are moving along seismically active faults[ On the other hand\ in their recent subsidence analysis
Horvath and Cloetingh "0885# argue for the large!scale de~ection of the Pannonian lithosphere
due to the Late Pliocene through Quaternary build!up of an intraplate compressive stress _eld
in the region[ The apparent contradiction between these two interpretations can only be rec!
onciled by careful analysis of the present!day fault kinematics and style of deformation in the
Pannonian basin[
Traditional precise geodetic levelling surveys provided important constraints on the vertical
strain in the study area "Joo\ 0876\ 0881#[ Repeated geodetic measurements were conducted

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during the last three decades in Central Europe and the Balkan Peninsula to provided a solid
basis for the de_nition of the uplifting:subsiding regions and for the determination of the
approximate magnitude of vertical movements[ It has turned out that distinct areas inside the
Pannonian basin are still subsiding at a rate of about 1 mma0[ These are the Great and
Little Hungarian Plains\ the Sava\ the Drava and the southern Vienna basin "Fig[ 2#[ The
Transdanubian Range\ the entire Transylvanian basin and the Apuseni Mts[ are uplifting at a
lower rate\ while the Eastern Alps exhibit a signi_cant uplift with an average speed of about
1 mma0[ High uplift rates "up to 4 mma0# are detected in the Eastern Carpathians as well[
In summary\ we can now conclude that the rate of recent vertical crustal movements in the
investigated area is in the average range of about 201 mma0 "e[g[ Malzer\ 0875#[ Since there
is no general agreement about the actual rate of vertical strain in the Pannonian basin\ in Fig[ 2
we depicted the areas with Quaternary to Recent subsidence:uplift without any actual strain
rate[

3[ Present!day tectonic activity in and around the Pannonian basin] inferences from seismicity\
modern tectonic stress _eld and _nite element stress modelling
3[0[ Seismicity and recent fault kinematics in the Pannonian basin and its surroundings
The Pannonian basin and neighbouring orogens exhibit a seismicity pattern with remarkable
di}erences in various tectonic domains "Fig[ 3#[ Our database contains a record of about 3[499
events mainly with low to medium magnitude[ 35) of these are within the magnitude range of
2 to 3\ 33) are in the range of 3 to 4\ 7[4) are in the range of 4 to 5 and only 0[4) of the events
had magnitudes greater than 5[ The earthquake hypocentres are restricted to the crust in the
whole region\ with the only exception of the Vrancea zone "Oncescu et al[\ 0873#[ The data
suggest that the East European platform can be characterised as aseismic[ The seismic activity is
also low in the northwesternmost part of the studied area\ however\ some earthquake swarms
occurred in certain regions at the Bohemian massif "Grunthal et al[\ 0889#[ In southern Poland\
most of the observed earthquakes are thought to be mainly mining!generated tremors "Gibowitz
et al[\ 0871#[ The high seismicity of the Southern Alps and the Dinarides indicate considerable
present deformation in the southern part of the study area[ Due to the intense earthquake activity
and\ in addition\ the high quality of the dense seismic station network\ detailed and reliable
seismotectonic models were published for these latter areas "Anderson and Jackson\ 0876^ Slejko
et al[\ 0878^ Carulli et al[\ 0889^ Del Ben et al[\ 0880^ Console et al[\ 0882#[ The location and
kinematics of active faults are quite well constrained "Figs[ 34#[ Authors basically agree that
the observed seismicity pattern\ close to plate boundaries\ is clearly associated with and controlled
by the northward movement and counterclockwise rotation of the Adriatic microplate relative
to Europe[ This is further con_rmed by the latest results of space geodesy[ Using several VLBI
"Very Long Baseline Interferometry# determined site velocities from western and southern
Europe\ Ward "0883# concluded that south of the Alpine chain signi_cant motions are presently
occuring with respect to stable Europe[ In his model\ a hypothesized Adriatic crustal block is
rotating in a counter!clockwise manner with respect to Europe and this movement results in an
intense intendation into the Southern AlpineDinaric orogenic belt[ It is also noted that roughly

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498

Fig[ 3[ Seismicity of the studied area for the last 04 years "after Gerner et al[\ 0886#[ Only earthquakes with magnitudes
2 or larger are shown[ The size of circles are proportional to the magnitudes[ Insert covers identical area and is meant
to help identi_cation of major active faults "heavy lines# and tectonic units " for legend see Fig[ 1#[

the 49 per cent of potential earthquake moment generated by the movement of the Adriatic plate
is released seismically[ In contrary\ the very low seismicity in the interior of the Adria unit veri_es
its relatively high rigidity compared to the surrounding orogenic belts "Anderson\ 0876^ Console
et al[\ 0882#[ Based on independent data\ Anderson and Jackson "0876# and Ward "0883# arrived
at very similar conclusions concerning the position of the rotation pole of the Adriatic microplate]
they suggested an Euler!pole being in the central sectors of the Alps "at 34>N latitude and 5
09>E longitude#[
Another interesting region\ the intensely deforming Vrancea zone\ shows a quite enigmatic
seismic pattern "e[g[ Fuchs et al[\ 0868^ Oncesu\ 0873#[ In plan view\ the earthquakes are localised
to a restricted area in the bending zone between the Eastern and Southern Carpathians\ i[e[ the
Vrancea Mts[ "Figs[ 1 and 3#[ Already some thirty years ago\ the reevaluation of the spatial
distribution of earthquake hypocentres led Roman "0869# to recognise the presence of a sinking
lithosphere segment under the Carpathian arc[ Further seismic studies also indicated a well!
de_ned and steep\ nearly vertical lithospheric slab or\ in other words\ a Wadati!Benio} zone
beneath this region "Oncescu et al[\ 0873^ Trifu and Oncescu\ 0876#[ Moreover\ mediumhigh
level activity is characteristic for both the crustal and mantle part of the lithosphere\ while a well!
de_ned seismic gap exists between the depth of 39 and 59 km[ The deepest events are from the

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Fig[ 4[ Earthquake focal mechanism solutions in the Pannonian basin and its surroundings "after Gerner et al[\ 0886#[
For the sake of clarity\ only a representative selection of solutions is shown[ Heavy lines indicate faults with possible
recent activity "see Fig[ 3#[

depth of about 199 km[ The clear separation of crustal and mantle earthquake activity and\ in
addition\ the results of seismic tomography "Wortel and Spakman\ 0881# suggest the _nal
detachment of the lithospheric slab once subducting all along the Carpathian arc during Miocene
times[ This slab detachment is thought to be the consequence of the disappearance of subductable
material when the outer front of the Carpathians has gradually reached the edge of the rigid
Eastern European Platform "Fig[ 0# during Miocene through Quaternary times "Horvath\ 0884#[
In return\ this process has led to the gradual vanishing of the roll!back e}ect of the Carpathian
subduction which provides a plausible explanation for the termination of further extension inside
the Pannonian basin[ This might be a relevant contribution to the general inversion of the
Pannonian basin system "Horvath and Cloetingh\ 0885#[
In contrast\ the much lower seismicity within the Pannonian basin has allowed to work out
only more simple and less constrained models on the location of seismically active faults[ As a

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400

result\ signi_cantly di}erent interpretations and seismotectonic models have been published
during the last decades concerning the origin and areal distribution of earthquake activity[ For
example\ Bisztricsany "0866# warned that seismic events inside the Pannonian basin have low or
no statistical signi_cance suggesting a random distribution of observed earthquakes[ Indeed\ the
relatively short period of earthquake instrumental record may account for this[ On the other
hand\ Stegena "0868#^ Stegena "0873# proposed that the sporadic and weak seismicity of the
Intra!Carpathian basin system is the consequence of the relaxation of thermal stresses[ His
conclusion was based on the correlation between the energy release of crustal earthquakes
and the horizontal temperature gradient in the Pannonian lithosphere[ True or untrue\ his
interpretation has assisted us to recognise the importance of the rheological properties of the
media in which deformation takes place[
In spite of all these uncertainties\ several attempts have been made to delineate some zones of
increased seismicity in the Pannonian basin[ After the early work of Ritsema "0863#^ Horvath
"0873# was the _rst to compile and interpret the seismicity pattern of the region[ His tentative
model suggests the presence of rather di}use zones of seismic activity mainly related to older
"Late Neogene# tectonic faults[ Later on\ Gutdeutsch and Aric "0877# worked out a simple but
elegant model of moving rigid blocks in the East Alpine!Carpathian and Pannonian area[ They
concluded that the region of active deformation extends to a considerable distance form the
Adria!Europe plate boundary and involves the movements of several smaller crustal blocks
including the Pannonian fragment[
Recently\ Gerner et al[ "0886# calculated the spatial pattern of the total seismic energy release
in order to estimate the amount of active deformation in the region[ They drew to attention that
the intensity of recent deformation in the Pannonian basin is signi_cantly higher than it was
previously assumed\ which implies more intense neotectonics as well[ Moreover\ they constructed
a map of active faults "heavy lines in Figs[ 34#[ For this purpose\ they adopted the results of
local seismotectonic studies\ analysed the spatial distribution of earthquake activity and other
geological and geophysical information "e[g[ analysis of satellite images\ seismic re~ection data#[
A major contribution of their study is that they investigated the style of faulting and kinematics
along fault zones by the compilation and evaluation of more than 899 earthquake focal mech!
anisms[ A representative selection of these focal mechanisms are depicted in Fig[ 4[ The horizontal
component of slip vectors of these solutions were further used to determine the horizontal crustal
movements and the kinematics of active faults "Fig[ 5a#[ For each event the preferred plane of
faulting was separated form the nodal planes either by comparing their strike and dip to the
general trends of local geologic structures or by supposing the same slip directions for the closest
cluster of events[ However\ special care must be taken especially in the case of strike!slip faulting
simply because these focal mechanisms yield two possible slip directions perpendicular to each
other[ Therefore\ we should keep in mind that these slip directions and the location of active
faults in the central and eastern sectors of the study area is somewhat subjective due to the
scattered seismicity and dominantly strike!slip type of faulting[ In Fig[ 5b we displayed the
smoothed intra! and extrapolated pattern of slip directions[ Our aim was to ease the recognition
of the general trends of horizontal crustal movements and\ on the other hand\ to provide an
estimation of the strain pattern for areas with no or few data[ The smoothing algorithm of
Hansen and Mount "0889# was utilised] a similar approach was applied by Reba( et al[ "0881#
and Angelier et al[ "0883# for displaying and evaluating vector type data[ This algorithm provides

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Fig[ 5[ a# Slip vectors obtained from earthquake focal mechanism solutions[ Most of these solutions and the active faults
depicted by dotted lines are shown in Fig[ 4[ b# Directions of horizontal movements in and around the Pannonian basin
derived by smoothing and extrapolating of earthquake slip data using the algorithm of Hansen and Mount "0889# "after
Gerner et al[\ 0886#[ For legend see Fig[ 1\ for discussion see text[

both the _delity and smoothness of the intra! and extrapolated vector directions and\ furthermore\
it also enabled us to use the earthquake magnitudes as the weight of the slip vectors[ The analysis
has shown that these slip vectors are roughly perpendicular to the Southern Alps and the
Dinarides indicating the convergence between the Adriatic plate and Europe[ Similar conclusions
have been made by Anderson and Jackson "0876#^ Slejko et al[ "0878# and Console et al[ "0882#[
The counterclockwise rotation of the Adriatic microplate controls the present!day deformation
in major parts of the Pannonian basin as well[ Here the loosely aligned epicentres are mainly
characterised by strike!slip faulting and\ to a lesser extend\ by thrust faulting "Balaton line and
Drava\ Sava and Medvednica faults#[ The horizontal movements become EW oriented in the
eastern parts of the basin system\ while in the Eastern Carpathians a general trend of NWSE
shortening can be recognised[ This may suggest that the eastern sectors of the study area is
strongly e}ected by active compression originating in the Vrancea zone[ However\ we should
point out that localisation of active faults in this region is quite ambiguous due to the weakly
de_ned linear trends of earthquake activity[
Interesting to note that\ according to the unanimous opinion of Gutdeutsch and Aric "0877#
and Gerner et al[ "0886#\ in the eastern regions of the Eastern Alps crustal wedges are presently
squeezed out from between the Adriatic plate and the Bohemian Massif[ These units are moving
eastward along sinistral "Mur!Murz# and dextral "Periadriatic Lineament# faults in the north
and south\ respectively[ According to Schenkova et al[ "0884#\ the left!lateral movements along
the northern edge of the ALCAPA unit can be further traced south of the Vienna basin and in
the westernmost segment of the Carpathians[ In the Southern Alps and northwestern Dinarides\
pure thrusting or thrusting with dextral component was observed along the Fella!Sava line and
the Idrija fault "Del Ben at al[\ 0880#[ Similar features were determined for faults parallel to the
Adriatic coast[ Finally\ the continuation of the Aegean tensional stress regime is manifested in
normal faulting along EW to NESW trending structural lines in the Balkanides[

G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

402

3[1[ Modern tectonic stress _eld in the Pannonian basin and neighbouring orogens] data and models
In this section we review the results of the e}orts that have been made during the past decade
to observe and interpret the main characteristics of the present!day tectonic stress in and around
the Pannonian basin[ First\ mainly based on the work of Gerner et al[ "0886#\ an overview is
provided about existing stress data and general trends of the maximum horizontal stress direc!
tions[ This is followed by a brief discription of possible stress sources obtained by means of _nite
element stress modelling technique recently published by Bada et al[ "0887#[
3[1[0[ Stress measurements and data base
The advent and fast evolution of stress measurement techniques has led to the detailed
determination of the modern tectonic stress _eld in and around the Mediterranean[ Philip "0876#
was the _rst to present and interpret the contemporary state of stress in the Mediterranean zones
of subduction and collision[ His main _nding for our study area is the recognition that in the
South Alpine*Dinaric chain the tectonic stress has been controlled by the active indentation of
the Adriatic plate into the Alpine belt since Pliocene up to present times[ He also constructed a
map "see his Fig[ 18# showing a fan!shaped pattern of the maximum horizontal stress inside the
Pannonian basin[ However\ his conclusions are based on merely the extrapolation of data from
the surrounding areas simply because at that time no stress data were available from the basin[
Similar conclusions were made by Reba( et al[ "0881#[ Again\ their interpolated map of the
modern stress _eld in the Mediterranean and surrounding area indicates a fan!shaped pattern of
active compression being roughly perpendicular to the curving chains of the Dinarides and Alps
which gradually becomes EW directed in the Eastern Carpathians[
The _rst data from the Intra!Carpathian area were published by Dovenyi and Horvath "0889#\
Gerner "0881# and Becker "0882#[ Contrary to previous and succeeding investigators\ the latter
author suggested that the neotectonic deformation and present!day stress pattern in the Car!
patho!Pannonian region are originating from sublithospheric processes[ Accordingly\ Becker
"0882# stated that the di}erentiated vertical movements\ the high heat ~ow and the stress
distribution can be explained as the surface expression of an upwelling mantle convection cell
beneath the Pannonian basin[ The upstreaming branch of this local mantle dome is situated
underneath the centre of the basin system\ where tensional stress is expected to be predominant[
However\ this interpretation is challenged by the analysis of earthquake focal mechanism solu!
tions which do not indicate any normal faulting but\ instead\ strike!slip and thrust faulting is
prevailing well inside the Pannonian basin[
A recent breakthrough has occurred when the recent state of stress in Europe was summarised
by Muller et al[ "0881# and Grunthal and Stromeyer "0881# in the framework of the World Stress
Map Project "Zoback\ 0881#[ They found that much of western Europe is subjected to NWSE
compression\ which can be clearly detected in Germany and in the Bohemian massif[ For the
region in the Pannonian basin\ they emphasised the lack of indicators for tensile stresses[ Gerner
et al[ "0886# created a comprehensive stress data base integrating more than 899 earthquake focal
mechanism solutions\ over 199 borehole breakout analyses and some in!situ stress measurements
"Fig[ 6a#[ The alignments of the maximum horizontal stress and the main tectonic regimes were
determined\ analysed and interpreted[ Using their data base containing 468 entries and the

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G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

Fig[ 6[ a# Maximum horizontal stress directions "SH# in and around the Pannonian basin obtained by borehole breakout
analysis\ earthquake focal mechanism solutions and some in!situ stress measurements[ b# Smoothed stress directions in
the study area calculated by the algorithm of Hansen and Mount "0889# "after Gerner et al[\ 0886#[ For legend see Fig[
1\ for discussion see text[

smoothing and extrapolating algorithm of Hansen and Mount "0889#\ we can summarise the
primary features of the state of the present!day tectonic stress in the study area "Fig[ 6b#[
As suggested previously by Philip "0876# and Reba( et al[ "0881#\ our data show that the
direction of the maximum horizontal stress "SH# exhibits a well!de_ned radial pattern at the
Adriatic coast\ south of the Pannonian basin[ NNWSSE to NS aligned SH can be observed in
the Southern Alps\ which gradually become NESW oriented[ These directions are roughly
perpendicular to the curving Adriatic coastline indicating active shortening and compressional
tectonism in this area[ In the northwestern sectors\ close to the Bohemian Massif\ compression
becomes NWSE oriented indicating the in~uence of the Western European stress province
"Muller et al[\ 0881#[ In contrast\ in the eastern sectors of the Pannonian region SH has an ENE
WSW to EW trend which signi_cantly deviates from the Western European tendencies[ Only
few data are available from the north!northeastern part of the Western Carpathians] they
suggest NS aligned SH[ Inside the Pannonian basin the NESW to NNESSW maximum stress
orientation is dominant\ and it changes to NS and NNWSSE in the vicinity of the Bohemian
Massif[ This is in good agreement with the cited interpretation of Reba( et al[ "0881#\ Grunthal
and Stromeyer "0881# and Muller et al[ "0881#[ In the western part of the basin system "just east
of the Eastern Alps# data exhibit a quite scattered pattern] here EW to NS SH directions are
observed in a relatively short distance[ To date\ no generally accepted explanation exists which
could account for this heterogenous stress pattern[
The stress regime in the basin appears to be either strike!slip type or compressional "the
minimum horizontal stress is vertical#\ as indicated by earthquake focal mechanism solutions[
As a consequence\ we can conclude that the extension of the Pannonian basin has been terminated[
A new tectonic regime prevails] the Pannonian basin is being pushed and squeezed by the
Adriatic microplate as a result of the ongoing convergence between Europe and Africa[ Since
the subduction roll!back at the Eastern Carpathian orogenic front has completely vanished\ there
has been no further possibility for the eastward extension of the Pannonian basin[ This is the

G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

404

ultimate geodynamic reason of the structural inversion of the Pannonian basin which has already
started during Late Pliocene times "Horvath\ 0884^ Horvath and Cloetingh\ 0885#[
3[1[1[ Finite element stress modelling in and around the Pannonian basin
Several sets of _nite element models have been recently published to analyse the nature and
relative importance of di}erent sources of the recent tectonic stress in the Pannonian basin "Bada
et al[\ 0886#[ All their models treated the study area as a 1D plate with heterogeneous elastic
rheology in~uenced by plain stress[ At this point\ we have to emphasise that these two dimensional
calculations ignore several possible stress sources which might signi_cantly in~uence the stress
pattern in the region[ We are well aware of the fact that tectonic factors\ such as the e}ect of
topography\ buoyancy forces and the rheological strati_cation of the lithosphere can generate
additional stresses[ On the other hand\ these authors tried to simulate inelastic deformation
"e[g[ earthquakes and slip along faults# with simple elastic rheology which is another major
simpli_cation[ Therefore\ the reader should avoid any overinterpretation of the results[ However\
these reasonably simple and straightforward 1D _nite element models are helpful in recognising
and interpreting the gross neotectonic and dynamic features of the Pannonian basin and its
surroundings[ The approach of Bada et al[ "0887# is similar to the one applied by Grunthal and
Stromeyer "0881# but signi_cant advance has been reached by using more detailed and reasonable
geometry and sets of boundary conditions[
The Poisson|s ratio of the whole region was taken uniformly n9[14[ The Young|s modulus
for the relatively weak internal sectors was chosen to be E49 GPa\ for the external regions a
value of E69 Gpa was adopted\ while for the rigid Bohemian Massif and Moesian Platform a
value of E099 GPa was assumed[ A _xed framework was applied at a distance of 499 km from
the edges of the area of interest in order to avoid any edge e}ect or error "Golke et al[\ 0883#[
Four di}erent boundary conditions were applied separately\ in pair and together "Fig[ 7#[ Instead
of applying completely uncertain direct forces at model edges\ displacements were used which
are far better constrained in the region[ To simulate the deformational pattern in the studied
area\ the Adriatic microplate was rotated by 9[0o around a pole at 35oN\ 5oE as suggested by
Anderson and Jackson "0876# and Ward "0883#[ This angle is completely arbitrary and meant to
serve as a reference for the relative importance of the additional boundary conditions[ As a
consequence\ the southern edge of the modelled area "the Adriatic coastline# was displaced by
0999 m to the north at its western end "in the Southern Alps# and 1399 m to the NNE at its
eastern end "southernmost Dinarides#[
The Bohemain Massif forms an important element in the _nite element modelling[ Ratsch!
bacher et al[ "0880# have already demonstrated the key importance of such a strong foreland
in the late Oligocene!Miocene tectonic evolution of the Eastern Alps[ First\ similar to the Moesian
Platform in the south\ it was considered as a non!deforming and stable crustal block representing
a buttress with high sti}ness[ Second\ a SE directed\ relatively slow motion of the Bohemian
Massif was assumed in order to simulate how the Western European stress _eld "Muller et al[
0881# is transmitted into the interior of Pannonian basin system[ This approach is veri_ed by the
presence of a nearly uniform stress _eld with NWSE directed SH throughout the Bohemian
Massif[ The edge at the Southern Carpathians was _xed to incorporate the e}ect of the rigid and
immobile Moesian Platform[ The Vrancea zone was pushed by 199 m perpendicular to the
Carpathian arc because of the active shortening and compression observed here\ derived from

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G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

Fig[ 7[ Parameters and boundary conditions utilised in _nite element stress models for the Pannonian basin and its
surroundings[ Note that a _xed framework in a distance of 499 km from the model edges was applied in order to avoid
any edge e}ect or error "after Bada et al[\ 0887#[

earthquake source mechanisms "Oncescu\ 0876#[ Di}erent amounts and directions of dis!
placement were tested during early runs of the models[ Again\ these values are de_ned to provide
a common basis for the direct comparison of the relative importance of applied boundary
conditions[ The {free| edges\ which are perpendicular to the strike of the Alps in the west and to the
Dinarides in the southeast\ are left unconstrained since no stresses are thought to be transmitted
perpendicular to them[ Due to the presence of the external frame "Fig[ 7#\ these edges can be
deformed only to a certain limit[ These boundary conditions have been combined with other
tectonic elements such as the changing plate thickness beneath the Pannonian basin "after
Horvath\ 0882# and two main fault zones separating the primary structural units of the study
area "after Csontos et al[\ 0881#[ The best _tting modelling result "Fig[ 8b# is shown together
with the smoothed stress directions for the modelled area "Fig[ 8a#[

G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

406

Fig[ 8[ a# Smoothed "observational# and b# best _tting calculated stress directions for the area covered by the _nite
element study[ For location see Fig[ 7[

The modelling results show that the main features of the present!day stress _eld in the
Pannonian region can be fairly well simulated by applying relatively simple but geologically
reasonable boundary conditions[ The best _t between the observed and calculated stress _eld
"Fig[ 8# was achieved when the rotation of the Adriatic microplate was taken as a _rst!order
stress source[ It appears that this tectonic unit is moving independently from both the African
and the Eurasian plates[ Additional and second!order stress generating boundary conditions are
the active shortening and compression at the Vrancea zone\ the slight compression from Bohem!
ian Massif and the presence of the immobile Moesian Platform[ They induce additional stresses
in the modelled elastic plate superimposed on the e}ect of the rotating Adriatic microplate[ Other
parameters\ such as the changing crustal thickness and the presence of two main fault zones in
the study area\ have minor in~uence giving rise to 09 to 04o local perturbation of stress directions
"Fig[ 8#[ Finally\ it is to be admitted that the models described above fail to explain the spatial
stress variation in the western part of the Pannonian basin where\ in a relatively small area\
perpendicular SH directions were observed[ Further\ preferebly 2D\ numerical models are needed
to get deeper insights into the stress distribution in an area with such sudden Moho!depth
changes "E[ Alps vs[ Pannonian basin#[

4[ What we have learned and need to know about the present!day tectonics and dynamics of
the Pannonian basin
The spatial distribution of uplifting and subsiding areas inside the Pannonian basin can be
interpreted as a result of the increasing level of intraplate compressional stresses due to the
general inversion of the basin"Horvath and Cloetingh\ 0885#[ Their model calculations show that
the observed accelerated subsidence in the central parts "see Fig[ 2# and the coeval uplift of the

407

G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

basin ~anks and the Transdanubian Range can be explained in terms of stress!induced litho!
spheric de~ection\ i[e[ increasing intraplate stresses cause large!scale bending of the lithosphere[
However\ with the exceptions of the Drava and Sava basins\ the shape of these areas is in contrast
with the general trend of the maximum horizontal stress directions "compare Figs[ 2 and 6b#[
Since compression seems to be roughly parallel to the axes of the subsiding and uplifting
areas\ this interpretation is somewhat doubtful[ Furthermore\ their 1D modelling results predict
di}erentiated vertical deformation within the range of 099 m\ which is in sharp contrast with the
observed subsidence and uplift magnitudes of 0999 to 0499 m[
Using various geophysical\ geological and geodetic data\ the main characteristics of the kin!
ematics and the general pattern of the recent crustal deformation in and around the Pannonian
basin can be outlined[ The location and kinematics of some major active faults are depicted in
Fig[ 09[ At this point it is important to emphasise that\ due to the rather di}use pattern and low!
level of seismic activity in the central and eastern parts of the Pannonian basin\ to work out
seismotectonic models for these regions is not a straightforward task[ The existing uncertainties
have already led\ and most probably will lead\ to further confrontations of ideas and models[
This is especially the case when one tries to de_ne or localise faults showing recent activity in the
Pannonian basin[ First\ we must distinguish the terms active fault " fault showing activation
during recent geological past\ generally the last 49[999 years# and capable or potential fault " fault
with the ability to cut and displace the surface#[ These terms are not equal at all; Fortunately\ it
is quite di.cult to _nd a capable fault in the Pannonian basin because of mainly two reasons[
First\ the area is covered by young "Plio!Pleistocene#\ soft and unconsolidated sediments in a
large extent[ Plastic deformation of the uppermost strata is dominant that makes the identi_cation
and trace of active faults "mostly brittle deformation# di.cult on the surface[ In their study based
on ultra!high resolution seismic pro_ling in the central part of the Pannonian basin\ Toth et
al[ "0886# demonstrated how brittle faulting is gradually transformed into dispersed ductile
deformation[ In this case\ even the Holocene sediments are deformed\ while on the surface no
faults are visible[ Therefore\ this fault zone can be regarded as active but not capable[ On the
other hand\ where we have more consolidated rocks on the surface\ without the areal distribution
of historical and modern seismicity the age of these formations "generally older then Quaternary#
does not allow us to make a precise judgement on the recent activation of the faults observed
within these strata[
Furthermore\ recent studies on the seismicity pattern in California\ the world|s most intensely
investigated area\ yielded interesting and instructive results[ Of great importance among these is
the recognition that in Southern California "Hutton et al[\ 0880#\ where there is a broad transform
plate boundary\ most major active faults with large and devastating earthquakes "M6# are
seismically quiescent at microseismic level "M0#[ In contrast\ in central California "Hill et al[\
0880# it has turned out that low to medium size earthquakes "M4# are predominant with
the almost complete absence of large events due to aseismic creep[ These conclusions clearly
demonstrate the di.culty of the proper interpretation and precise de_nition of major active
faults by using scattered and low!magnitude seismicity pattern[ We should also keep in mind
that\ due to our poor knowledge on the velocity structure of the deeper parts of the earth|s
fractured crust\ even the precise localisation of hypocentres can be problematic sometimes[
Moreover\ as it was pointed out already by Stegena "0868# and more recently by Lankreijer et al[
"0886#\ the Pannonian lithosphere is extremely weak relative to its surrounding[ As a consequence\

G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

408

Fig[ 09[ Cartoon summarising the main kinematic characteristics of the major faults showing seismic activity in and
around the Pannonian basin[ External forces e}ecting the area of interest is also shown[ 0] Molasse belt^ 1] Flysch belt^
2] internal pre!Tertiary units^ 3] Neogene to Quaternary alkaline and calc!alkaline volcanites^ 4] Pieniny Klippen Belt^
5] strike!slip faults^ 6] normal faults^ 7] thrust faults[ Ba] Balaton line^ D] Drava line^ FS] Fella!Sava line^ L] Lavanttal
line^ Me] Medvednica fault^ MM] Mur!Murz line^ PAL] Periadriatic lineament^ S] Sava line[ Dashed lines indicate _rst!
order tectonic lines separating major crustal blocks in the Pannonian puzzle modelled in the _nite element study[ For
discussion see text[

earthquakes can occur at any given properly oriented fault plane where the local strength of the
lithosphere is lower then the actual magnitude of stress[ Therefore\ seismic activity is not restricted
to the boundaries of large!scale crustal blocks "Gutdeutsch and Aric\ 0877# but rather to fault
zones with low rheological strength[
Nevertheless\ the convergence of the Adriatic microplate and Europe is clearly indicated by
the nearly pure thrusting in the Southern Alps "e[g[ Fella!Sava line#[ In the Dinarides\ thrusting
is accompanied with dextral strike!slip faulting indicating a slight oblique component of Adria
collision in this region "e[g[ Idrija fault#[ The counterclockwise rotation of the Adriatic microplate
is controlling the pattern of recent deformation in the Pannonian basin as well[ The low seismicity
north and east of the Pannonian basin indicates that most of the energy supplied by the relative

419

G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

motion of Adria is consumed at the S[ Alpine*Dinaric chain and the southernmost sectors of
the Pannonian basin"e[g[ Sava and Drava lines#[ As a direct consequence of Adria rotation\ the
eastern part of the ALCAPA unit is presently moving to the east along dextral "Lavanttal line#
and sinistral "e[g[ Mur!Murz line# faults in the south and north\ respectively[
Similar conclusions can be made while analysing the main tectonic factors that govern the
modern tectonic stress in the Pannonian region[ The most important stress source appears to be
the active deformation at the Dinaric front in the south as a consequence of the counterclockwise
rotation of the Adriatic microplate "{Adria!push|#[ The nature of this tectonic unit has been a
subject of debate] it was interpreted either as an African promontory "D|Argenio et al[\ 0879^
Horvath and D|Argenio\ 0874^ Mantovani et al[\ 0889# or a separate microplate "Anderson\
0876^ Anderson and Jackson\ 0876^ Jackson and McKenzie\ 0877#[ Recent results of space
geodesy con_rm its independence from the African plate "Robaudo and Harrison\ 0882^ Robbins
et al[\ 0882^ Ward\ 0883#[
Using seismic tomography technique\ Spakman "0889# and Wortel and Spakman "0881#
detected positive velocity anomalies in the upper mantle beneath the Pannonian basin and its
wider surroundings which\ according to their model\ were interpreted as the image of subducting
lithospheric slabs[ This interpretation is further con_rmed by the fact that the location of these
slab!like structures correlates very well with deep!seated seismic activity[ They concluded that
the once active subduction along the Dinaric chain became inactive due to the lateral detachment
of the subducted slab giving way to continental collision and intense crustal compression in this
region[ Slab detachment happens when thick and buoyant "i[e[ unsubductable# lithosphere
reaches the zone of subduction[ This way the already subducted\ at least partly oceanic\ litho!
spheric slab will break under its own weight[ The evident consequence of this process is the
termination of slab retreat and\ as a result\ the disappearance of trench suction forces that are
responsible for back!arc extension behind the subduction zone[ Instead\ intraplate compressional
stresses can quickly build up[ A similar scenario was put forward for the temporal stress variation
in the Andes by Mercier et al[ "0881# and in the Aegean region by Meijer and Wortel "0886#[
Moreover\ the same holds true for the seismotectonically active Vrancea zone "area of {Vrancea!
push|# which is another stress source at the bend of the Eastern Carpathians[ The e}ect of the
presence of a remnant lithospheric slab under this region was simulated as compression acting
perpendicular to the Carpathian arc[
The Bohemian Massif in the north and the Southern Carpathian in the east form rigid
buttresses[ Shortening at the Bohemian edge re~ects the in~uence of the Western European stress
province in the western sectors of the modelled area "Muller et al[\ 0881#[ The complex e}ect of
these sources is re~ected in the calculated stress directions of the area "Fig[ 8b#[ The comparison
of the calculated stress directions with the recent stress map of the Pannonian area "Fig[ 8a#
shows satisfactory _t except in the area of the western part of the Pannonian basin[ In this latter
region the scarcity of reliable data might also account for the di}erences between observed and
modelled stress directions[ As a summary\ we can conclude that the recent stress pattern in and
around the Pannonian basin can be fairly well simulated by deformations acting at the edges of
the studied area "boundary conditions#[ Finally\ the above modelling results demonstrate that
changes of the crustal thickness and the e}ect of large weakness zones had only minor in~uence
on the calculated stress directions[

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410

5[ Outlook for further neotectonic investigations] the Central European Regional Geodynamic
Project
To decrease the existing uncertainties in the _eld of neotectonic studies\ an international
cooperation\ the Central Europe Regional Geodynamics Project "CERGOP# was initiated in
0882 under the umbrella of CEI "Central European Initiative# Section C {Geodesy| and includes
the following countries that joined the project] Austria\ Croatia\ the Czech Republic\ Germany\
Hungary\ Italy\ Romania\ Poland\ Slovakia\ Slovenia\ Ukraine and Bulgaria[ The three main
objectives of the project are]
, to integrate geodynamic research in Central Europe based on high accuracy space geodetic
"GPS# measurements on an integrated geodynamic network^
, to investigate the most profound geotectonic features in the Central European region\ the
Teisseyre!Tornquist zone\ the Carpathians\ the Pannonian basin and their relation to the
Alpine ! Adriatic region^
, to provide a stable reference frame for subregional\ local or international investigations and
deformation studies[
In Europe\ the CERGOP project _lls a gap of regional research projects based dominantly on
GPS technique[ It integrates researches which were carried out earlier in 00 participating Central
European countries independently\ and gives a frame for solid international collaboration in this
_eld[ The _rst important step in CERGOP activities was the establishment of the Central
European GPS Geodynamic Reference Network "CEGRN# in 088283[ This network consists
of 20 points\ of which all have been carefully selected and well established for studies of crustal
deformation[ From the above concepts it is evident that the main role of CEGRN is to provide
a stable regional reference frame in the area[ The actual number of points and the site locations
for each country was accepted at the First CERGOP Working Conference in Warsaw in early
0883 "Sledzinski et al[\ 0883#[ The geographical location of CEGRN sites and their designated
four letter code is shown in Fig[ 00\ while their names are listed in Fig[ 01[
The predicted 2D crustal deformation velocities in the region are in the order of 01 mm:a
with few exceptions[ Therefore\ in order to detect overall displacements within 35 years 9[3 cm
9[7 cm relative position measurement accuracy is needed over the whole network[ The daily
repeatabilities of the horizontal components of station coordinates "Fig[ 01# are mostly well
below 4 mm "12 mm as average# which is lower than the needed accuracy[ This makes us feel
con_dent that this accuracy can be achieved by using GPS techniques[

Acknowledgements
 [ Simon and T[ Borza "both FO
 MI Satellite Geodetic Observ!
We acknowledge the help of A
atory\ Hungary# in the course of this study[ Editorial help and patience of W[ Jacoby "Mainz\
Germany# is greatly appreciated[ Reviews of K[ Rebenauer!Lieb "Auckland\ New!Zealand# and
three journal reviewers helped us to signi_cantly improve the quality of this paper[ G[ Bada is
grateful for the advises and encouragement of S[ Cloetingh and M[ Golke "Amsterdam\ the

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G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

Fig[ 00[ Political boundaries\ main structural units and location of the CEGRN sites in the area studied by the Central
Europe Regional Geodynamic Project "CERGOP#[ The area covered by this map is identical to that of Fig[ 0\ while the
names of the sites are listed in Fig[ 01[

Fig[ 01[ Daily repeatabilities of the horizontal "north and east# and vertical "height# components of the CEGRN|84
measuring campaigns[ The values are given by root mean square "RMS# in mm[ Note that the average horizontal values
are mostly below 4 mm\ while the vertical components are mostly between the range of 419 mm[

G[ Bada et al[ : Geodynamics 16 "0888# 490416

412

Netherlands#[ This work has been _nancially supported by the CERGOP project "contracts
CIPA!CT83!9003 and MUI:TP:07:0884#\ the IBS "Integrated Basin Studies# project of the
European Community "contract JOU1!CT81!9009#\ and the Hungarian Science Foundation
OTKA "T 908282#[

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