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Ökonometria1 Képletgyűjtemény
Ökonometria1 Képletgyűjtemény
1. Kovariancia:
konometria
Cov (X,Y ) =
2. Variancia:
Kpletek
1 n
(Xi X )(Yi Y )
n i=1
sd (X ) = Var (X )
X = (X X ) / sd (X )
Cov (X,Y )
rXY = Cov (X ,Y ) =
sd (X ) sd (Y )
5. Lineris korrelci:
6. Regresszi a vrhat rtkre:
Y = a + b X
YbX
Independent
Explained
Explanatory
Predictand
Predictor
Regressand
Regressor
Response
Stimulus
Outcome
Covariate
Endogenous
Exogenous
Regresszis koefficiensek:
ui =Yi Ex
Probability-value,
Significance value,
Tail-probability
1. Lineris predictor:
Yi = 0 + 1X i 1 + ... + k X ik
2. Rezidulis hats:
Lineris regresszi
X magyarz vltoz
Dependent
Cov/VarX
ui = Yi Yi
-1.96 = Cut-value
Cut-value = 1.96
Illeszkeds
Pontbecslsek
Yi | = Y SSE Null =
0
(Y
i =1
Y ) = SST
xj
2. Parcilis meredeksg:
Cov (X,Y )
1
1,2,...,k = CovXX CovXY b2vltozs =
Var (X )
Yi| , ,..., = Yi
1
SSESzat . = 0
3. Parcilis elaszticits:
dY Xj Xj
El (Y, Xj ) =
= j
dXj Y
Y
SST SSE
SSR
=
SST
SST
7
j ) / se (j ) ~ tnk
2. Sklzssal:
tj = j /se (j )
3. Xj volumenhozadka %:
4. Volumenhozadk:
j = 1,2,...,k
R2 = rY2,Y = j rY ,X j
Xj
r r r
Z = YZ YX2 XZ
1 rXZ
10
sy
1. Hipotzis:
Htj = dY /dXj
El Y, Xj
xj
r r r
X = YX YZ2 XZ ,
1 rXZ
2. Helyettestsi hatrarny:
j = j
sx
Yx t.975 se (Yx )
1. Xj hatrtermelkenysge:
Y = j X j + u
3. Tbbszrs determinci:
j t.975 se ( j )
1. OLS alkalmazsval:
Standardizlt koefficiensek
Mintavteli kvetkeztetsek
= XX XY
0,1,2,...,k
4. Szimultn becsls:
Y = 0 + j X j
2. t-statisztika:
tn k 1 =
El (Y, X )
(c
q +1 q +1
+ cq +2 q +2 + ... + cq +m q +m )
Xj
11
12
Modellszelekci
Vltozbevons
1. Xj vltoz tolerancija:
1. Hibacskkens:
n
(Y Y ) (Y Y )
i =1
= (Yi Y )
i =1
i =1
SST
=ESSNull
2. A koefficiens variancija:
SSE
var (j ) =
SSR
=Hibacskkens
SST SSE
SSE SSR
= 1
=
SST
SST SST
2 =
13
2
i =1 Xij
1
Tj
SSE
n k 1
14
Y =1 + m Munka +u
2. M direkt hatsa:
Y = 1 + m M +tTke +v
3. M indirekt hatsa:
2
n
2. Relatv hibacskkens:
R2 =
Tj = 1 Rj2
T = 1 +mM +w
F =
(SSE
SSE ) m
SSE (n k 1)
(R
)
(1 R ) (n k 1)
2
R02 m
m =m +mt
Elad: Hajdu Ott
15
Specilis hipotzisek
Koefficiensek egyezse
1. Hipotzis:
16
1. Varianciaanalzis (ANOVA):
H 0 : 1 = 2 = ... = k = 0
F=
2. Szktett modell:
2. Parcilis F-teszt:
H 0 : j = 0
Eszkz (F B)
17
Fj =
R2 k
(1 R ) (n k 1)
2
R2 R02
(1 R ) (n k 1)
2
= t j2
Parcilis determinci:
t j2
R 2 R 02
2
rYX
=
=
X
.
j
1 R 02
t j2 + (n k 1)
Elad: Hajdu Ott
18
Modellszelekcis kritriumok
Lagrange-Multipliktor teszt
2
adjusted
AIC =
Schwarz:
n 1
= 1 1R
max
n k 1
SSE
e
n
H 0 : q +1 = q +2 = ... = q +m = 0
uH m2 = n R 2u
0
2(k +1)
SSE
SBC =
n
n
H0
|Regressed _ on _ H 1
min
k +1
n
1
min
19
Interakcik
Kvadratikus hats
1. Marginlis hatsok:
Fogyaszts = 1 + L|J Ltszm + J |LJvedelem + u
1. Indul modell:
Y = 1 + K Kor + J |K Jv + u
20
Jvedelem|L = j + Ltszm
1 + 22Kor
Y = 1 + l L + (L J ) + jJ
Elad: Hajdu Ott
21
H0 : i2 = 2
2. Feltevs a hiba-variancira:
i2 = 0 + ' Xi
3. Homoszkedaszticitsi hipotzis:
H0 : = 0
u2 = 0 + 1J + 2L + 3J 2 + 4L2 + 5 (J * L ) R 2
4. R2 tesztelse:
22
Heteroszkedaszticits
1. Nullhipotzis:
2. Reziduum:
Chik2 = nR2
23
ui2
= 0 + ' Xi + vi
Mean(ui2 )
5. LM - Tesztstatisztika:
1
2m = SSRSegdregresszi
Nagymints, normalits
2
4. Segdregresszi:
24
A heteroszkedaszticits kezelse
1. Generalized Least Squares (GLS)
A paramterbecsls megvltozik:
Yi
pred .(u
2
i
2. Wald-teszt segdregresszija:
0 +
1J +
2Y2 +
3Y3 +
4Y4 + v
Y =
Xi
pred .(ui2 )
3. R2 - nvekmny tesztelse:
H0 : 2 = 3 = 4 = 0
Elad: Hajdu Ott
25
Strukturlis trs
1. Ktvltozs kapcsolat:
Dummy-kdols:
Indiktor Csoport Ref_A Ref_B Ref_C
DA DB DC
DB DC DA DC DA DB
1 0 0
A
0 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0
B
1 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 1
C
0 1 0 1 0 0
0 = +ADA +BDB
3. Csoporthats a meredeksgre:
1 = + ADA + BDB
Y =C +(A C ) DA +(B C ) DB +u
Elad: Hajdu Ott
27
a kvadratikus trendtl:
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
1993Q1
1995Q1
1997Q1
1999Q1
2001Q1
2003Q1
2005Q1
1994Q1
1996Q1
1998Q1
2000Q1
2002Q1
2004Q1
28
X={A,B,C} Z={F,N}
X*Z
KA KB
KF
KA*KF KB*KF
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
-1
-1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1. Kontraszt vltozkkal:
600
Munkanlkli, Ezer f
Szezonlis eltrsek
H0 : A =B =A =B = 0
ADA +
BDB +
X +
A (DA * X) +
B (DB * X)
Y =+
Kategria-kdols:
H0 :Y = 0 +1X +u
2. Csoporthats a tengelymetszetre:
Negyedv K1 K2 K3
1 0 0
1.
0 1 0
2.
0 0 1
3.
-1 -1 -1
4.
26
30
Log-log modell
Termkjellemzk s szintjeik:
Xr = {x1, x2,..., x p } ,
X2},
2. Konstans elaszticits:
2.
Vltozk: X={X,
3.
El (Y , M ) =
3. Linearizls:
4.
Az X jellemz fontossga:
Relatv fontossg:
RIMPX =
31
Y = e1 +2X+u
e 1 +2 (X +1)+u = Y e 2
3. Paramterbecsls:
d lnY 1 dY
=
dX
Y dX
33
Y =1 +j
2. Paramterrtelmezs:
dY 2
dY
= 2 =
dT T
100 100dT /T
3. Elaszticits:
2 T 2
=
TY Y
Jvedelem
Y =e
+u
34
1 +2D
(3 +4D )
2. Lineris becsls:
El (Y,J ) = j2 = j
J Y
JY
3. Paramterrtelmezs:
El (Y,T) =
2. HatrKiads, Elaszticits:
Y = 1 + 2 lnTerlet + u
Reciprok modell
dY
= 2
dJ
J
1. Laksr:
dY X
= 2X
dX Y
32
lnY =1 +2X +u
cm +t m + t (<=>)1
IMPX
IMPX + IMPZ
1. A jvedelem alakulsa:
dY M
= m
dM Y
4. Volumenhozadk:
5.
m
t
Y = 1M unka
Tke
lnY = ln
1 +2D +3 lnJ +4D * lnJ +v
3. Rtegszerinti jvedelemrugalmassg:
3 + 4D
Y 1
35
36
Y Medin min
i =1 i
2. Least Absolute Deviation regresszi:
min
X i
i =1 abs Yi
Medin |X i
2
n
3. Versus OLS:
2
i=1 (Yi tlag ) min
min
X i
i =1 Yi
tlag |X i
min
i =1 Yi X i
Q |Xi
0.1 d | d > 0
0.1 Yi Xi =
0.9 d | d 0
d
Ktcsoportos Bayes-klasszifikci
normalits mellett
Bayes - klasszifikci
Posterior valsznsg a G csoportra:
PG|X =
PG LX |G
G = 1,2,..., m
P L
g
g =1
38
PCsd| X =
X |g
PCs LX Csd
ahol
Pg : a g csoport (felttel nlkli) priorvalsznsge
LX|g : az X pont (feltteles) likelihoodja a gcsoportban
Elad: Hajdu Ott
39
ML paramterbecsls
Log(Prior*Likelihood) = C(X):
2
1
= lnPriorg ln(2) ln g g2
2
2g
g
+ ling (X) = 2 X = C1X
g
+ quadg (X) =
2.
Posteriorok:
1 2
2
X = C2X
22g
CG ( X )
PG|X = e
L() = i =1 Pr Y = Yi | max
Cg ( X ) = ln ( Priorg ) + ln ( Lg norm ) =
constg
40
Cg ( X )
/ g=1 e
m
1.
Log(Likelihood):
2.
A score:
u =
d ln L()
d
2.
Fisher informci:
Var ( u ) = I
3.
Informcis hatr:
1
Var
I
( G = 1,2,..., m)
41
ln L(P )
( )
42
ML tesztelvek
1. Likelihood arny:
=
1. Feltteles valsznsg:
LR = 2 ln L ln L Chi 2 m
PX =
2. Wald:
W = 1 0
) I ( )
( )
1
3. Score (LM):
Score = u0 I 01u 0 =
/I
(u )
Chi 2 m
I0
PX
P /Q
odds X
= X X =
PX + QX 1+PX /QX 1 + odds X
oddsX =e1 +X
2. Odds-modell:
3.
ahol
4. Elrejelzs:
1 + X = logit ( PX )
PX > C Y=1
Chi 2 m
e1 +( X +1) = odds X e
5. Odds-Ratio:
OR
Elad: Hajdu Ott
43
44
Klasszifikcis Mtrix
Observed
1
0
Binris logit
1. Minta-likelihood:
Predicted
1
N11
N01
i =1
0
N10
N00
2. Nested modellek:
Chi2m = 2 ln (L0 / L1 ) = 2 ln L0 2 ln L1
4. Pseudo R2:
45
R2 =
(2 ln Lres ) (2 ln LTrgyi )
(2 ln Lres )
46
Probit-regresszi
Vlaszfggvny: Csdhelyzet = + Adssg + u
Szeparls:
Csd = 1 | Csdhelyzet > 0
2. A Log(Likelihood) derivltja:
d ln L(P) n1
n
n nP
n
= 0 = 1
= 0 PML = 1
dP
P 1 P P (1 P )
n
3. A trivilis (konstans P) logit-modell:
Csd = 0 | Csdhelyzet 0
Feltteles valsznsg:
+ Adssg
Pr (Csd = 1) =
A minta likelihoodja:
n1
1
=
n
1 + e ML
Elad: Hajdu Ott
L (, ) = PiYiQi1Yi max
Csd=1
47
Csd=0
48
Ordinlis regresszi
1. Kumulatv valsznsg:
2. Kategria-valsznsg:
oddsX (g / m) = e
g +g X
g = 1,2,...,G,..., m
1. Kategrik:
| oddsX (m / m) = 1
2. A feltteles valsznsg:
PG|X =
Pr (g = G) = Pr (g G) Pr (g G 1)
oddsX (G / m)
m1
1. Cut-values:
g=1
2. Kumulatv valsznsg:
50
Pr (g G) =
X =e+X
Y
oddsals / fels
1 + oddsals / fels
Pr(Y | X ) =
(X ) e
Y!
3. ML paramterbecsls:
n
Kategria-valsznsg:
L (, ) = Pr(Yi ) max
Pr (g = G ) = Pr (g G ) Pr (g G 1)
Elad: Hajdu Ott
51
Tobit-regresszi
i =1
52
1. Tobit-modell:
+ X + u | X > 0
Y =
0
|X 0
2. ML paramterbecsls:
2. Megfigyelsi szably:
2
1 Y ( + X i )
i
1
e
2
i =1
n
0 X i
max
j =1
L (, , ) =
oddsa/f =e g
Kumulatv valsznsg:
Poisson-regresszi: Y = {0,1,2,...}
Pr Csd g = Pr g X
i =1
49
L () = Pr (Yi = yi ) max
Elad: Hajdu Ott
1 + oddsX (g / m)
3. A Likelihood fggvny:
Pr (g G)
| si >0
Y
Yi = i
0,missing,egyb
| si 0
54
55
10