CC YU T RI RO NH HNG N CHI PH U T

XY DNG CNG TRNH THY IN VA V NH VIT

NAM
Tm tt: Hin nay ti Vit Nam, lng in nng do thy in sn xut chim mt t trng
ln trong c cu sn xut in, ng vai tr quan trng cho an ninh nng lng Quc gia. T
nm 2005 tr li Nh nc u t kh nhiu cng trnh thy in trn khp c nc, trong
thy in va v nh c ch trng v nng cao. Tuy nhin, cc d n u t xy dng thy
in vn cha c quan tm tha ng, nhiu cng trnh thy in cha c quan tm ng
mc gp rt nhiu s c v ri ro trong qu trnh TXD. Do vic xc nh cc yu t ri ro
c th nh hng n chi ph u t xy dng thy in va v nh l mt vn ht sc
quan trng v cn thit trong giai on hin nay. Bi bo ny xut danh mc cc yu t ri
ro c kh nng nh hng n chi ph u t xy dng cng trnh thy in va v nh Vit
Nam nhm gip cho ngi lm cng tc qun l v cc n v lin quan ch ng hn trong
vic iu hnh v qun l d n gip gim thit hi trong qu trnh u t xy dng.
T Kha: Thy in va v nh, ri ro
1. GII THIU CHUNG
Hn 10 nm tr li y Nh nc u t
kh nhiu cng trnh thy in trn khp c
nc, trong thy in va v nh c
ch trng v nng cao. Tuy nhin trong nhiu
nm qua nhiu tnh cha quan tm y
n cng tc quy hoch, cp php mt cch
d dng i vi cc d n thy in va v
nh m cha quan tm ng mc n cng
tc thm nh, thit k, xy dngThy in
nh tr thnh phong tro mang tnh t pht,
thiu s qun l v ch o thng nht kh
nhiu tnh.
Vic chnh ph loi b 424 d n thy
in, chim 34,2%, trong tng s 1.239 d n
cho thy mc km hiu qu v ri ro trong
u t xy dng i vi cng trnh thy in
va v nh l rt cao.
Vit Nam, vic nhn nhn nh gi cc
ri ro cc d n vn cha c quan tm
tha ng, nhiu s c, ri ro trong qu trnh
u t xy dng cng trnh m suy cho cng
l ri ro gy thit hi n chi ph u t xy
dng cc d n. Do vic nhn dng, phn
tch, xc nh v nh gi mc nh hng
bi cc yu t ri ro n chi ph u t xy
dng d n c gii php phng trnh v

gim thiu c ngha ht sc quan trng v

cn thit.
2. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU
Phng php tng hp, phn tch, thng
k, so snh;
Phng php nghin cu tng quan t cc
nghin cu th gii v trong nc.
3. KT QU NGHIN CU
3.1. Phn tch v nh gi cc nghin cu
ri ro ca cc tc gi Vit Nam
Nghin cu ca Trn Hong Tun (2014)
[3] vi bi vit nghin cu cc nhn t nh
hng n chi ph v thi gian hon thnh d
n trong giai on thi cng trng hp
nghin cu trn a bn Cn Th. Nghin
cu nhn dng v a ra c 26 yu t
c kh nng nh hng n chi ph v thi
gian hon thnh d n.
Nghin cu ca nhm tc gi Nguyn
Quc Tun, Lu Trng Vn v H Ngc
Phng (2005) [2] Phn tch ri ro v chi
ph ca d n u t xy dng trong giai
on thi cng. Mc tiu chnh ca nghin
cu ny l nhn dng cc nhn t ri ro tc
ng n chi ph ca nh thu trong giai on
thi cng t thit lp m hnh m phng

phn tch ri ro tc ng n chi ph ca nh

Thu.
Nghin cu Cc nhn t nh hng n
s bin ng chi ph ca d n xy dng ca
nhm tc gi Nguyn Th Minh Tm, Cao
Ho Thi (2009) [1] xy dng m hnh xc
nh nguyn nhn gy bin ng gia chi ph
k hoch v chi ph thc t ca d n ng
thi xut mt s gii php gii quyt
vn nhm nng cao hiu qu cng tc
qun l chi ph.
3.2. Phn tch v nh gi cc nghin cu
ri ro ca cc tc gi trn th gii
Mai S Hng & Jianqiong Wang (2016) [6]
nghin cu xc nh cc yu t ri ro gy
chm tr trong hp ng EPC cc d n xy
dng thy in Vit Nam. Nhm tc gi
nghin cu ch ra nhng c im ca cc ri
ro tim n dn n s chm tr trong tin
xy dng cc d n thy in. Nhm tc gi
a ra c 7 yu t ri ro chnh dn n s
chm tr tin xy dng gm: ri ro t hp
ng (B1), ri ro chnh tr v php lut (B2),
ri ro t cng ngh (B3), ri ro t cc iu
kin t nhin v mi trng x hi (B4), ri
ro t nn kinh t (B5), ri ro trong vic qun
l d n (B6), ri ro t cc nh thu (B7).
Trong ri ro t nn kinh t (B5) l yu t
ri ro c nh hng ln nht nh hng n
s chm tr tin xy dng d n thy in.
S.Kucukali (2011) [7] nh gi ri ro ca
cc nh my thy in bng cch s dng
logic tp m tip cn. Nghin cu da trn
cc cuc phng vn chuyn gia lnh vc
nghin cu a ra cc yu t ri ro nh
hng n d n u t xy dng thy in
nh: a cht, vn s dng t, cc vn
v mi trng, kt ni h thng in, nh
hng ca cng ng v ngi s dng cc
vng xung quanh, ti chnh, thin tai, chnh
tr, c s h tng. Da trn kt qu kho st
v phn tch cho thy nhng ri ro c lin
quan nht l cc vn v a cht thy vn
v vn mi trng c nh hng rt ln
n d n.

Theo nghin cu ca Carneiro v Ferreira

(2012) [5]; Agrawal (2012) [4]; Leach et al
(2011) [8] nhng loi ri ro tim nng ln khi
u t xy dng cc nh my thy in nh
c cho l c lin quan n d n: xy
dng/hon thnh, cng ngh, a cht, thy
vn, kinh t, ti chnh, chnh tr, mi
trng
Nghin cu ca Patrick WIEMANN,
Gerald MLLER, James SENIOR U.K
(2007) [9] v qun l ri ro trong thy in
nh, ct nc thp th c rt nhiu ri ro khc
nhau, chia thnh 4 loi chnh: th nht l cc
ri ro v kinh t - ti chnh (ri ro vt chi
ph, ri ro gi, nguy c lm pht, thit hi i
vi bn th 3); th 2 l cc ri ro v k thut,
cng ngh (s chm tr t cc nh cung cp,
nh hng ca thi tit, s c k thut, hiu
sut lm vic, ri ro ca s i mi, yu t
bt kh khng); th 3 l cc ri ro v kinh t
x hi (nhng thay i trong lut, thay i v
thu, yu t chnh tr tc ng) v cui cng
l ri ro v mi trng ( nhim ting n,
cht lng nc, thc vt v ng vt).
Nghin cu cng ch ra rng qun l ri ro
l phi nhn thc c tt c cc loi ri ro
v phi c chin lc loi b hay gim
thiu mt cch hiu qu gip cc bn c y
thng tin v a ra quyt nh tt hn.
3.3. Tng hp, nhn dng cc yu t ri ro
c bn nh hng n chi ph u t xy
dng thy in va v nh
Trn c s cc nghin cu tc gi tng
hp c danh mc cc yu t ri ro c bn
(32 yu t) c sp xp thnh 6 nhm c
kh nng nh hng n chi ph u t xy
dng cng trnh thy in va v nh Vit
Nam (Bng 1.1). Tc gi nhn thy c rt
nhiu im chung v mt s loi ri ro gia
quc gia pht trin v ang pht trin. Tuy
nhin cc yu t ri ro li xut hin nhiu
hn cc quc gia ang pht trin ni lut
php cn yu, cha cht ch v cn nhiu yu
t bt n.

Bng 1.1. Cc yu t ri ro tc ng n chi ph u t xy dng d n Thy in va v nh

4. KT LUN
T nhng phn tch trn, tc gi kin ngh
cc vn tip tc nghin cu nh sau:
+ Tip tc nghin cu la chn, b
sung, iu chnh nhm cc yu t ri ro trong
TXD thy in va v nh ph hp vi tnh
hnh v iu kin thc t Vit Nam trong
giai on hin nay v trong tng lai;
+ S dng hai phng php nghin cu
nh tnh v nghin cu nh lng xc
nh kt qu cho nghin cu;
+ Xc nh nhm yu t chnh c nh
hng ln n chi ph TXD thy in va
v nh, ng thi xut gii php i ph,
kim sot mt s yu t ri ro .
5. TI LIU THAM KHO
Ting Vit:
[1] Nguyn Th Minh Tm, Cao Ho Thi
trng i hc Bch Khoa, HQG HCM
(2009) Cc nhn t nh hng n s bin
ng chi ph ca d n xy dng Tp ch
pht trin khoa hc v cng ngh s 01/2009
[2] Nguyn Quc Tun, Lu Trng Vn v
H Ngc Phng (2005) Phn tch ri ro v
chi ph ca d n u t xy dng trong giai
on thi cng i hc Bch Khoa Thnh
ph HCM.
[3] Trn Hong Tun (2014), Cc nhn t
nh hng n chi ph v thi gian hon
thnh d n trong giai on thi cng trng

hp nghin cu trn a bn Cn Th, tp

ch Khoa hc trng i hc Cn Th.
Ting Anh:
[4] Agrawal, A., 2012. Risk mitigation
strategies for renewable energy project
financing. Strategic Planning for Energy and
the Environment, 32(2), 9-20.
[5] Carneiro, P and Ferreira.P. 2012. The
economic, environmental and strategic value
of biomass. Renewable Energy, 44, 17-22.
[6] Hung, M.S. and Wang, J.Q. (2016)
Research on Delay Risks of EPC
Hydropower Construction Projects in
Vietnam. Journal of Power and Energy
Engineering, 4, 9-16
[7] S.Kucukali, Cankaya University,Turkey
(2011), Risk assessment of river-type
hydropower plants by using fuzzy logic
approach,
World
Renewable
Energy
Congress 2011 Sweden 8-13 may 2011,
1432-1439
[8] Leach, A., Doucet, J., and Nickel, T.,
2011. Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness
and project risk. Energy Policy, 39(7), 40074015. 14
[9] Patrick WIEMANN, Gerald MLLER,
James SENIOR (2007) Risk management and
resolution strategies for established and novel
technologies in the low head, small
hydropower market.