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Research Institute
(TERI), India
Habitat Centre,
Lodhi Road, New
Delhi 110 003,
India
Abstract The paper makes an attempt to address the emerging concerns regarding water resources sustainability through a case
study for a large river basin in India using an area-wide
approach. An assessment of water resources development in
the Yamuna river basin, catchment area of c. 346 000 km2, has
been conducted by evaluating present and future water availability. The assessment of present water availability is done by
an area-wide analysis of surface and groundwater quantity and
quality, backed by data from various Indian governmental water
agencies. Based on this analysis, three relevant water
sustainability indicators have been identified for the basin and
acute water stress areas have been delineated. Analysis shows
that out of 80 districts in the basin, at present 20 districts face
high water stress caused either due to depletion in water quantity or deterioration in water quality. A water development scenario is discussed, which examines the prospects for water
sustainability in the year 2025 assuming business-as-usual.
The scenario concludes that by the year 2025 the number of
water-stressed districts will rise to approximately 40. Finally,
options for shifting to a sustainable water resource management path in the Yamuna basin are suggested.
Note The research reported in this paper formed a part of the doctoral work of Kapil K Narula pursued at the
Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi
** Frank Wendland, Forschungszentrum Juelich (FZJ), System Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE),
D 52425, Juelich, Germany
*** N K Bansal, Professor, CES, IIT Delhi, India
22
23
Shimla
Uttarkashi
Solan
Sirmur
Yamunanagar
Kurukshetra
Karnal
Jind
Sirsa
Ganganagar
Panipat
Hissar
Tehri Garhwal
Dehra Dun
Saharanpur
Muzaffarnagar
Sonepat Meerut
Rohtak
Bhiwani
Churu
Delhi
Mahendragarh
Rewari
Jhunjhunu
D istrict boundary
Ghaziabad
B asin boundary
Yam una river w ith m ajor tributaries
Faridabad Bulandshar
Gurgaon
Sikar
Mathura Aligarh
Alwar
Etah
Bharatpur
Jaipur
Mainpuri
Agra
Etawah
Bhind
Kanpur
Sawai Madhopur
Ajmer
Tonk
Jalaun
Gwalior
Morena
Fatepur
Datia
Jhansi
Bundi
Bhilwara
Banda
Shivpuri
Kota
Udaipur
Satna
Tikamgarh
Chittorgarh
Guna
Mandsaur
Hamirpur
Lalitpur
Jhalawar
Chhatarpur
Panna
Ratlam
Shajapur
Rajgarh
Sagar
Vidisha
Damoh
Raisen
Ujjain
Bhopal
Dewas
Dhar
Sehore
Indore
Allahabad
24
region to another with an average annual rainfall of about 1100 mm. However, there are areas in the central part of the basin which receive
as much as 2000 mm per year. Some areas in
the western part of the basin receive little rainfall, even less than 450 mm per year.
Study approach
District-wise time series information for the
Yamuna basin was collected using water resource and economic development data. Data
was collected from various governmental organizations in Indiathe Ministry of Water
Resources, the Ministry of Environment and
Forests, Central and State Groundwater
boards, Central Pollution Control Board, and
Central and State Statistical departments.
Water resource data was collected on
g roundwater (g roundwater recharge,
groundwater table, groundwater development,
groundwater quality) and surface water (river
hydrographs, surface water quality, and major
storages). Economic development data was
collected for the domestic, agricultural, and
irrigation sectors. A common district-wise statistical database was formed for each of the
above parameters. Each parameter was then
classified into high, medium, and low range
classes following national classification norms,
and statistical averages. For example, population density data ranged from < 100 to > 1200
persons/km2. It was classified as high density
for districts having a density more than 800
persons/km2, medium for districts having values between 400 to 800 persons/km 2, and low
density for districts having a density of less
than 400 persons/km 2.
The classification of parameters was followed by trend analysis for each parameter in
order to examine the changes that have taken
place with time. Economic development trends
were based on data for the last 40 years, while
trend analysis for river hydrographs and district-wise groundwater tables was based on
data of the last 15 to 20 years. Trend analysis
Geographical Information
Systems
Further analysis was performed on GIS (Geographical Information Systems). District-wise
state political maps and a Yamuna river basin
map were digitized and overlaid to form the
base map of the Yamuna basin. The maps had
a spatial resolution varying from 1:50000 to
1:200000. Classified datasets, trend analyses,
groundwater table contours and maps indicating groundwater quality were merged into the
base map. This was followed by identification
and evaluation of three water sustainability
indicators, which address the present water
sustainability status for the whole basin as well
as for each district lying in it. As a result of this
GIS-supported analysis, a water stress map of
the basin was developed. Districts were identified as being stressed either due to excessive
deterioration in quality or excessive depletion
in quantity of water resources. The future development of water resources in the basin was
addressed assuming that the current trends of
water use will continue. Based on that scenario
technological options for area-wide sustainable water resource management were outlined.
25
26
Category
Level of
exploitation as
percentage of
recharge
Percentage of
the basin
Over-exploited
More than 100% 12
No scope for further
development
85 to 100%
9
Restricted scope for
further development 65 to 85%
11
Enough scope for
further development Less than 65%
68
Source CGWB 1991, 1995
leaching of dissolved salts, fertilizers and pesticides, before and after monsoon periods. In
New Delhi, saline aquifers occur naturally at a
depth of around 20 to 40 m below ground level.
Over-exploitation has led to the upward movement of these saline aquifers. Certain blocks
in Delhi have already started showing conductivity values in the range of 3000-5000 S/cm.
LS
1500
1000
500
0
200
400
27
Table 2 Comprehensive assessment on the current status of water resources in the Yamuna basin
Category
Impact parameter
% basin affected
Areas affected
Groundwater
25
20
25
20
30
40
Surface water
28
Assessment of water
resources development
Identification and evaluation
of water sustainability
indicators
Three indicators have been identified and
evaluated for analysing the water sustainability
status of the basin. First, two indicators, the
water barrier index and use-to-resource indicator, are applied on a large river basin scale
covering the whole Yamuna basin.
Use-to-resource ratio
This indicator is defined as the ratio of total
withdrawal to renewable utilizable resources.
It is based on the common notion that a region
which withdraws a large fraction of its renewable resources is likely to face water shortages.
According to Raskin et al. (1996) a use-toresource ratio above 25% could introduce potential shortages either due to decreased supply
or increased demand. This is indicative of water stress. Instead of defining firm cutoff points,
it is simply recognized that, as the use-to-resource ratio increases, regions will experience
greater water stress and scarcity. For the
Yamuna river basin, the total withdrawals are
estimated to be approximately 52000 MCM.
With the total average water availability at
153000 MCM, the value of this indicator is
approximately 34 per cent, which again puts
the basin in the stressed category, confirming
the view developed by the water barrier approach.
29
Water resources
developmentthe prognosis
A future scenario has been drawn up assuming
that current trends, policies, and development
goals will continue. The purpose of this business-as-usual scenario is to indicate future
water availability in the Yamuna basin with respect to quantity and quality.
Taking the present population growth rate
of 2.4 per cent per year, the water barrier by
the year 2010 would be 850 m 3/capita indicating water scarcity in the basin. By the year
2025 the per capita availability would further
reduce to c. 650 m 3/capita, moving the basin
towards absolute scarcity.
For a forecast of the use-to-water resource
ratio, estimates of the water demand for irrigation as made by the MoWR (1989) are used.
It is assumed that 1 m3 of water can irrigate
approximately 2 m2 of land. With the present
rate of growth in net irrigated areas at 1.8 per
cent and irrigation intensity of 100 per cent, it
is estimated that the present irrigation water
use of 52000 MCM will rise in the year 2025
to 93000 MCM. In addition, due to urbanization, less land will be available for expanding
30
Shimla
Uttarkashi
Solan
Sirmur
Yamunanagar
Kurukshetra
Karnal
Jind
Sirsa
Panipat
Hissar
Ganganagar
Tehri Garhwal
Dehra Dun
Saharanpur
Muzaffarnagar
Sonepat Meerut
Rohtak
Ghaziabad
Delhi
Bhiwani
Churu
Mahendragarh
Rewari
Jhunjhunu
B asin boundary
Yam una river w ith m ajor tributaries
Stress
Low
Faridabad Bulandshar
Gurgaon
Sikar
M edium
Mathura Aligarh
Alwar
H igh
Etah
Bharatpur
Jaipur
Mainpuri
Agra
Etawah
Bhind
Kanpur
Sawai Madhopur
Ajmer
Tonk
Jalaun
Gwalior
Morena
Fatepur
Datia
Jhansi
Bundi
Bhilwara
Banda
Shivpuri
Kota
Udaipur
Satna
Tikamgarh
Chittorgarh
Guna
Mandsaur
Hamirpur
Lalitpur
Jhalawar
Chhatarpur
Panna
Ratlam
Shajapur
Rajgarh
Sagar
Vidisha
Damoh
Raisen
Ujjain
Bhopal
Dewas
Dhar
Sehore
Indore
Allahabad
31
32
Outlook
The efficiency of the options suggested for sustainable water resources management needs
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