Components of the Composite Indexes

The composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators are summary
statistics for the U.S. economy. They are constructed by averaging their individual
components in order to smooth out a good part of the volatility of the individual series.
Historically, the cyclical turning points in the leading index have occurred before those in
aggregate economic activity, cyclical turning points in the coincident index have occurred
at about the same time as those in aggregate economic activity, and cyclical turning
points in the lagging index generally have occurred after those in aggregate economic
activity.
Standardization
Leading Index Factor
1. BCI-01 Average weekly hours, manufacturing .1899
2. BCI-05 Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance .0240
3. BCI-08 Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials .0489
4. BCI-32 Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index .0271
5. BCI-27 Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods .0125
6. BCI-29 Building permits, new private housing units .0184
7. BCI-19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks .0304
8. BCI-106 Money supply, M2 .3034
9. BCI-129 Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds .3274
10. BCI-83 Index of consumer expectations .0180

Coincident Index
1. BCI-41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls .4822
2. BCI-51 Personal income less transfer payments .2795
3. BCI-47 Industrial production .1292
4. BCI-57 Manufacturing and trade sales .1091

Lagging Index
1. BCI-91 Average duration of unemployment .0371
2. BCI-77 Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade .1224
3. BCI-62 Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing .0615
4. BCI-109 Average prime rate .2445
5. BCI-101 Commercial and industrial loans .1275
6. BCI-95 Consumer installment credit to personal income ratio .2204
7. BCI-120 Consumer price index for services .1866
 Leading index components

1. BCI-01 Average weekly hours, manufacturing

The average hours worked per week by production workers in manufacturing industries tend to lead the
business cycle because employers usually adjust work hours before increasing or decreasing their
workforce.

2. BCI-05 Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

The number of new claims filed for unemployment insurance are typically more sensitive than either total
employment or unemployment to overall business conditions, and this series tends to lead the business
cycle. It is inverted when included in the leading index; the signs of the month-to-month changes are
reversed, because initial claims increase when employment conditions worsen (i.e., layoffs rise and new
hirings fall).

3. BCI-08 Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials (in 1996 $)
These goods are primarily used by consumers. The inflation-adjusted value of new orders leads actual
production because new orders directly affect the level of both unfilled orders and inventories that firms
monitor when making production decisions. The Conference Board deflates the current dollar orders data
using price indexes constructed from various sources at the industry level and a chain-weighted aggregate
price index formula.

4. BCI-32 Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index

This index measures the relative speed at which industrial companies receive deliveries from their
suppliers. Slowdowns in deliveries increase this series and are most-often associated with increases in
demand for manufacturing supplies (as opposed to a negative shock to supplies) and, therefore, tend to lead
the business cycle. Vendor performance is based on a monthly survey conducted by the National
Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) that asks purchasing managers whether their suppliers’
deliveries have been faster, slower, or the same as the previous month. The slower-deliveries diffusion
index counts the proportion of respondents reporting slower deliveries, plus one-half of the proportion
reporting no change in delivery speed.

5. BCI-27 Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods (in 1996 $)

New orders received by manufacturers in non-defense capital goods industries (in inflation-adjusted
dollars) are the producers’ counterpart to BCI-08.

6. BCI-29 Building permits, new private housing units

The number of residential building permits issued is an indicator of construction activity, which typically
leads most other types of economic production.

7. BCI-19 Stock prices, 500 common stocks

The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index reflects the price movements of a broad selection of common
stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Increases (decreases) of the stock index can reflect both
the general sentiments of investors and the movements of interest rates, which is usually another good
indicator for future economic activity.

8. BCI-106 Money supply (in 1996 $)

In inflation-adjusted dollars, this is the M2 version of the money supply. When the money supply does not
keep pace with inflation, bank lending may fall in real terms, making it more difficult for the economy to
expand. M2 includes currency, demand deposits, other checkable deposits, travelers checks, savings
deposits, small denomination time deposits, and balances in money market mutual funds. The inflation
adjustment is based on the implicit deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
 9. BCI-129 Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
The spread or difference between long and short rates is often called the yield curve. This series is
constructed using the 10-year Treasury bond rate and the federal funds rate, an overnight interbank
borrowing rate. It is felt to be an indicator of the stance of monetary policy and general financial conditions
because it rises (falls) when short rates are relatively low (high). When it becomes negative (i.e., short rates
are higher than long rates and the yield curve inverts) its record as an indicator of recessions is particularly
strong.

10. BCI-83 Index of consumer expectations

This index reflects changes in consumer attitudes concerning future economic conditions and, therefore, is
the only indicator in the leading index that is completely expectations-based. Data are collected in a
monthly survey conducted by the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center. Responses to the
questions concerning various economic conditions are classified as positive, negative, or unchanged. The
expectations series is derived from the responses to three questions relating to: (1) economic prospects for
the respondent’s family over the next 12 months; (2) the economic prospects for the Nation over the next
12 months; and (3) the economic prospects for the Nation over the next five years.

Coincident index components

11. BCI-41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

This series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is often referred to as "payroll employment." It includes
full-time and part-time workers and does not distinguish between permanent and temporary employees.
Because the changes in this series reflect the actual net hiring and firing of all but agricultural
establishments and the smallest businesses in the nation, it is one of the most closely watched series for
gauging the health of the economy.

12. BCI-51 Personal income less transfer payments (in 1996 $)

The value of the income received from all sources is stated in inflation-adjusted dollars to measure the real
salaries and other earnings of all persons. This series excludes government transfers such as Social Security
payments and includes an adjustment for wage accruals less disbursements (WALD) that smooth bonus
payments (to more accurately reflect the level of income that wage earners would use to base their
consumption decisions upon). Income levels are important because they help determine both aggregate
spending the general health of the economy.

13. BCI-47 Index of industrial production

This index is based on value-added concepts and covers the physical output of all stages of production in
the manufacturing, mining, and gas and electric utility industries. It is constructed from numerous sources
that measure physical product counts, values of shipments, and employment levels. Although the value-
added of the industrial sector is only a fraction of the total economy, this index has historically captured a
majority of the fluctuations in total output.

14. BCI-57 Manufacturing and trade sales (in 1996 $)

Sales at the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail levels are invariably procyclical. This series is inflation-
adjusted to represent real total spending. The data for this series are collected as part of the National
Income and Product Account calculations, and the level of aggregate sales is always larger than GDP when
annualized because some products and services are counted more than once (e.g. as intermediate goods or
temporary additions to wholesale inventories and a retail sale).
 Lagging index components

15. BCI-91 Average duration of unemployment

This series measures the average duration (in weeks) that individuals counted as unemployed have been out
of work. Because this series tends to be higher during recessions and lower during expansions, it is inverted
when it is included in the lagging index (i.e., the signs of the month-to-month changes are reversed).
Decreases in the average duration of unemployment invariably occur after an expansion gains strength and
the sharpest increases tend to occur after a recession has begun.

16. BCI-77 Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales (in 1996 $)
The ratio of inventories to sales is a popular gauge of business conditions for individual firms, entire
industries, and the whole economy. This series is calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis using
inventory and sales data for manufacturing, wholesale, and retail businesses (in inflation- and seasonally-
adjusted form) based on data collected by the Bureau of the Census. Because inventories tend to increase
when the economy slows and sales fail to meet projections, the ratio typically reaches its cyclical peaks in
the middle of a recession. It also tends to decline at the beginning of an expansion as firms meet their sales
demand from excess inventories.

17. BCI- 62 Change in labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing

This series measures the rate of change in an index that rises when labor costs for manufacturing firms rise
faster than their production (and vice-versa). The index is constructed by The Conference Board from
various components, including seasonally adjusted data on employee compensation in manufacturing
(wages and salaries plus supplements) from the BEA, and seasonally adjusted data on industrial production
in manufacturing from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Because monthly percent
changes in this series are extremely erratic, percent changes in labor costs are calculated over a six-month
span. Cyclical peaks in the six-month annualized rate of change typically occur during recessions, as output
declines faster than labor costs despite layoffs of production workers. Troughs in the series are much more
difficult to determine and characterize.

18. BCI-109 Average prime rate charged by banks

Although the prime rate is considered the benchmark that banks use to establish their interest rates for
different types of loans, changes tend to lag behind the movements of general economic activities. The
monthly data are compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

19. BCI-101 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding (in 1996 $)

This series measures the volume of business loans held by banks and commercial paper issued by
nonfinancial companies. The underlying data are compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. The Conference Board makes price level adjustments using the same deflator (based on
Personal Consumption Expenditures data) used to deflate the money supply series in the leading index. The
series tends to peak after an expansion peaks because declining profits usually increase the demand for
loans. Troughs are typically seen more than a year after the recession ends. (Users should note that there is
a major discontinuity in January 1988, due to a change in the source data; the composite index calculations
are adjusted for this fact.)

20. BCI-95 Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

This series measures the relationship between consumer debt and income. Consumer installment credit
outstanding is compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and personal income
data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Because consumers tend to hold off personal borrowing
until months after a recession ends, this ratio typically shows a trough after personal income has risen for a
year or longer. Lags between peaks in the ratio and peaks in the general economy are much more variable.

21. BCI-120 Change in Consumer Price Index for services.

This series is compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and it measures the rates of change in the services
component of the Consumer Price Index. It is probable that because of recognition lags and other market
rigidities, service sector inflation tends to increase in the initial months of a recession and to decrease in the
initial months of an expansion.
Composite Indexes Chart - The Conference Board
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Jan-59 59.1 35.5 76.6
Feb-59 59.8 35.8 76.9
Mar-59 60.4 36.1 76.9
Apr-59 60.3 36.4 77.2 70.0 100.0 71.4
May-59 60.5 36.7 77.5 50.0 75.0 85.7
Jun-59 60.4 36.8 77.7 25.0 50.0 85.7
Jul-59 60.3 36.7 78.2 20.0 50.0 85.7
Aug-59 59.9 36.2 79.1 10.0 50.0 78.6
Sep-59 59.8 36.2 79.5 30.0 62.5 85.7
Oct-59 59.4 36.2 80.1 30.0 100.0 78.6
Nov-59 58.9 36.4 79.9 40.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-59 60.0 37.1 79.7 20.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-60 59.7 37.4 79.2 40.0 100.0 64.3
Feb-60 59.2 37.4 79.6 60.0 100.0 64.3
Mar-60 58.5 37.2 80.1 20.0 50.0 78.6
Apr-60 58.6 37.4 80.1 20.0 50.0 78.6
May-60 58.8 37.2 80.8 50.0 25.0 71.4
Jun-60 58.9 37.1 81.3 50.0 25.0 71.4
Jul-60 58.8 37.1 81.5 40.0 25.0 57.1
Aug-60 59.0 37.1 81.3 40.0 0.0 57.1
Sep-60 59.0 37.0 81.1 30.0 0.0 35.7
Oct-60 58.8 37.0 81.0 40.0 0.0 28.6
Nov-60 58.7 36.8 81.1 40.0 0.0 35.7
Dec-60 58.8 36.5 81.4 65.0 25.0 35.7
Jan-61 59.1 36.5 81.4 85.0 25.0 14.3
Feb-61 59.1 36.5 81.2 100.0 75.0 7.1
Mar-61 60.0 36.6 80.7 90.0 100.0 7.1
Apr-61 60.5 36.8 80.3 100.0 100.0 7.1
May-61 60.8 37.0 79.8 100.0 100.0 21.4
Jun-61 61.4 37.3 79.3 100.0 100.0 7.1
Jul-61 61.4 37.4 78.8 90.0 100.0 7.1
Aug-61 62.1 37.6 78.8 80.0 100.0 21.4
Sep-61 61.8 37.7 79.0 90.0 100.0 50.0
Oct-61 62.3 38.0 79.0 85.0 100.0 78.6
Nov-61 62.8 38.3 78.8 90.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-61 63.1 38.5 79.2 90.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-62 63.1 38.4 79.7 80.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-62 63.5 38.6 79.5 35.0 100.0 92.9
Mar-62 63.4 38.8 79.8 30.0 100.0 78.6
Apr-62 63.4 39.0 79.9 30.0 100.0 78.6
May-62 63.0 39.1 80.2 35.0 100.0 92.9
Jun-62 62.6 39.1 80.5 50.0 100.0 78.6
Jul-62 62.9 39.2 80.6 20.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-62 63.0 39.3 80.9 70.0 100.0 50.0
Sep-62 63.3 39.4 80.9 70.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-62 63.3 39.5 81.0 75.0 100.0 64.3
Nov-62 63.9 39.6 81.1 85.0 100.0 50.0
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Dec-62 64.0 39.6 81.3 80.0 100.0 42.9
Jan-63 64.4 39.6 81.3 85.0 100.0 50.0
Feb-63 64.7 39.8 81.3 80.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-63 65.2 40.0 81.3 90.0 100.0 50.0
Apr-63 65.6 40.2 81.4 80.0 100.0 42.9
May-63 65.8 40.3 81.5 60.0 100.0 92.9
Jun-63 65.9 40.4 81.7 60.0 100.0 92.9
Jul-63 65.8 40.5 81.8 75.0 100.0 78.6
Aug-63 65.8 40.6 82.3 65.0 100.0 92.9
Sep-63 66.4 40.8 82.4 65.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-63 66.6 41.0 82.5 60.0 100.0 92.9
Nov-63 66.7 41.0 83.2 100.0 100.0 64.3
Dec-63 66.9 41.2 83.3 85.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-64 67.2 41.3 83.1 90.0 100.0 78.6
Feb-64 67.5 41.6 83.3 90.0 100.0 35.7
Mar-64 67.8 41.6 83.4 75.0 100.0 35.7
Apr-64 68.1 41.9 83.8 80.0 100.0 50.0
May-64 68.4 42.1 83.5 80.0 100.0 64.3
Jun-64 68.5 42.2 83.6 70.0 100.0 57.1
Jul-64 69.0 42.4 83.5 70.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-64 69.2 42.6 84.1 70.0 100.0 64.3
Sep-64 69.6 42.8 84.3 70.0 100.0 50.0
Oct-64 69.5 42.7 84.7 80.0 100.0 71.4
Nov-64 69.8 43.1 84.4 70.0 100.0 64.3
Dec-64 70.0 43.5 84.4 70.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-65 70.5 43.6 85.1 70.0 100.0 64.3
Feb-65 70.6 43.8 85.6 70.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-65 71.0 44.1 85.8 85.0 100.0 78.6
Apr-65 71.0 44.3 86.2 50.0 100.0 71.4
May-65 71.2 44.4 86.6 60.0 100.0 78.6
Jun-65 71.3 44.6 86.7 70.0 75.0 64.3
Jul-65 71.4 44.9 86.8 90.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-65 71.5 45.1 87.0 90.0 100.0 50.0
Sep-65 71.6 45.2 87.2 100.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-65 72.4 45.6 87.4 90.0 100.0 57.1
Nov-65 72.9 45.9 87.7 80.0 100.0 71.4
Dec-65 73.4 46.2 87.7 70.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-66 73.3 46.4 88.0 70.0 100.0 100.0
Feb-66 73.4 46.6 88.5 60.0 100.0 100.0
Mar-66 73.9 47.0 88.6 45.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-66 73.8 47.1 89.2 40.0 100.0 85.7
May-66 73.2 47.2 89.7 20.0 100.0 85.7
Jun-66 72.8 47.5 90.2 20.0 75.0 85.7
Jul-66 72.5 47.6 90.7 0.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-66 72.2 47.8 90.8 0.0 100.0 85.7
Sep-66 72.0 47.9 90.8 10.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-66 71.7 48.1 90.5 30.0 100.0 57.1
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Nov-66 71.5 48.2 91.2 40.0 100.0 42.9
Dec-66 71.3 48.3 91.1 50.0 75.0 57.1
Jan-67 71.7 48.5 91.2 50.0 75.0 57.1
Feb-67 71.4 48.4 91.5 50.0 75.0 42.9
Mar-67 71.5 48.5 91.6 60.0 75.0 57.1
Apr-67 71.8 48.6 91.7 70.0 75.0 57.1
May-67 72.3 48.6 91.5 80.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-67 72.9 48.7 91.9 90.0 100.0 42.9
Jul-67 73.2 48.8 91.9 90.0 100.0 50.0
Aug-67 74.1 49.1 91.5 90.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-67 74.1 49.2 91.5 90.0 100.0 28.6
Oct-67 74.2 49.2 91.6 70.0 100.0 42.9
Nov-67 74.5 49.7 91.3 70.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-67 74.9 50.1 91.3 65.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-68 74.8 49.9 91.2 55.0 100.0 64.3
Feb-68 75.2 50.2 91.6 65.0 100.0 85.7
Mar-68 75.4 50.4 91.7 45.0 100.0 85.7
Apr-68 74.7 50.5 92.0 60.0 100.0 71.4
May-68 74.9 50.8 92.3 40.0 100.0 85.7
Jun-68 75.2 51.0 92.5 60.0 100.0 85.7
Jul-68 75.6 51.2 92.4 80.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-68 75.1 51.3 92.8 90.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-68 75.9 51.5 92.7 80.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-68 76.6 51.7 92.8 90.0 100.0 85.7
Nov-68 76.8 52.0 93.0 90.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-68 76.8 52.1 93.4 60.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-69 77.1 52.2 93.8 60.0 100.0 85.7
Feb-69 77.1 52.4 93.9 40.0 87.5 100.0
Mar-69 77.0 52.6 94.3 45.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-69 77.2 52.7 94.7 20.0 100.0 85.7
May-69 76.5 52.8 95.2 30.0 100.0 78.6
Jun-69 76.2 53.1 95.4 30.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-69 75.8 53.2 95.4 20.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-69 75.8 53.5 95.7 10.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-69 76.0 53.5 95.7 10.0 75.0 71.4
Oct-69 75.5 53.7 95.7 20.0 50.0 64.3
Nov-69 75.1 53.5 95.7 10.0 50.0 64.3
Dec-69 74.7 53.6 96.0 10.0 50.0 57.1
Jan-70 74.0 53.3 96.5 20.0 50.0 57.1
Feb-70 73.3 53.4 96.4 30.0 50.0 42.9
Mar-70 73.0 53.4 96.5 20.0 25.0 42.9
Apr-70 72.3 53.4 96.1 20.0 37.5 42.9
May-70 72.8 53.3 95.8 40.0 25.0 42.9
Jun-70 73.1 53.3 95.9 40.0 50.0 28.6
Jul-70 73.0 53.4 95.4 50.0 25.0 28.6
Aug-70 73.3 53.3 95.5 50.0 0.0 14.3
Sep-70 73.2 53.3 95.1 60.0 25.0 14.3
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Oct-70 72.9 52.8 95.0 70.0 50.0 7.1
Nov-70 73.0 52.6 94.7 80.0 50.0 14.3
Dec-70 74.3 53.1 93.8 90.0 75.0 28.6
Jan-71 75.0 53.4 93.5 100.0 100.0 14.3
Feb-71 75.7 53.4 93.4 100.0 100.0 14.3
Mar-71 76.1 53.5 93.1 90.0 100.0 14.3
Apr-71 76.4 53.7 92.7 65.0 100.0 28.6
May-71 76.8 53.9 92.6 70.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-71 77.0 54.0 92.0 50.0 100.0 28.6
Jul-71 76.9 53.9 92.4 60.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-71 77.1 54.0 92.8 80.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-71 77.3 54.3 92.8 80.0 100.0 35.7
Oct-71 77.6 54.4 92.4 100.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-71 78.0 54.7 92.3 100.0 100.0 14.3
Dec-71 79.2 55.0 92.1 100.0 100.0 28.6
Jan-72 79.8 55.5 90.7 100.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-72 80.5 55.6 90.5 90.0 100.0 28.6
Mar-72 80.7 56.0 90.8 70.0 100.0 28.6
Apr-72 80.8 56.3 91.0 70.0 100.0 71.4
May-72 80.9 56.5 91.3 90.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-72 81.0 56.6 91.6 90.0 100.0 64.3
Jul-72 81.6 56.8 91.7 85.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-72 82.5 57.3 91.4 90.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-72 83.2 57.6 91.2 70.0 100.0 42.9
Oct-72 83.5 58.2 91.3 70.0 100.0 57.1
Nov-72 84.0 58.7 91.2 70.0 100.0 71.4
Dec-72 84.4 59.1 91.2 70.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-73 84.5 59.2 92.0 70.0 100.0 85.7
Feb-73 84.6 59.6 92.8 50.0 100.0 100.0
Mar-73 84.0 59.6 93.3 60.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-73 83.5 59.7 93.9 30.0 100.0 100.0
May-73 83.3 59.9 94.2 20.0 75.0 100.0
Jun-73 83.0 60.1 94.9 20.0 75.0 85.7
Jul-73 82.6 60.3 95.2 20.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-73 82.0 60.2 95.8 30.0 100.0 71.4
Sep-73 82.0 60.5 95.9 25.0 100.0 85.7
Oct-73 82.0 61.0 95.8 30.0 75.0 85.7
Nov-73 81.9 61.3 96.1 30.0 62.5 78.6
Dec-73 80.7 61.1 96.7 20.0 50.0 57.1
Jan-74 80.4 60.8 97.3 10.0 25.0 100.0
Feb-74 79.9 60.7 97.3 0.0 25.0 85.7
Mar-74 80.2 60.7 97.3 10.0 37.5 57.1
Apr-74 79.2 60.5 97.9 30.0 50.0 57.1
May-74 79.1 60.7 98.4 10.0 50.0 57.1
Jun-74 78.3 60.8 98.4 10.0 50.0 71.4
Jul-74 77.7 60.8 98.8 20.0 75.0 57.1
Aug-74 76.8 60.6 99.3 10.0 0.0 64.3
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Sep-74 75.4 60.6 99.8 10.0 0.0 57.1
Oct-74 74.8 60.4 99.9 10.0 0.0 57.1
Nov-74 73.7 59.9 100.0 20.0 0.0 42.9
Dec-74 72.5 59.0 100.4 40.0 0.0 28.6
Jan-75 72.2 58.6 99.9 50.0 0.0 28.6
Feb-75 72.2 58.1 99.0 50.0 0.0 28.6
Mar-75 72.7 57.7 98.5 70.0 0.0 0.0
Apr-75 74.5 57.8 97.2 90.0 25.0 0.0
May-75 75.2 57.9 96.2 100.0 100.0 0.0
Jun-75 75.8 58.0 93.7 95.0 100.0 7.1
Jul-75 76.8 58.2 93.5 80.0 100.0 14.3
Aug-75 77.1 58.7 92.8 85.0 100.0 28.6
Sep-75 77.6 58.9 92.5 90.0 100.0 28.6
Oct-75 78.0 59.2 92.5 90.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-75 78.4 59.4 92.2 100.0 100.0 14.3
Dec-75 78.6 59.6 92.2 100.0 100.0 28.6
Jan-76 80.1 60.1 92.0 90.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-76 81.0 60.5 91.9 90.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-76 81.2 60.7 91.7 75.0 100.0 14.3
Apr-76 81.1 61.0 91.5 65.0 100.0 57.1
May-76 81.5 61.2 91.3 60.0 100.0 64.3
Jun-76 81.5 61.3 91.0 60.0 100.0 57.1
Jul-76 82.1 61.5 90.9 55.0 100.0 50.0
Aug-76 82.2 61.7 90.9 65.0 100.0 28.6
Sep-76 82.4 61.9 90.9 70.0 100.0 35.7
Oct-76 82.3 61.8 91.2 60.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-76 82.8 62.4 91.1 70.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-76 83.6 62.7 90.9 60.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-77 83.4 62.8 90.8 70.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-77 83.8 63.1 90.9 70.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-77 84.3 63.5 90.9 65.0 100.0 85.7
Apr-77 84.3 63.8 91.2 70.0 100.0 71.4
May-77 84.3 64.1 91.3 60.0 100.0 85.7
Jun-77 84.7 64.4 91.7 50.0 100.0 100.0
Jul-77 84.6 64.7 91.9 60.0 100.0 78.6
Aug-77 84.6 64.8 92.0 65.0 100.0 85.7
Sep-77 84.7 65.2 92.1 55.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-77 84.6 65.5 92.5 40.0 62.5 85.7
Nov-77 84.7 65.8 92.6 40.0 75.0 85.7
Dec-77 84.8 66.1 92.5 80.0 100.0 100.0
Jan-78 84.0 65.8 93.1 75.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-78 84.3 66.2 93.3 60.0 100.0 71.4
Mar-78 84.5 66.7 93.6 70.0 100.0 71.4
Apr-78 85.3 67.7 93.2 65.0 100.0 71.4
May-78 85.1 67.8 93.7 45.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-78 85.1 68.2 94.1 80.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-78 84.8 68.4 94.5 50.0 100.0 100.0
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Aug-78 84.9 68.7 94.6 55.0 100.0 100.0
Sep-78 85.2 68.8 94.9 40.0 100.0 100.0
Oct-78 85.4 69.2 95.1 40.0 100.0 85.7
Nov-78 84.5 69.5 95.8 25.0 100.0 85.7
Dec-78 84.1 69.8 96.0 35.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-79 83.9 69.8 96.4 20.0 75.0 85.7
Feb-79 84.0 70.0 96.7 20.0 100.0 78.6
Mar-79 84.3 70.5 96.2 20.0 75.0 100.0
Apr-79 83.1 70.0 97.4 20.0 100.0 71.4
May-79 83.7 70.4 97.3 30.0 75.0 100.0
Jun-79 83.3 70.5 98.1 10.0 25.0 100.0
Jul-79 82.4 70.5 98.5 40.0 100.0 85.7
Aug-79 82.6 70.5 98.9 20.0 50.0 85.7
Sep-79 82.8 70.5 99.6 25.0 50.0 71.4
Oct-79 81.7 70.7 99.9 30.0 50.0 71.4
Nov-79 81.3 70.8 100.3 40.0 75.0 64.3
Dec-79 80.9 70.8 100.4 0.0 75.0 57.1
Jan-80 81.2 71.0 100.6 0.0 25.0 71.4
Feb-80 81.4 70.9 100.9 20.0 0.0 71.4
Mar-80 78.6 70.7 102.0 30.0 0.0 57.1
Apr-80 76.8 70.1 102.7 20.0 0.0 28.6
May-80 77.0 69.5 101.9 40.0 0.0 28.6
Jun-80 78.7 69.2 100.9 70.0 25.0 14.3
Jul-80 79.9 69.0 98.9 90.0 50.0 0.0
Aug-80 80.9 69.3 97.7 90.0 100.0 14.3
Sep-80 81.8 69.7 96.6 85.0 100.0 14.3
Oct-80 82.3 70.3 96.1 70.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-80 82.3 70.7 96.1 70.0 100.0 42.9
Dec-80 81.2 71.0 96.8 60.0 100.0 28.6
Jan-81 81.0 71.1 97.1 60.0 75.0 57.1
Feb-81 81.0 71.0 97.2 50.0 75.0 78.6
Mar-81 81.7 71.1 97.0 50.0 75.0 64.3
Apr-81 82.5 70.9 97.1 30.0 75.0 71.4
May-81 81.9 71.0 98.1 50.0 75.0 71.4
Jun-81 81.0 71.2 98.2 30.0 62.5 85.7
Jul-81 80.8 71.5 98.1 20.0 62.5 85.7
Aug-81 81.1 71.5 98.5 20.0 25.0 71.4
Sep-81 80.5 71.3 99.2 20.0 25.0 57.1
Oct-81 79.8 71.1 98.9 20.0 0.0 71.4
Nov-81 79.6 70.8 98.8 20.0 0.0 57.1
Dec-81 79.9 70.5 98.5 20.0 0.0 35.7
Jan-82 79.5 70.1 98.8 30.0 12.5 28.6
Feb-82 79.7 70.5 97.8 50.0 50.0 14.3
Mar-82 79.3 70.4 97.2 50.0 25.0 35.7
Apr-82 79.8 70.3 97.4 50.0 25.0 28.6
May-82 80.0 70.2 97.1 60.0 0.0 28.6
Jun-82 79.9 69.9 97.2 60.0 0.0 42.9
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Jul-82 80.4 69.6 96.8 65.0 0.0 21.4
Aug-82 80.2 69.4 96.6 70.0 0.0 14.3
Sep-82 81.1 69.2 96.3 75.0 0.0 28.6
Oct-82 81.5 69.0 95.6 85.0 25.0 14.3
Nov-82 82.0 68.9 94.6 80.0 25.0 14.3
Dec-82 82.8 68.9 93.6 80.0 75.0 14.3
Jan-83 84.2 69.3 92.9 90.0 100.0 14.3
Feb-83 85.0 69.2 92.8 100.0 100.0 14.3
Mar-83 86.0 69.5 92.5 100.0 100.0 28.6
Apr-83 86.7 69.8 92.3 90.0 100.0 28.6
May-83 87.7 70.2 91.7 100.0 100.0 28.6
Jun-83 88.4 70.7 91.8 100.0 100.0 42.9
Jul-83 88.8 71.2 91.9 90.0 100.0 57.1
Aug-83 88.7 71.1 92.4 80.0 100.0 71.4
Sep-83 89.0 72.0 92.3 80.0 100.0 85.7
Oct-83 89.7 72.5 92.2 90.0 100.0 85.7
Nov-83 89.9 72.8 92.6 80.0 100.0 85.7
Dec-83 90.0 73.4 93.0 90.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-84 90.8 73.9 93.0 80.0 100.0 100.0
Feb-84 91.0 74.3 94.0 75.0 100.0 100.0
Mar-84 90.9 74.7 94.5 60.0 100.0 85.7
Apr-84 90.8 75.1 95.0 30.0 100.0 100.0
May-84 91.1 75.4 95.7 30.0 100.0 85.7
Jun-84 90.5 75.8 96.2 20.0 100.0 92.9
Jul-84 90.5 76.1 97.0 40.0 100.0 85.7
Aug-84 89.9 76.3 97.4 30.0 100.0 85.7
Sep-84 89.8 76.6 97.8 40.0 75.0 85.7
Oct-84 89.8 76.6 98.2 40.0 75.0 71.4
Nov-84 90.3 76.9 98.1 60.0 100.0 71.4
Dec-84 90.9 77.1 98.2 75.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-85 91.4 77.2 98.3 60.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-85 91.3 77.4 98.4 60.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-85 91.5 77.7 98.6 60.0 100.0 57.1
Apr-85 91.2 77.7 98.5 45.0 100.0 71.4
May-85 91.5 78.0 98.9 50.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-85 91.9 77.9 98.9 70.0 100.0 50.0
Jul-85 91.9 77.9 99.2 70.0 75.0 85.7
Aug-85 92.1 78.3 99.3 70.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-85 92.3 78.5 99.1 80.0 100.0 57.1
Oct-85 92.2 78.6 99.9 80.0 100.0 50.0
Nov-85 92.1 78.7 99.9 75.0 100.0 64.3
Dec-85 92.6 79.0 100.1 60.0 75.0 85.7
Jan-86 92.7 79.2 100.0 70.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-86 92.7 79.2 100.1 75.0 100.0 35.7
Mar-86 92.9 79.4 100.5 60.0 75.0 28.6
Apr-86 93.4 79.7 99.7 30.0 75.0 28.6
May-86 93.6 79.6 100.0 50.0 75.0 28.6
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Jun-86 94.0 79.6 99.9 40.0 100.0 14.3
Jul-86 94.0 79.9 99.9 65.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-86 94.2 80.0 99.8 80.0 100.0 28.6
Sep-86 94.3 80.4 99.2 80.0 100.0 42.9
Oct-86 94.8 80.4 100.0 70.0 75.0 57.1
Nov-86 94.7 80.6 99.9 80.0 100.0 28.6
Dec-86 95.2 81.0 99.3 80.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-87 95.1 80.8 100.0 80.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-87 95.8 81.4 99.2 80.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-87 95.9 81.6 99.0 80.0 100.0 71.4
Apr-87 96.0 81.7 99.1 80.0 100.0 42.9
May-87 96.0 82.0 99.3 60.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-87 96.3 82.2 99.3 70.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-87 96.7 82.6 99.1 60.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-87 96.8 82.8 99.2 50.0 100.0 71.4
Sep-87 97.0 82.9 99.4 70.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-87 96.7 83.5 99.7 40.0 100.0 78.6
Nov-87 96.2 83.7 99.6 55.0 100.0 64.3
Dec-87 96.0 84.2 99.4 70.0 100.0 50.0
Jan-88 95.9 84.1 99.8 40.0 100.0 57.1
Feb-88 96.6 84.5 99.6 50.0 100.0 85.7
Mar-88 96.9 84.8 99.8 80.0 100.0 85.7
Apr-88 96.7 84.9 100.1 60.0 100.0 57.1
May-88 96.8 85.1 100.1 60.0 100.0 78.6
Jun-88 97.4 85.4 100.4 40.0 100.0 57.1
Jul-88 96.7 85.7 100.1 70.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-88 96.8 85.8 100.3 60.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-88 96.5 86.0 100.1 45.0 100.0 50.0
Oct-88 96.6 86.3 100.3 70.0 100.0 57.1
Nov-88 96.6 86.6 100.4 45.0 100.0 78.6
Dec-88 96.8 87.1 100.2 30.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-89 96.9 87.4 100.7 40.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-89 96.4 87.4 101.5 10.0 100.0 71.4
Mar-89 95.7 87.6 101.8 10.0 75.0 100.0
Apr-89 96.1 87.7 101.3 20.0 50.0 100.0
May-89 95.4 87.5 102.1 20.0 75.0 71.4
Jun-89 95.3 87.6 102.5 45.0 50.0 64.3
Jul-89 95.3 87.4 102.7 30.0 50.0 85.7
Aug-89 95.6 87.8 102.4 50.0 75.0 64.3
Sep-89 95.8 87.7 102.3 60.0 75.0 57.1
Oct-89 95.5 87.7 102.7 50.0 100.0 21.4
Nov-89 95.8 88.0 102.5 50.0 100.0 28.6
Dec-89 96.1 88.2 102.5 60.0 100.0 42.9
Jan-90 96.5 88.2 102.0 70.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-90 95.9 88.7 101.9 50.0 100.0 35.7
Mar-90 96.4 88.9 102.0 60.0 100.0 57.1
Apr-90 96.0 88.8 101.9 50.0 100.0 57.1
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
May-90 96.1 89.0 101.8 45.0 100.0 50.0
Jun-90 96.1 89.1 101.9 20.0 62.5 50.0
Jul-90 95.9 89.1 102.0 30.0 25.0 35.7
Aug-90 95.2 89.0 101.8 15.0 0.0 50.0
Sep-90 94.7 88.8 101.8 20.0 0.0 21.4
Oct-90 93.9 88.4 101.7 10.0 0.0 21.4
Nov-90 93.4 88.0 101.8 30.0 0.0 28.6
Dec-90 93.5 87.9 101.4 40.0 0.0 28.6
Jan-91 93.2 87.4 101.6 40.0 0.0 28.6
Feb-91 93.9 87.3 101.0 70.0 25.0 14.3
Mar-91 94.5 87.1 100.9 80.0 50.0 0.0
Apr-91 94.9 87.3 100.0 100.0 75.0 0.0
May-91 95.2 87.4 99.6 90.0 75.0 0.0
Jun-91 95.6 87.7 98.8 70.0 75.0 0.0
Jul-91 96.4 87.7 98.4 80.0 87.5 0.0
Aug-91 95.8 87.7 98.0 60.0 87.5 0.0
Sep-91 95.8 87.9 97.4 60.0 50.0 42.9
Oct-91 95.8 87.8 97.2 40.0 87.5 42.9
Nov-91 95.7 87.7 96.9 60.0 75.0 14.3
Dec-91 95.3 87.7 96.7 60.0 75.0 28.6
Jan-92 95.8 87.8 95.8 75.0 100.0 14.3
Feb-92 96.2 88.1 95.3 70.0 100.0 14.3
Mar-92 96.6 88.2 95.1 80.0 100.0 0.0
Apr-92 96.5 88.5 94.7 60.0 100.0 0.0
May-92 96.7 88.6 94.4 65.0 100.0 7.1
Jun-92 96.6 88.7 94.0 55.0 100.0 7.1
Jul-92 96.4 88.9 93.7 55.0 100.0 0.0
Aug-92 96.5 88.7 94.1 75.0 100.0 14.3
Sep-92 96.4 89.0 93.6 90.0 100.0 28.6
Oct-92 96.7 89.3 93.3 60.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-92 97.2 89.6 93.6 80.0 100.0 21.4
Dec-92 98.2 89.7 93.3 60.0 100.0 50.0
Jan-93 97.7 90.0 93.3 60.0 100.0 78.6
Feb-93 97.7 90.2 93.4 50.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-93 96.9 90.0 93.5 20.0 100.0 71.4
Apr-93 97.2 90.3 93.6 25.0 100.0 78.6
May-93 96.9 90.5 93.6 45.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-93 97.2 90.6 93.6 65.0 100.0 50.0
Jul-93 96.8 90.7 93.9 55.0 100.0 35.7
Aug-93 97.1 90.9 93.8 80.0 100.0 35.7
Sep-93 97.3 91.2 93.8 85.0 100.0 35.7
Oct-93 97.4 91.5 93.6 80.0 100.0 21.4
Nov-93 97.8 91.7 93.6 75.0 100.0 21.4
Dec-93 98.5 92.1 93.7 90.0 100.0 28.6
Jan-94 98.6 92.1 93.9 90.0 100.0 28.6
Feb-94 98.2 92.6 93.6 65.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-94 99.0 93.2 93.6 60.0 100.0 42.9
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Apr-94 98.8 93.4 93.8 50.0 100.0 42.9
May-94 98.9 93.8 94.0 70.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-94 98.9 94.0 94.5 60.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-94 98.5 94.2 94.6 80.0 100.0 57.1
Aug-94 98.9 94.7 94.8 70.0 100.0 85.7
Sep-94 98.9 94.9 95.2 70.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-94 99.1 95.4 95.4 70.0 100.0 85.7
Nov-94 99.2 95.7 96.1 55.0 100.0 100.0
Dec-94 99.2 96.2 96.4 30.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-95 99.1 96.5 97.0 30.0 100.0 85.7
Feb-95 98.5 96.5 97.5 20.0 100.0 85.7
Mar-95 97.9 96.6 97.9 30.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-95 97.7 96.6 98.4 30.0 75.0 85.7
May-95 97.5 96.7 98.7 40.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-95 97.7 97.0 99.2 40.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-95 97.9 96.9 99.4 50.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-95 98.3 97.5 99.3 60.0 100.0 50.0
Sep-95 98.4 97.7 99.5 60.0 100.0 28.6
Oct-95 98.2 97.8 99.7 60.0 100.0 42.9
Nov-95 98.2 98.1 99.7 55.0 100.0 42.9
Dec-95 98.6 98.3 99.8 60.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-96 97.9 98.1 99.9 90.0 100.0 28.6
Feb-96 98.9 98.7 99.9 90.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-96 99.2 98.9 99.8 80.0 100.0 42.9
Apr-96 99.6 99.2 99.8 90.0 100.0 57.1
May-96 100.0 99.7 99.8 80.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-96 100.4 100.0 99.8 90.0 100.0 64.3
Jul-96 100.4 100.2 100.3 85.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-96 100.5 100.5 100.0 65.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-96 100.7 100.8 100.1 50.0 100.0 57.1
Oct-96 100.7 101.0 100.1 65.0 100.0 50.0
Nov-96 100.9 101.4 100.1 90.0 100.0 50.0
Dec-96 100.9 101.5 100.3 80.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-97 101.3 101.9 100.2 90.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-97 102.0 102.4 100.1 100.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-97 102.1 102.7 100.1 75.0 100.0 42.9
Apr-97 102.0 103.0 100.2 90.0 100.0 28.6
May-97 102.4 103.2 100.5 80.0 100.0 42.9
Jun-97 102.6 103.6 100.4 75.0 100.0 28.6
Jul-97 103.2 104.1 100.2 80.0 100.0 50.0
Aug-97 103.4 104.4 100.2 85.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-97 103.7 104.8 100.4 60.0 100.0 35.7
Oct-97 103.9 105.2 100.6 60.0 100.0 64.3
Nov-97 104.1 105.6 100.9 65.0 100.0 78.6
Dec-97 104.0 106.0 100.8 60.0 100.0 78.6
Jan-98 104.3 106.5 101.0 70.0 100.0 64.3
Feb-98 104.8 106.9 101.4 40.0 100.0 64.3
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Mar-98 105.1 107.3 101.7 50.0 100.0 78.6
Apr-98 105.2 107.5 101.5 40.0 100.0 78.6
May-98 105.1 107.9 101.7 60.0 100.0 50.0
Jun-98 104.9 108.1 102.2 40.0 100.0 64.3
Jul-98 105.5 108.2 102.3 40.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-98 105.5 108.8 102.4 40.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-98 105.4 109.1 102.6 70.0 100.0 42.9
Oct-98 105.5 109.4 102.7 75.0 100.0 42.9
Nov-98 106.4 109.8 102.5 80.0 100.0 50.0
Dec-98 106.6 110.0 102.3 85.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-99 107.4 110.1 102.8 75.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-99 107.8 110.7 102.9 85.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-99 108.0 111.0 102.9 80.0 100.0 64.3
Apr-99 107.8 111.1 103.2 80.0 100.0 78.6
May-99 108.3 111.4 103.1 80.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-99 108.9 112.0 102.6 80.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-99 109.3 112.2 103.3 80.0 100.0 57.1
Aug-99 109.2 112.6 103.4 85.0 100.0 71.4
Sep-99 109.1 112.5 103.8 70.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-99 109.2 113.2 103.6 80.0 100.0 71.4
Nov-99 109.7 113.6 103.8 75.0 100.0 71.4
Dec-99 110.3 113.9 104.1 70.0 100.0 71.4
Jan-00 110.6 114.4 104.3 70.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-00 110.2 114.5 104.8 50.0 100.0 71.4
Mar-00 110.4 115 104.7 40.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-00 110.4 115.4 105.2 25.0 100.0 85.7
May-00 110.2 115.7 105.4 30.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-00 110.1 116.0 106.2 40.0 100.0 100.0
Jul-00 109.8 115.9 106.4 10.0 100.0 100.0
Aug-00 109.7 116.2 106.7 30.0 75.0 100.0
Sep-00 109.8 116.6 106.8 20.0 50.0 64.3
Oct-00 109.4 116.4 107.3 30.0 75.0 71.4
Nov-00 109.1 116.3 107.9 30.0 50.0 42.9
Dec-00 108.5 116.4 107.6
Jan-01 109.0 116.4 107.5
Feb-01 108.8 116.5 107.1
Mar-01
Apr-01
May-01
Jun-01
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
 Leading Indicators

1. Summary
• The U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose by 0.8% in January.
• In addition to the increase in the leading index, the coincident and lagging index also
posted gains in January.
• Seven of the ten components supported the rise in the leading index. This is a strong
improvement from December when seven of ten components supported the index’s
decline.
• While the leading index posted three consecutive months of decline, the index never
passed the second part of the criteria for an economic recession--a 3.5% annualized
decline over a six month span.

Index of Leading Indicators

Jan-01 Dec-00 Nov-00 Oct-00 Sep-00 Aug-00 Jul-00 Jun-00

Leading Index (1996=100) 109.4 108.5 109.1 109.4 109.8 109.7 109.8 110.1
...Pct. Change 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1
Coincident Index (1996=100) 116.6 116.4 116.3 116.4 116.6 116.2 115.9 116.0
...Pct. Change 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.3
Lagging Index (1996=100) 107.7 107.6 107.8 107.3 106.8 106.7 106.4 106.2
...Pct. Change 0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8
2. Analysis
The leading index rose 0.8% in January. The increase came on the heels of three
consecutive monthly declines. In addition, the coincident and lagging index also posted
increases. While the economy faces real risks, January’s gain eases fears of an impending
recession.
Seven of the ten indicators that make up the leading index contributed to the increase,
which was the largest one-month gain in over two years. The largest support came from
money supply, average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, and average
weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance. In addition, the interest rate spread,
stock prices rose, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods also supported the
improvement. Only vendor performance, consumer expectations, and manufacturers’ new
orders for nondefense capital goods and materials declined.
While the leading index has been declining or flat over the last six months, it has not
signaled a recession. For the leading index to indicate recession, two criteria must be met.
First, there must be three consecutive months of declines. Second, there must be a 3.5%
or greater annualized decline over a six-month period. While the economy met the first
test in December, it did not cross the second threshold. Moreover, the six-month trend in
the coincident index is still posting some gains, suggesting that the economy still has
some resilience.
Economy.com’s reading of economic indicators of all types-- not just the official set of
indicators-- suggests slow growth ahead. While the economy still faces significant
downside risks, a recession is not yet foreseen.
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Jan-59 59.1 35.5 76.6
Feb-59 59.8 35.8 76.9
Mar-59 60.4 36.1 76.9
Apr-59 60.3 36.4 77.2 70.0 100.0 71.4
May-59 60.5 36.7 77.5 50.0 75.0 85.7
Jun-59 60.4 36.8 77.7 25.0 50.0 85.7
Jul-59 60.3 36.7 78.2 20.0 50.0 85.7
Aug-59 59.9 36.2 79.1 10.0 50.0 78.6
Sep-59 59.8 36.2 79.5 30.0 62.5 85.7
Oct-59 59.4 36.2 80.1 30.0 100.0 78.6
Nov-59 58.9 36.4 79.9 40.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-59 60.0 37.1 79.7 20.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-60 59.7 37.4 79.2 40.0 100.0 64.3
Feb-60 59.2 37.4 79.6 60.0 100.0 64.3
Mar-60 58.5 37.2 80.1 20.0 50.0 78.6
Apr-60 58.6 37.4 80.1 20.0 50.0 78.6
May-60 58.8 37.2 80.8 50.0 25.0 71.4
Jun-60 58.9 37.1 81.3 50.0 25.0 71.4
Jul-60 58.8 37.1 81.5 40.0 25.0 57.1
Aug-60 59.0 37.1 81.3 40.0 0.0 57.1
Sep-60 59.0 37.0 81.1 30.0 0.0 35.7
Oct-60 58.8 37.0 81.0 40.0 0.0 28.6
Nov-60 58.7 36.8 81.1 40.0 0.0 35.7
Dec-60 58.8 36.5 81.4 65.0 25.0 35.7
Jan-61 59.1 36.5 81.4 85.0 25.0 14.3
Feb-61 59.1 36.5 81.2 100.0 75.0 7.1
Mar-61 60.0 36.6 80.7 90.0 100.0 7.1
Apr-61 60.5 36.8 80.3 100.0 100.0 7.1
May-61 60.8 37.0 79.8 100.0 100.0 21.4
Jun-61 61.4 37.3 79.3 100.0 100.0 7.1
Jul-61 61.4 37.4 78.8 90.0 100.0 7.1
Aug-61 62.1 37.6 78.8 80.0 100.0 21.4
Sep-61 61.8 37.7 79.0 90.0 100.0 50.0
Oct-61 62.3 38.0 79.0 85.0 100.0 78.6
Nov-61 62.8 38.3 78.8 90.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-61 63.1 38.5 79.2 90.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-62 63.1 38.4 79.7 80.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-62 63.5 38.6 79.5 35.0 100.0 92.9
Mar-62 63.4 38.8 79.8 30.0 100.0 78.6
Apr-62 63.4 39.0 79.9 30.0 100.0 78.6
May-62 63.0 39.1 80.2 35.0 100.0 92.9
Jun-62 62.6 39.1 80.5 50.0 100.0 78.6
Jul-62 62.9 39.2 80.6 20.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-62 63.0 39.3 80.9 70.0 100.0 50.0
Sep-62 63.3 39.4 80.9 70.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-62 63.3 39.5 81.0 75.0 100.0 64.3
Nov-62 63.9 39.6 81.1 85.0 100.0 50.0
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Dec-62 64.0 39.6 81.3 80.0 100.0 42.9
Jan-63 64.4 39.6 81.3 85.0 100.0 50.0
Feb-63 64.7 39.8 81.3 80.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-63 65.2 40.0 81.3 90.0 100.0 50.0
Apr-63 65.6 40.2 81.4 80.0 100.0 42.9
May-63 65.8 40.3 81.5 60.0 100.0 92.9
Jun-63 65.9 40.4 81.7 60.0 100.0 92.9
Jul-63 65.8 40.5 81.8 75.0 100.0 78.6
Aug-63 65.8 40.6 82.3 65.0 100.0 92.9
Sep-63 66.4 40.8 82.4 65.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-63 66.6 41.0 82.5 60.0 100.0 92.9
Nov-63 66.7 41.0 83.2 100.0 100.0 64.3
Dec-63 66.9 41.2 83.3 85.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-64 67.2 41.3 83.1 90.0 100.0 78.6
Feb-64 67.5 41.6 83.3 90.0 100.0 35.7
Mar-64 67.8 41.6 83.4 75.0 100.0 35.7
Apr-64 68.1 41.9 83.8 80.0 100.0 50.0
May-64 68.4 42.1 83.5 80.0 100.0 64.3
Jun-64 68.5 42.2 83.6 70.0 100.0 57.1
Jul-64 69.0 42.4 83.5 70.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-64 69.2 42.6 84.1 70.0 100.0 64.3
Sep-64 69.6 42.8 84.3 70.0 100.0 50.0
Oct-64 69.5 42.7 84.7 80.0 100.0 71.4
Nov-64 69.8 43.1 84.4 70.0 100.0 64.3
Dec-64 70.0 43.5 84.4 70.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-65 70.5 43.6 85.1 70.0 100.0 64.3
Feb-65 70.6 43.8 85.6 70.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-65 71.0 44.1 85.8 85.0 100.0 78.6
Apr-65 71.0 44.3 86.2 50.0 100.0 71.4
May-65 71.2 44.4 86.6 60.0 100.0 78.6
Jun-65 71.3 44.6 86.7 70.0 75.0 64.3
Jul-65 71.4 44.9 86.8 90.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-65 71.5 45.1 87.0 90.0 100.0 50.0
Sep-65 71.6 45.2 87.2 100.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-65 72.4 45.6 87.4 90.0 100.0 57.1
Nov-65 72.9 45.9 87.7 80.0 100.0 71.4
Dec-65 73.4 46.2 87.7 70.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-66 73.3 46.4 88.0 70.0 100.0 100.0
Feb-66 73.4 46.6 88.5 60.0 100.0 100.0
Mar-66 73.9 47.0 88.6 45.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-66 73.8 47.1 89.2 40.0 100.0 85.7
May-66 73.2 47.2 89.7 20.0 100.0 85.7
Jun-66 72.8 47.5 90.2 20.0 75.0 85.7
Jul-66 72.5 47.6 90.7 0.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-66 72.2 47.8 90.8 0.0 100.0 85.7
Sep-66 72.0 47.9 90.8 10.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-66 71.7 48.1 90.5 30.0 100.0 57.1
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Nov-66 71.5 48.2 91.2 40.0 100.0 42.9
Dec-66 71.3 48.3 91.1 50.0 75.0 57.1
Jan-67 71.7 48.5 91.2 50.0 75.0 57.1
Feb-67 71.4 48.4 91.5 50.0 75.0 42.9
Mar-67 71.5 48.5 91.6 60.0 75.0 57.1
Apr-67 71.8 48.6 91.7 70.0 75.0 57.1
May-67 72.3 48.6 91.5 80.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-67 72.9 48.7 91.9 90.0 100.0 42.9
Jul-67 73.2 48.8 91.9 90.0 100.0 50.0
Aug-67 74.1 49.1 91.5 90.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-67 74.1 49.2 91.5 90.0 100.0 28.6
Oct-67 74.2 49.2 91.6 70.0 100.0 42.9
Nov-67 74.5 49.7 91.3 70.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-67 74.9 50.1 91.3 65.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-68 74.8 49.9 91.2 55.0 100.0 64.3
Feb-68 75.2 50.2 91.6 65.0 100.0 85.7
Mar-68 75.4 50.4 91.7 45.0 100.0 85.7
Apr-68 74.7 50.5 92.0 60.0 100.0 71.4
May-68 74.9 50.8 92.3 40.0 100.0 85.7
Jun-68 75.2 51.0 92.5 60.0 100.0 85.7
Jul-68 75.6 51.2 92.4 80.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-68 75.1 51.3 92.8 90.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-68 75.9 51.5 92.7 80.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-68 76.6 51.7 92.8 90.0 100.0 85.7
Nov-68 76.8 52.0 93.0 90.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-68 76.8 52.1 93.4 60.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-69 77.1 52.2 93.8 60.0 100.0 85.7
Feb-69 77.1 52.4 93.9 40.0 87.5 100.0
Mar-69 77.0 52.6 94.3 45.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-69 77.2 52.7 94.7 20.0 100.0 85.7
May-69 76.5 52.8 95.2 30.0 100.0 78.6
Jun-69 76.2 53.1 95.4 30.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-69 75.8 53.2 95.4 20.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-69 75.8 53.5 95.7 10.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-69 76.0 53.5 95.7 10.0 75.0 71.4
Oct-69 75.5 53.7 95.7 20.0 50.0 64.3
Nov-69 75.1 53.5 95.7 10.0 50.0 64.3
Dec-69 74.7 53.6 96.0 10.0 50.0 57.1
Jan-70 74.0 53.3 96.5 20.0 50.0 57.1
Feb-70 73.3 53.4 96.4 30.0 50.0 42.9
Mar-70 73.0 53.4 96.5 20.0 25.0 42.9
Apr-70 72.3 53.4 96.1 20.0 37.5 42.9
May-70 72.8 53.3 95.8 40.0 25.0 42.9
Jun-70 73.1 53.3 95.9 40.0 50.0 28.6
Jul-70 73.0 53.4 95.4 50.0 25.0 28.6
Aug-70 73.3 53.3 95.5 50.0 0.0 14.3
Sep-70 73.2 53.3 95.1 60.0 25.0 14.3
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Oct-70 72.9 52.8 95.0 70.0 50.0 7.1
Nov-70 73.0 52.6 94.7 80.0 50.0 14.3
Dec-70 74.3 53.1 93.8 90.0 75.0 28.6
Jan-71 75.0 53.4 93.5 100.0 100.0 14.3
Feb-71 75.7 53.4 93.4 100.0 100.0 14.3
Mar-71 76.1 53.5 93.1 90.0 100.0 14.3
Apr-71 76.4 53.7 92.7 65.0 100.0 28.6
May-71 76.8 53.9 92.6 70.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-71 77.0 54.0 92.0 50.0 100.0 28.6
Jul-71 76.9 53.9 92.4 60.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-71 77.1 54.0 92.8 80.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-71 77.3 54.3 92.8 80.0 100.0 35.7
Oct-71 77.6 54.4 92.4 100.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-71 78.0 54.7 92.3 100.0 100.0 14.3
Dec-71 79.2 55.0 92.1 100.0 100.0 28.6
Jan-72 79.8 55.5 90.7 100.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-72 80.5 55.6 90.5 90.0 100.0 28.6
Mar-72 80.7 56.0 90.8 70.0 100.0 28.6
Apr-72 80.8 56.3 91.0 70.0 100.0 71.4
May-72 80.9 56.5 91.3 90.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-72 81.0 56.6 91.6 90.0 100.0 64.3
Jul-72 81.6 56.8 91.7 85.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-72 82.5 57.3 91.4 90.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-72 83.2 57.6 91.2 70.0 100.0 42.9
Oct-72 83.5 58.2 91.3 70.0 100.0 57.1
Nov-72 84.0 58.7 91.2 70.0 100.0 71.4
Dec-72 84.4 59.1 91.2 70.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-73 84.5 59.2 92.0 70.0 100.0 85.7
Feb-73 84.6 59.6 92.8 50.0 100.0 100.0
Mar-73 84.0 59.6 93.3 60.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-73 83.5 59.7 93.9 30.0 100.0 100.0
May-73 83.3 59.9 94.2 20.0 75.0 100.0
Jun-73 83.0 60.1 94.9 20.0 75.0 85.7
Jul-73 82.6 60.3 95.2 20.0 100.0 71.4
Aug-73 82.0 60.2 95.8 30.0 100.0 71.4
Sep-73 82.0 60.5 95.9 25.0 100.0 85.7
Oct-73 82.0 61.0 95.8 30.0 75.0 85.7
Nov-73 81.9 61.3 96.1 30.0 62.5 78.6
Dec-73 80.7 61.1 96.7 20.0 50.0 57.1
Jan-74 80.4 60.8 97.3 10.0 25.0 100.0
Feb-74 79.9 60.7 97.3 0.0 25.0 85.7
Mar-74 80.2 60.7 97.3 10.0 37.5 57.1
Apr-74 79.2 60.5 97.9 30.0 50.0 57.1
May-74 79.1 60.7 98.4 10.0 50.0 57.1
Jun-74 78.3 60.8 98.4 10.0 50.0 71.4
Jul-74 77.7 60.8 98.8 20.0 75.0 57.1
Aug-74 76.8 60.6 99.3 10.0 0.0 64.3
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Sep-74 75.4 60.6 99.8 10.0 0.0 57.1
Oct-74 74.8 60.4 99.9 10.0 0.0 57.1
Nov-74 73.7 59.9 100.0 20.0 0.0 42.9
Dec-74 72.5 59.0 100.4 40.0 0.0 28.6
Jan-75 72.2 58.6 99.9 50.0 0.0 28.6
Feb-75 72.2 58.1 99.0 50.0 0.0 28.6
Mar-75 72.7 57.7 98.5 70.0 0.0 0.0
Apr-75 74.5 57.8 97.2 90.0 25.0 0.0
May-75 75.2 57.9 96.2 100.0 100.0 0.0
Jun-75 75.8 58.0 93.7 95.0 100.0 7.1
Jul-75 76.8 58.2 93.5 80.0 100.0 14.3
Aug-75 77.1 58.7 92.8 85.0 100.0 28.6
Sep-75 77.6 58.9 92.5 90.0 100.0 28.6
Oct-75 78.0 59.2 92.5 90.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-75 78.4 59.4 92.2 100.0 100.0 14.3
Dec-75 78.6 59.6 92.2 100.0 100.0 28.6
Jan-76 80.1 60.1 92.0 90.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-76 81.0 60.5 91.9 90.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-76 81.2 60.7 91.7 75.0 100.0 14.3
Apr-76 81.1 61.0 91.5 65.0 100.0 57.1
May-76 81.5 61.2 91.3 60.0 100.0 64.3
Jun-76 81.5 61.3 91.0 60.0 100.0 57.1
Jul-76 82.1 61.5 90.9 55.0 100.0 50.0
Aug-76 82.2 61.7 90.9 65.0 100.0 28.6
Sep-76 82.4 61.9 90.9 70.0 100.0 35.7
Oct-76 82.3 61.8 91.2 60.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-76 82.8 62.4 91.1 70.0 100.0 57.1
Dec-76 83.6 62.7 90.9 60.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-77 83.4 62.8 90.8 70.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-77 83.8 63.1 90.9 70.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-77 84.3 63.5 90.9 65.0 100.0 85.7
Apr-77 84.3 63.8 91.2 70.0 100.0 71.4
May-77 84.3 64.1 91.3 60.0 100.0 85.7
Jun-77 84.7 64.4 91.7 50.0 100.0 100.0
Jul-77 84.6 64.7 91.9 60.0 100.0 78.6
Aug-77 84.6 64.8 92.0 65.0 100.0 85.7
Sep-77 84.7 65.2 92.1 55.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-77 84.6 65.5 92.5 40.0 62.5 85.7
Nov-77 84.7 65.8 92.6 40.0 75.0 85.7
Dec-77 84.8 66.1 92.5 80.0 100.0 100.0
Jan-78 84.0 65.8 93.1 75.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-78 84.3 66.2 93.3 60.0 100.0 71.4
Mar-78 84.5 66.7 93.6 70.0 100.0 71.4
Apr-78 85.3 67.7 93.2 65.0 100.0 71.4
May-78 85.1 67.8 93.7 45.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-78 85.1 68.2 94.1 80.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-78 84.8 68.4 94.5 50.0 100.0 100.0
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Aug-78 84.9 68.7 94.6 55.0 100.0 100.0
Sep-78 85.2 68.8 94.9 40.0 100.0 100.0
Oct-78 85.4 69.2 95.1 40.0 100.0 85.7
Nov-78 84.5 69.5 95.8 25.0 100.0 85.7
Dec-78 84.1 69.8 96.0 35.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-79 83.9 69.8 96.4 20.0 75.0 85.7
Feb-79 84.0 70.0 96.7 20.0 100.0 78.6
Mar-79 84.3 70.5 96.2 20.0 75.0 100.0
Apr-79 83.1 70.0 97.4 20.0 100.0 71.4
May-79 83.7 70.4 97.3 30.0 75.0 100.0
Jun-79 83.3 70.5 98.1 10.0 25.0 100.0
Jul-79 82.4 70.5 98.5 40.0 100.0 85.7
Aug-79 82.6 70.5 98.9 20.0 50.0 85.7
Sep-79 82.8 70.5 99.6 25.0 50.0 71.4
Oct-79 81.7 70.7 99.9 30.0 50.0 71.4
Nov-79 81.3 70.8 100.3 40.0 75.0 64.3
Dec-79 80.9 70.8 100.4 0.0 75.0 57.1
Jan-80 81.2 71.0 100.6 0.0 25.0 71.4
Feb-80 81.4 70.9 100.9 20.0 0.0 71.4
Mar-80 78.6 70.7 102.0 30.0 0.0 57.1
Apr-80 76.8 70.1 102.7 20.0 0.0 28.6
May-80 77.0 69.5 101.9 40.0 0.0 28.6
Jun-80 78.7 69.2 100.9 70.0 25.0 14.3
Jul-80 79.9 69.0 98.9 90.0 50.0 0.0
Aug-80 80.9 69.3 97.7 90.0 100.0 14.3
Sep-80 81.8 69.7 96.6 85.0 100.0 14.3
Oct-80 82.3 70.3 96.1 70.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-80 82.3 70.7 96.1 70.0 100.0 42.9
Dec-80 81.2 71.0 96.8 60.0 100.0 28.6
Jan-81 81.0 71.1 97.1 60.0 75.0 57.1
Feb-81 81.0 71.0 97.2 50.0 75.0 78.6
Mar-81 81.7 71.1 97.0 50.0 75.0 64.3
Apr-81 82.5 70.9 97.1 30.0 75.0 71.4
May-81 81.9 71.0 98.1 50.0 75.0 71.4
Jun-81 81.0 71.2 98.2 30.0 62.5 85.7
Jul-81 80.8 71.5 98.1 20.0 62.5 85.7
Aug-81 81.1 71.5 98.5 20.0 25.0 71.4
Sep-81 80.5 71.3 99.2 20.0 25.0 57.1
Oct-81 79.8 71.1 98.9 20.0 0.0 71.4
Nov-81 79.6 70.8 98.8 20.0 0.0 57.1
Dec-81 79.9 70.5 98.5 20.0 0.0 35.7
Jan-82 79.5 70.1 98.8 30.0 12.5 28.6
Feb-82 79.7 70.5 97.8 50.0 50.0 14.3
Mar-82 79.3 70.4 97.2 50.0 25.0 35.7
Apr-82 79.8 70.3 97.4 50.0 25.0 28.6
May-82 80.0 70.2 97.1 60.0 0.0 28.6
Jun-82 79.9 69.9 97.2 60.0 0.0 42.9
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Jul-82 80.4 69.6 96.8 65.0 0.0 21.4
Aug-82 80.2 69.4 96.6 70.0 0.0 14.3
Sep-82 81.1 69.2 96.3 75.0 0.0 28.6
Oct-82 81.5 69.0 95.6 85.0 25.0 14.3
Nov-82 82.0 68.9 94.6 80.0 25.0 14.3
Dec-82 82.8 68.9 93.6 80.0 75.0 14.3
Jan-83 84.2 69.3 92.9 90.0 100.0 14.3
Feb-83 85.0 69.2 92.8 100.0 100.0 14.3
Mar-83 86.0 69.5 92.5 100.0 100.0 28.6
Apr-83 86.7 69.8 92.3 90.0 100.0 28.6
May-83 87.7 70.2 91.7 100.0 100.0 28.6
Jun-83 88.4 70.7 91.8 100.0 100.0 42.9
Jul-83 88.8 71.2 91.9 90.0 100.0 57.1
Aug-83 88.7 71.1 92.4 80.0 100.0 71.4
Sep-83 89.0 72.0 92.3 80.0 100.0 85.7
Oct-83 89.7 72.5 92.2 90.0 100.0 85.7
Nov-83 89.9 72.8 92.6 80.0 100.0 85.7
Dec-83 90.0 73.4 93.0 90.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-84 90.8 73.9 93.0 80.0 100.0 100.0
Feb-84 91.0 74.3 94.0 75.0 100.0 100.0
Mar-84 90.9 74.7 94.5 60.0 100.0 85.7
Apr-84 90.8 75.1 95.0 30.0 100.0 100.0
May-84 91.1 75.4 95.7 30.0 100.0 85.7
Jun-84 90.5 75.8 96.2 20.0 100.0 92.9
Jul-84 90.5 76.1 97.0 40.0 100.0 85.7
Aug-84 89.9 76.3 97.4 30.0 100.0 85.7
Sep-84 89.8 76.6 97.8 40.0 75.0 85.7
Oct-84 89.8 76.6 98.2 40.0 75.0 71.4
Nov-84 90.3 76.9 98.1 60.0 100.0 71.4
Dec-84 90.9 77.1 98.2 75.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-85 91.4 77.2 98.3 60.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-85 91.3 77.4 98.4 60.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-85 91.5 77.7 98.6 60.0 100.0 57.1
Apr-85 91.2 77.7 98.5 45.0 100.0 71.4
May-85 91.5 78.0 98.9 50.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-85 91.9 77.9 98.9 70.0 100.0 50.0
Jul-85 91.9 77.9 99.2 70.0 75.0 85.7
Aug-85 92.1 78.3 99.3 70.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-85 92.3 78.5 99.1 80.0 100.0 57.1
Oct-85 92.2 78.6 99.9 80.0 100.0 50.0
Nov-85 92.1 78.7 99.9 75.0 100.0 64.3
Dec-85 92.6 79.0 100.1 60.0 75.0 85.7
Jan-86 92.7 79.2 100.0 70.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-86 92.7 79.2 100.1 75.0 100.0 35.7
Mar-86 92.9 79.4 100.5 60.0 75.0 28.6
Apr-86 93.4 79.7 99.7 30.0 75.0 28.6
May-86 93.6 79.6 100.0 50.0 75.0 28.6
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Jun-86 94.0 79.6 99.9 40.0 100.0 14.3
Jul-86 94.0 79.9 99.9 65.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-86 94.2 80.0 99.8 80.0 100.0 28.6
Sep-86 94.3 80.4 99.2 80.0 100.0 42.9
Oct-86 94.8 80.4 100.0 70.0 75.0 57.1
Nov-86 94.7 80.6 99.9 80.0 100.0 28.6
Dec-86 95.2 81.0 99.3 80.0 100.0 64.3
Jan-87 95.1 80.8 100.0 80.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-87 95.8 81.4 99.2 80.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-87 95.9 81.6 99.0 80.0 100.0 71.4
Apr-87 96.0 81.7 99.1 80.0 100.0 42.9
May-87 96.0 82.0 99.3 60.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-87 96.3 82.2 99.3 70.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-87 96.7 82.6 99.1 60.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-87 96.8 82.8 99.2 50.0 100.0 71.4
Sep-87 97.0 82.9 99.4 70.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-87 96.7 83.5 99.7 40.0 100.0 78.6
Nov-87 96.2 83.7 99.6 55.0 100.0 64.3
Dec-87 96.0 84.2 99.4 70.0 100.0 50.0
Jan-88 95.9 84.1 99.8 40.0 100.0 57.1
Feb-88 96.6 84.5 99.6 50.0 100.0 85.7
Mar-88 96.9 84.8 99.8 80.0 100.0 85.7
Apr-88 96.7 84.9 100.1 60.0 100.0 57.1
May-88 96.8 85.1 100.1 60.0 100.0 78.6
Jun-88 97.4 85.4 100.4 40.0 100.0 57.1
Jul-88 96.7 85.7 100.1 70.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-88 96.8 85.8 100.3 60.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-88 96.5 86.0 100.1 45.0 100.0 50.0
Oct-88 96.6 86.3 100.3 70.0 100.0 57.1
Nov-88 96.6 86.6 100.4 45.0 100.0 78.6
Dec-88 96.8 87.1 100.2 30.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-89 96.9 87.4 100.7 40.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-89 96.4 87.4 101.5 10.0 100.0 71.4
Mar-89 95.7 87.6 101.8 10.0 75.0 100.0
Apr-89 96.1 87.7 101.3 20.0 50.0 100.0
May-89 95.4 87.5 102.1 20.0 75.0 71.4
Jun-89 95.3 87.6 102.5 45.0 50.0 64.3
Jul-89 95.3 87.4 102.7 30.0 50.0 85.7
Aug-89 95.6 87.8 102.4 50.0 75.0 64.3
Sep-89 95.8 87.7 102.3 60.0 75.0 57.1
Oct-89 95.5 87.7 102.7 50.0 100.0 21.4
Nov-89 95.8 88.0 102.5 50.0 100.0 28.6
Dec-89 96.1 88.2 102.5 60.0 100.0 42.9
Jan-90 96.5 88.2 102.0 70.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-90 95.9 88.7 101.9 50.0 100.0 35.7
Mar-90 96.4 88.9 102.0 60.0 100.0 57.1
Apr-90 96.0 88.8 101.9 50.0 100.0 57.1
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
May-90 96.1 89.0 101.8 45.0 100.0 50.0
Jun-90 96.1 89.1 101.9 20.0 62.5 50.0
Jul-90 95.9 89.1 102.0 30.0 25.0 35.7
Aug-90 95.2 89.0 101.8 15.0 0.0 50.0
Sep-90 94.7 88.8 101.8 20.0 0.0 21.4
Oct-90 93.9 88.4 101.7 10.0 0.0 21.4
Nov-90 93.4 88.0 101.8 30.0 0.0 28.6
Dec-90 93.5 87.9 101.4 40.0 0.0 28.6
Jan-91 93.2 87.4 101.6 40.0 0.0 28.6
Feb-91 93.9 87.3 101.0 70.0 25.0 14.3
Mar-91 94.5 87.1 100.9 80.0 50.0 0.0
Apr-91 94.9 87.3 100.0 100.0 75.0 0.0
May-91 95.2 87.4 99.6 90.0 75.0 0.0
Jun-91 95.6 87.7 98.8 70.0 75.0 0.0
Jul-91 96.4 87.7 98.4 80.0 87.5 0.0
Aug-91 95.8 87.7 98.0 60.0 87.5 0.0
Sep-91 95.8 87.9 97.4 60.0 50.0 42.9
Oct-91 95.8 87.8 97.2 40.0 87.5 42.9
Nov-91 95.7 87.7 96.9 60.0 75.0 14.3
Dec-91 95.3 87.7 96.7 60.0 75.0 28.6
Jan-92 95.8 87.8 95.8 75.0 100.0 14.3
Feb-92 96.2 88.1 95.3 70.0 100.0 14.3
Mar-92 96.6 88.2 95.1 80.0 100.0 0.0
Apr-92 96.5 88.5 94.7 60.0 100.0 0.0
May-92 96.7 88.6 94.4 65.0 100.0 7.1
Jun-92 96.6 88.7 94.0 55.0 100.0 7.1
Jul-92 96.4 88.9 93.7 55.0 100.0 0.0
Aug-92 96.5 88.7 94.1 75.0 100.0 14.3
Sep-92 96.4 89.0 93.6 90.0 100.0 28.6
Oct-92 96.7 89.3 93.3 60.0 100.0 28.6
Nov-92 97.2 89.6 93.6 80.0 100.0 21.4
Dec-92 98.2 89.7 93.3 60.0 100.0 50.0
Jan-93 97.7 90.0 93.3 60.0 100.0 78.6
Feb-93 97.7 90.2 93.4 50.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-93 96.9 90.0 93.5 20.0 100.0 71.4
Apr-93 97.2 90.3 93.6 25.0 100.0 78.6
May-93 96.9 90.5 93.6 45.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-93 97.2 90.6 93.6 65.0 100.0 50.0
Jul-93 96.8 90.7 93.9 55.0 100.0 35.7
Aug-93 97.1 90.9 93.8 80.0 100.0 35.7
Sep-93 97.3 91.2 93.8 85.0 100.0 35.7
Oct-93 97.4 91.5 93.6 80.0 100.0 21.4
Nov-93 97.8 91.7 93.6 75.0 100.0 21.4
Dec-93 98.5 92.1 93.7 90.0 100.0 28.6
Jan-94 98.6 92.1 93.9 90.0 100.0 28.6
Feb-94 98.2 92.6 93.6 65.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-94 99.0 93.2 93.6 60.0 100.0 42.9
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Apr-94 98.8 93.4 93.8 50.0 100.0 42.9
May-94 98.9 93.8 94.0 70.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-94 98.9 94.0 94.5 60.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-94 98.5 94.2 94.6 80.0 100.0 57.1
Aug-94 98.9 94.7 94.8 70.0 100.0 85.7
Sep-94 98.9 94.9 95.2 70.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-94 99.1 95.4 95.4 70.0 100.0 85.7
Nov-94 99.2 95.7 96.1 55.0 100.0 100.0
Dec-94 99.2 96.2 96.4 30.0 100.0 85.7
Jan-95 99.1 96.5 97.0 30.0 100.0 85.7
Feb-95 98.5 96.5 97.5 20.0 100.0 85.7
Mar-95 97.9 96.6 97.9 30.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-95 97.7 96.6 98.4 30.0 75.0 85.7
May-95 97.5 96.7 98.7 40.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-95 97.7 97.0 99.2 40.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-95 97.9 96.9 99.4 50.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-95 98.3 97.5 99.3 60.0 100.0 50.0
Sep-95 98.4 97.7 99.5 60.0 100.0 28.6
Oct-95 98.2 97.8 99.7 60.0 100.0 42.9
Nov-95 98.2 98.1 99.7 55.0 100.0 42.9
Dec-95 98.6 98.3 99.8 60.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-96 97.9 98.1 99.9 90.0 100.0 28.6
Feb-96 98.9 98.7 99.9 90.0 100.0 42.9
Mar-96 99.2 98.9 99.8 80.0 100.0 42.9
Apr-96 99.6 99.2 99.8 90.0 100.0 57.1
May-96 100.0 99.7 99.8 80.0 100.0 57.1
Jun-96 100.4 100.0 99.8 90.0 100.0 64.3
Jul-96 100.4 100.2 100.3 85.0 100.0 64.3
Aug-96 100.5 100.5 100.0 65.0 100.0 57.1
Sep-96 100.7 100.8 100.1 50.0 100.0 57.1
Oct-96 100.7 101.0 100.1 65.0 100.0 50.0
Nov-96 100.9 101.4 100.1 90.0 100.0 50.0
Dec-96 100.9 101.5 100.3 80.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-97 101.3 101.9 100.2 90.0 100.0 42.9
Feb-97 102.0 102.4 100.1 100.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-97 102.1 102.7 100.1 75.0 100.0 42.9
Apr-97 102.0 103.0 100.2 90.0 100.0 28.6
May-97 102.4 103.2 100.5 80.0 100.0 42.9
Jun-97 102.6 103.6 100.4 75.0 100.0 28.6
Jul-97 103.2 104.1 100.2 80.0 100.0 50.0
Aug-97 103.4 104.4 100.2 85.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-97 103.7 104.8 100.4 60.0 100.0 35.7
Oct-97 103.9 105.2 100.6 60.0 100.0 64.3
Nov-97 104.1 105.6 100.9 65.0 100.0 78.6
Dec-97 104.0 106.0 100.8 60.0 100.0 78.6
Jan-98 104.3 106.5 101.0 70.0 100.0 64.3
Feb-98 104.8 106.9 101.4 40.0 100.0 64.3
 Composite Indexes 6-month Diffusion Indexes
Leading CoincidentLagging Leading CoincidentLagging
Date G0M910 G0M920 G0M930 D6M950 D6M951 D6M952
Mar-98 105.1 107.3 101.7 50.0 100.0 78.6
Apr-98 105.2 107.5 101.5 40.0 100.0 78.6
May-98 105.1 107.9 101.7 60.0 100.0 50.0
Jun-98 104.9 108.1 102.2 40.0 100.0 64.3
Jul-98 105.5 108.2 102.3 40.0 100.0 42.9
Aug-98 105.5 108.8 102.4 40.0 100.0 42.9
Sep-98 105.4 109.1 102.6 70.0 100.0 42.9
Oct-98 105.5 109.4 102.7 75.0 100.0 42.9
Nov-98 106.4 109.8 102.5 80.0 100.0 50.0
Dec-98 106.6 110.0 102.3 85.0 100.0 57.1
Jan-99 107.4 110.1 102.8 75.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-99 107.8 110.7 102.9 85.0 100.0 57.1
Mar-99 108.0 111.0 102.9 80.0 100.0 64.3
Apr-99 107.8 111.1 103.2 80.0 100.0 78.6
May-99 108.3 111.4 103.1 80.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-99 108.9 112.0 102.6 80.0 100.0 71.4
Jul-99 109.3 112.2 103.3 80.0 100.0 57.1
Aug-99 109.2 112.6 103.4 85.0 100.0 71.4
Sep-99 109.1 112.5 103.8 70.0 100.0 71.4
Oct-99 109.2 113.2 103.6 80.0 100.0 71.4
Nov-99 109.7 113.6 103.8 75.0 100.0 71.4
Dec-99 110.3 113.9 104.1 70.0 100.0 71.4
Jan-00 110.6 114.4 104.3 70.0 100.0 71.4
Feb-00 110.2 114.5 104.8 50.0 100.0 71.4
Mar-00 110.4 115 104.7 40.0 100.0 100.0
Apr-00 110.4 115.4 105.2 25.0 100.0 85.7
May-00 110.2 115.7 105.4 30.0 100.0 71.4
Jun-00 110.1 116.0 106.2 40.0 100.0 100.0
Jul-00 109.8 115.9 106.4 10.0 100.0 100.0
Aug-00 109.7 116.2 106.7 30.0 75.0 100.0
Sep-00 109.8 116.6 106.8 20.0 50.0 64.3
Oct-00 109.4 116.4 107.3 30.0 75.0 71.4
Nov-00 109.1 116.3 107.9 30.0 50.0 42.9
Dec-00 108.5 116.4 107.6
Jan-01 109.0 116.4 107.5
Feb-01 108.8 116.5 107.1
Mar-01
Apr-01
May-01
Jun-01
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01