Probability

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:
Events A and B are said to be dependent if B can occur only if it is known that A has occurred or
vice versa. The probability attached to such an event is known as CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The general notation for conditional probability of B given that event A has happened is P(B/A). It
is read as the probability of B given A.
EXAMPLE
Suppose that from a class of 15 boys and10 girls a student is selected by chance to clean the class
room on Monday and a different student is selected by chance to clean the room on Wednesday.
Given that the result of Mondays selection, what is the probability that on Wednesday a boy is will
be selected?
The possible answers according to what happened on Monday are.
1. Given that a boy was selected on Monday, the probability that a boy will be selected on
Wednesday is 14/24, for there are 14 different from the one selected on Monday and there is
a total of 24 students who are not selected on Monday.
2. Given that a girl was selected on Monday, the probability that a boy will be selected on
Wednesday is 15/24, for there 15 boys not selected on Monday is (again) a total of 24
students who were not selected on Monday.
NOTE : If no information is given about the result on Mondays drawing the probability that a boy
will be selected on Wednesday is not a conditional probability should be 15/25. To summarize, we
have three different questions with three different answers :
(i)
Given that a boy is selected on Monday, what is the probability that a boy will be
selected in Wednesday? The answer is 14/24.
(ii)
Given that a girl is selected on Monday, what is the probability that a boy will be
selected on Wednesday? The answer is 15/24.
(iii)
Given that no information about Monday, what is the probability that a boy will be
selected on Monday? The answer is 15/25.
The first two are conditional probabilities, the third is not. The probability that a girl will be
selected on Wednesday can be evaluated in a similar way.
For example, we can denote by B the event that a boy is selected on Monday; we also write G for
the event that a girl is selected on Monday and C for the event a boy is selected on Wednesday. It
follows that :
P C / B

14
24

P(C / G )

15
24

For our example, an appropriate tree diagram is as follows:

Monday

Wednesday

14/24
15/25

Boy

Boy
10/24

15/24

10/25

Girl

Boy

Girl
9/24

Girl

FORMULA FOR CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

In general, when we are given that a particular event has already occurred, the sample space for the
subsequent event is reduced to those outcomes that are possible in the light of this information.
Thus we define the conditional probability of B given A, to be P( B / A)

n( A B )
n( A)

Now when event are not independent, multiplication law of probability is given by
P A B P A P B / A
P B P A / B

Proof: Let S be sample space.

n A B
n S
n A B n A

n S
n A
n A B n A

n A
n S
P A B P B / A P A
P A B

P A B P A .P B / A

P A B
P A
P A B
P A / B
P B
P B / A

When the events are independent then

P B / A P ( B )

P A / B P A
P A B P A P B

Which is the multiplication law of probability.

Note: From above, we get the following important result:
Two events A and B are independent iff P A B P A P B
The events which are not independent are called Dependent Events.
Multiplication rule of probability for more than two events :If E, F and G are three events of a sample space, we have
P E F G P( E ) P F / E P G / E F
Properties of Conditional Probability :
Let E and F be Events of a sample space S of an experiment, then
P S / F P F / F 1
Property 1
Proof : We know that
P S F P F
P S / F

1.
S F F
P F
P F
Also,

P F / F

P F F P F

1.
P F
P F

F F F

Thus P S / F P F / F 1
Property 2 If A and B are any two events of a sample space S and F is an event of S such that
P F 0 , then P A B / F P A / F P B / F P A B / F
In particular, if A and B are disjoint events, then P A B / F P A / F P B / F

Proof :
P A B F
P F
P A F B F
Distributive Pr operty

P F
P A F P B F P A B F
Set Theory

P F
P A F P B F P A B F

P F
P F
P F

P A B / F

P A B / F P A / F P B / F P A B / F

When A and B are disjoint events, then P A B / F 0

P A B / F P A / F P B / F .
Property 3 : P E `/ F 1 P E / F
Proof: From property 1 we have
P S / F 1
P (( E E `) / F ) 1

P E / F P E `/ F 1

P E `/ F 1 P E / F

Property 4 :If E1 and E2 are two events associated with an experiment and P(E2)
0 P E1 / E 2 1

0, then

Proof : We know that E1 E 2 E 2

P E1 E 2 P E 2

P E1 E 2 P E 2

P E 2
P E 2

P E1 / E 2 1 1
Also, P E1 E 2 0

P E1 E 2
0
P E 2

and P E 2 0

P E1 / E 2 0 2
From (1) and (2), we get

0 P E1 / E 2 1

INDEPENDENT EXPERIMENT
Two random experiments are said to be independent if the probability of an event in the second
experiment is independent of the out comes of the first experiment. If A be an event associated with

the first experiment and B be an event associated with second experiment then the probability of
A(in first) and B(in second) is equal to the product of probabilities of A(in first) and B(in second).
Let us consider two random experiments tossing a coin and the other throwing a die. If these two
experiments are performed one after another, we get the following sample space :
S = { (H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6), (T, 1) (T, 2), (T, 3) (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6)}
If A be the event : A tail on the coin and B be the event : an odd number on the die, then
P A

1
2

and

P B

6 1

12 2

Also, P(A and B) = P{(T, 1), (T, 3), (T, 5)}=

3
1

12 4

We see that P A and B P A B P A P B

Thus above experiments are independent.
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events E and F are said to be independent, if
P(F/E) = P(F) provided P(E) 0 and P(E/F) = P(E) provided P(F)
Thus in this definition we need to have P(E) 0 & P(F) 0.
Now by multiplication rule of probability, we have

0.

P E F P E . P F / E (1)

If E and F are independent then (1) becomes

P E F P E .P F (2)

Thus using (2) the independence of two events is also defined as follows:
Let E and E be two events associated with the same experiment, then E and F are said to be
independent if P E F P E .P F
NOTE:
1. Two events E and F are said to be dependent if they are not independent, i.e. if
P E F P E .P F .
2. Some times there is a confusion between independent events & mutually exclusive events.
Term independent is defined in terms of probability of events whereas mutually
exclusive is defined in terms of events(subset of sample space). Moreover, mutually
exclusive events never have an outcome common, but independent events, may have
common outcomes. Clearly independent and mutually exclusive do not have the same
meaning.
In other words, two independent events having nonzero probabilities of occurrence can not
be mutually exclusive and conversely, two mutually exclusive events having nonzero
probabilities of occurrence can not be independent.
3. Two experiments are said to be independent if for every pair of events E and F where E is
associated with first experiment and F with the second experiment, the probability of the
simultaneous occurrence of events E & F when the two experiments are performed is the
product of P(E) and P(F) calculated separately on the basis of two experiments, i.e.
P E F P E P F

4. Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually independent if (i) P A B P A P B

(ii) P A C P A P C (iii) P B C P B P C
(iv) P A B C P A P B P C
If at least one of the above is not true for three given events, we say that the events are not
independent.

7
1. If P A ,
13

9
P B ,
13

&

EXAMPLES
4
P A B , evaluate P(A/B).

13
P A B 4 / 13 4

Solution: We have P A / B
P B
9 / 13 9

2. A family has two children. What is the probability that both the children are boys given that
at least one of them is a boy?
Solution : Let b stands for boy and g for girl. The sample space of the experiment is
S = {(b, b), (g, b), (b, g), (g, g)}
Let E and F denote the following events:
E: both the children are boys.
F: at least one of the child is a boy.
E = {(b, b)} & F = {(b, b), (g, b), (b, g)}
Now E F = {(b, b)}
Thus P(F) = and P(E F) =
P E F 1 / 4 1
P E / F

.
P F
3/ 4 3
3. Ten cards numbered 1 to 10 are placed in a box mixed thoroughly and one card is drawn
randomly. If it known that the number on drawn card is more than 3, what is the probability
that it is an even number?
Solution: Let A be the event the number on the card drawn is even and B be the event the
number on the card drawn is greater than 3. We have to find P(A/B)
Now the sample space of the experiment is
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}
B = {4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
A B = {4, 6, 8, 10}
5
1
7
4

P( B )
& P( A B )
10 2
10
10
P ( A B) 4 / 10 4
P ( A / B)

P( B)
7 / 10 7
P ( A)

4. In a school, there are 1000 students, out of which 430 are girls. It is known that out of
430,10% of the girls study in class XII. What is the probability that the student chosen
randomly studies in class XII given that the chosen student is a girl?
Solution: Let E denote the event that a student chosen randomly studies in class XII and F
be the event that the randomly chosen student is a girl. We have to find P(E/F)
430
43
0.43
P E F
0.043
1000
1000
P E F 0.043

0.1
Then P E / F
P F
0.43

Now P F

5. A die is thrown three times, events A & B are defined as below : A: 4 on third throw, B: 6 on
the second throw. Find the probability of A given that B has already occurred.
Solution: The sample space has 216 outcomes.
Now A = {(1, 1, 4) (1, 2, 4) - - - (1, 6, 4) (2, 1, 4) (2, 2, 4) - - - (2, 6, 4)
(3, 1, 4) (3, 2, 4) - - - (3, 6, 4) (4, 1, 4) (4, 2, 4) - - - (4, 6, 4)
(5, 1, 4) (5, 2, 4) - - - (5, 6, 4) (6, 1, 4) (6, 2, 4) - - - (6, 6, 4)}
B = {(6, 5, 1) (6, 5, 2) (6, 5, 3) (6, 5, 4) (6, 5, 5) (6, 5, 6)}
A B = {(6, 5, 4)}
P(A B) = 1/216
P(B) = 6/216 = 1/36
P( A B)

1 / 216

6. A die is
thrown twice and the sum of the
P( A / B)

P( B)
1 / 36
6 is observed to be 6. What is the
numbers appearing
probability that the number 4 has appeared at least once?
Solution: E: event of number 4 appeared at least once
F: event of the sum of numbers appearing is 6
Then E = {(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6) (1, 4) (2, 4) (3, 4) (5, 4) (6,4)}

F = {(1, 5) (2, 4) (3, 3) (4, 2) (5, 1)}

E F = {(2, 4) (4, 2)}
P(E) = 11/36 , P(F) = 5/36 and P(E F) = 2/36
P E F 2 / 36 2
P E / F

P F
5 / 36 5
7. Consider the experiment of tossing a coin. If the coin shows head, toss it again but if it
shows tail, then throw a die. Find the conditional probability of the event that the die shows
a number greater than 4 given that there is at least one tail.
Solution : The tree diagram for the given problem is aside and
(H, H)
sample space:
H
S = {(H, H) (H, T) (T, 1) (T, 2) (T, 3) (T, 4) (T, 5) (T, 6)}
(H, T)
Where (H, H) denotes that both the tosses result into head
and (T, i) denote the first toss into a tail and the number i
(T, 1)
appeared on the die for i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
(T, 2)
These probabilities assign to the 8 elementary events, are
(T, 3)
, , 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12, 1/12 respectively.
T
(T, 4)
Let F: event there is at least one tail.
(T, 5)
E: event die shows a number greater than 4.
(T,
6)
Then F = {(H, T) (T, 1) (T, 2) (T, 3) (T, 4) (T, 5) (T, 6)}
E = {(T, 5) (T, 6)}
E F = {(T, 5) (T, 6)}
P(F) = P({(H,T)}) + P({(T,1)}) + P({(T,2)}) + P({(T,3)}) + P({(T,4)}) + P({(T,5)})
+ P({(T,6)}).
= + 1/12 + 1/12 + 1/12 + 1/12 + 1/12 + 1/12 = .
P(E F) = P({(T,5)}) + P({(T,6)}) = 1/12 + 1/12 = 1/6
Hence P E / F

P E F 1 / 6 2

P F
3/ 4 9

8. An urn contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one after
another without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls are black?
Solution: Let E: event that the first ball is black
F: event that the second ball is black
We have to find P(E F)
P(E) = 10/15
Also given that the first ball drawn is black, i.e. event E has occurred, now
there are9 black balls and 5 white balls left in the urn, therefore the probability that
the second ball drawn is black, given that the ball in the first draw is black, is
nothing but the conditional probability of F given that E has occurred i.e.
P(E/F) = 9/14
By multiplication rule of probability, we have
P(E F) = P(E) . P(E/F)
= 10/15 9/14 = 3/7.
9. Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled
cards. What is the probability that first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an
ace?
Solution: Let K denote the event that the card drawn is a king and A be the event that the
card drawn is an ace.
Clearly we have to find P(KKA)
Now P(K) = 4/52
Also, P(K/K) is the probability of second king with the condition that one king has
already been drawn. Now there are three kings in (52 1) = 51 cards
P(K/K) = 3/51

Lastly, P(A/KK) is the probability of third drawn card to be an ace, with the
condition that two kings have already been drawn. Now there are four ace in left
50 cards.
P(A/KK) = 4/50
by multiplication law of probability, we have
P(KKA) = P(K) . P(K/K) . P(A/KK)
= 4/52 . 5/51 . 4/50
= 2/5525.
10. A die is thrown. If E is the event the number appearing is a multiple of 3 and F be the
event the number appearing is even then find whether E and F are independent?
Solution: We know that the sample space is S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Now E = {3, 6}, F = {2, 4, 6} and E F = {6}
Then P(E) = 2/6 =1/3, P(F) = 3/6 =1/2 and P(E F) = 1/6.
Clearly P(E F) = P(E) . P(F)
Hence E and F are independent events.
11. An unbiased die is thrown twice. Let the event A be odd number on the first throw and B
be the event odd number on the second throw. Check the independence of events A and B.
Solution: If all 36 elementary events of the experiments are considered to be equally likely,
we have P(A) = 18/36 = and P(B) = 18/36 =
Also, P(A B) = P( odd number on both throw) = 9/36 =
P(A) . P(B) = . =
Clearly P(A B) = P(A) .P(B).
Thus A and B are independent events.
12. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Consider the event E three heads or three tails F at
least two heads and G at most two heads. Of the pair (E, F), (E, G) and (F,G), which are
independent? Which are dependent?
Solution: The sample space of the experiment is given by
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT }
E = { HHH, TTT } F = { HHH, HHT, HTH, THH }
G ={ HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT }
E F = {HHH} E G = { TTT} F G = { HHT, HTH, THH }
P(E) = 2/8 = , P(F) = 4/8 = , P(G) = 7/8, P(E F) =1/8, P(E G) =1/8,
P(F G) = 3/8.
Also, P(E) . P(F) = . = 1/8, P(E) . P(G) = . 7/8 = 7/32, P(F) . P(G) = .7/8 = 7/16.
Thus P(E F) = P(E) . P(F), P(E G) P(E) . P(G), P(F G) P(F) . P(G).
Hence, the events E & F are independent, and E & G and F & G are dependent.
13. Prove that if E and F are independent events then so are the events E and F`.
Solution: Since E and F are independent
S
E
F
E`F
events
P(E F) = P(E) . P(F)
From the Venn diagram it is clear that
(E F) and (E F`) are mutually
exclusive events and also
EF`
E`F`
E E F E F `
EF

P E P E F P E F `
or P(E F`) = P(E) - P(E F)

= P(E) - P(E) . P(F)

= P(E) .[1 - P(F)]
P(E F`) = P(E) . P(F`)
Hence E and F` are independent events.
14. If A and B are two independent events, then the probability of occurrence of at least one of
A and B is given by 1 P(A`) . P(B`).

Solution: We have,
P( at least one of A & B) = P( A B)
= P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
= P(A) + P(B) P(A) (B)
= P(A) + P(B) [1 P(A)]
= 1 P(A`) + P(B) . P(A`)
= 1 P(A`) [ 1 P(B)]
= 1 P(A`) . P(B`)

EXERCIES 13.1
1. Given that E and F are events such that P(E) = 0.6, P(F) = 0.3 and P((E
P(E/F) and P(F/E).
P E F 0.2 2

Solution: P E / F
P F
0.3 3
P F / E

F) = 0.2. Find

P E F 0.2 1

P E
0.6 3

2. Compute P(A/B) if P(B) = 0.5 and P(A B) = 0.32

P A B 0.32 32 16

Solution: P A / B
P B
0.5 50 25
3. If P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.5 and P(B/A) = 0.4, find (i) P(A B) (ii) P(A/B) (iii) P(A B).
Solution: (i) P B / A

P A B P A P B / A

= 0.8
= 0.32

(ii) P A / B
(iii)

P A B
P A

0.4

P A B 0.32 32 16

P B
0.5
50 25

P(A B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A B)

= 0.8 + 0.5 0.32

= 0.98.
4. Evaluate P(A B), if 2 P(A) = P(B) = 5/13 and P(A/B) = 2/5
5
2
5

, P(B) =
2 13 26
13
5 2
2
P A B P B P A / B

13 5 13

Solution: Here P(A) =

P(A B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A B)

=

5
5
2 5 10 4 11

26 13 13
26
26

5. If P(A) = 6/11, P(B) = 5/11 and P(A B) =7/11, find (i) P(A B) (ii) P(A/B) (iii) P(B/A)
Solution: (i) P(A B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A B)
P(A B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A B)
6
5
7
4

11 11 11 11
P A B 4 / 11 4

(ii) P A / B
P B
5 / 11 5
P A B 4 / 11 4 2

.
(iii) P B / A
P A
6 / 11 6 3

Determine P(E/F) from Q. No. 6 to 9

6. A coin is tossed three times, where
(i)
E : head on third toss, F : Heads on first two tosses

(ii)
E : at least two heads, F : at least on tail.
(iii)
E : at most two tails, F : at least one tail.
Solution: For the experiment tossing a coin thrice the sample space S is
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT }
(i) E = { HHH, THH, TTH, HTH}
F = { HHH, HHT}
E F = { HHH}
P E F 1 / 8 1
P E / F

P F
2/8 2
(ii)
E = { HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}
F = { TTT, TTH, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, HTT}
E F = { HHT, HTH, THH}
P E / F

P E F 3 / 8 3

P F
7/8 7

(iii)

E = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH}

F = { TTT, TTH, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, HTT}
E F = { HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH}
P E F 6 / 8 6
P E / F

P F
7/8 7
7. Two coins are tossed once, where (i) E : tail appears on one coin, F : one coin shows head.
(ii) E : no tail appears, F : no head appears.
Solution : S = {HH, HT,TH, TT}
(i)
E = {HT, TH,}, F = {TH, HT}
E F = {TH, HT}
P E / F

P E F 2 / 4

1
P F
2/ 4

(ii)

E = {HH}, F = {TT}
E F =
P(E F) = 0
P E F
0
P E / F

0
P F
1/ 4
8. A die is thrown thrice, E : 4 appears on the third toss F : 6 & 5 appear on first two tosses.
Solution : n(S) = 63 = 216
E = { (1,1,4), (1,2,4), - - - (1,6,4), (2,1,4), (2,2,4) - - (2,6,4), (3,1,4), (3,2,4) - - - (3,6,4),
(4,1,4),(4,2,4), - - - (4, 6, 4), (5,1,4), (5,2,4), - - -, (5,6,4), (6,1,4),(6,2,4), - - - (6,6,4)
F = {(6,5,1), (6,5,2), (6,5,3), (6,5,4),(6,5,5), (6,5,6)}
E F = {(6,5,4)}
P E F 1 / 216 1
P E / F

P F
6 / 216 6
9. Mother, father and son line up at random for a family picture E: son on one end, F: father in
middle.
Solution: S = {MFS, MSF, FMS, FSM, SMF, SFM}
E = { MFS, SMF, FMS, SFM}
F = { MFS, SFM}
E F = { MFS, SFM}
P E / F

P E F 2 / 6

1
P F
2/6

10. A black and a red dice are rolled.

(a) Find the conditional probability of obtaining a sum greater than 9, given that black die
resulted in a 5.
(b) Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, given that the red die resulted in
a number less than 4.
Solution : (a) Let E : event of getting sum greater than 9. F: event of getting 5 in black die.
E = {(4,6), (6,4), (5,5), (6,5), (5,6), (6,6)}
F = {(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)}
E F = {(5,5), (5,6)}
P E F 2 / 36 1
P E / F

P F
6 / 36 3
(b) Let E: event of getting sum 8, F: event of getting number less than 4 on red die.
E = {(2,6), (6,2), (3,5), (5,3), (4,4)}
F = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3),(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3)}
E F = {(5,3), (6,2)}
P E / F

P E F 2 / 36 1

P F
18 / 36 9

11. A fair die is rolled. Consider events E = {1, 3, 5} F = {2, 3} and G = {2, 3, 4, 5}
Find: (i) P(E/F) and P(F/E) (ii) P(E/G) and P(G/E) (iii) P(( E F)/G) and P((E F)/G))
Solution: E F = {3}, E G = {3, 5}, E F = {1,2,3,5} ( E F)/G = {2, 3, 5}
(E F)/G = {3}
P E F 1 / 6 1

(i) P E / F
P F
2/6 2
P E F 1 / 6 1

P E
3/ 6 3
P E G 2 / 6 1

(ii) P E / G
P G
4/6 2
P E G 2 / 6 2
P G / E

P E
3/ 6 3
P ( E F ) G 3 / 6 3

(iii) P E F / G
P G
4/6 4
P E F G 1 / 6 1
P ( E F ) / G

P G
4/6 4
P F / E

12. Assume that each child born is equally likely to be boy or a girl. If a family has two children
What is the conditional probability that both are girls given that (i) the youngest is a girl
(ii) at least one is a girl
Solution: Let the first child be denoted by capital letter and the second (younger one) by a
small letter, then S = {Bb, Bg, Gb, Gg}
E: event that both children are girls E ={Gg}
(i)
Let F: event that the youngest is a girl F = {Bg, Gg}
E F = {Gg}

P E / F
(ii)

P E F 1 / 4 1

P F
2/4 2

F: event that at least on is a girl F = {Bg, Gb, Gg}

E F = {Gg}
P E / F

P E F 1 / 4 1

P F
3/ 4 3

13. An instructor has a question bank of 300 easy true/false questions 200 difficult true/false
questions, 500 easy multiple choice questions and 400 multiple choice questions. If a
question is selected at random from the bank what is the probability that it will be an easy
question given that it is a multiple choice question?
Solution: E: event that it is an easy question and
F: event that it is a multiple choice question
Total number of questions = 300 + 200 + 500 + 400 = 1400
500
5

1400 14
400 500
900
9

P(F) =
1400
1400 14
P E F 5 / 14 5
P E / F P F 9 / 14 9

P(E F) =

14. Given that the two numbers appearing on throwing two dice are different. Find the
probability of the event the sum of numbers on the dice is 4.
Solution: Let E: event that the sum of the numbers on the dice is 4
F: event that numbers appearing on the two dice are different.
E = {(1, 3), (3, 1), (2, 2)}
F` = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}
n(F) = 36 6 = 30
E F = {(1, 3), (3, 1)}
P E / F

P E F
2 / 36
1

P F
30 / 36 15

15. Consider the experiment of throwing a die, if a multiple of 3 comes up throw the die again
and if any other number comes, toss a coin. Find the conditional probability of the event
the coin shows tail given that at least one die shows a 3.
Solution: S = {(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4),(6, 5), (6, 6),
(1, H), (1, T), (2, H), (2, T), (4, H), (4, T), (5, H), (5, T), }
Let E: event that coin shows a tail.
F: event that at least one die shows up a 3.
E = {(1, T), (2, T), (4, T), (5, T)}
F = {(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (6, 3)}
E F =
P E F
0
P E / F

0
P F
7 / 20
16. If P(A) = P(B) = 0 then P(A/B) is (A) 0 (B) (C) not defined (D) 1.
P A / B

P A B P ( A B)

not defined
P B
0

17. If A and B are events such that P(A/B) = P(B/A) then (A) A B but A B (B) A = B (C)A
B = (D) P(A) = P(B).
Since P(A/B) = P(B/A)
P A B P ( A B )
P B P( A)
P(A) = P(B).
EXERCISE 13.2
1. If P(A) = 3/5 and P(B) = 1/5, find P(A B) if A and B are independent events.
Solution: Since A and B are independent events then
P(A B) = P(A) P(B) = 3/5 1/5 = 3/25.
2. Two cards are drawn at random and without replacement from a pack of 52 playing cards.
Find the probability that both the cards are black.
Solution: E: event that first card is black.

F: event that second card is black.

Required probability = P(E F) = P(E) . P(F/E) = 26/52 25/51 = 25/102.
Note:- When a black card is drawn, for second draw there are 25 black cards are left in a
total of 51.
3. A box of oranges is inspected by three randomly selected oranges without replacement. If
all the three oranges are good, the box is approved for the sale otherwise rejected. Find the
probability that a box containing 15 oranges out of which 12 are good and 3 are bad ones
will be approved for sale.
Solution: Required probability = P( 3 good oranges are taken out one by one without
replacement)
12 11 10 44

.
15 14 13 91

4. A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event head appeared on the coin
and B be the event 3 on the die. Check whether A and B are independent events or not.
Solution: Here the sample space is
S = {(1, H), (1, T), (2, H), (2, T), (3, H), (3, T), (4, H), (4, T), (5, H), (5, T), (6, H), (6, T)}
A = {(1, H), (2, H), (3, H),(4, H)(5, H),(6, H)}
B = {(3, H), (3, T)}
A B = {(3, H)}
P(A) = 6/12 = , P(B) = 2/12 = 1/6, P(A B) = 1/12
Here P(A) P(B) = 1/12 = 1/12 = P(A B).
Hence A and B are independent events.
5. A die is marked 1, 2, 3 in red and 4, 5, 6 in green is tossed. Let A be the event number is
even and B be the event number is red. Are A & B independent?
Solution: Here S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A: event that number is even A = {2, 4, 6}
B = {1, 2, 3}
B: event that number is red
A B = {2}
P(A) = 3/6 = P(B) = 3/6 = P(A B) = 1/6
Here P(A) P(B) = = P(A B).
Hence A and B are not independent events.
6. Let E and F be events with P(E) = 3/5, P(F) = 3/10 and P(E F) = 1/5. Are E and F
independent?
Solution: P(E) P(F) = 3/5 3/10 = 9/50 P(E F)
Hence E and F are not independent events.
7. Given that the events A & B are such that P(A) = , P(A B) = 3/5 and P(B) = p. Find p if
they are (i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent
Solution: (i) Since A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
A B = P(A B) = 0
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
3/5 = + p
p = 3/5 = 1/10.
(ii) When A and B are independent
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A) P(B)
p
3/5 = + p
-
p/2 = 3/5 = 1/10
p = 1/5
8. Let A and B be independent events P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.4. Find (i) P(A B)
(ii) P(A B) (iii) P(A/B) (iv) P(B/A)

Solution: Since A and B are independent events

(i) P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
= 0.3 0.4 = 0.12
(ii) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A) P(B)
= 0.3 + 0.4 0.12 = 0.58
P A B 0.12

0 .3
(iii) P A / B
P B
0.4
(iv) P B / A

P A B 0.12

0.4
P A
0.3

9. If A and B are two events such that P(A) = 1/4, P(B) = and P(A B) = 1/8
find P( not A and not B)
Solution: Here P(A) P(B) = = 1/8 = P(A B)
A and B are independent events
A` and B` are independent events
P(A` B`) = P(A`) P(B`)
P( not A and not B) = [ 1 P(A)] [ 1 P(B)]
= ( 1 ) ( 1- )
=
= 3/8
10. Events A and B are such that P(A) = , P(B) = 7/12 and P(not A or not B) = . State
whether A and B independent.
Solution: Given that P(not A or not B) =
P(A` B`) =
P[(A B)`}=
1 - P(A B) =
P(A B) = 1 =
Also P(A) P(B) = 7/12 = 7/24 P(A B)
A and B are not independent events.
11. Given two independent events A and B such that P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6.
Find
(i) P(A and B) (ii) P(A and not B) (iii) P(A or B) (iv) P(neither A nor B)
Solution: (i) P(A and B) = P(A B) = P(A) P(B) = 0.3 0.6 = 0.18
(ii) P(A and not B) = P(A B`) = P(A) P(B`) = P(A) [(1- P(B)]
= 0.3 (1 -0.6) = 0.3 0.4 = 0.12
( if A and B are independent then A and B` are independent)
(iii) P(A or B) = P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
= 0.3 + 0.6 0.18 = 0.72
(iv)P(neither A nor B) = P(A` B`) = P(A`) P(B`) = [1 P(A)] [1 P(B)]
= (1 0.3) (1 - 0.6) = 0.7 0.4 = 0.28
( if A and B are independent events then A` and B` also)
12. A die is tossed thrice. Find the probability of getting an odd number at least once.
Solution: When a die is tossed thrice n(S) = 216.
Let E : event that an odd number at least once.
F : event that not an even number on all throws.
i.e. Ec: event that an even number on all throws
Ec = {(2, 2, 2), (2, 2, 4), (2, 2, 6), (2, 4, 2), (2, 4, 4), (2, 4, 6), (2, 6, 2), (2, 6, 4),
(2, 6, 6), (4, 2, 2), - - - - - (4, 6, 6), (6, 2, 2), - - - - - - (6, 6, 6)}
c
n(E ) = 27
required probability = P(E) = 1 P(Ec) = 1 27/216 = 1 1/8 = 7/8.
13. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a box containing 10 black and 8 red
balls. Find the probability that (i) both balls are red (ii) first ball is black and second is red
(iii) one of them is black and other is red.

Solution: (i) Required probability = P(both the balls are red)

= P(a red ball in first draw and again a red ball in second draw)
8
8
C1
C1

= 18
{first ball is put again in the box before drawing the second ball}
18
C1
C1
=

8
8
16

18 18 81

(ii) Required probability = P(first ball is black & second is red)

10
C1 8 C1
= 18 18
C1
C1
=
(iii)

10 8
20

18 18 81

Required probability = P(one of the ball is black and other is red)

= P(first ball is black and second is red)
+ P(first ball is red and second is black)
10
8
C1 8 C1
C1 10 C1
= 18 18 18 18
C1
C1
C1
C1
10 8
8 10

18 18 18 18
20 40

= 2
81 81

14. Probability of solving specific problem independently by A & B are and 1/3 respectively.
If both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that : (i) the problem is
solved (ii) exactly one of them solves the problem.
Solution: Let E1= event that A solves the problem
E2= event that B solves the problem
P(E1) = and P(E2) = 1/3.
(i)
P(the problem is solved)
= 1 P(the problem is not solved)
= 1 P(neither A solves nor B solves the problem)
= 1 P ( E1c E 2c )
= 1 P( E1c )

= 1 [1 P(E1)]

P ( E 2c )

[ 1 P(E2)]

= 1 (1 ) (1 1/3)
=1

2/3

= 1 1/3
= 2/3.
(ii)

P( exactly one of them solves the problem)

= P(A solves the problem B does not solve) + P(B solves the problem A does not solve)
= P( E1 E 2c ) P ( E 2 E1c )

= P ( E1 ) P( E 2c ) P ( E 2 ) P ( E1c )
= P ( E1 )[1 P ( E 2 )] P ( E 2 )[1 P ( E1 )]
=

1
1
1
1
1 1
2
3
3
2

1 2 1 1

2 3 3 2

3
6

=
15. One card is drawn at random from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. In which of the
following cases are the events E and F independent?
(i)

E: the card drawn is a spade, F: the card drawn is an ace.

(ii)

E: the card drawn is black, F: the card drawn is a king.

(iii)

E: the card drawn is a king or queen, F: the card drawn is a queen or a jack.

Solution: (i) Here P(E) = P( card drawn is spade) =

P(F) = P(card drawn is an ace) =
E

13 1

52 4
4
1

52 13

F : card drawn is ace of spade

P(E

Here

P(E)

F) =

1
52

P(F) = 1/13 = 1/52 = P(E F).

Hence E and F are independent events.

(ii)

P(E) = P(card drawn is black) = 26/52 =

P(F) = P(card drawn is a king) = 4/52 = 1/13
E

F : card drawn is a black king

Here

P(E)

P(F) = 1/13 = 1/26 = P(E F).

Hence E and F are independent events.

(iii)

P(E) = P(card drawn is a queen or a King) = 8/52 = 2/13

P(F) = P(card drawn is a queen or a jack) = 8/52 = 2/13

F : card drawn is a queen

F) = 4/52 = 1/13

P(E

Here P(E)

P(F) = 2/13 2/13 = 4/169

P(E

F).

Hence E and F are not independent events.

16. In a girls hostel 60% of the students read Hindi news paper, 40% read English news paper
and 20% read both Hindi and English news paper. A student is selected at random.
(a) Find the probability that she reads neither Hindi nor English news paper.
(b) If she reads Hindi news paper, find the probability that she reads English
news paper.
(c) If she reads Hindi English news paper, find the probability she reads Hindi
news paper.
Solution: A : a student reads Hindi news paper
B : a student reads English news paper
P(A) = 60/100 = 3/5 P(B) = 40/100 = 2/5 P(A B) = 20/100 = 1/5
(a) P( Student reads neither Hindi nor English news paper)
= P((A B)c) = 1 P(A B)
= 1 [P(A) + P(B) P(A B)]
= 1 ( 3/5 + 2/5 1/5)
= 1 4/5
= 1/5
(b) P( student reads English news paper when it is given that she reads Hindi news paper)
= P B / A

P A B 1 / 5 1

.
P A
3/ 5 3

(c) P( student reads Hindi news paper when it is given the reads English news paper)
= P A / B

P A B 1 / 5 1

P B
2/5 2

Choose the correct answer in Ex. 17 & 18.

17. The probability of obtaining an even prime number on each die when a pair of die is rolled
is (A) 0
(B) 1/3
(C) 1/12
(D) 1/36.
Solution: n(S) = 36
P(obtaining an even prime number on each die)

= 1/36 { since (2, 2) is the only favorable out comes}

18. Two events A and B are said to be independent, if
(A) A and B are mutually exclusive (B) P ( A' B ' ) 1 P ( A)1 P ( B )
(C) P(A) = P(B)

(D) P(A) + P(B) = 1

Solution : A and B are independent events

If P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
i.e. if P(A` B`) = P(A B)`
= 1 P(A B)
= 1 {P(B) + P(A) - P(A B) }
= 1 { P(B) + P(A) - P(A) P(B)}
= 1 P(A) P(B) {1 - P(A)}
= {1 P(A)} {1 P(B)}

PARTITION OF A SAMPLE SPACE

A set of events E1, E2, E3, - - - - En is said to represent a partition of the sample space if
(a) Ei Ej = i j, i, j = 1, 2, 3, - - - n.
(b) E1 E2 E3 - - - - En = S and
(c) P(Ei) > 0 for all i = 1, 2, 3, - - - n.
In other words the events E1, E2, E3, - - - - En represents a partition of the sample space if
they are pair wise disjoint, exhaustive and have non-zero probabilities.
NOTE:- It may be mentioned that the partition of a sample space is not unique. There can
be several partition of the same sample space.

THEOREM OF TOTAL PROBABILITY

Let { E1, E2, E3, - - - - En }be a partition of the sample space S, and suppose that each of the
events E1, E2, E3, - - - - En has non zero probability of occurrence. Let A be any event
associated with S, then
P(A) = P(E1) P(A/E1) + P(E2) P(A/E2) + P(E3) P(A/E3) + - - - - - + P(En) P(A/En)
n

j 1

P(Ej) P(A/Ej)

Proof :- Given that E1, E2, E3, - - - - En is a partition of

the sample space. Therefore
S = E1 E2 E3 - - - - En and Ei Ej =
i j, i, j = 1, 2, 3, - - - n.
We know that for any event A,
A = A S
= A (E1 E2 E3 - - - - En )

E1

= (A E1)
En)

E2

(A E2)

(A E3)

- - - - - (A

S
En
A

E3

-- --

Also A Ei and A Ej are respectively subset if Ei and Ej. We know that Ei and Ej are
disjoint for i j, therefore A Ei and A Ej are also disjoint for all i j, i, j = 1, 2, 3, - - n.
Thus P(A) = P[(A E1)

(A E2)

(A E3)

- - - - - (A En)]

= P(A E1) + P(A E2) + P(A E3) + - - - - + P(A En)

Now by multiplication rule of probability, we have
P(A Ei) = P(Ei) P(A/Ei) as P(Ei) . P(A/Ei) 0 for all i = 1, 2, 3, - - - n.
P(A) = P(E1) P(A/E1) + P(E2) P(A/E2) + P(E3) P(A/E3) + - - - - - + P(En) P(A/En)
n

j 1

P(Ej) P(A/Ej)

BAYES THEOREM
If E1, E2, E3, - - - - En are non empty events which constitute a partition of sample space S,
i.e. E1, E2, E3, - - - - En are pair wise disjoint and S = E1 E2 E3 - - - - En, and A is
any event of non zero probability, then
P ( E i / A)

P ( Ei ) P ( A / E i )
n

P( E
j 1

) P( A / E j )

for any i = 1, 2, 3, - - - n.

Proof: By formula of conditional probability, we know that

P E i / A

P A Ei
P A

=
P ( E i / A)

P( Ei ) P( A / Ei )
P ( A)

(multiplication theorem)

P ( Ei ) P ( A / E i )
n

P( E
j 1

) P( A / E j )

(by theorem of total probability)

NOTE :1. The following terminology is generally used when Bayes theorem is applied
The events E1, E2, E3, - - - - En are called hypotheses.
The probability P(Ei) is called the priori probability of the hypothesis Ei. The conditional
probability P(Ei/A) is called posteriori probability of the hypothesis Ei.
2. Bayes theorem is also called the formula for the probability of Causaes. Since the Eis
are a partition of the sample space S, one and only one of the events Ei occurs( i.e. one
of the events Ei must occur). Hence the above formula gives us the probability of
particular Ei (i.e. a Cause), given that the event A has occurred.
_________________________________________________________________________
Example 15: (Problem based on total probability): A person has undertaken a
construction job. The probabilities are 0.65 that there will be strike, 0.80 that
the construction job will be completed on the time if there is no strike and
0.32 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is a strike.

Determine the probability that the construction job will be completed on

time.
Solution : Let A be the event that the construction job will be completed on time, and B be
the event there will be a strike. We have to find P(A).
P(B) = 0.65, P(no strike) = P(B`) = 1 0.65 = 0.35, P(A/B) = 0.32,
P(A/B`) = 0.80.
Since events B and B` form a partition of the sample space S, therefore by
theorem on total probability, we have
P(A) = P(B) . P(B/A) + P(B`) . P(A/B`)
= 0.65 0.32 + 0.35 0.80 = 0.208 + 0.28 =0.448
Thus the probability that the construction job will be completed in time is
0.448.
BAYES THEOREM
Example 16. Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another bag II contains 5 red and 6
black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bag and it is found
to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from the bag II.
Solution : Let E1 be the event of choosing the bag I and E 2 the event of choosing the bag II,
and A be the event of drawing a red ball.
P(E1) = P(E2) =
P(A/ E1) = P(drawing red ball from bag I) = 3/7
P(A/ E2) = P(drawing red ball from bag II) = 5/11
Now, the probability of drawing a ball from bag II, being given that it is red,
i.e. P(E2/A)
By using Bayes theorem
P( E 2 ) P ( A / E 2 )
P E 2 / A
P ( E1 ) P ( A / E1 ) P ( E 2 ) P ( A / E 2 )
=

1 / 2 5 / 11
35

1 / 2 3 / 7 1 / 2 5 / 11 68

Example 17: Given three identical boxes I, II and III each containing two coins. In box I,
both coins are gold coin, in box II, both are silver coin and in the box III,
there is one gold & one silver coin. A person chooses a box at random and
takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other
coin in the box is also of gold?
Solution: Let E1 : box I is chosen, E2: box II is chosen & E3: box III is chosen.
Then P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = 1/3
Let A: the coin drawn is of gold
Then P(A/E1) = 2/2 = 1, P(A/E2) = 0/2 = 0, P(A/E3) =
Now, the probability that the other coin in the box is of gold
= the probability that gold coin is drawn from the box I.
= P(E1/A)
by Bayes theorem,

P E1 / A

P ( E1 ) P ( A / E1 )
P ( E1 ) P ( A / E1 ) P ( E 2 ) P ( A / E 2 ) P ( E 3 ) P ( A / E 3 )

1/ 3 1
1/ 3
2

1/ 3 1 1/ 3 0 1/ 3 1/ 2 1/ 3 1/ 6 3

Example 18: Suppose that the reliability of a HIV test is specified as follows: of people
having HIV, 90% of the test detected the disease but 10% go undetected. Of
people free of HIV, 99% of test are judged HIV negative but 1% are
diagnosed as showing HIV positive, from a large population of which 0.1%
have HIV, one person is selected at random, given the HIV test, and the
pathologist report him/her as HIV +ve. What is the probability that the
person actually has HIV?
Solution: Let E : person selected is actually having HIV
A : persons HIV test is diagnosed as + ve
We have to find P(E/A)
Also, E` : person selected is actually not having HIV.
Clearly, { E, E`}is a partition of the sample space of all people in the
population.
Given that P(E) = 0.1% = 0.1/100 = 0.001
P(E`) = 1 P(E) = 1 0.001 = 0.999
P(A/E) = P( person tested as HIV + ve given that he/she is actually having
HIV)
= 90% = 90/100 = 0.9
P(A/E`) = P( person tested as HIV + ve given that he/she is actually not
having HIV)
= 1% = 1/100 = 0.01
By Bayes theorem
P( E ) P( A / E )
0.001 0.9

P ( E ) P ( A / E ) P ( E `) P ( A / E `) 0.001 0.9 0.999 0.01

90

0.083
1089

P ( E / A)

Thus the probability that a person selected at random is actually HIV given
that he/she is tested HIV +ve is 0.083.
Example 19. In a factory which manufactures bolts, machine A, B and C manufacture
respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bolts, of their outputs 5, 4 and 2
percent are respectively defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the
product and is found defective. What is the probability that it is
manufactured by the machine B?
Solution: Let B1: the bolt is manufactured by machine A
B2: the bolt is manufactured by machine B
B3: the bolt is manufactured by machine C
Obviously, B1, B2 and B3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and hence they
represent a partition of the sample space.
Let E: the bolt is defective
The event E occurs with B1, or with B2 or with B3.
Given that P(B1) = 25% = 0.25, P(B2) = 35% = 0.35, P(B3) = 40% = 0.40.
Again P(E/B1) = P(bolt drawn is defective given that it is manufactured by machine A)
= 5% = 0.05
Similarly P(E/B2) = P(bolt drawn is defective given that it is manufactured by machine B)

= 0.04
P(E/B2) = P(bolt drawn is defective given that it is manufactured by machine C)
= 0.02
Hence by Bayes theorem
P ( B2 / E )

P ( B2 ) P ( E / B2 )
P ( B1 ) P( E / B1 ) P( B2 ) P( E / B2 ) P( B3 ) P( E / B3 )

0.35 0.04
0.25 0.05 0.35 0.04 0.04 0.02
0.0140 28

0.0345 69

Example 20: A doctor is to visit a patient, from the past experience, it is known that the
probabilities that he will come by train, bus, scooter or by other means of
transport are respectively
late are

3 1 1
2
, ,
& . . The probabilities that he will be
10 5 10
5

1 1
1
, and
, if he comes by train, bus and scooter respectively, but
4 3
12

if he comes by other means of transport, then he will not be late. When he

arrives, he is late, what is the probability that he comes by train?
Solution: Let T1: the doctor comes by train
T2: the doctor comes by bus
T3: the doctor comes by scooter
T4: the doctor comes by any other mean of transport
E : the doctor visits the patient late
Here P(T1) = 3/10, P(T2) = 1/5, P(T3) = 1/10, and P(T4) = 2/5.
Note that P(T1) + P(T2) + P(T3) + P(T4) = 3/10 +1/5 + 1/10 + 2/5 = 1
P ( E / T1 ) P(the doctor arriving late come by train) =
P(E/T2) = 1/3, P(E/T3) = 1/12 and P(E/T4) = 0. (since he is not late by coming any
other mean of transport)
We have to find P(T1/E) = P(the doctor arriving late comes by train)
P (T1 ) P ( E / T1 )
P (T1 ) P( E / T1 ) P (T2 ) P ( E / T2 ) P (T3 ) P ( E / T3 ) P (T4 ) P ( E / T4 )
3 1

30 120 1
10 4

=
3 1 1 1 1
1 2
40 18
2

0
10 4 5 3 10 12 5
Example 21: A man is kwon to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that
it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually six.
Solution : E : the man reports that six occurs in throwing the die.
S1 : the six occurs
S2 : the six does not occur.

P(S1) = P(six occurs) = 1/6

P(S2) = P(six does not occur) = 5/6
P(E/S1) = P(man reports that six occurs when six has actually occurred on the die)
= P(man speaks the truth) =
P(E/S2) = P(man reports that six occurs when six has not actually occurred on the die)
= P(man speaks a lie)
=1=
Now, by Bayes theorem
P(S1/E) = P( the report of the man that six has occurred is actually a six)
1 3

P S1 P E / S 1
1 24 3
6 4

P S1 P ( E / S1 ) P S 2 P E / S 2 1 3 5 1 8 8
8

6 4 6 4

EXERCIES 13.3
1. An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its colour is noted
and is returned to the urn. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn are put in the
urn and then a ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that the second ball is
red?
Solution: Required probability = P( second ball is red)
= P( a red ball is drawn and returned along with 2 red balls
and then a red ball is drawn) + P( a black ball is drawn
and returned along with 2 black balls and then a red
ball is drawn)
=

5
7
5
5
35 25
60
1

10 12 10 12
120
120 2

2. A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. One
of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the bag which is found to
be red. Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag.
Solution: Let E1: first bag is selected
E2: second bag is selected
Then E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive,
P(E1) = P(E2) =
Let E: ball drawn is red
Required probability = P(E1/E) =

P E1 P E / E1
P E1 P E / E1 P E 2 P E / E 2

1 4
1
1

1 8 2
2 8
4 4
=
1 4 1 2 1 1 3 4 3 3

2 8 2 8 4 8 8