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12)
Discounted Cash flow Techniques Merits
a) This method takes into account the entire economic life of an
investment and income there from. It gives the rate of return offered by
a new project.
b) It gives due weight to time factor of financing. In the words of Charles
Horngreen Because the discounted cash-flow method explicitly and
routinely weights the time value of money, it is the best method to use
for long-range decisions.
c) It permits direct comparison of the projected returns on investments
with the cost of borrowing money which is not possible in other
methods
d) It makes allowance for differences in the time at which investment
generate their income.
e) This approach by recognising the time factor makes sufficient provision
for uncertainty and risk. It offers a good measure of relative profitability
of capital expenditure by reducing the earnings to the present values.
13)
Discounted Cash flow Techniques Demerits
a) It involves a good amount of calculations. Hence it is difficult and
complicated one. But this criticism has no force
b) It is very difficult to forecast the economic life of any investment
exactly
c) The selection of cash-inflow is based on sales forecasts which are in
itself an indeterminable element
d) The selection of an appropriate rate of interest is also difficult
14)
Comparison Between NPV and IRR (NPV VS. IRR)
a) IRR method, discount rate is not predetermined. - In the net present
value method the present value is determined by discounting the
future cash flows of a project at a predetermined or specified rate
called the cut off rate based on cost of capital
b) The NPV method recognizes the importance of market rate of interest
or cost of capital. It arrives at the amount to be invested in a given
project so that its anticipated earnings would recover the amount
invested in the project at market rate. Contrary to this, the IRR method
does not consider the market rate of interest and seeks to determine
the maximum rate of interest at which funds invested in any project
could be repaid with the earnings generated by the project
c) The basic presumption of NPV method is that intermediate cash inflows
are reinvested at the cut off rate, whereas, in the case of IRR method,
intermediate cash flows are presumed to be reinvested at the internal
rate of return
d) The results shown by NPV method are similar to that of IRR method
under certain situations, whereas, the two give contradictory results
under some other circumstances. However, it must be remembered
that NPV method using a predetermined cut-off rate is more reliable
than the IRR method for ranking two or more capital investment
proposals
e) Similarities of Results under NPV and IRR - NPV and IRR methods would
show similar results in terms of accept or reject decisions in the
following cases 1) Independent investment proposals which do not
compete with one another and which may be either accepted orrejected on the basis of a minimum required rate of return 2)
Conventional investment proposals which involve cash outflows or
outlays in the initial period followed by a series of cash inflows
15)
Conflict between NPV and IRR Results
a) Significant difference in the size (amount) of cash outlays of various
proposals under consideration.
b) Problem of difference in the cash flow patterns or timings of the various
proposals
c) Difference in service life or unequal expected lives of the projects
RISK ANALYSIS IN CAPITAL BUJGETING:
1) Capital rationing is a situation where a firm has more investment
proposals than it can finance - a situation where a constraint is placed on
the total size of capital investment during a particular period
2) Selecting of projects for this purpose will require the taking of the
following steps
a) Ranking of projects according to profitability index or internal-rate of
return.
b) Selecting projects in descending order of profitability until the budget
figures are exhausted keeping in view the objective of maximizing the
value of the firm
3) Meaning of Risk and Uncertainty
a) Risk involves situations in which the probabilities of an event occurring
are known and these probabilities are objectively determinable
b) Uncertainty is a subjective phenomenon. In such situation, no
observation can be drawn from frequency distribution.
c) Risk - the variability that is likely to occur in the future returns from the
project
d) It is worth noting that distinction between risk and uncertainty is of
academic interest only. Practically no generally accepted methods
could so far be evolved to deal with situation of uncertainty while there
are innumerable techniques to deal with risk
e) capital budgeting decision is based upon the benefits derived from the
project - benefits are measured in terms of cash flows - These cash
flows are estimates - estimation of future returns is done on the basis
of various assumptions - actual return in terms of cash inflows depends
on a variety of factors such as price, sales volume, effectiveness of the
advertising campaign, competition, cost of raw materials, etc. - The
accuracy of the estimates of future returns and therefore the reliability
of the investment decision would largely depend upon the precision
with which these factors are forecast - The term risk with reference to
investment decisions may be defined as the variability in the actual
returns emanating from a project in future over its working life in
relation to the estimated return as forecast at the time of the initial
capital budgeting decision
f) risk analysis in capital budgeting decisions can be broken into three
types
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
1) Uncertainty
2) Risk and
3) Certainty
g) The difference between risk and uncertainty lies in the fact that the
variability is less in risk than in the uncertainty
h) In the words of Osteryang, J.S. Capital budgeting risk refers to the set
of unique outcomes for a given event which can be assigned
probabilities while uncertainty refers to the outcomes of a given event
which are too sure to be assigned probabilities
Types of Uncertainties
a) Price uncertainty
b) Production uncertainty
c) Production technology uncertainty
d) Political uncertainty
e) Personal uncertainty
f) Peoples uncertainty
Precautions for Uncertainties
a) one or all the three
1) Measures can be adopted to reduce the variability or dispersion of
income
2) Measures can be adopted to prevent profit from falling below some
minimum level
3) Measures can be adopted to increase the firms ability to withstand
unfavourable economic outcomes
Risk and Investment Proposals
a) The Expected Value
b) The Standard Deviation
c) The combination of expected value and standard deviation helps in
choosing between projects. However, if the two projects have identical
expected values, the project with the minimum dispersion in returns
i.e., lower standard deviation is preferred as it is less risky project
Risk and Uncertainty incorporated methods of Capital Project evaluation
a) Uncertainty is total lack of ability to pinpoint expected return
b) risk situations are characterized by a considerable degree of past
experience
c) Uncertainty on the other hand relates to situations in some sense
unique and of which there is very little certain knowledge of some or all
significant aspects
techniques used to handle risk may be classified into the groups as follows
a) Conservative methods
1) Shorter Payback Period cut-off period
2) Risk Adjusted Discount Rate (RADR) - risk discount factor based on
risk attitude of management
3) RADR merits - simple and easy to handle in practice - discount
rates can be adjusted for the varying degrees of risk in different
years, simply by increasing or decreasing the risk factor (d) in
calculating the risk adjusted discount rate - This method of
discounting is such that the higher the risk factor in the remote
future is, automatically accounted for. The risk adjusted discount
rate is a composite rate which combines both the time and discount
factors