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MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
3.1. MALTHUS MODEL OF
POPULATION
The total population of a country is clearly a
function of time, N(t) [NOTE: N may be measured in millions, so values of N less than 1 are
meaningful!]. Given the population now, can
we predict what it will be in the future?
Suppose that B is a function giving the per
capita birth-rate in a given society, ie B is
the number of babies born per second, divided
1
N
t
0,
dN
= (B D)N = kN
dt
3
(1)
if k = B D.
This model of society was put forward by
Thomas Malthus in 1798. Clearly Malthus
was assuming a socially static society in which
human reproductive behaviour never changes
with time or overcrowding, poverty etc... What
does Malthus model predict? Suppose that the
population now is N , and let t = 0 now.
R dN
R
dN
kdt =
From dt = kN we have
N =
R
k dt = kt + c
so ln(N ) = kt + c and thus N (t) = Aekt.
Since N = N (0) = A, we get:
N (t) = N ekt
with graphs as shown on figure 1.
4
(2)
(3)
We have to solve
dN
= BN DN = BN sN 2
dt
with the condition N (0) = N
We can and will solve this, but lets try to
guess what the solution will look like (a useful
skill - in many other cases you wont be able to
solve exactly!). Suppose that N is very small.
Then (by continuity) N (t) will be very small for
t near to zero.
Of course if N is small, N 2 is much smaller
and can be neglected. [Remember that N may
be measured in millions or billions, so N can be
small.] So at early times, our ODE is almost
9
linear and so
dN
BN N (t) N eBt
dt
So at first the population explodes, as Malthus
predicted. On the other hand, if N continues
to grow, since N 2 grows faster than N , we will
reach a point where sN 2 BN ie N B/S.
2
At that point , since dN
=
BN
SN
, the popdt
ulation will stop growing. So B/S should measure the maximum population possible. So we
guess that the solution should look like this:
ie it starts out exponentially and ends up
approaching B/S asymptotically. The dotted
part is a reasonable guess!
OK, now that we know what to expect, lets
10
dN
= BN sN 2 t =
dt
Write
1
N (BsN )
dN
+c
N (B sN )
+ BsN
1 = (B sN ) + N
= B + ( s)N 1 = B , = s
= 1/B , = s/B, so
11
dN
dN
dN
1
s
=
+
N (B sN )
B
N
B B sN
1
1
=
ln N ln |B sN |
B
B
Now here we begin to feel uneasy - what if
1
BsN
12
and we get
1
1
t =
ln N ln(B sN ) + c
B
B
N
1
ln
+c
=
B B sN
So
N
BsN
BsN
=K
so
N
N
=
eBt
B sN B sN
Solve for N ,
B
N (t) =
s+
(4)
s eBt
Check: N (0) =
B
s+ B s
= N correct! Check:
dN
dt
tion.
14
Its easy to see what is happening here. Initially the population is small, plenty of food and
space, so we get a Malthusian population explosion. But eventually the death rate rises until it
is almost equal to the birth rate (ie sN B or
N B/s) and then the population approaches
a fixed limit.
This situation is what people usually mean
when they use the word logistic. But we
are not done yet: on page 12 we assumed that
N (t) < B/s. What if N (t) > B/s?
15
Then |B sN | = (B sN ) so:
1
1
ln N ln(sN B) + c
B
B
1
N
=
ln
+c
B sN B
t =
N (t) =
B
B
Bt
s sN
e
(5)
(6)
N (t) =
1+
N (t) =
(N < N) (7)
(N > N) (8)
1 eBt
N
1 1 NN eBt
17
(9)
has no solutions, ie
B2
B 4sE < 0 or E >
4s
2
.
Since dN
dt = F (N ), we see that in this case the
21
B
2s .
After that, | dN
dt | increases
22
dN
dt
= F (N ) implies
d2N
dN
0
0
=
F
(N
)
=
F
(N )F (N )
dt2
dt
B2
4s
B2
4s
24
dN
dt
= F (N ), we see
dN
< 0 if 0 < N < 1
dt
dN
> 0 if 1 < N < 1
dt
dN
< 0 if N > 2
dt
and of course dN
dt = 0 at N = 1 and 2 , where
2
1 B B 4Es B B 2 4Es
=
=
2
2s
2s
Now suppose N = N (0) is large, so we start
at point C on the diagram. Then
dN
dt
< 0 so the
dN
dt
= F (N ) has solutions
N (t) = 1 and N (t) = 2, the constant solutions. We call 1 and 2 the equilibrium
populations: given a fixed harvesting rate,
26
B2
4s .
dN
dt
= N (B sN ) E, we
have:
Z
dt = T =
0
dN
N (B sN ) E
Of course it is very important to know T it is the amount of time you have to save the
situation!
28
Clearly N =
B
2s
B
2s
(for exam-
to
B
2s ,
dN
dt
dN
dt
= F (N ))
B
2s .
[We only
B2
4s .
B2
4s ,
B+ B 2 4Es
.
2s
approximately constant,
dN
B0 D
.
dt
33