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VOLUME
Thoughts
beyond politics:
2016
under
rodrigo
duterte
OCCASIONAL
PAPER
DECEMBER 2016
02
Thoughts
beyond
2016
politics:
under
rodrigo
duterte
THE PHILIPPINES
This paper begins with some thoughts on the major political trends affecting
the Philippines and other countries. It continues on to trace the state
of the Philippines at the end of 2016, with focus on the changes
instituted by the new Duterte administration
C 2016 ADRiNSTITUTE for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.
* The views and opinions expressed in this Paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute.
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The dismal track record of the Philippine manufacturing sector in attracting investments
and increasing employment can be attributed to inefficient industrial structure. This
structure is marked by the limited ability of the industrial sector to absorb more employees,
declines in productivity, the absence of structural changes, the geographic concentration
of manufacturing hubs, and an incentive structure that favors large firms.2 For this reason,
ADRi advocacy has included the importance of the Philippines rethinking its long-term
manufacturing strategy and instituting an export-promotion orientation. As a first step,
the Philippines should lift the economic restrictions of the 1987 Philippine Constitution,
and complement this move with a New Industrial Policy and the completion of tradefacilitating infrastructure projects that promote domestic and international connectivity.
Since taking office, President Rodrigo Duterte has expressed his openness to lifting
the economic restrictions of the Constitution as part of his broader effort to revise the
constitution for a federal government. In early December, Duterte signed an Executive
Order creating a team to study the prospect of revising the constitution via constituent
assembly. The president indicated that he was willing to allow an ownership share
of up to 70% to foreigners, with the exception of land, where long-term
leases especially for agriculture would be preferred.3
The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) presently has a Comprehensive National
Industrial Strategy. At present, it remains to be seen whether Director-General Ernesto
Pernia of the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA), will adopt or modify the
New Industrial Policy. The governments economic focus has been on developing the
countrys infrastructure, specifically to usher in a Golden Age of Infrastructure with plans
for record-high infrastructure spending to the tune of Php 8.2-9 Trillion. By mid-December,
the new NEDA board had approved 18 infrastructure projects.4 Complementing the
administrations infrastructure goals, the Senate ratified the Philippines membership in the
China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) before adjourning in December.
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the most attention has been his war on drugs, which had
initially promised to be a focused, time-bound campaign that
included coordinated efforts between the military and police.9
Presently the subject of significant international attention, the
drug war has claimed over 6,000 casualties from a combination
of police operations and alleged vigilante justice.
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commitments. The Philippines and Japan also agreed to harness Official Development
Assistance (ODA) to support inclusive growth and sustainable development.16
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The AFP modernization laws tedious and complex bidding procedure as well as the limited
annual government funding for the military made it difficult for the Aquino administration to
acquire big ticket items, particularly for the Philippine Navy (PN) and the Philippine Air Force
(PAF).17 The Duterte administration should seek to develop a credible defense posture that
would make a potential adversary think twice before using force against the Philippines;
the efforts to redirect the AFP from internal security to territorial defense are and should
still be geared for a modest goal of developing a comprehensive border patrol system
and not naval war-fighting capabilities. More specifically, the administration should
ensure that AFP is prepared with maritime awareness capabilities and limited
maritime/air interdiction competencies for joint force warfare (see the
Foreign Policy section on priorities in the maritime space).
On a regional scale, the AFP should train in combined operations with allied forces,
especially the United States and its other bilateral allies such as Japan, Australia, and
South Korea. No amount of resources and arms acquisition can enable the Philippines to
face an assertive and militarily powerful China in the South China Sea in the worst case
scenario. The Philippine efforts to develop a credible defense posture must be seen as a
complement (rather than a substitute) to the strategic deterrence provided by US forward
naval deployment and bilateral alliances in East Asia. However, the Duterte administration
has sought to downgrade the Philippines relationship with the United States, reducing the
number of joint exercises and introducing hostility in the tone of the relationship.
In addition to these developments, President Duterte has sent positive signals
over arms purchases from China, payable over 25 years. In December, Defense
Secretary Delfin Lorenzana also visited Russia to explore the
possibility of purchasing high-quality sniper rifles.
Image Credit:rappler.com
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endnotes
For an extensive look at the Philippines fourth quarter indicators, please
see ADRis Economic Snapshots.
For a more in-depth discussion of these factors, Dr. Epictetus Patalinghug
describes the state of Philippine trade and investment in a chapter of Thinking Beyond
Politics, published by ADRi in 2016.
3
Adrian Ayalin, Duterte signs EO to study Charter Change, ABS-CBN
News, 08 December 2016, accessed 12 December 2016, http://news.abs-cbn.com/
news/12/08/16/duterte-signs-eo-to-study-charter-change.
4
Wilson Lee Flores, The Philippines will be the worlds fastest growing economy in Asia, Philippine Star, 12 December 2016, accessed 12 December
2016, http://www.philstar.com/business-life/2016/12/12/1652501/philippines-will-beworlds-fastest-growing-economy-asia.
5
Pia Ranada, Duterte supports K to 12, Rappler, 24 May 2016, accessed
25 May 2016, http://www.rappler.com/nation/134106-duterte-supports-k-12.
14
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr., The Philippine electricity market: Monopoly and
competition, Business World Online, 13 August 2015, accessed 25 May 2016, http://
www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Weekender&title=the-philippine-electricity-market-monopoly-and-competition&id=113411.
15
Danessa Rivera, Cusi: Duterte greenlights BNPP rehab, Philippine Star,
12 November 2016, accessed 12 December 2016, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/11/12/1642953/cusi-duterte-greenlights-bnpp-rehab.
16
Edith Regalado, Duterte says Japan a true friend, Philippine Star,
29 October 2016, accessed 15 December 2016, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/29/1638445/duterte-says-japan-true-friend.
17
Renato C. de Castro, PhD, A 21st Century Philippine National Security
Agenda: The Aquino Administrations Efforts for Developing a Credible Defense Posture, Thinking Beyond Politics: A Strategic Agenda for the Next President (Quezon
City: ADRi, 2015), p. 42.
6
Duterte-Cayetano: we will implement a better, bolder CCT program, Alan
Cayetano official website, 12 February 2016, accessed 25 May 2016, http://alanpetercayetano.com/news/2016/02/dutertecayetano-we-will-implement-a-better-boldercct-program.
7
For a fuller discussion of these and other findings, see Dr. Francisco Magnos chapter in Thinking Beyond Politics.
8
Ina Andolong, How Duterte-Cayetano will suppress crime in 3-6 months,
CNN Philippines, 18 April 2016, accessed 17 May 2016, http://cnnphilippines.com/
news/2016/04/15/Duterte-Cayetano-plan-crime-corruption-drugs.html.
9
Duterte vows to double monthly salary of cops, soldiers, Manila Bulletin,
02 March 2016, accessed 17 May 2016, http://www.mb.com.ph/duterte-vows-todouble-monthly-salary-of-cops-soldiers/.
10
Patty Pasion, Duterte signs order on Freedom of Information, Rappler,
24 July 2016, accessed 12 December 2016, http://www.rappler.com/nation/140718duterte-signs-executive-order-freedom-of-information.
11
Alexis Romero, Duterte eyes whistleblower act, Philippine Star,
26 July 2016, accessed 12 December 2016, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/07/26/1606883/duterte-eyes-whistleblower-act.
12
For a more comprehensive discussion, see the work of Dr. Carlos Primo
David in Thinking Beyond Politics (2016).
13
Helena Agnes S. Valderrama and Carlos C. Bautista, Efficiency Analysis of
Electric Cooperatives in the Philippines, Philippine Management Review 2011, Vol 19,
p. 9.
C 2016 ADRiNSTITUTE for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.
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9.12
VOLUME
ABOUT
Angelica Mangahas
is Deputy Executive Director of the Stratbase ADR Institute.
Immediately prior to joining ADRi, Angelica spent two years in
Washington, DC, where she completed her Masters in Security Studies
and a Certificate in Asian Studies, both at Georgetown University. Her
writing and advocacy experience spans multiple international
humanitarian and diplomatic organizations, including the International
Committee of the Red Cross, the International Rescue Committee, and
the Philippine Embassy to the United States. While with ADRi, Angelica is
focused on issues concerning Philippine security and regional stability.
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