Comparative Analysis

Collect and Record Energy and Driver Data

Use Regression Analysis to Investigate what Drives Energy Use and to Establish a Baseline

Use CUSUM Analysis to Investigate Deviatations in Historical Energy Use from the Baseline

Set a Target for Reduced Energy Consumption Levels

Regression Analysis of Baseline

Variables
Driver
Energy
Tonnes
kWh
150
140,726
80
103,223
60
90,764
50
87,567
170
146,600
180
154,773
120
121,575
40
81,436
110
115,586
90
105,909
40
83,916
50
86,272
140
125,892
155
138,966
165
139,922
190
152,274
40
77,788
55
82,711
150
124,317
80
94,677
63
84,628
110
108,041
70
89,115
170
136,388
190
141,428
160
141,215
120
118,319
190
152,506
80
99,267
90
94,468
180
140,188
70
91,262
50
78,248
155
128,005
167
131,003

Regression Analysis
12
10
8

Energy

Measured Data
Period
Date
Weeks
(Optional)
1
1/7/2002
2
1/14/2002
3
1/21/2002
4
1/28/2002
5
2/4/2002
6
2/11/2002
7
2/18/2002
8
2/25/2002
9
3/4/2002
10
3/11/2002
11
3/18/2002
12
3/25/2002
13
4/1/2002
14
4/8/2002
15
4/15/2002
16
4/22/2002
17
4/29/2002
18
5/6/2002
19
5/13/2002
20
5/20/2002
21
5/27/2002
22
6/3/2002
23
6/10/2002
24
6/17/2002
25
6/24/2002
26
7/1/2002
27
7/8/2002
28
7/15/2002
29
7/22/2002
30
7/29/2002
31
8/5/2002
32
8/12/2002
33
8/19/2002
34
8/26/2002
35
9/2/2002

Menu

6
4
2
0
0

Baseline Period
Start
1
End
11

6
Driver

10

Baseline Regression Model

R2=
Slope 511.059 kWh/Tonnes
Intercept
61,366 kWh
kWh

12

0.996

Tonnes

12

12

10

10

36

9/9/2002

120

109,192

CUSUM Analysis of Deviations from Baseline

Baseline
Energy
kWh

Variance
Energy
kWh

CUSUM
Energy
kWh

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27

140,726
103,223
90,764
87,567
146,600
154,773
121,575
81,436
115,586
105,909
83,916
86,272
125,892
138,966
139,922
152,274
77,788
82,711
124,317
94,677
84,628
108,041
89,115
136,388
141,428
141,215
118,319

138,024
102,250
92,029
86,918
148,246
153,356
122,693
81,808
117,582
107,361
81,808
86,918
132,914
140,580
145,690
158,467
81,808
89,474
138,024
102,250
93,562
117,582
97,140
148,246
158,467
143,135
122,693

2,702
973
(1,265)
649
(1,646)
1,417
(1,118)
(372)
(1,996)
(1,452)
2,108
(646)
(7,022)
(1,614)
(5,768)
(6,193)
(4,020)
(6,763)
(13,707)
(7,573)
(8,934)
(9,541)
(8,025)
(11,858)
(17,039)
(1,920)
(4,374)

2,702
3,674
2,409
3,058
1,412
2,829
1,712
1,340
(656)
(2,108)
0
(646)
(7,668)
(9,282)
(15,050)
(21,243)
(25,263)
(32,026)
(45,733)
(53,306)
(62,240)
(71,781)
(79,806)
(91,664)
(108,702)
(110,622)
(114,996)

28
29
30

152,506
99,267
94,468

158,467
102,250
107,361

(5,961)
(2,983)
(12,893)

(120,956)
(123,940)
(136,833)

CUSUM of Variance from Baseline

12
10
CUSUM of Energy

Period

Actual
Energy
kWh

Menu

8
6
4
2
0

Period

CUSUM Period
Start
1
End
36
CUSUM Stats
Max.
3,674 kWh
Min.
(206,333) kWh
Final
(192,833) kWh
Period of Best Performance
Start
19
End
26

Best Performance Model R2= 0.970

Slope 473.844 kWh/Tonnes
Intercept
56,160 kWh

CUSUM Analysis of Deviations from Baseline

31
32
33
34
35
36

140,188
91,262
78,248
128,005
131,003
109,192

Baseline
Energy
kWh
153,356
97,140
86,918
140,580
146,712
122,693

Variance
Energy
kWh
(13,168)
(5,878)
(8,670)
(12,575)
(15,709)
(13,501)

CUSUM
Energy
kWh
(150,001)
(155,878)
(164,549)
(177,123)
(192,833)
(206,333)

CUSUM of Variance from Baseline

12
10
CUSUM of Energy

Period

Actual
Energy
kWh

Menu

8
6
4
2
0

Period

Setting a Target for Reduced Consumption

Menu

Comparison on Possible Targets

Baseline Regression Model
R2=
511.059 kWh/Tonnes
Slope
61,366 kWh
Intercept

0.996

Best Performance Model

R 2=
473.844
kWh/Tonnes
Slope
56,160 kWh
Intercept

0.970

160,000
140,000

Tonnes
40
190

120,000

Energy

100,000

Estimated Performance Model

90% of baseline
Slope is
459.953 kWh/Tonnes
Slope
90% of baseline
Intercept is
55,229 kWh
Intercept
Estimated Performance
At Minimum Value
AtMaximum Value

Comparison of Targets

80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000

kWh
73,627
142,620

20

At Average Performance
At Baseline Performance
At Best Performance
At Estimated Performance

60

80

Baseline

Annualized Estimate of Savings

Weeks per year
Annual Tonnes
Average Performance

40

52
6,000 Tonnes
999.553 kWh/Tonnes

kWh/Year
5,997,318
6,257,361
5,763,396
5,631,625

Projected Savings
(260,043)
233,921
365,693

-4.3%
3.9%
6.1%

100
Driver 120

140

160

180

Linear (Baseline)

200