EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

June 2012

SCB EIC summary of main forecasts

Key indicators
Real GDP growth
Demand-side
Private consumption
Public consumption
Investment (GFCF)
Private investment
Public investment
Supply-side
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
External sector
Export growth excl. gold (USD)
Import growth excl. gold (USD)
Current account
Key rates
Headline inflation
Core inflation
Policy rate (RP-1D) (end period)
THB/USD (period average)
THB/USD (end period)
THB/EUR (end period)
THB/JPY (end period)
THB/CNY (end period)
Oil prices Brent (period average)
International tourists

2011
Share (%)

Unit

Actual

SCB EIC forecast

Consensus

12Q4
2012
16.5% 5.6-5.8%

BOT

% YOY

2011
0.1%

12Q1
0.3%

12Q2
3.6%

12Q3
3.0%

52.0%
10.1%
21.5%
16.8%
4.7%

% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY
% YOY

1.3%
1.4%
3.3%
7.2%
-8.7%

2.7%
-1.6%
5.2%
9.2%
-9.6%

3.0%
4.0%
9.3%
9.1%
10.0%

3.6%
3.0%
10.8%
11.1%
10.0%

7.1%
7.0%
19.3%
18.0%
25.0%

4.1%
3.0%
11.0%
11.7%
8.2%

8.6%
39.0%
52.4%

% YOY
% YOY
% YOY

3.8%
-4.3%
2.9%

2.8%
-4.2%
3.4%

2.1%
3.0%
4.4%

1.2%
3.4%
3.0%

1.4%
36.0%
7.5%

1.9%
7.9%
4.5%

% YOY
% YOY
USD bln

17%
20%
11.9

-4%
10%
0.6

5%
12%
-0.9

4%
13%
-0.6

43%
34%
2.8

11%
17%
1.8

10%
16%
6.1

7.0%
11.7%
-4.9

% YOY
% YOY
% p.a.
THB/USD
THB/USD
THB/EUR
THB/100JPY
THB/CNY
USD/bbl
%YOY

3.8%
2.4%
3.25%
30.5
31.2
41.0
40.2
4.9
111.1
14%

3.4%
2.7%
3.00%
31.0
30.7
40.6
37.2
4.9
118.6
7.1%

2.6%
2.0%
3.00%
31.3
31.5
40.3
39.4
5.1
105
0.7%

3.5%
2.3%
3.00%
30.5
30.5
39.7
38.1
4.9
110
1.3%

4.4%
2.7%
3.00%
30.0
30.0
40.2
37.5
4.9
110
17.3%

3.5-4.0%
2.5-3.0%
3.00%
30.6
30.0
40.2
37.5
4.9
110
7.0%

3.4%

3.5%
2.5%

Sources: SCB EIC forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (May 2012), May 2012 Bank of Thailands Inflation Report and Foreign research houses.

2012
5.3%

2012
6.0%

4.0%

5.7%
4.9%

11.0%
14.3%
17.9%