A Forecasting Model for Stratford Festival

A Forecasting Model for Stratford Festival

Jenny Scudamore (Director of Products)
Stratford Festival in Ontario, Canada comprises a rep season of 600+ performances in four main venues from
April to November, with a budget of over $60m and sales of 500k tickets each year.
The Pricing Institute has worked with Stratford since 2010 on developing pricing and other strategies, but a
specific need emerged for a forecasting tool. Having long been pioneers in dynamic pricing, the organization
knew that it was vital to always be able to answer the question are we selling better or worse than we
expected?
The Aims
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To identify the key pre-season predictors of the shape and speed of sales, for the different venues and
programmes.

To build this knowledge into an interactive model that the organization could use themselves
repeatedly in the coming years, to both set sales expectations for the season, and then monitor how
sales are tracking against those forecasts.

Finding the Future

The Pricing Institute partner, Baker Richards, carried out in-depth statistical research, including multivariate
regression analysis, to determine the key predictors of sales.
As well as the usual differences between days and times, it was crucial to represent subjective variables,
such as the relative popularity of different titles. A scoring system was developed for staff to use, and became
a key factor in analysis. All past performances were then divided into comparator groups according to the
variables that had emerged as vital. This forms the evidence base for the tool.

A Forecasting Model for Stratford Festival

The Model
The custom tool created for Stratford stores the
comparator data and calculates, from basic production
details entered, which comparator group is the best
match for each performance. It shows the forecast
ticket sales on this basis.
The model is all built in Excel so that it can be opened
wherever, whenever, and can be used to plan the whole
season with the minimum of data-entry.

Minding the Money

The forecasting element of the tool was found to be highly
accurate the actual sales achieved in 2013 were within 1%
of what the model predicted.
The other aim was just as important: to allow easy close
monitoring of each and every performance during the sales
cycle. The model allows real sales data to be entered for
instant comparison, with alerts to show which performances
are tracking significantly ahead of or behind their target. Its
by monitoring closely that Stratford ensure that their
dynamic pricing goes from strength to strength.

Trudy Watson, Associate Director of Marketing at Stratford Festival, says:

This model is an important tool for the Stratford Festival in predicting sales and assessing early sales trends.
I feel very confident in its reliability. With tight budgets in the arts, accurate forecasting is
crucial and The Pricing Institutes model is our crystal ball.