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China Dumps Treasuries: Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $403 Billion In
US Paper
by Tyler Durden
Dec 16, 2016 4:58 AM
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One month ago, when we last looked at the Fed's update of Treasuries held in custody, we noted something troubling: the number had continued to drop sharply,
declining by another $14 billion in one week, and pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.788 trillion, the lowest since 2012. One month later, we
refresh this chart and find that in last week's update, there is finally some good news: foreign central banks finally bought some US paper held in the Fed's
custody account, which following months of liquidation, rose over the past two weeks by $23 billion, the biggest two-week advance since November of 2016,
pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.816 trillion, the highest since early October.
That was the good news, and we use the term loosely in as much as the custody account can be used as a proxy of foreign buying, which according to most rates
watchers, it can.
The bad news came out with the release of latest monthly Treasury International Capital data for the month of October, which showed that the troubling trend
presented one month ago, has accelerated to an unprecedented degree.
Recall that in mid-November, we reported that in the latest 12 months we observed a record $375 billion in Treasury selling by foreign central banks in the
period August 2015-September 2016, something unprecedented in size.
Fast forward to today when in the latest monthly update for the month of October, we find that what until a month ago was "merely" a record $375 billion in
offshore central bank sales in the LTM period ending September 30 has, one month later, risen to a new all time high $403 billion in Treasuries sold in the
past 12 months.
As the chart below shows, there has never been such an aggressive selling of US Treasuries over a 12 month period in history.
The biggest seller, and keep in mind that TIC data is on a market-price adjusted basis, was once again was China, which in October "sold" a record $41 billion in
US paper (the actual underlying number while different, as this particular series is adjusted for Mark to Market variations, will be similar), and a massive $125
billion in the last 4 months, bringing its total Treasury holdings to just $1.116 trillion, the lowest amount of US paper held by Beijing since 2010. In the
process, China has now been overtaken by Japan for the top US creditor position in terms of total holdings with $1.132 trillion, for just the second time.
It wasn't just China: Belgium, which has long been rumored to be the venue where China's keeps its "secret" offshore Treasury holdings couretsy of Euroclear,
also dumped its TSY holdings, and in October its stated holdings (which again have to be adjusted for MTM), tumbled from $143Bn to $117Bn, the lowest since
the summer of 2015.
Furthermore, as we have shown previously, when superimposing China and Belgium's holdings together, these tend to allign almost perfectly with the monthly
change in Chinese reserves, which as reported before, have been declining sharply in recent months as a result of China's aggressive attempts to prevent a sharp
devaluation of the Yuan. This can be seen on the chart below, and confirms that at least when it comes to China, the reason for the selling of Treasurys has been
due to reserve liquidation.
As we pointed out one month ago, what has become increasingly obvious is that both foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, reserve managers, and
virtually every other official institution in possession of US paper, is liquidating their holdings at a disturbing pace, something which in light of the recent surge in
yields to over 2 year highs, appears to have been a prudent move.
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NugginFuts Dec 15, 2016 5:02 PM
So this is bullish, right? DOW 30k by year end now?
What could go wrong?
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
Savesettings
As trade slows, EM currencies (including Yuan) fall causing USD demand to pay back local USD denominated debt as soon possible. CB's then sell their
treasuries to get those dollars to meet local demand.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/43077/president-trumps-immediate-emergency
Stuck on Zero Holy hand grenade of Antioch Dec 15, 2016 7:25 PM
What exactly are people trading the treasuries for? Cash? Bank notes? Stocks? Foreign currencies? Acquisitions?
eatthebanksters Yes We Can. But Lets Not. Dec 15, 2016 9:49 PM
Market liquidity no onger seems to be an issue...
Stack the phyzz Ag in 20 ounce chunks...the scumbags might monkey hammer it lower, so don't go all in. Buy little by little on
the way down and a little more once it comes back up.
Watch the GSR (gold to silver price ratio). That's important, bitchez.
And when that ratio comes down to under 30:1 start trading a little phyzz Ag for phyzz Au
That we know about? What about those stealth Treasuries which we are not supposed to know about?
But the trend is not a sneeze to be dismissed. You are correct about that.
The sell off will increase as the current bonds with low yields will be sold off at a discount for bonds that have higher yields. That would be the
smarter long term move.
In 1996, 2001, and 2002 Silver was trading in the low $4.20 to $4.50 ranges.
I was paying five cents per gram for Sterling Silver at Swap Meets and biying lots of it.
You are approaching the Summer months right now? Must be nice and warm.
Best wishes. Pray for us for Monday's Electoral College vote. A nullification might bring us to the brink of Civil War may the Good Lord
forbid.
(The problem is the total lack of understanding that the public has as they was never intended to elect the President according to
the Constitution. But everyone on "both sides" feels entitled to have their vote counted. They believe in DEMOCRACY as they are
DEMOCRAts. They do not understand that the United States is a REPRESENTATIVE REPUBLIC as true REPUBLICans do. Too many RINOs
here.The ENTITLEMENT Mentality is a curse. And when their expectations are failed some will turn to violence. Thomas Jefferson
was correct. A democracy IS the most abhorrent form of Government.)
That is a high elevation. In fact a little over 12,000 feet is the highest elevation to which I have ever climbed. The air is thin and
the atmosphere is rarified. I noticed a striking difference in color intensities. (Perhaps I was stoned from anoxia???) (Mt Agassiz,
San Francisco Peaks, just North of Flagstaff, AZ)
I like it when people believe that they can change the facts by a vote...by consensus. They are so deluded and Mentally Ill.
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
peddling-fiction Yes We Can. But Lets Not. Dec 15, 2016 10:53 PM