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Weo2010 London Nov9 PDF
Weo2010 London Nov9 PDF
OECD/IEA 2010
The context: A time of unprecedented
uncertainty
The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over
but is the recovery sustainable?
China & other emerging economies will shape the global energy
future where will their policy decisions lead us?
OECD/IEA 2010
International oil price assumptions
140
ars per barrel (2009)
Current Policies Scenario
120
New Policies Scenario
100
450 Scenario
80
Dolla
60
40
20
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices
than would otherwise be the case
OECD/IEA 2010
Recent policy commitments,
if implemented, would make a difference
18 000
Mtoe
Rest of world
16 000 China
14 000 OECD
12 000 WEO-2009:
Reference Scenario
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Global energy use grows by 36%, with non-OECD countries led by China,
where demand surges by 75% accounting for almost all of the increase
OECD/IEA 2010
Emerging economies dominate
the growth in demand for all fuels
OECD
Coal
China
Oil Rest of world
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Other renewables
Electricity
(generated from
60 fossil fuels)
Gas
50
Oil
Coal
40
30
20
10
Turkmenistan
South Africa
Saudi Arabia
Bangladesh
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Venezuela
Argentina
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Pakistan
Ukraine
Mexico
Algeria
Kuwait
Russia
Egypt
China
Qatar
Libya
India
UAE
Iraq
Iran
1 600
Million
China
1 400 Other non-OECD
1 200 United States
1 000 Other OECD
800
600
400
200
0
1980 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035
The global car fleet will continue to surge as more & more people in China & other
emerging economies buy a car, overshadowing modest growth in the OECD
OECD/IEA 2010
Oil production becomes less crude
100
mb/d
Unconventional oil
80 Natural gas liquids
Crude oil - fields yet
60 to be developed or found
Crude oil currently
40 producing fields
Total crude oil
20
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of
natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus
OECD/IEA 2010
More oil from fewer producers
Incremental oil production by key country in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
mb/d
Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPECs market share from
41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974
OECD/IEA 2010
A golden age for gas?
Gas is set to play a key role in meeting the worlds energy needs
> demand rises by 44%, led by China & Middle East
Gas glut will peak soon, but may dissipate only very slowly
The glut will keep pressure on gas exporters to move away from
oil-price indexation, notably in Europe
Lower prices could lead to stronger demand for gas, backing out
renewables & coal in power generation
OECD/IEA 2010
Coal remains the backbone of global
electricity generation
12 000
TWh
China
10 000 India
Other non-OECD
8 000
OECD
6 000
4 000
2 000
A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially
China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current capacity of the US, EU & Japan
OECD/IEA 2010
Renewables enter the mainstream.
India
Brazil
China
United States
European Union
The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector
where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035
OECD/IEA 2010
.but only if there is enough
government support
Annual global support for renewables in the New Policies Scenario
210
n dollars (2009)
Biofuels
180
Renewables-based electricity
150
120
Billion
90
60
30
0
2007 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Government support remains the key driver rising from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion
in 2035 but higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs also spur growth
OECD/IEA 2010
China becomes the market leader
in low
low--carbon technologies
30%
Capacity additions
105 GW
Passenger car sales
335 GW
20%
8.5 million
85 GW vehicles
h l
10%
0%
Solar PV Wind Nuclear Electric &
plug-in hybrids
Given the sheer scale of Chinas market, its push to expand the role of low-carbon energy
technologies is poised to play a key role in driving down costs, to the benefit of all countries
OECD/IEA 2010
Caspian energy riches could enhance
global energy security
Caspian oil & gas outlook in the New Policies Scenario
6 350
bcm
mb/d
5 300
250
4
200
3
150
2
100
1
50
0 0
2000 2009 2020 2035 2000 2009 2020 2035
Oil net exports Inland oil consumption Gas net exports Inland gas consumption
OECD/IEA 2010
The 450 Scenario:
How do we get there now?
38
Gt
In the 450 Scenario, China & the US together account for 50% of the cumulative emission
abatement that is needed in 2010-2035
OECD/IEA 2010
Achieving the 2
2C goal will require rapid
decarbonisation of global energy
6%
5%
A four-fold
4% increase needed
3%
2%
1%
0%
1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035
Carbon intensity would have to fall at twice the rate of 1990-2008 in the period 2008-2020
& almost four times faster in 2020-2035
OECD/IEA 2010
A fundamental change is needed
in power generation
100%
Low-carbon generation in the NPS
80% Additional low-carbon generation
in the 450 Scenario
60% Fossil-fuel fired g
generation
in the 450 Scenario
40%
20%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Low-carbon technologies account for over three-quarters of global power generation by 2035
in the 450 Scenario, a four-fold increase on today
OECD/IEA 2010
and also in transport
Gramm
40 400 (right axis)
30 300
20 200
10 100
0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles reach 39% of new sales by 2035, making a big contribution
to emissions abatement, thanks to a major decarbonisation of the power sector
OECD/IEA 2010
Will peak oil be a guest or the spectre
at the feast?
100 16
mb/d
mb/d
World demand in
96 12 450 Scenario
92 8
Right axis:
88 4
Inter regional
Inter-regional
84 0 (bunkers)
Other non-OECD
80 -4
India
76 -8 China
72 -12 OECD
68 -16
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil demand peaks at 88 mb/d before 2020 & falls to 81 mb/d in 2035, with a plunge
in OECD demand more than offsetting continuing growth in non-OECD demand
OECD/IEA 2010
Combating climate change will bring
economic benefits as well as costs
5% 2009
2035: New Policies Scenario
4% 2035: 450 Scenario
3%
2%
1%
0%
European United Japan China India
Union States
In the 450 Scenario, annual spending on oil imports in 2035 by the five largest importers
is around $560 billion, or one-third, lower than in the New Policies Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
Summary & conclusions
OECD/IEA 2010