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TABLE OF CONTENTS 2
1. Executive Summary
3. Detailed methodology
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Who we are 3
Who we are
2021 Member States
New member
EHB Mission
– Accelerate decarbonisation
of the European energy
system
– Define the critical role of
hydrogen infrastructure
– Support development
of a competitive and liquid
European hydrogen market
– Foster cross-border
collaboration between
Europe and its neighbors
CMYK PA N TO N E
10 0 / 75 / 2 0 / 10 2 81 C
CMYK PA N TO N E
6 0 / 0 / 10 0 / 0 369 C
CMYK PA N TO N E
12 / 0 / 10 / 5 0 4 31 C
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Europe has defined a bolder and more ambitious 2030 Hydrogen Targets
hydrogen target of 20 MT by 2030 in response to the MT of hydrogen
RePowerEU plan to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports (TWh in brackets)
well before 2030 20
(665 TWh)
This includes a 10 MT target of domestic EU hydrogen
supply, as well as a 10 MT target of hydrogen imports
from outside the EU.¹
These targets are strengthened by accelerated
national climate ambitions as well as the accelerated 10
(333 TWh)
development of the European hydrogen market.
EHB identified 12 MT of domestic supply, 2030 Target 2030 Hydrogen Supply ¹, ², ³, ⁴ 2030 Hydrogen Demand⁵
exceeding the RePowerEU domestic target MT of hydrogen
(TWh in brackets)
by 20% and supporting European energy
independence and security of supply. 20
(665 TWh)
EHB also identified 5.4 MT of supply from 5.4
non-EU neighboring countries, for a total of (180 TWh)
17.4 MT of supply. Green imports
2.5
Accelerated demand
due to RePowerEU
(non-EHB)
1 EHB did not analyse ship imports of hydrogen or derivatives like ammonia and methanol. To meet the 20 MT target, an additional 2.6 MT of hydrogen or derivative imports would be needed.
2 The 5.4 MT of non-EU supply includes 2.5 MT (~80 TWh) of green hydrogen imports from non-EHB countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Ukraine), along with 2.1 MT of blue hydrogen and 0.8 MT of grid-based hydrogen from EHB, non-EU countries
(the UK and Norway). Blue hydrogen potential, and its economic viability, is subject to the evolution of gas markets, regulations and the uncertainty of natural gas prices.
3 Estimates of national green hydrogen supply for European countries are based on projections of renewable energy scaling up above and beyond supply levels needed to meet electricity demand.
4 Other imports may include pipeline or ship imports from other regions not analysed in this study.
5 Demand includes all EU countries and the UK and Norway. Demand estimates do not include domestic EU consumption of ammonia for shipping or other derivates. For comparison, RePowerEU considered 4 MT of demand for ammonia and other derivatives.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
demand.
Hydrogen pipeline infrastructure can bridge these 287
regional supply-demand differences across Europe in a 197
cost-effective manner. 82
The EHB vision delivers the infrastructure needed 2030 2040 179
438 113
to connect hydrogen supply and demand across 30 37
Europe. 273
2030 2040
129
84
216
2030 2040
1 Aggregated demand and supply are based on the 2030 figures determined in this study. Supply figures 77 102
include imports from North Africa and Ukraine. Note: Demand and supply figures may increase further in 26
response to more ambitious national policies and measures following the RePowerEU plan.
2 This analysis estimates ~490 TWh of demand and ~580 TWh of supply in 2030 and does not attempt to
determine how hydrogen supply and demand will balance out across Europe, nor which hydrogen supply 2030 2040
sources – or from which regions – will be used to meet demand.
3 Demand and supply figures may not align with figures presented in the rest of the report based on
aggregation of countries into regions and due to rounding.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Five supply corridors are key to the EHB vision and can deliver 7
D
access to abundant and low-cost hydrogen supply by 2030
Gdansk Vilnius
Rotterdam
Cork Warsaw
Bilbao
E
These five corridors span across both domestic and import Marseille Sofia
B
supply markets, consistent with the three import corridors
Rome
Porto
Barcelona
Valencia
the Mediterranean (Corridors A and B), via the North Sea Lisbon
Palermo
Almeria
Tarifa
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
CMYK PA N TO N E
10 0 / 75 / 2 0 / 10 2 81 C
CMYK PA N TO N E
6 0 / 0 / 10 0 / 0 369 C
CMYK PA N TO N E
12 / 0 / 10 / 5 0 4 31 C
Note: Since all corridors terminate in Germany, OGE and ONTRAS are presented in each corridor grouping.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Each corridor has a unique regional role in enabling the scale up of low-cost 9
Corridor A would transport Corridor B would Corridor C includes hydro Corridor D would transport Corridor E would connect
large quantities of cost- transport green hydrogen gen supply from ongoing green hydrogen supply high supply potential
competitive green hydro supply from the Iberian and planned offshore potential from onshore regions such as Romania,
gen potential from Tunisia peninsula and North wind, blue hydrogen and and offshore wind from Greece, and Ukraine¹
and Algeria through Italy to Africa, and gain access large-scale integrated countries surrounding the – leveraging vast land
central Europe leveraging to underground storage hydrogen projects in the Baltic Sea. availability and high-
existing gas infrastructure. sites in France to deliver North Sea. Corridor D would be built capacity factors for solar
Corridor A would decar stable hydrogen supply. Corridor C would meet around regional networks and wind.
bonise existing industries Corridor B would decar demand from industrial around industrial clusters, Corridor E would deliver
along the route in Italy bonise regional industry clusters and ports in the serving numerous new green hydrogen to off-takers
and Central Europe as and transport clusters in UK, the Netherlands, steel, e-fuel, fertilizer and in Central Europe and
well as in Germany. Portugal, Spain, France Belgium and Germany. green chemicals projects Germany.
and Germany. in the Nordics as well
as decarbonizing existing
industry in the Nordics,
Baltics, Poland and Germany
along the corridor route.
1 While Ukraine is expected to be a hydrogen exporting region, there is significant uncertainty related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure and economic development.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
D
of a pan-European hydrogen market by 2030
Gdansk Vilnius
Hamburg
Manchester
– Accelerate the deployment and integration of renewable Dublin
Berlin
London Leipzig
Cologne
– Support scale-up of green, innovative European industries Frankfurt Prague Krakow
Paris Munich
Vienna Bratislava
Budapest
E
Marseille Sofia
B
Rome
Porto
Barcelona
Madrid
Valencia
Lisbon
A
Athens
Almeria
Tarifa
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Corridor A Fostering development of new and repurposed hydrogen infrastructure, for example, by unbundling rules
North Africa
& Southern Europe facilitating the efficient use of TSO expertise and services and by allowing the adoption of different vertical unbundling
models in the EU, as is the case with natural gas
Corridor D
Nordic and
Baltic regions
Unlock financing to fast-track hydrogen infrastructure deployment by applying regional regulatory flexibility and
other pragmatic financing solutions (including incentivizing the adoption of hydrogen by demand sectors)
Corridor B
Southwest Europe
& North Africa
Simplify and shorten planning and permitting procedures for the full value chain of renewable energies and
hydrogen infrastructure projects.
Facilitate integrated energy system planning of hydrogen, natural gas, and electricity infrastructure supporting
the accelerated deployment and integration of renewable energy resources
Corridor E
Corridor C East and South-East
North Sea Europe Intensify energy partnerships with exporting, non-EHB countries (e.g., with Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Ukraine)
providing financing support to reduce the cost of capital in export countries and identifying a common certification
system for hydrogen exchanges
We have identified a large We analysed and These five supply corridors To ensure the Ultimately, to realise
share of the demand and studied five large- have the potential to development of these the hydrogen pipeline
supply needed to meet scale, hydrogen supply provide Europe with supply corridors on time, infrastructure required by
the RePowerEU targets. corridors that will be access to abundant we have identified five 2030, action is needed
critical in transporting and low-cost hydrogen key concrete actions now.
the required amounts of supply by 2030.
hydrogen.
TABLE OF CONTENTS 14
1. Executive Summary
3. Detailed methodology
INTRODUCTION TO THE CORRIDORS © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
D
and their roles in enabling a pan-European backbone
Demand
Helsinki
C
Talinn
& Supply
development of hydrogen demand in this Göteborg
corridor? Riga
over time?
Gdansk Vilnius
Hamburg
2 Costs & Cost – How competitive will hydrogen from this corridor
Manchester
Dublin
Berlin
& Regulations
Ljubljana
Lyon
Milan
Venice
Bordeaux Bucharest
4 Actions
Bilbao
– What near-term regulatory and planning
E
Marseille Sofia
of this corridor?
Barcelona
Madrid
Valencia
Lisbon
Palermo
A
Athens
Almeria
Tarifa
INTRODUCTION TO THE CORRIDORS © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Inputs are defined primarily over the 2030-2050 – Uncertainty on near- and long-term European – This study does not incorporate detailed
timeframe, building on the most recently published natural gas prices and supply mix. infrastructure planning associated with the
EHB reports and maps: – Uncertainty related to Russia’s invasion repurposing of existing natural gas pipelines,
– Hydrogen demand forecasts by country, of Ukraine and its impact on Ukraine’s gas storage facilities, or gas import / export
sector and year. infrastructure, economic recovery and terminals.
– Realisable hydrogen supply potential by development of a hydrogen market. – This study does not account for ship imports
country and year; – Uncertainty regarding the development of of hydrogen or hydrogen-derivatives like
hydrogen pipeline infrastructure across ammonia and methanol into Europe.
– Existing gas pipeline infrastructure (onshore
and offshore) and storage facilities; Europe, which is subject to developments
in European and national energy policy,
– Hydrogen infrastructure development plans regulations and funding.
by country; and
– Uncertainty regarding future hydrogen demand
– Costs assumptions associated with green and and supply, which may accelerate and increase
blue hydrogen supply and pipeline repurposing. further as a result of additional regulatory measures
adopted in response to the RePowerEU plan.
Methodology Section: Refer to the Section 3: Methodology for a description of the general supply and demand approach, key inputs, data sources, calculations, etc.
INTRODUCTION TO THE CORRIDORS © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
In this study, when a corridor transit through a Total corridor length (km)² 10,000 28,000
given country, even if only partially, it becomes 13,500
part of the analysis of the corridor, including its
hydrogen demand, supply and transport infrastructure.
All five corridors of this study either: (1) transit
through some of the same countries, or (2)
terminate in the same country¹. 12,000
For example:
– Corridor B (Southwest Europe and North Africa) and 10,000
Corridor C (North Sea) both transit through sections
of the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany.
11,000
– Corridor D (Nordic and Baltic regions) and
Corridor E (East and South-East Europe) both transit
through section of Germany, Czechia and Poland.
This means that all corridors partially overlap with
other corridors. As a result, key metrics – like
corridor length, supply and demand – overlap
and are not mutually exclusive.
This is illustrated on the right for corridor lengths.
Corridor A Corridor B Corridor C Corridor D Corridor E 2030
1 Since the largest demand clusters in Europe are concentrated in and around Germany,
all five corridors terminate – and thus, overlap – in Germany
2 The basis for these determining corridor lengths is the most recent publication of the
EHB maps (April 2022). Note: Since all corridors partially overlap, summing all individual corridor lengths – without adjusting for overlaps – adds up to ~56,000km, which is two times the combined length of 28,000 km in 2030².
© 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
TABLE OF CONTENTS 18
1. Executive Summary
3. Detailed methodology
CORRIDOR A © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
North Africa 19
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR A / FACTSHEET Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
North Africa 20
Italy Drivers & Major driver of development is the need to meet hydrogen demand from
Switzerland industry, transport and power in Italy, Central Europe and Germany. Key
Opportunities
Slovenia opportunities include the high repurposing potential of gas pipelines from Italy
Hungary to Central Europe, and pipeline interconnections with Algeria and Tunisia.
Croatia H₂ supply potential¹ Emissions
Hydrogen Supply 2030 2040
Czechia (TWh/year) 340 TWh Reductions
Austria & Decarbonization
(MtCO₂/year vs. 2019; -55 Mt
Slovakia Potential % reduction) (6%)
97 TWh
Germany -160 Mt
2030 2040 (18%)
North Africa 21
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR SUMMARY Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
Drivers & – The major driver behind the development of this corridor is – A major opportunity of the corridor is the ability to repurpose a
the adoption of hydrogen associated with the decarbonisation large share of existing gas pipeline infrastructure across Italy,
Opportunities
of industry, transport and power in Italy, Central Europe and Austria, Slovakia, and Czechia. Another key opportunity is the potential
Germany. The speed of hydrogen adoption in these regions may repurposing of the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline connecting Tunisia
be even faster than anticipated driven by increasing CO₂ prices to Italy via Sicily, giving the corridor access to the abundant solar and
in the EU and the RePowerEU ambitions to replace natural gas wind resources of Northern Africa.
consumption. – Recently, RePowerEU identified the development of a new subsea
– In the near term, the corridor offers access to abundant low- pipeline connecting Spain and Italy, expected to be available for
cost, renewable production from Italy and Tunisia. In the hydrogen transport by 2030.
longer term, this corridor may also provide access to hydrogen – The corridor would be stood up by 2030, covering 11,000 km of
imports from Algeria (via Tunisia) and additional supply from large-scale hydrogen pipelines across all countries of the corridor, of
Central and South-Central Europe. which approximately 60% will be repurposed pipelines.
Hydrogen Demand – Total hydrogen demand in the corridor reaches ~140 TWh by – Hydrogen adoption across all countries of the corridors enables an
2030, increasing substantially to ~550 TWh by 2040. Up to emissions reduction of ~220 MtCO₂/yr. by 2050, equivalent to a
& Supply
Costs & Cost- – By 2030, the corridor provides access to hydrogen ranging in – Based on a case-study of hydrogen supply and transport from Tunisia
production costs from 2.1 to 3.8 €/kg. By 2040, as supply to Germany, the cost of delivered hydrogen – inclusive of transport
Competitiveness
options increase, technology costs decrease, and increased and storage costs – can be lowered to achieve cost levels
imports from North Africa become available, hydrogen comparable to production costs by 2040. Lowering delivery costs
production costs decrease to 1.4 to 2.8 €/kg. can be achieved through various cost levers including optimised
– Already by 2030, this corridor’s lowest-cost supply options are operation of the system and cost of capital reductions.
imports from North Africa.
National Strategies – Most countries have developed – or are in the process – In select countries, substantial funding has been allocated to
of developing – national strategies. Moving forward, the support the development of the hydrogen market including funding
& Regulation
development of hydrogen regulation in all countries will be key for gas network infrastructure.
in enabling investment in infrastructure.
Actions Needed To support the buildout of this corridor by 2030, clear and concrete – Simplify and shorten planning and permitting procedures for the
actions related to infrastructure planning, financing and development full value chain of renewable energies and hydrogen infrastructure
North Africa 24
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
Hydrogen supply
By 2030, the corridor enables access to low-cost supply from Italy and
Pipelines
Repurposed
Tunisia. By 2040, the corridor gains access to supply from Algeria (via
New
Import / Export
Tunisia), Central and South-Central Europe
Subsea
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal 60% (Repurposed pipelines) 40% (New pipelines) 11,000 km (2030)
Energy island for
H₂ production
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
2030 2040
Pipelines Pipelines
Repurposed Repurposed
New New
Import / Export Import / Export
Subsea Subsea
40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh 40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh
Efuels production Efuels production
Industrial energy Industrial energy
Industrial feedstock Industrial feedstock
Power Power
Storages Storages
Salt cavern Salt cavern
Aquifer Aquifer
Depleted field Depleted field
Rock cavern Rock cavern
1 Switzerland is not included in the demand figures because as a non-EU member, Switzerland is not included in the datasets used to estimate hydrogen demand in 2030, 2040 and 2050.
Note: Does not include grey hydrogen demand. Numbers represent total demand by country, even if only parts of the country are included in the corridor.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
Emissions reductions
(vs. 2019 emissions¹) -6 % -18% -25 % Hydrogen adoption across all demand
sectors enables an emission reduction of
~220 MtCO₂/yr. by 2050, equivalent to a
Decarbonisation
in Mt CO₂ / year
25% reduction².
240 – Up to 2030, the decarbonisation of
221 industry – largely the steel sector and
220
refining – contributes 75% of the total
200 emissions reductions.
180 – By 2040, emissions reductions from power
159 generation and transport (road, shipping and
160
aviation) increase substantially and combined
140 account for 50% of emissions reductions.
120 – By 2050, most incremental emissions re
ductions are associated with hydrogen
60 54
40
20 Industry
Power
Buildings
0 Transport 1 CO₂-Emissions from countries and sectors included in corridor (0.89 bn t CO₂ / year),
Source: EEA
2030 2040 2050 2 Emissions reductions are calculated compared to the baseline fossil fuel used in each
sectors. For example, emissions reductions associated with the adoption of hydrogen by the
primary steel sector are relative to the use of coal. Similarly, emissions reductions , for e-fuels
© 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone, all rights reserved production are relative to the use of fossil fuels in domestic transport, shipping and other uses.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
2030* 2040*
Pipelines
Repurposed
New
Import / Export
Subsea Pipelines
Repurposed
Supply in MWh/km² New
<1 Import / Export
0 4 4
remaining share is grid-based hydrogen.
Hungary -4 -5 7
0.4 10 1 31 1 – By 2050, hydrogen supply increases
further to ~730 TWh. Dedicated green
Czechia -4 -17 -27
0.1 0.1 0.1 supply continues to account for the largest
share at roughly 95%.
State of – North Africa connects to Italy via Tunisia with one interconnector: the Hydrogen supply potential (TWh)¹
Enrico Mattei – Transmed pipeline via Sicily (525km, 30 bcm/year)
Gas Infra- – Two existing Algerian LNG export terminals: Arzew/Bethouia
(20.8 mln tonne per year) and Skikda (7.7mln tonnes per year)
structure – Hydrogen export potential via this corridor focuses primarily on hydrogen Tunisia + Algeria
supply from Tunisia and Algeria via the Transmed pipeline. 375
1 Supply figures estimated based on hydrogen supply potential combined for Tunisia and Algeria. Export potential is dependent on development of
demand and infrastructure. Note: The high potential import from Algeria and Tunisia depends on development of both demand and infrastructure
CORRIDOR A © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
North Africa 32
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
Hydrogen production cost Hydrogen delivered costs Comparison with fossil alternatives
Key Questions What is the range of production costs Based on a case-study of hydrogen supply How competitive is hydrogen supply
Answered achieved by the corridor in 2030 and from Tunisia to Germany: from this corridor compared to fossil fuel
2040? – What are the full costs of firm hydrogen alternatives?
delivery after accounting for transport
and storage costs?
– What cost levers are available to lower the
cost of hydrogen delivery?
35
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / CASE STUDY
36
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS
37
Material
leading to production costs ranging from 1.4 to 2.8 €/kg costs, can be kept low by applying cost reduction levers alternatives by 2030, and materially lower by 2040
costs are added to the cost of hydrogen production from Tunisia. Repurposed By 2040, the low range of
a
ly
va aly
aly
tia
an
an
an
an
ric
ar
oa
m
Af
er
er
er
Hu
th
Subsea
G
G
or
ia
kia
42 €/MWh
an
ric
str
1.4
Au
42
Slo
2.4 €/kg
G
(32% lower).
1.0
ly,
4.0
N
Ita
3.8
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2030
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included.
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates.
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted for grid-connection costs.
Key Findings – By 2030, the corridor provides access – Several cost reduction levers can be – Hydrogen costs are competitive with
& Results to hydrogen production costs of 2.1 to applied to lower the costs of hydrogen fossil fuel alternatives by 2030, and
3.8 € / kg. delivery. lower by 2040.
– By 2040, hydrogen production costs – For the Tunisia-to-Germany case study, – Fossil fuel costs are subject to significant
decrease to the range of 1.4 to 2.8 € / kg. these levers achieve delivery costs that uncertainty.
are low and cost-competitive.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
ia
kia
an
ric
str
va
m
Af
Au
Slo
er
th
G
or
ly,
4.0
N
Ita
3.8
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.1
1.5
0.5
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2030
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included.
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates.
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted for grid-connection costs.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
a
ly
va taly
tia
an
an
an
an
tal
ric
ar
It a
oa
ng
I
,I
m
m
Af
Cr
kia
er
er
er
er
Hu
th
G
or
3.0
Slo
N
2.8
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.5
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 2040
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
2 To assess the full cost of firm delivery to Germany, transport and storage
costs are added to the cost of hydrogen production from Tunisia.
Pipelines
Repurposed
New
Import / Export
Subsea
+ + =
Production Transport Storage Delivered
Costs Costs Costs Costs
2030 2040
By 2030, the low range of hydrogen
Production Cost of fossil Production Cost of fossil production costs are competitive
costs fuel alternatives costs fuel alternatives
with natural gas and coal, and
€/MWh 114 (=3.8 €/kg) 89‒115 €/MWh lower than oil alternatives.
Fuel cost
By 2040, the low range of
uncertainty 83‒95 hydrogen costs are materially
85‒88 lower than all fossil alternatives,
84 (=2.8 €/kg)
North Africa 38
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
NATIONAL STRATEGIES & REGULATIONS Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
Switzerland – The parliament currently developing national strategy – N/A – Hydrogen strategy is being developed
– Explicitly mentioned import strategy for H₂ – Energy plan: Industry & heavy duty transport
Slovenia – In NECP is set indicative target to have 10 % of renewable methane or – TSO is obliged to prepare the plan for acceptance of H₂ – Foreseen demand sectors: Transport (2030), followed by
hydrogen in the network (2030) industry & buildings (NECP)
Croatia – Foresees demand in industry, buildings, transport and power, with a supply – N/A – First production site by 2025
potential of 1.3 GW electrolysers
Hungary – Production of 36k tons/a (incl. low carbon H₂) – Min. 2% volume blending to natural gas grid – H₂ infrastructure in focus. Funding for storage is available
– 240 MW of electrolyser capacity 0.1 and blending to natural gas grid is envisioned
– Use to decarbonize industry and transport
Czech Republic – Focus Transport, then energy & chemical industry – N/A – H₂-Readiness of gas transmission system is urged, due to
– Green H₂ production potential focal role in H₂ transport (south to north and east to
– Import and transit country for H₂ west)
Slovakia – H₂ used in the chemicals, petrochemicals, steel and heating industries as well – N/A – Use H₂ in industries/areas impossible or not cost-effective to
as in transport directly use electricity
Germany – National production & import focus due to supply gap – H₂ network potentially opt-in regulated and vertically unbundled – Strong focus on international cooperation to ensure
– In place since 2020, currently reviewed towards increasing its ambition – First rules and standards for high pressure pipelines are 9 sufficient supply
– 10 GW (2030) electrolyser in coalition plans formulated – National funding
Note: Sequencing of countries follows the general corridor direction but does not represent the hydrogen flows.
1 Cumulative public funding amount by the respective state until 2030 General funding Network
2 Strategies and funding is under evaluation of meeting latest targets Supply Demand
CORRIDOR A © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
North Africa 40
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
2040
The need for this corridor
– The development of this corridor ensures access to abundant, low-cost
hydrogen supply from Italy and Tunisia by 2030, and by 2040 additional
supply from Algeria (via Tunisia) and from Central and South-Central Europe. Pipelines
Repurposed
New
– The decarbonisation of the largest hydrogen demand centers along Import / Export
Subsea
this corridor – in Italy, Central Europe and Germany – is dependent on Demand per sector
the buildout of this corridor by 2030, and its expansion towards 2040.
40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal
Energy island for
H₂ production
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor A / North Africa & Southern Europe
Fostering development Unlock financing to Simplify and shorten Intensify energy partner Facilitate integrated
of new and repurposed fast-track hydrogen planning and permitting ships with exporting, energy system planning
hydrogen infrastructure, infrastructure deploy procedures for renewable non-EHB countries of hydrogen, natural
for example, by unbund ment by applying regional energy and hydrogen like Algeria and Tunisia, gas, and electricity
ling rules facilitating the regulatory flexibility and infrastructure projects. and providing financing infrastructure supporting
efficient use of TSO other pragmatic financing support to reduce their the accelerated deploy
expertise and services and solutions (including cost of capital ment and integration
by allowing the adoption incentivizing the adoption of renewable energy
of different vertical un of hydrogen by demand resources
bundling models in the sectors)
EU, as is the case with
natural gas
TABLE OF CONTENTS 43
1. Executive Summary
3. Detailed methodology
CORRIDOR B © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Southwest Europe 44
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR B / FACTSHEET Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
Southwest Europe 45
Portugal Drivers & Major driver of development is the need to meet hydrogen demand from
Spain industry, transport and power in the Iberian peninsula, France and Germany.
Opportunities Key opportunities include the development of a new Spain-France interconnector
France
Belgium and underground storage in France, and access to imports from Morocco.
Luxembourg H₂ supply potential¹ Emissions
Hydrogen Supply 2030 2040
Germany (TWh/year) 569 TWh Reductions
& Decarbonization
(MtCO₂/year vs. 2019; -73 Mt
Potential % reduction) (7%)
164 TWh
-211 Mt
2030 2040 (21%)
Southwest Europe 46
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR SUMMARY Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
Drivers & – The major driver behind the development of this corridor is the – A major opportunity of the corridor is the potential development of a
adoption of hydrogen associated with the early decarbonisation new interconnection between Spain and France through the East
Opportunities
of the industry, transport and power in the Iberian Peninsula, Pyrenees. The development of this interconnection would allow both
France and Germany. The speed of hydrogen adoption in these countries to benefit from the complementary nature of low-cost, high-
regions will accelerate driven by increasing CO₂ prices in the EU volume Spanish and Portuguese hydrogen production and French
and the RePowerEU ambitions to replace natural gas consumption. underground storage sites to help provide stable supply for off-takers
– The corridor offers access to low-cost, renewable production in the region. This development of this new interconnection would in turn
from the Iberian peninsula, currently the source of Europe’s require infrastructure reinforcements along the corridor.
lowest renewable auction prices. In the longer term, this corridor – A key longer-term opportunity is the potential repurposing of the
may also provide access to hydrogen imports from Morocco currently-underutilised, Maghreb-Europe subsea interconnector
and potentially Algeria. to enable low-cost hydrogen supply from Morocco and Algeria.
– Recently, RePowerEU identified the development of a new subsea
pipeline connecting Spain and Italy, expected to be available for
hydrogen transport by 2030.
– The corridor would be stood up by 2030, covering 10,000 km of
Hydrogen – Total hydrogen demand in the corridor reaches 200 TWh by – Hydrogen adoption across all countries of the corridors enables an
2030, increasing substantially to ~720 TWh by 2040. Up to emissions reduction of c.300 MtCO₂/yr. by 2050, equivalent to a
Demand
2030, the major demand sector is industry, with hydrogen being 29% emissions reduction.
& Supply used as feedstock and for energy needs. From 2040 onwards, – The corridor enables access to hydrogen supply potential of ~160 TWh
most hydrogen demand is for e-fuels production and the power by 2030, increasing to ~570 TWh by 2040. Major sources of supply
sector. include green hydrogen from the Iberian Peninsula and France by 2030,
with a potential role for Moroccan imports by 2040.
CORRIDOR SUMMARY Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
Costs & Cost- – By 2030, the corridor provides access to hydrogen production – Based on a case-study of hydrogen supply and transport from
costs ranging from a production cost of 2.0 to 3.8 €/kg. By Spain to Germany, the cost of delivered hydrogen – inclusive of
Competitiveness
2040, as supply options increase and technology costs decrease, transport and firming costs – can be lowered to achieve cost levels
hydrogen production costs decrease to 1.4 to 2.7 €/kg. comparable to production costs. Lowering delivery costs can be
– In the long term, this corridor’s lowest-cost supply options are achieved through various cost levers including optimised operation of
imports from Morocco and solar PV hydrogen from Spain and the system and cost of capital reductions.
Portugal.
National Strategies – National hydrogen strategies have been developed by all – In select countries, substantial funding has been allocated to
countries in the corridor, providing clear direction and supply support the development of the hydrogen market including funding
& Regulation
targets. for gas network infrastructure.
Actions Needed Low-cost H₂ supply/demand, but for realization and build-out of this – Simplify and shorten planning and permitting procedures for the
corridor until 2030, key needs for action has been identified: full value chain of renewable energies and hydrogen infrastructure
– Fostering development of new and repurposed hydrogen projects.
Southwest Europe 49
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
2030
Hydrogen Demand
By 2030, the corridor connects all major industrial clusters from Spain to
Corridor Snapshot (Supply, Germany. From 2030 to 2040, the corridor expands to all demand centers
Demand, and Infrastructure) along its route, increasing demand from 200 to ~720 TWh.
Hydrogen supply
By 2030, the corridor enables access to low-cost supply from parts of the
Pipelines
Repurposed
Iberian peninsula. By 2040, the corridor gains access to supply from most
New
Import / Export of the peninsula and low-cost imports from Morocco.
Subsea
Supply in MWh/km²
<1 Grid-based Dedicated green Blue
1 – 25
25 – 100
100 – 250
250 – 500
> 500
Hydrogen Infrastructure
Storages
Salt cavern
By 2030, the buildout of pipeline infrastructure across all countries of the
Aquifer
Depleted field
corridor reaches 10,000 km of large-scale pipelines. Corridor benefits from a
Rock cavern
large share of repurposed infrastructure.
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal 60% (Repurposed pipelines) 40% (New pipelines) 10,000 km (2030)
Energy island for
H₂ production
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
2030 2040
Pipelines Pipelines
Repurposed Repurposed
New New
Import / Export Import / Export
Subsea Subsea
40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh 40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh
Efuels production Efuels production
Industrial energy Industrial energy
Industrial feedstock Industrial feedstock
Power Power
Storages Storages
Salt cavern Salt cavern
Aquifer Aquifer
Depleted field Depleted field
Rock cavern Rock cavern
Note: Does not include grey hydrogen demand. Numbers represent total demand by country, even if only parts of the country are included in the corridor.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
Emissions reductions
(vs. 2019 emissions¹) 7 % 21% 29 % Hydrogen adoption across all demand
sectors enables an emissions reduction of
~300 MtCO₂/yr. by 2050, equivalent to a
Decarbonisation
in Mt CO₂ / year
29% reduction².
297
300 – Up to 2030, the industrial sector contributes
75% of the total emissions reductions, largely
driven by the decarbonisation of the steel
250 sector.
211 – By 2040, emissions reductions from transport
(road, shipping and aviation) increase
200
substantially and combined with industry,
account for 80% of emissions reductions. The
150
power sector account for the remaining 20%
of reductions.
50
Industry
Power
Buildings
0 Transport 1 CO₂-Emissions from countries and sectors included in corridor (1.02 bn t CO₂ / year),
Source: EEA
2030 2040 2050 2 Emissions reductions are calculated compared to the baseline fossil fuel used in each
sectors. For example, emissions reductions associated with the adoption of hydrogen by
the primary steel sector are relative to the use of coal. Similarly, emissions reductions , for
© 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone, all rights reserved e-fuels production are relative to the use of fossil fuels in shipping, aviation and other uses.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
2030* 2040*
Pipelines
Repurposed
New
Import / Export Pipelines
Subsea Repurposed
New
Supply in MWh/km² Import / Export
Spain 44 68 113
By 2040, hydrogen supply increases
substantially to ~570 TWh, of which roughly
General H₂ flow
66 8 213 11 359 15
85% is from dedicated green hydrogen. The
France 5 16 13 remaining 15% is from grid-based and blue
25 8 5 94 8 10 150 24
hydrogen supply. Grid-based supply increases
Belgium -4 -50 -98 slightly from 2030 due to the increasing
15 6 20 8 11 decarbonization of the electricity grid mix.
State of – North Africa connects to Spain through Morocco via the Maghred-Europe Hydrogen supply potential (TWh)
offshore pipeline, currently used for natural gas exports to Europe. Morocco’s
Gas Infra- national hydrogen roadmap identified the potential to repurpose the Morocco only
Maghreb-Europe pipeline for hydrogen export¹.
structure – Morocco is in currently in preparatory stages ahead of upgrades to its
existing port infrastructure for LNG imports. Morocco
– Hydrogen export potential via this corridor focuses primarily on hydrogen 115
supply from Morocco, however, there is also potential for hydrogen exports
from Algeria to contribute to this corridor.
Algeria
1 MEM – Green Hydrogen Roadmap (2021)
2 HEVO Ammonia (https://energy-utilities.com/fusion-fuel-and-ccc-to-develop-850m-morocco-green-news113290.html; and stakeholder interviews) Note: Note:
3 Due to political tension as a result of the Western Sahara sovereignty, Morocco halted the agreement in 2021, however, it is currently looking to Supply potential based on Reference scenario from National Green Hydrogen supply from Algeria has not been incorporate into the supply
restore ties as of 2022. Hydrogen Roadmap for Morocco¹ figures of this corridor. Rather, it is reported under Corridor A.
CORRIDOR B © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Southwest Europe 57
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
Hydrogen production cost Hydrogen delivered costs Comparison with fossil alternatives
Key Questions What hydrogen production costs does the What are the full costs of delivered How cost-competitive are hydrogen costs
Answered corridor provide access to by 2030 and by hydrogen accounting for transport and compare to fossil fuel alternatives?
2040? storage costs?
What cost levers are available to lower the
cost of delivery costs?
60
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / CASE STUDY
61
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS
62
Material
leading to production costs ranging from 1.4 to 2.7 €/kg Iberian peninsula to demand centers in France and Germany alternatives by 2030, and significantly lower by 2040
& gal
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– By 2040, the low range
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Fuel cost
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Fr
or
er
er
er
er
Fr
Po
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Subsea uncertainty 83‒95 of hydrogen costs are
M
3.5
Hydrogen Production Cost Range [2030]¹, ², ³ 85‒88
materially lower than all
Case study
3.0 fossil alternatives, while the
2.7
+ + = 59‒73 Delivered
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg) – 2030 Production Transport Storage Delivered
62‒69
66 (=2.7 €/kg)
62‒69 cost of H₂ medium-to-high range are cost
2.5 1.5 €/kg
Large uncertainty on
Costs Costs Costs Costs 62 €/MWh competitive.
2.0 blue hydrogen costs 4 60 (=2.0 €/kg) – Hydrogen delivered costs from
the Spain-Germany case study
3 Several cost reduction levers are applied to lower firm delivery costs, 45 €/MWh
lg ,
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Fr l
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an
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Sp
Sp
Sp
rtu
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are competitive to natural gas in
m
lg
Case study
a
Fr
Fr
Fr
42
Fr
Be
Po
Po
(=1.4 €/kg)
G
Delivered
0.0
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included. 4 Blue hydrogen costs are subject to significant uncertainty in natural gas prices. Our analysis adopts natural gas price levels based on market conditions
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates. before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While natural gas prices have skyrocketed since, there remains significant uncertainty on near- and medium-term
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted European price trends and supply options. As a result, our analysis adopts the IEA’s Outlook 2021 price forecast developed pre-invasion, with costs of 28 €/
for grid-connection costs. MWh in 2030 and 13 €/MWh in 2040.
Key Findings – Corridor provides access to hydrogen – Several cost reduction levers can be – Hydrogen costs are competitive with
& Results production costs of 2.0–3.8 €/kg by applied to lower the costs of hydrogen fossil fuel alternatives by 2030, and
2030 delivery. lower by 2040.
– The scale-up of hydrogen supply leads to – For the Spain-to-Germany case study, – Fossil fuel costs are subject to significant
reductions to 1.4–2.7 €/kg in 2040 these levers achieve delivery costs that uncertainty.
are low and cost-competitive.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg) – 2030
Large uncertainty on
blue hydrogen costs 4
lg ,
ium
Fr l
ce
ain
ain
ce
ce
ce
ium
ain
l
ga
ga
Be nce
an
an
an
an
an
Sp
Sp
Sp
rtu
rtu
m
lg
a
Fr
Fr
Fr
er
Fr
Be
Po
Po
G
4.0 3.8
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2030
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included. 4 Blue hydrogen costs are subject to significant uncertainty in natural gas prices. Our analysis adopts natural gas price levels based on market conditions
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates. before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While natural gas prices have skyrocketed since, there remains significant uncertainty on near- and medium-term
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted European price trends and supply options. As a result, our analysis adopts the IEA’s Outlook 2021 price forecast developed pre-invasion, with costs of 28 €/
for grid-connection costs. MWh in 2030 and 13 €/MWh in 2040.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
4
& gal
ain
G ain
ce
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lg ,
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G ain
ain
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co
ga
Be nce
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an
an
an
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an
an
an
oc
Sp
Sp
Sp
Sp
rtu
rtu
m
m
a
Fr
Fr
Fr
or
er
er
er
er
Fr
Po
Po
M
G
3.5
3.0 2.7
2.5
2.0
1.5
0.5
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 2040
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
+ + =
Production Transport Storage Delivered
Costs Costs Costs Costs
3 Several cost reduction levers are applied to lower firm delivery costs,
including optimised system operation, battery storage use, cost of capital
2030 2040
– By 2030, the low range of
Cost of H₂ Cost of fossil Cost of H₂ Cost of fossil hydrogen production costs are
production fuel alternatives production fuel alternatives
competitive with natural gas
€/MWh €/MWh and coal, and lower than oil
114 89‒115
(=3.8 €/kg)
alternatives.
Fuel cost – By 2040, the low range
uncertainty 83‒95 of hydrogen costs are
85‒88
materially lower than all
Case study
Delivered fossil alternatives, while the
59‒73
62‒69
66 (=2.7 €/kg)
62‒69 cost of H₂ medium-to-high range are cost
1.5 €/kg
62 €/MWh competitive.
60 (=2.0 €/kg) – Hydrogen delivered costs from
45 €/MWh the Spain-Germany case study
Case study 42 (=1.4 €/kg) are competitive to natural gas in
Delivered
Southwest Europe 63
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
NATIONAL STRATEGIES & REGULATION Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
All countries have developed national strategies and targets. Moving forward, 64
Portugal – 5% share of hydrogen at final energy consumption, 2 GW – Expected to come with EU regulations – Mixed focus on national consumption
electrolyser 2030 and export to central Europe
– 10 – 15% H₂ injection to gas grid by 2030 1.1 – Production for export with 1 GW in Sines
planned
Spain – Replacing 25% of industrial grey hydrogen – Expected to come with EU regulations – Decarbonisation of grey hydrogen use by
– Installation of 4 GW electrolyser capacity 1.6 industry
– Setting up H₂ refuelling stations across Spain – H₂ in heavy transport (fuelling stations)
France – Implementation of local hydrogen hubs pre 2030 – Hydrogen injections to gas grid are possible, – Strong investments in transport sector (heavy
– Focus on demand (e.g. heavy transport) and generation below threshold of technical restrictions duty) and hydrogen production for industry
7.2
(6.5 GW electrolyser in 2030) – Need to accelerate strategy and policy around
– No strategy on H₂ infrastructure yet exports and imports
Belgium – Focus: Industry, (freight) transport, electricity storage – 2026: 100-160 new km pipelines – The NHS sees Belgium as an import hub of
– 150 MW for electrolysis production by 2026 – Open access H₂ backbone by 2030 renewable molecules for Europe
0.1
– Import and transit of H₂ and its derivatives via existing connecting ports, industrial clusters, and – Strong focus on national and cross-country
Luxembourg – Focus on renewable hydrogen – Goal to regulate transmission, storage & – Strong need for imports, hence cross border
– Prioritized use in industry, sector coupling & transport distribution infrastructure in line with ambitions H₂ infrastructure & national networks to meet
– Dedicated H₂ network explicitly mentioned of the EU industry & transport demand
Germany – National production & import focus due to supply gap – H₂ network potentially opt-in regulated and – Strong focus on international cooperation to
– In place since 2020, currently reviewed towards vertically unbundled 9 ensure sufficient supply
increasing its ambition – First rules and standards for high pressure – National funding
– 10 GW (2030) electrolyser in coalition plans pipelines are formulated
Note: Sequencing of countries follows the general corridor direction but does not represent the hydrogen flows.
1 Cumulative public funding amount by the respective state until 2030 General funding Network
2 Strategies and funding is under evaluation of meeting latest targets Supply Demand
CORRIDOR B © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Southwest Europe 65
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
2040
The need for this corridor
– The development of this corridor ensures access to abundant, low-
cost hydrogen supply from Spain and Portugal by 2030, and by 2040
additional supply from Morocco and potentially Algeria. Pipelines
Repurposed
New
– The decarbonisation of the largest hydrogen demand centers along Import / Export
Subsea
this corridor – in Spain, France, and Germany – is dependent on the Demand per sector
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal
Energy island for
H₂ production
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor B / Southwest Europe & North Africa
Fostering development Unlock financing to Simplify and shorten Intensify energy Facilitate integrated
of new and repurposed fast-track hydrogen planning and permitting partnerships with energy system planning
hydrogen infrastructure, infrastructure procedures for renewable exporting, non-EHB of hydrogen, natural
for example, by deployment by applying energy and hydrogen countries like Morocco, gas, and electricity
unbundling rules regional regulatory infrastructure projects. and other countries infrastructure supporting
facilitating the efficient flexibility and other in North Africa, and the accelerated
use of TSO expertise and pragmatic financing providing financing deployment and
services and by allowing solutions (including support to reduce their integration of renewable
the adoption of different incentivizing the adoption cost of capital energy resources
vertical unbundling models of hydrogen by demand
in the EU, as is the case sectors)
with natural gas
TABLE OF CONTENTS 68
1. Executive Summary
3. Detailed methodology
CORRIDOR C © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
North 69
Sea
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR C / FACTSHEET Corridor C / North Sea
North 70
Norway Drivers & Major driver of development is the need to meet demand from large industrial &
Ireland transport clusters in the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany. Key opportu-
Opportunities
Netherlands nities include the repurposing potential of onshore/offshore infrastructure, integra-
Denmark tion of North Sea wind resources and the portfolio of planned import terminals
United Kingdom
Hydrogen Supply H₂ supply potential¹ Emissions 2030 2040
Luxembourg 852 TWh
(TWh/year) Reductions
Belgium & Decarbonization
(MtCO₂/year vs. 2019; -94 Mt
France Potential % reduction) (8%)
249 TWh
Germany
-254 Mt
2030 2040 (21%)
1 Figures reported reflect outputs for all countries included in the corridor. Even if a country is only partially in the corridor, results for the full country are included
(e.g., supply potential and costs, demand, transmission network length).
2 Savings are based on the corridor’s case study of hydrogen delivered in 2030 and 2040. The cost of natural gas includes CO₂ prices. Refer to Subsection 3 (Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness)
CORRIDOR C © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
North 71
Sea
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR SUMMARY Corridor C / North Sea
Corridor offers access to low-cost, North Sea blue & green hydrogen 72
Drivers & – The major driver behind the development of this corridor – A major opportunity for this corridor relates to the large portfolio
is hydrogen adoption associated with the decarbonisation of ongoing and planned hydrogen infrastructure projects in the
Opportunities
of industry, transport and power in the UK and northwestern region – including large-scale offshore wind developments, large-
Europe. The speed of hydrogen adoption in these regions may scale integrated hydrogen projects, and a growing list of planned
be even faster than anticipated driven by increasing CO₂ prices import terminals for hydrogen and hydrogen-derivatives – in the
in the EU and the RePowerEU ambitions to replace natural gas Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France.
consumption. – This corridor emerges as a highly-integrated supply corridor that
– In the near term, the corridor offers access to abundant, low- can leverage extensive offshore gas infrastructure in the North
cost blue hydrogen supply from the North Sea. In the longer Sea, planned national and regional hydrogen backbones in the
term, this corridor also provide access to significant green Netherlands (by 2027), and in Belgium and Germany by 2030 –
hydrogen potential leveraging strong onshore and offshore connecting all major demand clusters in north-western Europe – as well
wind resources in the North Sea, offering an opportunity to as potential hydrogen storage at salt cavern locations northwest Europe.
integrate even higher capacities of offshore wind. – The corridor would be stood up by 2030, covering 12,000 km of
large-scale hydrogen pipelines across all countries of the corridor,
of which approximately 70% will be repurposed pipelines. The
Hydrogen Demand – Total hydrogen demand in the corridor reaches ~260 TWh by – Hydrogen adoption across all countries of the corridors enables an
2030, increasing substantially to ~900 TWh by 2040. Up to 2030, emissions reduction of ~360 MtCO₂/yr. by 2050, equivalent to a
& Supply
most hydrogen demand is driven by large industrial clusters in the 29% emissions reduction.
UK and northwestern Europe. Hydrogen use in the transport sector – The corridor enables access to hydrogen supply potential of ~250 TWh
also contributes a significant share of hydrogen demand. From 2040 by 2030, increasing to roughly 850 TWh by 2040. Major sources of
to 2050, hydrogen demand increases substantially in the transport supply include North Sea blue hydrogen potential in 2030, expanding to
and power sectors and continues to ramp up in industry. green hydrogen from onshore and offshore wind resources in the North Sea.
CORRIDOR SUMMARY Corridor C / North Sea
Costs & Cost- – By 2030, the corridor provides access to hydrogen ranging – Based on a case-study of green hydrogen supply and transport from
in production cost from 1.6 to 3.5 €/kg. By 2040, as supply the North Sea to North Rhine Westphalia (Germany), the cost of
Competitiveness
options increase and technology costs decrease, hydrogen delivered hydrogen – inclusive of transport and firming costs – can
production costs decrease to 1.5 to 2.6 €/kg. be lowered to achieve cost levels comparable to production
– In the long term, this corridor’s lowest-cost hydrogen supply costs both in 2030 and 2040. Lowering delivery costs can be
options are onshore and offshore wind resources from the achieved through various cost levers including optimized operation
North Sea. of the system and cost of capital reductions.
National Strategies – Most countries have developed – or are in the process of – In select countries, substantial funding has been allocated to
developing – national strategies. Further, in most high-demand support the development of the hydrogen market including funding
& Regulation
countries, hydrogen regulation is also already in place, if not for gas network infrastructure.
currently under development. The development of hydrogen
regulation in all other countries will accelerate investment in
infrastructure.
North 74
Sea
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor C / North Sea
Hydrogen supply¹
By 2030, the corridor enables access to low-cost, blue hydrogen supply
Pipelines from the North Sea. By 2040, the corridor diversifies its supply with green
Repurposed
New hydrogen from offshore wind resources in the North Sea.
Import / Export
Subsea
In 2030, hydrogen supply is ~250 TWh, of which over 40% is blue hydrogen.
Demand per sector
Hydrogen supply increases significantly by 2040, reaching 850 TWh.
40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh
Efuels production 249 TWh (2030)
Industrial energy
Industrial feedstock
Hydrogen Infrastructure
1 – 25
25 – 100
100 – 250
250 – 500
> 500 By 2030, the buildout of pipeline infrastructure across all countries of the
Storages corridor reaches 12,000 km of large-scale pipelines. Corridor benefits from
Salt cavern
Aquifer a very large share of repurposed infrastructure.
Depleted field
Rock cavern
Other items 70% (Repurposed pipelines) 30% (New pipelines) 12,000 km (2030)
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal
Energy island for
H₂ production 1 Ship imports of hydrogen and hydrogen-derivatives are not included.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor C / North Sea
2030 2040
Pipelines Pipelines
Repurposed Repurposed
New New
Import / Export Import / Export
Subsea Subsea
40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh 40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh
Efuels production Efuels production
Industrial energy Industrial energy
Industrial feedstock Industrial feedstock
Power Power
Storages Storages
Salt cavern Salt cavern
Aquifer Aquifer
Depleted field Depleted field
Rock cavern Rock cavern
Note: Does not include grey hydrogen demand. Numbers represent total demand by country, even if only parts of the country are included in the corridor.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor C / North Sea
Emissions reductions
(vs. 2019 emissions¹) -8 % -21% -29 % Hydrogen adoption across all demand
sectors enables an emissions reduction of
~360 MtCO₂/yr. by 2050, equivalent to a
Decarbonisation
in Mt CO₂ / year
29% reduction².
400 – Up to 2030, the industrial sector contributes
357 just under 70% of the total emissions reductions,
350 largely driven by the decarbonisation of the
steel sector. Notably, roughly 20% of emissions
300
reductions are from the transport sector.
254
– By 2040, emissions reductions from trans
250 port (road, shipping and aviation) increase
substantially and combined with industry,
200
account for 80% of emissions reductions.
The power sector account for the remaining
50
Industry
Power
Buildings
0 Transport 1 CO₂-Emissions from countries and sectors included in corridor (1.24 bn t CO₂ / year),
Source: EEA
2030 2040 2050 2 Emissions reductions are calculated compared to the baseline fossil fuel used in each
sectors. For example, emissions reductions associated with the adoption of hydrogen by the
primary steel sector are relative to the use of coal. Similarly, emissions reductions , for e-fuels
© 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone, all rights reserved production are relative to the use of fossil fuels in domestic transport, shipping and other uses.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor C / North Sea
2030* 2040*
Pipelines
Repurposed
New
Import / Export
Subsea Pipelines
Repurposed
Supply in MWh/km² New
<1 Import / Export
Country 2030 2040 2050 Hydrogen supply includes a mix of supply options
including grid-based green hydrogen², dedi
Supply Net¹ Supply Net¹ Supply Net¹
cated green hydrogen, and blue hydrogen³.
Norway 39 134 88 – By 2030, hydrogen supply reaches
30 16 33 100 18 94 18
~250 TWh, roughly 40% blue hydrogen
Ireland
9
6
46
30
70
40 and 30% each for dedicated green and
grid-based hydrogen.
United Kingdom 12 33 50
30 10 160 30 14 279 18 – By 2040, hydrogen supply increases
Denmark 12 48 75 substantially to ~850 TWh, of which 70%
General H₂ flow
25 15 80 21 115 27
is from dedicated green hydrogen. Blue
Netherlands -6 -1 41 hydrogen accounts for just under 20%, while
23 9 8 73 23 11 179 15
grid-based hydrogen for the remaining 10%.
Luxembourg -1 -3 -7
0 0 0 – By 2050, hydrogen supply increases further
to ~1,190 TWh. Dedicated green supply
Rotterdam Hamburg
– In feasibility study, strategy ready – Ambitions to establish H₂ terminal
– Planning to import 0.3 – 0.4 mio. – Onsite H₂-project H₂Global
tons of hydrogen by 2030
Stade
Amsterdam – LNG-terminal underway
– During proof of concept, – Comes ready with fuel switch
strategy ready Netherlands option to H₂
– Planning to scale up imports to
1 mio. ton of hydrogen starting Wilhelmshaven
2030 Germany – Working on feasibility study,
strategy ready
Eemshaven / Groningen – LNG-terminal underway
– Planning to import H₂ with NORTH₂ – Planning to import and produce
Project with 410 MW electrolyser onsite
0.3 mio. tons by 2030
Brunsbuettel
– LNG-terminal underway
– Comes ready with fuel switch
Dunkerque Zeebrugge
– Ambitions to establish H₂ terminal – Large scale LNG-terminal present,
– Onsite H₂-strategy to decarbonise France Belgium ambitions to accommodate H₂
harbour with integrated heat, CCS and – Planning to import 0.5 mio tons of
hydrogen use for transport hydrogen by 2030
Note: Ship imports of hydrogen or hydrogen-derivatives are not included in the analysis of Corridor C.
Infrastructure shown for 2030.
Strategy ready indicates that the terminal announced to import H₂ Strategy ready Strategy in progress Strategy ambitions
CORRIDOR C © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
North 82
Sea
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor C / North Sea
Hydrogen production cost Hydrogen delivered costs Comparison with fossil alternatives
Key Questions What is the range of production costs Based on a case-study of hydrogen How competitive is hydrogen supply
Answered achieved by the corridor in 2030 and supply from the North Sea to Germany: from this corridor compared to fossil fuel
2040? – What are the full costs of firm hydrogen alternatives?
delivery after accounting for transport
and storage costs?
– What cost levers are available to lower
the cost of hydrogen delivery?
85
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / CASE STUDY
86
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS
87
Material
production costs decrease to a range from 1.5 to 2.6 €/kg can be kept low and comparable to hydrogen production costs alternatives by 2030, and lower by 2040.
d lg s,
gd m,
lan ,
105
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(=3.5 €/kg)
range of hydrogen costs are
ite Be land
ar
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er
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eth
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N
Pipelines
Hydrogen Production Cost Range [2030]¹, ², ³
ite
85‒88
Repurposed
fossil alternatives, while the
Un
Un
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg) Production Transport Storage Delivered
UK 63‒69 62‒69 competitive.
66 €/MWh
2.0 Large uncertainty on
Costs Costs Costs Costs – Hydrogen delivered costs from
blue hydrogen costs 4 54 €/MWh the North Sea-to-Germany case
1.5 study are competitive to natural
3 Several cost reduction levers are applied to lower firm delivery costs,
gd s,
lg ,
Case study
y
ium
nm y,
k
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ite er ce,
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ar
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or
or
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er
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N F
N
Un Neth
cost of H₂
0.0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 2030
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included. 4 Blue hydrogen costs are subject to significant uncertainty in natural gas prices. Our analysis adopts natural gas prices levels based on market conditions
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates. before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While natural gas prices have skyrocketed since, there remains significant uncertainty on near- and medium-term
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted European price trends and supply options. As a result, our analysis adopts the IEA’s Outlook 2021 price forecast developed pre-invasion, with costs of 28 €/
for grid-connection costs. MWh in 2030 and 13 €/MWh in 2040.
Key Findings – By 2030, the corridor provides access – Several cost reduction levers can be – Hydrogen costs are competitive with
& Results to hydrogen production costs of 1.6 to applied to lower the costs of hydrogen fossil fuel alternatives by 2030, and
3.5 €/kg. delivery. lower by 2040.
– By 2040, hydrogen production costs – For the North Sea-to-Germany case study, – Fossil fuel costs are subject to significant
decrease to the range of 1.5 to 2.6 €/kg. these levers achieve delivery costs that uncertainty.
are low and cost-competitive.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor C / North Sea
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
Large uncertainty on
blue hydrogen costs 4
ng s,
lg ,
y
nm y,
N d,
ng s,
ium
ite er ce,
ce
y
y
m
Be om
Ki nd
ar
ar
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lan
an
nm
nm
d lan
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d
m
d rla
or
or
or
Fr
Ire
er
ite he
De
De
N
N F
N
G
Un Net
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 2030
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included. 4 Blue hydrogen costs are subject to significant uncertainty in natural gas prices. Our analysis adopts natural gas prices levels based on market conditions
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates. before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While natural gas prices have skyrocketed since, there remains significant uncertainty on near- and medium-term
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted European price trends and supply options. As a result, our analysis adopts the IEA’s Outlook 2021 price forecast developed pre-invasion, with costs of 28 €/
for grid-connection costs. MWh in 2030 and 13 €/MWh in 2040.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor C / North Sea
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
lan ,
nm m,
d lg s,
gd m,
rla y,
Ire om
ce
y
ng d
s
om
he an
ite Be land
nd
ar
ar
an
an
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Ki nite
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an
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m
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or
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er
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N
eth
G
G
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d
3.0
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ite
Un
Un
2.6
lan ,
Ire way
d
2.5
or
N
2.0
1.5
1.5
0.5
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2040
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 This analysis assesses a case study of hydrogen supply from the North
Sea to North Rhine Westphalia (Germany) to explore how the costs of
Corridor Case
Study Route
firm hydrogen delivery costs can be lowered.
3 Several cost reduction levers are applied to lower firm delivery costs,
including optimised system operation, battery storage use, cost of capital
2030 2040
– By 2030, the low range of
Production Cost of fossil Production Cost of fossil hydrogen production costs
costs fuel alternatives costs fuel alternatives
are lower than all fossil
€/MWh €/MWh alternatives.
89‒115
– By 2040, the low-to-medium
105 (=3.5 €/kg)
Fuel cost range of hydrogen costs are
uncertainty
83‒95
Case study
materially lower than all
85‒88
Delivered fossil alternatives, while the
59‒73
78 (=2.6 €/kg) cost of H₂ medium-to-high range are cost
1.8 €/kg
63‒69 62‒69 competitive.
66 €/MWh
– Hydrogen delivered costs from
54 €/MWh the North Sea-to-Germany case
Case study study are competitive to natural
48 (=1.6 €/kg)
Delivered 45 (=1.5 €/kg)
gas in 2030 (12% higher) and
cost of H₂
North 88
Sea
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
NATIONAL STRATEGIES & REGULATIONS Corridor C / North Sea
Most countries have developed national strategies and targets. Moving forward, 89
Ireland – Government plans NHS in July, 2022 – N/A – Early stage policy developments only
United – 2030: 10 GW of low-carbon hydrogen production – Initial network regulatory and legal framework not expected – More clarity on H₂ funding & strategy for ind. cluster
Kingdom – Mix of green and blue hydrogen incl. funding before 2025 2.3 application & H₂ production
– Blending of 20% vol. to gas network foreseen – Policy decision on heat due in 2026
Denmark – Focus on green H₂ (4-6 GW) and Efuels, and export of Efuels and PtX – Proposition: Allow TSO & DSO to own and operate H₂ – Transport infrastructure is seen as key to enable role as PtX
technologies to demand hubs (DE, NL, etc.) infrastructure 0.2 producer and exporter
Netherlands – Focus: Production & network to supply industry – Unbundling of natural gas and H₂ grid operation and – Production and transport infrastructure
– Build dedicated national hydrogen grid production 1.5 – €750 m funding for national hydrogen transmission
– 3 – 4 GW electrolyser capacity in 2030 – Integrated network planning network.
Luxembourg – Focus on renewable hydrogen – Goal to regulate transmission and distribution infrastructure in – Strong need for imports, hence cross border H₂
– Prioritized use in industry, sector coupling & transport line with ambitions of the EU infrastructure & national networks to meet industry &
– Dedicated H₂ network explicitly mentioned transport demand
France – Implementation of local hydrogen hubs pre 2030 – Hydrogen injections to gas grid are possible, below threshold – Strong investments in transport sector (heavy duty) and
– Focus on demand (e.g. heavy transport) and generation (6.5 GW electrolyser of technical restrictions 7.2 hydrogen production for industry
in 2030) – Need to accelerate strategy and policy around exports and
– No strategy on H₂ infrastructure yet imports
Germany – National production & import focus due to supply gap – H₂ network potentially opt-in regulated and vertically – Strong focus on international cooperation to ensure
– In place since 2020, currently reviewed towards increasing its ambition unbundled 9 sufficient supply
– 10 GW (2030) electrolyser in coalition plans – First rules and standards for high pressure pipelines are – National funding
formulated
Note: Sequencing of countries follows the general corridor direction but does not represent the hydrogen flows.
1 Cumulative public funding amount by the respective state until 2030 General funding Network
2 Strategies and funding is under evaluation of meeting latest targets Supply Demand
CORRIDOR C © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
North 90
Sea
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor C / North Sea
2040
The need for this corridor
– The development of this corridor ensures access to abundant, low-
cost blue hydrogen supply from the North Sea by 2030, and by 2040
diversifying its supply with green hydrogen from offshore wind resources in Pipelines
Repurposed
the North Sea. New
Import / Export
Subsea
– The decarbonisation of the largest hydrogen demand centers along Demand per sector
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal
Energy island for
H₂ production
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor C / North Sea
TABLE OF CONTENTS 93
1. Executive Summary
3. Detailed methodology
CORRIDOR D © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Nordics 94
& Baltics
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR D / FACTSHEET Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
Nordics 95
Finland Drivers & Major drivers of development are early national decarbonisation targets of Nordic
Sweden countries and hydrogen adoption in heavy industry and transport. Key opportunities
Opportunities
Estonia include the early development of new H₂ infrastructure in the Bothnian Bay, and
Lithuania regional opportunities for offshore pipelines and salt cavern storage.
Latvia
Hydrogen Supply H₂ supply potential¹ Emissions 2030 2040
Denmark 501 TWh
(TWh/year) Reductions
Poland & Decarbonization
(MtCO₂/year vs. 2019; -91 Mt
Germany Potential 184 TWh % reduction) (12%)
Czechia
-228 Mt
2030 2040 (30%)
1 Figures reported reflect outputs for all countries included in the corridor. Even if a country is only partially in the corridor, results for the full country are included
(e.g., supply potential and costs, demand, transmission network length).
2 Savings are based on the corridor’s case study of hydrogen delivered in 2030 and 2040. The cost of natural gas includes CO₂ prices. Refer to Subsection 3 (Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness)
CORRIDOR D © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Nordics 96
& Baltics
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR SUMMARY Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
Drivers & – The major driver behind the development of this corridor is – A major opportunity of this corridor is the early and accelerated
the adoption of hydrogen associated with the decarbonisation development of new hydrogen infrastructure in the Bothnian
Opportunities
of industry, transport and power in the Nordics, the Baltics, Bay, one of the earliest, greenfield hydrogen infrastructure projects in
Poland and Germany. Initially, the development of the corridor Europe. The early buildout of hydrogen infrastructure also offers an
will be driven by new green steel and e-fuel projects and early opportunity to pilot and operationalise new regulatory, planning
national decarbonisation targets in Sweden and Finland. The and permitting processes aiming to accelerate and streamline the
speed of hydrogen adoption in these regions may be even faster rollout of hydrogen infrastructure.
than anticipated driven by increasing CO₂ prices in the EU and – Another set of opportunities includes the development of offshore
the RePowerEU ambitions to replace natural gas consumption. pipelines connecting Nordic offshore wind resources to demand
– In the near term, the corridor offers access to abundant low- centers in Germany and Central Europe, as well as the potential
cost, onshore wind and grid-based hydrogen supply from the development of salt cavern hydrogen storage.
Nordics. In the longer term, the corridor also provides access – The corridor would be stood up by 2030, covering 13,500 km of
to hydrogen supply from offshore wind in the Nordics and the large-scale hydrogen pipelines across all countries of the corridor,
Baltics. of which approximately 45% will be repurposed pipelines.
Costs & Cost- – By 2030, the corridor provides access to hydrogen ranging in – Based on a case-study of hydrogen supply and transport from the
production costs from 2.1 to 3.8 €/kg. By 2040, as supply Bothnia Bay region of Finland to Germany, the cost of delivered
Competitiveness
options increase and technology costs decrease, hydrogen hydrogen – inclusive of transport and storage costs – can be
production costs decrease to 1.5 to 2.7 €/kg. lowered significantly and be cost-competitive with fossil fuel
– In the long term, this corridor’s lowest-cost hydrogen supply alternatives. Lowering delivery costs can be achieved through
options are onshore and offshore wind from the Nordics. various cost levers including optimised operation of the system and
cost of capital reductions.
National Strategies – Most countries have developed – or are in the process – In select countries, substantial funding has been allocated to
of developing – national strategies. Moving forward, the support the development of the hydrogen market including funding
& Regulation
development of hydrogen regulation in all countries will be key for gas network infrastructure.
in enabling investment in infrastructure.
Actions Needed To support the buildout of this corridor by 2030, clear and concrete – Simplify and shorten planning and permitting procedures for the
actions related to infrastructure planning, financing and development full value chain of renewable energies and hydrogen infrastructure
Nordics 99
& Baltics
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
Hydrogen supply
By 2030, the corridor enables access to low-cost, hydrogen supply from
Pipelines
Repurposed
parts of the Nordics. By 2040, the corridor expands access to supply across
New
Import / Export
the Nordics and into the Baltics.
Subsea
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal 45% (Repurposed pipelines) 55% (New pipelines) 13,500 km (2030)
Energy island for
H₂ production
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
2030 2040
Pipelines Pipelines
Repurposed Repurposed
New New
Import / Export Import / Export
Subsea Subsea
40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh 40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh
Efuels production Efuels production
Industrial energy Industrial energy
Industrial feedstock Industrial feedstock
Power Power
Storages Storages
Salt cavern Salt cavern
Aquifer Aquifer
Depleted field Depleted field
Rock cavern Rock cavern
Note: Does not include grey hydrogen demand. Numbers represent total demand by country, even if only parts of the country are included in the corridor.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
Emissions reductions
(vs. 2019 emissions¹) -12 % -30% -39 % Hydrogen adoption across all demand
sectors enables an emissions reduction of
~290 MtCO₂/yr. by 2050, equivalent to a
Decarbonisation
in Mt CO₂ / year
39% reduction².
300 292 Emissions reductions are notoriously higher
than other corridors due to the high emissions
reduction potential in the steel sector.
250
228 – Up to 2030, the industrial sector contributes
70% of the total emissions reductions, largely
driven by the steel sector in Sweden and
200
Germany.
– By 2040, emissions reductions from trans
150 port (road, shipping and aviation) increase
substantially and combined with industry,
2030* 2040*
Pipelines
Repurposed
New
Import / Export
Subsea Pipelines
Repurposed
Supply in MWh/km² New
<1 Import / Export
Country 2030 2040 2050 The hydrogen supply mix includes grid-based
green hydrogen² and dedicated green
Supply Net¹ Supply Net¹ Supply Net¹
hydrogen.
Finland 36 40 73 – By 2030, hydrogen supply reaches
51 10 79 14 121 18
~185 TWh, largely from dedicated green
Sweden
52 12
14
107 18
24
143 23
42 hydrogen and grid-based hydrogen.
– By 2040, hydrogen supply increases
Estonia 1 18 33
1 0.1 19 0.1 35 0.1 substantially to ~500 TWh, of which roughly
85% is from dedicated green hydrogen.
Latvia -0.4 7 18
General H₂ flow
Dedicated green
1 Net represents excess supply after subtracting demand. Blue
2 Grid-based is estimated using national 2030 electrolyser targets which, by 2030, are assumed to be largely Grid-based
grid-connected rather than dedicated. Grid-based increases over 2030-2050 with increasing RES. 2050 technical potential Note: Hydrogen supply volumes do not include hydrogen imports by ship.
CORRIDOR D © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Nordics 106
& Baltics
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
This section explores the costs of hydrogen production and delivery 107
Hydrogen production cost Hydrogen delivered costs Comparison with fossil alternatives
Key Questions What is the range of production costs Based on a case-study of hydrogen supply How competitive is hydrogen supply
Answered achieved by the corridor in 2030 and from the Bothnian Bay (Finland) to Germany: from this corridor compared to fossil fuel
2040? – What are the full costs of firm hydrogen alternatives?
delivery after accounting for transport
and storage costs?
– What cost levers are available to lower the
cost of hydrogen delivery?
109
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / CASE STUDY
110
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS
111
Material
leading to production costs ranging from 1.5 to 2.7 €/kg can be kept low by applying cost reduction levers alternatives by 2030, and materially lower by 2040.
De de ,
nm n,
k
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lan
lan
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to
nm
nm
la
m
Po
e
Fin
Fin
Sw
Sw
Sw
er
er
er
er
Repurposed
De
De
Fuel cost
hydrogen costs are materially
G
3.0
New
uncertainty Case study
83‒95
Hydrogen Production Cost Range [2030]¹, ², ³ 2.7
Import / Export
85‒88 Delivered lower than all fossil alterna-
nia
Subsea
cost of H₂
ua
e ,
nm ,
k
en
en
Lith y
nia
d
Sw nd
De den
ar
ar
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Delivered
lan
lan
lan
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ed
ed
ua
nm
nm
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Fin
Fin
Po
45
including optimised system operation, battery storage use, cost of capital
Fin
(=1.5 €/kg)
Sw
Sw
er
cost of H₂
De
De
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2030
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included.
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates.
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted for grid-connection costs.
Key Findings – By 2030, the corridor provides access – Several cost reduction levers can be – Hydrogen costs are competitive with
& Results to hydrogen production costs of 2.1 to applied to lower the costs of hydrogen fossil fuel alternatives by 2030, and
3.8 €/kg. delivery. lower by 2040.
– By 2040, hydrogen production costs – For the Bothnian Bay-to-Germany case – Fossil fuel costs are subject to significant
decrease to the range of 1.5 to 2.7 €/kg. study, these levers achieve delivery uncertainty.
costs that are low and cost-competitive.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
k
ed ,
y
nm ,
k
en
en
ia
d
d
De en
Sw and
ar
ar
ar
an
lan
lan
lan
an
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ed
nm
nm
hu
Fin
Fin
Po
l
Fin
Sw
Sw
er
De
De
Lit
G
4.0 3.8
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.1
1.5
0.5
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2030
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included.
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates.
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted for grid-connection costs.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
k
y
De de ,
en
en
en
d
nm n,
Es nd,
nia
Sw land
ar
ar
ar
an
an
an
an
lan
lan
ed
ed
ed
to
nm
nm
la
m
m
Fin
Po
e
Fin
Fin
Sw
Sw
Sw
er
er
er
er
De
De
G
3.0
2.7
ia
an
hu
2.5
Lit
2.0
1.5
1.5
0.5
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 2040
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
+ + =
Production Transport Storage Delivered
Costs Costs Costs Costs
3 Several cost reduction levers are applied to lower firm delivery costs,
including optimised system operation, battery storage use, cost of capital
2030 2040
– By 2030, the low range of
Production Cost of fossil Production Cost of fossil hydrogen production costs are
costs fuel alternatives costs fuel alternatives
competitive with natural gas
€/MWh €/MWh and coal, and lower than oil
114 (=3.8 €/kg) 89‒115 alternatives.
– By 2040, the low range of
Fuel cost
uncertainty 83‒95
Case study hydrogen costs are materially
85‒88 Delivered lower than all fossil alterna-
cost of H₂
81 (=2.7 €/kg)
2.0 €/kg tives, while the medium-to-high
59‒73 63‒69
75 €/MWh 63‒69 range are cost competitive.
– Hydrogen delivered costs from
60 €/MWh
63 (=2.1 €/kg) the Bothnian Bay-to-Germany
Case study case study are competitive
Delivered
cost of H₂ 45 (=1.5 €/kg) to natural gas in 2030 (27%
Nordics 112
& Baltics
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
NATIONAL STRATEGIES & REGULATIONS Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
Most countries have developed, or are developing, national strategies. Moving 113
Sweden – Focus on industry & heavy-duty vehicles – National H₂ strategy requests regulator to have commissioned – •Funding is provided to various hydrogen projects for
– Electrolyser capacity 5 GW (2030) & 15 GW (2045) revenue framework by 2023 0.1 demand and supply by the Swedish Energy Agency
Estonia – Intention to create national hydrogen strategy – N/A – Potential for local production and export
Latvia – No specific national hydrogen strategy – N/A – Most potential is seen in transport sector
Lithuania – National hydrogen strategy is in progress – Legal framework allows issue guarantees of origin for – Potential for production, transit and export
hydrogen 0.16
Denmark – Focus on green H₂ and export of PtX technologies to demand hubs (GER, – Proposition: Allow TSO & DSO to own and operate H₂ – Transport infrastructure is seen as key to enable role as PtX
NL, etc.) infrastructure 0.2 producer and exporter
Germany – National production & import focus due to supply gap – H₂ network potentially opt-in regulated and vertically – Strong focus on international cooperation to ensure
– In place since 2020, currently reviewed towards increasing its ambition unbundled 9 sufficient supply
– 10 GW (2030) electrolyser in coalition plans – First rules and standards for high pressure pipelines are – National funding
formulated
Czech Republic – Focus Transport, then energy & chemical industry – N/A – H₂-Readiness of gas transmission system is urged, due to
– Production also CCS and nuclear potential role in H₂ transport from south to north and from
– Import and transit country for H₂ from the south east to west
Note: Sequencing of countries follows the general corridor direction but does not represent the hydrogen flows.
1 Cumulative public funding amount by the respective state until 2030 General funding Network
2 Strategies and funding is under evaluation of meeting latest targets Supply Demand
CORRIDOR D © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Nordics 114
& Baltics
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
2040
The need for this corridor
– The development of this corridor ensures access to abundant, low-cost
supply from parts of the Nordics by 2030, expanding to supply from the
Baltics by 2040. Pipelines
Repurposed
– The decarbonisation of the largest hydrogen demand centers along New
Import / Export
this corridor – in the Nordics, Baltics, Poland and Germany – is Subsea
dependent on the buildout of this corridor by 2030, and its expansion Demand per sector
– The buildout of this corridor by 2030 requires national governments to Supply in MWh/km²
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal
Energy island for
H₂ production
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor D / Nordics & Baltics
1. Executive Summary
3. Detailed methodology
CORRIDOR E © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
South-East Europe
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR E Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Greece Slovenia Austria Drivers & Major driver of development is the need to meet hydrogen demand from
Bulgaria Croatia Germany industry, transport and power across Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.
Opportunities
Romania Slovakia Poland Key opportunities include leveraging the abundant renewables potential in
Hungary Czechia Eastern Europe and gaining access to hydrogen imports from Ukraine
Hydrogen Supply H₂ supply potential¹ Emissions 2030 2040
(TWh/year) 346 TWh Reductions
& Decarbonization
(MtCO₂/year vs. 2019; -65 Mt
Potential % reduction) (7%)
50 TWh
-195 Mt
2030 2040 (21%)
(€/kg of H₂) 62
54
Competitiveness vs. 59
natural gas price
high/low,
South-East Europe
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
CORRIDOR SUMMARY Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Drivers & – The major driver behind the development of this corridor is the – A major opportunity of the corridor is to leverage the abundant
adoption of hydrogen associated with the decarbonisation of renewables potential in Eastern Europe with its vast land availability
Opportunities
industry, transport and power across Eastern and South-Eastern and high-capacity factors for solar and onshore wind, particularly in
Europe, particularly new green steel projects and existing industry relation to the high hydrogen export potential of Ukraine. Another
along the corridor through Greece, Romania, Hungary, Austria major opportunity relates to the potential for hydrogen storage
and Germany. The speed of hydrogen adoption in these regions provided by depleted fields along the corridor in Greece,
may be even faster than anticipated driven by increasing CO₂ Czechia, Austria and Germany.
prices in the EU and the RePowerEU ambitions to replace natural – The corridor would be stood up by 2030, covering 10,000 km of
gas consumption. large-scale hydrogen pipelines across all countries of the corridor, of
– In the near term, the corridor offers access to low-cost, which approximately 60% will be repurposed pipelines.
hydrogen supply from Eastern and South-Eastern
Europe – including hydrogen imports from Ukraine, Poland,
Greece, and Romania among the larger sources of supply. In the
longer term, this corridor gains further access to hydrogen supply
across the entire region.
Costs & Cost- – By 2030, the corridor provides access to hydrogen ranging in – Based on a case-study of hydrogen supply and transport from
production costs from 2.5 to 4.5 €/kg. By 2040, as supply South-Eastern Romania to Germany, the cost of delivered
Competitiveness
options increase, technology costs decrease, and imports from hydrogen – inclusive of transport and storage costs – can be
Ukraine scale up, hydrogen production costs decrease to 1.7 to lowered significantly and be cost-competitive with fossil fuel
3.1 €/kg. alternatives. Lowering delivery costs can be achieved through
– In the long term, this corridor’s largest amounts of low-cost supply various cost levers including optimised operation of the system and
options are hydrogen imports from Ukraine. cost of capital reductions.
National Strategies – Some countries have developed national strategies, while – In select countries, substantial funding has been allocated to
in others they are under development. Moving forward, the support the development of the hydrogen market including funding
& Regulation
development of hydrogen regulation in all countries will be key in for gas network infrastructure. However, most countries are yet to
enabling investment in infrastructure. define and earmarked funds.
Actions Needed To support the buildout of this corridor by 2030, clear and concrete – Simplify and shorten planning and permitting procedures for the
actions related to infrastructure planning, financing and development full value chain of renewable energies and hydrogen infrastructure
South-East Europe
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Hydrogen supply
By 2030, the corridor enables access to low-cost supply from parts of Eastern
Pipelines
Repurposed
and South-Eastern Europe and Ukraine. By 2040, the corridor gains additional
New
Import / Export
access expanding across the region.
Subsea
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal 60% (Repurposed pipelines) 40% (New pipelines) 10,000 km (2030)
Energy island for H₂
production
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
2030 2040
Pipelines Pipelines
Repurposed Repurposed
New New
Import / Export Import / Export
Subsea Subsea
40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh 40 / 30 / 20 / 10 / 1 TWh
Efuels production Efuels production
Industrial energy Industrial energy
Industrial feedstock Industrial feedstock
Power Power
Storages Storages
Salt cavern Salt cavern
Aquifer Aquifer
Depleted field Depleted field
Rock cavern Rock cavern
Bulgaria 5 17 23
Hydrogen demand may accelerate and
increase further than forecasted as a result
Romania 14 34 46 of additional regulatory measures adopted in
response to the RePowerEU plan.
Hungary 4 15 25
– Up to 2030, most hydrogen demand
General H₂ flow
Note: Does not include grey hydrogen demand. Numbers represent total demand by country, even if only parts of the country are included in the corridor.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Emissions reductions
(vs. 2019 emissions¹) -7 % -21% -28 % Hydrogen adoption across all demand sectors
enables an emissions reduction of ~260
MtCO₂/yr. by 2050, equivalent to a 28%
Decarbonisation
in Mt CO₂ / year
reduction².
258
260 – Up to 2030, the industrial sector contributes
85% of the total emissions reductions.
240
220
– By 2040, emissions reductions from transport
195
(road, shipping and aviation) increase
200
substantially and combined with industry,
180 account for 75% of emissions reductions. The
160
power sector account for the remaining 25%
of reductions.
140
– By 2050, most incremental emissions
120
reductions are associated with hydrogen
40
20 Industry
Power
Buildings
0 Transport 1 CO₂-Emissions from countries and sectors included in corridor (0.91 bn t CO₂ / year),
Source: EEA
2030 2040 2050 2 Emissions reductions are calculated compared to the baseline fossil fuel used in each
sectors. For example, emissions reductions associated with the adoption of hydrogen by
the primary steel sector are relative to the use of coal. Similarly, emissions reductions , for
© 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone, all rights reserved e-fuels production are relative to the use of fossil fuels in shipping, aviation and other uses.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Corridor enables access to supply from Eastern & South-Eastern Europe 128
2030* 2040*
Pipelines
Repurposed
New
Import / Export
Subsea Pipelines
Repurposed
Supply in MWh/km² New
<1 Import / Export
Country 2030 2040 2050 The hydrogen supply mix includes grid-based
green hydrogen² and dedicated green
Supply Net¹ Supply Net¹ Supply Net¹
hydrogen.
Imports
12 50 100 – By 2030, hydrogen supply reaches
(Ukraine) 12 50 100
0.4 10 1 31 1
remaining 15% is from grid-based hydrogen
Slovenia -1 -1 -3
0 4 4 supply.
Croatia -2 4 7 – By 2050, hydrogen supply increases
0.1 11 18
Dedicated green
1 Net represents excess supply after subtracting demand. Blue
2 Grid-based is estimated using national 2030 electrolyser targets which, by 2030, are assumed to be largely grid-connected rather than dedicated. Grid- Grid-based
based increases over 2030-2050 with increasing RES. 2050 technical potential Note: Hydrogen supply volumes do not include hydrogen imports by ship.
HYDROGEN DEMAND & SUPPLY Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
XXXXX
Ukraine may become a potential 130
Supply – Supply potential estimated based on Hydrogen Europe’s 2x40 GW Green Hydrogen supply potential (TWh)¹
Hydrogen Initiative report¹.
potential – This analysis assumes a delay compared to the 2x40 GW report – due to the
war in Ukraine – resulting in more moderate hydrogen export volumes².
100
South-East Europe
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / SECTION INTRODUCTION Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
This section explores the costs of hydrogen production and delivery 132
Hydrogen production cost Hydrogen delivered costs Comparison with fossil alternatives
Key Questions What is the range of production costs Based on a case-study of hydrogen supply How competitive is hydrogen supply
Answered achieved by the corridor in 2030 and from South-Eastern Romania to Germany: from this corridor compared to fossil fuel
2040? – What are the full costs of firm hydrogen alternatives?
delivery after accounting for transport
and storage costs?
– What cost levers are available to lower
the cost of hydrogen delivery?
134
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS / CASE STUDY
135
SUPPLY COSTS & COST COMPETITIVENESS
136
Material
production costs decrease to a range from 1.7 to 3.1 €/kg costs, can be kept low by applying cost reduction levers alternatives by 2030, and lower by 2040
ia
G d
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an
an
an
an
ar
ec
ec
ec
New
lan
lan
an
an
89‒115
range of hydrogen costs are
ra
ng
m
from Romania.
re
re
re
m
Import / Export
Po
Po
Uk
er
er
er
er
Hu
G
Ro
Ro
Subsea
G
ine
ce
ia
Ro kia
ia
an
1.5
an
an
str
1.7
va
ra
51
re
m
Slo
Uk
er
Ro
G
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included. 4 Blue hydrogen costs are subject to significant uncertainty in natural gas prices. Our analysis adopts natural gas price levels based on market conditions
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates. before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While natural gas prices have skyrocketed since, there remains significant uncertainty on near- and medium-term
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted European price trends and supply options. As a result, our analysis adopts the IEA’s Outlook 2021 price forecast developed pre-invasion, with costs of 28 €/
for grid-connection costs. MWh in 2030 and 13 €/MWh in 2040.
Key Findings – By 2030, the corridor provides access – Several cost reduction levers can be – Hydrogen costs are competitive with
& Results to hydrogen production costs of 2.5 to applied to lower the costs of hydrogen fossil fuel alternatives both in 2030 and
4.5 €/kg. delivery. 2040.
– By 2040, hydrogen production costs – For the Romania-to-Germany case study, – Fossil fuel costs are subject to significant
decrease to the range of 1.7 to 3.1 €/kg. these levers achieve delivery costs that uncertainty.
are low and cost-competitive.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
ia
ine
ce
ia
Ro ia
ia
an
an
an
str
ak
e
ra
m
re
ov
Au
m
Uk
er
G
Ro
Sl
G
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
1 Cost curves are based on a bottom-up estimate of supply volumes per country and hydrogen production type. No transport or storage / firming cost are included. 4 Blue hydrogen costs are subject to significant uncertainty in natural gas prices. Our analysis adopts natural gas price levels based on market conditions
2 Dedicated hydrogen production costs are based on renewable technology and electrolyser costs, and country-specific capacity factors and discount rates. before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While natural gas prices have skyrocketed since, there remains significant uncertainty on near- and medium-term
3 Grid-connected hydrogen production costs are determined based on costs of a mix of dedicated green hydrogen (solar, onshore wind, offshore wind) and adjusted European price trends and supply options. As a result, our analysis adopts the IEA’s Outlook 2021 price forecast developed pre-invasion, with costs of 28 €/
for grid-connection costs. MWh in 2030 and 13 €/MWh in 2040.
SUPPLY COSTS & COST-COMPETITIVENESS Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Levelised cost of hydrogen production (€/kg) and Supply per country (TWh) Cost range (€/kg)
ine
ia
G d
ce
ia
an
an
an
an
ar
ec
ec
lan
lan
an
an
e
ra
ng
m
m
m
re
re
re
m
Po
Po
Uk
er
er
er
er
Hu
G
Ro
Ro
G
G
G
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5 1.7
0.5
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2040
Imports Wind offshore Solar PV Case study (see next slide) High
Blue hydrogen Wind onshore Grid-connected Low
+ + =
Production Transport Storage Delivered
Costs Costs Costs Costs
(firming costs)
3 Several cost reduction levers are applied to lower firm delivery costs,
including optimised system operation, battery storage use, cost of capital
2030 2040
By 2030, the low range of hydrogen
Production Cost of fossil Production Cost of fossil production costs are competitive
costs fuel alternatives costs fuel alternatives
with natural gas and coal, and
€/MWh 135 (=4.5 €/kg)
€/MWh lower than oil alternatives.
By 2040, the low-to-medium
89‒115
range of hydrogen costs are
Fuel cost materially lower than all fossil
83‒95
uncertainty 93 (=3.1 €/kg)
85‒88
Case study alternatives, while the medium-to-
Delivered
cost of H₂ high range are cost competitive.
59‒73 1.8 €/kg
63‒69 75 €/MWh 62‒69 Hydrogen delivered costs from the
75 (=2.5 €/kg)
Romania-to-Germany case study are
Case study
54 €/MWh competitive to natural gas in 2030
Delivered 51 (=1.7 €/kg) (27% higher) and 2040 (13% lower).
cost of H₂
South-East Europe
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
NATIONAL STRATEGIES & REGULATION Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Bulgaria – No specific national hydrogen strategy, but consideration of role for – N/A – 20 MW H₂ refuelling stations are planned and a demand
hydrogen in NECP of 32 GWh in transport by 2030
Romania – Hydrogen strategy to be published in 2022 – N/A – Project with 2 x 20 MW electrolysers powered by solar-PV
parks is under development
Hungary – 240MW of electrolyser capacity – Min. 2% volume blending to natural gas grid – Low carbon and renewable H₂ planned
– Demand seen in industry and transport sector – €5.3 m for project to store H₂ underground
Slovenia – In NECP is set indicative target to have 10 % of renewable methane or – TSO is obliged to prepare the plan for acceptance of H₂ – Foreseen H₂ demand sectors: Transport (2030), buildings,
hydrogen in the network (2030) industry (NECP)
Croatia – Foresees demand in industry, buildings, transport and power, with a supply – N/A – First production site by 2025
potential of 1.3 GW electrolysers
Slovakia – H₂ used in the chemicals, petrochemicals, steel and heating industries as – N/A – Use H₂ in industries/areas impossible or not cost-effective to
well as in transport directly engage electricity
Note: Sequencing of countries follows the general corridor direction but does not represent the hydrogen flows.
1 Cumulative public funding amount by the respective state until 2030 General funding Network
2 Strategies and funding is under evaluation of meeting latest targets Supply Demand
CORRIDOR E © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
South-East Europe
Agenda
1. Corridor Summary
2. Hydrogen Demand & Supply
3. Supply Costs & Cost-Competitiveness
4. National Strategies & Regulation
5. Actions Needed
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
2040
The need for this corridor
– The development of this corridor ensures access to abundant, low-cost
hydrogen supply from parts of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe and
Ukraine by 2030, and by 2040 expanding access to additional supply Pipelines
Repurposed
from the region. New
Import / Export
Subsea
– The decarbonisation of the largest hydrogen demand centers along Demand per sector
this corridor by 2030, and its expansion towards 2040. Efuels production
Industrial energy
Industrial feedstock
Power
Other items
Existing or planned
gas-import-terminal
Energy island for
H₂ production
ACTIONS NEEDED Corridor E / East and South-East Europe
Fostering development Unlock financing to Simplify and shorten Intensify energy partner Facilitate integrated
of new and repurposed fast-track hydrogen planning and permitting ships with exporting, energy system planning
hydrogen infrastructure, infrastructure deploy procedures for renewable non-EHB countries like of hydrogen, natural
for example, by unbund ment by applying regional energy and hydrogen Ukraine, and providing gas, and electricity
ling rules facilitating the regulatory flexibility and infrastructure projects financing support to infrastructure supporting
efficient use of TSO other pragmatic financing reduce their cost of capital the accelerated deploy
expertise and services and solutions (including ment and integration
by allowing the adoption incentivizing the adoption of renewable energy
of different vertical of hydrogen by demand resources
unbundling models in the sectors)
EU, as is the case with
natural gas
1. Executive Summary
3. Detailed methodology
DETAILED METHODOLOGY / SECTION INTRODUCTION © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Objective Forecast and localise future hydrogen Forecast and localise future hydrogen Calculate the cost of delivered hydrogen
demand. supply and determine the emissions for different corridor case studies
reductions impact of hydrogen
adoption
Detailed approach:
HYDROGEN DEMAND
© 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
149Backbone,
© 2022 European Hydrogen
all rights reserved
HYDROGEN DECARBONIZATION & SUPPLY
Overall approach:
© 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
151
HYDROGEN COST-COMPETITIVENESS
Methodology:
© 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
155
Material
Demand Detailed
HYDROGENapproach:
forDEMAND
power generation
148Backbone,
© 2022 European Hydrogen
all rights reserved
Definitions of hydrogen supply options Calculation of hydrogen delivery cost
Demand Detailed
HYDROGENapproach:
forDEMAND
industrial heat © 2022 European Hydrogen147Backbone,
all rights reserved
Sub sectorDemand
Fertilizer Overallfor
approach:
industrial
Category
Industrial feedstock
of H₂ use
feedstock Approach
Includes hydrogen replacing natural gas in gas fired powered plants, as included EHB analysis
145
Dedicated Green Overall approach:
Onshore wind Dedicated green hydrogen refers to hydrogen production via electrolysis using electricity generated from
152 hydrogen delivered Hydrogen delivered
Production costs per kg of hydrogen:
costs, including transport and storage
Power electronics: Removing the inverter of the solar PV modules, enabling a reduction of 11% in
36
Note: Grid Literature review (strategies, targets, announcements, studies) and export country stakeholder interviews,
Sources: For Paper and Pulp, Cement and lime, if a location is selected as e-fuel production location no hydrogen demand is included for industrial heat – as efuels will provide for significant
1 EHB analysis report (June 2021),
Road (freight)
2 EUtl database (2019); DSO level
demand numbers already. No localisation of demand / keep at country level; for relevant countries localise based on entry point in EHB network
Sources:
Heat
1 EHB analysis report (June 2021),
3 JRC power plant database (2019);
4 EUtl database (2019), company announcements, stakeholder
Note:
(UK, DE), based on external data/literature/announced projects/TSO inputs
In the bubble maps for visualisation, the efuels category also includes hydrogen demand in refineries for desulphurisation of fossils. For Paper and Pulp, Cement and lime, if a location is
4 These cost reduction levers achieve sufficient cost savings to
keep firm hydrogen delivery costs low and cost-competitive at
Buildings
2 Clingendael International Energy Program (CIEP) (2017);
Heat interviews. selected as e-fuel production location no hydrogen demand is included for industrial heat – as efuels will provide for significant demand numbers already
Imports
Sources:
1 EHB analysis report (June 2021); 4 Eurofer; 2.4 €/kg in 2030 and 1.4 €/kg in 2040.
2 GfC Market state and trends report (2021) EUtl database (2019); 5 Fertilzers Europe; Company announcements, Stakeholder
3 JRC power plant database (2019); interviews.
1 Hybrid means any combination of renewables technologies which can lead to more load hours as wind and solar resources are often complementing, most common example being solar PV+ onshore wind.
1 Hydrogen demand for e-fuels were allocated to refineries in previous EHB analyses, for this analysis a different approach is used: localisation based on potential sources of biogenic CO₂ locations. 2 In the previous EHB analysis not all data input was on NUTS 2 level; where no NUTS 2-level data is available weighted averages will be used: for instance for electricity demand; the electricity demand data is
2 Ammonia as shipping fuel assumed to be imported on country level and will be allocated to NUTS 2 regions based on their relative supply potential.
144
Detailed methodology
1. Hydrogen demand
2. Hydrogen supply & decarbonisation
3. Hydrogen cost-competitiveness
HYDROGEN DEMAND © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Industry Fertilizer Industrial feedstock Start from previous EHB analysis database, which includes installation specific
Primary steel pathways and their locations/coordinates, adjust some assumptions (rate/pace
of decarbonisation, new announcements etc.)
Refineries¹
E-fuels Start from previous EHB H₂ demand for e-fuels production, add additional
Cement/Lime (Bio)-CCUS e-methanol demand shipping, spread over existing refineries and cement/
Paper/Pulp paper/biomass plants
Other Industry Industrial heat Allocate hydrogen demand from EHB 2021 over plants based on country,
plant’s CO₂ emissions and process temperature level.
Power Biomass
Gas-fired
Power generation Allocated hydrogen demand from EHB 2021 over plants based on country
Transport Aviation¹ and plant capacity in MW.
Shipping¹; ²
Road (freight) DSO level No localisation of demand / keep at country level; for relevant countries
(UK, DE), based on external data/literature/announced projects/TSO inputs
Buildings Heat
1 Hydrogen demand for e-fuels were allocated to refineries in previous EHB analyses, for this analysis a different approach is used: localisation based on potential sources of biogenic CO₂ locations.
2 Ammonia as shipping fuel assumed to be imported
HYDROGEN DEMAND © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Fertilizer Industrial feedstock Includes hydrogen demand in refineries for desulphurisation of fossils, fertilisers (ammonia) and
Primary steel primary steel production (as reducing agent of iron ore).
Refineries¹ Demand numbers are based on EHB analysis report¹, adjusted for new announcements by
E-fuels fertilizer and steel companies, while for steel also using the Market State and Trends report². For
Cement/Lime (Bio)-CCUS refineries, as in the EHB analysis report¹, hydrogen demand for fossil fuels is reduced to 0 over
Paper/Pulp time.
Other Industry Industrial heat Localisation based on plant locations from databases EUtl³, Eurofer⁴, Fertilizers Europe⁵ and CIEP.
In the bubble maps for visualisation, the hydrogen demand in refineries for desulphurisation of
Biomass fossils is not included in the industrial feedstock sector.
Gas-fired
Power generation
Aviation¹
Shipping¹; ²
Road (freight) DSO level
Heat
Sources:
1 EHB analysis report (June 2021); 4 Eurofer;
2 GfC Market state and trends report (2021) EUtl database (2019); 5 Fertilzers Europe; Company announcements, Stakeholder
3 JRC power plant database (2019); interviews.
HYDROGEN DEMAND © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
all rights reserved
Fertilizer Industrial feedstock Includes e-kerosene for aviation, e-methanol for shipping and hydrogen use for bio, waste and
Primary steel syn-methanol/naphtha production for High Value chemicals (HVCs). HVCs are mostly used for
production of plastics.
Refineries¹
E-fuels Demand numbers are largely based on EHB analysis report (June 2021)¹. Addition is e-methanol
Cement/Lime (Bio)-CCUS for shipping (adds ~80 TWh H₂ in 2050), while for HVCs based on recent announcements the
Paper/Pulp share of syn-methanol/naphtha is reduced vs the share of bio/waste fuels (reduces ~100 TWh H₂
in 2050). Note that the latter (bio/waste) also requires hydrogen.
Other Industry Industrial heat
Localisation at current refining installations (75%)², and for selected countries (Spain, Portugal,
Biomass Nordics) also partly at (biogenic) carbon sources for CCU: Biomass power plants³, Paper and
Gas-fired Pulp, Cement and Lime⁴ (25%). The selected countries also are allocated a larger share of the
Power generation hydrogen demand in the refineries, only minor change on non-selected countries.
Aviation¹
Shipping¹; ²
Road (freight) DSO level
Heat
Fertilizer Industrial feedstock Includes hydrogen replacing natural gas for medium temperature (150-500°C) and high
Primary steel temperature (>500°C) industrial heating processes in all industrial sectors (cement/lime, ceramics,
paper/pulp, secondary steelmaking, rockwool etc.).
Refineries¹
E-fuels Demand numbers are based on EHB analysis report (June 2021)¹. Adjustments have been made
Cement/Lime (Bio)-CCUS for a few countries due to country-specifics.
Paper/Pulp
Localisation, hydrogen demand is allocated per country to the different plants based on their
Other Industry Industrial heat relative emissions intensity in 2019² per temperature level per country. Process emissions are
excluded to calculate these shares. Note that 2019 is chosen as “pre-covid” year.
Biomass
Gas-fired
Power generation
Aviation¹
Shipping¹; ²
Road (freight) DSO level
Heat
Note:
Sources: For Paper and Pulp, Cement and lime, if a location is selected as e-fuel production location no hydrogen demand is included for industrial heat – as efuels will provide for significant
1 EHB analysis report (June 2021), 2 EUtl database (2019); demand numbers already.
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Fertilizer Industrial feedstock Includes hydrogen replacing natural gas in gas fired powered plants, as included EHB analysis
Primary steel report (June 2021)¹.
Refineries¹ Demand numbers are based on EHB analysis report (June 2021)¹. Adjustments have been made
E-fuels for a few countries due to country-specifics.
Cement/Lime (Bio)-CCUS
Paper/Pulp Localisation, hydrogen demand is allocated per country over the plants based on their relative
capacity in MW².
Other Industry Industrial heat
Biomass
Gas-fired
Power generation
Aviation¹
Shipping¹; ²
Road (freight) DSO level
Heat
Sources:
1 EHB analysis report (June 2021), 2 JRC power plant database (2019)
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150
Detailed methodology
1. Hydrogen demand
2. Hydrogen supply & decarbonisation
3. Hydrogen cost-competitiveness
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Dedicated Green Onshore wind Dedicated green hydrogen refers to hydrogen production via electrolysis using electricity generated from
renewable energy resources dedicated exclusively for hydrogen supply. This includes electricity from solar
Solar
PV (rooftop and ground) and wind (onshore and offshore).
Hybrid¹
Offshore wind Blue hydrogen refers to hydrogen production primarily via steam methane reforming using natural gas
as feedstock. Other production methods using natural gas as feedstock include autothermal reforming
(blue hydrogen) and methane pyrolysis (turquoise hydrogen)
Blue/Turquoise Existing SMR
New ATR Grid-based green hydrogen refers to hydrogen production via electrolysis using renewable electricity
from the power grid.
Methane pyrolysis
Grid Hydrogen imports refers to green hydrogen production from export countries analysed in this report.
This includes North Africa (Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) and Ukraine.
Imports
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Dedicated Green Onshore wind Start from previous EHB analysis / ENSPRESO database, estimate potential by NUTS 2 region using
previous EHB assumptions, correct for national electricity demand & supply, curtailment, grid losses and
Solar
max electricity transmission capacities on country-level.² Offshore wind supply is allocated to the NUTS2
Hybrid¹ region with closest proximity. Validated with selected stakeholder interviews with e.g. project developers.
Offshore wind Corridor-specific analysis on blue hydrogen incl. review of projects and announcement. To be validated
with TSOs.
New ATR Corridor-specific analysis on green hydrogen project/announcement basis per country, localised in NUTS
2 based on where relatively most demand sits (weighted average; more H₂ demand in a NUTS 2 means
Methane pyrolysis
more grid-based hydrogen supply). To be validated with TSOs.
Grid Literature review (strategies, targets, announcements, studies) and export country stakeholder interviews,
localise based on entry point in EHB network
Imports
1 Hybrid means any combination of renewables technologies which can lead to more load hours as wind and solar resources are often complementing, most common example being solar PV+ onshore wind.
2 In the previous EHB analysis not all data input was on NUTS 2 level; where no NUTS 2-level data is available weighted averages will be used: for instance for electricity demand; the electricity demand data is
on country level and will be allocated to NUTS 2 regions based on their relative supply potential.
HYDROGEN DECARBONIZATION & SUPPLY © 2022 European Hydrogen Backbone,
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Industry Fertilizer CO₂-Emission by transforming methane (80% market share) and coal (20%) to hydrogen for ammonia production, resulting in 13.10 tons
CO₂ saved by using 1 ton of green hydrogen.
Primary steel Using direct-reduction-plants instead of common blast-furnaces 26 tons of CO₂ can be saved by 1 ton of green hydrogen.
Refineries By using 1 ton green hydrogen for Hydrocracking or Hydrotreating, Steam-Methane-Reforming is not longer necessary which
concludes in 10.92 tons CO₂ saved.
Energy A 2.4 times higher calorific value of hydrogen in comparison with methane, which emits 182 g CO₂/ kWh by burning, conclude to
0.43 t CO₂ saved using one ton of hydrogen.
Power Gas-fired One ton of hydrogen saves 0.74 ton CO₂ in 2030, 0.46 ton CO₂ in 2040 and 0.27 ton CO₂ in 2050, depending on the total
emissions of the electricity mix in that year.
Transport Mobility Direct hydrogen use for heavy transport (e.g. 25 t truck) saves 4.375 litres diesel per kg hydrogen, which equals to 11.55 tons CO₂
saved by 1 ton of hydrogen.
Efuels Depending on the FLH of synthesis plant (e.g. 4000 h/year) 10.89 tons CO₂ can be saved by using 1 ton of hydrogen considering a
diesel engine with 2.64 kg CO₂/ litre diesel as status-quo.
Buildings Heat A 2.4 times higher calorific value of hydrogen in comparison with methane, which emits 182 g CO₂/ kWh by burning, conclude to
0.43 t CO₂ saved using one ton of hydrogen.
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154
Detailed methodology
1. Hydrogen demand
2. Hydrogen supply & decarbonisation
3. Hydrogen cost-competitiveness
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Methodology: 155
1 1.25 €/kg is based on the cost of 5 € to store 1kg of hydrogen for a year, assuming an average of 2 storage cycles. Source: U.S. Department of Energy (2019). 3 Resulting in 2% more energy output due to reduction of conversion inefficiencies and 3% CAPEX reduction due to avoiding of electrical infrastructure.
2 A reduction in WACC is only applied to select corridors; for example, a reduction of 10% to 8% is applied to imports from Tunisia in Corridor A and supply from Romania in Corridor E, while a re- 4 Resulting in a 12.4% reduction of offshore infrastructure costs in comparison with full-electric infrastructure.
duction of 8% to 6% is applied to imports from Spain in Corridor B. No cost reductions are applied to Corridors C and D because the credit rating of its supply countries are already relatively high. 5 Resulting in a 5% higher energy yield, based on increasing the generator capacity from 15GW to 16GW.