Professional Documents
Culture Documents
GWEC.NET 1
2 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020
Table of Contents
Foreword5
Market Status 2019 9
Market Outlook 2030 13
Taking Offshore Global 31
Offshore Wind Technologies 80
Conclusion 95
Appendix98
Abbreviation99
GWEC.NET 3
4 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020
Foreword
Rapid Growth world. Given that more than 70% September 2018, has brought
of the planet is covered by sea, together the major industry
It’s been quite a journey since I first and wind speeds are considerably players in offshore wind. Key
got involved in the offshore wind stronger offshore than onshore, the interventions have been in
industry 20 years ago. fundamentals are promising. Taiwan, Vietnam and Japan to
assist market development.
Offshore wind energy took its first Going Global
steps in the 1990s and has been • The World Bank’s ESMAP
growing in scale ever since. In Offshore wind is going global, Offshore Wind Development
recent years, however, growth has country by country. This piecemeal Program, launched in March Alastair Dutton
accelerated. From being 1% of global development is unhelpful for a supply 2019, is focused on expanding Chair of Global Offshore
wind installations by capacity in 2009, chain which is seeking to make sound offshore wind to developing Wind Task Force, GWEC
offshore wind has grown to over 10% investments and continue to reduce countries. The program is alastair.dutton@gwec.net
in 2019. Measured in investment costs. However, there are a number engaging numerous countries
terms that figure is much greater. of initiatives which aim to accelerate which will form part of the
offshore wind’s deployment: wider global market in years to
Offshore wind is now a mature come.
industry, but is only just beginning
• GWEC’s Global Offshore Wind
GWEC.NET 5
Future Markets • Floating technology will come • One of those lessons is the UK
of age this decade, tripling the Sector Deal which outlines targets
• Existing markets are hungry
technical potential for offshore and plans for government and
for more, notably UK, Germany,
Denmark, Netherlands, wind across the world. Initially industry to work together to
Belgium and China. As an the key markets are France, dramatically progress the sector
example, the UK is targeting 40 Japan, South Korea, Scotland, for the benefit of all. This best
GW by 2030, up from 10 GW Norway, Portugal, Spain and US practice is now being adopted in
today. Pacific Coast. Once commercial other markets such as Japan and
scale projects are established Poland.
• Emerging markets include
and costs come down many
Taiwan, US Atlantic Coast, COVID-19
other locations will come into
Japan, South Korea and
play, for example South Africa,
Vietnam. Not only do these To date offshore wind has been less
Canada, Philippines and many
markets want low cost impacted than most energy sectors
island states.
electricity to decarbonize by the pandemic, and stands ready to
their footprint but they are Lessons Learned be a material part of a green recovery
keen to establish their own package.
supply chains to benefit their
• Much has been learned from
the last 30 years of offshore Conclusion
economies. However, inflexible wind deployment in Europe.
local content requirements Those lessons are being taken The potential of offshore wind to
could frustrate those economic worldwide by developers and achieve the energy transition within
hopes by raising the cost consultants. Governments the right time frame and contribute to
of electricity and creating are adapting those lessons in post-COVID recovery is increasingly
inefficient local suppliers not the context of their particular being understood around the world.
able to compete on a regional political and fiscal backdrops. At GWEC, we look forward to working
or global market. with you all to realise this potential
• New markets are in the
preparation phase. Examples
include Brazil, Mexico, India,
Sri Lanka, Australia and many From being 1% of global wind installations by
more. In Europe the existing
market will expand into Ireland,
capacity in 2009, offshore wind has grown to over
Poland, Lithuania and others. 10% in 2019
GWEC.NET 7
Lessons learned and draw upon the cheapest, highest conditions for construction and role to play guiding the world through
quality suppliers of components from service. these exceptional circumstances,
What learnings can be shared as an the region. setting a practical course to reach
increasing number of countries look Having risen to the initial challenge, global decarbonisation targets.
to deliver many more projects further There is also an ever-increasing gap the industry now has the opportunity
out to sea whilst reaping the industrial between the “raw” MWs that many to direct funds set aside for green This GWEC report provides a
benefits of offshore wind? nations are targeting ahead of 2030- recovery stimulus packages to snapshot of the industry today, and
2050 renewable energy plans and the accelerate the investments in the the potential we have to realise
The gradual, organic build up in the “qualified” MWs that can actually be necessary infrastructure that will help together in partnership to ensure the
European supply chain has seen the installed by 2030-2050. As the size unleash the potential of the oceans future of our planet.
rejuvenation of coastal communities, and complexity of projects increase, and the economic potential of many
the growth of second and third tier greater emphasis must be placed countries.
suppliers across the continent, and on reducing inefficiencies during
skill development pathways to help the permitting process to ensure Investment in grids, ports, Power-to-
transition workforces from sunsetting projects can be delivered on time Green Hydrogen projects all have
to sunrising industries. and reach these targets. The industry the potential to rapidly increase
has clear vision on the stakeholders deployment of offshore winds. If the
With such valuable social and delays in the permitting process can
and challenges that typically cause
economic value and the continual also be minimised through renewed
delays, and these challenges must
reduction in cost of energy, it is easy political willpower, then offshore wind
be addressed and resolved by
to see why offshore wind is becoming is ready to deliver on its potential.
collaboration with the industry and
so appealing. The success seen in
policymakers before MW targets can
Europe has created expectations Rising to the challenge
be considered qualified and offshore
around the globe that offshore wind
wind can grow as a sector. John F Kennedy once said, “these
will generate economic value as well
are extraordinary times. And we face
as deliver a low cost of energy to The COVID-19 effect an extraordinary challenge. Our
power sustainable, green economies,
Without a doubt, COVID-19 has strength as well as our convictions
regionally.
changed the world forever. When have imposed upon this nation the
The industry has demonstrated that the pandemic first hit, the industry’s role of leader”, and while he may
the supply chain will come with focus was on ensuring continuity of have originally been speaking
volume organically. As turbines business in both the supply chain about freedom, it is an apt quote for
become even larger and more and in operating offshore wind parks. the offshore industry to adopt. The
powerful, offshore logistics dictate The industry demonstrated strong green energy transition needs our
that supply chains have to be regional resilience, notably in the challenging leadership, we have a very important
GWEC.NET 9
Annual installations • In The Netherlands, Vattenfall won
the second Dutch zero-subsidy
With 6.1 GW new capacity added, offshore wind tender, totalling
2019 was the best year in history for 760 MW, in July 2019 (repeating
the global offshore wind industry. the zero-priced bids of the first
• China achieved a new record in round in 2018 and meaning that
2019, installing 2.4 GW offshore the project will only receive the
wind in a single year. The United wholesale price of electricity and
Kingdom came in second place, no further support/payment).
although it also had record Those results prove how offshore
installations of 1.8 GW in 2019. costs have come down through
With 1.1 GW of new installations, technology innovation and
Germany took the third place, economies of scale.
followed by Denmark and Belgium. • The US offshore sector made great
• The results from the UK CfD progress last year. The country’s
Allocation Round 3 announced in total offshore wind procurement
September 2019 showed record targets increased from 9.1 GW
low strike prices ranging from in 2018 to 25.4 GW in 2019
£39 to £41/MWh (in 2012 prices), after New York and New Jersey
which is about 30% lower than the upgraded their offshore targets,
auction held in 2017. In total, more and more states released their
than 5.4 GW offshore wind projects offshore wind targets. Six states
were awarded. had selected more than 6 GW of
offshore wind through state-issued
solicitations as of December
GWEC.NET 11
FLOATING WIND
• 11.4 MW floating
wind installed in
2019, of which 8.4
MW is from Portugal
and 3 MW from
Japan;
• As of the 2019, a
total of 65.7 MW
floating wind was
installed global, of
which 32 MW is
located in the UK, 19
MW in Japan, 10.4
MW in Portugal,
2.3MW in Norway
and 2 MW in France
75.2%
29% 26%
China The UK Germany Denmark The UK Germany China Denmark Europe APAC Europe APAC North America
Belgium Taiwan Portugal Japan Belgium Netherlands Sweden Taiwan
Vietnam South Korea Others
GWEC.NET 13
Offshore Market Outlook to 2030
The global offshore wind market overall growth of the global wind offshore wind tenders worldwide. For
outlook to 2030 has grown more market, and expects offshore wind to the medium-term market outlook,
promising over the past year as contribute more than 20 percent of aside from existing project pipelines,
governments raise their ambition total wind installations by 2025. a top-down approach has also been
levels and new countries join the used, which takes into account
market. With an average annual As the world’s largest regional existing policy, support schemes and
growth rate of 18.6 percent until 2024 offshore wind market, Europe is national level offshore wind targets.
and 8.2 per cent up to the end of the expected to maintain steady growth,
decade, new annual installations are but new installations outside Europe,
expected to sail past the milestones of predominantly from Asia and North
20 GW in 2025 and 30 GW in 2030. America, are likely to surpass
Europe in 2020 for the first time and Global offshore wind growth to 2030
GWEC Market Intelligence expects continue exceeding volume in Europe New installations Other China Europe
that over 205 GW of new offshore through 2030. In the near-term GW, offshore North America Asia ex China
wind capacity will be added over the (2020-2024), the majority of growth
CAGR** 1 1
next decade. Three-quarters of this outside of Europe will primarily come +8.2% 31.9
31.0
new volume will be installed in the from China and Taiwan, with the 2.0 3.0 3.4
latter half (2025-2030), as projects contribution from the US becoming 26.2
25.5 6.0 6.0
currently in planning get connected to sizeable from 2024 when the first CAGR*
+18.6% 21.5 21.5 3.0 3.0
the grid. utility-scale offshore project comes
4.2 3.2 5.5 5.5 6.9 7.0
online.
Offshore wind already accounted 1.1
5.0
5.0
4.6
0.3 4.7
for 10 percent of global new wind Our near-term offshore wind market 0.3 2.0 13.0 3.2
1.8
9.7 9.9 1.5 2.9 3.7
power installations in 2019. Buoyed outlook was built using a bottom-up 9.1 14.1 14.5
6.1 6.6 3.5 3.5 11.4
by expansion into new markets and approach and is based on GWEC 5.0 3.0 10.1 11.0
2.4 4.0 8.7
acceleration of the global energy Market Intelligence’s global offshore 4.6 5.5
3.6 4.3
2.3 2.7
transition, GWEC Market Intelligence wind project database, which covers 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
foresees offshore wind playing an projects currently under construction,
* CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
increasingly important role in the global auction results and announced Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
0 0
GW in 2026 and then potentially reach 15
NL -Borssele
shore
Flak
3+4
GER 1st
GER-2nd
FR -
Dunkirk
UK - 3rd
CfD
DK-Horns
CfD17/18
CfD 18/19
1+2
NL -Hollan-dse
UK-2nd
CfD 21/22
UK-2nd
CfD 22/23
Kust 1+2
UK -1st
UK -1st
DK -Near
NL-Borssele
Rev 3
DK-Kriegers
GW by 2030
• Tenders above 100MW capacity and no innovation auctions, tenders in order of execution from 2015 to end of 2019
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, GWEC Auction Database May 2020
GWEC.NET 15
This growth forecast is unchanged projects, is underway with Invitation it establishes a long-term offshore
in our post-COVID scenario. After a to Tender (ITT) Stage 1 submission target of 40 GW by 2040. The
slow start in the beginning of 2020s, period concluded. In early June, amendment has been welcomed by
however, the European offshore Crown Estate Scotland also launched the industry, as it brings in volume,
market is likely to bounce back in the ScotWind seabed leasing round scale, jobs and long-term visibility.
2022 when all the UK’s CfD 2 projects for offshore wind projects, followed
will come online. New installations in by the UK Committee on Climate France
Europe are likely to reach 8.7 GW in Change (CCC)’s recommendation to The Multiannual Energy Programme
2025. the government in June to deliver at (Programmation pluriannuelle de
least 40 GW of offshore wind by 2030.
Taking into account recently l’énergie (PPE)) that came into force
increased or proposed offshore wind Germany in April 2020 shows that France will
targets from established markets and tender up to 8.75 GW of offshore wind
activities in new European markets, The German wind industry has capacity from 2020 to 2028. The PPE
such as those around the Black Sea, been struggling with the federal also increases the intended operating
GWEC Market Intelligence expects government’s conservative offshore offshore wind capacity to between 5.2
more offshore wind to be built in wind target. The good news is that GW and 6.2 GW by 2028. The 2023
the second half of the decade. New Germany’s Federal Cabinet has operating capacity target is 2.4 GW.
installations are likely to exceed 20 approved the amendment to the From 2024 onward, France will tender
GW in 2026 and then potentially Offshore Wind Act (WindSeeG) in 1 GW per year of either fixed-bottom
reach 15 GW by 2030. June 2020. Not only does the bill or floating wind capacity, depending
increase the 2030 offshore wind on the cost.
The United Kingdom target from 15 GW to 20 GW, but
Denmark
As the world’s largest offshore wind Total added between 2020 and 2030
market, the UK continues to tell a GW, offshore In June 2020, the Danish parliament
successful story through its 2019 approved a new Climate Action Plan
Sector Deal, reached between the Rest of
which calls for the development of
20% Europe two “energy islands,” one in the North
government and industry, through its
34% Belgium Sea and one in the Baltic Sea (with a
new government target of 40 percent
3% Denmark combined capacity of 5 GW planned
of UK power from offshore wind by
89 GW France by 2030) and also approves the
2030, and through the 30 percent 9%
Netherlands development and construction of one
cost reduction achieved from CfD
Germany more wind farm in the Baltic Sea with
Rounds 2 to 3. CfD Round 4, which 9% UK capacity of up to 1 GW.
seeks to award up to 8.5 GW of 14%
11%
GWEC Market Intelligence’s latest Global offshore wind growth to 2030 in Asia
market outlook predicts that China
will continue to dominate the Asian New installations, Asia Rest of Asia Vietnam S. Korea China
GW, affshore India Taiwan Japan
offshore wind market in the first 13.0
Share of Chinese CAGR* 12.9
half of this decade, with more than X% offshore market +8.4% 0.7 0.8
70 percent market share. Taiwan is CAGR* 1.0 1.0
+1.7% 10.1 10.2 0.7 0.7
expected to be the largest offshore 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
8.7 0.1
market in Asia after China in new 0.1 8.2 0.6 0.7 2.0 2.0
0.6
7.0 0.6 1.0 1.0
installations in the same period. 0.1
0.4
2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5
0.5
0.1 1.5 0.4 1.0 1.0
0.1 0.1 4.8 0.1 5.0 0.2 4.6
0.5
1.0
However, the scales will tip from 2025, 4.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4
0.5
0.9 0.8
when more utility-scale offshore wind 0.1 2.5 0.4
0.5
5.5 5.5 6.0 6.0
5.0 5.0 5.0
projects get connected in Japan, 4.0
3.0
3.5 3.5
2.4
South Korea and Vietnam. GWEC
Market Intelligence forecasts that 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
China’s market share in this region 95% 93% 72% 62% 70% 77% 58% 61% 54% 54% 47% 46%
is likely to drop to 58% in 2025 and * CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
GWEC.NET 17
installations in this decade will be GWEC Market Intelligence predicts in total installations by 2021, if not
China (52 GW), Taiwan (10.5 GW), that Europe will remain the largest 2020. However, new installations will
South Korea (7.9 GW), Japan (7.4 regional offshore wind market in decline dramatically from 2022, when
GW) and Vietnam (5.2 GW). terms of total installations by 2025 and the central government will terminate
2030. Nevertheless, Asia’s share of the subsidy for offshore wind. Annual
Excluding China, the Asian offshore the global market is expected to grow offshore wind growth in China in
wind market is still at the early stage from 24 percent in 2019 to 42 percent the future will depend on whether
of development. Each market is in 2025, where it is likely to remain subsidies provided by provincial
facing the challenge of developing a until the end of the decade. governments will be available and
local supply chain and the necessary whether offshore wind industry can
competencies and capabilities to China reach grid parity before 2025.
build an offshore wind industry.
China was the world’s No. 3 offshore Taiwan
market in total installations as of
Total installations Other Asia China
Percentage and GW, offshore
the end of 2019 (after the UK and With 128 MW offshore wind capacity
Other Europe
Germany). At present, project online at present, Taiwan is positioned
29 GW 99 GW 235 GW developers and investors are rushing to become the second-largest
1%
11% to commission their projects before offshore wind market in this region. It
16%
23% the end of the 2021 deadline in order will connect 5.5 GW of new offshore
31% 25% to capitalise on the 0.85RMB/kWh wind by 2025 and another 10 GW
FiT for offshore wind. Considering will be tendered by the government
7% extraordinary volume of new capacity through the Round 3 auctions for
12%
(4-5 GW/year) will be built in 2020 commissioning by 2035, providing
75% and 2021, GWEC Market Intelligence the long-term visibility needed
51% 48% expects China will surpass the UK as to generate a local offshore wind
the world’s largest offshore market industry and supply chain.
The early experience from Taiwan China will continue to dominate the Asian offshore
has proven that collaboration with wind market in the first half of this decade with
European partners across markets in
this region is essential for success. more than 70 per cent market share
Although the “green growth” strategy More than 500 MW offshore wind
announced almost a decade ago projects in the pipeline were
has failed to boost its offshore wind expected to come online before the
development, the Democratic Party current FiT deadline of November
led by President Moon Jae-in seems 2021. Taking into account the recent
intent on reviving the green agenda. announcement of a FiT extension
To reach the “Renewable Energy to the end of 2023 followed by an
3020” target of 20 percent renewables auction system from 2024, which
in the power mix by 2030, South was officially sanctioned by the
Korea is targeting 12 GW of new Prime Minister in June, GWEC
offshore wind capacity to be built by Market Intelligence predicts a total
the end of this decade. of 5.2 GW offshore wind capacity to
be built between 2020 and 2030.
Japan
market to take off from the middle of China Taiwan S.Korea Vietnam
this decade.
* Construction defined as beginning of foundation work
Source: GWEC Market intelligence, May 2020
GWEC.NET 19
North America
North America installed its first Based on GWEC Market
test offshore wind turbine, a 1/8th Intelligence’s global offshore wind
geometric scale of a 6 MW turbine, project pipeline, no utility-scale
off the coast of Maine in 2013, and offshore wind project will come
connected its first commercial wind online in North America before 2024.
project to the grid in Rhode Island In total, 23 GW of offshore wind is
in December 2016. As of the end predicted to be built in this region in
of 2019, 30 MW of offshore wind this decade, of which less than 1 GW
capacity was spinning in North is expected to come from Canada,
America, making it the only region despite its high technical resource
with commercial offshore wind potential.
outside of Europe and Asia.
CAGR*
+75.9%
4.2
3.2 3.4
2.9 3.0 3.0 0.4
4.2
3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
2.9
0.3
0.0 0.01 0.0 0.0
2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
GWEC.NET 21
Floating Offshore
Market Outlook to
2030
The world’s first MW scale floating After a decade of development, is ready to progress quickly to full
offshore wind turbine was grid- floating offshore wind is no longer commercialisation.
connected by Equinor in Norway in simply an R&D area. With more oil
2009. As of the end of 2019, a total majors such as Shell and TOTAL At present, the 2030 floating offshore
of 66 MW of floating wind capacity starting to focus on floating wind, wind forecast ranges from 3 GW to
has been installed worldwide. this sub-section of offshore wind nearly 19 GW, depending on how
quickly LCOE can be brought down
New installations France
MW, floating**
USA Ireland South Korea (Republic of) to an affordable level and its adoption
Norway Portugal United Kingdom Japan
2000 by new markets.
Greece Italy Spain PR China
GWEC Market Intelligence predicts
CAGR* 500 6.2 GW of floating wind is likely to
+23.2% 1500
be built in the next 10 years. This
outlook is primarily based on the
500 500 existing global floating offshore
project pipeline as well as announced
CAGR* 800 investment plans. Out of the 6.5 GW
+37.6% 706
640 500 500 floating wind installations, we expect
150
50 less than 10 percent to be built in the
15 32 300 500
10
64 250 300 first half of this decade; the majority
17 50 232
8 182 5 12 96 500 500 of new volume will come online in the
48 2 250
3 75 52 17 250 300
11 88 29 200 200 10 latter half, when large-scale floating
90
wind projects tendered through
Y2019 Y2020e Y2021e Y2022e Y2023e Y2024e Y2025e Y2026e Y2027e Y2028e Y2029e Y2030e
auctions are expected to be installed.
* CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
** Note: this floating wind outlook is already included in GWEC’s global offshore wind forecast
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
Source: Q FWE
GWEC.NET 23
Impact of COVID-19 on Global
Offshore Wind Market
The COVID-19 pandemic has offshore wind sector, with longer
2020 was on track to be a shocked the global energy sector, project development timelines,
record year in global wind forcing projects to suspend work will largely be shielded from the
history with more than 76 to comply with social distancing short-term supply chain disruptions
GW to be installed. However, regulations, challenging the which impacted project execution in
the COVID-19 crisis, which investment conditions of markets onshore markets across the world.
disrupted global wind bracing for economic recession and In 2020, the wind capacity lost to the
supply chains and project slashing power demand by up to pandemic is estimated by GWEC
construction execution, is 10% in some regions in 2020. The Market Intelligence at around 15 GW
expected to lead to a more size of that decline is around seven – most of the downgrade will affect
modest 61.4 GW this year, times greater than during the 2008- onshore wind, with volume shifting to
19 percent lower than our 2009 global financial crisis, according come online by 2021 instead.
pre-COVID forecast made in to the IEA, and has hit demand for oil,
natural gas and coal the hardest. Impact of COVID-19 on global
Q1 2020. Most of the impact
offshore outlook
will be felt by the onshore
But renewable energy will see an
wind sector, and new wind Over the next five years, the leader
overall increase in its share of global
installations are likely to for offshore wind installations by far
power generation this year, due to
bounce back to make 2021 will be Mainland China, where 19
its cost-competitiveness and priority
a record year with annual GW is expected to be commissioned
dispatch in many markets. And the
installations reaching 77.7 GW.
GWEC.NET 25
Green Recovery
The pandemic has highlighted the
opportunity to make wind power a
cornerstone of economic growth and
recovery packages. GWEC’s global
statement on “Re-building Better”
for the future, signed by leading
wind companies and associations
representing 98 percent of installed
onshore and offshore wind power
worldwide, highlights wind power as
a source of affordable, clean and zero-
carbon electricity, which can bring
significant socioeconomic benefits
to local communities (see page 26
“Driving millions”).
GWEC.NET 27
Driving Millions of Sustainable Jobs in
the Energy Transition
At a time when governments are mechanics, scientists, and offshore
considering maximum impact per equipment and vessel operators.” 17.3 direct jobs (defined
dollar of economic stimulus, it is worth as one year of full-time
highlighting that offshore wind farms Based on data from IRENA, gathered
during a 2018 study of nearly 30 employment for one
have greater labour requirements
than onshore wind farms, due to more stakeholders, GWEC estimates that person) are created
complex construction, assembly and 17.3 direct jobs (defined as one per MW of generation
installation activities. year of full-time employment for capacity over the 25-year
one person) are created per MW lifetime of an offshore
Offshore wind offers a range of of generation capacity over the
wind project.[1]
job opportunities across the value 25-year lifetime of an offshore
chain – from project planning wind project.[1] With nearly 51 Nearly 900,000 jobs in
and financing to manufacturing GW of new offshore wind capacity
offshore wind are likely
and transport to construction and forecast to be installed worldwide
operations and maintenance (O&M). by 2024, that equals nearly 900,000 to be created over the
A 2020 study by the American Wind jobs in offshore wind created over next five years.
Energy Association found that the the next five years – a figure which
sector offers “good, well-paying can only increase if offshore wind
jobs requiring a diverse technical deployment scales up.
workforce spanning an estimated
74 occupations… [including]
electricians, welders, turbine [1] This is a generalised calculation for demonstration
technicians, longshoremen, truck purposes only, and does not account for
technology evolution, application of various
drivers, crane operators, ironworkers, platforms or installation technologies, economies
pipe-fitters, pile drivers, engineers, of scale, productivity rates or learning excellence.
Comprehensive studies are required to determine
job creation potential for offshore wind for specific
markets.
GWEC.NET 29
Looking Beyond 2030
Beyond the next decade, key far beyond current forecasts roadmapping and workshops. (see
government and industry bodies from international institutions, but page 74)
are setting their sights even according to OREAC, reaching this
ambitious target would be possible Progress made over the next ten
higher for offshore wind. The EU’s
with strong collaboration between years will lay the foundation for
staggering 450 GW aim by 2050
government and industry, policy how high and how far offshore wind
foresees industrial clusters in the
stability, market transparency and can scale in the decades beyond.
North Sea (with nearly half of the
responsible development, allowing With strong economics, exciting
targeted capacity), Atlantic Ocean,
offshore wind to thrive among other technology evolution and growing
Baltic Sea and southern European
sustainable ocean uses. interest from coastal markets around
waters. Installations will be mainly
the world, offshore wind is set to be a
concentrated in the UK, Netherlands,
World Bank’s ESMAP Offshore Wind game-changer in the global energy
France, Germany, Denmark and
Development Program, launched in transition.
Poland, with several other EU markets
March 2019, targets the acceleration
home to double-digit volumes.
of offshore wind development in non-
The Ocean Renewable Energy OECD countries around the world. As
Action Coalition (OREAC) is a global a partner of this programme, GWEC
group of leading offshore wind works with the World Bank to engage
developers, technology providers policymakers on recognising and
and stakeholders including GWEC, delivering the offshore wind potential
launched in December 2019 in in their market through national
response to the UN High Level Panel
for Sustainable Ocean Economy’s
call for ocean-based climate
action. OREAC envisions offshore
wind reaching 1.4 TW of installed Progress made over the next 10 years will lay the
capacity by 2050, driven by the
foundation for how high and how far offshore wind
sector’s ability to drive investment,
generate jobs and severely cut can scale in decades beyond.
emissions worldwide. This goes
GWEC.NET 31
Part 1. Lessons learnt
a. Support scheme
this growth has been concentrated The Netherlands n/a Contract for Difference (CfD)
in the UK, Germany, mainland China, Taiwan
Denmark, Belgium and Netherlands. Competitive Bidding
China
Particularly around the North Sea, Auctions with Zero-subsidy
Japan n/a
a bedrock of supply chain, finance,
innovation and expertise has Centralised Auctions
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
emerged. Now, the offshore market is Corporate PPAs with T-REC (Taiwan
taking off in Asia and North America, Beginning with federal support for Renewable Energy Certification)
with promising developments in demonstration projects, the sector
Premium Tariff through Tendering
Pacific, Latin America and Africa in has evolved towards Contract for System
the medium-to-long term. Difference (CfD) mechanisms and
even zero-subsidy bids in certain Auction with celling price regulated
Over the last 10 years, policy stability, markets. Of these, the CfD scheme
financial support schemes and Feed-in-Premium (SDE)
has delivered large volumes in UK, the
innovation clusters have improved offshore wind market leader (below),
the economics and scalability of accounting for competitive pricing
offshore wind, moving it from an and market reference pricing while
emerging technology to a critical part granting revenue certainty over a long
of global decarbonisation roadmaps. duration.[2]
[2] Probable Upcoming Scheme; GWEC Analysis
GWEC.NET 33
Taiwan Mainland China Japan
• For the implementation of targets • The Renewable Energy Law was • Following the approval of the
set in its “Thousand Wind Turbines released in 2006, as the foundation for Renewable Energy Bill in 2011, Japan
Promotion Project”, Taiwan offered policy of offshore wind power planning introduced a FiT for wind energy in June
a “Demonstration Incentive Program” and development, economic incentive 2012. At the time, offshore wind was
grant scheme designed to award two policies, grid connection policy and priced the same as onshore, although
offshore wind farm projects in 2012. A technical standards. that has since changed. In March
guaranteed PPA with the FiT mechanism • China’s first round of concession bidding 2014, the Ministry of Economy Trade
was provided since 2013 with gradual started in 2010. In 2014, FiTs were and Industry (METI) announced new
reduction in FiT rates. introduced for offshore wind farms (CNY wind tariffs for 2014/15 (¥22/kWh (€
• To capture cost reductions, a competitive 0.85/kWh for offshore projects, CNY 0.17/kWh) for onshore and ¥36/kWh
bidding process with lower FiT rates was 0.75/kWh for intertidal projects). (€0.28/kWh) for offshore) for 20 years.
introduced in 2018 and the offshore Although the purchase prices were high,
• Following the new regulation released
wind target was increased to 5.5 GW complex permitting, and approvals
in 2018, offshore projects approved in
by 2025, Initial 3.5 GW out of 5.5 made wind energy development a
2019 and 2020 will go to competitive
GW is allocated through FiT and 2 GW daunting process in Japan.
auction, with the price cap set at CNY
is allocated through the Competitive 0.80/kWh and CNY 0.75/kWh • In November 2018, Japan introduced
Bidding to drive down the price. respectively. In January 2020, the competitive bids for pre-identified
According to recent announcement, Chinese central government announced promotion zones in a new national
the next 10 GW offshore wind it would completely stop subsidies for framework for offshore wind projects.
auctions (termed Round 3) will likely be offshore wind from 2022 onward, Under the Act, developers will compete
conducted across two phases with the but subsidies provided by provincial not just on tariff, but also on the The seven markets above (the UK,
first phase starting in 2021. governments are encouraged to provide suitability of their occupancy plans in Denmark, Germany, Netherlands,
• To address the effects of FiT reduction continuity of support. promotion zones. mainland China, Taiwan, and
and support project financing, corporate • In March 2020, METI announced FIT Japan) represent more than
PPAs can be a driver in Taiwan. prices for fiscal year 2020. This sets 27 GW of installed offshore
off from FiT to auction system for fixed
capacity, as of 2019, driven by a
bottom offshore wind power and floating
combination of support schemes.
offshore wind at 36 ¥/kWh, to further
boost investor interest. As the economics of offshore
wind strengthened, permitting
timelines eased and capacity
targets increased, support schemes
gradually transitioned towards
mechanisms that encourage market
competition while providing long-
term price visibility.
Offshore wind is a monumental (strike price). It therefore creates decline, driven by the affirmed 40
success story for the UK, which is predictability for project owners GW by 2030 target.
home to around one-third of the total by guaranteeing a price for power
resource potential in the EU[4]. The generated, while reducing exposure The mechanism is being employed
Renewables Obligation (RO) was the to wholesale price risk. in other markets too. Poland has
first support mechanism for offshore proposed a CfD model in draft
wind, coming into effect in 2002 and The CfD model has steadily legislation for its first phase of
obligating UK electricity suppliers delivered high volumes of offshore procurement ending December 2022.
to source power from renewable wind capacity while driving down Denmark has agreed to award Thor
sources. Up to 5 GW of offshore wind costs, including grid charges, to Offshore Wind farm through CfD and
was procured under the RO until below €46/MWh (£41.7) in the 2019 will launch a tendering process in
2017. round 3, down from €154/MWh Q3 2020. To reach 20 GW by 2030,
(£120) in the 2015 round 1. The Germany is reviewing different
Under the Electricity Market UK’s Offshore Sector Deal foresees auction models, with the wind
Reform (EMR) planned in 2013, the offshore wind costs will further industry pushing for CfD.
government targeted reliable and
affordable clean energy sources,
introducing a transition from the UK support scheme - CfD rounds leading to cost reduction for offshore wind
RO to CfD mechanism. CfD is a
MW EUR/MWh 200
private contract between a low- 6000 5,500
carbon electricity generator and the
5000 153.9
government-owned Low Carbon 146.2 150
Contracts Company (LCCC), which 4000
limits the requirement for subsidies.
100
The generator receives support 3000
81.2 2,336
when remuneration is lower than the
2000
agreed tariff (set based on reference 46.0 50
860 62.4
wholesale prices) and returns the 1000 714
448
profit to the state when remuneration
0
is higher than the pre-agreed price 0
2015 CfD 2015 CfD 2017 CfD 2017 CfD 2019 CfD
Round 1 Round 1 Round 2 Round 2 Round 3
[4] https://www.irena.org/documentdownloads/ Delivery Delivery Delivery Delivery Delivery
publications/gwec_uk.pdf 2017/18 2018/19 2021/22 2022/23 2025
GWEC.NET 35
Case study: The Netherlands - specific conditions for zero-subsidy bids
The Netherlands’ Energy Agreement the Hollandse Kust Noord offshore Affairs is targeting bidding with and model has been widely deployed
for Sustainable Growth announced wind farm zone in April 2020 that without subsidies to deliver its target as it limits the burden of subsidies
a 4.5 GW offshore wind target by is one of three offshore wind areas of 1GW new installations per year for government and consumers and
2023, prompting the inclusion of chosen by the Dutch government from 2023-2030. This scheme would hedges the risk of exposure to volatile
offshore wind in the SDE+ regulation to be developed by 2023, as part of account for variance in project site wholesale power prices or negative
(Stimulating Renewable Energy). the country’s Energy Agreement for complexity and technical/permitting pricing as well as creating revenue
SDE+ is a support scheme wherein sustainable growth. requirements, while recognising the certainty. Such procurement schemes
the government provides both role of revenue stability in sustaining which provide long-term visibility and
guarantees and risk reductions to The risk profile of zero-subsidy bids investor confidence to generate a stronger investment cases will be key
renewable energy developers via a mean higher financing costs – as steady pipeline of projects. to scaling offshore wind to emerging
tendering scheme with subsidies. much as 2.5% - making the scheme markets, particularly at the volumes
suitable only for specific projects Support schemes have been one necessary to drive system-wide
With a 40% cost reduction achieved under the right market conditions.[5] of the drivers of the offshore wind decarbonisation.
in the first SDE+ tender in 2016, the In the future, the Ministry of Economic market in Europe to date. The CfD
Netherlands launched its first zero-
subsidy offshore wind tender in 2017
and awarded it in 2018 (see Figure Falling offshore wind cost to zero-subsidy bids in Netherland
2[2]) to Vattenfall for Hollandse Kust
MW EUR/MWh
Zuid site mainly due to: the availability 73
of larger turbines which reduced 760 80
800
752 732 740
capital costs; and reductions in project 70
700
risk via the government assuming 600 60
55 44
responsibility and cost for grid 500 50
connections. Following a second zero- 400 40
subsidy bid in 2019, the Hollandse 300 30
Kust Zuid site recently reached 200 20
Zero Zero
FID, becoming the world’s largest 100 bid bid 10
subsidy-free offshore wind farm at 19
0 0
1.5GW, due to be commissioned 2016 2016 2017 2018 2019
Borselle 1+2 Borselle 3+4 Hollandse Kust Innovation tender - Hollandse
in 2023. The Dutch government 1+2 Borselle V Kust 3+4
has also organized the tender for
[5] https://renews.biz/59118/negative-bidding-could-endanger-german-offshore/
Offshore wind has already proven chain through steady public-sector demonstrated that active dialogue
itself as an affordable, scalable, zero- steering and investment in R&D. between government and industry
carbon energy source. It also has Germany’s offshore wind workforce and a steady pipeline of projects can
the capacity to generate enormous has grown with government generate supply chain investments
socioeconomic benefits, particularly investment in training programmes to transform local industry. In 2020
for coastal communities in close and apprenticeships, although the alone, new partnerships were
proximity to projects. Maximising the industry could develop faster with the announced to domesticate the
economic growth potential of offshore right enabling policies. More detailed production of nacelles, wind turbine
wind has required a collaborative cases on the UK, Denmark and blades and the first Taiwan-built
approach between government Germany are presented below. offshore wind installation vessel, the
and industry. This approach aims to Green Jade.
upgrade market design, set clear Despite being an emerging offshore
long-term capacity targets, undertake wind market, Taiwan has already
forward-planning in infrastructure
and interconnections as well as
deliver collective investment in skilled People:
Ideas:
Skills; Workforce
workforces and a local supply chain. System Management and
data; Diversity in
Optimisation Task Group
workforce; Health and
Important insights can be gained (SMOTG); RD&D; UK Business Safety; Knowledge;
from the experience of leading Intellectual Property Environment: RD&D workforce;
European offshore wind markets, Increase UK Supply Apprenticeship
which demonstrate the opportunities Chain and export;
Increase UK Content in
and potential barriers for fostering the capital expenditure
industrial development in the offshore Infrastructure: phase; Improve
Places:
wind sector. The UK’s “Offshore Cumulative infrastructure access for SMEs
Coordinate to Bolster
Wind Sector Deal” emphasises high investment of over
regional clusters
£40bn to 2030;
ambition, industrial clustering and
Collaborate for
government support and dialogue integrated energy system
with industry. Denmark, with first-
mover status in the wind industry,
has fostered an advanced supply
GWEC.NET 37
Case Study: UK Sector Deal steers industrial growth
The trajectory of the UK’s offshore economy and public. As a result hubs in the UK to de-bottleneck
wind sector is guided by the of strong collaboration between capacity constraints, allowing
Industrial Strategy Offshore Wind government and industry, the first-of- them to deliver large volumes
Sector Deal, published in March its-kind integrated approach to sector while meeting non-binding local
2019. The document outlines the development is built on five pillars: content requirements in this deal. In
target to reach 30 GW of offshore ideas, people, infrastructure, business partnershop with the government,
wind capacity by 2030, which was environment and places (see figure the offshore wind sector supported
extended to an ambitious 40 GW below). 7,200[6] full-time equivalent jobs in
by the end of 2019 by the incoming communities around the country
government, and a roadmap for Scale has been key to successful between 2014-2018. Through
delivering benefits to the UK localisation in the Sector Deal. Top manufacturing hub, SGRE’s wind
OEMs have invested in manufacturing turbine blade factory works created
1,000 jobs in 2016 at Hull, while in
Cumulative jobs in the UK offshore wind sector 2018 MHI Vestas employed 1,100
new employees for its expanded
Specialist Transport Construction & Installation Decommissioning/Repowering wind turbine blade factory at Isle of
Operation & Maintenance Specialist Support Services & Other Wight.[7]
Manufacture & Design Site planning & Development
As a result of strong collaboration
between government and industry,
40000
36,000 700 the first-of-its-kind integrated
35000 approach to sector development is
30000 27,400 10,000 built on five pillars: ideas, people,
500
25000
400 infrastructure, business environment
18,500
400
8,300 and places.
20000 300
8,300
The Danish wind cluster has today offers around 30,000 jobs employment all across Denmark.
become a world-leading example and is responsible for 4 percent of Wind industry exports accounted for
of industrial growth fostered by Denmark’s GDP. nearly 4% of total exports in Denmark
long-term political commitment to in 2017.
wind energy. Following the global Since landscarcity became a problem
energy crisis in the 1970s, Denmark in Denmark, local developers started However, the successful story of
pivoted to wind power with early building offshore wind farms from Danish wind industry doesn’t stop
subsidies of equipment, and later a 1991. The liberalisation of the energy there. With a net-zero emissions
feed-in-tariff. It is now home to top market led to the creation of the commitment by 2050, the Danish
turbine manufacturers, top offshore modern DONG Energy. Following the government has set a target to install
wind farm developer, excellent R&D divestment of its oil and gas business at least 2.4 GW across three new
facilities and strong industrial cluster in 2017 to focus 100% on green offshore wind farms by 2030.[8] In June
collaboration. energy, the world’s largest offshore 2020, the Danish parliament approved
wind farm owner-operator changed an ambitious new climate act that
Apart from subsidies on price, the the name from Danish Oil and Natural includes building two energy islands,
government also supported the Gas (DONG) to Ørsted. one in the North Sea and another in
sector by investing in R&D. The test the capacity will
and certification center for turbines As the world’s largest offshore wind be added before
funded by the state were opened port, Esbjerg in western Denmark is Baltic Sea, with a combined capacity 2030. In total, Denmark has mapped
by Risoe National Laboratory, which a hub for offshore wind exports, with of 5 GW, and installing another 1 GW out areas suitable for development
has become a part of the Danish turbines leaving the port for offshore offshore wind farm, the second of of up to 18 GW of offshore wind
Technical University (DTU) since wind farms in the UK, Germany, and the three 1 GW offshore wind farms capacity. Guided by these targets,
2008. These early R&D investments Netherlands. To further support the proposed in the Energy Agreement the government estimates that up
formed the bedrock for companies domestic and regional offshore wind 2018. As the world’s first energy to 2,200 temporary jobs and 550
like Vestas and Siemens Wind Power project development, other Danish island, it will connect offshore wind permanent jobs could be created on
(now Siemens Gamesa Renewable ports like Grenaa, Roenne and Hvide and host electricity storage and an annual basis up to 2030.[9]
Energy). More than 500 suppliers Sande have expanded either to Power-to-X (excess electricity will
are present within the current Danish support offshore project construction be converted into green hydrogen
wind cluster, spanning the whole or to serve as project O&M base. The and processed into fuels for aircrafts,
value chain from lightning tests to Danish wind sector is a powerhouse trucks, ships and heating). It is
foundation manufacturing. The cluster for the Danish economy and creates expected that 7 GW of new offshore
[8] https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Vindenergi/offshore_wind_tendet_thor_marketing.pdf
[9] https://www.groennejob.dk/nyheder-fra-groenne-job/groenne-job.
GWEC.NET 39
Danish wind cluster (and ports), mapping of offshore wind development
Hvide
Nordsøen III
Sande
Hesselø
Nordsøen II Grenaa
Vest Nordsøen II+III
Mid-Jutland: Heart of
Nordsøen I
Danish Wind Cluster
Roenne
Leading
offshore
Krigers Flak Nord
port-Esbjerg
Bornholm I
Krigers Flak Syd
Bornholm II
Although its onshore wind market happen by the end of 2019, it was not ports such as Bremerhaven and
been rocky, Germany’s offshore implemented.[11] Cuxhaven on the North Sea hosting
wind market holds strong promise large turbine manufacturing facilities,
and has already delivered 7.5 GW Finally in June 2020, the Federal foundation systems and shipyards for
of capacity. The sector employs Ministry of Economy and Energy offshore wind services. Jobs have also
around 27,000 people, fosters EUR drafted a bill outlining a target of been created across the value chain
9 billion in annual turnover and has 20 GW by 2030, which would then in inland cities, for the manufacturing
attracted a cumulative EUR 25 billion double to 40 GW by 2040.[12] The of bearings, gearboxes, generators
in investment over the last 20 years.[10] bill followed agreements by federal and other components. To deliver
It is also a pillar of the country’s and state authorities, as well as the industrial development potential
energy transition and plan to create a Transmission System Operators ahead, the government must remain
hydrogen economy. (TSOs) to better capitalise on steadfast in its new offshore wind
Germany’s offshore wind resource commitments, and implement a
Key to signalling strong public potential and address related grid sensible procurement scheme that
commitment to growing the offshore needs. But it also introduced a two- can sustain investments in the local
sector is policy stability. The German round tendering process designed supply chain.
government has amended its sector to drive bid prices down, which
development goals twice in the past: could exert additional pressure on
It initially outlined 10 GW by 2020 an already strained domestic supply
and 25 GW by 2030 in its Renewable chain.
Energy Sources Act (EEG), but
reduced these targets to 6.5 GW Growth of Germany’s offshore wind
and 15 GW, respectively, in 2014, sector at the scale of 40 GW by
due to the high prices of the early 2040 could potentially address the
offshore wind sector. As offshore capital and labour displacement
costs declined dramatically, pressure experienced in its struggling onshore
increased on the government to wind sector. Offshore wind has
raise its targets; while public sector already brought large benefits to
representatives indicated this would coastal regions in Germany, with
GWEC.NET 41
c. Grid Connection
The expansion of the global of the additional capacity required, Equinor’s floating Hywind Tampen
offshore wind market presents a WindEurope estimates that 380 GW project, for instance, will be located
formidable challenge to electricity of offshore wind could be developed 140 kilometres off the Norwegian
grids, requiring forward-planning in the North Sea region alone, coast – major investments, planning
for transmission infrastructure and and would need to be integrated capacity and expertise are needed to
interconnections, grid-fault and into mainland grids, in order to ensure reliable and expeditious grid
stability analysis, priority dispatch achieve climate neutrality targets connections.
for renewables and a flexible set by the European Commission.[13]
system to integrate large volumes of With more and larger wind farms Offshore wind grid connection
renewable energy. As an indication expanding farther into the sea – normally consists of two parts: 1.)
offshore wind turbines are connected
via 33 or 66 kV inter-array cables
Grid connection responsiblity in different offshore wind markets to an offshore AC substation, and
2.) then the AC offshore substation
33 or 66 kV inter-array cables
is connected via a 132-220 kV
220 kV HVAC cables
HVAC export cable with an onshore
Existing onshore grid
substation, from where electricity
Offshore High voltage grid to be connected to the mainland
substation AC
Substation
grid[14]. The scope of responsibility
for these connections, and up to
Dunes Extension
what point, varies between markets
Land cable High voltage grid
and falls either to the transmission
Inter-array cables Sea cable
system operator (TSO) or the project
developer.
Offshore wind farm Connection between offshore AC substation and onshore grid Existing onshore grid
[13] https://windeurope.org/about-wind/reports/our-
energy-our-future/
Denmark [14] The transmission system has two types: AC and
Germany DC. HVAC is generally employed for shorter
Netherlands Denmark (from 2018) distances, while HVDC connections are generally
Belgium (From 2018) The UK employed for longer distances to the main grid. In
France (Round-3, 2019) Belgium (2011, 2013) the German North Sea, for example, many offshore
US
wind farms are first connected with an offshore
AC substation and then the offshore AC substation
France (Round-1, 2)
can be connected to grid at shore through HVDC
Taiwan converter station and HVDC cables.
Mainland China
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, TenneT
[15] https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Vindenergi/brief_tender_for_thor_offshore_wind_farm_30march2019.pdf
[16] Energinet will remain responsible for the financing and construction of the onshore substation to the transmission
grid.
[17] Developers can either take responsibility for construction of the offshore transmission assets before transferring
them to a third-party operator, or commission a third-party operator to construct the assets. To date, the de facto
model has been for project developers to be responsible for financing, development and construction of the
transmission assets. The developer’s CAPEX costs for transmission assets would be recovered through payments
from the operator of the assets after completion; the operator in turn receives revenue from the grid authority for
operation, maintenance and decommissioning of these assets.
GWEC.NET 43
A 2019 study by DIW Econ, guidance that a model should
commissioned by Ørsted, found prioritise time and cost-efficiency
that the UK market design, where without burdening the economics of
development of grid connection the tendering process for offshore
is included within a competitive wind – particularly as cost reduction
tender, reduces overall costs of the potential for grid connections is
transmission assets.[18] A model lower than that for offshore wind
integrating grid connection into technology.[20]
the overall project tender also
incentivises cost reduction and Transmission is a vital part of the
allows for synergies in planning and sector’s development, ensuring that
construction between the offshore communities benefit from a secure
wind farm and transmission system. and reliable supply of power from
offshore wind. Given its centrality
These findings can be considered to the growth of offshore wind,
alongside another study by Navigant grid connection must be carefully
in 2019, wherein analysis of data considered by policymakers in the
from the UK, Denmark, France and context of local market design and
the Netherlands found that making cost/investment dynamics. Whether
the TSO responsible resulted in integrated into a capacity tender or
lower CAPEX/MW of installed grid shouldered by the TSO, the risks and
connections, as well as lower costs costs for grid buildout should be
for cables and onshore substations adequately organised in a way that
(although costs for offshore platforms will not dampen the investment case
are generally comparable).[19] for offshore wind or slow down its
deployment.
Each market has its own distinct
policy, consenting and fiscal
characteristics. There is no
universal model for grid connection
responsibility, but rather general
[18] Construction and then operation of the offshore transmission assets are competitively tendered in the UK.
[19] https://guidehouse.com/-/media/www/site/downloads/energy/2019/2019-navigant-comparison-offshore-
grid-development.pdf
[20] https://guidehouse.com/-/media/www/site/downloads/energy/2019/2019-navigant-comparison-offshore-
grid-development.pdf
Methodology: BNEF LCOE scope for offshore wind farms includes all transmission costs up to the project’s onshore
substation, which is also included. The outlook from 2020-2025 is a fitted curve best reflecting future levelized auctions
bids (it mixes auctions including and excluding the cost of transmission to shore).
Source: BNEF LCOE Database Jan 2020, GWEC Market Intelligence
GWEC.NET 45
is set to continue and expected to hit content requirements (LCRs) – growing industry. The offshore wind
US$58/MWh by 2025 thanks to the regulatory provisions on how much of industry in France is an example of
scale provided by GW-level projects, a wind project must be manufactured this.
the newly introduced supersized locally.
offshore wind turbines and the Overall, to drive cost reduction with
reduction in the cost of capital. While on the one hand, an inward- a strong supply chain demands high
looking perspective sees LCR as a commitment from governments and
Recent auction results show that means to maximise local job creation the industry. The UK offshore wind
offshore wind has become already and economic prosperity, on the industry is a success story of global
competitive in some mature European other hand, an outward-looking reach which has created jobs and
markets (for example, zero-subsidy view, sees LCR as an instrument economic growth, as well as billions
auctions completed in Germany and to drive down costs and facilitate in export value.
the Netherlands) and is on the cusp domestic companies’ integration into
of competitiveness even in some less international supply chains.
mature markets (notably France).
Experience in Europe has proven
From an industry life-cycle that strict local content requirements
perspective, the current stage of frustrate economic hopes of wind
offshore wind can be classified as the industry players by raising the cost
growth phase, to accelerate further of electricity and creates inefficiency
cost reduction and eventually become by enforcing local suppliers to play a
completely subsidy free, a strong much bigger role during the take-off
project pipeline, long-term visibility, of the offshore deployment in many
and a well-managed global supply new and emerging markets.
chain that increases competition and
capacity will all be paramount to the For an industry such as offshore wind
growth of the wind industry as well as that naturally offers a high degree
technology-based innovation. of localisation due to the large size
of components, such as blades and
Conflicting paradigms of development towers, and complicated and costly
logistics, overly restrictive local
Concurrent to driving down LCoE, content requirements are not justified.
driven by political motivations to Overly restrictive requirements can
justify financial support, the wind be counter-productive to the original
industry is challenged by local intention and ultimately, slow down a
The UK has exemplified that with 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
an increased market certainty and
volume visibility, scale is one of the Aggregated UK content in 48%
43%
keys that support competition and TOTEX of wind projects
innovation in the supply chain to drive LCOE refers to projects signed during the given year, but not the LCOE of the installed volume: time lag between project signature
and installation is 4-5 years
competitiveness and reduce costs. Source: GWEC, BNEF H2 2018 Wind LCOE Update, BVG Associates, Renewable UK, Press, UK Office for National Statistics.
In retrospect, the cost of the latest
(third) CfD round in late 2019, fell by – cheaper than new gas and nuclear market share. With that, the increasing
around 30% compared to the second power. competition in the UK offshore market
round in 2017, and has fallen as much is expected to continue to drive cost
as 66% compared to the first round With current ambitions of 40 GW reduction through downward pressure
held in 2015. Projects are now being by 2030 and meeting the net-zero on pricing and via the benefits of scale,
delivered for as low as US$50/MWh carbon emissions target by 2050, the learning and innovation combined with
making offshore wind one of the lowest UK provides a large enough market socio-economic benefits such as local
cost options for new power in the UK to attract turbine manufacturers each job creation.
with a prediction of a reasonable
GWEC.NET 47
Achievements
A fundamental issue that hampered Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Levelized price, takes into account tariff price and length, inflation, a merchant
progress was the need for tail assumption and a 25-year project lifetime. White dots represent other European markets.
GWEC.NET 49
Case Study: China – Early termination of central government support forces the local industry to reach parity
China commissioned its first As of the end of 2019, China has On 23 January 2020, the Chinese
commercial offshore project, Donghai nearly 7 GW offshore wind in total central government announced
Bridge Wind Farm, in 2010. The installations, making it the third- it would cease subsidies for
market, however, was not ready to largest offshore wind market after the offshore wind from 2022 onward,
take off until the first offshore FiT UK and Germany. Thanks to a robust albeit subsidies from provincial
scheme and the National Offshore onshore wind supply chain and rapid governments are encouraged to
Wind Development Plan (2014-2016) growth in annual installations over the provide continuity for the sector.
were released by NEA (National past three years, the offshore wind
Energy Administration) in 2014. This supply chain in China has developed Although offshore wind CAPEX has
was followed in 2016 with joint release very quickly. To date, eight Chinese been reduced by 40-50% in China
of The Management Measures for turbine OEMs have released offshore over the past decade, the current
Offshore Wind Power Development turbines greater than 5 MW, of which LCOE for the Chinese offshore
and Construction by NEA and SOA six are listed among the world’s top market is still at the level of CNY 0.64/
(State Oceanic Administration), ten offshore wind turbine suppliers in kWh (EUR 0.08/kWh), according to
aligning guidelines between various 2019. State Grid Energy Research Institute
government bodies and stakeholders.
Within less than a decade of Donghai Evolution of Chinese offshore wind support schemes
Bridge, China passed the 1 GW 0.978
(Tariff for Donghai Bridge Project)
milestone for new offshore wind 1.0
installations in 2017, surpassing the
0.80
UK as the world’s leading offshore (FiT cap for projects approved in 2019)
Liaoning
Yantai
(port in Penglai)
Shandong
Yancheng
(port in Dafeng)
Jiangsu
Naantong
(port in Rudong)
Zhejiang
Fujian
Fuzhou
GWEC.NET 51
(SGERI). In China, the parity tariff for
renewables is regulated to be set at
the same level as coal-fired power
generation, which varies by province.
At present, the tariff for electricity
generated by coal-fired power plants
in China’s coastal provinces is in the
range of CNY 0.39-0.45/kWh – at least
30% lower than the current offshore
wind LCOE.
GWEC.NET 53
e. Health and safety Forecast installations (in MW) for key markets to 2024 and associated workforce
as a key to scaling requirements
global offshore Market Forecast installations (MW) Calculated workforce requirement
wind North America 5,720 14,300
Workforce safety is paramount China (mainland) 19,000 47,500
to the success and sustainability Taiwan 3,579 8,948
of offshore wind. As the industry Japan 860 2,150
expands its footprint in established Vietnam 1,100 2,750
and emerging offshore markets,
South Korea 560 1,400
the sector’s focus is to strive for an
Total 30,819 77,048
injury-free working environment.
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, GWO and RCG
Globally recognised regimes
of safety and technical training
standards have been developed to wind in China, Japan, Vietnam, South sustainably, making offshore wind a
the extent that the industry today Korea, Taiwan and the United States sector of choice.
can call upon almost 100,000 people presents a huge opportunity for the
industry to collaborate with owners Successes have been possible
trained to GWO standards in 40+
and primary contractors, policy through a commitment to
countries, around a third of whom
makers and wind energy associations collaboration and transparency.
are trained to work safely in offshore
to deploy established regimes that GWO standards have achieved
wind.
already work well in existing markets. almost universal acceptance in
In the recent report co-authored many established offshore wind
by Global Wind Organisation The goal is to support the safety markets, and as it grows into new
and the Global Wind Energy profile and working cultures in these markets, the industry is mindful of
Council Powering the Future – countries to help scale the industry existing systems of health and safety,
Global Offshore Wind Workforce
Outlook, six emerging markets
are forecasting over 31GW of new The industry today can call upon almost
installations between 2020-2024,
with an associated need for over 100,000 people trained to GWO standards in
77,000 trained workers (see table). 40+ countries
This imminent expansion of offshore
GWEC.NET 55
Part 2. Emerging markets
Taiwan
Taiwan is heating up as the second- GW tranche was procured across a much volume will be allocated and to submarine cables to shipbuilding.
largest offshore wind market in the selection round and auction, the next when, is due to be published by end The industry must balance growth
Asia-Pacific region, after Mainland 10 GW (termed Round 3) will likely of this year, with the first phase of with local content requirements that
China. Ambitious capacity targets be conducted across two phases; the allocation conducted from Q2 2021 to are expected to be higher in Round
set by the DPP government have first phase (2026-2030) will prioritise Q2 2023. 3. In 2020, positive signs have already
attracted eager interest from leading projects at water depth of less than 50 been marked by announcements
offshore wind developers and metres. Critical to the steady progression of for an MHI Vestas-Tien Li blade
technology providers. Already, 128 the market will be the government’s manufacturing facility in Taichung,
MW of offshore capacity has been Following government delays due localisation strategy, which aims to an SGRE nacelle production facility
installed at Formosa 1, Taiwan’s first to COVID-19, a draft version of the consolidate the entire supply chain in Taichung and CDWE’s work on
commercial-scale offshore wind farm Round 3 framework, including how in Taiwan, from turbine components
in Miaoli County, and a further 109
MW is due to come online from the
Progression of Taiwan’s wind procurement mechanisms
Changhua County project by the end
of 2020. Round 3: Phase 2 (TBC)
• Auction for 5 GW
Offshore wind is a key component • 1 GW/year COD
of Taiwan’s green economy vision, Round 3: Phase 1 2031-2035
(2021-2023)
which charts a nuclear-free pathway • Three annual auctions
to generate 20% of electricity through for 5 GW total
Round 2 (2018)
renewable energy by 2025. The • Auction process • Priority to projects with
government is aiming to install 5.7 allocated 1,664 MW EIA and at <50m water
Round 1 (2018) • COD 2020-2025 depth
GW of offshore wind by 2025, and
• Selection process • 1 GW/year COD
in late 2019 announced that it would allocated 3,836 MW 2026-2030
double its ambitions to 10 GW over • COD 2020-2025
the 2026-2035 period. While the 5.7
3,836 MW 1,664 MW 5 GW 5 GW
10667
9667
8667
7667
6667
5667
3707
3357
2607
1707
128 237
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
the first Taiwan-built offshore wind promotion plan and a relatively open
installation vessel. But how flexible investment environment. Limited land
the localisation requirements are in space and high energy insecurity
the forthcoming Round 3 framework further compels Taiwan to look to
will be key to determining whether coastal zones for power production.
the nascent offshore wind industry
can develop into a sustainable and Power sector reform is also on the
competitive market. horizon, with amendments in 2017
to the Electricity Business Act which
Within the next decade, Taiwan will mandated the unbundling of utility
achieve more than 10 GW of installed Taipower’s generation, transmission
offshore wind capacity, becoming and distribution business, and the
an experienced market with an liberalisation of the electricity market
established domestic supply chain. to enable multiple business models
The sector is supported by a Feed- for direct procurement of renewable
in-Tariff, a four-year wind power energy.
GWEC.NET 59
three promising areas nominated
for FY2019, were nominated as the Japanese offshore auction progress list
zones for promotion of offshore
Stage of progess Round1 (FY2019) Round2 (FY2020)
wind on 21 July 2020. Of these areas,
Initial (July 2019) Progress (July 2020) Initial (July 2020)
Yurihonjo area in Akita has been
divided into two areas, Yurihonjo Promotion Japan Sea side North, Aomori Gann-u and Minami- Shiribeshi, Hokkaido
North and Yurihonjo South, to promote zones Japan Sea side South, Aomori Hiyama, Hokkaido
Mutsu bay, Aomori Happou-cho Mutsu bay, Aomori
competition. & Noshiro, Akita Kisakata, Akita Kisakata, Akita-city, Akita
Murakami & Tainai, Niigata Yusa, Yamagata
Furthermore, METI & MLIT Enoshima Saikai-city, Nagasaki Murakami & Tainai, Niigata
announced the second nomination
Promising Noshiro, Akita Japan Sea side North, Aomori
of 10 offshore wind promotion zones areas Yurihonjo, Akita Japan Sea side South, Aomori
in July 2020 for FY2020. Four of Choshi, Chiba Happou-cho & Noshiro, Akita
these zones (Aomori Japan Seaside Enoshima Saikai-city, Nagasaki
North, Aomori Japan Seaside North Official Goto, Nagasaki Noshiro, Akita
South, Happou and Noshiro in Akita, promotion Yurihonjo North, Akita
Saikai in Nagasaki) have been newly areas Yurihonjo South, Akita
Choshi, Chiba
nominated as promising areas.
Areas with auction Goto, Nagasaki
The progress that Japanese offshore already launched
wind development has made in the
Source: JWPA, July 2020
past 12 months is summarised in the
table below.
of the country’s annual electricity the country’s energy strategy would
Offshore wind in Japan’s long-term production. This situation, however, prioritise decarbonisation over the
energy strategy is expected to change gradually. The current “energy mix” plan (fossil,
trends of global energy transition nuclear and renewables). This change
Japan has hesitated to announce and decarbonisation have made will be reflected at the next “Japanese
a long-term offshore wind target the Japanese government change long-term energy vision” revised in
because the METI still maintains its their future energy plan. METI’s 2021 (it is revised every three years).
commitments with the nuclear and minister Hiroshi Kajiyama recently As coal-fired generation supplies
coal industries. The official wind declared the closure of 100 old & low about one-third of Japan’s electricity,
power target in Japan is only 10 GW performance coal-fired power plants renewable energy and particularly
by 2030, including both onshore by 2030 (out of 140 existing coal-fired offshore wind is expected to play a
and offshore, representing 1.7% power plants) and announced that big role to fill the gap.
GWEC.NET 61
Kyushu Electric Power Co, J Power GE Renewable Energy and others to Conclusion
and Tokyo Gas Co. also signed move in.
the partnership with RWE, Engie 2020 is expected to be an important
and Principle Power respectively In March 2020, MHI Vestas gained year for Japan’s offshore wind sector,
with the focus on the offshore its first firm order in Japan, to with the launch of the first wave
development. supply turbines to the 139 MW of commercial projects and the
Akita Noshiro offshore wind announcement of the framework for
Local and international suppliers are project owned by a Marubeni- further tenders.
also entering the offshore wind value controlled subsidiary, while in
chain. For example, Tokyo-based November 2019, it signed a
Penta Ocean took delivery of Japan’s preferred supplier agreement to
first jack-up offshore wind turbine supply its V174-9.5 MW turbines
installation vessel (OWTIV) in 2019, to the 220 MW Hibikinada offshore
while another three OWTIVs are wind farm. In April 2020, MHI
expected to be delivered in 2022 by Vestas was selected to supply
local companies including Shimizu, turbines for the 700 MW Akita
Kajimay, Yorigami, Obayashi and Yurihonjo project, one of the
Toa. International-local partnerships, largest offshore wind farms
such as Van Oord/NYK and Northern planned in Japan.
Offshore Group/NYK, have been
established to capitalize on the
emerging opportunities in foundation
and turbine installation and wind farm
operation. However, the government MHI Vestas gained its first firm order in Japan,
may need to find a new strategy
to revive its local offshore turbine
to supply turbines to the 139 MW Akita Noshiro
manufacturing industry as two local offshore wind project owned by a Marubeni-
turbine OEMs, Japan Steel Works
(JSW) and Hitachi, have discontinued controlled subsidiary, while in November 2019,
turbine production in recent years; it signed a preferred supplier agreement to
this could leave room for MHI Vestas
(a joint venture between Mitsubishi supply its V174-9.5 MW turbines to the 220
Heavy Industries and Vestas), SGRE,
MW Hibikinada offshore wind farm.
Nearly a decade ago, South Korea As a result, South Korea’s initial foray
adopted an ambitious Green into “green growth” and a clean
Growth Strategy that aimed to energy transition saw little translation
reduce greenhouse gas emissions into action for the better part of the
by 30% by 2020. This strategy last decade.
marked the beginning of “green
South Korea prepares to push the
growth” as the direction of travel
reset button on offshore wind
for South Korea’s economic growth,
sparking the interest of domestic Nonetheless, at the start of a new
industrial conglomerates (such as decade, the momentum for offshore
Samsung, Hyundai, Doosan and wind in South Korea is picking up
STX) in renewable energy project with the passage of President Moon
development and equipment supply. Jae-in’s Green New Deal and a
groundswell of interest from ambitious
Following a 2.0 MW STX direct
consortia of local and international
drive offshore turbine and a 3.0 MW
wind energy developers.
Doosan geared drive turbine installed
in early 2010s’ for testing purpose, 1. Policy support
the 30 MW Tamra offshore wind
farm came online off Geumdeung-ri Growth in modern South Korea is
in Jeju Island in 2016. However, the built upon energy-intensive industries
sector has been generally slow to such as electronics, automotive and
take off, due to public opposition on shipbuilding, many of which are
environmental and livelihood (fishing) difficult to decarbonise. As such, the
issues. Long permitting periods and nation is still embroiled in public
GWEC.NET 63
by 2030 (currently around 6%) and South Korea also has its own wind
to increase that share to 30-35% turbine manufacturers. Of these,
Over 12 GW of new offshore wind capacity
by 2040. Given insufficient land Doosan has the longest track record
needs to be installed to reach the country’s 2030 available for onshore wind and low in offshore wind with 96 MW installed,
solar radiation, attention has moved and is expanding its products line-up
renewable energy target. offshore. Over 12 GW of new offshore to 8 MW platform from the current 3
wind capacity needs to be installed to MW and 5 MW models. In addition,
reach the country’s goals. local turbine suppliers Unison and
debates over its commitment to coal, Hyosung are seeking opportunities in
gas and nuclear power, imposing 2. Strong local industrial base offshore developments.
a drag on the transition to cleaner
South Korea’s industrial experience in A strong locally supply chain
and more secure renewable energy
steel, shipbuilding and logistics could also exists for forging, with local
sources.
translate to competencies in offshore companies Hyundai Forging, Hyunjin
Now, with President Moon in office engineering and supply chain Materials, Kofco and Taewoong,
and the re-election of the Democratic efficiencies, smoothing the pathway to as well as slewing bearings
Party in 2020, South Korea can press developing a localised offshore wind manufacturers Shilla and CS Bearing,
ahead with its newly adopted Green industry. already exporting products to
New Deal. To boost the green sector, overseas offshore markets.
For instance, its marine and offshore
South Korea plans to invest a total of
industry will play a critical role 3. International partnerships
12.9 trillion won (US$10.8 billion) in
fabricating offshore wind jacket
green buildings, urban forests and
foundations, with local shipyard Leading international offshore players
low-carbon energy production by
company Samkang already delivering have recognised the potential for
2022 and create 133,000 jobs in the
jacket foundations to the Changhua offshore wind (particularly floating
process. Under this plan, South Korea
Demonstration project in Taiwan. offshore) in South Korea and are
has become the first country in East
South Korea also has the advantage piling into the market.
Asia to pledge to reach net-zero
of high R&D intensity in shipbuilding
emissions by 2050. Early last year, the port city of Ulsan
and cabling, allowing Samsung
and Hyundai to build offshore wind signed an MOU with four domestic
Through its Third Energy Plan,
installation vessels and local company and foreign partners and investors
released in June 2019, South Korea’s
LS Cable & System to manufacture (including Royal Dutch Shell and
“Renewable Energy 3020” target for
offshore cables for markets in Europe CoensHexicon, South Korea’s energy
20% of total electricity consumption
and the US. company SK E&S and Denmark’s
to come from renewable energy
Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners,
Gunsan offshore wind power demonstration (3/1) Korea Electric Power Research Institute
Saemangeum offshore wind power (98.8) Saemangeum Offshore Wind Power
Apae Wind power1,2 (60) Apaepungnyeokbaljeon Tongyeong Socho Wind Power (9.9) Yeongdongbaljeon
Maewol offshore wind power (96) Maewol offshore wind power
Yokji Offshore Wind Power (352/64) Hanguk Baljeon Gaebal
Sinan Jeungdo Wind Power (33.0) Win Wind Power
Shinan Wuyi Offshore Wind Power (396.8) Hanwha E&C/ KOENERGY /SK D&D Wando Offshore Wind Power (148.5/27) IWEST
Shinan Offshore Wind Power (300/47)POSCO Energy/ KOENERGY Geumil offshore wind power (200/25) KOENERGY / Cheonghae Remikon
Hallim Offshore Wind Power (100) KEPCO/KEPCO E&C/KOMIPO/Daelim Industry/Baram Woljeong/Hangwon Offshore Wind Power (125) investment planned
Daejeong Offshore Wind Power (100) KOSPO/Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction
Pyoseon Offshore Wind Power (135) / investment planned
[1] http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ This map is printed using the Global Wind Atlas online application website (v.3.0) owned by the Technical University of Denmark. For more information and terms of use, please visit https://globalwindatlas.info
Map obtained from the Global Wind Atlas 3.0, a free, web-based application developed, owned and operated by the Technical University
en/716891572457609829/pdf/Going-Global- of Denmark (DTU). The Global Wind Atlas 3.0 is released in partnership with the World Bank Group, utilizing data provided by Vortex, using
Expanding-Offshore-Wind-To-Emerging-Markets.pdf funding provided by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). For additional information: : https://globalwindatlas.info
GWEC.NET 67
prioritise clean energy sources. Despite the ambition for Promising developments for PDP 8
Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW, published decarbonisation and attractive
in February 2020, outlines measures resource potential, pursuing a least- PDP 8, expected by the end of 2020,
to liberalise the energy sector cost transformation of the energy will outline a two-year extension to
and reduce the share of coal-fired system will require transparent the current FiT framework for offshore
generation in the power mix. policy, streamlined administration wind, as well as higher capacity
and a flexible grid. The lack of policy targets out to 2030. In April 2020,
Just last month, the government differentiation between onshore, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of
formally approved a list of 91 nearshore and large-scale offshore Vietnam (MOIT) officially proposed
additional wind projects totalling 7 wind projects of Vietnam is holding an extension of the FiT mechanism for
GW,[2] on top of the 4.8 GW of planned the sector back. PDP 8 is expected wind projects from 1 November 2021
wind capacity (78 projects) already to deliver more concrete policy to 31 December 2023. By 2024, the
approved under the current master frameworks for large-scale offshore government is planning to transition
plan. Projects in operation (377 MW) wind developments, including zoning, wind procurement to an auction
and those with power purchase marine spatial planning, and ports system.
contracts with EVN (1,662 MW) are infrastructures plans and permitting
excluded from the figures above. All This development followed policy
processes. A key issue will be the
of these puts Vietnam on track for a engagement with GWEC Asia,
design challenges for grid upgrades,
total wind power generation capacity which highlighted the supply chain
and whether public or private bodies
of nearly 14 GW latest by 2030. disruptions, labour shortages and
will be responsible for investments
construction delays brought by the
in grid connections and transmission
The added wind capacity is viewed Covid-19 outbreak, as well as the
infrastructure.
as necessary to plug the power permitting delays to several wind
shortage left by delayed coal plants, projects which made it unfeasible
which may not come online until
2023. While Vietnam remains a net
coal importer for now, the declining
economics of new coal generation
vis-à-vis wind and solar power The government formally approved a list of 91
are driving the shift to utility-scale additional wind projects totalling 7 GW, on top of
renewable generation.
the 4.8 GW of planned wind capacity (78 projects)
already approved under the current master plan.
[2] https://tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn/dau-tu/danh-
tinh-91-du-an-dien-gio-vua-duoc-bo-sung-quy-hoach-
dien-333024.html
GWEC.NET 69
US
East Coast offshore wind project and lease areas
The US offshore wind market has and natural gas. Since the regulations
picked up strong momentum since were enacted, BOEM has issued 16
the 30 MW Block Island Wind Project commercial offshore wind energy
came online in Rhode Island in leases, including three commercial
NY
December 2016. Despite a complex leases in 2019. In total the 16 offshore MA
regulatory scene with differing rules wind leases could support more CT
RI
across the offshore states, large-scale than 21 GW of generating capacity. Bay State Wind
Revolution Wind (704MW)
projects are advancing and developer BOEM is now in the planning stages
Vineyard Wind (800MW)
appetite has been at fever pitch. And for leasing areas off the coast of New PA South Fork Wind Farm
(130MW)
with technical resource potential for York, South Carolina, California and
Sunrise Wind (880MW)
Park CIty (804MW)
US offshore wind exceeding 2,000 Hawaii and expects to hold two lease Equinor
Mayflower Wind (804MW)
GW, there is vast room to grow. sales in 2020, one in the Atlantic in the
NJ Empire Wind (816MW)
New York Bight and one in the Pacific
Regulatory progress at both federal off California.
and state levels
Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind
The issuance of leases and
On the federal level, the Bureau subsequent review of energy
Ocean Wind (1,100 MW)
DE
of Ocean Energy Management development activities on the Ørsted, PSEG
(BOEM) is responsible for managing OCS is a staged decision-making MD
Skipjack Wind Farm (120MW)
MarWin (269MW)
development of offshore resources process. BOEM’s renewable energy
in federal waters. In 2009, the authorization process is comprised
Department of the Interior (DOI) of four distinct phases (Figure 2). The
announced final regulations for lease does not provide the lessee the
Unnamed Dominion Energy Project (2,640MW)
the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) right to construct particular facilities; VA
Renewable Energy Program, which rather, the lease provides the right Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (12MW)
provides a framework for issuing to use the leased area to develop
Avangrid Renewables
leases, easements, and rights-of- its site assessment and construction NC
way for OCS activities that support and operations plans, which must be
production and transmission of approved by BOEM before the lessee
energy from sources other than oil can move on to the next stage of the Source: BOEM, AWEA, January 2020
process. On the last phase, BOEM Connecticut, Massachusetts, New and Virginia together with the 2030 through state-issued solicitations,
conducts environmental and technical York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, offshore wind targets released in which are the calls for proposals from
reviews of the plan submitted by Virginia and North Carolina is Connecticut and Maryland have offshore wind developers to deliver
project developers and decides driving strong demand for offshore brought the country’s total offshore offshore wind energy to an state.
whether to approve, approve with wind energy. To date, more than wind procurement targets from 9.1 The top four states by total volume
modification or disapprove. At the 10 states have offshore projects in GW in 2018 to 28.1 GW in 2020 (see of solicitations are: New York (1,696
end of lease, project developers must development, of which six states have figure on page 17 on Global Market MW), Massachusetts (1,604 MW),
decommission facilities in compliance offshore wind procurement targets Outlook section). Connecticut (1,108 MW) and New
with BOEM regulations. through either legislation, conditional Jersey (1,100 MW). The state-level
targets or executive orders. The According to AWEA, as of June solicitations are expected to continue
On the state level, the East recently increased offshore wind 2020, six states had selected nearly in 2020.
Coast cluster consisting of Maine, targets in New York, New Jersey 6,300 MW of offshore wind projects
GWEC.NET 71
Developers expect 15 offshore wind projects,
totalling 10,603 MW, to be commissioned by
2026.
In January 2020, New York State ownership, more than 70% of the
Energy Research and Development capacity to be delivered by 2026 is
Authority (NYSERDA) filed a petition controlled by European developers,
with state regulators to initiate a of which Ørsted is taking the lead
regulatory proceeding for the (2.5 GW). The Danish utility is closely
authorization of a second large- followed by Avangrid Renewables, a
scale solicitation for at least 1 GW subsidiary of Spain’s Iberdrola (2.3
of offshore wind. Developers expect GW), Equinor (816 MW), CIP (804
15 offshore wind projects, totalling MW), EDPR (402 MW) and Shell (402
10,603 MW, to be commissioned by MW).
2026.
Market ready to take off from 2024
According to AWEA, as of April 2020 with European suppliers dominated
the US offshore wind pipeline totalled the current pipeline
more than 26 GW in federal lease
areas issued to date. According to Although the 12 MW Dominion
GWEC Market Intelligence, out of Virginia demo project was
this pipeline, developers expect successfully installed in June
15 offshore wind projects, totalling 2020, compared to GWEC Market
10,603 MW, to be commissioned Intelligence’s pre-COVID outlook,
by 2026. Out of the 10,603 MW of the combination of prolonged lead
offshore wind capacity, 25% is likely time to secure federal permits and
to be built in Virginia, followed by the effects of the COVID-19 health
New York (17.2%), Massachusetts crisis has caused delays for projects
(15.2%), North Carolina (14.0%), previously scheduled for commission
Connecticut (10.5%) and New Jersey in 2022 and 2023. Thus, we have
(10.4%). With regards to the project
GWEC.NET 73
France
With a total 16.6GW of installed 496MW Saint-Brieuc project in 2023. target of 5.2-6.2GW installed offshore
onshore wind capacity, and a solitary Projects from Tender II are still waiting wind capacity by 2028. Taking it one
2MW pilot floating turbine spinning, to be cleared and expected to be step further, the revised Multiannual
France is undoubtedly late to the commissioned in 2023/2024. Energy Programme (Programmation
offshore wind boom when compared pluriannuelle de l’énergie, or PPE)
to its European neighbours. The In France’s third offshore wind auction raised its target to put up to 8.75
first wave of French offshore wind in 2019, an EDF-Innogy-Enbridge GW of offshore wind capacity out to
projects was auctioned in 2012 consortium won the right to develop
(1.9GW allocated) and 2014 (1 GW a 600MW offshore project off Dunkirk
French offshore wind projects
allocated), but public opposition with a winning bid of EUR44/MWh.
and project delays linked to fishing This particular tender featured a Dunkirk
industry, aviation and national security number of regulatory changes that Le
concerns stalled progress for years. facilitated competitive bidding, Tr éport
This was followed by retroactive tariffs faster project developments and low F écamp
bid prices. Dropping local content Courseulles - sur - Mer
cuts in line with the rapid decline
in offshore wind prices since the requirements, shifting transmission Saint- Brieuc
auctions. cost to the Transmission System
Operator (TSO) and pre-tender
The reboot of the French offshore public participation all contributed to
Groix
wind industry producing a successful procurement Floatgen Tender I
round, securing prices 69% cheaper Saint- Nazaire Tender II
Nonetheless, at the start of this new than previous French tenders.
decade, France’s offshore wind sector Yeu - Noirmoutier Tender III
is finally advancing. Backlogged Following the third tender, the French Floating tender I
projects from Tender 1 have resolved government is committing strongly Floating tender II
their permitting disputes, clearing to both onshore and offshore wind. In
Faraman Demonstration
the path to financial closure. These April 2020, France’s 10-year National
are expected to come online by Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) Leucate
2022, starting with the 480MW Saint- was submitted to the European Gruissan
Nazaire project, followed by the Commission, setting an impressive
1000 1000
1000
1000 1000 • LM Wind Power announced plans
948 to recruit 250 employees at its
blade manufacturing facility in
Cherbourg in 2021;
500
• Prysmian secures over €150
Million (US$169m) from RTE to
25 25 59 develop two submarine and land
export power cable systems
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 to connect offshore wind farms
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
GWEC.NET 75
Part 3. Exploring new markets
GWEC.NET 77
Exploring
New
Markets
From the perspective of GWEC
Market Intelligence, it is important to
highlight the potential development
for offshore wind in newer markets.
Even if actual installations will
not happen immediately. The
five selected markets, Ireland,
Poland, Estonia, India, Australia, are
representative of markets with high
offshore wind potential but varying
political support and targets to date.
Still, in all five markets there is an
increasing awareness that offshore
wind can provide an at scale, cost-
competitive and efficient solution for
these countries.
GWEC.NET 79
OFFSHORE WIND
TECHNOLOGIES
November 2019. When the Haliade X, more costly than smaller ones, it saves 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
which was the world’s largest offshore the CAPEX for foundations, cables
* Expected average turbine size in markets outside China where average size is likely to be 7-8 MW
wind turbine model at the time, was and installation as well as the OPEX Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
released, the company stated that12 due to lower turbine units.
MW was not the end, it was the climate change targets. However,
With offshore wind power developed
beginning and will get bigger. This with wind power penetrations
from a costly alternative to a
was proven true when its competitor, increased, challenges are imposed
competitive source of energy, it is
the world’s largest offshore wind on the electricity grid due to the
expected to play a big role in the
turbine supplier in total installations, characteristics of wind. A new study
global energy transition, helping
Siemens Gamesa, released its SG14- by Berkeley Lab, however, shows
countries to reach their committed
222 DD model in May 2020. This new that in addition to the reduction in
GWEC.NET 81
levelized costs, significant increases long-term wind output uncertainty). and China (see figures on page 81- However, at what point the future
in wind turbine size can, in fact, Considering the system benefit 82) also illustrate such trends. offshore turbine size will plateau
enhance the value of wind energy to provided by supersized offshore will be determined by factors such
the electricity system and provide turbines as well as the increasing Our offshore wind ambassador and as continued turbine technology
other ‘hidden’ benefits including pressure for offshore wind to the offshore wind pioneer Henrik innovations, drive-train optimization,
reduced transmission expenditure reach grid parity, GWEC Market Stiesdal predicted in GWEC’s recent alternative materials, regulatory
(due to greater transmission Intelligence believes that the offshore Global Offshore Wind Technology barriers, and logistical constraints for
utilization), lower balancing costs for wind turbine size will continue to webinar that the next generation of both transportation and installation.
the electricity system (due to lower grow if wind energy is to reach its offshore turbine technology could
aggregate wind output variability), full potential. The offshore wind probably be around 20 MW with
and lower financing costs (due to less technology road maps in both Europe a 275m rotor diameter by 2030.
15
14
13
12
11
10
8
MW
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Conventional high speed geared-drive Medium speed geared-drive Direct Drive Floating
Solid line: the installation has been completed; Dashed line: new product was released but the protype is not installed yet.
GWEC.NET 83
China is playing catch-up in Offshore Wind Turbine Technology
11
10
7
MW
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e
2007 2008 2009
Solid line: the installation has been completed; Dashed line: new product was released but the protype is not installed yet.
GWEC.NET 85
The benefits and challenges associated with three basic floater concepts
GWEC.NET 87
could also be justified by recent
Global Floating Offshore Wind Project Pipeline commitments and partnerships
made primarily by oil majors, large
Operational Projects Projects under Construction or plan to be Projects announced in developing European utilities and technology
( Demonstration and trial phase) built by 2025 partnerships or auctions and to be providers in the past 18 months.
(Pre-commercial phase) operational by 2030 (Commercial phase)
Selected activities in this business
Hywind Demo, Norway (2.3 MW)- 2009 EolMed project, France (24.8 MW)- 2021 JERA, ademe and Ideol project (2000
segment by three groups are
MW)- Japan
summarised below:
WindFloat 1 Prototype, Portugal (2 MW)- Provence Grand Large floating, France Equinor & KNOC floating projects
2011 (25.2 MW)- 2021 (800MW)-South Korea
Oil majors
Kabashima Floating, Japan (2 MW)- 2013 DemoSATH, Spain (2 MW)- 2021 Ulsan 1GW floating (1000 MW)- South
Korea Equinor, a pioneer in floating
Fukushima FORWARD, Japan (2 MW)- 2013 Hywind Tampen, Norway (88 MW)- 2022 Equinor floating project (300 MW)- Greece wind, was recently joined by other
Fukushima FORWARD, Japan (7 MW)- 2016 Atlantic Marine Energy Test Site, Ireland FLAGSHIP Iberdrola (10 MW)- Norway oil majors, such as Shell and Total,
(30MW)- 2022 to start working in partnership
Hywind Scotland, UK (30 MW)- 2017 Les Éoliennes Flottantes du Golfe du Lion, Erebus demonstration (TOTAL) project (96 with the utilities/developer in the
France (30 MW)- 2023 MW)- UK floating offshore wind business
Floatgen, France (2 MW)- 2017 Groix Belle Ile wind farm, France (28.5 Parque Eólico Gofio (50 MW)- Spain segment. Aside from the Hywind
MW)- 2023
Tampen project in North Sea to
Fukushima FORWARD, Japan (5 MW)- 2017 CTG first floating tender, China (10 MW)- Industry proposed floating projects (1000 be built by 2022, Equinor plans to
2022 MW)- Norway
develop floating wind projects in
Kincardine, UK (2 MW testing)- 2018 Aqua Ventus, USA (12 MW)- 2023 Celtic Sea Floating (1000 MW)- The UK
Spain, Greece and South Korea.
Hibikinada KitaKyushu Demo, Japan (3 Goto (GCS) Floating, Japan (21MW)- French floating auctions (750MW)- France Through the partnership with Korea
MW)- 2019 2023
National Oil Corporation (KNOC),
PLOCAN’s Test Site, Spain (0.2 MW)- 2019 Celtic Sea Folating, UK (32MW)- 2024
Equinor recently commenced LiDAR
WindFloat Atlantic, Portugal (25.2 MW)- Equinor floating Canary Islands, Spain installations to conduct metocean data
2020 (200 MW)- 2025
measurements for a potential 800 MW
Nezzy2 Floating, Germany (testing-1.5 Donghae 1, South Korea (200 MW)-
floating offshore wind project in South
MW)- 2020 2024
Korea. In early 2019, Shell joined
Kincardine, UK (48MW)- 2020 Redwood Coast offshore wind project,
USA (150 MW)
seven other partners and signed
a Memorandum of Understanding
TetraSpar Demo, Norway (3.6 MW)- 2020e Sicilian Channel TetraSpar floating project,
Italy (250MW)- 2025 (MOU) with the City of Ulsan in South
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020 Korea to explore large-scale floating
offshore wind development. Shell
GWEC.NET 89
• Floating wind energy cost is high, solution, rather than a sub- investment from private and
almost double the cost of fixed sector of offshore wind. This institutional investors.
bottom offshore wind energy. can be done through adaptation • Cross industry collaboration,
of an optimised engineering
• According to Carbon Trust, there especially O&G and Power-to-X,
are around 40 different floating approach together with market needs to be addressed and
wind concepts at various stages consolidation in floater design. developed for commercialisation
of development, this prevents • Achieving cost reduction through of the FOW sector and to achieve
the floating offshore wind from standardisation, modularisation, cost reduction.
reaching the standardisation and increase of technology readiness
industrialisation. level, lowering cost of project
finance and economy of scale.
• The right policy frameworks
tailor-made to support floating • Coordination amongst the leading
are in general missing in most market players via strategic
markets, which is a barrier partnerships and sharing
for getting the private sector experiences from pioneer
engaged and also increases markets such as Norway, UK,
financial cost compared with Portugal, France and Japan with
bottom-fixed solution due to emerging floating markets such
a lower level of technology as South Korea, Spain, Greece,
readiness. Ireland, Italy and the US.
GWEC.NET 91
Power-to-X is one of the critical process to US$0.8 to $1.6/kg in most
components to reach power systems parts of the world before 2050[2],
based on 100% renewable energy making it price-competitive with its
sources for its ability to increase fossil fuel substitutes.
reliability and quality of demand-
side power management, energy Nonetheless, this technology is now
independence, and climate change limited by the scale of projects,
targets. In addition, PtX internalises making it too expensive to be widely
the cost of the positive externalities deployed at this stage. But the
with the potential for offsetting industry is primed to take the next
investments elsewhere such as in step, so it’s just a matter of “when”.
transmission networks or energy The most economically competitive
storage. As system balancing costs option: offshore wind-to-hydrogen
and risk to the electricity suppliers
would be reduced, this provides a With electrolysers just in their infancy
route to affordable hydrogen that is and still expensive, the potential for
also a desirable investment. cost reductions is enormous. Of all the
renewable electricity options, wind
Capital cost is high but expected to has the highest potential to produce
fall when scale is achieved coupled sustainable hydrogen because of
with government incentivisation its economic competitiveness - the
The technology itself has already price of wind turbines fell by 67.5%
proven to be technically feasible, between 2012 and 2020[3].
however, success now lies on the As the best wind resources are out
economic performance and hence at sea or in rural areas, Power-to-X
the willingness to invest in Power- complements offshore wind perfectly.
to-X technologies. Prices are set to It aids the integration of more
fall just as with offshore wind power, offshore wind by avoiding curtailment
from the current US$2.50 to US$6.8 or constraint due to the lack of
per kilogram[1] for the high-cost transmission capacity and decouples
renewables powered electrolysis renewables power generation
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/how-green-hydrogen-could-make-green-steel-real/
[2] https://about.bnef.com/blog/hydrogen-economy-offers-promising-path-to-decarbonization/
[3] BNEF LCOE Database Jan 2020
In the first offshore wind-to-hydrogen via existing gas infrastructure. This Offshore wind farm
solution, surplus offshore wind energy solution is already widely used by
that would otherwise be curtailed - or industrial gas producers to supply H20
purpose-built offshore wind capacity chemical and refining industries. It is
for hydrogen generation - will expected that up to 20% of hydrogen Offshore wind to hydrogen solution 1(b)
power electrolysers that split water by volume can be mixed into existing
molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. gas pipeline flows. While blending
Green hydrogen is then compressed green hydrogen into existing natural
and stored in a tank system, waiting to gas pipelines cannot achieve 100% 1. Electrolytes 2. Compression 3. Storage
GWEC.NET 93
Future of offshore wind to
power-to-X economy
GWEC.NET 95
Offshore Wind: A Decade of and zero-carbon energy. While the
Steep Growth Ahead COVID-19 pandemic has impacted Key takeaways
energy consumption and supply
At the beginning of this new decade, chains around the world, the offshore • 2019 was a year of record growth, with 6.1 GW of capacity added and
offshore wind is in a dramatically wind sector is expected to be largely cumulative global installations of 29.1 GW.
different position compared to 10 shielded in the long term, due to • Europe is the largest region for installations, but the market is primed to take
years ago. Having multiplied from longer project development timelines off in the Asia-Pacific region, where Mainland China is the global leader in
1 GW of installations primarily in and increasing cost-competitiveness. new capacity and markets like Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea set
Europe in 2010, the offshore wind Employment in offshore wind’s to accelerate to 2030.
market is now primed to accelerate in diverse and highly skilled value • More than 205 GW of new offshore wind capacity is forecast through 2030
markets around the world. Mainland chain offers a huge opportunity for – a 15 GW increase from last year’s business-as-usual outlook.
China is set to lead in new capacity, governments to invest in the sector
while emerging markets in the Asia- for green recovery. • COVID-19 will not significantly impact the global outlook, due to longer
Pacific region and North America are project timelines and concentration of installations in the latter half of the
seeing increased momentum, with As the offshore wind market matures, decade.
Europe expected to maintain steady new areas of innovation will boost • Floating offshore wind is an area of opportunity, set to reach
growth. Through 2030, GWEC Market growth. Floating offshore wind shows commercialisation by 2030 with more than 6 GW installed globally.
Intelligence forecasts more than 205 enormous promise, with 66 MW
• Turbine technology is also set to improve in both efficiency and resilience,
GW of new offshore wind capacity to already installed and significant
resulting in LCOE reductions and increased adoption.
be added globally. investment from oil majors and
leading wind developers. Floating • Offshore wind can be a core pillar of the global energy transition, supported
This is a 15 GW upgrade from the technology will sail through the by Power-to-X solutions, public commitment to decarbonisation and
previous business-as-usual outlook demonstration stage in the first widescale electrification.
in the Global Offshore Wind half of the decade to achieve • Industry must continue horizon-scanning for new areas of innovation,
Report 2019 – buoyed by policy commercialisation by 2030, when learning and improvement to accelerate offshore wind deployment.
ambition, declining technology costs GWEC Market Intelligence forecasts
and international commitments to more than 6 GW installed in markets
decarbonisation, offshore wind is like South Korea, Japan, France,
increasingly viewed as a critical Norway and the UK.
provider of large-scale, affordable
GWEC.NET 97
APPENDIX
GWEC.NET 99
About GWEC GWEC Market Intelligence Areas
Market Intelligence
GWEC Market Intelligence provides a Market Insights
Policy and Regulations Asset Owners
series of insights and data-based analysis Market statistics,
Country profiles, policy Database of asset owners
on the development of the wind industry. market outlook,
updates, offshore updates in key markets
This includes a market outlook, country auction/tender updates
3. Market Outlook
Global Wind Market Outlook for next five years (Q1 and Q3) Semi-Annual
5. Auction/ Tenders
Auction Trends and Learnings Annual/Quarterly
Global Auction Results (database) Annual/Quarterly
7. Components Assessment
Gearbox (Q4 2019), Blade (2020), followed by other components Special report
9. O&M
O&M service provider database (ISP - OEM - Self-perfrom) Annual
GWEC.NET 101
Global Wind Energy Council
@GWECGlobalWind
@Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)
@Global Wind Energy Council
www.gwec.net
102