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GLOBAL OFFSHORE

WIND REPORT 2020

GWEC.NET 1
2 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020
Table of Contents
Foreword5
Market Status 2019 9
Market Outlook 2030 13
Taking Offshore Global  31
Offshore Wind Technologies  80
Conclusion 95
Appendix98
Abbreviation99

Global Wind Energy Council Lead Authors Published Sponsored by


Rue Belliard 51-53 Joyce Lee, Feng Zhao 5 August 2020
1000 Brussels, Belgium
T. +32 490 56 81 39 Contributing Authors Design
info@gwec.net Alastair Dutton, Ben Backwell, Aspire Design, New Delhi
www.gwec.net Liming Qiao, Shuxin Lim, Anjali
Lathigaralead, Wanliang Liang

GWEC.NET 3
4 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020
Foreword
Rapid Growth world. Given that more than 70% September 2018, has brought
of the planet is covered by sea, together the major industry
It’s been quite a journey since I first and wind speeds are considerably players in offshore wind. Key
got involved in the offshore wind stronger offshore than onshore, the interventions have been in
industry 20 years ago. fundamentals are promising. Taiwan, Vietnam and Japan to
assist market development.
Offshore wind energy took its first Going Global
steps in the 1990s and has been • The World Bank’s ESMAP
growing in scale ever since. In Offshore wind is going global, Offshore Wind Development
recent years, however, growth has country by country. This piecemeal Program, launched in March Alastair Dutton
accelerated. From being 1% of global development is unhelpful for a supply 2019, is focused on expanding Chair of Global Offshore
wind installations by capacity in 2009, chain which is seeking to make sound offshore wind to developing Wind Task Force, GWEC
offshore wind has grown to over 10% investments and continue to reduce countries. The program is alastair.dutton@gwec.net
in 2019. Measured in investment costs. However, there are a number engaging numerous countries
terms that figure is much greater. of initiatives which aim to accelerate which will form part of the
offshore wind’s deployment: wider global market in years to
Offshore wind is now a mature come.
industry, but is only just beginning
• GWEC’s Global Offshore Wind

it’s expansion in earnest around the


Task Force, established in • The Ocean Renewable Energy
Action Coalition (OREAC),
launched in Dec 2019, targets
Themes 1.4 TW of offshore wind by
2050. This industry body is in
As we push through 30GW global capacity for offshore wind we see a number of
answer to the UN High Level
themes.
Panel for Sustainable Ocean
• In Europe, the market that started it all, the installation rate is accelerating. Economy call for action in Sept
• Asia is picking up the pace with China installing more capacity in 2019 than any 2019.
other country. This leadership is expected to continue through this decade.
These initiatives are in co-operation
• The message that the price of power from offshore wind has fallen to out-compete and complement each other for
fossil fuels and nuclear, has been understood in many parts of the world.
greater effect.

GWEC.NET 5
Future Markets • Floating technology will come • One of those lessons is the UK
of age this decade, tripling the Sector Deal which outlines targets
• Existing markets are hungry
technical potential for offshore and plans for government and
for more, notably UK, Germany,
Denmark, Netherlands, wind across the world. Initially industry to work together to
Belgium and China. As an the key markets are France, dramatically progress the sector
example, the UK is targeting 40 Japan, South Korea, Scotland, for the benefit of all. This best
GW by 2030, up from 10 GW Norway, Portugal, Spain and US practice is now being adopted in
today. Pacific Coast. Once commercial other markets such as Japan and
scale projects are established Poland.
• Emerging markets include
and costs come down many
Taiwan, US Atlantic Coast, COVID-19
other locations will come into
Japan, South Korea and
play, for example South Africa,
Vietnam. Not only do these To date offshore wind has been less
Canada, Philippines and many
markets want low cost impacted than most energy sectors
island states.
electricity to decarbonize by the pandemic, and stands ready to
their footprint but they are Lessons Learned be a material part of a green recovery
keen to establish their own package.
supply chains to benefit their
• Much has been learned from
the last 30 years of offshore Conclusion
economies. However, inflexible wind deployment in Europe.
local content requirements Those lessons are being taken The potential of offshore wind to
could frustrate those economic worldwide by developers and achieve the energy transition within
hopes by raising the cost consultants. Governments the right time frame and contribute to
of electricity and creating are adapting those lessons in post-COVID recovery is increasingly
inefficient local suppliers not the context of their particular being understood around the world.
able to compete on a regional political and fiscal backdrops. At GWEC, we look forward to working
or global market. with you all to realise this potential
• New markets are in the
preparation phase. Examples
include Brazil, Mexico, India,
Sri Lanka, Australia and many From being 1% of global wind installations by
more. In Europe the existing
market will expand into Ireland,
capacity in 2009, offshore wind has grown to over
Poland, Lithuania and others. 10% in 2019

6 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Offshore Wind – The technology
that is changing the world
We tend to seek in every crisis an transformative impact that offshore one of the key pillars to ensuring
opportunity, inspired by the dual wind would have on the world’s that they successfully reach their
meaning of the word in Chinese. The energy mix. decarbonisation strategies, necessary
COVID-19 crisis is not over yet, but to keep global warming under 1.5°C.
it is already bringing to centre stage 30 years ago, there was not a single
Philippe Kavafyan
the offshore wind industry as one MW installed offshore, but with From the pivotal role offshore wind
current market predictions, there will play in delivering the European CEO, MHI Vestas
key element of the response to the
global challenge we are all facing. By could be up to 1,400 GW installed Green Deal and in the UK economic
revealing the previously unheralded worldwide over the next 30 years. recovery plan, to rapid growth in the
achievements of offshore wind Asia Pacific region, now home to the
Offshore wind technology has largest market in China, to continued
technology and operations, the focus advanced dramatically over the progress in US federal and state
on economic recovery is creating one past few decades. A single offshore waters, offshore wind is beginning to
of these moments in history when wind turbine now has more capacity witness exponential growth across the
things suddenly accelerate. It is a time than the output of the world’s first world.
of positive disruption, because the two offshore wind parks combined.
need is clear and the solution readily New technologies such as floating GWEC and its partners are also
available and scalable. foundations enable installation in working tirelessly to ensure that the
A pioneering industry deeper waters, paving the way next round of emerging markets such
for another range of geographical as those in Latin America and India,
The offshore wind pioneers of the opportunities for offshore wind. capitalise on the lessons learned from
early 90’s might have known that they the three decades of experience.
were creating something special Exponential growth ahead This will increase our chances as
by unlocking the power of wind at an industry of reaching the global
2020 was always destined to be
sea, but not even the most optimistic potential of offshore wind by 2050.
a big year for our industry. Many
at the time could foresee the truly nations now see offshore wind as

GWEC.NET 7
Lessons learned and draw upon the cheapest, highest conditions for construction and role to play guiding the world through
quality suppliers of components from service. these exceptional circumstances,
What learnings can be shared as an the region. setting a practical course to reach
increasing number of countries look Having risen to the initial challenge, global decarbonisation targets.
to deliver many more projects further There is also an ever-increasing gap the industry now has the opportunity
out to sea whilst reaping the industrial between the “raw” MWs that many to direct funds set aside for green This GWEC report provides a
benefits of offshore wind? nations are targeting ahead of 2030- recovery stimulus packages to snapshot of the industry today, and
2050 renewable energy plans and the accelerate the investments in the the potential we have to realise
The gradual, organic build up in the “qualified” MWs that can actually be necessary infrastructure that will help together in partnership to ensure the
European supply chain has seen the installed by 2030-2050. As the size unleash the potential of the oceans future of our planet.
rejuvenation of coastal communities, and complexity of projects increase, and the economic potential of many
the growth of second and third tier greater emphasis must be placed countries.
suppliers across the continent, and on reducing inefficiencies during
skill development pathways to help the permitting process to ensure Investment in grids, ports, Power-to-
transition workforces from sunsetting projects can be delivered on time Green Hydrogen projects all have
to sunrising industries. and reach these targets. The industry the potential to rapidly increase
has clear vision on the stakeholders deployment of offshore winds. If the
With such valuable social and delays in the permitting process can
and challenges that typically cause
economic value and the continual also be minimised through renewed
delays, and these challenges must
reduction in cost of energy, it is easy political willpower, then offshore wind
be addressed and resolved by
to see why offshore wind is becoming is ready to deliver on its potential.
collaboration with the industry and
so appealing. The success seen in
policymakers before MW targets can
Europe has created expectations Rising to the challenge
be considered qualified and offshore
around the globe that offshore wind
wind can grow as a sector. John F Kennedy once said, “these
will generate economic value as well
are extraordinary times. And we face
as deliver a low cost of energy to The COVID-19 effect an extraordinary challenge. Our
power sustainable, green economies,
Without a doubt, COVID-19 has strength as well as our convictions
regionally.
changed the world forever. When have imposed upon this nation the
The industry has demonstrated that the pandemic first hit, the industry’s role of leader”, and while he may
the supply chain will come with focus was on ensuring continuity of have originally been speaking
volume organically. As turbines business in both the supply chain about freedom, it is an apt quote for
become even larger and more and in operating offshore wind parks. the offshore industry to adopt. The
powerful, offshore logistics dictate The industry demonstrated strong green energy transition needs our
that supply chains have to be regional resilience, notably in the challenging leadership, we have a very important

8 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


MARKET STATUS 2019

GWEC.NET 9
Annual installations • In The Netherlands, Vattenfall won
the second Dutch zero-subsidy
With 6.1 GW new capacity added, offshore wind tender, totalling
2019 was the best year in history for 760 MW, in July 2019 (repeating
the global offshore wind industry. the zero-priced bids of the first
• China achieved a new record in round in 2018 and meaning that
2019, installing 2.4 GW offshore the project will only receive the
wind in a single year. The United wholesale price of electricity and
Kingdom came in second place, no further support/payment).
although it also had record Those results prove how offshore
installations of 1.8 GW in 2019. costs have come down through
With 1.1 GW of new installations, technology innovation and
Germany took the third place, economies of scale.
followed by Denmark and Belgium. • The US offshore sector made great
• The results from the UK CfD progress last year. The country’s
Allocation Round 3 announced in total offshore wind procurement
September 2019 showed record targets increased from 9.1 GW
low strike prices ranging from in 2018 to 25.4 GW in 2019
£39 to £41/MWh (in 2012 prices), after New York and New Jersey
which is about 30% lower than the upgraded their offshore targets,
auction held in 2017. In total, more and more states released their
than 5.4 GW offshore wind projects offshore wind targets. Six states
were awarded. had selected more than 6 GW of
offshore wind through state-issued
solicitations as of December

With 6.1 GW of new capacity added, 2019 was


the best year in history for the global offshore wind
industry.

10 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


2019 and more solicitations are Cumulative installations • However, the activity level in Asia
expected to be issued in New keeps increasing with China
York and New Jersey in 2020. The The global offshore market grew taking the lead followed by Taiwan,
industry is now moving a phase of on average by 24% each year since Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea.
project construction planning and 2013, bringing the total installations to
29.1 GW, which accounted for 5% of
• North America has only 30 MW
execution as more than 15 offshore offshore wind in operation in the
projects are expected to be built total global wind capacity as the end
US as of 2019 but deployment will
by 2026. of 2019.
accelerate in the coming years.
• Development in the Asian offshore • Europe remains the largest • The top five offshore wind market
markets was also positive in offshore market as the end of 2019,
in total installations are: The UK,
2019 – Taiwan connected its first making up 75% of total global
Germany, China, Denmark and
utility-scale offshore project to offshore wind installation.
Belgium.
the grid. On top of the 5.6 GW
offshore wind to be installed by - 0.1
New installations Rest of world China Europe
2025, a further 10 GW is planned GW, affshare 6.1
to be built offshore from the island
0.1
between 2026 and 2035. Positive CAGR*
4.5
-0.03 2.4
+24% 4.3
steps were also made in Japan last
year to accelerate offshore wind 3.4 1.2
0.4 1.6
development with its first offshore 0.1
0.1 0.2 2.2
wind auction launched in summer 0.1 1.7 1.7
0.1 0.2 3.0 0.6 3.2 3.6
2020. 1.3 2.7
1.0 1.0
0.6 1.6
• Globally, offshore wind installations 0.1 0.2
0.5
0.6 0.9 0.8
1.2 1.5 1.6
have grown from 3.4 GW in 2015 to
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
6.1 GW 2019, bringing its market
share in global new installations Offshore share of new 2-3% 4% 8% 10%
from 5% to 10% in just five years. installations 1%
* Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, March 2020

GWEC.NET 11
FLOATING WIND
• 11.4 MW floating
wind installed in
2019, of which 8.4
MW is from Portugal
and 3 MW from
Japan;
• As of the 2019, a
total of 65.7 MW
floating wind was
installed global, of
which 32 MW is
located in the UK, 19
MW in Japan, 10.4
MW in Portugal,
2.3MW in Norway
and 2 MW in France

New offshore wind Total offshore wind


New offshore wind Total offshore wind
installations by region installations by region
installations by country installations by country
2% 0.1%
1%
4%
6% 5%
6% 24.7%
6%
33%
39% 41%
18%
6.1 GW 29.1 GW 6.1 GW 59% 29.1 GW
24% …

75.2%
29% 26%

China The UK Germany Denmark The UK Germany China Denmark Europe APAC Europe APAC North America
Belgium Taiwan Portugal Japan Belgium Netherlands Sweden Taiwan
Vietnam South Korea Others

12 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


MARKET OUTLOOK 2030

GWEC.NET 13
Offshore Market Outlook to 2030
The global offshore wind market overall growth of the global wind offshore wind tenders worldwide. For
outlook to 2030 has grown more market, and expects offshore wind to the medium-term market outlook,
promising over the past year as contribute more than 20 percent of aside from existing project pipelines,
governments raise their ambition total wind installations by 2025. a top-down approach has also been
levels and new countries join the used, which takes into account
market. With an average annual As the world’s largest regional existing policy, support schemes and
growth rate of 18.6 percent until 2024 offshore wind market, Europe is national level offshore wind targets.
and 8.2 per cent up to the end of the expected to maintain steady growth,
decade, new annual installations are but new installations outside Europe,
expected to sail past the milestones of predominantly from Asia and North
20 GW in 2025 and 30 GW in 2030. America, are likely to surpass
Europe in 2020 for the first time and Global offshore wind growth to 2030
GWEC Market Intelligence expects continue exceeding volume in Europe New installations Other China Europe
that over 205 GW of new offshore through 2030. In the near-term GW, offshore North America Asia ex China
wind capacity will be added over the (2020-2024), the majority of growth
CAGR** 1 1
next decade. Three-quarters of this outside of Europe will primarily come +8.2% 31.9
31.0
new volume will be installed in the from China and Taiwan, with the 2.0 3.0 3.4
latter half (2025-2030), as projects contribution from the US becoming 26.2
25.5 6.0 6.0
currently in planning get connected to sizeable from 2024 when the first CAGR*
+18.6% 21.5 21.5 3.0 3.0
the grid. utility-scale offshore project comes
4.2 3.2 5.5 5.5 6.9 7.0
online.
Offshore wind already accounted 1.1
5.0
5.0
4.6
0.3 4.7
for 10 percent of global new wind Our near-term offshore wind market 0.3 2.0 13.0 3.2
1.8
9.7 9.9 1.5 2.9 3.7
power installations in 2019. Buoyed outlook was built using a bottom-up 9.1 14.1 14.5
6.1 6.6 3.5 3.5 11.4
by expansion into new markets and approach and is based on GWEC 5.0 3.0 10.1 11.0
2.4 4.0 8.7
acceleration of the global energy Market Intelligence’s global offshore 4.6 5.5
3.6 4.3
2.3 2.7
transition, GWEC Market Intelligence wind project database, which covers 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
foresees offshore wind playing an projects currently under construction,
* CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
increasingly important role in the global auction results and announced Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

14 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Europe
Looking at potential growth in the Global offshore wind growth to 2030 in Europe
decade ahead, GWEC Market New installations Rest of Europe Denmark Netherlands UK
Intelligence forecasts that the GW, offshore Belgium France Germany
CAGR*
European offshore wind market will +10.9% 0.5
Europe is the birthplace of the 14.5
continue to grow strongly, as new 14.1
offshore wind industry. Since the
offshore wind projects are both 0.5 4.0
world’s first offshore wind turbine 11.4
0.5
3.6
cheaper to build and operate than CAGR* 11.0
was installed in Denmark in 1991, +25.2% 0.0 10.1 0.3 2.4
new nuclear power and gas-fired 0.5 1.8
Europe has been taking the lead 8.7 0.0 2.4
2.0 2.0
power plants, making it a core energy 0.7
1.7 1.0 1.0
1.0 1.0
in both offshore wind installations 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.0
1.0 1.0
1.0 1.0
source to help Europe to meet its 0.4
0.0
0.5 0.0 1.0
1.0 1.0
and turbine technology innovation. 0.0
0.7
0.8
5.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
NDCs and achieve carbon-neutrality 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.3 0.0 4.6 0.9
1.2
After three decades of research and 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.2
goals by 2050. 0.5 2.3 2.7 1.5 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0
development in Europe, offshore 1.1 0.5
2.3 0.5 1.5 3.0
3.8
1.8 1.1
wind has established itself as a cost- The European Commission estimates 0.0 0.9
competitive power generation of 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
that total offshore wind installations
choice for governments and a mature * CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
between 240 and 450 GW will be Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
industry. Through collaboration needed by 2050, making offshore
among European markets and wind a crucial pillar in Europe’s European executed offshore tenders/ auctions 2015-19
European executed offshore tenders/ auctions 2015-19
experienced stakeholders, a robust power mix. Awarded
Awardedcapacity (GW),average
capacity (GW), average winning
winning bid (EUR/
bid (EUR/ MWh)*MWh)*
offshore wind supply chain has been
In GWEC Market Intelligence’s pre- 154
built in countries neighbouring the 146 5500
160
5500
North Sea and Baltic Sea. In the past COVID market outlook, 2020 and
5000
140
decade, the European offshore wind 2021 were expected to be relatively 4500
quiet years, with new installations 103 120
market enjoyed double-digit annual 4000
growth (11 percent), making it the below 3 GW in Europe. 3500 81 100
3000 73
world’s largest regional market as of 63 62 80
2500 55
the end of 2019. 50
44
“zero 47 44 46 60
2000 bid”
2336
1500 40
1490 1610
1000 752 732 740 860
714 600 600
New installations are likely to exceed 20 500 400 448 350
20

0 0
GW in 2026 and then potentially reach 15
NL -Borssele

shore

Flak

3+4

GER 1st

GER-2nd

FR -
Dunkirk

UK - 3rd
CfD
DK-Horns

CfD17/18

CfD 18/19

1+2

NL -Hollan-dse

UK-2nd
CfD 21/22

UK-2nd
CfD 22/23
Kust 1+2
UK -1st

UK -1st

DK -Near

NL-Borssele
Rev 3

DK-Kriegers
GW by 2030
• Tenders above 100MW capacity and no innovation auctions, tenders in order of execution from 2015 to end of 2019
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, GWEC Auction Database May 2020

GWEC.NET 15
This growth forecast is unchanged projects, is underway with Invitation it establishes a long-term offshore
in our post-COVID scenario. After a to Tender (ITT) Stage 1 submission target of 40 GW by 2040. The
slow start in the beginning of 2020s, period concluded. In early June, amendment has been welcomed by
however, the European offshore Crown Estate Scotland also launched the industry, as it brings in volume,
market is likely to bounce back in the ScotWind seabed leasing round scale, jobs and long-term visibility.
2022 when all the UK’s CfD 2 projects for offshore wind projects, followed
will come online. New installations in by the UK Committee on Climate France
Europe are likely to reach 8.7 GW in Change (CCC)’s recommendation to The Multiannual Energy Programme
2025. the government in June to deliver at (Programmation pluriannuelle de
least 40 GW of offshore wind by 2030.
Taking into account recently l’énergie (PPE)) that came into force
increased or proposed offshore wind Germany in April 2020 shows that France will
targets from established markets and tender up to 8.75 GW of offshore wind
activities in new European markets, The German wind industry has capacity from 2020 to 2028. The PPE
such as those around the Black Sea, been struggling with the federal also increases the intended operating
GWEC Market Intelligence expects government’s conservative offshore offshore wind capacity to between 5.2
more offshore wind to be built in wind target. The good news is that GW and 6.2 GW by 2028. The 2023
the second half of the decade. New Germany’s Federal Cabinet has operating capacity target is 2.4 GW.
installations are likely to exceed 20 approved the amendment to the From 2024 onward, France will tender
GW in 2026 and then potentially Offshore Wind Act (WindSeeG) in 1 GW per year of either fixed-bottom
reach 15 GW by 2030. June 2020. Not only does the bill or floating wind capacity, depending
increase the 2030 offshore wind on the cost.
The United Kingdom target from 15 GW to 20 GW, but
Denmark
As the world’s largest offshore wind Total added between 2020 and 2030
market, the UK continues to tell a GW, offshore In June 2020, the Danish parliament
successful story through its 2019 approved a new Climate Action Plan
Sector Deal, reached between the Rest of
which calls for the development of
20% Europe two “energy islands,” one in the North
government and industry, through its
34% Belgium Sea and one in the Baltic Sea (with a
new government target of 40 percent
3% Denmark combined capacity of 5 GW planned
of UK power from offshore wind by
89 GW France by 2030) and also approves the
2030, and through the 30 percent 9%
Netherlands development and construction of one
cost reduction achieved from CfD
Germany more wind farm in the Baltic Sea with
Rounds 2 to 3. CfD Round 4, which 9% UK capacity of up to 1 GW.
seeks to award up to 8.5 GW of 14%
11%

16 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Asia
Japan built Asia’s first offshore wind will continue to decline when offshore
project with two units of V47-660kW projects expand to new markets with
turbines in 2003. However, the Asian high resource potential, like India and
offshore market was not ready to the Philippines, towards the end of the
take off in earnest until 2014, when decade.
the Chinese central government The average annual growth rate
released the National Offshore Wind in Asia will stay at the level of
Development Plan (2014-2016). In 1.7 percent in the first half of this
2017, China passed the 1 GW annual decade, but is likely to increase to
installation milestone; one year later, 8.4 percent in the second half. The
it surpassed the UK as the world’s top top five markets in this region in new
market in new installations.

GWEC Market Intelligence’s latest Global offshore wind growth to 2030 in Asia
market outlook predicts that China
will continue to dominate the Asian New installations, Asia Rest of Asia Vietnam S. Korea China
GW, affshore India Taiwan Japan
offshore wind market in the first 13.0
Share of Chinese CAGR* 12.9
half of this decade, with more than X% offshore market +8.4% 0.7 0.8
70 percent market share. Taiwan is CAGR* 1.0 1.0
+1.7% 10.1 10.2 0.7 0.7
expected to be the largest offshore 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
8.7 0.1
market in Asia after China in new 0.1 8.2 0.6 0.7 2.0 2.0
0.6
7.0 0.6 1.0 1.0
installations in the same period. 0.1
0.4
2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5
0.5
0.1 1.5 0.4 1.0 1.0
0.1 0.1 4.8 0.1 5.0 0.2 4.6
0.5
1.0
However, the scales will tip from 2025, 4.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4
0.5

0.9 0.8
when more utility-scale offshore wind 0.1 2.5 0.4
0.5
5.5 5.5 6.0 6.0
5.0 5.0 5.0
projects get connected in Japan, 4.0
3.0
3.5 3.5
2.4
South Korea and Vietnam. GWEC
Market Intelligence forecasts that 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
China’s market share in this region 95% 93% 72% 62% 70% 77% 58% 61% 54% 54% 47% 46%

is likely to drop to 58% in 2025 and * CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

GWEC.NET 17
installations in this decade will be GWEC Market Intelligence predicts in total installations by 2021, if not
China (52 GW), Taiwan (10.5 GW), that Europe will remain the largest 2020. However, new installations will
South Korea (7.9 GW), Japan (7.4 regional offshore wind market in decline dramatically from 2022, when
GW) and Vietnam (5.2 GW). terms of total installations by 2025 and the central government will terminate
2030. Nevertheless, Asia’s share of the subsidy for offshore wind. Annual
Excluding China, the Asian offshore the global market is expected to grow offshore wind growth in China in
wind market is still at the early stage from 24 percent in 2019 to 42 percent the future will depend on whether
of development. Each market is in 2025, where it is likely to remain subsidies provided by provincial
facing the challenge of developing a until the end of the decade. governments will be available and
local supply chain and the necessary whether offshore wind industry can
competencies and capabilities to China reach grid parity before 2025.
build an offshore wind industry.
China was the world’s No. 3 offshore Taiwan
market in total installations as of
Total installations Other Asia China
Percentage and GW, offshore
the end of 2019 (after the UK and With 128 MW offshore wind capacity
Other Europe
Germany). At present, project online at present, Taiwan is positioned
29 GW 99 GW 235 GW developers and investors are rushing to become the second-largest
1%
11% to commission their projects before offshore wind market in this region. It
16%
23% the end of the 2021 deadline in order will connect 5.5 GW of new offshore
31% 25% to capitalise on the 0.85RMB/kWh wind by 2025 and another 10 GW
FiT for offshore wind. Considering will be tendered by the government
7% extraordinary volume of new capacity through the Round 3 auctions for
12%
(4-5 GW/year) will be built in 2020 commissioning by 2035, providing
75% and 2021, GWEC Market Intelligence the long-term visibility needed
51% 48% expects China will surpass the UK as to generate a local offshore wind
the world’s largest offshore market industry and supply chain.

2019 2025e 2030e

The early experience from Taiwan China will continue to dominate the Asian offshore
has proven that collaboration with wind market in the first half of this decade with
European partners across markets in
this region is essential for success. more than 70 per cent market share

18 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


South Korea Vietnam

Although the “green growth” strategy More than 500 MW offshore wind
announced almost a decade ago projects in the pipeline were
has failed to boost its offshore wind expected to come online before the
development, the Democratic Party current FiT deadline of November
led by President Moon Jae-in seems 2021. Taking into account the recent
intent on reviving the green agenda. announcement of a FiT extension
To reach the “Renewable Energy to the end of 2023 followed by an
3020” target of 20 percent renewables auction system from 2024, which
in the power mix by 2030, South was officially sanctioned by the
Korea is targeting 12 GW of new Prime Minister in June, GWEC
offshore wind capacity to be built by Market Intelligence predicts a total
the end of this decade. of 5.2 GW offshore wind capacity to
be built between 2020 and 2030.
Japan

The development of Japan’s offshore


wind sector has been stymied by
Projectsunder
Projects underconstruction
construction2020*
2020*
a lack of ambitious targets and MW,
MW, offshore (status as Q1 2020)
offshore (Status as Q1 2020)
a cumbersome permitting and
licensing framework, but there has 15,132
been a growth in momentum at 750

both the policymaking and industry


level since 2017. In July 2020, the
government nominated four offshore
wind zones and launched the first
offshore wind auction for a floating
offshore wind farm offshore from
Goto City. GWEC Market Intelligence 130
expects he Japanese offshore wind 60

market to take off from the middle of China Taiwan S.Korea Vietnam
this decade.
* Construction defined as beginning of foundation work
Source: GWEC Market intelligence, May 2020

GWEC.NET 19
North America
North America installed its first Based on GWEC Market
test offshore wind turbine, a 1/8th Intelligence’s global offshore wind
geometric scale of a 6 MW turbine, project pipeline, no utility-scale
off the coast of Maine in 2013, and offshore wind project will come
connected its first commercial wind online in North America before 2024.
project to the grid in Rhode Island In total, 23 GW of offshore wind is
in December 2016. As of the end predicted to be built in this region in
of 2019, 30 MW of offshore wind this decade, of which less than 1 GW
capacity was spinning in North is expected to come from Canada,
America, making it the only region despite its high technical resource
with commercial offshore wind potential.
outside of Europe and Asia.

Global offshore wind growth to 2030 in North America

New installations Canada North America


GW, offshore

CAGR*
+75.9%

4.2

3.2 3.4
2.9 3.0 3.0 0.4
4.2
3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
2.9

0.3
0.0 0.01 0.0 0.0

2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e

* CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate


Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

20 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


United States

The sole demonstration project To realize such potential, however,


Offshore wind development targets in the US
in the US, a 12 MW pilot project the following key challenges need
in Virginia, was completed in to be addressed:
June 2020 as the first offshore Maryland 1.2GW (2030)
wind project to be approved
• Slow project permitting
Conneticut 2GW (2030)
processes have delayed the
by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Virginia 5.2GW (2034)
ramp-up of the US offshore Massachusetts 3.2GW (2035)
Management (BOEM) and installed wind industry, which has more New Jersey 7.5GW (2035)
in federal waters. However, the than 2,000 GW of technical New York 9GW (2035)
level of offshore wind development 28.1 GW
resource potential and must be
activity remains impressively high. streamlined.
As of the end of 2019, BOEM has
auctioned 16 active commercial • Establishing a local supply
chain and fostering investment
leases for offshore wind
and long-term planning in grid
development that could support
and port infrastructure must be
more than 21 GW of generating
achieved across states through
capacity.
a collaborative approach.
On the state level, the East Coast
cluster consisting of Maine,
Connecticut, Massachusetts,
New York, New Jersey, Delaware,
Maryland, Virginia and North
Carolina is driving strong demand
for offshore wind energy with the
total announced offshore wind
procurement targets reaching 28.1
GW as of Q1 2019. GWEC Market
Intelligence predicts a total of 22.6
GW of offshore wind could be built
in the US by the end of this decade.

GWEC.NET 21
Floating Offshore
Market Outlook to
2030
The world’s first MW scale floating After a decade of development, is ready to progress quickly to full
offshore wind turbine was grid- floating offshore wind is no longer commercialisation.
connected by Equinor in Norway in simply an R&D area. With more oil
2009. As of the end of 2019, a total majors such as Shell and TOTAL At present, the 2030 floating offshore
of 66 MW of floating wind capacity starting to focus on floating wind, wind forecast ranges from 3 GW to
has been installed worldwide. this sub-section of offshore wind nearly 19 GW, depending on how
quickly LCOE can be brought down
New installations France
MW, floating**
USA Ireland South Korea (Republic of) to an affordable level and its adoption
Norway Portugal United Kingdom Japan
2000 by new markets.
Greece Italy Spain PR China
GWEC Market Intelligence predicts
CAGR* 500 6.2 GW of floating wind is likely to
+23.2% 1500
be built in the next 10 years. This
outlook is primarily based on the
500 500 existing global floating offshore
project pipeline as well as announced
CAGR* 800 investment plans. Out of the 6.5 GW
+37.6% 706
640 500 500 floating wind installations, we expect
150
50 less than 10 percent to be built in the
15 32 300 500
10
64 250 300 first half of this decade; the majority
17 50 232
8 182 5 12 96 500 500 of new volume will come online in the
48 2 250
3 75 52 17 250 300
11 88 29 200 200 10 latter half, when large-scale floating
90
wind projects tendered through
Y2019 Y2020e Y2021e Y2022e Y2023e Y2024e Y2025e Y2026e Y2027e Y2028e Y2029e Y2030e
auctions are expected to be installed.
* CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
** Note: this floating wind outlook is already included in GWEC’s global offshore wind forecast
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

22 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Currently, the UK, Portugal and Japan expects that floating wind will prevail
are the top three markets in total when it is commercially viable as
floating wind installations. By the end another foundation solution, rather
of this decade, South Korea, France than a sub-sector of offshore wind.
and Norway are likely to replace Consolidation of floater designs
those markets as the top floating and modularisation of production
markets. Considering the tremendous will be the keys to bringing down
wind resources available at shallow LCOE. GWEC launched its Floating
water depths, at present we expect Offshore Wind Task Force in July
only demonstration floating wind 2020 to unlock future potential.
projects to be built in China.

Floating wind’s current contribution


to total wind installations is fairly
small, but it will play an increasingly
important role toward the end of this
decade, accounting for 6 percent
of global new wind installations in
2030. GWEC Market Intelligence

Global floating offshore wind resource map

Courtesy of Principle Power. Artist name: Dock90

Source: Q FWE

GWEC.NET 23
Impact of COVID-19 on Global
Offshore Wind Market
The COVID-19 pandemic has offshore wind sector, with longer
2020 was on track to be a shocked the global energy sector, project development timelines,
record year in global wind forcing projects to suspend work will largely be shielded from the
history with more than 76 to comply with social distancing short-term supply chain disruptions
GW to be installed. However, regulations, challenging the which impacted project execution in
the COVID-19 crisis, which investment conditions of markets onshore markets across the world.
disrupted global wind bracing for economic recession and In 2020, the wind capacity lost to the
supply chains and project slashing power demand by up to pandemic is estimated by GWEC
construction execution, is 10% in some regions in 2020. The Market Intelligence at around 15 GW
expected to lead to a more size of that decline is around seven – most of the downgrade will affect
modest 61.4 GW this year, times greater than during the 2008- onshore wind, with volume shifting to
19 percent lower than our 2009 global financial crisis, according come online by 2021 instead.
pre-COVID forecast made in to the IEA, and has hit demand for oil,
natural gas and coal the hardest. Impact of COVID-19 on global
Q1 2020. Most of the impact
offshore outlook
will be felt by the onshore
But renewable energy will see an
wind sector, and new wind Over the next five years, the leader
overall increase in its share of global
installations are likely to for offshore wind installations by far
power generation this year, due to
bounce back to make 2021 will be Mainland China, where 19
its cost-competitiveness and priority
a record year with annual GW is expected to be commissioned
dispatch in many markets. And the
installations reaching 77.7 GW.

COVID-19 will not significantly impact the global outlook,


due to longer project timelines and concentration of
installations in the latter half of the decade.

24 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


off the coasts of Jiangsu, Fujian, outlook. The projects scheduled COVID-19 pandemic have delayed
Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hebei and for commission in both years are projects previously scheduled for
Liaoning provinces. Driven by an currently under construction in the commissioning in 2022 and 2023.
offshore wind FiT for projects which UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Thus, GWEC Market Intelligence has
will be grid-connected by 2021, the Belgium. GWEC members report pushed back the commissioning year
market has sufficient runway and that construction work is proceeding for those projects by one year.
production capacity to rebound during the pandemic, with the two big
from the slowdown in activity during projects Borssele I & II and Seamade
the first half of 2020. The delay for generating first power in April and
offshore wind project construction in July, respectively.
China is estimated at six months, due
in part to restrictions on imported In addition, the market leader, the
bearing materials from Europe and UK, has maintained its offshore wind
imported blade materials like balsa auction timeline for 2021, with the
wood and PVC from Ecuador and industry even calling to accelerate
Italy. procurement through annual Contract
for Difference auctions. Germany,
Since the grid-connection deadline the No. 2 offshore market in Europe,
extension proposal sent by the local recently raised its offshore wind
wind industry to the National Energy capacity target to 20 GW by 2030 and
Administration (NEA) seems unlikely 40 GW by 2040, and implemented
to be approved at the time of writing, a law streamlining permitting
the Chinese offshore industry is procedures for wind projects. The
currently running in full steam in government is also making offshore
project construction. Based on the wind a cornerstone of its national
latest offshore wind market dynamics hydrogen economy strategy.
and feedback from leading suppliers
and developers in China, GWEC has In the US, the 12 MW Dominion
kept its 19 GW pre-COVID forecast Virginia demonstration project was
unchanged for China for the next five successfully installed in June 2020,
years. but the combination of prolonged
lead time to secure federal permits,
In Europe, the expected new especially the Construction and
installations in 2020 and 2021 were Operations Plan (COP) from
already low in our pre-COVID BOEM, and the effects of the

GWEC.NET 25
Green Recovery
The pandemic has highlighted the
opportunity to make wind power a
cornerstone of economic growth and
recovery packages. GWEC’s global
statement on “Re-building Better”
for the future, signed by leading
wind companies and associations
representing 98 percent of installed
onshore and offshore wind power
worldwide, highlights wind power as
a source of affordable, clean and zero-
carbon electricity, which can bring
significant socioeconomic benefits
to local communities (see page 26
“Driving millions”).

By mid-2020, as lights around


the world flickered back on and
assembly lines restarted, global
carbon emissions have already
sharply rebounded. It is critical for
the health, welfare and prosperity of
the global community that the clean
energy transition becomes a core
component of economic stimulus
and growth packages. Studies show
that investing in renewables will
have a multiplier effect on economic
growth: $1 spent to advance the

26 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


global energy transition returns $3-8, deployment, through higher capacity
according to IRENA, while clean targets, transparent pipelines and
energy infrastructure construction policy measures to resolve the
generates twice as many jobs per $1 severe existing bottlenecks around
million spent as fossil fuel projects. permitting and licensing of new
projects. Increasing investment to
Offshore wind offers compound value undertake modernisation of grid and
for investment, with high capacity transmission infrastructure will also
factors and average global costs be key to integrating large volumes of
declining more than 50 percent over offshore wind.
the last decade. In decarbonisation
terms, 1 GW of offshore wind
power avoids more than 3.5 MT
CO2 – giving it more potential for
carbon avoidance as a technology
to displace fossil fuels than even
onshore wind, solar, hydro or efficient
gas power.

Keeping global warming within


1.5-2 degrees of pre-industrial
levels will require at least 100
GW of new onshore and offshore
wind capacity to be installed on
an annual basis through 2030, with
the accompanying scale-up of
investment. True “green recovery” by
national and regional governments
will enable this magnitude of

GWEC.NET 27
Driving Millions of Sustainable Jobs in
the Energy Transition
At a time when governments are mechanics, scientists, and offshore
considering maximum impact per equipment and vessel operators.” 17.3 direct jobs (defined
dollar of economic stimulus, it is worth as one year of full-time
highlighting that offshore wind farms Based on data from IRENA, gathered
during a 2018 study of nearly 30 employment for one
have greater labour requirements
than onshore wind farms, due to more stakeholders, GWEC estimates that person) are created
complex construction, assembly and 17.3 direct jobs (defined as one per MW of generation
installation activities. year of full-time employment for capacity over the 25-year
one person) are created per MW lifetime of an offshore
Offshore wind offers a range of of generation capacity over the
wind project.[1]
job opportunities across the value 25-year lifetime of an offshore
chain – from project planning wind project.[1] With nearly 51 Nearly 900,000 jobs in
and financing to manufacturing GW of new offshore wind capacity
offshore wind are likely
and transport to construction and forecast to be installed worldwide
operations and maintenance (O&M). by 2024, that equals nearly 900,000 to be created over the
A 2020 study by the American Wind jobs in offshore wind created over next five years.
Energy Association found that the the next five years – a figure which
sector offers “good, well-paying can only increase if offshore wind
jobs requiring a diverse technical deployment scales up.
workforce spanning an estimated
74 occupations… [including]
electricians, welders, turbine [1] This is a generalised calculation for demonstration
technicians, longshoremen, truck purposes only, and does not account for
technology evolution, application of various
drivers, crane operators, ironworkers, platforms or installation technologies, economies
pipe-fitters, pile drivers, engineers, of scale, productivity rates or learning excellence.
Comprehensive studies are required to determine
job creation potential for offshore wind for specific
markets.

28 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


and supply chains of the offshore oil
and gas sector.
Maximising local economic activity will require
policymakers to make strategic choices on how existing Potential short-term investment
areas to support a just and inclusive
workers can be leveraged for high-growth areas transition include targeted education
and training schemes, industrial
upgrades and promotion of public-
private partnerships. Long-term
For near-term local employment, Maximising local economic activity investment areas include supplier
a study by GWEC, Global Wind will require policymakers to make development programmes and
Organisation and Renewables strategic choices on how existing national roadmaps to develop
Consulting Group found that 2.5 workers can be leveraged for industrial clusters in strategic areas of
persons were required to construct high-growth areas. Where possible, need.
and install 1 MW of offshore wind – an re-skilling offshore oil and gas
indication of potential job creation for workers for the growing wind sector
already licensed projects. should be a priority to encourage
low-carbon economic growth
Once the wind farm is connected, and competitiveness. This is also
jobs in operations and maintenance a fair response to labour market
(O&M) last over the lifetime of disruptions from the energy transition
the project – roughly 25 years for and pandemic, including dislocation
offshore wind. O&M spans a variety of jobs for offshore oil and gas
of needs, from contract management workers.
to wind turbine maintenance to
offshore logistics. As well, remote Outside of manufacturing turbine
automated control is increasingly components, offshore wind
employed in O&M, via a SCADA generates jobs in the manufacturing
system, radio telemetry and of steel for foundations, substations
artificial intelligence applications. and installation vessels, sub-sea
These areas require highly skilled cables to evacuate electricity from
workers with a background in data offshore farms to onshore grids and
science, mechanical and computer trucks and vessels for transport of
engineering and telecommunications. equipment and workers. All these
areas can leverage the capabilities

GWEC.NET 29
Looking Beyond 2030
Beyond the next decade, key far beyond current forecasts roadmapping and workshops. (see
government and industry bodies from international institutions, but page 74)
are setting their sights even according to OREAC, reaching this
ambitious target would be possible Progress made over the next ten
higher for offshore wind. The EU’s
with strong collaboration between years will lay the foundation for
staggering 450 GW aim by 2050
government and industry, policy how high and how far offshore wind
foresees industrial clusters in the
stability, market transparency and can scale in the decades beyond.
North Sea (with nearly half of the
responsible development, allowing With strong economics, exciting
targeted capacity), Atlantic Ocean,
offshore wind to thrive among other technology evolution and growing
Baltic Sea and southern European
sustainable ocean uses. interest from coastal markets around
waters. Installations will be mainly
the world, offshore wind is set to be a
concentrated in the UK, Netherlands,
World Bank’s ESMAP Offshore Wind game-changer in the global energy
France, Germany, Denmark and
Development Program, launched in transition.
Poland, with several other EU markets
March 2019, targets the acceleration
home to double-digit volumes.
of offshore wind development in non-
The Ocean Renewable Energy OECD countries around the world. As
Action Coalition (OREAC) is a global a partner of this programme, GWEC
group of leading offshore wind works with the World Bank to engage
developers, technology providers policymakers on recognising and
and stakeholders including GWEC, delivering the offshore wind potential
launched in December 2019 in in their market through national
response to the UN High Level Panel
for Sustainable Ocean Economy’s
call for ocean-based climate
action. OREAC envisions offshore
wind reaching 1.4 TW of installed Progress made over the next 10 years will lay the
capacity by 2050, driven by the
foundation for how high and how far offshore wind
sector’s ability to drive investment,
generate jobs and severely cut can scale in decades beyond.
emissions worldwide. This goes

30 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


TAKING OFFSHORE GLOBAL

GWEC.NET 31
Part 1. Lessons learnt

a. Support scheme

From 2 GW of offshore wind installed Renewable Obligation Certifications


Support schemes in key offshore wind markets
capacity in 2009 to nearly 30 GW
in 2019, offshore wind has grown Key Market Former Schemes Current Schemes Upcoming Schemes
Feed-in-Tariff
exponentially over the past decade,
UK n/a Guaranteed price auctions with
benefiting from technological Premium Tariff
advancements, declining costs and Denmark
strong support schemes. Most of Germany Demonstration Incentive Program

this growth has been concentrated The Netherlands n/a Contract for Difference (CfD)
in the UK, Germany, mainland China, Taiwan
Denmark, Belgium and Netherlands. Competitive Bidding
China
Particularly around the North Sea, Auctions with Zero-subsidy
Japan n/a
a bedrock of supply chain, finance,
innovation and expertise has Centralised Auctions
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
emerged. Now, the offshore market is Corporate PPAs with T-REC (Taiwan
taking off in Asia and North America, Beginning with federal support for Renewable Energy Certification)
with promising developments in demonstration projects, the sector
Premium Tariff through Tendering
Pacific, Latin America and Africa in has evolved towards Contract for System
the medium-to-long term. Difference (CfD) mechanisms and
even zero-subsidy bids in certain Auction with celling price regulated
Over the last 10 years, policy stability, markets. Of these, the CfD scheme
financial support schemes and Feed-in-Premium (SDE)
has delivered large volumes in UK, the
innovation clusters have improved offshore wind market leader (below),
the economics and scalability of accounting for competitive pricing
offshore wind, moving it from an and market reference pricing while
emerging technology to a critical part granting revenue certainty over a long
of global decarbonisation roadmaps. duration.[2]
[2] Probable Upcoming Scheme; GWEC Analysis

32 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


UK Denmark Germany The Netherlands
• The Renewables Obligation (RO/ROC), • Denmark financed RE projects through • The FiT was introduced in Germany • During 2003-2007, MEP subsidy
a subsidy scheme for large renewable the PSO (Public Service Obligation) under the German Renewable Energy (Milieukwaliteit Elektriciteitsproductie
electricity projects applied in 2002, tariff. During the liberalisation of the Act (EEG) that came into force in April subsidie) was implemented through two
supported deployment of 5 GW offshore Danish electricity sector (2000-2002), 2000. It provided greater funding policy instruments: FiT and a reduced
wind installation until March 2017. a guaranteed price with balancing support to RE operators through two ecotax.
subsidy for the first 10 years from the FiT funding models: Basic Model and • Although MEP FiT was effective, it cost
• Currently, the UK employs a CfD
grid connection and premium FiT with Acceleration Model. The EEG has been too much for the government without
scheme, introduced in 2013 under the
balancing subsidy until 20 years was modified several times since then and leading to decrease the amount of FiT
Electricity Market Reform, which: 1)
provided. This was followed by: 1) remained applicable as the guideline for support in five years (2003-2007). Thus,
Provides direct protection from volatile
Feed-in-premium for up to 22,000 full wind farms. Following the EEG Reform it was replaced with Sustainable Energy
wholesale prices to consumers and
load hours, with balancing subsidy for (EEG 2017) in 2017, the tariff-based Incentive Scheme (SDE: Feed-in Premium)
developers and 2) Incentivises the
the entire life through the competitive auction was made compulsory for for the period of 2008-2011 intending
upfront investment costs for offshore
tendering process; 2) FiT for up to offshore wind projects. to develop at least 450 MW of offshore
project developers.
50,000 full load hours (i.e. ~11-12 wind project before 2011. With lead-
• While guaranteed support schemes
years of operation), wherein connection time between the submission of three
shifted to an auction-based mechanism
to the grid was an additional subsidy application in 2009 and the realization
in 2017, Germany had two zero-
given to offshore wind farms and paid of a project, Dutch government
subsidy bids until 2018. No schedule
by consumers. supposed projects expensive despite
for offshore wind project allocation was
there was sufficient budget hence, it did
• In 2016 an agreement established that provided during 2019-2020.
not lead to installation of new capacities
the PSO tariff would be phased out from • From 2021, Germany plans to hold until 2011.
2017-2022 and projects would be a centralised auction model* to ease • In 2011, the Netherlands established
financed through national budget. project financing risk, with the annual a tendering scheme with subsidies
• In November 2019, Denmark chose the volume caps of 700-900 MW for (premium FiT) under the Dutch
CfD model for the Thor offshore wind bids[3][3]. Sustainable Energy Incentive Scheme
farm (800-1000MW) under which (SDE+), targeting 4.5 GW offshore
subsidies in the form of a price premium wind power capacity by 2023. Through
[3] To latest note: German Federal Council
for a 20-year period will be provided. (Bundesrat) did not accept the Centralised the auction competing for lowest price
This model would encourage investors offshore wind tendering model with open
in a number of rounds, two first offshore
arms at its latest session on 3 July 2020. The
to invest for upcoming projects for the Council found the new model, introduced in wind projects were secured at Borssele
development of two energy islands a bill amending the existing Offshore Wind sites in 2016.
totalling 5GW by 2030 and the up to Act (WindSeeG), should go more along the
lines of CfDs as Council referred to tendering • Soon after the target announcement, a
1GW Hesselo offshore wind farm. systems such as CfDs as low-risk in terms of prerequisite target of ‘40% cost reduction
project costs and its significant contribution to
maintaining the diversity of players. https:// over the period 2015-2019’ was
www.offshorewind.biz/2020/07/06/ achieved in first phase tenders during
germany-federal-council-recommends-against-
proposed-offshore-wind-tendering-model/
2017, following the German precedent
of zero-subsidy bids at Hollandse Kust.

GWEC.NET 33
Taiwan Mainland China Japan
• For the implementation of targets • The Renewable Energy Law was • Following the approval of the
set in its “Thousand Wind Turbines released in 2006, as the foundation for Renewable Energy Bill in 2011, Japan
Promotion Project”, Taiwan offered policy of offshore wind power planning introduced a FiT for wind energy in June
a “Demonstration Incentive Program” and development, economic incentive 2012. At the time, offshore wind was
grant scheme designed to award two policies, grid connection policy and priced the same as onshore, although
offshore wind farm projects in 2012. A technical standards. that has since changed. In March
guaranteed PPA with the FiT mechanism • China’s first round of concession bidding 2014, the Ministry of Economy Trade
was provided since 2013 with gradual started in 2010. In 2014, FiTs were and Industry (METI) announced new
reduction in FiT rates. introduced for offshore wind farms (CNY wind tariffs for 2014/15 (¥22/kWh (€
• To capture cost reductions, a competitive 0.85/kWh for offshore projects, CNY 0.17/kWh) for onshore and ¥36/kWh
bidding process with lower FiT rates was 0.75/kWh for intertidal projects). (€0.28/kWh) for offshore) for 20 years.
introduced in 2018 and the offshore Although the purchase prices were high,
• Following the new regulation released
wind target was increased to 5.5 GW complex permitting, and approvals
in 2018, offshore projects approved in
by 2025, Initial 3.5 GW out of 5.5 made wind energy development a
2019 and 2020 will go to competitive
GW is allocated through FiT and 2 GW daunting process in Japan.
auction, with the price cap set at CNY
is allocated through the Competitive 0.80/kWh and CNY 0.75/kWh • In November 2018, Japan introduced
Bidding to drive down the price. respectively. In January 2020, the competitive bids for pre-identified
According to recent announcement, Chinese central government announced promotion zones in a new national
the next 10 GW offshore wind it would completely stop subsidies for framework for offshore wind projects.
auctions (termed Round 3) will likely be offshore wind from 2022 onward, Under the Act, developers will compete
conducted across two phases with the but subsidies provided by provincial not just on tariff, but also on the The seven markets above (the UK,
first phase starting in 2021. governments are encouraged to provide suitability of their occupancy plans in Denmark, Germany, Netherlands,
• To address the effects of FiT reduction continuity of support. promotion zones. mainland China, Taiwan, and
and support project financing, corporate • In March 2020, METI announced FIT Japan) represent more than
PPAs can be a driver in Taiwan. prices for fiscal year 2020. This sets 27 GW of installed offshore
off from FiT to auction system for fixed
capacity, as of 2019, driven by a
bottom offshore wind power and floating
combination of support schemes.
offshore wind at 36 ¥/kWh, to further
boost investor interest. As the economics of offshore
wind strengthened, permitting
timelines eased and capacity
targets increased, support schemes
gradually transitioned towards
mechanisms that encourage market
competition while providing long-
term price visibility.

34 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Case study: UK’s CfD model delivering high volumes at low costs

Offshore wind is a monumental (strike price). It therefore creates decline, driven by the affirmed 40
success story for the UK, which is predictability for project owners GW by 2030 target.
home to around one-third of the total by guaranteeing a price for power
resource potential in the EU[4]. The generated, while reducing exposure The mechanism is being employed
Renewables Obligation (RO) was the to wholesale price risk. in other markets too. Poland has
first support mechanism for offshore proposed a CfD model in draft
wind, coming into effect in 2002 and The CfD model has steadily legislation for its first phase of
obligating UK electricity suppliers delivered high volumes of offshore procurement ending December 2022.
to source power from renewable wind capacity while driving down Denmark has agreed to award Thor
sources. Up to 5 GW of offshore wind costs, including grid charges, to Offshore Wind farm through CfD and
was procured under the RO until below €46/MWh (£41.7) in the 2019 will launch a tendering process in
2017. round 3, down from €154/MWh Q3 2020. To reach 20 GW by 2030,
(£120) in the 2015 round 1. The Germany is reviewing different
Under the Electricity Market UK’s Offshore Sector Deal foresees auction models, with the wind
Reform (EMR) planned in 2013, the offshore wind costs will further industry pushing for CfD.
government targeted reliable and
affordable clean energy sources,
introducing a transition from the UK support scheme - CfD rounds leading to cost reduction for offshore wind
RO to CfD mechanism. CfD is a
MW EUR/MWh 200
private contract between a low- 6000 5,500
carbon electricity generator and the
5000 153.9
government-owned Low Carbon 146.2 150
Contracts Company (LCCC), which 4000
limits the requirement for subsidies.
100
The generator receives support 3000
81.2 2,336
when remuneration is lower than the
2000
agreed tariff (set based on reference 46.0 50
860 62.4
wholesale prices) and returns the 1000 714
448
profit to the state when remuneration
0
is higher than the pre-agreed price 0
2015 CfD 2015 CfD 2017 CfD 2017 CfD 2019 CfD
Round 1 Round 1 Round 2 Round 2 Round 3
[4] https://www.irena.org/documentdownloads/ Delivery Delivery Delivery Delivery Delivery
publications/gwec_uk.pdf 2017/18 2018/19 2021/22 2022/23 2025

GWEC.NET 35
Case study: The Netherlands - specific conditions for zero-subsidy bids

The Netherlands’ Energy Agreement the Hollandse Kust Noord offshore Affairs is targeting bidding with and model has been widely deployed
for Sustainable Growth announced wind farm zone in April 2020 that without subsidies to deliver its target as it limits the burden of subsidies
a 4.5 GW offshore wind target by is one of three offshore wind areas of 1GW new installations per year for government and consumers and
2023, prompting the inclusion of chosen by the Dutch government from 2023-2030. This scheme would hedges the risk of exposure to volatile
offshore wind in the SDE+ regulation to be developed by 2023, as part of account for variance in project site wholesale power prices or negative
(Stimulating Renewable Energy). the country’s Energy Agreement for complexity and technical/permitting pricing as well as creating revenue
SDE+ is a support scheme wherein sustainable growth. requirements, while recognising the certainty. Such procurement schemes
the government provides both role of revenue stability in sustaining which provide long-term visibility and
guarantees and risk reductions to The risk profile of zero-subsidy bids investor confidence to generate a stronger investment cases will be key
renewable energy developers via a mean higher financing costs – as steady pipeline of projects. to scaling offshore wind to emerging
tendering scheme with subsidies. much as 2.5% - making the scheme markets, particularly at the volumes
suitable only for specific projects Support schemes have been one necessary to drive system-wide
With a 40% cost reduction achieved under the right market conditions.[5] of the drivers of the offshore wind decarbonisation.
in the first SDE+ tender in 2016, the In the future, the Ministry of Economic market in Europe to date. The CfD
Netherlands launched its first zero-
subsidy offshore wind tender in 2017
and awarded it in 2018 (see Figure Falling offshore wind cost to zero-subsidy bids in Netherland
2[2]) to Vattenfall for Hollandse Kust
MW EUR/MWh
Zuid site mainly due to: the availability 73
of larger turbines which reduced 760 80
800
752 732 740
capital costs; and reductions in project 70
700
risk via the government assuming 600 60
55 44
responsibility and cost for grid 500 50
connections. Following a second zero- 400 40
subsidy bid in 2019, the Hollandse 300 30
Kust Zuid site recently reached 200 20
Zero Zero
FID, becoming the world’s largest 100 bid bid 10
subsidy-free offshore wind farm at 19
0 0
1.5GW, due to be commissioned 2016 2016 2017 2018 2019
Borselle 1+2 Borselle 3+4 Hollandse Kust Innovation tender - Hollandse
in 2023. The Dutch government 1+2 Borselle V Kust 3+4
has also organized the tender for

[5] https://renews.biz/59118/negative-bidding-could-endanger-german-offshore/

36 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


b. Industrial development and job creation

Offshore wind has already proven chain through steady public-sector demonstrated that active dialogue
itself as an affordable, scalable, zero- steering and investment in R&D. between government and industry
carbon energy source. It also has Germany’s offshore wind workforce and a steady pipeline of projects can
the capacity to generate enormous has grown with government generate supply chain investments
socioeconomic benefits, particularly investment in training programmes to transform local industry. In 2020
for coastal communities in close and apprenticeships, although the alone, new partnerships were
proximity to projects. Maximising the industry could develop faster with the announced to domesticate the
economic growth potential of offshore right enabling policies. More detailed production of nacelles, wind turbine
wind has required a collaborative cases on the UK, Denmark and blades and the first Taiwan-built
approach between government Germany are presented below. offshore wind installation vessel, the
and industry. This approach aims to Green Jade.
upgrade market design, set clear Despite being an emerging offshore
long-term capacity targets, undertake wind market, Taiwan has already
forward-planning in infrastructure
and interconnections as well as
deliver collective investment in skilled People:
Ideas:
Skills; Workforce
workforces and a local supply chain. System Management and
data; Diversity in
Optimisation Task Group
workforce; Health and
Important insights can be gained (SMOTG); RD&D; UK Business Safety; Knowledge;
from the experience of leading Intellectual Property Environment: RD&D workforce;
European offshore wind markets, Increase UK Supply Apprenticeship
which demonstrate the opportunities Chain and export;
Increase UK Content in
and potential barriers for fostering the capital expenditure
industrial development in the offshore Infrastructure: phase; Improve
Places:
wind sector. The UK’s “Offshore Cumulative infrastructure access for SMEs
Coordinate to Bolster
Wind Sector Deal” emphasises high investment of over
regional clusters
£40bn to 2030;
ambition, industrial clustering and
Collaborate for
government support and dialogue integrated energy system
with industry. Denmark, with first-
mover status in the wind industry,
has fostered an advanced supply

GWEC.NET 37
Case Study: UK Sector Deal steers industrial growth

The trajectory of the UK’s offshore economy and public. As a result hubs in the UK to de-bottleneck
wind sector is guided by the of strong collaboration between capacity constraints, allowing
Industrial Strategy Offshore Wind government and industry, the first-of- them to deliver large volumes
Sector Deal, published in March its-kind integrated approach to sector while meeting non-binding local
2019. The document outlines the development is built on five pillars: content requirements in this deal. In
target to reach 30 GW of offshore ideas, people, infrastructure, business partnershop with the government,
wind capacity by 2030, which was environment and places (see figure the offshore wind sector supported
extended to an ambitious 40 GW below). 7,200[6] full-time equivalent jobs in
by the end of 2019 by the incoming communities around the country
government, and a roadmap for Scale has been key to successful between 2014-2018. Through
delivering benefits to the UK localisation in the Sector Deal. Top manufacturing hub, SGRE’s wind
OEMs have invested in manufacturing turbine blade factory works created
1,000 jobs in 2016 at Hull, while in
Cumulative jobs in the UK offshore wind sector 2018 MHI Vestas employed 1,100
new employees for its expanded
Specialist Transport Construction & Installation Decommissioning/Repowering wind turbine blade factory at Isle of
Operation & Maintenance Specialist Support Services & Other Wight.[7]
Manufacture & Design Site planning & Development
As a result of strong collaboration
between government and industry,
40000
36,000 700 the first-of-its-kind integrated
35000 approach to sector development is
30000 27,400 10,000 built on five pillars: ideas, people,
500

25000
400 infrastructure, business environment
18,500
400
8,300 and places.
20000 300
8,300

15000 6,300 5,300 4,000


100

10000 10,000 250 3,300 2,700 5,800


50 2,100 4,900
3,300 1400
5000 1400
2,800 6,800
1,600 5,400
2,000 3,500
[6] Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy Final
0 Estimates, Office for National Statistics (January
2017 2022 2027 2032 2019)
[7] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/
offshore-wind-sector-deal/offshore-wind-sector-deal

38 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Case Study: Denmark as a model for public commitment and ambition

The Danish wind cluster has today offers around 30,000 jobs employment all across Denmark.
become a world-leading example and is responsible for 4 percent of Wind industry exports accounted for
of industrial growth fostered by Denmark’s GDP. nearly 4% of total exports in Denmark
long-term political commitment to in 2017.
wind energy. Following the global Since landscarcity became a problem
energy crisis in the 1970s, Denmark in Denmark, local developers started However, the successful story of
pivoted to wind power with early building offshore wind farms from Danish wind industry doesn’t stop
subsidies of equipment, and later a 1991. The liberalisation of the energy there. With a net-zero emissions
feed-in-tariff. It is now home to top market led to the creation of the commitment by 2050, the Danish
turbine manufacturers, top offshore modern DONG Energy. Following the government has set a target to install
wind farm developer, excellent R&D divestment of its oil and gas business at least 2.4 GW across three new
facilities and strong industrial cluster in 2017 to focus 100% on green offshore wind farms by 2030.[8] In June
collaboration. energy, the world’s largest offshore 2020, the Danish parliament approved
wind farm owner-operator changed an ambitious new climate act that
Apart from subsidies on price, the the name from Danish Oil and Natural includes building two energy islands,
government also supported the Gas (DONG) to Ørsted. one in the North Sea and another in
sector by investing in R&D. The test the capacity will
and certification center for turbines As the world’s largest offshore wind be added before
funded by the state were opened port, Esbjerg in western Denmark is Baltic Sea, with a combined capacity 2030. In total, Denmark has mapped
by Risoe National Laboratory, which a hub for offshore wind exports, with of 5 GW, and installing another 1 GW out areas suitable for development
has become a part of the Danish turbines leaving the port for offshore offshore wind farm, the second of of up to 18 GW of offshore wind
Technical University (DTU) since wind farms in the UK, Germany, and the three 1 GW offshore wind farms capacity. Guided by these targets,
2008. These early R&D investments Netherlands. To further support the proposed in the Energy Agreement the government estimates that up
formed the bedrock for companies domestic and regional offshore wind 2018. As the world’s first energy to 2,200 temporary jobs and 550
like Vestas and Siemens Wind Power project development, other Danish island, it will connect offshore wind permanent jobs could be created on
(now Siemens Gamesa Renewable ports like Grenaa, Roenne and Hvide and host electricity storage and an annual basis up to 2030.[9]
Energy). More than 500 suppliers Sande have expanded either to Power-to-X (excess electricity will
are present within the current Danish support offshore project construction be converted into green hydrogen
wind cluster, spanning the whole or to serve as project O&M base. The and processed into fuels for aircrafts,
value chain from lightning tests to Danish wind sector is a powerhouse trucks, ships and heating). It is
foundation manufacturing. The cluster for the Danish economy and creates expected that 7 GW of new offshore

[8] https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Vindenergi/offshore_wind_tendet_thor_marketing.pdf
[9] https://www.groennejob.dk/nyheder-fra-groenne-job/groenne-job.

GWEC.NET 39
Danish wind cluster (and ports), mapping of offshore wind development

Hvide
Nordsøen III
Sande

Hesselø

Nordsøen II Grenaa
Vest Nordsøen II+III

Mid-Jutland: Heart of
Nordsøen I
Danish Wind Cluster

Roenne

Leading
offshore
Krigers Flak Nord
port-Esbjerg
Bornholm I
Krigers Flak Syd

Bornholm II

Source: Danish Energy Agency, GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

40 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Case Study: Germany expresses ambition for growth, but needs policy stability and forward-planning

Although its onshore wind market happen by the end of 2019, it was not ports such as Bremerhaven and
been rocky, Germany’s offshore implemented.[11] Cuxhaven on the North Sea hosting
wind market holds strong promise large turbine manufacturing facilities,
and has already delivered 7.5 GW Finally in June 2020, the Federal foundation systems and shipyards for
of capacity. The sector employs Ministry of Economy and Energy offshore wind services. Jobs have also
around 27,000 people, fosters EUR drafted a bill outlining a target of been created across the value chain
9 billion in annual turnover and has 20 GW by 2030, which would then in inland cities, for the manufacturing
attracted a cumulative EUR 25 billion double to 40 GW by 2040.[12] The of bearings, gearboxes, generators
in investment over the last 20 years.[10] bill followed agreements by federal and other components. To deliver
It is also a pillar of the country’s and state authorities, as well as the industrial development potential
energy transition and plan to create a Transmission System Operators ahead, the government must remain
hydrogen economy. (TSOs) to better capitalise on steadfast in its new offshore wind
Germany’s offshore wind resource commitments, and implement a
Key to signalling strong public potential and address related grid sensible procurement scheme that
commitment to growing the offshore needs. But it also introduced a two- can sustain investments in the local
sector is policy stability. The German round tendering process designed supply chain.
government has amended its sector to drive bid prices down, which
development goals twice in the past: could exert additional pressure on
It initially outlined 10 GW by 2020 an already strained domestic supply
and 25 GW by 2030 in its Renewable chain.
Energy Sources Act (EEG), but
reduced these targets to 6.5 GW Growth of Germany’s offshore wind
and 15 GW, respectively, in 2014, sector at the scale of 40 GW by
due to the high prices of the early 2040 could potentially address the
offshore wind sector. As offshore capital and labour displacement
costs declined dramatically, pressure experienced in its struggling onshore
increased on the government to wind sector. Offshore wind has
raise its targets; while public sector already brought large benefits to
representatives indicated this would coastal regions in Germany, with

[10] https://www.wind-energie.de/themen/anlagentechnik/offshore/; https://windeurope.org/newsroom/press-releases/german-offshore-wind-can-deliver-more-legal-


framework-for-at-least-20-gw-by-2030-required/
[11] https://www.focus.de/regional/schleswig-holstein/energie-offshore-offensive-fuer-mehr-windraeder-auf-nord-und-ostsee_id_11216814.html
[12] https://www.offshorewind.biz/2020/06/01/germany-drafts-offshore-wind-bill-with-40-gw-by-2040-goal-dynamic-tendering-process/

GWEC.NET 41
c. Grid Connection
The expansion of the global of the additional capacity required, Equinor’s floating Hywind Tampen
offshore wind market presents a WindEurope estimates that 380 GW project, for instance, will be located
formidable challenge to electricity of offshore wind could be developed 140 kilometres off the Norwegian
grids, requiring forward-planning in the North Sea region alone, coast – major investments, planning
for transmission infrastructure and and would need to be integrated capacity and expertise are needed to
interconnections, grid-fault and into mainland grids, in order to ensure reliable and expeditious grid
stability analysis, priority dispatch achieve climate neutrality targets connections.
for renewables and a flexible set by the European Commission.[13]
system to integrate large volumes of With more and larger wind farms Offshore wind grid connection
renewable energy. As an indication expanding farther into the sea – normally consists of two parts: 1.)
offshore wind turbines are connected
via 33 or 66 kV inter-array cables
Grid connection responsiblity in different offshore wind markets to an offshore AC substation, and
2.) then the AC offshore substation
33 or 66 kV inter-array cables
is connected via a 132-220 kV
220 kV HVAC cables
HVAC export cable with an onshore
Existing onshore grid
substation, from where electricity
Offshore High voltage grid to be connected to the mainland
substation AC
Substation
grid[14]. The scope of responsibility
for these connections, and up to
Dunes Extension
what point, varies between markets
Land cable High voltage grid
and falls either to the transmission
Inter-array cables Sea cable
system operator (TSO) or the project
developer.

Offshore wind farm Connection between offshore AC substation and onshore grid Existing onshore grid
[13] https://windeurope.org/about-wind/reports/our-
energy-our-future/
Denmark [14] The transmission system has two types: AC and
Germany DC. HVAC is generally employed for shorter
Netherlands Denmark (from 2018) distances, while HVDC connections are generally
Belgium (From 2018) The UK employed for longer distances to the main grid. In
France (Round-3, 2019) Belgium (2011, 2013) the German North Sea, for example, many offshore
US
wind farms are first connected with an offshore
AC substation and then the offshore AC substation
France (Round-1, 2)
can be connected to grid at shore through HVDC
Taiwan converter station and HVDC cables.
Mainland China
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, TenneT

42 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


In leading European offshore wind TSOs to take the responsibility for agreement with government.[17] The
markets like Germany, Denmark the connection between offshore AC CfD scheme incorporates negotiation
(up until 2018), the Netherlands, substation and the mainland grid. and prequalification to ensure project
Belgium (from 2018), and France feasibility, while allowing for market
(from Round-3, 2019), the connection In 2018, Denmark decided to shift competition and balance of price
from the offshore AC substation responsibility for grid connection risk between the developer and the
to the mainland grid has been for three offshore wind farms off-taker (see page 30). The resulting
the responsibility of the TSO, commissioned up to 2030 from the revenue stability has been shown
mandated by national government TSO to the project developer.[15] to support the investment case for
(see Figure 2).This has generally While construction and operation of projects where developers must
been a successful model which the offshore substation and export finance and develop substation and
ensures a coordinated approach cables was previously managed cable assets.
to building offshore assets and by the Danish TSO Energinet, this
onshore reinforcements, while TSOs activity will be included within the
can access financing costs which scope of tenders for three North Sea
tend to be more favourable. In the projects, including the 800 MW - 1
UK, US, Denmark (from 2019), and GW Thor wind farm scheduled to be
Taiwan, project developers pay for awarded in 2021.[16] The developer
the connection from the wind farm will be responsible for financing the
to the onshore substation, while transmission assets, which would be
in Mainland China developers are calculated within its bid for a two-
still responsible for financing and way Contract for Difference (CfD)
constructing transmission facilities agreement.
for connecting the offshore project to This model is similar to the UK,
the grid, although local government where responsibility and cost
in Yangjiang, Guangdong province is for grid connection are included
considering to separating connection within tenders for a long-term CfD
into two parts and requiring the

[15] https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Vindenergi/brief_tender_for_thor_offshore_wind_farm_30march2019.pdf
[16] Energinet will remain responsible for the financing and construction of the onshore substation to the transmission
grid.
[17] Developers can either take responsibility for construction of the offshore transmission assets before transferring
them to a third-party operator, or commission a third-party operator to construct the assets. To date, the de facto
model has been for project developers to be responsible for financing, development and construction of the
transmission assets. The developer’s CAPEX costs for transmission assets would be recovered through payments
from the operator of the assets after completion; the operator in turn receives revenue from the grid authority for
operation, maintenance and decommissioning of these assets.

GWEC.NET 43
A 2019 study by DIW Econ, guidance that a model should
commissioned by Ørsted, found prioritise time and cost-efficiency
that the UK market design, where without burdening the economics of
development of grid connection the tendering process for offshore
is included within a competitive wind – particularly as cost reduction
tender, reduces overall costs of the potential for grid connections is
transmission assets.[18] A model lower than that for offshore wind
integrating grid connection into technology.[20]
the overall project tender also
incentivises cost reduction and Transmission is a vital part of the
allows for synergies in planning and sector’s development, ensuring that
construction between the offshore communities benefit from a secure
wind farm and transmission system. and reliable supply of power from
offshore wind. Given its centrality
These findings can be considered to the growth of offshore wind,
alongside another study by Navigant grid connection must be carefully
in 2019, wherein analysis of data considered by policymakers in the
from the UK, Denmark, France and context of local market design and
the Netherlands found that making cost/investment dynamics. Whether
the TSO responsible resulted in integrated into a capacity tender or
lower CAPEX/MW of installed grid shouldered by the TSO, the risks and
connections, as well as lower costs costs for grid buildout should be
for cables and onshore substations adequately organised in a way that
(although costs for offshore platforms will not dampen the investment case
are generally comparable).[19] for offshore wind or slow down its
deployment.
Each market has its own distinct
policy, consenting and fiscal
characteristics. There is no
universal model for grid connection
responsibility, but rather general

[18] Construction and then operation of the offshore transmission assets are competitively tendered in the UK.
[19] https://guidehouse.com/-/media/www/site/downloads/energy/2019/2019-navigant-comparison-offshore-
grid-development.pdf
[20] https://guidehouse.com/-/media/www/site/downloads/energy/2019/2019-navigant-comparison-offshore-
grid-development.pdf

44 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


d. Cost reduction and energy source and is expected to
supply chain play a crucial role to support the
global energy transition. Although
Offshore wind power is a unique great progress has been made in
opportunity that promises carbon- cost reduction, especially in the
free, utility-scale power generation past decade, political pressure
and contributes enormously to the now requires the sector to become
security of electricity supply. Policy subsidy-free and to compete head-to-
support such as feed-in tariffs (FiT) head with fossil fuel-based energy on
and renewable obligation certificates economic terms.
(ROCs) have kickstarted the offshore
wind industry in many countries from According to BNEF, the global
the beginning. After three decades offshore wind average LCOE has
of development, offshore wind has dropped 67.5% to US$84/MWh since
grown from a niche to a reliable 2012. Cost reduction of offshore wind

Levelised cost of electricity offshore wind


USD/MWh
255
260
240
220
200
180
-67.5%
160
140
120
100 83
80 -30.1%
58
60
40
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e

Methodology: BNEF LCOE scope for offshore wind farms includes all transmission costs up to the project’s onshore
substation, which is also included. The outlook from 2020-2025 is a fitted curve best reflecting future levelized auctions
bids (it mixes auctions including and excluding the cost of transmission to shore).
Source: BNEF LCOE Database Jan 2020, GWEC Market Intelligence

GWEC.NET 45
is set to continue and expected to hit content requirements (LCRs) – growing industry. The offshore wind
US$58/MWh by 2025 thanks to the regulatory provisions on how much of industry in France is an example of
scale provided by GW-level projects, a wind project must be manufactured this.
the newly introduced supersized locally.
offshore wind turbines and the Overall, to drive cost reduction with
reduction in the cost of capital. While on the one hand, an inward- a strong supply chain demands high
looking perspective sees LCR as a commitment from governments and
Recent auction results show that means to maximise local job creation the industry. The UK offshore wind
offshore wind has become already and economic prosperity, on the industry is a success story of global
competitive in some mature European other hand, an outward-looking reach which has created jobs and
markets (for example, zero-subsidy view, sees LCR as an instrument economic growth, as well as billions
auctions completed in Germany and to drive down costs and facilitate in export value.
the Netherlands) and is on the cusp domestic companies’ integration into
of competitiveness even in some less international supply chains.
mature markets (notably France).
Experience in Europe has proven
From an industry life-cycle that strict local content requirements
perspective, the current stage of frustrate economic hopes of wind
offshore wind can be classified as the industry players by raising the cost
growth phase, to accelerate further of electricity and creates inefficiency
cost reduction and eventually become by enforcing local suppliers to play a
completely subsidy free, a strong much bigger role during the take-off
project pipeline, long-term visibility, of the offshore deployment in many
and a well-managed global supply new and emerging markets.
chain that increases competition and
capacity will all be paramount to the For an industry such as offshore wind
growth of the wind industry as well as that naturally offers a high degree
technology-based innovation. of localisation due to the large size
of components, such as blades and
Conflicting paradigms of development towers, and complicated and costly
logistics, overly restrictive local
Concurrent to driving down LCoE, content requirements are not justified.
driven by political motivations to Overly restrictive requirements can
justify financial support, the wind be counter-productive to the original
industry is challenged by local intention and ultimately, slow down a

46 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Case Study: UK - Volume drives down costs, and localisation follows

The UK is now an offshore wind leader


and export hub. From its first 4 MW New installed offshore capacity versus offshore LCOE*
pilot project in Blyth in 2000, to 9.7 MW and USD/MWh
GW of installed capacity today, the
143 1764
progress of the UK’s offshore wind 140 1715
is phenomenal. The UK Offshore 132
125 Average LCOE
Wind Sector Deal has done well for reduction per year: -12%
encouraging investment and attracting Average LCOE 111 1312
reduction per year: - 4%
commitments from turbine and
component manufacturers to build 87
capacity with its market certainty 854 78
813 72
by providing the right market and 752 733 66
regulatory frameworks that instilled 572
confidence for action to mitigate 458
50
potential supply chain bottleneck
impacts. 56

The UK has exemplified that with 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
an increased market certainty and
volume visibility, scale is one of the Aggregated UK content in 48%
43%
keys that support competition and TOTEX of wind projects

innovation in the supply chain to drive LCOE refers to projects signed during the given year, but not the LCOE of the installed volume: time lag between project signature
and installation is 4-5 years
competitiveness and reduce costs. Source: GWEC, BNEF H2 2018 Wind LCOE Update, BVG Associates, Renewable UK, Press, UK Office for National Statistics.
In retrospect, the cost of the latest
(third) CfD round in late 2019, fell by – cheaper than new gas and nuclear market share. With that, the increasing
around 30% compared to the second power. competition in the UK offshore market
round in 2017, and has fallen as much is expected to continue to drive cost
as 66% compared to the first round With current ambitions of 40 GW reduction through downward pressure
held in 2015. Projects are now being by 2030 and meeting the net-zero on pricing and via the benefits of scale,
delivered for as low as US$50/MWh carbon emissions target by 2050, the learning and innovation combined with
making offshore wind one of the lowest UK provides a large enough market socio-economic benefits such as local
cost options for new power in the UK to attract turbine manufacturers each job creation.
with a prediction of a reasonable

GWEC.NET 47
Achievements

For the period 2016 and 2021


investment in offshore wind in MHI Vestas expands its UK exports of offshore
the UK will total nearly GBP wind blade factory at Isle wind energy products and
19bn. This investment supports of Wight, set to deliver services expected to
thousands of jobs across the UK around 1,100 new jobs increase fivefold to GBP
in manufacturing, project and GBP 42 million in 2.6 billion.
development, construction and local economic benefits.
operations.

2016-21 2016 2018 2019 2030


Clearly, with the right
interventions and strategic
direction, the supply chain
can play its part in reducing
Siemens opens a GBP UK exports of offshore
costs, while at the same time
310 million wind turbine wind energy products and
creating many thousands of
blade factory that created services worth GBP 475
jobs in the UK.
1,000 jobs in Hull. million.

48 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Case Study: France - Top-down localisation slows down market with 2nd highest offshore wind potential in the EU

In many respects, France is an ideal


country for wind energy with 11 France levilised offshore wind auction bid prices
million square kilometres of marine 2018 $/MWh Tender I
territories on the English Channel, 300 Tender II
Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Tender III
Sea. As an indication of this potential, initial tariffs, expected COD

France’s long-term offshore wind 200


tariff cuts, project delays
potential is estimated to be 90 TWh
per annum. A total of six offshore wind
projects with a combined capacity 100
no local content, no
of 3 GW were selected in the Round transmission cost
1 tender in 2012 and the Round 2
tender in 2014 that has never taken 0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
off.
Commercial Operation Date

A fundamental issue that hampered Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Levelized price, takes into account tariff price and length, inflation, a merchant
progress was the need for tail assumption and a 25-year project lifetime. White dots represent other European markets.

renegotiation of earlier contracts


which priced at around EUR200/MWh,
Despite France’s huge potential and from SMEs in the region – the winning
a tariff that is over-priced for the
ambitious targets of 6 GW by 2020 price of EUR44/MWh came as an
French government in these days of
and to generate 15,000 direct and excellent news for the offshore wind
zero bidding. At the time the projects
indirect jobs, none of these outcomes outlook in France.
were awarded, such prices were
were accomplished mainly due to the
the norm as they needed to cover This case study exemplifies that
implementation of strict LCRs before
the cost of fulfilling the top-down without strict need for local content,
a local supply chain emerged.
localisation content requirements offshore wind projects can deliver at
(LCRs) that includes grid connections Nonetheless, in the latest Dunkirk competitive pricing and the industry
and an industrial component, offshore tender (June 2019), with the can be rebooted given the right
whereby the manufacturers linked to localisation rules drastically relaxed policy direction and frameworks in
the winning bids, Alstom (now part of – WTG are no longer requested to place.
GE), and Areva (now Adwen under procure locally, instead emphasize on
Siemens Gamesa), committed to certain share of investment to source
building local factories.

GWEC.NET 49
Case Study: China – Early termination of central government support forces the local industry to reach parity

China commissioned its first As of the end of 2019, China has On 23 January 2020, the Chinese
commercial offshore project, Donghai nearly 7 GW offshore wind in total central government announced
Bridge Wind Farm, in 2010. The installations, making it the third- it would cease subsidies for
market, however, was not ready to largest offshore wind market after the offshore wind from 2022 onward,
take off until the first offshore FiT UK and Germany. Thanks to a robust albeit subsidies from provincial
scheme and the National Offshore onshore wind supply chain and rapid governments are encouraged to
Wind Development Plan (2014-2016) growth in annual installations over the provide continuity for the sector.
were released by NEA (National past three years, the offshore wind
Energy Administration) in 2014. This supply chain in China has developed Although offshore wind CAPEX has
was followed in 2016 with joint release very quickly. To date, eight Chinese been reduced by 40-50% in China
of The Management Measures for turbine OEMs have released offshore over the past decade, the current
Offshore Wind Power Development turbines greater than 5 MW, of which LCOE for the Chinese offshore
and Construction by NEA and SOA six are listed among the world’s top market is still at the level of CNY 0.64/
(State Oceanic Administration), ten offshore wind turbine suppliers in kWh (EUR 0.08/kWh), according to
aligning guidelines between various 2019. State Grid Energy Research Institute
government bodies and stakeholders.

Within less than a decade of Donghai Evolution of Chinese offshore wind support schemes
Bridge, China passed the 1 GW 0.978
(Tariff for Donghai Bridge Project)
milestone for new offshore wind 1.0
installations in 2017, surpassing the
0.80
UK as the world’s leading offshore (FiT cap for projects approved in 2019)

market in new installations one year 0.8 0.85


(fixed FiT set in 2014)
later. Following a new policy released
0.75
by the Chinese National Development (FiT cap for projects
0.6 approved in 2020)
and Reform Commission (NDRC) in
May 2019, project developers and
investors are rushing to commission 0.4
their projects before the end of 2021 0.39-0.45
(parity, without
in order to capitalise on the current subsidy)

CNY 0.85/kWh FiT. 0.2


2010 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2022

Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

50 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Chinese offshore wind provinces and emerging offshore wind clusters

Liaoning

Yantai
(port in Penglai)
Shandong
Yancheng
(port in Dafeng)
Jiangsu
Naantong
(port in Rudong)
Zhejiang

Fujian
Fuzhou

Jieyang & Shantou


(port in Jieyang)
Guangdong
Yangjiang
(port in Yangjiang)

Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

GWEC.NET 51
(SGERI). In China, the parity tariff for
renewables is regulated to be set at
the same level as coal-fired power
generation, which varies by province.
At present, the tariff for electricity
generated by coal-fired power plants
in China’s coastal provinces is in the
range of CNY 0.39-0.45/kWh – at least
30% lower than the current offshore
wind LCOE.

Since no provincial government


has so far committed to post-2021
support scheme for offshore wind, the
local Chinese offshore wind industry
states that the early termination of
the central government FiT brings
great uncertainty for the sector in the
medium term.

GWEC Market Intelligence believes


that the termination of support by
central government is likely to force
the Chinese offshore wind industry
to reach grid parity earlier than
expected. The following factors may
mitigate the financial uncertainty
of subsidy-free procurement, and
further drive down LCOE:

Ambitious targets set by the coastal


provinces

Guangdong plans to build 30 GW


offshore wind by 2030, followed by

52 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Jiangsu (15 GW), Zhejiang (6.5 GW), 12MW offshore turbines from H2 will this cooperation help address
Fujian (5 GW) and Shandong (3 GW). 2021. current bottlenecks throughout
Other coastal provinces, namely the supply chain, it will also import
Liaoning, Hebei, Guangxi, Hainan and Industrialisation experience in project execution
Shanghai, also have their own offshore and operation from Europe through
The local offshore wind industry will
wind development plans, although foreign-local partnerships (for
benefit from the current investments
their targets are much lower than example, the joint venture between
made by leading turbine OEMs and
the five leading provinces. Offshore EDF Renewables and China Energy
key component suppliers along the
wind targets close to 60 GW by 2030 for two offshore wind projects located
coastal cities, as well as plans from
provides long-term visibility and in Jiangsu province).
the local port cities such as Yangjiang
scale for local industry. and Nantong to make themselves Conclusion
Technology innovation offshore wind manufacturing bases.
The Chinese offshore wind cluster China has already demonstrated
The average annual offshore wind is expected to be built along the rapid reduction in LCOE for onshore
turbine size in China in 2019 was coastline. wind via large magnitudes of volume
4.2 MW – 3 MW lower than Europe. and investment, a maturing supply
However, this is expected to change, Lessons learned from onshore wind chain and technological innovation.
as six Chinese turbine manufacturers Although the central government
China is the world’s largest
have introduced larger offshore manufacturing base for onshore is eager for local offshore wind
models of greater than8MW in the to become subsidy-free – and
wind, with a mature local supply
past 18 months. After a 10 MW PMG several factors are in place for
chain already in place. The Chinese
turbine prototype was rolled off the further cost reduction – GWEC
onshore wind industry has committed
production line at Dongfang Electric Market Intelligence believes that
to reaching grid parity by the end
and a 10 MW model released by post-2021 financial support by
of 2020 – earlier than any other
CSIC Haizhuang in 2019, Mingyang provincial governments should be
established onshore wind market. The
unveiled its MySE 11 MW-202 considered to support the transition.
offshore sector can greatly benefit
medium speed turbine in June 2020, A support scheme will be crucial to
from the onshore experience in this
making it the largest hybrid-drive ensuring that the Chinese offshore
transition.
turbine in the world. In addition, wind sector can remain on a steady
international player GE Renewable International cooperation path to achieve grid parity around
Energy is building a factory in 2025, and will bear insights for
Jieyang, Guangdong province, with The offshore wind installation rush other offshore markets on how to
the aim of producing its Haliade-X has already helped to accelerate balance government support with the
international cooperation. Not only maturation of local industry.

GWEC.NET 53
e. Health and safety Forecast installations (in MW) for key markets to 2024 and associated workforce
as a key to scaling requirements
global offshore Market Forecast installations (MW) Calculated workforce requirement
wind North America 5,720 14,300
Workforce safety is paramount China (mainland) 19,000 47,500
to the success and sustainability Taiwan 3,579 8,948
of offshore wind. As the industry Japan 860 2,150
expands its footprint in established Vietnam 1,100 2,750
and emerging offshore markets,
South Korea 560 1,400
the sector’s focus is to strive for an
Total 30,819 77,048
injury-free working environment.
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, GWO and RCG
Globally recognised regimes
of safety and technical training
standards have been developed to wind in China, Japan, Vietnam, South sustainably, making offshore wind a
the extent that the industry today Korea, Taiwan and the United States sector of choice.
can call upon almost 100,000 people presents a huge opportunity for the
industry to collaborate with owners Successes have been possible
trained to GWO standards in 40+
and primary contractors, policy through a commitment to
countries, around a third of whom
makers and wind energy associations collaboration and transparency.
are trained to work safely in offshore
to deploy established regimes that GWO standards have achieved
wind.
already work well in existing markets. almost universal acceptance in
In the recent report co-authored many established offshore wind
by Global Wind Organisation The goal is to support the safety markets, and as it grows into new
and the Global Wind Energy profile and working cultures in these markets, the industry is mindful of
Council Powering the Future – countries to help scale the industry existing systems of health and safety,
Global Offshore Wind Workforce
Outlook, six emerging markets
are forecasting over 31GW of new The industry today can call upon almost
installations between 2020-2024,
with an associated need for over 100,000 people trained to GWO standards in
77,000 trained workers (see table). 40+ countries
This imminent expansion of offshore

54 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


workforce regulations and legislation methodologies has been called for at
around the world. An open platform the very highest levels of the industry
for collaboration that acknowledges and early stage developments are in
these variables, can avoid any notion progress. Sometimes known in the
that perceived best practices are industry as ‘lagging indicators’, this
being imposed onto markets where data can help identify causal links
local experience about how to keep between work activities and injuries
people safe will often represent the or fatalities in the wind industry,
best-informed opinion. after the fact. They already exist to a
considerable degree of sophistication
Early signs of success include the on a company by company basis so
fast work by GWO’s China and the next step will be standardisation,
North American Committees. Large most likely led by organisations with
manufacturers and owner operators experience such as G+ Offshore
in these two markets use the tools Wind and Safety On, based in the
and methodologies GWO members UK, and the American and Canadian
designed to create training standards Wind Energy Associations. Steps to
and make them work better at formalise reporting between these
a regional level. Global training organisations and their members
standards like GWO contain learning will be challenging but fruitful in
objectives for skills and knowledge understanding and improving the
which generally apply everywhere, safety performance of the offshore
and the collaborative process to wind industry as it grows.
agree their deployment locally, is
helping them grow in scale as a Paul Robbins – Global Subject Matter
sustainable element of the supply Expert, HSE, Vestas. Chairman of
chain. Global Wind Organisation (GWO)

Of course, training is only a part of


the safety matrix in offshore wind.
Another urgent priority is to ensure
hazards are correctly identified, risk
assessed and mitigated. A system
of collecting incident data on a
global basis using standardised

GWEC.NET 55
Part 2. Emerging markets

Taiwan
Taiwan is heating up as the second- GW tranche was procured across a much volume will be allocated and to submarine cables to shipbuilding.
largest offshore wind market in the selection round and auction, the next when, is due to be published by end The industry must balance growth
Asia-Pacific region, after Mainland 10 GW (termed Round 3) will likely of this year, with the first phase of with local content requirements that
China. Ambitious capacity targets be conducted across two phases; the allocation conducted from Q2 2021 to are expected to be higher in Round
set by the DPP government have first phase (2026-2030) will prioritise Q2 2023. 3. In 2020, positive signs have already
attracted eager interest from leading projects at water depth of less than 50 been marked by announcements
offshore wind developers and metres. Critical to the steady progression of for an MHI Vestas-Tien Li blade
technology providers. Already, 128 the market will be the government’s manufacturing facility in Taichung,
MW of offshore capacity has been Following government delays due localisation strategy, which aims to an SGRE nacelle production facility
installed at Formosa 1, Taiwan’s first to COVID-19, a draft version of the consolidate the entire supply chain in Taichung and CDWE’s work on
commercial-scale offshore wind farm Round 3 framework, including how in Taiwan, from turbine components
in Miaoli County, and a further 109
MW is due to come online from the
Progression of Taiwan’s wind procurement mechanisms
Changhua County project by the end
of 2020. Round 3: Phase 2 (TBC)
• Auction for 5 GW
Offshore wind is a key component • 1 GW/year COD
of Taiwan’s green economy vision, Round 3: Phase 1 2031-2035
(2021-2023)
which charts a nuclear-free pathway • Three annual auctions
to generate 20% of electricity through for 5 GW total
Round 2 (2018)
renewable energy by 2025. The • Auction process • Priority to projects with
government is aiming to install 5.7 allocated 1,664 MW EIA and at <50m water
Round 1 (2018) • COD 2020-2025 depth
GW of offshore wind by 2025, and
• Selection process • 1 GW/year COD
in late 2019 announced that it would allocated 3,836 MW 2026-2030
double its ambitions to 10 GW over • COD 2020-2025
the 2026-2035 period. While the 5.7
3,836 MW 1,664 MW 5 GW 5 GW

56 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Market outlook for cumulative installed offshore wind capacity in Taiwan (MW)

10667
9667
8667
7667
6667
5667

3707
3357
2607
1707

128 237

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

the first Taiwan-built offshore wind promotion plan and a relatively open
installation vessel. But how flexible investment environment. Limited land
the localisation requirements are in space and high energy insecurity
the forthcoming Round 3 framework further compels Taiwan to look to
will be key to determining whether coastal zones for power production.
the nascent offshore wind industry
can develop into a sustainable and Power sector reform is also on the
competitive market. horizon, with amendments in 2017
to the Electricity Business Act which
Within the next decade, Taiwan will mandated the unbundling of utility
achieve more than 10 GW of installed Taipower’s generation, transmission
offshore wind capacity, becoming and distribution business, and the
an experienced market with an liberalisation of the electricity market
established domestic supply chain. to enable multiple business models
The sector is supported by a Feed- for direct procurement of renewable
in-Tariff, a four-year wind power energy.

Courtesy of Formosa 1 & Ørsted Group


GWEC.NET 57
Japan
Asia’s first offshore wind market at leading global players have now available until March 2014, when
crossroads formed joint ventures with local the Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Japanese companies and/or set up Industry (METI) approved the ¥36/
Japan’s offshore wind market has local operations. The coming period kWh (€0.28/kWh) FiT for offshore
taken time to develop, with the first will be crucial, as the wind industry wind. Despite the rate being the
pilot projects going into the water seeks to work with government to highest available anywhere for
back in 2003. In the years following create a strong sector based on large offshore wind, Japan only had 66
the Fukushima nuclear accident in volumes and competitive prices, MW of offshore wind installed by
2011, there was renewed commitment rather than a small sector which could the end of 2019, including five
and activity, with both fixed and remain an expensive niche within floating turbines (totaling 19 MW)
floating foundations being deployed. Japan’s wider energy picture. and 23 near-shore wind turbines.
To date, no commercial-scale offshore The slow uptake is attributed to
projects greater than 20 MW have In March 2020, GWEC and the Japan Japan’s overly complex Environment
been installed and the development Wind Power Association (JWPA) Impact Assessment (EIA) system and
of a viable market structure is set up a new Japan Offshore Wind market uncertainty. It can take four
emerging at a slow pace. Taskforce (JOWTF), which will to five years to pass through Japan’s
play a key role in working with the strict environmental assessment
But 2020 marks an inflection point government to develop a sustainable process, and the lack of clarity and
for Japan’s offshore wind sector. wind industry, as well as produce coordination between different
The government launched the first a detailed Cost Reduction Study government bodies has prompted
offshore wind auction in the general to identify different price/volume industry to call for a “one-stop shop”
common sea in June 2020 and the scenarios and investment and approach. As of January 2020, 14.8
other four promising sea areas industrialisation opportunities. GW of offshore wind projects are in
nominated in July 2019 are ready
the EIA pipeline.
for auction after the approval on 21 A regulatory drag on Japan’s offshore
July 2020, four more sea areas were development until now Positive steps to accelerate offshore
nominated as promising area in the wind development
The feed-in tariff (FiT) for wind power
same month. In addition, there is a
was approved in Japan in 2012, but To address these challenges, the
strong sense of growing momentum
the tailor-made offshore FiT was not government has been streamlining
in both policy and industry, as many

58 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


regulation since 2017, when the
Ministry of land, Infrastructure, Round 1 & 1.5 Candidate offshore wind promotion areas in Japan
Transport and Tourism (MLIT)
amended its Port and Harbor Law
to promote offshore wind power Aomori Pref.
development in Port-associated Sea (Japan Sea South) Aomori Pref.
Areas. In March 2018, the Japanese Hiyama, Hokkaido Pref. (Japan Sea South)
Cabinet decided on a bill to establish
basic rules for development of Happou-cho/
offshore wind power in the General Noshiro-city, Akita Pref. Gann-u and Minami-
Common Sea Area. Further progress Shiribeshi, Hokkaido Pref.
was made in 2019 with METI and Noshiro-city/Mitane-cho/
MLIT announcing the first nomination oga-city, Akita Pref.
of 11 offshore wind promotion zones Mutsu bay,
Katagami-city, Aomori Pref.
in July for fiscal year (FY) 2019. Four
Akita Pref.
of these zones (Goto in Nagasaki,
Choshi in Chiba, Yurihonjo in Yurihonjo - city, Akita Pref.
Akita, Noshiro in Akita) have been (North/ South)
nominated as promising areas where Yusa, Yamagata Pref.
Murakami/ Tainai-city,
local authorities and residents have Niigata Pref.
agreed to cooperate to develop
offshore wind projects. Goto in
Nagasaki Prefecture was nominated Choshi, Chiba Pref.
as the first zone for promotion of
offshore wind in December 2019.

Although COVID-19 prolonged Enoshima Saikai-city,


public consultations, METI and MLIT Nagasaki Pref.
launched Japan’s first auction in July Goto, Nagasaki Pref.
Round 1 (4 promising areas), announced in July 2019 for FY2019
2020 for a floating offshore wind farm Round 2 (4 promising areas), announced in July 2020 for FY 2020
(8 turbine, not less than 16.8 MW) Candidate offshore wind promising areas

off Goto City in Nagasaki Prefecture,


to run until December 2020.
According to METI, the operator will
be selected in June 2021. The other Source: METI, MLIT, JWPA, July 2019

GWEC.NET 59
three promising areas nominated
for FY2019, were nominated as the Japanese offshore auction progress list
zones for promotion of offshore
Stage of progess Round1 (FY2019) Round2 (FY2020)
wind on 21 July 2020. Of these areas,
Initial (July 2019) Progress (July 2020) Initial (July 2020)
Yurihonjo area in Akita has been
divided into two areas, Yurihonjo Promotion Japan Sea side North, Aomori Gann-u and Minami- Shiribeshi, Hokkaido
North and Yurihonjo South, to promote zones Japan Sea side South, Aomori Hiyama, Hokkaido
Mutsu bay, Aomori Happou-cho Mutsu bay, Aomori
competition. & Noshiro, Akita Kisakata, Akita Kisakata, Akita-city, Akita
Murakami & Tainai, Niigata Yusa, Yamagata
Furthermore, METI & MLIT Enoshima Saikai-city, Nagasaki Murakami & Tainai, Niigata
announced the second nomination
Promising Noshiro, Akita Japan Sea side North, Aomori
of 10 offshore wind promotion zones areas Yurihonjo, Akita Japan Sea side South, Aomori
in July 2020 for FY2020. Four of Choshi, Chiba Happou-cho & Noshiro, Akita
these zones (Aomori Japan Seaside Enoshima Saikai-city, Nagasaki
North, Aomori Japan Seaside North Official Goto, Nagasaki Noshiro, Akita
South, Happou and Noshiro in Akita, promotion Yurihonjo North, Akita
Saikai in Nagasaki) have been newly areas Yurihonjo South, Akita
Choshi, Chiba
nominated as promising areas.
Areas with auction Goto, Nagasaki
The progress that Japanese offshore already launched
wind development has made in the
Source: JWPA, July 2020
past 12 months is summarised in the
table below.
of the country’s annual electricity the country’s energy strategy would
Offshore wind in Japan’s long-term production. This situation, however, prioritise decarbonisation over the
energy strategy is expected to change gradually. The current “energy mix” plan (fossil,
trends of global energy transition nuclear and renewables). This change
Japan has hesitated to announce and decarbonisation have made will be reflected at the next “Japanese
a long-term offshore wind target the Japanese government change long-term energy vision” revised in
because the METI still maintains its their future energy plan. METI’s 2021 (it is revised every three years).
commitments with the nuclear and minister Hiroshi Kajiyama recently As coal-fired generation supplies
coal industries. The official wind declared the closure of 100 old & low about one-third of Japan’s electricity,
power target in Japan is only 10 GW performance coal-fired power plants renewable energy and particularly
by 2030, including both onshore by 2030 (out of 140 existing coal-fired offshore wind is expected to play a
and offshore, representing 1.7% power plants) and announced that big role to fill the gap.

60 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Japanese offshore wind “sector deal”

On 17 July 2020, METI & MLIT


held the first government-industry
dialogue in Tokyo to promote offshore
wind power development in Japan.
This dialogue works as a system
that can increase the voice of the
industrial world from various power
sources and is a concept similar to
the Sector Deal in UK. During the first
government-industry dialogue, JWPA
proposed the 10 GW by 2030 and 30-
45 GW by 2040 offshore wind targets.
The government suggested the
intention to nominate 3 or 4 candidate
sea areas (each area has 300-350
MW in capacity) ache year (about 30
projects in total). If this plan can be
executed, it would bring Japan’s total
offshore wind capacity to about 10
GW by 2030.

Building the local offshore wind


supply chain

A more streamlined regulatory


environment has drawn the
attention of large local utilities
including TEPCO, which signed
an MOU with leading offshore
wind developer Ørsted to work
jointly on offshore wind projects
in Japan and abroad. In addition,
Kyuden Mirai, a subsidiary of

GWEC.NET 61
Kyushu Electric Power Co, J Power GE Renewable Energy and others to Conclusion
and Tokyo Gas Co. also signed move in.
the partnership with RWE, Engie 2020 is expected to be an important
and Principle Power respectively In March 2020, MHI Vestas gained year for Japan’s offshore wind sector,
with the focus on the offshore its first firm order in Japan, to with the launch of the first wave
development. supply turbines to the 139 MW of commercial projects and the
Akita Noshiro offshore wind announcement of the framework for
Local and international suppliers are project owned by a Marubeni- further tenders.
also entering the offshore wind value controlled subsidiary, while in
chain. For example, Tokyo-based November 2019, it signed a
Penta Ocean took delivery of Japan’s preferred supplier agreement to
first jack-up offshore wind turbine supply its V174-9.5 MW turbines
installation vessel (OWTIV) in 2019, to the 220 MW Hibikinada offshore
while another three OWTIVs are wind farm. In April 2020, MHI
expected to be delivered in 2022 by Vestas was selected to supply
local companies including Shimizu, turbines for the 700 MW Akita
Kajimay, Yorigami, Obayashi and Yurihonjo project, one of the
Toa. International-local partnerships, largest offshore wind farms
such as Van Oord/NYK and Northern planned in Japan.
Offshore Group/NYK, have been
established to capitalize on the
emerging opportunities in foundation
and turbine installation and wind farm
operation. However, the government MHI Vestas gained its first firm order in Japan,
may need to find a new strategy
to revive its local offshore turbine
to supply turbines to the 139 MW Akita Noshiro
manufacturing industry as two local offshore wind project owned by a Marubeni-
turbine OEMs, Japan Steel Works
(JSW) and Hitachi, have discontinued controlled subsidiary, while in November 2019,
turbine production in recent years; it signed a preferred supplier agreement to
this could leave room for MHI Vestas
(a joint venture between Mitsubishi supply its V174-9.5 MW turbines to the 220
Heavy Industries and Vestas), SGRE,
MW Hibikinada offshore wind farm.

62 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


South Korea
Offshore wind is a golden opportunity a low initial feed-in tariff (prior to
for South Korea, offering the chance the introduction of the Renewable
to accelerate its phaseout of fossil Portfolio Standard scheme) also
fuels and nuclear generation dampened growth.

Nearly a decade ago, South Korea As a result, South Korea’s initial foray
adopted an ambitious Green into “green growth” and a clean
Growth Strategy that aimed to energy transition saw little translation
reduce greenhouse gas emissions into action for the better part of the
by 30% by 2020. This strategy last decade.
marked the beginning of “green
South Korea prepares to push the
growth” as the direction of travel
reset button on offshore wind
for South Korea’s economic growth,
sparking the interest of domestic Nonetheless, at the start of a new
industrial conglomerates (such as decade, the momentum for offshore
Samsung, Hyundai, Doosan and wind in South Korea is picking up
STX) in renewable energy project with the passage of President Moon
development and equipment supply. Jae-in’s Green New Deal and a
groundswell of interest from ambitious
Following a 2.0 MW STX direct
consortia of local and international
drive offshore turbine and a 3.0 MW
wind energy developers.
Doosan geared drive turbine installed
in early 2010s’ for testing purpose, 1. Policy support
the 30 MW Tamra offshore wind
farm came online off Geumdeung-ri Growth in modern South Korea is
in Jeju Island in 2016. However, the built upon energy-intensive industries
sector has been generally slow to such as electronics, automotive and
take off, due to public opposition on shipbuilding, many of which are
environmental and livelihood (fishing) difficult to decarbonise. As such, the
issues. Long permitting periods and nation is still embroiled in public

GWEC.NET 63
by 2030 (currently around 6%) and South Korea also has its own wind
to increase that share to 30-35% turbine manufacturers. Of these,
Over 12 GW of new offshore wind capacity
by 2040. Given insufficient land Doosan has the longest track record
needs to be installed to reach the country’s 2030 available for onshore wind and low in offshore wind with 96 MW installed,
solar radiation, attention has moved and is expanding its products line-up
renewable energy target. offshore. Over 12 GW of new offshore to 8 MW platform from the current 3
wind capacity needs to be installed to MW and 5 MW models. In addition,
reach the country’s goals. local turbine suppliers Unison and
debates over its commitment to coal, Hyosung are seeking opportunities in
gas and nuclear power, imposing 2. Strong local industrial base offshore developments.
a drag on the transition to cleaner
South Korea’s industrial experience in A strong locally supply chain
and more secure renewable energy
steel, shipbuilding and logistics could also exists for forging, with local
sources.
translate to competencies in offshore companies Hyundai Forging, Hyunjin
Now, with President Moon in office engineering and supply chain Materials, Kofco and Taewoong,
and the re-election of the Democratic efficiencies, smoothing the pathway to as well as slewing bearings
Party in 2020, South Korea can press developing a localised offshore wind manufacturers Shilla and CS Bearing,
ahead with its newly adopted Green industry. already exporting products to
New Deal. To boost the green sector, overseas offshore markets.
For instance, its marine and offshore
South Korea plans to invest a total of
industry will play a critical role 3. International partnerships
12.9 trillion won (US$10.8 billion) in
fabricating offshore wind jacket
green buildings, urban forests and
foundations, with local shipyard Leading international offshore players
low-carbon energy production by
company Samkang already delivering have recognised the potential for
2022 and create 133,000 jobs in the
jacket foundations to the Changhua offshore wind (particularly floating
process. Under this plan, South Korea
Demonstration project in Taiwan. offshore) in South Korea and are
has become the first country in East
South Korea also has the advantage piling into the market.
Asia to pledge to reach net-zero
of high R&D intensity in shipbuilding
emissions by 2050. Early last year, the port city of Ulsan
and cabling, allowing Samsung
and Hyundai to build offshore wind signed an MOU with four domestic
Through its Third Energy Plan,
installation vessels and local company and foreign partners and investors
released in June 2019, South Korea’s
LS Cable & System to manufacture (including Royal Dutch Shell and
“Renewable Energy 3020” target for
offshore cables for markets in Europe CoensHexicon, South Korea’s energy
20% of total electricity consumption
and the US. company SK E&S and Denmark’s
to come from renewable energy
Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners,

64 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Status of Offshore Wind Farms in Korea

Authorization for power generation business (`20.07)

Scheduled (Total 3.7GW)


In operation (Total 132.5MW)
Poongdo Offshore Wind Power (200) IWEST / Uram jonghap geonseol
Farmname(Capacity MW/installation number) Owner

Gunsan offshore wind power demonstration (3/1) Korea Electric Power Research Institute
Saemangeum offshore wind power (98.8) Saemangeum Offshore Wind Power

Southwest Offshore Wind Power (demonstration complex 60/20) KOWP

Nakwol offshore wind power (354.48) Myeongwoon Saneopgaebal


Anma offshore wind power (218.4) Anma offshore wind power
Wind System Evaluation Center (12.3) JNTP Dongnamhaean Offshore Wind Power (136/17) SK E&C
YeomSan wind power (38.4) Daemyeong Energy
Yeonggwang Doouri Wind Power (99.1) Jaewon Energy Yeonggwang (79.6 (Offshore 34.5) /35)
Daehan Green Energy / EWP
Changwoo offshore wind power (151.2/36) CW&RE
Yeonggwang Yawol 2 offshore wind power (10.0) Yawol 2 offshore wind power
Yeonggwang Yaksu Offshore Wind Power (4.3) JNDC Haegi Offshore Wind Power (40) G Wind Sky
Yeonggwang Yawol offshore wind power (49.8/20) Daehan Green Energy
Eoui Offshore Wind Power (16) Sinan Eoui Offshore Wind Power

Apae Wind power1,2 (60) Apaepungnyeokbaljeon Tongyeong Socho Wind Power (9.9) Yeongdongbaljeon
Maewol offshore wind power (96) Maewol offshore wind power
Yokji Offshore Wind Power (352/64) Hanguk Baljeon Gaebal
Sinan Jeungdo Wind Power (33.0) Win Wind Power

Shinan Wuyi Offshore Wind Power (396.8) Hanwha E&C/ KOENERGY /SK D&D Wando Offshore Wind Power (148.5/27) IWEST

Shinan Offshore Wind Power (300/47)POSCO Energy/ KOENERGY Geumil offshore wind power (200/25) KOENERGY / Cheonghae Remikon

Jeonnam offshore wind power(96/24)SK E&S


Korea Institute of Energy Research’s offshore wind power demonstration (2/1)
Chunsaeoeui Offshore Wind Power (16.0) Cheonsaeouipungnyeokbaljeon
Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction's offshore wind power demonstration (3/1)

Hallim Offshore Wind Power (100) KEPCO/KEPCO E&C/KOMIPO/Daelim Industry/Baram Woljeong/Hangwon Offshore Wind Power (125) investment planned

Handong·Pyeongdae Offshore Wind Power (105) investment planned


Tamla Offshore Wind Power (30/10) KOENERGY

Daejeong Offshore Wind Power (100) KOSPO/Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction
Pyoseon Offshore Wind Power (135) / investment planned

Source: Korea Wind Energy Industry Association


GWEC.NET 65
Macquarie’s Green Investment Group Fulfilling the promise of South Korea does not always match action, the
(GIG) and Korea Floating Wind offshore wind market will need steadfast public
(KFWind)) to explore large-scale steering and ambitious long-term
floating offshore wind development. As of June 2020, there are currently targets to drive decarbonisation and
In February 2020, Canadian power 5 operational offshore wind projects diversify the power mix. Still, with
producer Northland Power acquired totalling 132.5 MW, including the latest sufficient government commitment
local wind developer Dado Ocean, and largest 60 MW demonstration and industry experience from
which owns a portfolio of early-stage Southwest Offshore Wind Project neighbouring countries to smooth
offshore wind projects in South Korea. completed in January – the first the learning curve, the future of South
phase of a massive 2.5 GW project. Korea’s offshore wind sector looks
In addition to partnerships and Over 23 offshore wind projects are in bright indeed.
acquisitions, large-scale floating preliminary development (totalling
projects are being developed 7.3 GW), as shown in the project map
by international-local consortia. on page 56.
The 200 MW Donghae 1 floating
offshore wind farm, nearly 60 Despite its slow start, South Korea’s
kilometres offshore from Ulsan, is offshore wind sector is now benefiting
being developed by Equinor, the from the financial clout coming
Korea National Oil Corporation from both state-owned and foreign
(KNOC) and Korea East-West Power investors, and buoyed by its existing
Corporation, for commissioning in industrial infrastructure. GWEC
2024. In proximity to this project, Market Intelligence forecasts that a
Equinor recently commenced LiDAR total of 7.8 GW of offshore wind is
installations to conduct metocean data likely to be built in South Korea by
measurements for a potential 800 MW 2030, of which 1.2 GW is expected to
floating offshore wind project. be floating wind.

By 2030, South Korea is expected to However, South Korea remains a


emerge as East Asia’s hottest floating challenging market with respect to
offshore wind market, housing some terrain complexity, turbulent wind
of the world’s biggest floating offshore conditions and strong incumbent
wind farms, boosted by significant energy and marine actors,
developer and investor appetite. particularly among the coal and
fishing industries. Coupled with
criticism that government rhetoric

66 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Vietnam Onshore and offshore wind speed in Vietnam

Since commissioning its first 16MW Steady strengthening of Vietnam’s


intertidal wind farm in Bac Lieu in wind project pipeline
2013, Vietnam has emerged as the
offshore wind market to watch in PDP 7 aims for 800MW of onshore
South East Asia. Now with 99MW of and offshore wind energy GLOBAL
by 2020WIND ATLAS
offshore wind installed capacity, and and 6GW by 2030 – whichMEAN pales WIND SPEED MAP
VIETNAM
200MW due to come online in 2020, in comparison with the country’s
Vietnam has drawn significant interest technical potential. With a coastline
amongst international developers, of more than 3,300 kilometres and
investors, and financiers as a fast- average wind speeds of 8-9m/s in
growing market. the south, up to 475 GW of fixed
and floating offshore wind resource
Vietnam’s market growth is potential has been identified by the
supported by strong fundamentals World Bank Group.[1] Due to growing
including a steep rise in energy industry appetite to develop offshore
demand, rapid industrialisation and a wind power in Vietnam, the market is
growing population. While currently expected to reach around 2.0 GW of
dependent on fossil fuel generation, offshore wind capacity by 2025 and
the Vietnamese government has 5.2 GW by 2030.
sought to accelerate the production
of electricity from renewable sources, Offshore wind is prioritised in the
targeting 10% renewables in its 2030 government’s plan to build a “blue
power mix in PDP 7, the country’s economy” – developing marine-
master energy plan. But for a market based renewables to meet energy
known for its technical and legal needs – and achieve energy security.
complexity, clarity on regulation, grid Since revising PDP 7 in 2016, the
access and bankability of projects Vietnam government has been
remain critical challenges. reorienting its reliance on coal to

[1] http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ This map is printed using the Global Wind Atlas online application website (v.3.0) owned by the Technical University of Denmark. For more information and terms of use, please visit https://globalwindatlas.info
Map obtained from the Global Wind Atlas 3.0, a free, web-based application developed, owned and operated by the Technical University
en/716891572457609829/pdf/Going-Global- of Denmark (DTU). The Global Wind Atlas 3.0 is released in partnership with the World Bank Group, utilizing data provided by Vortex, using
Expanding-Offshore-Wind-To-Emerging-Markets.pdf funding provided by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). For additional information: : https://globalwindatlas.info

GWEC.NET 67
prioritise clean energy sources. Despite the ambition for Promising developments for PDP 8
Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW, published decarbonisation and attractive
in February 2020, outlines measures resource potential, pursuing a least- PDP 8, expected by the end of 2020,
to liberalise the energy sector cost transformation of the energy will outline a two-year extension to
and reduce the share of coal-fired system will require transparent the current FiT framework for offshore
generation in the power mix. policy, streamlined administration wind, as well as higher capacity
and a flexible grid. The lack of policy targets out to 2030. In April 2020,
Just last month, the government differentiation between onshore, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of
formally approved a list of 91 nearshore and large-scale offshore Vietnam (MOIT) officially proposed
additional wind projects totalling 7 wind projects of Vietnam is holding an extension of the FiT mechanism for
GW,[2] on top of the 4.8 GW of planned the sector back. PDP 8 is expected wind projects from 1 November 2021
wind capacity (78 projects) already to deliver more concrete policy to 31 December 2023. By 2024, the
approved under the current master frameworks for large-scale offshore government is planning to transition
plan. Projects in operation (377 MW) wind developments, including zoning, wind procurement to an auction
and those with power purchase marine spatial planning, and ports system.
contracts with EVN (1,662 MW) are infrastructures plans and permitting
excluded from the figures above. All This development followed policy
processes. A key issue will be the
of these puts Vietnam on track for a engagement with GWEC Asia,
design challenges for grid upgrades,
total wind power generation capacity which highlighted the supply chain
and whether public or private bodies
of nearly 14 GW latest by 2030. disruptions, labour shortages and
will be responsible for investments
construction delays brought by the
in grid connections and transmission
The added wind capacity is viewed Covid-19 outbreak, as well as the
infrastructure.
as necessary to plug the power permitting delays to several wind
shortage left by delayed coal plants, projects which made it unfeasible
which may not come online until
2023. While Vietnam remains a net
coal importer for now, the declining
economics of new coal generation
vis-à-vis wind and solar power The government formally approved a list of 91
are driving the shift to utility-scale additional wind projects totalling 7 GW, on top of
renewable generation.
the 4.8 GW of planned wind capacity (78 projects)
already approved under the current master plan.
[2] https://tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn/dau-tu/danh-
tinh-91-du-an-dien-gio-vua-duoc-bo-sung-quy-hoach-
dien-333024.html

68 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


to meet the 2021 commissioning A bankable PPA is a building block of Vietnam. The country has a solid Offshore wind is set to play a critical
deadline under the original FiT successful offshore wind markets that pipeline for offshore wind, most role in Vietnam’s clean energy
framework. require huge volumes of capital, and of which are nearshore, with three transformation, bringing in local and
is widely perceived as a constraint on projects in the build phase (142MW foreign investment, creating local
A direct power purchase agreement Vietnam’s wind sector development Bac Lieu Phase 3, 40MW Khai Long and sustainable jobs, delivering
(DPPA) pilot programme could also and financing. Bankability of the DPPA I and 48MW V1-1 - Truong Long carbon reduction and positioning the
generate new revenue opportunities and verification of renewable energy Hoa project) and 10 in the pre- country as an energy leader in South
and demand for renewable energy attributes according to international construction phase, as of June 2020. East Asia. To deliver this potential,
from industrial consumers. Currently, standards will both be required for the government must expedite
national utility Vietnam Electricity the secondary market to take off. Worth highlighting is the mammoth its improvements to the current
(EVN) and its subsidiaries act as Thang Long project at 3.4GW – regulatory framework, streamlining
the sole offtaker of electricity from Offshore wind project outlook making it one of the world’s biggest permitting processes and reducing
generators. However, the government offshore wind farms once completed the legal and technical complexities
has announced its vision for a Further regulatory clarity, especially – which has already obtained of offshore developments. It must also
competitive power market, with this in the process of obtaining seabed approvals from the government. The focus on risk mitigation mechanisms
DPPA pilot scheme operating from leases and approvals for offshore project is still in the early stage and its and reforms to the standard PPA,
2021 to 2023, paving the way for a wind projects, will be critical to first 600MW phase is planned to be which can increase investor and off
retail electricity market. attracting the international capital completed by 2022. taker certainty and reduce the cost of
and interest that can sustain a boom
capital for wind projects.
in offshore wind development in

GWEC.NET 69
US
East Coast offshore wind project and lease areas

The US offshore wind market has and natural gas. Since the regulations
picked up strong momentum since were enacted, BOEM has issued 16
the 30 MW Block Island Wind Project commercial offshore wind energy
came online in Rhode Island in leases, including three commercial
NY
December 2016. Despite a complex leases in 2019. In total the 16 offshore MA
regulatory scene with differing rules wind leases could support more CT
RI
across the offshore states, large-scale than 21 GW of generating capacity. Bay State Wind
Revolution Wind (704MW)
projects are advancing and developer BOEM is now in the planning stages
Vineyard Wind (800MW)
appetite has been at fever pitch. And for leasing areas off the coast of New PA South Fork Wind Farm
(130MW)
with technical resource potential for York, South Carolina, California and
Sunrise Wind (880MW)
Park CIty (804MW)
US offshore wind exceeding 2,000 Hawaii and expects to hold two lease Equinor
Mayflower Wind (804MW)
GW, there is vast room to grow. sales in 2020, one in the Atlantic in the
NJ Empire Wind (816MW)
New York Bight and one in the Pacific
Regulatory progress at both federal off California.
and state levels
Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind
The issuance of leases and
On the federal level, the Bureau subsequent review of energy
Ocean Wind (1,100 MW)
DE
of Ocean Energy Management development activities on the Ørsted, PSEG
(BOEM) is responsible for managing OCS is a staged decision-making MD
Skipjack Wind Farm (120MW)
MarWin (269MW)
development of offshore resources process. BOEM’s renewable energy
in federal waters. In 2009, the authorization process is comprised
Department of the Interior (DOI) of four distinct phases (Figure 2). The
announced final regulations for lease does not provide the lessee the
Unnamed Dominion Energy Project (2,640MW)
the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) right to construct particular facilities; VA
Renewable Energy Program, which rather, the lease provides the right Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (12MW)
provides a framework for issuing to use the leased area to develop
Avangrid Renewables
leases, easements, and rights-of- its site assessment and construction NC
way for OCS activities that support and operations plans, which must be
production and transmission of approved by BOEM before the lessee
energy from sources other than oil can move on to the next stage of the Source: BOEM, AWEA, January 2020

70 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Phases of BOEM’s Offshore Wind Energy Authorization Process

Planning & Analysis Leasing Site Assessment Construction & Operations


– 2 Years – 1-2 Years UP TO 5 Years – 2 Years (+25)

Intergovernmental Task Publish Leasing Notices Construction and


Force Site Characterization
Operation Plan
Conduct Auctior or Site Assessment Plan
Request for Information Facility Design Report
or Call for Information Negotiate Lease Terms and Fabrication and
and Nominations Installation Report
Issue Lease(s)
Area Identification
Decommissioning
Environmental Reviews
Environmental and
Technical Reviews

Source: BOEM, AWEA, January 2020

process. On the last phase, BOEM Connecticut, Massachusetts, New and Virginia together with the 2030 through state-issued solicitations,
conducts environmental and technical York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, offshore wind targets released in which are the calls for proposals from
reviews of the plan submitted by Virginia and North Carolina is Connecticut and Maryland have offshore wind developers to deliver
project developers and decides driving strong demand for offshore brought the country’s total offshore offshore wind energy to an state.
whether to approve, approve with wind energy. To date, more than wind procurement targets from 9.1 The top four states by total volume
modification or disapprove. At the 10 states have offshore projects in GW in 2018 to 28.1 GW in 2020 (see of solicitations are: New York (1,696
end of lease, project developers must development, of which six states have figure on page 17 on Global Market MW), Massachusetts (1,604 MW),
decommission facilities in compliance offshore wind procurement targets Outlook section). Connecticut (1,108 MW) and New
with BOEM regulations. through either legislation, conditional Jersey (1,100 MW). The state-level
targets or executive orders. The According to AWEA, as of June solicitations are expected to continue
On the state level, the East recently increased offshore wind 2020, six states had selected nearly in 2020.
Coast cluster consisting of Maine, targets in New York, New Jersey 6,300 MW of offshore wind projects

GWEC.NET 71
Developers expect 15 offshore wind projects,
totalling 10,603 MW, to be commissioned by
2026.

In January 2020, New York State ownership, more than 70% of the
Energy Research and Development capacity to be delivered by 2026 is
Authority (NYSERDA) filed a petition controlled by European developers,
with state regulators to initiate a of which Ørsted is taking the lead
regulatory proceeding for the (2.5 GW). The Danish utility is closely
authorization of a second large- followed by Avangrid Renewables, a
scale solicitation for at least 1 GW subsidiary of Spain’s Iberdrola (2.3
of offshore wind. Developers expect GW), Equinor (816 MW), CIP (804
15 offshore wind projects, totalling MW), EDPR (402 MW) and Shell (402
10,603 MW, to be commissioned by MW).
2026.
Market ready to take off from 2024
According to AWEA, as of April 2020 with European suppliers dominated
the US offshore wind pipeline totalled the current pipeline
more than 26 GW in federal lease
areas issued to date. According to Although the 12 MW Dominion
GWEC Market Intelligence, out of Virginia demo project was
this pipeline, developers expect successfully installed in June
15 offshore wind projects, totalling 2020, compared to GWEC Market
10,603 MW, to be commissioned Intelligence’s pre-COVID outlook,
by 2026. Out of the 10,603 MW of the combination of prolonged lead
offshore wind capacity, 25% is likely time to secure federal permits and
to be built in Virginia, followed by the effects of the COVID-19 health
New York (17.2%), Massachusetts crisis has caused delays for projects
(15.2%), North Carolina (14.0%), previously scheduled for commission
Connecticut (10.5%) and New Jersey in 2022 and 2023. Thus, we have
(10.4%). With regards to the project

Copyright: Dominion Energy


72 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020
pushed back the commission year factors to fulfil timelines and meet
Expected annual offshore wind installation by state, 2020-2026
for those projects by one year. ambitious targets. Individual
states have defined programs,
As of the end 2019, offshore Maine Ohio Delaware Maryland
4184 including tax incentives and
developers have selected or Rhode Island New Jersey Connecticut research grants, to attract private
announced preferred turbine North Carolina Massachusetts New York 880 investment. The challenge here
suppliers for nine offshore projects. 3246
Virginia 2878 will be defining a collaborative
Thanks to Dominion Energy’s approach and planning strategy
2,640 MW project off the coast of 804 1696 1760
in order to set up an efficient
Virginia, Siemens Gamesa is so far 304 supply chain across individual
130
the largest winner with a 4,366 MW 120 804 states.
20.7 1100
order backlog in the US, followed 12 283 1486
by GE Renewable Energy (1,220 12 400 270 804
MW) and MHI Vestas (804 MW).
2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
SGRE’s SG14-222 DD (the world’s
largest offshore model released in Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
May 2020), GE’s Haliade X- 12MW
DD and MHI Vestas’ V164-9.5 MW
turbines are the most popular and the public – throughout the
ramp-up of an industry with huge
models selected for those projects. development and construction
growth potential and strategic
alignment with economic process is essential.
Challenges need to be addressed
to achieve growth recovery objectives. The final • Establishing a local supply
approval from BOEM for the chain and investing in grid and
With activity level accelerating Construction and Operations port infrastructure through a
along the East Coast, GWEC Plan (COP) has been particularly collaborative approach will be
Market Intelligence predicts a total prolonged for developers, and essential to the sector’s success
of 22.6 GW of offshore wind could has already impacted projects in the US. Commitments and
be built in the US by the end of this scheduled to be online in 2022- investments in the supply chain,
decade. To realize such potential, 2024. In addition, for future including Jones Act-compliant
however, the following key commercial lease sales, engaging offshore wind installation vessels,
challenges must be addressed: stakeholders – including federal, adequate grid buildout and port
• Slow project permitting state and local agencies, fishing infrastructure, as well as a trained
processes can delay the and marine use communities and skilled workforce, are critical

GWEC.NET 73
France
With a total 16.6GW of installed 496MW Saint-Brieuc project in 2023. target of 5.2-6.2GW installed offshore
onshore wind capacity, and a solitary Projects from Tender II are still waiting wind capacity by 2028. Taking it one
2MW pilot floating turbine spinning, to be cleared and expected to be step further, the revised Multiannual
France is undoubtedly late to the commissioned in 2023/2024. Energy Programme (Programmation
offshore wind boom when compared pluriannuelle de l’énergie, or PPE)
to its European neighbours. The In France’s third offshore wind auction raised its target to put up to 8.75
first wave of French offshore wind in 2019, an EDF-Innogy-Enbridge GW of offshore wind capacity out to
projects was auctioned in 2012 consortium won the right to develop
(1.9GW allocated) and 2014 (1 GW a 600MW offshore project off Dunkirk
French offshore wind projects
allocated), but public opposition with a winning bid of EUR44/MWh.
and project delays linked to fishing This particular tender featured a Dunkirk
industry, aviation and national security number of regulatory changes that Le
concerns stalled progress for years. facilitated competitive bidding, Tr éport
This was followed by retroactive tariffs faster project developments and low F écamp
bid prices. Dropping local content Courseulles - sur - Mer
cuts in line with the rapid decline
in offshore wind prices since the requirements, shifting transmission Saint- Brieuc
auctions. cost to the Transmission System
Operator (TSO) and pre-tender
The reboot of the French offshore public participation all contributed to
Groix
wind industry producing a successful procurement Floatgen Tender I
round, securing prices 69% cheaper Saint- Nazaire Tender II
Nonetheless, at the start of this new than previous French tenders.
decade, France’s offshore wind sector Yeu - Noirmoutier Tender III
is finally advancing. Backlogged Following the third tender, the French Floating tender I
projects from Tender 1 have resolved government is committing strongly Floating tender II
their permitting disputes, clearing to both onshore and offshore wind. In
Faraman Demonstration
the path to financial closure. These April 2020, France’s 10-year National
are expected to come online by Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) Leucate
2022, starting with the 480MW Saint- was submitted to the European Gruissan
Nazaire project, followed by the Commission, setting an impressive

74 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


tender from 2020 to 2028. If this target According to government plans, the Other positive developments from located between the islands
is realised, GWEC expects France next tender will take place in H2 industry in 2020 include: of Yeu and Noirmoutier to the
would become the eight-largest 2020 for a 1GW offshore project in French national grid.
• European Investment Bank
offshore market globally by that time. the Manche Est-mer du Nord region, (EIB) has granted a €450 million
followed by further 1 GW tenders Conclusion
(US$507m) credit line to co-
Promising offshore wind outlook in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Separately, finance the construction of the Although the French market had a
ahead a total of 750MW floating offshore 497MW Fécamp offshore wind slow start, the government’s recent
capacity will be allocated through project expecting to come online
By 2030, GWEC Market Intelligence PPE commitment and 2028 target
three projects in Brittany, Occitanie in 2022;
expects 8.5 GW of offshore wind have put offshore wind back in the
and Provence-Côte d’Azur, expected
capacity to be installed in France.
to be awarded in 2021 and 2022. • Spanish energy company spotlight. If it can realise its capacity
This includes the 3.5 GW of approved Iberdrola announced an targets and maintain a streamlined
The Environment Minister recently
projects from Tenders I, II and III, as investment of EUR 3-4 billion permitting and consenting process,
announced that from 2024 onward,
well as four demonstration floating in renewable energy projects the country is expected to be among
France will tender 1 GW per year of
wind projects and volume outlined in in France, and plans to start Europe’s top five offshore wind
either fixed-bottom or floating wind
future tenders. construction on the EUR 2.5 markets by 2030, as well as one of the
capacity, largely depending on the
billion Saint-Brieuc project in world’s leading markets in floating
cost.
2021; wind.

France offshore outlook, 2020-2030e


• Siemens Gamesa Renewable
Energy (SGRE) is expected to
1968 start construction of its blade
New Cumulative manufacturing facility in Le Havre,
creating around 750 direct and
indirect jobs, scheduled for
completion in 2023;

1000 1000
1000
1000 1000 • LM Wind Power announced plans
948 to recruit 250 employees at its
blade manufacturing facility in
Cherbourg in 2021;
500
• Prysmian secures over €150
Million (US$169m) from RTE to
25 25 59 develop two submarine and land
export power cable systems
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 to connect offshore wind farms
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

GWEC.NET 75
Part 3. Exploring new markets

World Bank Group –


Offshore Wind Development Program
Background energy sector policies and strategies
of WBG client countries and support
The World Bank Group (WBG) the work needed to build a pipeline
launched a new global initiative of bankable projects. Key activities
on offshore wind in March 2019. include conferences and study
The Offshore Wind Development tours, knowledge creation, capacity
Program is being funded and led building, strategic country roadmap
by the Energy Sector Management studies and technical assistance.
Assistance Program (ESMAP) in close
partnership with the International Conference and Study Tours
Finance Corporation (IFC, the
UK Study Tour, June 2019
private sector arm of WBG). GWEC
collaborates with WBG on execution • GWEC organised a week-long
of key elements of this initiative. study tour to the UK, attracting
delegates from 12 WBG client
Core funding was received from countries. The week started with
the UK Department for Business, a private conference at BEIS,
Virtual Study Tour, September 2020
Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). followed by a day at the Global
Additional funding has been sourced Offshore Wind conference. The • For 2020 WBG has chosen
and further funds are expected across delegation was then taken up to move to a virtual event
the 5 year duration of the program. to NE England to see various and, again, GWEC is leading
offshore wind activities including the organisation. The virtual
The objective is to support the research, manufacturing, ports approach gives certain
inclusion of offshore wind into the and a training facility. advantages; more delegates

76 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


can attend, more locations can technical resource potential estimated
be “visited” across multiple across these 48 markets is 15.6 TW.
geographies and all with a
dramatic reduction in carbon Countries Engaged
footprint. • Following the UK Study Tour a
number of countries have asked
Knowledge Creation for technical assistance on
offshore wind, including:
The first report from the program was
released in Oct 2019, entitled “Going • Vietnam, where a roadmap
Global: Expanding Offshore Wind study is nearing completion
To Emerging Markets”. The report and a draft report is with the
gives a general background on the Ministry of Industry and Trade for
offshore wind market, the dramatic consultation across government.
fall in prices and lessons learned. It • Turkey and Sri Lanka, where
provides an estimate of the offshore roadmap studies are being
wind technical resource potential in commissioned in Summer 2020
8 developing countries, including • Brazil, where a virtual event with
India, Vietnam, South Africa, Brazil stakeholders and government is
and Turkey. The report concludes that planned for July 2020.
the resource is massive and emerging
markets are well placed to benefit • Ongoing engagements with
governments in India, South
from growth of the offshore wind
Africa, Colombia, Azerbaijan,
sector.
Philippines, Nicaragua and others.
The second knowledge output has
been the preparation of 48 maps of
WBG client countries and regions For further information see
(see example above) which have https://esmap.org/offshore-wind
an offshore wind resource. The total

GWEC.NET 77
Exploring
New
Markets
From the perspective of GWEC
Market Intelligence, it is important to
highlight the potential development
for offshore wind in newer markets.
Even if actual installations will
not happen immediately. The
five selected markets, Ireland,
Poland, Estonia, India, Australia, are
representative of markets with high
offshore wind potential but varying
political support and targets to date.
Still, in all five markets there is an
increasing awareness that offshore
wind can provide an at scale, cost-
competitive and efficient solution for
these countries.

GWEC Market Intelligence is


monitoring activities in 46 markets
on a regular basis to document the
opportunities and progress of taking
offshore wind global.

78 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Country Development stage Political support Challenge Next milestone
Ireland Pre-approval of 7 offshore wind projects Strong and clear support for offshore Strategic investment to build an indigenous Steps need to be taken to grow the local
by government, totalling 3.5 GW, awaits wind on the Programme for Government and economically sustainable local supply chain, currently, no port in Ireland
auction in 2021. (“PfG”), published in mid of June by supply chain including improving port meets all the requirements for offshore
Ireland’s prospective new government, infrastructure. wind projects.
with policy targets to include 5 GW of
offshore wind off the Eastern and Southern
coasts by 2030 and an assessment of the
potential for 30 GW of floating Atlantic
offshore wind, coupled with commitments
to hold the first offshore wind auction in
2021, developed an Options Paper on
offshore grid models and the enactment
of the Marine Planning and Development
Bill within 9 months (presumably from
Government formation).
Poland Up to 5.9 GW (instead of 4.6 GW 10 GW of offshore wind envisaged to be Depends on strengthening and Await the regulatory frameworks for
announced in Jan 2020) in projects would built by 2040 that could generate 25% modernising Poland’s transmission permitting, tendering and development to
be granted a fixed CfD support by end of Poland’s energy according to Energy network, especially in the north. be finalised so as to kickstart the industry
of 2021 and another 2.5 GW each in Policy of Poland until 2040 (EPP 2040). with international financing entering.
2025 and 2027 to be tendered off in
competitive CfD auctions.
Estonia Initiated the construction permit approval Renewable energy to account for 50% Strengthen Estonian-Latvian cooperation Estonia and Latvia work to develop
process for Eesti Energia’s 1 GW offshore (currently, at 30%) of final consumption of in marine spatial planning of joint wind guidelines for a collaborative project and
wind project in the Gulf of Riga, together domestic electricity by 2030 as announced farms, in attempt to avoid past halted have companies’ part of the discussion to
with Latvia. in Estonian Energy Development Plan offshore projects due to national security intensify the cooperation for projects to
(ENMAK 2030). concerns. come online.
India Nearly 70 GW potential area has been India had announced a national target to Offshore wind in India is expected Proper plans for the tender of the first
earmarked for offshore wind development, have 5 GW installed capacity by 2022 to compete with cheaper land-based projects, possibly beginning with a
however the tender for the first 1 GW and 30 GW by 2030, the first target is renewables and it has stalled the market. demonstration scale project.
offshore wind project in the Gulf of now not feasible and the second would
Khambhat (Gujarat) has been delayed, require a rapid deployment.
attention has now turned to the stronger
wind resource area off Tamil Nadu.
Australia Progress continues on Australia’s ground- At the start of the year, a plan for an Patchy track record on general support Policy formation.
breaking 2.2 GW Star of the South offshore clean energy bill was issued by and policy measures to back renewable
offshore wind energy farm, with contracts the Department of the Environment and energy generation, especially with respect
signed for the design of the project’s Energy. Once implemented, the framework to long-term certainty for measures such as
onshore transmission network and grid will fill an existing regulatory and its Feed-in-Tariff scheme.
connection. legislative gap that can kick-start a viable
offshore clean energy industry in Australia.

GWEC.NET 79
OFFSHORE WIND
TECHNOLOGIES

Courtesy of Principle Power. Artist name: Dock90

80 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Next Generation of Offshore Wind
Turbine Technology
When the world’s first offshore turbine which can reach 15 MW with
Evolution of Offshore wind turbine and project size
wind farm, Vindeby, was installed in Power Boost will be commercially
Denmark in 1991, the turbine size available from 2024. 100
was only 450kW (Bonus B35). Since
The increase of offshore wind turbine 90
then, the offshore wind turbine size
has grown significantly with the global size has been driven primarily by 80
10-12MW*

Average Units per Project


average offshore wind turbine size the goal of reducing the levelized cost 70
reaching 1.5 MW in 2000 and 6.5 of wind energy (LCOE). When the
60
MW in 2018. In Europe, the average bigger offshore turbine is released 6.5MW
with a higer nameplate capacity, 50
turbine size for new installations in
2019 is even higher, 7.2 MW. rotor diameter and tower height, the 40 3.8MW
2.7
technical capacity factors are higher, 30 MW
GE Renewable Energy launched its which in turn increases the annual
20
Haliade X 12 MW DD turbine in 2018 energy production (AEP). 2.5
MW
10 1.5
with the first prototype installed in MW
Rotterdam for onshore testing from Although larger turbines per unit are 0

November 2019. When the Haliade X, more costly than smaller ones, it saves 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

which was the world’s largest offshore the CAPEX for foundations, cables
* Expected average turbine size in markets outside China where average size is likely to be 7-8 MW
wind turbine model at the time, was and installation as well as the OPEX Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020
released, the company stated that12 due to lower turbine units.
MW was not the end, it was the climate change targets. However,
With offshore wind power developed
beginning and will get bigger. This with wind power penetrations
from a costly alternative to a
was proven true when its competitor, increased, challenges are imposed
competitive source of energy, it is
the world’s largest offshore wind on the electricity grid due to the
expected to play a big role in the
turbine supplier in total installations, characteristics of wind. A new study
global energy transition, helping
Siemens Gamesa, released its SG14- by Berkeley Lab, however, shows
countries to reach their committed
222 DD model in May 2020. This new that in addition to the reduction in

GWEC.NET 81
levelized costs, significant increases long-term wind output uncertainty). and China (see figures on page 81- However, at what point the future
in wind turbine size can, in fact, Considering the system benefit 82) also illustrate such trends. offshore turbine size will plateau
enhance the value of wind energy to provided by supersized offshore will be determined by factors such
the electricity system and provide turbines as well as the increasing Our offshore wind ambassador and as continued turbine technology
other ‘hidden’ benefits including pressure for offshore wind to the offshore wind pioneer Henrik innovations, drive-train optimization,
reduced transmission expenditure reach grid parity, GWEC Market Stiesdal predicted in GWEC’s recent alternative materials, regulatory
(due to greater transmission Intelligence believes that the offshore Global Offshore Wind Technology barriers, and logistical constraints for
utilization), lower balancing costs for wind turbine size will continue to webinar that the next generation of both transportation and installation.
the electricity system (due to lower grow if wind energy is to reach its offshore turbine technology could
aggregate wind output variability), full potential. The offshore wind probably be around 20 MW with
and lower financing costs (due to less technology road maps in both Europe a 275m rotor diameter by 2030.

82 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Offshore Wind Turbine Capacity Growth Pathway (excluded China)

15

14

13

12

11

10

8
MW

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Conventional high speed geared-drive Medium speed geared-drive Direct Drive Floating

Solid line: the installation has been completed; Dashed line: new product was released but the protype is not installed yet.

Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

GWEC.NET 83
China is playing catch-up in Offshore Wind Turbine Technology

11

10

7
MW

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e
2007 2008 2009

Conventional high speed geared-drive Medium speed geared-drive Direct Drive

Solid line: the installation has been completed; Dashed line: new product was released but the protype is not installed yet.

Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020

84 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Floating Offshore Wind Technologies
Offshore wind has enormous potential Northern Europe, the US and the
and is expected to play a big role in east coast of China have maximum Floating offshore wind platform types
future energy mix. However, 80% of nearshore water depths of 30-50m
the world’s offshore wind resource favourable for bottom-fixed offshore
potential lies in waters deeper than wind. The best resources for floating
60m[1]. To fully harvest the global wind are located in Europe, Japan,
offshore wind potential and expedite South Korea, Taiwan, off the west coast
the energy transition and maintain of the US and off the south coast of
a 1.5°C pathway in line with IPCC China (see map on page 10).
recommendation, it has become
imperative for the wind industry Floating wind technologies
to quickly commercialise floating Beginning with the early floating
offshore wind technology (FOWT). offshore wind turbine concept in
As well as providing even better the 1970’s, the first small scale tests
wind resources and larger technical in the 1990’s and the first MW-scale
potential than bottom-fixed offshore installation in the 2000s, the offshore
wind, floating wind could help create industry connected the world’s first
socio-economic benefits such as commercial floating offshore wind
jobs and facilitate a smooth energy Semisubmersible
project, the Hywind Scotland (with TLP Spar (>50m water
transition by bringing expertise from depth)
a single floating cylindrical spar (>50m water depth)
Mooring line stabilized
(>120m water depth)
Ballast stabilized Distributed
the Oil and Gas (O&G) industry structure), in the UK in 2017 and buoyancy
stabilized
into offshore wind while re-skilling commissioned the world largest
workers who may be dislocated from offshore wind turbine, MHI Vestas
the fossil fuel sectors V164-8.4MW model, in Portugal in
2019.

[1] NREL, EIC Global Offshore Wind Report 2019:


Norwep, Equinor, internal analysis
Source: Aqua-RET

GWEC.NET 85
The benefits and challenges associated with three basic floater concepts

Spar Semisubmersible TLP


Overview: Overview: Overview:
• Simplest concept and attractive dynamics • Most popular concept and less attractive dynamics • Attractive dynamics but not widely deployed
• Minimum depth 80m during whole installation process • Typically requires moveable water ballast to limit tilt • Achieves static stability through mooring line tension with a
• Achieves stability through ballast installed below its main • Requires dry dock for fabrication submerged buoyancy tank
buoyancy tank • Achieves static stability by distributing buoyancy widely at the • Typically requires purpose-built installation vessel
• Complex manufacturing and Weight for 6 MW: ~3.500 t water plane • Weight for 6 MW: ~2.000 t
• Weight for 6 MW: ~3.000 t

Benefits: Benefits: Benefits:


• Inherent stability • Heave plates for reducing heave response • High stability, low motions
• Suitable for even higher sea states • Broad weather window for installation • Having a good water-depth flexibility
• Soil condition insensitivity • Depth independence • Small seabed footprint and Short mooring lines
• Cheap & simple mooring & anchoring system • Soil condition insensitivity • Simple & light structure, easy for O&M
• Simple fabrication process • Cheap & simple mooring & anchoring • Lower material costs due to structural weight of the
• Low operational risk system; Overall lower risk substructure
• Little susceptible to corrosion • Simple installation & decommissioning as specialized vessel • Onshore or dry dock assembly possible
required

Challenges: Challenges: Challenges:


• High cost, 5-8 mEUR/MW (based on the 30 MW demo); • Non-industrialized fabrication • Unstable during assembly, requiring the use of special
• Heavy weight, with long mooring lines and long & heavy • Higher exposure to waves leads to lower stability and impacts vessel
structure on turbine • High vertical load moorings
• Deep drafts limit port access and Large seabed footprint • Labour intensive and long lead time • Complex & costly mooring & anchoring system making it
• Relatively large motions • Large and complex structure, so complicated in fabrication the most expensive floater design type
• Assembly in sheltered deep water challenging and time- • Foundation always built in one piece, requiring dry dock or • Mooring tendons presenting higher operational risk in case
consuming special fabrication yard with skid facilities of mooring failure and add requirements on site seabed
• High fatigue loads in tower base • Lateral movement presents potential problems for the export conditions
• Specialised installation vessels needed cable

Source: Stiesdal A/S, NREL, DNV.GL, Carbon Trust, IRENA

86 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


There are three basic floating base experts expect that the direction
types[2] which are mainly derived from of floating base development will
oil and gas experience namely, Deep- be to design a common floating
water floating Spar, Semisubmersible platform that can host several
and Tension-leg platform (TLP). types of a turbines, combined with
Associated benefits and challenges hybrid renewable energy sources
of the basic floaters are presented in such as wave, solar and Power to X
table below. generation.

In the past, the deep-water floating Current status of commercialization


spar was most used in floating
pedestals, but the development of Although different floating
the semi-submersible floating base technologies have been tested
has gained popularity. According to through demonstration and pilot
GWEC Market Intelligence’s global projects in the past decades,
floating offshore wind database, current floater production is not
cumulatively 15 floating projects will industrialised yet and has just
come into operation by the end of entered the pre-commercial phase.
2020, of which ten (67%) use the However, according to GWEC Market
semi-submersible floater, and five Intelligence’s global offshore floating
use Spar (33%). The study completed wind project database (see table 2),
by University of Strathclyde Glasgow, floating wind installations are likely
DNV.GL and other two organizations to take off from 2025 (when four
in 2019 also predicts the semi- 150-200 MW floating projects will be
submersible floater to be the market online) and full commercialisation
leader with a share of about 62% is expected to be achieved by the
by 2022. Although TLP has better end of this decade (when GW-level
flexibility in shallower and deeper large scale floating projects could be
waters; its current market share is connected in both Europe and East
relatively lower due to complex Asia).
installation and needs a cost reduction Our projection for the
strategy for mooring installation. commercialisation of floating wind
Moving forward, offshore wind
[2] Barge is also mentioned as a floating type in other studies, but not widely deployed so far due to heavy structure
(concrete) and weight.

GWEC.NET 87
could also be justified by recent
Global Floating Offshore Wind Project Pipeline commitments and partnerships
made primarily by oil majors, large
Operational Projects Projects under Construction or plan to be Projects announced in developing European utilities and technology
( Demonstration and trial phase) built by 2025 partnerships or auctions and to be providers in the past 18 months.
(Pre-commercial phase) operational by 2030 (Commercial phase)
Selected activities in this business
Hywind Demo, Norway (2.3 MW)- 2009 EolMed project, France (24.8 MW)- 2021 JERA, ademe and Ideol project (2000
segment by three groups are
MW)- Japan
summarised below:
WindFloat 1 Prototype, Portugal (2 MW)- Provence Grand Large floating, France Equinor & KNOC floating projects
2011 (25.2 MW)- 2021 (800MW)-South Korea
Oil majors
Kabashima Floating, Japan (2 MW)- 2013 DemoSATH, Spain (2 MW)- 2021 Ulsan 1GW floating (1000 MW)- South
Korea Equinor, a pioneer in floating
Fukushima FORWARD, Japan (2 MW)- 2013 Hywind Tampen, Norway (88 MW)- 2022 Equinor floating project (300 MW)- Greece wind, was recently joined by other
Fukushima FORWARD, Japan (7 MW)- 2016 Atlantic Marine Energy Test Site, Ireland FLAGSHIP Iberdrola (10 MW)- Norway oil majors, such as Shell and Total,
(30MW)- 2022 to start working in partnership
Hywind Scotland, UK (30 MW)- 2017 Les Éoliennes Flottantes du Golfe du Lion, Erebus demonstration (TOTAL) project (96 with the utilities/developer in the
France (30 MW)- 2023 MW)- UK floating offshore wind business
Floatgen, France (2 MW)- 2017 Groix Belle Ile wind farm, France (28.5 Parque Eólico Gofio (50 MW)- Spain segment. Aside from the Hywind
MW)- 2023
Tampen project in North Sea to
Fukushima FORWARD, Japan (5 MW)- 2017 CTG first floating tender, China (10 MW)- Industry proposed floating projects (1000 be built by 2022, Equinor plans to
2022 MW)- Norway
develop floating wind projects in
Kincardine, UK (2 MW testing)- 2018 Aqua Ventus, USA (12 MW)- 2023 Celtic Sea Floating (1000 MW)- The UK
Spain, Greece and South Korea.
Hibikinada KitaKyushu Demo, Japan (3 Goto (GCS) Floating, Japan (21MW)- French floating auctions (750MW)- France Through the partnership with Korea
MW)- 2019 2023
National Oil Corporation (KNOC),
PLOCAN’s Test Site, Spain (0.2 MW)- 2019 Celtic Sea Folating, UK (32MW)- 2024
Equinor recently commenced LiDAR
WindFloat Atlantic, Portugal (25.2 MW)- Equinor floating Canary Islands, Spain installations to conduct metocean data
2020 (200 MW)- 2025
measurements for a potential 800 MW
Nezzy2 Floating, Germany (testing-1.5 Donghae 1, South Korea (200 MW)-
floating offshore wind project in South
MW)- 2020 2024
Korea. In early 2019, Shell joined
Kincardine, UK (48MW)- 2020 Redwood Coast offshore wind project,
USA (150 MW)
seven other partners and signed
a Memorandum of Understanding
TetraSpar Demo, Norway (3.6 MW)- 2020e Sicilian Channel TetraSpar floating project,
Italy (250MW)- 2025 (MOU) with the City of Ulsan in South
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2020 Korea to explore large-scale floating
offshore wind development. Shell

88 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


also took over EOLFI, a pure-play been supporting the development of Europe. Aside from exploring
French floating wind developer, to of floating technology and will soon opportunities in Europe, the France-
enhance its existing expertise in the install the 25 MW Provence Grand based pure floating foundations
floating wind section at the end of floating project in the Mediterranean. player Ideol signed a MOU with
that year. Following a partnership In Germany, utilities EnBW joined Kerogen Capital in May 2020 to
established with Simply Blue Energy forces with Aerodyn to accelerate assess the benefits of using offshore
in March 2020 to develop a 96 the commercial development of the wind to power oil & gas platforms
MW floating project in the Celtic radical 15MW Nezzy2 twin-rotor in South Korea. Additionally, Naval
Sea, UK, the French oil major Total offshore floater. In Spain, through the Energies, a sub-system engineering
joined Offshore Renewable Energy offshore wind joint-venture created firm with floating project already
(ORE) Catapult’s national Floating in 2019, European utilities EDP and locked in France, signed a MOU
Offshore Wind Centre of Excellence Engie are also interested in floating with Japanese partner Hitachi
(FOWCoE) together with Shell, wind. In China, CTG announced Zosen to extend their collaboration
Equinor and other seven offshore the plan to launch its first floating after completing a floating wind
wind developers in summer 2020. offshore tender for a pilot project off technology feasibility study in Japan
Guangdong province in 2021 and in June 2020. In the same month, the
Utilities and large developers CGN also invested in Eolfi’s 24 MW company also joined the Offshore
floating project in France. Wind California coalition, which
Following a commitment made in
gathers offshore wind developers and
2018 through Innogy to build the Technology providers technology companies supporting
TetraSpar demonstration project with
a goal of 10 GW of installed offshore
Shell in Norway, RWE Renewables There is a long list of technology
wind capacity in California by 2040.
has recently set up a joint pilot providers who are active in the
project DemoSATH with Spanish floating wind sector, some of whom Challenges for floating offshore wind
Saitec Offshore Technologies to start focus purely on floating design. Those development
testing it offshore the Basque Coast in who have already installed floating
Spain where the Spanish Iberdrola turbines include Principle Power and As presented in Market Outlook
decided to step into the floating wind IDEOL and those who are installing or section, GWEC Market Intelligence
business sector as well. The utility are ready to install a floating turbine predicts a total of 6.5 GW floating
is now leading a consortium aiming project include Stiesdal OT, Saitec, offshore wind projects to be built
to test a 10+ MW floating turbine at Naval Energies, Olav Olsen, Saipem by 2030. To reach this level of
the FLAGSHIP project in Norway and and SBM Offshore. In 2020, two installations, however, the following
also plans to deploy another floating French floater designers expanded challenges and barriers need to be
wind power prototype in Spain. their business development out addressed through a cross-industry
In France, French utility EDF has approach and collabation.

GWEC.NET 89
• Floating wind energy cost is high, solution, rather than a sub- investment from private and
almost double the cost of fixed sector of offshore wind. This institutional investors.
bottom offshore wind energy. can be done through adaptation • Cross industry collaboration,
of an optimised engineering
• According to Carbon Trust, there especially O&G and Power-to-X,
are around 40 different floating approach together with market needs to be addressed and
wind concepts at various stages consolidation in floater design. developed for commercialisation
of development, this prevents • Achieving cost reduction through of the FOW sector and to achieve
the floating offshore wind from standardisation, modularisation, cost reduction.
reaching the standardisation and increase of technology readiness
industrialisation. level, lowering cost of project
finance and economy of scale.
• The right policy frameworks
tailor-made to support floating • Coordination amongst the leading
are in general missing in most market players via strategic
markets, which is a barrier partnerships and sharing
for getting the private sector experiences from pioneer
engaged and also increases markets such as Norway, UK,
financial cost compared with Portugal, France and Japan with
bottom-fixed solution due to emerging floating markets such
a lower level of technology as South Korea, Spain, Greece,
readiness. Ireland, Italy and the US.

In order to address these barriers • Strong policy obligations with


long term visibility, such as 2030,
and provide best practices to this fast-
2040 and even 2050 floating wind
moving offshore wind sector, GWEC
targets.
launched a Floating Offshore Wind
Task Force with key global industry • Making floating wind a part of
players on 7 July 2020. GWEC global green recovery strategy
Market Intelligence believes that with dedicated funding for
floating offshore wind is at a critical both floating projects and
turning point and it will succeed if infrastructure.
prioritisation can be made in the • Favourable regulatory
following areas: frameworks and support schemes
tailor-made for floating wind to
• Making floaters commercially
viable as standardised foundation reduce investment risk and attract

90 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Power-to-X
Power-to-X - the missing puzzle piece Offering further market growth
of the global energy transition opportunity for offshore wind Power-to-X : Integration of renewable energy into end-uses

As the world races against time Power-to-X is one of the most


to fight climate change, there is promising storage options for offshore
a growing consensus that Power- wind that minimises waste and
to-X (PtX) could be the solution to maximises efficiency by deploying
help decarbonise some of the most stored power for a myriad of uses.
fossil fuel dependent sectors such Stored electricity can be electrolysed
as heating, transport and industrial into hydrogen to be used as feedstock
processes such as steel and iron to produce bulk chemicals like
making. Power-to-X refers to the methanol or ammonia for industrial
conversion of surplus renewable processes (a concept known as
energy into liquid or gaseous power-to-gas or power-to-chemicals)
chemical energy sources through or combined with captured CO2 to
electrolysis and further synthesis make carbon-neutral liquid fuels such
processes. Continued advancements as crude, gasoline, diesel and aviation
in Power-to-X technology and falling fuels (power-to-liquid fuels).It can also
offshore wind costs, along with generate heat through heat pumps
anticipated changes in policy, suggest or electric boilers for houses and Source: IRENA, 2018d.

that this combination could constitute factories (power-to-heat). Or it can be


an emerging economically viable stored in underground formations like
business model. salt domes and fed back to the grid
when needed.

GWEC.NET 91
Power-to-X is one of the critical process to US$0.8 to $1.6/kg in most
components to reach power systems parts of the world before 2050[2],
based on 100% renewable energy making it price-competitive with its
sources for its ability to increase fossil fuel substitutes.
reliability and quality of demand-
side power management, energy Nonetheless, this technology is now
independence, and climate change limited by the scale of projects,
targets. In addition, PtX internalises making it too expensive to be widely
the cost of the positive externalities deployed at this stage. But the
with the potential for offsetting industry is primed to take the next
investments elsewhere such as in step, so it’s just a matter of “when”.
transmission networks or energy The most economically competitive
storage. As system balancing costs option: offshore wind-to-hydrogen
and risk to the electricity suppliers
would be reduced, this provides a With electrolysers just in their infancy
route to affordable hydrogen that is and still expensive, the potential for
also a desirable investment. cost reductions is enormous. Of all the
renewable electricity options, wind
Capital cost is high but expected to has the highest potential to produce
fall when scale is achieved coupled sustainable hydrogen because of
with government incentivisation its economic competitiveness - the
The technology itself has already price of wind turbines fell by 67.5%
proven to be technically feasible, between 2012 and 2020[3].
however, success now lies on the As the best wind resources are out
economic performance and hence at sea or in rural areas, Power-to-X
the willingness to invest in Power- complements offshore wind perfectly.
to-X technologies. Prices are set to It aids the integration of more
fall just as with offshore wind power, offshore wind by avoiding curtailment
from the current US$2.50 to US$6.8 or constraint due to the lack of
per kilogram[1] for the high-cost transmission capacity and decouples
renewables powered electrolysis renewables power generation

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/how-green-hydrogen-could-make-green-steel-real/
[2] https://about.bnef.com/blog/hydrogen-economy-offers-promising-path-to-decarbonization/
[3] BNEF LCOE Database Jan 2020

92 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


from demand. The hybrid solution Another innovative offshore wind-
Offshore wind to hydrogen solution 1(a)
brings about increasing flexibility to-hydrogen solution aims at using
of the power grid, greater energy excess offshore wind energy to
security and lower price volatility. At power electrolysers located on oil
present, there are two types of widely and gas platforms to produce green 1. Water Purification 2. Electrolyses 3. Compression 4. Storage

explored offshore wind-to-hydrogen hydrogen from seawater. The green O2 H2

solutions. hydrogen is blended into the gas H2

export line and transported to land Green Hydrogen Facility

In the first offshore wind-to-hydrogen via existing gas infrastructure. This Offshore wind farm
solution, surplus offshore wind energy solution is already widely used by
that would otherwise be curtailed - or industrial gas producers to supply H20
purpose-built offshore wind capacity chemical and refining industries. It is
for hydrogen generation - will expected that up to 20% of hydrogen Offshore wind to hydrogen solution 1(b)
power electrolysers that split water by volume can be mixed into existing
molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. gas pipeline flows. While blending
Green hydrogen is then compressed green hydrogen into existing natural
and stored in a tank system, waiting to gas pipelines cannot achieve 100% 1. Electrolytes 2. Compression 3. Storage

be offloaded when energy is needed. decarbonisation, it can still be a O2 H2


H2
contributing solution in the short term
With an offshore hydrogenation Green Hydrogen Facility
as the existing natural gas supply will
platform available, liquid hydrogen
continue to be used to balance power Offshore wind farm Onshore
(LH2) can be converted to synthetic
systems in the immediate future and
natural gas (SNG), better known as Hydrogen pipeline
blending green hydrogen helps to
methane, before being shipped to
partially decarbonise this flow.
end-users for multiple purposes. As Offshore wind to hydrogen solution 2
shipping is a relatively expensive
form of transportation, electrolysers
can also be deployed in coastal areas
connected by HV subsea cables to 1. Water Purification 2. Electrolyses

substations to transport the green O2 H2


H2
hydrogen directly with on-land
Oil & Gas Platform
hydrogen pipelines or by truck after
compression. Offshore wind farm

H20 Natural gas pipeline

GWEC.NET 93
Future of offshore wind to
power-to-X economy

The unprecedented momentum


around the world, coupled with
Power-to-X, could finally accelerate
global decarbonisation efforts
towards 100% renewable energy as
well as other benefits such as greater
energy security, socioeconomic
benefits and boosted economic
activity. Offshore wind to Power-to-X
could be a game-changer within
this decade considering the falling
hydrogen cost and pilot projects
coming online. The two energy
islands in the North and Baltic Seas
(5 GW combined capacity), recently
approved by the Danish government
along with another 1 GW offshore
wind farm are examples of how
government can use offshore wind
and Power-to-X as solutions to reach
a net-zero commitment by 2050 and
be a global leader by utilising cutting
edge technologies while creating
more green jobs. However, unlocking
the benefits of a Power-to-X economy
will require policy coordination
across government, the right policy
frameworks for private investment
and subsidies over the next few
decades, just as was done with
renewables back in the early 2000s.

94 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


CONCLUSION

GWEC.NET 95
Offshore Wind: A Decade of and zero-carbon energy. While the
Steep Growth Ahead COVID-19 pandemic has impacted Key takeaways
energy consumption and supply
At the beginning of this new decade, chains around the world, the offshore • 2019 was a year of record growth, with 6.1 GW of capacity added and
offshore wind is in a dramatically wind sector is expected to be largely cumulative global installations of 29.1 GW.
different position compared to 10 shielded in the long term, due to • Europe is the largest region for installations, but the market is primed to take
years ago. Having multiplied from longer project development timelines off in the Asia-Pacific region, where Mainland China is the global leader in
1 GW of installations primarily in and increasing cost-competitiveness. new capacity and markets like Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea set
Europe in 2010, the offshore wind Employment in offshore wind’s to accelerate to 2030.
market is now primed to accelerate in diverse and highly skilled value • More than 205 GW of new offshore wind capacity is forecast through 2030
markets around the world. Mainland chain offers a huge opportunity for – a 15 GW increase from last year’s business-as-usual outlook.
China is set to lead in new capacity, governments to invest in the sector
while emerging markets in the Asia- for green recovery. • COVID-19 will not significantly impact the global outlook, due to longer
Pacific region and North America are project timelines and concentration of installations in the latter half of the
seeing increased momentum, with As the offshore wind market matures, decade.
Europe expected to maintain steady new areas of innovation will boost • Floating offshore wind is an area of opportunity, set to reach
growth. Through 2030, GWEC Market growth. Floating offshore wind shows commercialisation by 2030 with more than 6 GW installed globally.
Intelligence forecasts more than 205 enormous promise, with 66 MW
• Turbine technology is also set to improve in both efficiency and resilience,
GW of new offshore wind capacity to already installed and significant
resulting in LCOE reductions and increased adoption.
be added globally. investment from oil majors and
leading wind developers. Floating • Offshore wind can be a core pillar of the global energy transition, supported
This is a 15 GW upgrade from the technology will sail through the by Power-to-X solutions, public commitment to decarbonisation and
previous business-as-usual outlook demonstration stage in the first widescale electrification.
in the Global Offshore Wind half of the decade to achieve • Industry must continue horizon-scanning for new areas of innovation,
Report 2019 – buoyed by policy commercialisation by 2030, when learning and improvement to accelerate offshore wind deployment.
ambition, declining technology costs GWEC Market Intelligence forecasts
and international commitments to more than 6 GW installed in markets
decarbonisation, offshore wind is like South Korea, Japan, France,
increasingly viewed as a critical Norway and the UK.
provider of large-scale, affordable

96 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Turbine technology is another industry can build on these to deliver
area to watch, with European and offshore wind’s potential as a core
Chinese OEMs improving capacity pillar of the global energy transition.
and resilience to achieve LCOE
reductions and application in a wider
range of marine environments. The
average size of installed turbines is
on track to be 10-12 MW by 2025
– nearly double the size today. As
hydrogen costs fall and cross-industry
collaboration takes place, Power-to-X
offers a potential solution to allow
offshore wind to scale exponentially
and support the decarbonisation of
fossil fuel-dependent sectors.

These innovations, however, require


adequate policy coordination and
supportive frameworks, a formula
which allowed renewables to
take off over the last decade. As
summarised in this report, there
are already plenty of lessons to be
gleaned from early offshore wind
markets regarding support schemes,
grid integration, cost reduction and
industrial development. There are still
further areas for R&D and investment,
with GWEC and industry players
continuing to scan the horizon for
opportunities to innovate, learn and
improve offshore wind in order to
accelerate its deployment. Combined
with steadfast commitment and
collaboration with government, the

GWEC.NET 97
APPENDIX

98 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Abbreviation
BEIS Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy MoU Memorandum of Understanding
BOEM Bureau of Ocean Energy Management MT Metric Tons
CAPEX Capital Expenditures MW Megawatt
CfD Contract for Difference NDRC National Development and Reform Commission
COP Construction and Operations Plan NEA National Energy Administration
DPP Democratic Progressive Party NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory
ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program O&M Operation and Maintenance
FID Final Investment Decision OEMs Original Equipment Manufacturers
FiT Feed-in-Tariff OFTO Offshore Transmission Owners
FOW Floating Offshore Wind OPEX Operating Expenses
FOWT Floating Offshore Wind Technology OREAC Ocean Renewable Energy Action Coalition
GDP Gross Domestic Product PDP Vietnam Power Development Plan
GW Gigawatt PPA Power Purchase Agreement
GWO Global Wind Organization R&D Research and Development
HVAC High Voltage Alternate Current RD&D Research, Development and Demonstration
HVDC High Voltage Direct Current ROC Renewables Obligation Certificate
IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency SGRE Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
JWPA Japan Wind Power Association SMEs Small Medium Enterprises
LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy TSO Transmission System Operators
LCRs Local Content Requirements TW Terawatt
METI Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry
MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
MOEA Ministry of Economic Affairs
MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade

GWEC.NET 99
About GWEC GWEC Market Intelligence Areas

Market Intelligence
GWEC Market Intelligence provides a Market Insights
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This includes a market outlook, country auction/tender updates

the offshore market among other insights.

GWEC Market Intelligence derives it


insights from its own comprehensive
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industry experts. Wind turbine data, technology Shift to value-focused, new ISP - OEM - Self Perform
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The intelligence team in GWEC consists of
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GWEC Market Intelligence collaborates


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wind association as well as with its
corporate members.
GWEC Market Intelligence created
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100 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020


Reports Frequency
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Wind Energy Statistics (wind energy penetration rate, jobs) Annual

2. Country Profiles/Policy Updates


Country Profiles Onshore/Country Profiles Offshore Quarterly/Ad-hoc
Ad-hoc policy updates Ad-hoc

3. Market Outlook
Global Wind Market Outlook for next five years (Q1 and Q3) Semi-Annual

4. Supply Side Data


Global Wind Turbine Supply Side Data Report (by market, by technology, by turbine size and numbers) Annual

5. Auction/ Tenders
Auction Trends and Learnings Annual/Quarterly
Global Auction Results (database) Annual/Quarterly

6. Offshore Wind Market


Global Offshore Wind Report Annual/Quarterly
Market Entry Opportunity (database) Annual/Quarterly
Global Offshore Project Pipeline (database, in-operation and under-construction) Annual/Quarterly
Global Offshore Turbine Installation Vessel Database Annual/Quarterly

7. Components Assessment
Gearbox (Q4 2019), Blade (2020), followed by other components Special report

8. Wind Asset Owners/ Operators


Ranking of Wind Asset Owners and Operators Globally (Onshore & Offshore) Annual

9. O&M
O&M service provider database (ISP - OEM - Self-perfrom) Annual

10. Energy transition, Digitialzation, Hybrids


Position papers/ studies - Value shift, Corporate PPAs Special report
Government support to wind and other (“true cost of coal”) Special report
New Solutions, GWEC policy recommendations Special report

GWEC.NET 101
Global Wind Energy Council

Rue Belliard 51-53,


1000 Brussels, Belgium
T. +32 490 56 81 39
info@gwec.net

@GWECGlobalWind
@Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)
@Global Wind Energy Council

www.gwec.net

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