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GWEC.NET
Table of Contents
Foreword 2
Executive Summary 6
Part One: Supply Chain 12
Part Two: Policy 21
Part Three: Sustainability of the Industry 28
Part Four: Technology 39
Market Status 2021 55
Markets to Watch 57
Market Outlook 2022-2031 83
Appendix 98
Global Leaders 102
Sponsors and Contacts 104
2
Foreword
4 GWEC.NET
Foreword
A lot has changed in the energy Pacific, the US and beyond are is the single largest threat to global
sector over the past year. The looking to offshore wind as a means biodiversity, including in the ocean,
rebound in the world economy from to diversify and decarbonise their the industry also has a
COVID-19 has led to increased energy supply. responsibility to avoid, mitigate and
demand for energy and other address potential environmental
commodities, with sharply rising 2021 was a remarkable year for impacts as offshore wind expands
prices as a consequence. Global new offshore wind capacity with a off our coasts. There are exciting
supply chains have been disrupted, record 21 GW being installed opportunities for innovation by
challenging the ability of industries globally, more than triple the integrating offshore wind at scale
to deliver on time and within budget. capacity deployed in 2020. Europe with energy islands, interconnector
The energy and supply chain crisis had another strong year, installing links and through Power-to-X.
has been further exacerbated by around 3 GW. The big change
Russia’s unwarranted invasion of happened in mainland China, where Delivering on the ambitions for Ulrik Stridbæk
Ukraine. Facing these grave nearly 17 GW was installed, offshore wind capacity deployment Vice President, Group Regulatory Affairs,
Ørsted
challenges, it has become clear that bringing its total installed capacity will require a massive expansion of
the transition away from a fossil- almost up to par with Europe. the supply chain. In Europe, supply
dependent energy system must be Meanwhile, the industry is seeing chain capacity will need to more
accelerated. new build-out targets announced than triple towards 2030, and other
that would be almost unfathomable regions will have to build up supply
Today, the offshore wind industry just a few years ago. These targets chains almost from scratch. A main
finds itself at a new inflection point. hold promise that the record challenge will be to attract the
After a decade of industrialisation installations seen in 2021 will not be necessary investments while
and cost reductions, offshore wind a one-off event. ensuring a healthy and economically
has become a well-established and sound supply chain industry. At the
mature industry. Despite recent The offshore wind industry, same time, the industry needs to
cost inflation, offshore wind is however, cannot rest on its laurels continue to demonstrate the
firmly cost-competitive with and must continue to evolve and sustainability of offshore wind,
fossil-powered alternatives, and innovate. The carbon footprint of including to local communities and
even more so in light of the current the industry needs to be minimised biodiversity.
high price environment for fossil through the decarbonisation of
fuels. supply chains, including the steel Ørsted appreciates the good
that goes into producing wind working relationships in the sector,
There is no longer any doubt that turbines and towers. Offshore wind not least as expressed by GWEC.
large-scale offshore wind will be an needs to be built in balance with We look forward to continuing to
important part of the future nature, carefully managing its work with these important agendas
decarbonised electricity system. impact on the environment and in 2022 and beyond, including at
Governments in Europe, the Asia- biodiversity. While climate change COP27 in Egypt.
6
Executive Summary
The Data: 2021 - The best year in China and 3.6 MW in Norway. As
of 2021, a total of 121.4 MW of
floating wind is installed globally, of
for the offshore wind industry which 110.9 MW (91.4%) is in
Europe and the remaining 10.5 MW
(8.6%) in Asia.
Market status In addition to the new capacity from
2021 saw 21.1 GW offshore wind Asia, Europe is the only region which Market Outlook
reach grid connection worldwide, reported new offshore wind Political commitment to net zero
three times more than in 2020, installations last year. The UK had a gathered global momentum at
setting a new record in the offshore record year in 2021 with more than COP26 in Glasgow. Offshore wind
wind industry. The 21.1 GW of new 2.3 GW reaching grid connection; power is poised to play a vital role
installations brings global cumulative however, it lost its title as the world’s on achieving carbon neutrality. Feng Zhao
offshore wind power capacity to 56 largest offshore wind market in total Coupled with renewed policy Head of Strategy and
Market Intelligence,
GW, showing year-over-year (YoY) installations to China. Coming in urgency for achieving energy Global Wind Energy Council
growth of 58% and representing 7% second for new installations in independence from Russian oil and
of total global cumulative wind Europe is Denmark with 605MW gas, and volatility in fossil fuel
installations. commissioned last year, followed by markets in general, the global
Netherlands (392 MW) and Norway offshore wind market outlook in the
Of the 21.1 GW in new offshore (3.6MW). medium and long-term looks
installations, 80% was contributed by extremely promising.
China. This makes 2021 the fourth In total installations, Europe remains
year that China has led the world in the largest offshore wind regional With an expected compound
new offshore wind installations. This market as of the end of 2021. The average annual growth rate (CAGR)
astounding growth in China was region was responsible for 50.4% of of 6.3% until 2026 and 13.9% up to
chiefly driven by the FiT cut-off for total cumulative global offshore wind the beginning of next decade, new
offshore wind starting from 1 January installations, followed by Asia with annual installations are expected to
2022. A similar situation also 49.5% market share. Outside Europe sail past the milestones of 30 GW in
occurred in Vietnam, which and Asia, North America has 42 MW 2027 and 50 GW in 2030.
commissioned 779 MW of intertidal offshore wind in operation as of the
(nearshore) projects last year, end of last year, contributing only GWEC Market Intelligence expects
making it the third-largest market in 0.1% of total offshore wind that over 315 GW of new offshore
new installations in 2021. Taiwan only installations. wind capacity will be added over the
commissioned the 109 MW next decade (2022-2031), bringing
Changhua demonstration project in Last year also saw 57 MW of new total global offshore wind capacity to
2021, due to COVID-19-related floating wind installed worldwide, of 370 GW by the end of 2031. Of this
disruptions. which 48 MW was in the UK, 5.5 MW new volume, 29% will be connected
in the first half of the decade (2022- based on the existing global
2026). This still falls short of the 380 offshore project pipeline, but our
GW offshore wind installation target medium-term outlook (2027-2031)
by 2030 set by GWEC and IRENA in reflects current declared national
its UN Energy Compact in 2021. and regional targets. Given the
energy system reform packages
As the volume of annual offshore still underway in Europe and other
wind installations is expected to regions in response to Russia’s
more than double from 21.1 GW in invasion of Ukraine and fossil fuel
2021 to 54.9 GW in 2031, offshore’s price volatility, it is highly likely
share of new global wind that these targets will increase
installations is set to grow from 23% further and GWEC Market
in 2021 to at least 30% by 2031. Intelligence’s 10-year forecast
could be significantly revised
Considering the increased floating upward this year.
wind target in the UK and the
accelerated floating project On the other hand, there is currently
development activities in Europe, an implementation gap between
Asia and North America, which declared targets and the rate of
bring the current global floating annual installations. Enabling an
project pipeline to 120 GW, GWEC acceleration in offshore wind
Market Intelligence has upgraded its energy deployment requires
global floating wind forecast and measures to accelerate permitting
predicts that 18.9 GW is likely to be procedures for wind projects in the
built globally by 2030, of which 11 near-term, policies to initiate
GW will be in Europe, 5.5 GW in structural policy framework
Asia and the rest in North America. changes in the mid-term and
commitments that can justify early
It is important to emphasise that and sustained investment in supply
our near-term outlook is primarily chain and infrastructure.
8 GWEC.NET
Executive Summary
10 GWEC.NET
Executive Summary
Chapter Sponsor
12
Part One: Supply Chain
The graphic below sets out the split more diverse. The supply chain for
Securing the supply chain in value for an offshore wind farm,
highlighting that almost two-thirds of
critical components such as cabling
and foundations is dominated by
the value from offshore wind comes European suppliers, but there is also
GWEC Market Intelligence’s Global Based on GWEC Market from non-turbine elements. That deep experience in Asia and the
Wind Supply Side Data 2021 report Intelligence’s the latest offshore wind includes 40% of value from other Middle East. Installation capability is
shows that 10 wind turbine market outlook (see page 84), we capital elements such as focused in countries such as Norway,
manufacturers installed 3,340 units of believe that China has the capacity substructure and foundations, the Netherlands, Belgium and
offshore wind turbines in 2021, to deliver the expected demand in electrical infrastructure, and Denmark, but there is also growth in
making it a record year in offshore this decade. In Europe, no assembly and installation. expertise in other European
wind turbine delivery. Of the 10 bottlenecks are expected for countries as well as South East Asia.
suppliers, seven are based in China, offshore wind turbine supply in the For Chinese projects, this supply
two in Europe and one in Japan. near-term. However, expansion and chain is also based almost entirely As we see ongoing growth in
Thanks to an astounding level of new investment may be required in within China, mirroring the situation important markets like Southeast
offshore wind growth in China driven preparation for strong growth from with OEM supply. However, for the Asia and the US, we are also seeing
by the feed-in tariff cut-off, Chinese 2025 onward. As the offshore market rest of the world, the supply chain is growth in supply chains, through a
suppliers dominated the offshore continues to globalise and moves
wind rankings last year with Siemens into new markets away from Europe Global offshore wind turbine manufacturing capacity, 2021
Gamesa and Vestas dropping out of and China, it is becoming
the top three for the very first time. increasingly imperative for top tier Japan 1.1%
However, the global offshore wind supply chain providers to invest in
market excluding China has been emerging markets ready to supply South Korea 2.6%
dominated by Siemens Gamesa, growing demand. Taiwan 3.8%
Vestas and most recently GE
Renewable Energy, and until 2021, Compared with onshore wind, the
no Chinese offshore wind turbines global supply chain which sits
had been installed outside China. behind offshore wind is more
diverse. It includes not just the OEMs Europe 32.1% China 60.4%
26.5GW
Globally, 16 wind turbine suppliers and key component suppliers of
are still active in the offshore sector, nacelles, blades, generators and
of which 10 OEMs are based in converters, gearboxes, bearings and
China. This makes China the world’s control equipment, but also suppliers
largest offshore turbine of cabling, foundations and
manufacturing base, followed by substations, as well as suppliers to
Europe (including Denmark, engineering, procurement and
Germany, France and the UK), construction (EPCs) and other Note: Wind turbine manufacturing capacity refers to wind turbine nacelle assembly capability and does not represent
Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. installation contractors. actual nacelle production in 2021 Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2022
combination of inward investment, supply chain, not just OEMs. CAPEX for typical fixed-bottom offshore wind farm, 2020
partnerships and diversification of Foundations, towers, cables and
domestic players. installation vessel suppliers are all Insurance During Construction 0.9%
working hard to keep up this rapid Construction Finance 3.9%
Headwinds facing current wind growth, while also looking at the
Contingency 9.3%
supply chain rapidly emerging floating offshore
Continued growth of offshore wind wind sector and its own growth Decommissioning 3%
requires a healthy supply chain able needs. Turbine 34.7%
Plant
to meet the demands of a growing Commissioning 0.9%
pipeline of projects, as well as supply Over the last few years, revenue Lease Price 4.5% Soft Costs
17.9%
into new markets across the world. pressure, pandemic-related Turbine 34.7%
Yet the offshore wind sector’s supply challenges in logistics and workforce
chain remains under pressure from availability, the ongoing US-China Balance of System
47.5%
rising commodity prices and trade conflict and a rise in prices for
shrinking margins, which is raw materials and commodities have
Assembly Development 2.3%
undermining the offshore wind impacted costs and profitability and installation 10.4%
industry’s ability to grow enough to across the offshore wind supply
meet rising global demand and chain. As the recent re-imposition of Electrical Infrastructure 17.6%
address the challenge of restrictions in China has also shown,
decarbonisation. the potential for delays and supply Substructure and Foundation 12.6%
chain bottlenecks due to new and
Source: 2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review, Tyler Stehly and Patrick Duffy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2021.
These pressures have been created ongoing lockdowns also remains a Note: The reference project represents a typical 600 MW fixed-bottom offshore wind project comprising 75 wind turbines
by a successful period of growth, concern. at 8.0 MW each, operating for 25 years with no major O&M events.
14 GWEC.NET
Part One: Supply Chain
next generation of projects built over which concepts or fabricators Component-level LCOE breakdown for typical fixed-bottom offshore wind farm operating
using larger turbines. Installers need they need to be working with. for 25 years, 2020
to invest in new vessels and
equipment to successfully install Not only does the industry need to 77
80
these bigger machines, while invest to maintain growth in mature
infrastructure like ports must also markets like Europe and China, it is Operation and Maintenance
LCOE ($/MWh)
invest to accommodate these larger also seeing a rapid scale-up in the 60
turbines and the anticipated growth US and the rest of Southeast Asia, as Soft Costs
in project volume.3 well as emerging demand in South 40
America and the Pacific. This
This is true even in mature fixed- globalisation of offshore wind will Balance of System
20
bottom markets. In floating offshore test logistics and supply chains that
wind markets, there will be new are already under pressure. There Turbine
Dvelopment
Electrical Infrastructure
Lease Price
Decommissioning Band
Construction Financing
Contingency
Plant Commissioning
Operation
Maintenance
LCOE
Turbine
Engineering Managment
platforms needing additional space capacity in emerging offshore
for fabrication and storage, as well as markets, in part to meet local content
new anchor and mooring fabrication requirements, but also to ensure
and marshalling requirements. These sufficient sector capacity. Most
additional capacity demands will be obviously, the US market is
on top of growing demand for larger continuing to grow with a multi-GW
sites needed for manufacture of pipeline in place across the length of
larger components. In addition, both the Eastern Seaboard, as well as an
fixed-bottom and floating sites emerging pipeline on the west coast. Source: 2020 Cost of Wind Energy Review, Tyler Stehly and Patrick Duffy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2021. Note: The reference
project represents a typical 200 MW onshore wind plant in the interior US, comprising 73 wind turbines at 2.8 MW each, operating for 25 years
require space for project staging and Market scale, activist state with no major O&M events.
assembly. legislatures and supply chain laws
will lead to new investments both in
The floating offshore wind market is turbine manufacture and associated growth due to the challenge of other suppliers as these markets
still maturing, however, it has industries. offshore wind developers finding grow.
multiple players and concepts sufficient local capability. In other
approaching a high state of In growing markets like South Korea, markets the presence of existing However, in all of these new markets,
technology readiness. This creates a Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam there are manufacturing conglomerates investment in new manufacturing
challenge for ports in floating differing expectations on local means there are potential partners facilities will be difficult to justify if
offshore wind markets that are content. Most challenging for the looking to work with OEMs and project economics remain
looking to prepare for a growing offshore wind industry has been
volume of floating offshore wind local content provisions in place in 3. See for example this reaction from leading port Esbjerg to the signing of the May Esbjerg declaration raising offshore
wind ambitions in Europe. https://portesbjerg.dk/en/about/news/six-billion-danish-kroner-secure-ambitious-eu-offshore-
activity, but do not yet have clarity Taiwan, which have slowed market wind-targets
16 GWEC.NET
Part One: Supply Chain
These pressures impact not just On top of this, the sector is now
OEMs but the whole supply chain. beginning to plan out and deliver a Share of top three producing countries in total processing of selected minerals
The complexity of offshore wind first generation of new GW-scale and fossil fuels, 2019 (%)
projects compared to onshore, floating offshore wind projects in
means that turbine costs are a lower markets like the UK, France, Korea
proportion of capital costs. This and Japan. The sector has a lot of Oil refining Fossil Fuels
means that changes in the cost base confidence that comes from the
LNG export
of companies providing critical valuable lessons of scaling up fixed
elements of an offshore wind farm, bottom offshore wind. However, Copper Minerals
including the towers, substations, floating offshore wind projects will
cables, jackets, as well as critical need to be able to demonstrate Nickel
components such as generators, can rapid cost reduction, which is made
Cobalt
also have a significant impact on more challenging in the face of
project costs and economic viability. wider cost pressures in the market. Lithium
This wider offshore wind supply Managing supply chain risks Rare earths
chain, of course, faces the same within the industry
0 20 40 60 80 100
pressures on commodity pricing Despite pressures on supply chain,
and supply chain bottlenecks. there is a lot the sector can do to
Installers and shipping providers work together as well as alongside United States Russia Australia Indonesia Finland Argentina Estonia
also face the same issues. These policy makers. China Qatar Chile Japan Belgium Malaysia
18 GWEC.NET
Part One: Supply Chain
regulatory and tariff frameworks are growth are not held back. The manufacturing, cables, and other
drawn up in a way that can respond design of support systems can inward investments. Contracted
effectively to future upward price better be factored in price risk into tariffs were inflation-index linked,
pressures. long term project management, for protecting contracts and suppliers in
example linking contract pricing to the event of inflation. There is an
The war in Ukraine, and the delivery dates, and ensuring that opportunity to learn from this
subsequent rise in energy prices tariff support programmes are able experience and look at the design of
globally, has forced governments to to account for price changes over tariffs to take account of future price
actively engage in and support time. In the same way that auction risks and changes to capital costs.7
energy markets. This action is vital processes currently take account of Similarly taxation policy has been
for protecting industry and supply chain and project readiness, used in various markets e.g., the US.
consumers, and there is an so they also need to look at how they
understanding that these are issues help remove delivery risks due to What is clear though is that while
beyond the ability of individual changing costs that are outside of an supply chain and cost pressures are
businesses or sectors to manage. A individual project or even the creating headwinds for many in the
parallel challenge exists in our sector’s control. offshore wind industry, the longer-
energy transition, however. term outlook remains strong, but we
There are important lessons that can must avoid delays in scaling up
As renewable energy has matured, it be drawn from how governments offshore wind because of current
has delivered rapid price reductions have supported the growth of and potential persistent cost
that have benefited consumers. Part offshore wind and other industries challenges, that are impacting sector
of the credit for these cost reductions seen as critically important. For profitability and supply chain
must go to governments which have example, within the UK, between the competitiveness, though are not
moved from unilateral tariffs that top closure of the Renewables taking away from the cost
up market prices to mechanisms that Obligation and the commencement competitiveness of offshore wind as
give price stability and create a of the Contract for Difference an energy technology.
ceiling on cost. This shift has been regime, the UK Government wider sustainability goals are
successful in protecting consumers, awarded a series of FIDER (Final There is a need to focus on practical maintained. Economic sustainability
attracting finance and bringing down Investment Decision – Enabling steps within industry and needs to remain part of this effort to
costs. Renewables) contracts.6 These government so that the offshore wind ensure the long-term health of this
contracts successfully created a industry can continue to grow and vital industry.
But with renewables now clearly low pipeline of offshore wind projects deliver on wider ambitions to
cost, there is now a need to look at and avoided the challenge in the decarbonise and deliver new
how to use these mechanisms as a shift between support mechanisms employment. Offshore wind has
6. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/
way of absorbing inflationary leading to a gap in orders at the time shown in its 30-year lifetime how it final-investment-decision-fid-enabling-for-renewables-
pressure, so that investment in new the UK was seeking to capture and can innovate and scale up effectively, investment-contracts
7. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/future-funding-for-
projects and associated supply chain grow investment in blade and it is working hard to ensure that nuclear-plants
Case Study: Building the offshore wind factory of the future workforce, noticeable progress is
Provided by: Bryan O’Neil, Director Global Offshore and Power Generation, The Lincoln Electric Company underway with growing partnerships
made up of local trade unions,
With the urgency to rapidly increase As foundation weight and diameters example, recent improvements in technology and trade schools to close
installed offshore wind capacity by 2030 increase, capacity from the past welding processes and plate preparation the workforce gap. These cooperative
and 2050, key industry leaders and new decades is undersized to meet the is now considered “industry-leading to industry building blocks are critical to
market entrants for fabrication are practical requirements of new wind world-class performance” when narrow increasing the global supply chain
investing significantly in the expansion of tower sizes and installation schedule. grooves are used (photo below ranging capacity to support the ambitious global
the supply chain capacity. Leaders in fixed foundations (jackets from 8° to <16°). At the same time, production required.
and monopiles) and future floating lessons learned from other operations
concepts are investing to build the common to the shipbuilding industry There is no doubt that the evolving
factory of the future to accommodate also apply to new floating foundations complexity of large-scale offshore wind
increasingly larger turbine sizes. concepts. projects will continue testing global
supply chain resiliency and the industry
The factory of the future is underway The adoption of newer manufacturing will need to respond in kind. A key to
now, with new sites under construction technology for offshore wind will drive success will be industry leaders, trade
at all corners of the world. New the requirements to deliver consistent groups and suppliers advocating for the
factories are incorporating the highest quality, with reduced production, expansion of technology, who will also
levels of automation for metal forming, fabrication and installation cost. lead the way to build the factory of the
welding and material handling to future together.
manage the complexity of producing The expansion of higher levels of
such large structures, never fabricated automation technology is driven by Find out more here: https://www.
before. Investment in additional supply economic and resource necessity. This is lincolnelectric.com/en
chain capacity and technical capability only possible through the integration of
will solve many of the constraints advanced adaptive process controls,
existing within the current global industrial robots and customized hard
supply chain. automation and metal processing
equipment for the new industry size and
The factory of the future depends on an weight requirements.
expanding supply chain of new steel mill
capacities to reduce the impact This key industry driver also backfills
acquisition and transport cost. Larger one of the largest challenges the entire
100 mm cross section (avg. steel thickness), plate sizes aid tremendously in the global industry faces: a declining base of
Monopile: 2200 MT weight / 99 M long
Photo courtesy of The Lincoln Electric Company
process of plate lengthening and rolling highly skilled trade workers relative to
for such large diameter foundations. For demand. Concerning the global
20 GWEC.NET
PART TWO: POLICY
Country Public agency Project phase/element Rental Units In two-stage markets it is common
England and Wales The Crown Estate Operation 2% Of gross revenue41 for there to be a wide project area,
Netherlands The Central Government Real Estate Agency Operation €0.98 (US$1.15) Per MWh42 within which the final site can be
Construction €650 (US$763) Per MW per year optimised. The same wide area is
Array cables €3.29 (US$3.86) Per m2 (single, one-off payment) true for cable corridors, giving
Scotland Crown Estate Scotland Operation £1.07 (US$1.48) Per MWh43
flexibility on grid connection points.
United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Construction US$3.00 Per acre per year
Each lease agreement has similar
Operation 2% Of gross revenue
but differing terms. It would help the
Export cable US$70.00 Per mile
industry speed up development and
Source: World Bank Group. 2021. Key Factors for Successful Development of Offshore Wind in Emerging Markets. ESMAP, World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO repeatability if, through good
22 GWEC.NET
practice sharing, greater UK Round 4 Agreements for Lease projects and strives to do everything
commonality of leasing agreements where only two milestones are it can to prevent, manage and
could be arrived at. Some best used – material evidence of initial mitigate them.
practice principles have emerged in site development and consent
offshore wind leasing: application – with flexibility for As the sector grows globally, and the
force majeure events. proportion of sea area that is used
O Leasing should cover Territorial increases, the cumulative effects of
Waters (out to 12 nautical miles) O Sharing of survey data into the sites need to be better understood.
and the Exclusive Economic Zone public domain, which allows other A leading initiative is the North Sea
(out to 200 nautical miles) to sea users to become informed. Net Gain study, led by The Crown
maximise opportunities in each Note wind resource data is Estate in partnership with the
country. commercially sensitive and so its Dutch-led Rich North Sea
release is commonly delayed for programme, which aims to ensure
O Marine spatial planning (MSP) two years or until power price that decisions about the next
should be used to identify large auctions are completed. generation of offshore wind farms
sea areas within which projects are based on the most
can be located. A pragmatic and O Depositing health and safety comprehensive information and will
proportional approach can be (H&S) data into an industry bring about net gains for
utilised. accepted system allows improved biodiversity. The learnings from this
H&S management for the good of work will have relevance for other
O Leasing processes should be all. A good example of such as markets, though they will need to be
robust and transparent. This aids system is the G+ Global Offshore adapted for local and regional
developers in understanding the Wind Health and Safety circumstances.
process. It also reduces the Organisation.
possibilities of legal challenges. During the formative stages of the
O Regular release of seabed, for offshore wind market, the cost of
O Tendering should commence with example every 2-4 years, to give a seabed rights for development was
a prequalification questionnaire steady flow of projects. nominal. However, in 2018, the US
(PQQ) stage to ensure tenderers introduced competitive auctions for
have the capability to deliver on The renewables sector is committed development rights. This was first
projects. to sustainable development and adopted for the Massachusetts award
harmonious co-existence with local of three wind energy areas and
O Leasing should be kept simple communities and ocean users where resulted in option fees that trebled in
and encourage the pace of wind farms are built, as well as comparison to previous awards.
development while maintaining adhering to high environmental and
flexibility in the light of unforeseen social standards. The industry takes Under its constitution BOEM is
obstacles. A good example is the into consideration the impacts of its required to achieve “fair value” for
its land transactions. Similarly, The attractive sites and fewer bidders,
Crown Estate (TCE), through The but they are still material.
Crown Estate Act 1961, is required to
achieve “best consideration” for its The overriding challenge for leasing
dealings. Therefore, the results of is that the current pipeline of projects
BOEM’s auctions somewhat forced across the world, especially allowing
the hand of TCE to use competitive for attrition and delay, is insufficient
bidding in Round 4. to meet the long-term needs of the
offshore wind sector. Currently there
Unfortunately, the result of Round 4 in are some 700 GW of projects in
the UK, assuming a five-year development,1 however more than
development cycle, was option fees half of these are at the conceptual or
six times higher than those of very early stages. The total amount
Massachusetts on a $/MW basis. The with approved consent or in
subsequent New York Bight auctions operation is just 141 GW.
in 2022 then delivered similar option
fee levels. These fees equate to The industry target (in line with IEA
o
approximately 20% of total project and IRENA 1.5 C scenarios) is 380
capital investment – raising the GW by 2030 and then 2,000 GW by
concern that this will subsequently 2050. GWEC therefore calls on
find its way into prices paid by governments to increase and speed
consumers, and also squeeze out up the release of seabed leasing
smaller local developers at the over the next decade to meet
leasing stage. climate goals, create a more
sustainable pipeline for the industry
This overheating of the market and ensure steady delivery of
appears to be a result of new offshore wind benefits to local
entrants with deep pockets and the communities.
limited release of development
seabed into a hungry market. The
Carolina Long Bay auction of two
wind energy areas in May 2022
resulted in option fees a little under
half those of Round 4 and New York
Bight, likely as a result of less
24
Part two: Policy
authorised the project. Mature offshore wind markets such concept in 2020 by leading an part by the energy security crisis
as the UK have not been spared intergovernmental exploratory arising from the military conflict in
At the heart of the similar difficulties. In May 2022 the phase during which any potential Ukraine.
lawsuit is the nature campaigning group Suffolk hurdles to development are cleared
allegation that the Energy Action Solutions (SEAS) filed before an application is processed. A crucial factor of this commitment,
DOI’s Bureau of an application for a judicial review of Once an area is approved for and of the recent REPowerEU Action
Energy the UK government’s decision to development, the applicant is Plan, is to tackle the permitting
Management approve the remaining 1.7 GW of the automatically allowed to carry out bottlenecks that are holding back the
(BOEM) failed to East Anglia Hub offshore wind preliminary investigations, including expansion of wind and solar energy.
adequately “balance cluster of projects.While the two an environmental impact assessment This includes enshrining a principle
ocean resource wind farms will be sited more than (EIA). that renewables are in the
conservation and 30km from the coast, SEAS alleges “overriding public interest”, which
management” when that construction works and onshore In its first offshore wind energy would strengthen the hand of
authorising Vineyard Wind I. This substations would have a detrimental roadmap, dating back to 2018, the developers by prioritising the
sets a dangerous precedent for the impact on the local farmland. Netherlands committed to 11.5 GW buildout of projects on a case-by-
“enormous pipeline of projects the Approval of the 1.7 GW tranche was by 2030 and identified specific areas case basis within the overarching
government plans to facilitate”, the already delayed to allow for more for project development. It also set aim of achieving climate neutrality.
complainant claims. The case extensive consultation, including on out conditions for wind farm
highlights the lack of shared wildlife protection, causing the construction, including on location, Measures to support project
recognition on the balance of developer to miss the deadline for nature protection measures and the deployment
interests between conservation and Round 4 of the UK’s Contracts for necessary permits.1 By researching Streamlined and sensible permitting
renewables development. Difference (CfD) auction. the structure of the site, the seabed, schemes for offshore wind projects
wind speeds and water data in are needed to accelerate
Also in the US, the trailblazing Cape Another UK offshore wind project, advance of bidding, developers have deployment and minimise project
Wind project, which was to install Vattenfall’s 1.8 GW Norfolk Vanguard, up-front access to information attrition. The following measures
468 MW of capacity in the shallow had its initial development consent required for development and should be considered, among
waters off Massachusetts, was quashed following a judicial review, financing. The Netherlands has since others:
“litigated to death” after 16 years but was finally authorised nearly two raised its target to 21 GW by 2030.
and $100 million in private capital. years later. It also missed the O Mandated maximum lead times to
Despite passing stiff environmental deadline for bidding in Round 4 of At a summit in May 2022, the permit wind energy plants, such as
scrutiny from the federal the CfD auction. Netherlands was one of four North 3 years for offshore wind projects,
government, developer Energy Sea countries, alongside Germany, with additional discretionary time
Management Inc (EMI) pulled the Tackling the bottlenecks Belgium and Denmark, to commit to allowance under extraordinary
plug in 2017 after more than 20 The Danish Energy Agency accelerating the buildout of offshore circumstances.
lawsuits. introduced a “one-stop shop” wind to achieve 65 GW of installed
capacity by 2030 and 150GW by O Digitised, searchable and up-to-
https://www.government.nl/topics/renewable-energy/offshore-wind-energy 2050. The pledge was prompted in date databases for siting of
26 GWEC.NET
Part Two: Policy
projects, including an inventory of O Where local opposition and for a modification to the original
local ordinances and records of NIMBYism is particularly project design.
where energy projects have met challenging, policymakers can
community resistance, which can consider encouraging community The increasingly large amounts of
support local authorities with benefit schemes attached to energy that offshore wind projects
zoning for projects. renewables projects to improve generate will need to be delivered to
public support. robust transmission networks. Grid
O Dedicated centralised authorities upgrades are also burdened by slow
and single focal points who can O A clearing house mechanism for bureaucratic procedures, dependent
work with offshore wind legal disputes to prevent extended as they are on significant capital
developers to streamline the siting delays to critical infrastructure investment and community consent.
and permitting process. projects, and a structured and Even in markets where project
time-limited process for development has been fast-tracked,
O More staff and digital resources for developers to provide evidence. for example in China, grid
the various authorities which make constraints have caused connection
decisions during the permitting Making offshore wind the option delays.
process of an offshore wind of choice
project. While investors have shown an Planning for a massive increase in
insatiable appetite for offshore wind, offshore wind installations requires
O Transparent land and ocean use the gap between ambition and several crucial and efficient steps,
guidance, aligned at the national reality appears to be widening. from land allocation to building
and sub-national levels, which Without streamlined procedures that permits to grid connections. While
prioritises DNSH, green grant permits through centralised different markets will choose
economy and nature-positive systems and help developers different approaches, it is clear that a
initiatives, and even identifies navigate approval procedures, more coordinated permitting
areas suitable for wind projects offshore wind projects risk losing out strategy is essential to ensure the
where planning could be fast- to other investment opportunities success of offshore wind deployment
tracked. that are less exposed to the vagaries everywhere.
of multi-layered decisions by
O Active dialogue between different institutions.
communities and industry
throughout the lifecycle of a wind Excessively lengthy permitting
project, particularly in processes can also result in outdated
developing economies where equipment being used on a project,
energy justice and energy given the fast pace of technological
sovereignty are emerging advances and the risk of further
narratives. delaying construction by applying
27
PART THREE: SUSTAINABILITY
OF THE INDUSTRY
Chapter Sponsor
28
Part Three: Sustainability of the Industry
30 GWEC.NET
Part Three: Sustainability of the Industry
Case Study: Three key materials installation costs, it can account for almost 17% of the
MV/HV/EHV subsea cable consumption in
challenges as offshore wind grows total project cost of an offshore wind farm. This is due
offshore wind applications
Provided by: CRU to the extensive usage of high-value subsea export
Cumulative ‘000 core-km and CAGR 2022-2027
and array cables and the sophisticated cable-laying
52.1
Rapid growth in offshore wind capacity offers a strong works required by specialist vessels. CRU forecasts 78
demand opportunity for metals producers. But it also global subsea cable demand in offshore wind
48
presents large challenges for the whole industry supply applications will grow by at least 17% CAGR 15.1
20.8
Renewables need decarbonised cable producers to meet such exceptional demand. Core length cable CAGR (2022-2027)
/0 1
/0 1
/0 1
/0 1
/0 1
/0 1
/0 1
/0 1
/1 1
/1 1
/1 1
/0 1
/0 2
/0 2
/0 2
/0 2
22
06 1/2
06 2/2
06 3/2
06 4/2
06 5/2
06 6/2
06 7/2
06 8/2
06 9/2
06 0/2
06 1/2
06 2/2
06 1/2
06 2/2
06 3/2
06 4/2
Assuming the above challenges can be resolved
5/
/0
06
Companies developing offshore wind projects are there remains an important question of how to
targeting net zero Scope 3 emissions. Low-CO2 steel manage materials price volatility. This can be
must be sourced to achieve this. But decarbonising extreme: there was a difference of more than 3 times discovered by CRU, offers a powerful such tool. It
steel production is a huge task, requiring massive between the minimum and maximum steel plate removes market timing risk, creates a fair distribution
capital expenditure, process flowsheet change and price in Germany since January 2021. A 100,000t of value between seller and buyer, and allows
sufficient supply of energy and raw materials. The order placed at the highest price would have cost commercial discussions to focus away from the
market opportunity exists but can it incentivise all of €125M more than if it was placed at the lowest price. fraught area of price and instead on other value-
these to occur? adding areas of the supply partnership.
Purchasing teams in offshore wind therefore either
Are enough materials available? have a huge challenge of market timing, or they need Find out more here:
The question of materials supply to offshore wind has to be equipped with risk management tools. https://www.crugroup.com/
particular resonance in wire and cable. Including Indexing their purchases to steel prices, like those
up of REEs for direct drive offshore domestic supply chain for REEs and future, as rare earth elements
turbines.2 other important minerals in battery- become scarcer, high-temperature
making such as cobalt and lithium. superconductors could be used in
By 2030, demand for REEs in the offshore wind direct-drive turbines.
wind industry is likely to double from Japan, a country with one of the This new technological development
today’s number. world’s most ambitious offshore wind would not only cut reliance on REEs
targets, was forced to take measures but would also enhance
This higher demand leads to two key to secure its own supply of REEs performance due to an overall
considerations: addressing the following an embargo from China. decrease in weight. However, further
sustainability of the mining and The Japanese government’s cost reductions and technological
processing of REEs through approach to regulating their own REE progress will be necessary before
international cooperation, policy and deposits along with bilateral offtake this technology can be deployed.
regulation, and how innovation can agreements with Australian
reduce offshore wind energy’s producers is now seen as a valuable Coexisting with biodiversity
reliance on REEs. model for the US and other countries, The impact on biodiversity from
as a way of creating a more balanced offshore wind development has
Governments representing leading approach to production, supply and emerged as a crucial issue for
offshore wind markets, such as the demand for REEs. project developers, as the industry
European Union, the United States, positions itself as a responsible
China and Japan are taking proactive Above all, international cooperation custodian of the ocean. It is
steps to address the sustainability of must lead to a fair, sustainable incumbent on the offshore wind
the global supply and demand for market with long term price visibility industry to ensure the health of the
REEs. Europe has established the for buyers and demand certainty for environment is both protected and
European Raw Materials Alliance producers, given REEs’ key role in even enhanced where possible.
(ERMA), which has initially focused the energy transition. What’s more,
on REEs. In the United States, in the public and private sector In order to mitigate negative
context of President Biden’s stakeholders across the global biodiversity impacts, project
sweeping $2 trillion infrastructure offshore wind industry must work developers are investing in new
legislation, an executive order was together to ensure environmental solutions and approaches to better
signed in February 2022 designed and social concerns through the understand marine biodiversity and
to review gaps in the domestic production and processing of REEs how offshore wind can harmoniously
supply chains for REEs, medical are addressed in parallel. coexist with its natural environment.
devices, chips and other key As evidenced by the initiatives
resources. Furthermore, the Innovation also holds significant already in place, achieving an
Department of Energy announced a potential in addressing the acceptable level of coexistence
USD 30 million initiative that will tap sustainability issues associated with 2. Critical materials for the energy transition: Rare earth
into researching and securing the US the projected demand of REEs. In the elements, Technical paper 2/2022, IRENA
32 GWEC.NET
Part Three: Sustainability of the Industry
between offshore wind and marine New innovative technologies are now
life will require unprecedented available to minimise the impact of
cooperation between industry, offshore wind on marine life, to
government, NGOs and academia. better understand marine life activity
and to reduce impacts such as
Significant work is underway in underwater noise through the
current offshore wind markets in the construction phase. In the US, where
North Sea to assess the impacts of significant offshore wind is currently
existing offshore wind farms, and to in development, leading project
better plan for future ones. Across developer, Ørsted, has partnered
the North Sea, where offshore with Rutgers University, Woods Hole
development is most advanced, new Oceanographic Institution and the
initiatives such as the North Sea Gain University of Rhode Island on the
study led by the United Kingdom’s Ecosystem and Passive Acoustic
Crown Estate in partnership with the Monitoring (ECO-PAM). The goal of
Dutch-led Rich North Sea this initiative is to better understand
programme, has created a new the habitat as well as the presence,
international data collation exercise distribution and seasonality of the
bringing together seabed endangered North Atlantic right
biodiversity data from across the whale within Ørsted lease areas.
North Sea into a central data set. The Across designated offshore wind
study aims to respond to an urgent areas from the North Sea, the US and
need to improve understanding of even Taiwan, technologies such as
the biodiversity of the seabed on a the ‘bubble curtain’ are being
larger scale and ensure that employed to reduce underwater
decisions on the next generation of disturbances to marine mammals
offshore wind farms will be based on and other marine wildlife.
the most comprehensive information
and will bring biodiversity net gain. Leading industry players are also
anticipating and mitigating the
GWEC is also working closely with impacts of new technological
UN Global Compact, which is leading developments such as the next
an initiative on marine spatial planning generation of large-scale turbines
(MSP). The focus of this workstream is and floating offshore wind
to establish best practice tools and installations. Ørsted, Ocean Winds,
guidance on MSP, as well as and Vattenfall have recently joined
collaborating on research initiatives. the Sustainable Installation of XXL
34 GWEC.NET
Part Three: Sustainability of the Industry
Case Study: Innovation to Four cameras were installed on the Isle of creation of a ‘digital twin’ of the site. Using
protect and enhance natural May to pilot the use of AI for species LIDAR, Sonar, hydrophones and AI,
habitats around offshore monitoring, gathering footage and amongst other technologies, the digital
automatically detecting and counting the twin will show in real-time what is going
wind farms
birds during their breeding season. The on below the surface of the water,
Provided by: SSE Renewables
AI technology learned not to count the enabling cause and effect to be
same puffin twice in the field of view, modelled in a very transparent way.
Harnessing natural resources for meaning the method produced highly
renewable energy generation is the most accurate results. A requirement of the Dutch Government
sustainable way of mitigating the is that this data must also be open source,
dangerous effects of climate change. But The puffin monitoring project meaning that unprecedented amounts of
as these technologies roll out at scale represented the most sophisticated data will also be collected and shared
over the next decades, there is a risk that, species monitoring SSE Renewables had with the public.
without careful management, the ever undertaken. Core to its success was
transition to net zero could come at the development of the project with By conducting large-scale research into
expense of the surrounding ecosystem environmental and natural heritage the effects of wind farms on the
close to these assets. stakeholders, NatureScot. SSE surrounding ecosystems, SSE Renewables
Renewables has now gone on to use the believes these ground-breaking projects
That’s why SSE Renewables, which is technology for counting salmon at its with Microsoft and Avanade will facilitate
currently constructing more than 4GW of hydro stations, with plans to use the research and collaboration.
offshore wind, have teamed up with technology at more sites.
technology leaders Microsoft and These innovations enable learning in
Avanade on a series of digital innovation SSE Renewables, Microsoft and Avanade real-time on how to limit and avoid
projects which could change the way have gone on to work together to negative impacts, while promoting the
renewable energy is developed, establish what could be the world’s largest positive ones and offering incredible
constructed and operated. digital research project of its kind: SSE opportunities to support the protection
Renewables’ tender application for the and enhancement of natural habitats.
Through the partnership, the companies Hollandse Kust (West) project includes a
have implemented a species monitoring focus on how innovation can assist the Find out more here: https://www.sse.com/
technique using artificial intelligence rollout of offshore wind farms to meet the news-and-views/2021/09/bird-s-eye-view-
(AI). As part of a planning condition for its Dutch Government’s ambitious targets. sse-partners-with-microsoft-avanade-and-
operational Beatrice offshore wind farm naturescot-for-cutting-edge-puffin-
off the northeast coast of Scotland, SSE The consortium plans to understand the monitoring-pilot/
Renewables is required to monitor local impacts of the wind farm on the
puffin colonies. surrounding ecosystem through the
3. United Nations Global Compact, The Ocean-climate Nexus: A Blueprint for a Climate-Smart Ocean to Meet 1.5°C, p. 13
(2021), available at https://ungc-communications-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/publications/_Blueprint%20for%20a%20
Climate-Smart%20Ocean%20to%20Meet%201.5%C2%B0C.pdf.
4. High Level Panel, Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change
5. For an example in France, see “France’s offshore renewable strategy faces pushback from fishermen”; and in South
Korea, see “Fishermen threaten South Korea climate plans”.
6. Blue Acceleration, SRC
Source: “The Blue Acceleration: The Trajectory of Human Expansion into the Ocean,” Jouffray et al., Perspective, January 2020. 7. In the European Union, the North Sea Plan cut the cost of offshore wind permits in the Netherlands by two-thirds
36 GWEC.NET
Part Three: Sustainability of the Industry
climate-smart approach, it can be an Data Collected Methods Types of data MSP uses
opportunity to build climate literacy Metocean Meteorological masts/LIDAR Wind speed and direction High; coastal risk assessments
and ensure a just transition through Acoustic Wave and Current Metres Wave and current data
building social and community Directional Waverider Buoys Wave height and direction
acceptance for net zero policies. In Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers Tidal speed and direction
addition, decision support tools are Geophysical Bathymetry Seabed bathymetry and texture; High; suitable ground conditions
already being used by planners to morphological features; shallow geology;
Side-scan sonar seabed habitats; archaeology; potential
assess the socioeconomic impacts of
Magnetometer unexploded ordnance
planning measures, including siting
Seismic
of offshore wind farms, thereby
seeking to maximise societal Geotechnical Boreholes Site geology; archaeology Low: not needed
that the placement of offshore wind Marine Mammals Aerial surveys and/or acoustic monitoring Marine mammal species densities High; biodiversity targets; generating
sensitivity maps
does no harm to ocean ecosystems, Boat-based surveys
bringing together project planners, Birds Aerial surveys Bird species densities
industry and conservation Shipping and Fishing AIS Information Shipping and fishing types and densities
organisations has also proven Site-specific radar surveys Live monitoring during construction
beneficial for identifying important
Source: UN Global Compact (2021) Roadmap to Integrate Offshore Renewables into Climate-Smart Marine Spatial Planning. With inputs from Scottish Power Renewables and Vattenfall.
areas for future research, as well as
opportunities for synergies with
nature. For example, nature- of an MSP process, facilitated by be an opportunity for active synergy role of governments in mitigating
inclusive design such as smart authorities, have proven exploration, for example through risk, cross-industrial collaboration
offshore wind foundations and scour successful.11 ocean multi-use. Offshore wind can has also been identified as a key
protection serving as an artificial foreseeably be co-located with other enabler for multi-use.14
reef, can boost local biodiversity The same applies for ocean users. marine industries, such as tourism
and support local fish stocks.10 In While MSP has been praised as a (e.g., boat tours), low-trophic The offshore wind industry can also
these examples, informal process to reduce and resolve aquaculture or certain types of support more climate-smart MSP.
engagement opportunities outside conflicts and build trust,12 it can also passive fisheries.13 Alongside the The industry can provide evidence
to enable MSP authorities to develop
8. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331683126_Spatial_Economic_Benefit_Analysis_Facing_integration_challenges_in_maritime_spatial_planning well-informed plans by providing
9. Orsted/Iberdrola case studies.
10. Dutch community of practice non-commercially sensitive data
11. For example, studies have shown that fishers are significantly more likely to support a plan if they believed the consultation of the plan was adequate (Blau and Green (2015) assets. High-quality, real-time data is
12. Angela Schultz-Zehden and others, Ocean Multi-Use Action Plan (Edinburgh, 2018), available at https://www.submariner-network.eu/images/news/MUSES_Multi-Use_Action_Plan.pdf.
13. Stuvier et al (2020) Stakeholder Involvement in Technological Design: Lessons Learned from the MERMAID and TROPOS Projects. collected at operational sites and is
14. Stuvier et al (2020) Stakeholder Involvement in Technological Design: Lessons Learned from the MERMAID and TROPOS Projects. already being shared through
38 GWEC.NET
PART FOUR: TECHNOLOGY
40 GWEC.NET
Part Four: Technology
Today, PM motor technology (both interior Thanks to four quadrant control modes and
permanent magnet, or IPM, and surface the capability of being controlled with full
permanent magnet, or SPM) represents a torque at zero speed, normal dynamic
key factor for the current and next braking is exclusively electric (then
generation of wind turbines. The clear potentially regenerated). This relegates the
advantages brought by PM to manufacturers mechanical brake to the function of Static
and to power producers include: ease of Holding Brake or Emergency Brake, and
installation, energy efficiency, improved potentially removes the hassles related to
energy harvesting and lower maintenance. mechanical brake maintenance.
42 GWEC.NET
Part Four: Technology
15
Traditional Fast Speed Direct Drive
14 Medium Speed Floating Turbine
Solid line: the installation has been completed
13 Dashed line: new product was released but the prototype is not installed yet
12
11
10
7
MW
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
44 GWEC.NET
Part Four: Technology
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
7
MW
3
Traditional Fast Speed Direct Drive
2
Medium Speed Floating Turbine
Solid line: the installation has been completed
1 Dashed line: new product was released but the prototype is not installed yet
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
46 GWEC.NET
Part Four: Technology
Case study: How do you avoid overpressure with dry air to block the salt
connector corrosion in offshore wind corrosion process on the metallic surfaces.
turbines? Additionally, the surface coating is widely
Provided by: HARTING applied for the metallic subsystems and
components, such as generators, converters,
motors and cabinets.
Offshore wind turbines are exposed to harsh
environmental conditions such as high humidity Connectors have become an indispensable
and corrosive salt throughout their lifetime. element of the modern wind industry. They
Although there are no statistics available for the speed up the assembly and disassembly of
offshore wind industry, the economic losses due individual components, encourage modular
to corrosion in industrialised countries can designs, and thus significantly reduce costs over
represent up to 6% of the gross national the entire service life. The metallic connector
product1. Therefore, a complete corrosion hoods and housings from HARTING and many
protection of the turbines’ metallic surfaces other suppliers are generally made of
must function optimally over their planned aluminium using a die-casting process to
operational life of 25 years or more to keep the ensure a very demanding electromagnetic
Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) from offshore casting (EMC) functionality and to provide
wind under control. robust mechanical strength. However, precise
guidelines for corrosion protection of
Many corrosion protection methods have been connectors in the wind turbine are not provided
adopted for the offshore wind industry. For the in current industry standards.
external surfaces of the foundations under and
near sea water, the corrosion protection is HARTING recently issued a white paper that
prescribed in current industry guidelines based takes a closer look at the use of connectors and
on experiences from the oil and gas industry. the issue of corrosion. Possible types of
Cathodic protection (CP) of offshore structures corrosion and the resulting problems and
with galvanic anodes is a well-established requirements for connectors are also
corrosion prevention technique2. Inside the considered. Finally, different strategies are
nacelle and tower, the active desalter and discussed for minimising the risks of corrosion
dehumidifier create a relatively constant and ensuring corrosion protection that lasts for
the entire service life of the connector.
1. Corrosion: a challenge for materials science, Crespy, Daniel; Landfester,
Katharina, Yearly Book of Max-Planck-Gesellschaft 2014/2015.
2. Corrosion Risks and Mitigation Strategies for Offshore Wind Turbine
Find out more: https://www.harting.com/UK/
Foundations, Kathy Riggs Larsen, Materials Performance, 05.04.2021 en-gb/markets/wind-energy
48 GWEC.NET
Part Four: Technology
hydrogen production is solar and onshore wind – especially But whether green hydrogen can
predominantly coal-based, China in the geographies where these two ultimately play the wide-ranging role
has more than 30 green hydrogen energy sources are widely available. that its proponents envisage is still
projects in the works. The current uncertain, especially as renewable
Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) lists At an estimated cost of around $1/kg electrification and storage
hydrogen as one of China’s six by 2050, green hydrogen is on the technologies continue to advance.
industries of the future, and a path to becoming cost-competitive
number of provinces and cities have with grey or blue hydrogen.2 This is As renewable electricity and
launched hydrogen strategies. especially the case in light of shifting electrolyser costs fall and availability
price dynamics around high-cost rises, green hydrogen could easily
India launched its National Hydrogen gas generation. BloombergNEF has replace grey hydrogen in refineries
Mission in August 2021, with the found that, in the aftermath of and for producing ammonia and
ambition of becoming “a global hub Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost methanol. It could also be used to
for green hydrogen production and differential between grey and green produce chemicals and manufacture
export”. The government is hydrogen has already reached the steel, with pilot projects already
considering making it mandatory for tipping point. The levelised cost of happening in Germany’s Saxony-
refineries and fertiliser plants to use grey hydrogen from fossil gas stands Anhalt “chemical triangle” region
some green hydrogen. India is also at $6.71/kg in the EMEA region, and in Australia, where steelmaker
the world’s largest ammonia while green hydrogen produced BlueScope aims to work with the
importer, a key input for fertiliser using European electrolysers costs Commonwealth Scientific and
production. $4.84-6.68/kg. In China, green Industrial Research Organisation
hydrogen is priced at $3.22/kg, (CSIRO) to replace coal with coke
Assessing the competitiveness of against $5.28/kg for grey hydrogen. oven gas, which contains 60%
green hydrogen hydrogen, subsequently adding
Some experts argue that generating IRENA has calculated that, driven by green hydrogen.
green hydrogen from surplus R&D and economies of scale in
renewable energy does not make manufacturing facilities, electrolysers The case for powering heat pumps
sense in a highly connected, could become 40% cheaper by appears weaker, considering how
continent-scale energy system. 2030, making green hydrogen expensive carbon would have to be
While offshore wind is highly cost-competitive with blue hydrogen in order to make green hydrogen
compatible with green hydrogen by the same date. By 2050, the IEA’s competitive with natural gas or
production, it may be unable to Net Zero 2050 roadmap suggests green electricity.
compete on cost with production that hydrogen production will be
based on a combination of cheaper almost entirely based on low-carbon In the transport sector, the use of
technologies, with green hydrogen hydrogen in passenger road
2. https://about.bnef.com/blog/hydrogen-economy-offers- accounting for two thirds of global vehicles is unlikely, given cost-
promising-path-to-decarbonization/ production. competitiveness and convenience
considerations, but the prospects are Supply Chain), however, could Whatever the pace of green
rosier for long-distance shipping and disrupt a trend of falling costs and hydrogen expansion, offshore wind
aviation, where electrification is slow down growth of green will be a major source of power for
unlikely to provide all the answers. hydrogen. Low electricity prices are it. For instance, following the North
essential for producing competitive Sea Summit in May, Danish
At the power system level, it has green hydrogen. developer Copenhagen
been argued that green hydrogen, Infrastructure Partners (CIP) shared
stored at strategic locations and Scaling green hydrogen on the plans to build an artificial “hydrogen
moved around as needed, could global level island” in the Danish North Sea.
provide resilience when up to 90% of Countries with the potential to Electricity from 10 GW of offshore
generation comes from variable generate large amounts of low-cost wind capacity would power
renewable energy sources. renewable energy are prime electrolysers to produce nearly 1
candidates for becoming producers million tonnes of green hydrogen
According to the IEA, global of green hydrogen, especially if they annually for export to neighbouring
electrolyser capacity stood at 0.3 also have access to water and the northern European countries via 275
GW in 2020, mostly using grid capability to export to large demand kilometres of pipelines.
electricity to produce hydrogen. The centres.
agency estimates electrolyser It is no surprise that intense
capacity to reach almost 17 GW by Several countries with widely international collaboration is ongoing
2026, based on an announced differing locations and conditions to both advance technological
pipeline of 260 GW globally. Almost could become leaders in the green developments and support
half of the planned expansion is hydrogen production race. Scotland, hydrogen production in countries
expected to use existing renewable for example, with its vast offshore with significant renewable energy
capacity, with most announced wind resources and existing oil and generation opportunities. More than
projects ranging from 1 MW to 10 gas infrastructure, is well placed to 30 countries already have hydrogen
MW in size and being located close play a major role. On the other side strategies that include import or
to industrial sites and ports. of the globe, Australia has immense export plans, according to IRENA,
potential for cheap wind and solar and cross-border hydrogen trade
Larger projects of 10-100 MW are generation. With a more favourable looks set to grow considerably in the
expected to rely on some 18 GW of political outlook for net zero policies coming years.
additional renewable capacity than it has enjoyed for decades, it
during 2021-26, most of which could could gain a prime position. Several But whether the technical potential to
come from China, Chile, Spain and countries in Africa and the Middle produce hydrogen at export scale
Australia. East, such as Egypt and the UAE, can be realised will also depend on
are exploring opportunities factors like government support, the
Supply chain pressures in the to become hydrogen investment climate and political
renewables sector (see Part One: exporters. stability.
50 GWEC.NET
Part Four: Technology
52 GWEC.NET
MARKET STATUS 2021
53
Market Status 2021
Annual installations 17 GW of new capacity O With 3.3 GW of offshore wind offshore wind last year, making it
2021 saw 21.1 GW offshore wind connected in 2021. This capacity added in 2021, Europe the largest European offshore
become grid connected worldwide, astounding level of growth was accounted for the majority of the wind market in 2021, followed by
setting a new record in the offshore driven by the expiry of Feed-in- remaining new installed capacity. Denmark (608 MW) and the
wind industry. Tariffs (FiTs) for offshore wind at Netherlands (392 MW).
the end of 2021 - the same O With projects awarded in the
O China led the world in annual policy shifts that created a huge Contracts for Difference (CfD) O No offshore wind turbines were
offshore wind installations for the rush in onshore wind Round 2 in 2017 coming online, installed in Germany during 2021,
fourth year in a row with nearly installations in 2020. the UK installed 2.3 GW of new although there was one small
21106
Europe
China 3317
Rest of world
CAGR*
+36%
16900
6243 6852
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
54 GWEC.NET
Market Status 2021
offshore wind project under O Taiwan was due to commission cumulative global offshore wind
construction. The slow-down was more than 1 GW of offshore wind installations, 18% lower than the
primarily caused by previously capacity from three projects last previous year. The sharp drop of
unfavourable market conditions year based on the project COD its market share is primarily due to
and a low level of ready-to-build plans, but only the 109 MW the remarkable growth of the
offshore wind projects in the Changhua demonstration project offshore sectors in China and
pipeline. came online. The delays are Vietnam in 2021.
primarily caused by COVID-19
O In 2021 Norway commissioned related disruptions. O As the world’s second largest
the 3.6 MW TetraSpar floating regional market, Asia is trailing
foundation demonstration project O The United States is the only behind Europe by less than 1% in
at the Metcenter Test site. market with an offshore wind cumulative installations. China is
Together with the five units of 9.5 project in operation in the the largest market in the region,
MW floating wind turbines Americas, but no offshore projects followed by Vietnam, Taiwan, South
connected at the Kincardine were built in 2021. Korea and Japan.
floating wind farm in Scotland
and the one 5.5 MW floating Cumulative installations O Outside Europe and Asia, North
prototype unit installed at the The global offshore market grew on America has 42 MW offshore wind
Yangxi Shapa III offshore wind average by 36% per year in the past in operation as of the end of last
farm in China, a total of 57 MW of decade, bringing total installations to year from the Block Island wind
floating wind capacity was 56 GW, which accounted for nearly farm located in the US.
commissioned in 2021. 7% of total global wind capacity as
the end of 2021.
O Outside of China and Europe, two
other countries recorded new O In total installations, the top spot
offshore wind installations in 2021: has been held by the UK since
Vietnam (779 MW, intertidal only) 2009, but as GWEC predicted, Floating wind
and Taiwan (109 MW). China took over the leading
O 57.1 MW of floating wind was O As of 2021, a total of 121.4 MW
position by the end of 2021. The
O Driven by the 1st of November FiT other markets in the global installed in 2021, of which 48 MW of net floating wind is installed
deadline, 20 intertidal projects in top-five are: Germany, the was in the UK, 5.5 MW in China globally, of which 78 MW is
Vietnam fully or partially reached Netherlands and Denmark. and 3.6 MW in Norway. located in the UK, 25 MW in
their commercial operation dates Portugal, 5.9 in Norway, 5.5 MW
O Two floaters were
(COD) last year according to EVN O Europe remains the largest in China, 5 MW in Japan and 2
decommissioned last year. One
(Vietnam Electricity), making it the offshore wind regional market as MW in France.
unit, of 5 MW, in Japan and
third largest market in new of the end of 2021. The region was another, of 2 MW, in the UK.
installations in 2021. responsible for 50.4% of total
New offshore wind installations by market Total offshore wind installations by market
New offshore wind installations by region Total offshore wind installations by region
North America 0.1%
Europe 16%
56 GWEC.NET
MARKETS TO WATCH
58 GWEC.NET
Markets to Watch
Ikh`k^llbhgh_MZbpZglpbg]ikh\nk^f^gmf^\aZgblfl
+6 GW
+9 GW
128 MW +5 GW
60 GWEC.NET
Markets
Markets
to watch
to Watch
2021
Market outlook for cumulative installed offshore wind capacity in Taiwan (MW) held later in 2022, the auction for
2027-2028 capacity (“Phase 1-2”)
15000 will be held in 2023 and that for
2030-2031 (“Phase 1- 3”) in 2024.
14,308
Critical to the steady progression of
12000 12,808
the market will be the government’s
localisation strategy, which aims to
11,308
consolidate the entire supply chain
in Taiwan, from turbine components
9000 9,808 to submarine cables to shipbuilding.
The industry must balance growth
8,308
with local content requirements.
6000 5,308
In the Round 3 documents, the
Industrial Development Bureau (IDB)
3,344 has specified a total of 26 items as
2,702 “key development items”. A bidder
3000 1,610
will have to commit to procure
237
locally all these key development
128 items for at least 60% of its proposed
0 capacity. There will also be
2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e opportunities to go beyond the 60%
and receive additional points in the
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2022 scoring system. Despite these
changes, the requirements in the
generate 20% of electricity through Round 3) will likely be conducted in May 2022 with the final rules Round 3 rules are still very
renewable energy by 2025 (which across two phases; the first phase expected by mid-year. challenging.
the government is now saying will (2026-2031) will prioritise projects at
likely happen in 2026 or 2027). In water depth of less than 50 metres. The MOEA is aiming to allocate Apart from the strict Local Content
May 2021 the government 1.5GW of offshore wind Requirement (LCR), the
announced that it would increase its Following government delays due to development each year from 2026 to Government is also introducing two
offshore wind ambitions to 15 GW COVID-19, a draft version of the 2031 for a total of 9 GW. Round 3 factors: a price ceiling and a project
over the 2026-2035 period. While Round 3 framework, including how Phase 1 capacity will be allocated cap. The Government is introducing
the original 5.7 GW tranche was much volume will be allocated and through three (3) auctions. The a price ceiling in the auction at the
procured across a selection round when, was published by The auction of 3GW for 2026-2027 1. Avoidance cost is the average price of coal fired power
and auction, the next 15 GW (termed Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) (“Phase 1-1”) is scheduled to be for Taipower.
62 GWEC.NET
Markets to Watch
required policy clarity, cost O Under the MoU between India and even avoid this legacy challenge.
reduction strategy, and offshore Denmark, a knowledge hub called
wind roadmap. the Centre of Excellence for The MNRE could exploit India’s
Offshore Wind and Renewable massive offshore wind potential in
Important aspects to outline include: Energy (CoE) was launched in the medium to long-term to
socioeconomic awareness among September 2021 for the adoption strengthen efforts for climate
indigenous/fishing communities; of a comprehensive and coherent resilience and energy security.
developing a robust MSP framework; approach leading to cost-effective Learnings from countries in Europe
building out port and grid offshore wind power, with a view to showcase the promising role of
infrastructure; ensuring vessel mobilising significant investment. offshore wind towards supporting
availability; and offshore wind- An initial report in May 2022 India’s National Green Hydrogen
tailored regulation and standards. estimated the lowest possible mission, clean power demand from
Timely approval of permits and LCOE by 2025 and 2030 could be the commercial and industrial
allocation of clearances, power in the range of 11.2-7.4 INR/kWh segment and energy exports.
evacuation and transmission and 7.8-5.2 INR/kWh, respectively.4
infrastructure commissioning and Enabling offshore wind policies will
adherence to PPA signing timelines The Indian public sector thus be pivotal for driving investor
will also be required to ensure an undertakings (PSUs) have also been participation and project risk
expedient installation timeline. encouraged by the government to Germany-based RWE Renewables mitigation. A long-term non-solar
scale up their renewable energy and utility Tata Power Renewable RPO trajectory specific to offshore
Through strategic alliances and portfolio by participating in the Energy have signed a MoU to jointly wind and a production-linked
institutional partnerships, the forthcoming offshore wind bids. This develop offshore wind projects. incentives scheme for domestic
Governmentt of India is already has opened a door for win-win offshore wind manufacturing could
strengthening its existing expertise partnerships between international Offshore wind is critical to net support a thriving offshore wind
of offshore wind: offshore wind players and PSUs. zero by 2070 goal industry in the country. Alongside
Meeting India’s net zero target other renewable energy
O Renewable Energy Catapult and In recent years, oil and gas company requires a massive push for technologies, offshore wind must be
NIWE have announced a Joint ONGC and the National Thermal decarbonisation and renewable provided “deemed generation”
Declaration of Intent (JDI) to Power Corporation (and largest energy capacity. This will support status.
establish a 5-year collaboration power generator utility NTPC) have the transition from fossil fuels to
programme to support the UK and entered into a Memorandum of clean energy as well as meet Furthermore, a growing pool of
India’s offshore wind industry.3 Understanding (MoU) to explore evolving power demands. While innovative financing mechanisms
offshore wind opportunities. utility-scale renewable energy such as blended finance and Green/
technologies such as wind and solar Masala Bonds for the initial phase of
3. https://www.ukri.org/news/ukri-india-announces-new-initiatives-during-uk-pms-visit-to-india/ face land allocation delays for offshore wind market development
4. These revised estimates are based on recent market changes compared to the 2021 FIMOI report version-1. See:
https://coe-osw.org/first-indian-technology-catalogue-with-offshore-wind-data/. project development, offshore wind could be leveraged to support early
5. Global Wind Report 2022, GWEC has an opportunity to mitigate or project financing.
64 GWEC.NET
Markets to Watch
66 GWEC.NET
Markets to Watch
Since the ambitious 30 GW by 2023 energy potential. This has been Following the Carolina Long Bay
offshore wind target was released by paired with fast paced leasing lease, completed by BOEM in May, a
the Biden–Harris Administration, auctions in a bid to align output with now clear schedule for the
there has been a noticeably positive ambition. Californian offshore wind market will
attitude towards pushing the rollout see the leasing of 373,268 acres of
of offshore wind on the political The collaborative efforts by BOEM seabed in federal waters of the
agenda. Although no new offshore and a flood of developers in the New Humboldt Call and Morro Bay Call
wind turbines were installed in the York Bight leasing round led to this areas. This boasts a potential of 4.5
US in 2022, the US offshore wind being the largest ever offshore wind GW of installed wind power
market continues to gain strong industry auction in US history. With generation. This auction, which
momentum in both state and federal the proposal being made in January follows the Call for Information and
waters. 2022, and the auction being held in Nominations for offshore wind areas
February 2022, there was a in California in 2018, is planned to
Raised action at federal level shortened timeline which saw this take place in Q4 of 2022 and will be
The Bureau of Ocean Energy auction closed in Q1 of 2022. This the first US project to award offshore
Management (BOEM) is the US leasing round saw the auction of floating wind. BOEM is expected to
organisation that manages and is circa 448,000 acres of seabed off the publish a Proposed Sale Notice in
responsible for the offshore wind coast of New York up to New Jersey Q3 of 2022 that will allow for a public
market in federal waters. Since the allocating 5.6 GW of offshore wind consultation, welcoming comments
issue of the Outer Continental Shelf capacity to six bidders. With a on the details about the two
(OCS) Renewable Energy Program, record USD 4.37 billion being proposed lease areas.2
which made the production and generated in revenue, the auction set
transmission of renewable energy new records. Looking ahead to what can be
sources like offshore wind much expected from the US and the efforts
easier to procure, BOEM has issued Coming in second to this auction of BOEM, the pathway shown in
25 commercial and 10 competitive was the announcement of the wind figure 1 indicates that the next area
offshore wind energy leases in the energy auction in Carolina Long Bay for offshore wind growth is due to be
Atlantic Ocean, ranging from which saw the auction of two leasing the Gulf of Mexico. BOEM has issued
Massachusetts to North Carolina. To areas off the coast of North and a Call for Information and
position the domestic offshore wind South Carolina. At full capacity this Nominations to assess the
industry to meet the 2030 target, region has the potential to produce commercial interest and viability in
BOEM has been extremely active in an output of 1.3 GW of offshore wind this region. In light of this, BOEM is
the past 12 months, working to energy which could power 500,000 scheduled to issue a draft
identify areas of unexplored wind homes. The two winning developers Environmental Assessment for the
Gulf of Mexico
project and US Wind’s wind project
Wind Energy Area Designation Planning and Analysis
offshore Maryland. The end of last
Estimated Time Range Leasing Process year also saw the announcement of
the Record of Decision (ROD) by
Present 2022 2023 2024 20
BOEM for the South Fork Wind
NY Bight project. Similar to the Vineyard wind
COMPLETE Q1 2022
project, this project is due to come
Carolina Long Bay
online delivering power to New York
COMPLETE MAY 2022
Gulf of Mexico
LATE 2021 LATE 2022
Growing ambition including
Central Atlantic floating at state level
MID 2022 Q2 2023
At the state level the US has
Oregon experienced a rise in declared
Q3 2022 Q3 2023
Gulf of Maine
ambition, with this year’s standout
2023 2024 announcement of an additional 3 GW
of offshore floating wind installations
Source: BOEM
by 2030 by the California Energy
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Markets to Watch
Commission (CEC). Floating wind is After taking into consideration the Expected annual offshore wind installation by state, 2022-2029 (MW)
establishing its place in the offshore progress made at state level, the total
wind industry as a solution to exploit announced offshore wind
the vast wind potential being offered procurement targets are now 49.5 5000
by sites with deeper waters. This GW. This is a 28.6% increase in state
new technology is enabling even level commitments from the previous 4000
greater ambition than ever before. In year where the target was positioned
addition to the target in California, a at 38.5GW. If these targets are met 3000
new bill outlining a plan to develop 3 this will propel the US to be able to
GW of floating offshore wind make significant changes in global
2000
capacity in Oregon by 2030 has emission contributions.
been introduced in the state’s House
1000
of Representatives. If enacted, the bill Strong market growth expected
will enable planning the from 2025 onwards
development of 3 GW of commercial According to the GWEC Market 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
scale floating wind projects within Intelligence global offshore wind
federal waters off Oregon’s coast by database as of June 2022, the US Maine Ohio Delaware Maryland
2030. offshore wind pipeline total has Rhode Island New Jersey Connecticut North Carolina
reached 40 GW for both federal and Massachusetts New York Virginia
Louisiana also announced a 5GW state waters. This includes 21
target of installed offshore wind offshore wind projects which have Note: This forecast is solely based on projects with commission date announced. For the entire 10-year forecast (2022-2031), please see
capacity by the year 2035, making secured offtake or won state Page 94 in Market Outlook section. Source:GWEC Market intelligence, June 2022
this the states first ever policy based solicitations and announced an
Climate Action Plan. This plan anticipated year of operation. assets, planned to be built in online in 2024 and 2025. The
details around eighty four actions Developers expect a total of 18 GW 2023-2029, are controlled by primary reason for this is the change
that must be conducted to enable of offshore wind to be online European developers including of project commission date for some
socioeconomic growth in the state. between 2023 and 2029 (see figure Ørsted, Avangrid Renewables (a projects. Additionally, in GWEC’s
3). Of the 18 GW of offshore wind subsidiary of Spain’s Iberdrola), updated US offshore outlook we
Massachusetts also passed an capacity, 23.4% is likely to be built in EDPR, Ocean Wind and CIP as well included two projects that won the
increased offshore wind target of New York, followed by New Jersey as oil and gas companies like second offshore wind solicitations in
5.6GW by 2027 at state level in late (20.5%), Massachusetts (17.7%), Equinor, BP and Shell. Maryland and another two that won
Q1 of 2022, which is the second time Virginia (14.4 %) and Maryland the third solicitations in
that the state raised its offshore wind (11.2%), making these the top 5 Compared to GWEC’s US offshore Massachusetts at the end of 2021. As
target. So far the state has procured offshore wind states in expected new wind outlook in last year’s Global a result, GWEC Market Intelligence
3.2GW of installed offshore wind installations. With regards to project Offshore Wind Report, adjustments believes that the strong offshore
capacity and so the trajectory is ownership, the situation is the same have been made for the commission wind growth is likely to take place
positive and within reach. as last year and the majority of date for projects expected to come from 2025 instead of 2024.
As of June 2022, offshore developers project-based approach. The market is, however,
have selected or announced experiencing raised private sector
preferred turbine suppliers for ten Local supply chain – efforts to work around these
offshore projects. Thanks to Balance of plant restrictions including the joint
Dominion Energy’s 2,640 MW The US embarked on the venture by Equinor and BP to
project off the coast of Virginia, construction of its first offshore wind support the Empire Wind offshore
Siemens Gamesa remains as the tower manufacturing plant as of wind farm project. Together they
largest winner with a 4,354 MW 2022, a contract awarded by the Port have awarded a long-term service
order backlog in the US. Vestas took of Albany. A US based OEM won a operation vessel (SOV) charter
over GE as the second largest USD 42.7 million contract as part of a agreement to Edison Chouest
supplier after Empire Offshore Wind joint venture with a view to Offshore (ECO), a US-based
- a joint venture between Equinor manufacturing homegrown wind company, in order to be compliant
and BP named the Danish turbine towers by late 2023. with the Jones Act. This SOV will be
manufacturer as the preferred the first in US waters to be hybrid
supplier for the 2.1 GW Empire Another component that is with capability to operate partially
Wind 1 and Empire Wind 2 offshore developing in the US supply chain is on battery power.
wind projects in New York last that of cables. At the end of last year,
October. Although, GE Renewable the UK based Prysmian Group The Danish subsidiary Maersk
Energy’s order backlog in the US is secured USD 880 million in offshore Supply Service has this year
just 1% lower than Vestas. As of today, wind cabling projects, awarded by chartered a wind turbine installation
the most popular models selected Vineyard Wind. As a result, they will vessel (WTIV), which will be used in
for US offshore wind projects are be building a cable plant in the US to the installation of the 15 MW Vestas
SGRE’s SG15-222 DD, Vestas accommodate the commission of the manufactured turbines in both
V236-15.0 MW turbines and GE’s three core cables (HVAC 275 kV) Empire one and two. This vessel is
Haliade X- 13MW DD. with XLPE insulation and single wire expected to come into operation
armouring. around 2025. Maersk mitigated
Overcoming challenges in the US concerns regarding a breach in the
supply chain Local supply chain – Vessels Jones Act by chartering this vessel as
Following the breakthroughs made The Jones Act still stands as a it is constructed with barges and tugs
on the federal and state levels, dominant bottleneck adding to the supplied and managed by Kirby
further progress has been made to lengthy timelines of project Offshore Wind, a US-based company.
address the four challenges that we rollouts in the US offshore wind
assessed last year. Authorities are market. However, the market has Infrastructure – Ports
making ample effort to take adjusted to this to deliver projects Investments in port infrastructure is a
advantage of the expertise of which are, in many cases, critical component of enabling the
Europeans companies and markets supported by European based offshore wind sector to play it’s part
to leverage wind potential in a companies. in reaching decarbonisation targets.
70 GWEC.NET
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Projects in support of Island have also been awarded O The BOEM Carolina Long Bay
accommodating the development of USD 95 million in state support to Offshore wind auction saw a new
the nations ports include: allow for upgrades to the framework being introduced
infrastructure for upcoming whereby bidders are awarded a
O The Port of Humboldt Bay has projects along the East Coast. This 20% monetary credit which must
received USD 10.5 million in dormant site will be upgraded to be committed to the support of
investment for the ports renovation enable offshore wind related workforce training programs to
in order to support the intended facilities to be developed in line enable the development of the
1.6GW of offshore wind with wind energy related business local supply chain. For this auction
development in the Humboldt call activities in the area. round the total credit awarded for
area. investment in workforce
Infrastructure – Grid development is around USD 42
O There are positive investment A State Agreement Approach (SAA) million.
signals in the growth of offshore has been approved by the Federal
wind coming from regions like Energy Regulatory Commission O The North America Building
Massachusetts where the Baker – (FERC) to implement the wind Trade Union (NABTU) and Ørsted
Politio Administration announced transmission grid solicited in New have collaborated to provide the
plans to invest USD 100 million Jersey. The SAA permits the New announcement of a Project
towards supporting offshore wind Jersey Board of Public Utilities Labour Agreement (PLA) which
ports in the state. (NJBPU) and PJM Interconnection to strives to help the US workforce
use a competitive planning process develop to accommodate the
O The Port of Albany has received for the selection of a provider of a requirements of the offshore wind
USD 29.5 million to invest in the transmission solution. The joint SAA farm supply chain.
necessary development of the received 80 proposals from utility
ports infrastructure to allow it to be companies and developers
transformed into an offshore wind indicating an appetite for finding
tower manufacturing facility. transmission solutions on the supply
side. It is anticipated that a decision
O In August 2021 the Port of Virginia on the outcome of any
leased an area of the Portsmouth recommendations or decisions will
Marine Terminal to Dominion be confirmed later this year.
Energy to aid the development of
the country’s largest offshore wind Workforce Development
project. Dedicated resources for the growth
and development of human capital is
O Port of Davisville and the South essential in enabling the offshore wind
Quay Marine Terminal in Rhode sector to reach it reach its full capacity.
Japan Comparison of Fifth & Sixth Strategic Energy Plan Energy Mix by 2030
Sixth Strategic Energy Plan Former Fifth Basic Energy Plan
(Approved in October, 2021) (prepared in 2015)
Considering Japan as an archipelago Photovoltaic 103.5 ~ 117.6 GW 64 GW
with strong wind speeds – even (129 ~146 GWh)
stronger and steadier offshore – the Wind (onshore) 17.9 GW 9.2 GW
development of offshore wind is Wind (offshore) 5.7 GW 0.8 GW
indispensable to increasing Geothermal 1.5 GW 1.4 ~ 1.6 GW
renewable energy supplies. Japan
Hydropower 50.7 GW 48.5 ~ 49.3 GW
has approximately 128 GW of
Biomass 8.0 GW 6 ~ 7 GW
fixed-bottom offshore wind potential
Electric Power to be generated 336.0 ~ 353.0 GWh 236.6 ~251.5 GWh
and 424 GW of floating offshore
wind potential.1 Despite the huge Note: 5.7 GW of offshore wind represents an expected installed capacity. The target of 10 GW by 2030 is defined as
awarded by auction projects set out by the First Vision for Offshore Wind Power Industry.
wind potential, Japan does not have Source: JWPA, Dec 2021
any large-scale commercial wind
operations but times are changing. billion ($1.8 billion), joining the list of Areas for the Development of Marine
major global companies moving Renewable Energy Power
With rising fossil fuel costs and a away from fossil fuels and expand Generation Facilities” (hereinafter
goal to achieve carbon neutrality in their low-carbon business.2 This will referred to as the “Act on Promoting
2050, the Government of Japan has mark the first big purchase of a Utilization of Sea Areas for
recognised offshore wind as a power renewables firm by a top Japanese Renewable Energy Generation”) in
source that can be introduced in oil company. Last December, the first April 2019, Japan has been steadily
large scale without putting significant commercial-scale wind farm, located working to expand offshore wind
burden on the economy and with at Noshiro, Akita, started taking power generation by creating a
significant cost reduction potential. shape as it received its turbine certification system and licensed use
Both the public and private sectors components with a goal of of designated promotional sea areas
are now looking to utilise the commencing commercial operation while maintaining harmonisation
country’s abundant offshore wind in 2022.3 with local communities.
resource and to stay self-reliant.
Making offshore wind the Building on the Act, other key policy
In November 2021, Japan’s biggest main renewable power source documents and regulations such as
refiner, Eneos Holdings, announced in Japan the Vision for Offshore Wind Power
its decision to buy Japan Renewable Since the release of the “Act on Industry (released in Dec 2020), the
Energy (JRE) for about JPY 200 Promoting the Utilization of Sea Green Growth Strategy Through
Achieving Carbon Neutrality in 2050
1. NEDO Offshore Wind Condition Map
2. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eneos-says-buy-japan-renewable-energy-177-bln-2021-10-11/
(updated and announced in June
3. https://constructionreviewonline.com/biggest-projects/the-akita-noshiro-offshore-wind-farm-project-timeline/ 2021) and the Sixth Strategic Energy
72 GWEC.NET
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Candidate Zones Japan Sea side North, Aomori Gann-u and Minami-Shiribeshi, Ishikari-city, Hokkaido
Japan Sea side South, Aomori Hokkaido Shimamaki, Hokkaido
Mutsu bay, Aomori Hiyama, Hokkaido Matsumae, Hokkaido
Happou-cho & Noshiro, Akita Mutsu bay, Aomori Kuji-cuty, Iwate
Kisakata, Akita Kisakata, Akita-city, Aware-city, Fukui
Murakami & Tainai, Niigata Akita Hibikinada Kitakyshu, Fukuoka
Enoshima Saikai-city, Nagasaki Yusa, Yamagata Karatsu-city, Saga
Murakami & Tainai,
Niigata Gann-u and Minami-Shiribeshi,
Hokkaido
Hiyama, Hokkaido
Mutsu bay, Aomori
Promising Areas Noshiro, Akita Japan Sea side North, Kisakata, Akita-city,
Yurihonjo, Akita Aomori Akita
Choshi, Chiba Japan Sea side South, Yusa, Yamagata
Aomori Murakami & Tainai,
Happou-cho & Noshiro, Niigata
Akita
Enoshima Saikai-city, Isumi-city, Chiba
Nagasaki Japan Sea Side North, Aomori
Japan Sea Side South, Aomori
Enoshima Saikai-city, Nagasaki
Areas with auction already Goto, Nagasaki Noshiro, Akita *NOTE: Happou-cho & Noshiro,
launched Yurihonjo North & South, Akita Akita Round 2 Auction schedule is
Choshi, Chiba being postponed (Previou bid
submission deadline was set to be
June 2022)
Successfully Auctioned Goto, Nagasaki - 16.8 MW Noshiro, Akita Pref - 478.8 MW
( Won by a consortium of six Yurihonjo North & South, Akita
companies led by Toda Pref - 819 MW
Corporation) Choshi, Chiba Pref - 390.6 MW
(All 3 sites on by Mitsubishi
Corporation Consortium)
Plan (approved by the Cabinet in Power Industry, based on a cost a visible offshore wind project to reach an awarded capacity of 10
Oct 2021) were updated and reduction study by GWEC and the pipeline, a cost-effective power GW by 2030 and 30-45 GW by 2040,
launched with the goal of making Japan Wind Power Association supply chain and a conducive including floating offshore wind.
offshore wind one of the main power (JWPA), was created to boost local business environment as the
sources in Japan. and international investment government set out to designate In the same period, the Green
confidence and facilitate investment 1 GW of promotional zones for Innovation Fund for Offshore Wind
The First Vision for Offshore Wind decisions. This is done by providing auction annually for the next 10 years was launched to accelerate the
next-generation technology Nominated Offshore Wind Areas at General Sea Area in Japan
development with a focus on floating
offshore wind. By October 2021, the Total 23 Areas are under nomination
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and at General Sea Area in Japan
Industry (METI) allocated JYP 119.5
billion ($940 million) for various cost 14. Ishikari, Hokkaido
reduction projects with a maximum 16. Shimamaki, Hokkaido
15. Gann-u and Minami-Shiribeshi, Hokkaido
subsidy period of 12 years (3-5 18. Matsumae, Hokkaido ONew
Most importantly, in the Sixth 7. Oga Kitakata, Akita-city, Akita Pref. Promoting Area
Strategic Energy Plan announced in 8. Yusa, Yamagata Pref. 6. Happou-cho/Noshiro-city, Akita Pref.
9. Murakami/Tainai-city Niigata Pref.
October 2021, the government
reviewed its energy policy progress 20. Kuji-city, Iwate Pref.
in the decade after the incident at 21. Awari-city, Fukui Pref.
Promising Area
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power 7. Oga Kitakata, Akita-city, Akita Pref.
Station and increased the share of 8. Yusa, Yamagata Pref.
9. Murakami & Tanai-city Niigata Pref.
renewable installed capacity by O 10. Isumi-city, Chiba Pref.
74 GWEC.NET
Markets to Watch
stakeholders involved in early-stage highlighted the lack of relevant wind Council are now working with the
site surveys, the government aims to development data, the process is wind industry to review and adjust
establish a centralised bidding likely to be accelerated. the existing auction bidding
system where it will work with local framework. The JWPA and wider wind
government during the initial stage Round 1 Auction lessons learnt industry have also submitted a
of site development to efficiently and the way forward proposal detailing various
conduct wind and other surveys and In June 2021, a consortium of six improvements necessary to improve
secure the power grid in a timely companies led by Toda Corporation the existing auction system and
manner. Improvements and updates was selected to build a 16.8 MW achieve a good balance of cost
on relevant Acts will be made by the floating wind project offshore Goto reduction, local content and meeting
government to accelerate the City, in the Nagasaki Prefecture. the target. The suggestions include
implementation of projects such as a Soon after, in December 2021, the implementation of appropriate
new scheme for the temporary right consortia led by Mitsubishi information disclosure, two-stage
to grid connection. Corporation successfully won the developer selection, more
development right for all three reasonable price and non-price point
In July 2021, three government-led, fixed-bottom offshore wind projects allocation and early introduction of a
centrally-coordinated research in Noshiro, Yurihonjo North and centralised auction system.
projects, including Gann-u and South, and Choshi with exceptionally
Minami-Shiribeshi in the Hokkaido low tariff prices of: JYP 11.99/KWh All eyes on Japan’s floating
prefecture, Sakata in the Yamagata (Euro 87.85/MWh), JYP 13.26/kWh offshore wind
prefecture and Hirono-cho in the (Euro 97.15/MWh) and JYP 16.49/ With Japan’s floating offshore wind
Iwate prefecture (floating offshore kWh (Euro 120.82/MWh) potential at more than three times its
wind) were initiated as the first batch respectively. With many developers fixed-bottom potential, this is where
of test projects under the still unclear on the precise price and the bulk of the wind resources lie.
government-led centralised system. non-price bidding points Floating offshore wind is still in the
Wind resource measurements, assessment, the Mitsubishi-led early stages of development and cost
seabed surveys, environmental consortia dominated the Round 1 remains high. It was only in 2017 that
impact assessments and local auction by bidding the cheapest the Norwegian energy major,
community surveys for these three electricity price in each project. Equinor, opened Hywind Scotland, a
projects will be completed by the 30 MW first full-scale floating offshore
government before 2025 and made The result raised concerns on wind farm. However, there is a need
ready for future auction rounds bidding procedures and led to the for the industry to accelerate the
postponement of the Round 2 auction development of floating offshore wind
A clear centralised bidding system (Happo-Noshiro zone) bidding and move beyond demonstration
scheme will be established within a application deadline which was projects, by drawing on both local
couple of years and with the recent originally set for June 2022. Japan’s and international experience and
Round 1 Auction result, which government and the Public-Private expertise.
76 GWEC.NET
Markets to Watch
complete construction or request a The RPS scheme, which mandates volumes of offshore wind in this while still encouraging technology
permission extension. The permits large state-owned and private power decade. Reinforcement needs have learning and transfer between
are numerous and include an EIA, companies to procure a portion of been highlighted around North and foreign and local companies.
occupancy implementation plan, power from renewables, makes South Jeolla and Ulsan, where
marine traffic safety examination, Renewable Energy Certificates large-scale offshore wind capacity is Looking ahead to 2030
cultural heritage survey, onshore (RECs) a common form of in development. The prospect of grid The 2030 ambitions and mega
permits for onshore facilities, remuneration for generation. RECs constraints, as well as the current projects off Shinan and Ulsan have
construction plan approval and are based on a calculation of power lack of priority for grid connections put South Korea on the map for
more. produced and straight-line distance for offshore wind, presents some global offshore wind development.
to shore, which can multiply the REC development risk. This is especially By the end of the decade, the
The Offshore Wind Collaboration value. The calculation does not the case as an EBL is not granted to country is set to emerge as the top
Plan (OWCP) issued by government consider water depth, which can be projects until KEPCO has confirmed floating offshore wind market in East
in 2020 aims to establish a “one-stop a significant factor for the economics that the project can access sufficient Asia. GWEC Market Intelligence
shop” permitting regime to shorten of projects. grid capacity. Proactive grid forecasts a total of 6.5 GW of
timelines. A Special Act to establish planning and grid operation fixed-bottom offshore wind and 3.6
this regime has not yet been passed, Although the REC weighting system innovations, including an approach GW of floating wind will be
partly due to opposition from was recently updated to reflect the using “promotional zones” for commissioned in South Korea by
commercial fishing interests. higher development costs for renewable energy to customise 2030.
offshore wind, the trading market still transmission planning, could ease
The first generation of offshore wind presents uncertainty, and a final REC the grid challenge.7 With less than eight years to go to
projects in South Korea saw long weighting is not available until meet a 12 GW target, it is critical that
lead times from 8-11 years from first construction is completed. That said, In terms of supply chain, South Korea the new administration works with
permit to COD, largely due to recent trading prices have been does have significant industrial local governments, industry and
opposition from local residents and buoyed by the increasing number of experience in steel, ship building other stakeholders to resolve the
members of the fishing industry. local companies which are and logistics, which can translate to challenges around remuneration,
Stakeholder complaints have committing to the RE100 campaign offshore engineering and supply permitting, local opposition and grid
previously led to cancellations of to procure 100% renewable energy chain competencies. But its domestic investment. This can ease the
projects, such as the 105 MW for power consumption by 2050. For wind turbine supply chain is still at barriers for offshore wind
Handong-Pyeongdae project on Jeju instance, spot prices for RECs an early stage. While advancements development in Korea and pave the
Island. New models for enhanced jumped 45% from July 2021 to in turbine technology have been way for industry to deliver on
stakeholder participation and January 2022.T As well, the RPS made, it will be important to lower national ambitions for industrial
profit-sharing are under standard has recently raised to local content and trade barriers to growth and decarbonisation.
consideration by local government, 12.5% for 2022 and will increase to allow developers to access best-in-
while demonstration projects for 25% by 2026. class technology with cost efficiency,
community socioeconomic benefit
6. https://www.mayerbrown.com/-/media/files/perspectives-events/publications/2022/03/offshore-wind-in-south-korea--
will be important to allay livelihood Grid investment is a major challenge the-path-ahead.pdf
concerns. on the horizon for enabling large 7. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a8539b34-fb1b-42cc-ba09-e08637a59bc1/KoreaElectricitySecurityReview.pdf
78 GWEC.NET
Markets to Watch
18 30
16
25
14
12 30
10
15
8
6 10
4
5
2
0 0
2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012 20132014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
offshore wind from the central turbine manufacturing hub, themselves into bases for offshore
government will be completely accounting for 60-65% of global wind farm manufacturing with
terminated. outputs of turbine nacelle and key tailor-made offshore wind ports
components including gearboxes, available. With recently invested
At GWEC’s Global Offshore Wind generators and blades. There are offshore wind turbine assembly
Summit – China 2019, large local eight established offshore wind facilities located in Zhejiang,
developers and turbine OEMs were turbine manufacturers in China as of Shandong, Liaoning and Hainan
already discussing how to address 2020, with another two OEMs Provinces coming online in the next
the bottlenecks throughout the announced to enter the offshore two years, the annual offshore wind
offshore wind supply chain, such as sector in 2021. Assembly factories turbine manufacturing capacity in
large blades, main bearings and for offshore turbines have been built China is likely to reach 20 GW from
offshore wind installation vessels, to in coastal provinces throughout the today’s 16 GW.
meet the 2021 deadline. past years.
The last two years also witnessed
A strong local supply chain to Cities such as Yangjiang how quickly Chinese local
back up growth (Guangdong Province) or Yancheng developers and offshore EPC
China is the world’s largest wind (Jiangsu Province) have made contractors mobilised installation
80 GWEC.NET
Markets to Watch
vessels to meet the 2021 grid- selected offshore bases are authorities is still available in
connection deadline. According to Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River provinces like Guangdong,
GWEC Market Intelligence’s Global Delta, Southern Fujian, Eastern Shandong and Zhejiang for the next
Offshore Wind Turbine Installation Guangdong and Beibu Gulf . 3-4 years to support the local
Vessel Database 2020, China had 24 Summing up the targets released by offshore wind industry to reach
jack-up vessels/barges and 10+ all coastal provinces in their 14th grid-parity by 2025.
heavy lift vessels for offshore wind Five-Year Plans, China will add a
turbine installation purpose. One total of 40-50 GW of offshore Although annual offshore wind
year later, 40 jack-up vessels/barges, capacity during the 2021 to 2025 installations are expected to slow
of which more than 10 were newly period. down in 2022 and 2023 after a
constructed and delivered, and 30 record year, with further technology
heavy lift vessels were identified in innovation and cost reductions, the
China. In addition, at least 10 jack-up market is likely to bounce back from
installation vessels are under
construction, of which 7 will be
China will add a total of 2024 with new installations
potentially to reach 10 GW the year
capable of installing 10MW+ 40-50 GW of offshore after. GWEC Market Intelligence
offshore wind turbines. predicts 98 GW of new offshore wind
capacity during the capacity will be built in China in
Aside from these newly built turbine 2021 to 2025 period. 2022-2031, contributing to 31% of
installation vessels, some drilling the global offshore wind additions in
platforms and semi-submersible this period.
vessels were upgraded and
converted for offshore wind
construction purposes. A handful of In addition, during this period, the
foreign vessels from Europe, Middle Chinese government plans to
East and Singapore have also been provide support on emerging
transported and leased to China to technologies and demonstration
support the final offshore wind projects, such as deep-water wind
installation rush in 2021. farms and flexible DC transmission,
digitalised O&M for offshore wind,
China in pole position for global renewable hydrogen, energy islands
offshore wind power growth and integrated energy solutions.
Looking ahead, during the current
(14th) Five-Year Period (2021-2025), From 2022, the central government
China will construct large-scale will cease subsidies for offshore
offshore bases (10 GW-level) in the wind, but a small portion of
eastern coastal areas. The five financial support from provincial
Exploring Ireland
Development stage
Colombia
Development stage
Australia
Development stage
The Philippines
Development stage
82 GWEC.NET
MARKET OUTLOOK 2022-2031
Europe
China 54850
Asia ex China CAGR*
50920 2000
84 GWEC.NET
Market Outlook 2022-2031
The UK Belgium
Germany Poland 29350
Denmark Ireland CAGR*
26500
Netherlands Norway +22.8% 5600
France Rest of Europe 23250 4800
1000
2850 1250
1000
500 1000 2000
17638 1200 1500
1500 700 2000
15048 1240 500 700
1500
1500 3000
300 1200
1200 3000
1498 3000
700 3000
CAGR*
10489 2368
700
1000
3000
+25.9% 850 1000 3000 3000
375
7380 1320 700 2000 5000
445 270 2000 4500
350 700
4952 992 720
2000
980
4000
7 2000
3317 3174 17 2975 1400 250 958
3.6 32.2 10 6 6500
392 88 1529 1028 11 1800 5000 5500
605 480 345 534 4596 4500
2317 1462 770 1750 267 1661 45 2143 4500
342 718
2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e
*Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2022
86 GWEC.NET
Market Outlook 2022-2031
88 GWEC.NET
Market Outlook 2022-2031
and the second in 2027, each with 2.5 offshore wind by 2030 with a
GW of capacity. To support further long-term plan to tap into its floating
growth, the Ministry of Infrastructure wind potential of at least 30 GW in
launched a procedure for granting deeper waters. Last December,
concessions for eleven offshore wind Ireland awarded contracts for the
areas in Q4 of 2021. creation of a Strategic Environmental
Assessment (SEA) and an
Norway Appropriate Assessment (AA) for
In June 2020, Norway opened up for Ireland’s new Offshore Renewable
full-scale floating and bottom fixed Energy Development Plan (OREDP
offshore wind development, totalling II). The OREDP II, accommodated by
up to 4.5 GW, and allowed developers the new Marine Planning Bill that was
to apply for project licenses from passed last July, establishes a
January 2021. According to the framework for the sustainable
Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, the development of Ireland’s offshore
3 GW of fixed-bottom capacity at the renewable energy projects. Seven
Sørlige Nordsjø II zone will be offshore wind projects, totalling more
auctioned in two 1.5 GW phases. The than 3 GW, have been invited to
auction for the first 1.5 GW of capacity apply for Maritime Area Consents
is expected to take place during (MACs) with the first of which
2022. Due to higher risk, the expected to be issued in the second
government has proposed the sites in half in 2022.
the Utsira Nord lease area for floating
wind to be selected based on Spain
qualitative criteria, rather than auction. Spain only has 10 MW of offshore
In May 2022, the newly elected wind capacity installed as of today,
government launched a large-scale but last December Spain’s Council of
green investment plan aimed at Ministers approved the Roadmap for
allocating sea areas for developing 30 the Development of Offshore Wind
GW of offshore wind capacity by and Marine Energy that will see the
2040. The next round of awarding country to reach up to 3 GW of
licenses for offshore wind in new offshore wind by 2030. With more
areas is expected to launch in 2025. than 5 GW of floating wind projects
at different stages of development at
Ireland present, the country is expected to
According to Ireland’s Climate Action become one of the top five floating
Plan, the country aims to have 5 GW wind markets by 2030.
90 GWEC.NET
Market Outlook 2022-2031
4000
2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e
95% 68% 80% 84% 75% 80% 74% 72% 70% 65% 63%
Share of Chinese offshore market
Total installations offshore offshore wind projects are expected the challenge of developing a local of subsidies from central
to come online. These will be based supply chain and building the government from 2022. Before
Europe in Japan, South Korea and Vietnam necessary competencies and Chinese offshore wind reaches grid
China from 2027 onwards and the first workforces. Based on the investment parity in 2024/2025, the pace of
Other Asia
batches of offshore wind projects are plans and partnerships recently offshore wind growth in China will to
Other
also likely to take place in new announced by European players in some extent be driven by financial
56 GW 146 GW 370 GW
markets such as India and the South Korea and Japan, similar support provided by provincial
0.1%
2%
8% 11%
Philippines. As a result, China’s success is likely to be duplicated in governments, like Guangdong,
8%
market share in this region will these two markets. To unlock the Zhejiang and Shandong.
11% decline from 80% in 2026 to 63% in potential of offshore wind and further Considering the total of offshore
47% 2031. lower cost in the region, regional wind targets announced by coastal
cooperation in supply chain provinces, – either by 2025 or 2030
45% 34% In total, 63% of the predicted development is a key objective. – has already passed 150 GW,
offshore wind for this region is to be GWEC Market Intelligence predicts
built in 2027-2031. Although stable GWEC Market Intelligence predicts that average annual offshore wind
growth is expected in this period, that Asia will replace Europe as the installations in China between 2025
annual installations in the region are largest regional offshore wind and 2031 will surpass 10 GW, which
50% 39% 46%
unlikely to exceed the 2021 record market in total installations from 2022 will help the country to further
until 2030. The top five markets in and then retain that position through consolidate its position as global
total new additions in this region in to the end of 2030. However, with leader.
the next ten years will be China, strong growth expected to take
2021 2026 2031e Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and place in Europe from 2029 onwards, Taiwan
Japan. Europe is likely to recapture this title Although only one small-scale
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2022
by the end of 2031, though the gap offshore wind demonstration project
China is, to date, the most mature between the two regions will be was commissioned in 2021 due to
next five years (2022-2026), although offshore wind market outside marginal. COVID-19 related disruptions,
its market share in 2022 is expected Europe. Driven by the installation GWEC Market Intelligence believes
to drop to 68% after an outstanding rush that started in the second half of China that Taiwan is well positioned to
year in 2021. Taiwan is predicted to 2019, the domestic offshore wind China grid connected nearly 17 GW become the Number Two offshore
be the largest offshore market in supply chain and infrastructure have of new offshore wind in 2021, wind market in this region.
Asia after China in new installations built up quickly along China’s east overtaking the UK as the world’s According to the Bureau of Energy’s
in the same period. and southeast coast. While progress Number One offshore market in latest renewable energy
and supply chain capacity building cumulative installation. However, development status update, 2 GW of
GWEC Market Intelligence believes activities have continued in Taiwan in following last year’s astonishing level offshore wind capacity is likely to be
that the market will become more the past two years, the rest of the of growth, a sharp drop in new added in Taiwan by the end of this
diversified in the second half of this markets are still at the early stage of offshore installations in China in 2022 year, putting it on track to reach the
forecast period as more utility-scale development and most of them face is expected, primarily due to the end 5.6 GW offshore wind by 2025
92 GWEC.NET
Market Outlook 2022-2031
Total added between 2022 and 2031 such as permitting and grid Vietnam
transmission still need to be Despite COVID-19 disruptions
addressed before the market is bringing challenges to the local
Others 0.9% India 2.2% ready to take off. industry, Vietnam had a record year
Vietnam 5% in commissioning nearly GW-level
Japan 4.2% Japan intertidal projects in 2021, making it
As in the case with South Korea, the second largest market in this
South Korea 5.5% Japan has made headlines in region. Following the installation
offshore wind in the past two years. rush driven by the cut-off of Feed-in-
Firstly, following a major cost Tariffs, GWEC Market Intelligence
China 71.9% reduction study commissioned by predicts that new installations in
Taiwan 10.3%
136.3GW GWEC and JWPA and a series of Vietnam will fall off in 2022 and most
industry-government dialogues, the likely stay at a low level until a clear
Japanese government also offshore wind regulatory framework
approved the “Offshore Wind (the procurement mechanism in
Industry Vision” targeting 10 GW particular) is in place. However,
offshore wind by 2030 and 30-45 taking into account the net zero
GW by 2040. Secondly, the commitment made at COP26 as well
country’s first ever auctions for as the 7-8 GW by 2030 offshore wind
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2022
floating and fixed bottom offshore target included in the most recent
wind were launched in 2020 draft Power Development Plan VIII
target. Last August, the government announced in 2020 and net zero following the designation of the first (PDP8), Vietnam is poised to usher in
officially announced its offshore wind commitment passed in 2021, offshore wind development zones an era of accelerated renewable
allocation plan between 2026 and offshore wind and especially floating by the government. energy growth and become the
2035. With projects expected to be wind has drawn heavy interest from offshore wind market leader in
allocated from the upcoming Round local and foreign renewables Despite the progress made in past Southeast Asia by end of this
3 offshore wind auction coming companies. However, GWEC has 12 months and the growing traction decade.
online, Taiwan is likely to exceed the downgraded our 2030 offshore wind that offshore wind continues to gain,
2030 offshore wind targets set by outlook for Korea by nearly one third there have been setbacks, such as
South Korea and Japan. (from 8.7 GW to 6 GW) compared the delay of its third offshore wind
with our outlook released last auction as well as concerns
South Korea September, primarily because the generated by the outcomes of its first
South Korea is the fourth largest recent elected President Yoon fixed-bottom auction. GWEC is
offshore wind market in the region Suk-yeol is seeking to change the therefore downgrading its 2030
with a target of bringing 12 GW of pre-existing dynamics and goals in offshore wind outlook for Japan by
offshore wind online by 2030. national energy policy. At the same around 25% relative to our previous
Following its Green New Deal time, previously identified barriers year’s outlook.
1,524
945
2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e
94 GWEC.NET
Market Outlook 2022-2031
Virginia
5.2GW (2034)
Massachusetts
New Jersey 7.5GW (2035) 5.6GW (2027)
*Announced plan, not yet signed by law
96 GWEC.NET
Market Outlook 2022-2031
9900
United Kingdom France Japan
Italy Greece China
1000
Spain Portugal Taiwan
Ireland Sweden United States 600
Norway South Korea 500
CAGR* 6900
800
+53%
1000
1000
500 500
4900
500
700 1000 500
500 200
500 750
500
500
2838 500 500
CAGR* 500
800 750
+83% 500 500
500 500
1400 700 600
10 1048 1166 250 500
10 300 300 300
11 100
7 200 150 250 300 500
100 400
17 330 84 100 100 288 350
101 35 11 270
57.1 5.5
96 6 17 500 95 350
300 300
1000 1500
4.6 88 10 6 250 296 500 500 700
48 2 4 9 103
2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e
*Compound Annual Growth Rate., **Note: this floating wind outlook is already included in GWEC’s global offshore wind forecast.
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2022
98
Appendix
Acronyms
AEP Annual Energy Production Commission Environment of Vietnam RECs Renewable Energy Certificates
BOEM Bureau of Ocean Management FiT Feed-in-Tariff MSP Marine Spatial Planning REEs Rare Earth Elements
C&I Commercial and Industrialc FY Financial Year NABTU North America Building Trade Union RODA Responsible Offshore Development
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate GHG Greenhouse Gas Emissions NDC Nationally Determined Contribution Alliance
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage H&S Health and Safety NDRC National Development and Reform RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard
CEC California Energy Commission IEA International Energy Agency Commission of China RVO Netherlands Enterprise Agency
CfD Contracts for Difference IRENA International Renewable Energy NEA National Energy Administration of SDGs UN Sustainable Development Goals
COD Commercial Operation Date Agency China SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and JWPA Japan Wind Power Association OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer SNG Synthetic Natural Gas
Industrial Research Organisation KEPCO Korea Electric Power Corp OREDP Offshore Renewable Energy SOV Service Operation Vessel
DEA Danish Energy Agency LCOE Levelised Cost of Energy Development Plan TCE The Crown Estate
DNSH Do No Significant Harm LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging ORESS Offshore Renewable Energy Support WTIV Wind Turbine Installation Vessel
DOE Department of Energy MAC Maritime Area Consent Scheme
DOI Department of Interior METI Ministry of Economy, Trade, and PDP8 Power Development Plan VIII of
EBL Electricity Business License Industry of Japan Vietnam
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, PEP Philippine Energy Plan
EPC Engineering, Procurement and Transport and Tourism of Japan PMSG Permanent Magnet Synchronous
Construction MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Generator
EVN Vietnam Electricity Energy of India PQQ Prequalification Questionnaire
FERC Federal Energy Regulatory MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and PSU Public Sector Undertaking
99
Appendix
Market Intelligence
GWEC Market Intelligence provides a series Market Insights
Policy and Regulations Asset Owners
of insights and data-based analysis on the Market statistics,
Country profiles, policy Database of asset owners
development of the global wind industry. This market outlook,
updates, offshore updates in key markets
includes a market outlook, country profiles, auction/tender updates
policy updates, deep-dives on the offshore
market among many other exclusive insights.
100 GWEC.NET
Appendix
3. Market Outlook
Global Wind Market Outlook 2022-2026 (Q1 and Q3) Database + Report Semi-Annual
India Market Outlook Report 2022-2026 Annual
Global Wind Workforce Outlook 2022-2026 Annual
5. Auctions/Tenders
Global Wind Auction Database Annual/Quarterly Auction Trends and Learnings Quarterly
7. Components Assessment
Gearbox (2019), Blade (2020), Generator (2021), Gearbox (Q4 2022), followed by other components Special Report
9. O&M
O&M Service Provider Database (ISP - OEM - Self-perform) Annual
O&M Service Provider Status Report (including regional trends) Annual
102 GWEC.NET
GE Renewable Energy Iberdrola Vestas Equinor
GE Renewable Energy harnesses the With over 170 years of history behind us, Vestas is the energy industry’s global We are looking for new ways to utilise our
earth’s most abundant resources – the Iberdrola is now a global energy leader, the partner on sustainable energy solutions. We expertise in the energy industry, exploring
strength of the wind, the heat of the sun and number one producer of wind power, and design, manufacture, install, and service opportunities in new energy and driving
the force of water; delivering green one of the world’s biggest electricity utilities wind turbines across the globe, and with innovation in oil and gas around the world.
electrons to power the world’s biggest in terms of market capitalisation. We have +151 GW of wind turbines in 86 countries, We know that the future has to be low
economies and the most remote brought the energy transition forward two we have installed more wind power than carbon. Our ambition is to be the world’s
communities. With an innovative spirit and decades to combat climate change and anyone else. most carbon-efficient oil and gas producer,
an entrepreneurial mindset, we engineer provide a clean, reliable and smart as well as driving innovation in offshore
Through our industry-leading smart data
energy products, grid solutions and digital business model, to continue building wind and renewables. We plan to reach an
capabilities and +129 GW of wind turbines
services that create industry-leading value together each day a healthier, more installed net capacity of 12-16 GW from
under service, we use data to interpret,
for our customers around the world. accessible energy model, based on renewables by 2030, two-thirds of this will
forecast, and exploit wind resources and
electricity. be from offshore wind. With five decades of
deliver best-in-class wind power solutions.
ocean engineering and project
Together with our customers, Vestas’ more
management expertise, focus on safe and
than 29,000 employees are bringing the
efficient operations, in depth knowledge of
world sustainable energy solutions to power
the energy markets, skilled personnel and a
a bright future.
network of competent partners and
suppliers, Equinor is uniquely positioned to
take a leading role in the offshore wind
industry. From building the world’s first
floating wind farm to building the world’s
biggest offshore wind farm we are well
underway to deliver profitable growth in
renewables be a leading company in the
energy transition.
Supporting Sponsor
Associate Sponsors
104 GWEC.NET
GWEC | GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2022 105
Global Wind Energy Council
Rue de Commerce 31
1000 Brussels, Belgium
T. +32 490 56 81 39
info@gwec.net
@GWECGlobalWind
@Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)
@Global Wind Energy Council