Professional Documents
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Roadmapping
Coal’s Future
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ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE - 3
INTRODUCTION
Worldwide, the use of coal as an energy source remains crucial to the economies of
many developed and developing countries. Particularly with the latter, as
industrialisation and urbanisation spread and national energy requirements soar, coal
looks set to retain its position as a secure, reliable source of energy, particularly for the
generation of electricity.
Coal-fired power generation accounts for 39% of the world’s total electricity production
and in some countries, such as the USA, Germany, Poland, Australia, South Africa,
China and India, it is very much higher due to its cost competitiveness. While use in
some European countries remains static or is in decline, significant increases in coal-
fired generation capacity are taking place in many of the developing nations, such as
China and India, where large capacity increases are planned to make use of abundant
coal reserves – far more abundant than oil and gas reserves. Coal-fired power plants
have a long working life and, with the extensive investments being made in many parts
of the world, coal is likely to remain an important source of energy well into this
century. In many countries, policies to increase the diversity of energy supplies are
being promoted to improve security within truly competitive energy markets. In this
respect, coal has an important role to play – providing coal users are able to respond
positively to the environmental challenges associated with the use of fossil fuels.
The IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board3 (CIAB) has prepared this brochure on
technology roadmapping to complement a series of earlier WPFF/IEA brochures4
that examine various aspects of its ZETs strategy. This brochure focuses on the
technology pathways leading to ZETs based on clean coal technologies (CCTs)
– a significant, but feasible, leap forward that demands a co-ordinated response
by industry and governments.
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Mtoe
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
11% 11%
2% 23% 2% 22%
coal
5%
oil 7%
gas
nuclear
hydro 21% 25%
other
36% 35%
2000 2030
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Although coal remains hugely important for the economies of many countries, a major
challenge is to reduce its environmental impact. Effective methods already exist for
the control of some pollutants such as sulphur and nitrogen oxides (SO2 and NOx)
and particulates, but, despite dramatic improvements made during the past decade,
there remains continued pressure to reduce emissions still further. In the future, there
will be growing pressure to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).
There is much concern about the quantities of CO2 emitted from fossil fuel-burning
power plants for electricity production. Indeed, these are responsible for around one-
third of total global emissions of CO2 and are candidates for the application of emerging
CO2 capture and storage techniques. Although, with a very few exceptions, such control
techniques have not yet been adopted, the technological solutions exist that could be
adapted and applied for reducing CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plant. One
significant challenge is large-scale application at an affordable cost. Identifying
appropriate power technologies and effective monitoring of the stored CO2 constitute
additional challenges. Moreover, a specific legal framework has to be created and market
rules established that would allow CO2 abatement costs to be recovered.
As electricity demand continues to rise, developing and developed countries alike can
be expected to continue using their abundant coal reserves; if action is not taken, CO2
levels will rise. The eventual goal must be to achieve the deployment of energy
technologies that produce little or no emissions. It is widely accepted that no single
technology will be capable of maintaining a secure, cost effective energy supply in
IEA countries, and providing a greater share of the world’s population with access to
modern energy services, while making a substantial reduction in GHG emissions.
The energy systems of tomorrow will rely on a mix of advanced, clean, efficient
technologies for energy supply and use. Energy efficiency demands further effort and
the use of renewable energy will grow substantially from its small base; but, to meet
the predicted increase in global energy demand, whilst reducing emissions, will also
require a concerted effort to limit CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use. Coal will continue
to play a major role in energy supply over the coming decades, with strong growth in
developing countries. In order to reduce its environmental impact, development and
application of Clean Coal Technologies (CCTs), designed to minimise the emissions
of various undesirable species from coal-fired power plants, should continue. Further
development of CCTs will lead to a number of technology options (so-called Zero or
Near-zero Emissions Technologies – ZETs) that emit very low levels of all emissions.
6 - ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE
As part of the process leading to the deployment of ZETs, many pathways are being
reviewed to identify the most appropriate technology strategies and the underpinning
research, development and demonstration (RD&D) needs. These forms of assessment
are commonly termed Clean Coal Technology Roadmaps and are intended to describe
the measures necessary to realise the different technologies, having regard to policy
aims and market needs. Recently, a number of such roadmaps have been prepared,
based on a variety of candidate technologies – some based on progressive improvements
to conventional power generation systems, and others on more advanced concepts. An
example roadmap is outlined in the Annex to this brochure.
6 Henderson, C., Clean Coal Technologies Roadmaps, report no. CCC/75, London: IEA Clean
Coal Centre, October 2003
7 Further details on the IEA Clean Coal Centre can be obtained at www.iea-coal.org.uk
ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE - 7
Table 1 Emissions and possible targets for selected coal-fired power generation
technologies
SO2 emissions NOx emissions Particulates
Technology (as NO2, mg/m3) (mg/m3)
(% removal)
Pulverised Coal Combustion
(PCC) with Flue Gas 90–98 100–200 (SCR) 10–50
Desulphurisation (FGD)
Circulating Fluidised Bed 90–98 <200–400 <50
Combustion (CFBC)
In the case of SO2, emissions from gas-fired systems are generally negligible, therefore
levels produced from coal-fired equivalents will need to be reduced effectively to zero.
Already, both PCC (pulverised coal combustion) and IGCC (integrated gasification
combined cycle) plants can be configured for very low emissions of SO2 (see Table 1).
For NOx emissions, again, coal will need to reduce levels to be comparable with NGCC.
At present, the application of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) to coal-fired plant
can produce NOx levels similar to those from gas-fired plant, and coal-fired systems
based on IGCC technology promise even better performance. NGCC systems produce
only very fine, aerosol particulates with no dust; it will be important for pollution
control technologies to follow the downward trend achieved at coal-fired plant in recent
years.
8 - ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE
Of increasing importance will be the control and minimisation of CO2 from all sources,
including coal which accounted for 38% of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion
in 2002. Indications are that removal rates of 80–90% should be feasible from new
coal-fired plants and these are regarded as target levels for near-zero emissions plant
based on both PCC and IGCC technologies. It will be important to achieve these goals,
and to tackle CO2 emissions from both oil and gas use as well, if atmospheric CO2
concentrations are to be stabilised. In this respect, technologies to capture and store
CO2 are as applicable to future gas-fired plants as they are to coal-fired plants. Achieving
lower emissions will add to the cost of energy supply. How this cost is recovered remains
uncertain, but ultimately consumers should expect to pay more for their energy needs.
At present, the candidates most likely to provide the basis for ZETs technologies are
supercritical PCC and IGCC. With the latter, there may be opportunities for combining
the technology with fuel cells. In Japan, the EAGLE integrated gasification combined
cycle fuel cell (IGFC) project is testing this concept. An 8 MWe pilot plant is now in
operation at Wakamatsu, based around an oxygen-blown, two-stage, entrained-flow
gasifier. The goal of this long-term, development project is to generate electricity in
a solid oxide fuel cell fed with hydrogen from the coal gasifier.
8 For an in-depth review of CCTs, see: Henderson, C.; Clean Coal Technologies, report no.
CCC/74, London: IEA Clean Coal Centre, October 2003
ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE - 9
GASIFIER
AIR
SEPARATION
UNIT
GAS
SULPHUR CLEAN-UP
RECOVERY
These state-of-the-art technologies can be adapted to enable the capture of CO2 and
so prevent its release to atmosphere. In some instances, well-developed processes can
be used; in other cases, further development is needed before CO2 capture could be
incorporated into new power plant projects. Once captured, the CO2 must be transported
and stored. A growing number of reference projects in the oil and gas industry suggest
that these are already becoming accepted practices.
Technology pathways
Having established that ZETs may have an important role in the coming years, what
will be the best route forward in achieving their successful deployment? In practice,
no single system will be capable of meeting all future requirements, hence a portfolio
of technologies will be necessary. By not concentrating on a single candidate technology,
the associated technological risks can be minimised, and of equal importance, possible
routes forward can be tailored to meet the different situations prevailing in different
parts of the world; the structure of electricity generation sectors and future national
power demands are likely to vary significantly between countries and regions. So, there
are likely to be several possible routes forward towards the adoption of ZETs, with
some variants being more applicable to the industrialised nations and others focused
more on developing countries.
With the clear need for more than one candidate ZET, there is a corresponding number
of possible routes forward, some based on PCC and others on IGCC. In both cases, there
are likely to be some distinct steps in taking forward today’s coal-based systems to
achieve zero emissions. For systems based on PCC, the pathways shown in Figure 3
can be envisaged.
10 - ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE
SO2 activities:
deeper removal
new systems Advanced
PCC-based ZETs Advanced
~45% efficiency (LHV)
Particulates removal:
move to <10mg/m3
CO2 capture from plant flue gases may be based on one of the technologies under
development or currently in use within industry. Inevitably, CO2 capture imposes
additional costs and an energy penalty on the plant, so the most likely candidates for
future use will be those whose impact on plant economics and efficiency has been
minimised. In the shorter term, the most promising capture technology may be based
on systems that scrub CO2 from plant flue gases using amine solutions. Such systems
are already used within some industrial sectors, although they were not developed
specifically for treating the mix of gases that characterise the exhaust or flue gas from
coal-fired power plants. However, the potential to retrofit such systems to the large
number of existing coal-fired units justifies the significant development effort needed
before this can be viewed as a viable option. Commercial developments, currently taking
place, are aimed at increasing PCC plant efficiency above current, state-of-the-art levels,
hence the impact of fitting a CO2 capture system to new plant would be less than
retrofits to existing units. In the medium term, alternative systems, such as those using
membranes to separate CO2 from flue gas, could be developed and deployed. The
outcome of RD&D programmes over the next few years will determine which options
can be developed and refined to be most economic.
The other main possibility for ZETs-based PCC is where coal combustion takes place
in an atmosphere comprising recycled flue gas mixed with oxygen (oxy-coal combustion).
With conventional, PCC-based systems, the flue gas contains only a relatively low
concentration of CO2; however, with oxy-coal, a more concentrated stream of CO2 is
ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE - 11
produced, easing its capture. Although the overall thermal efficiency could be higher
than that of more conventional plants with CO2 scrubbed from the flue gas, there would
still be an efficiency penalty as production of the necessary oxygen consumes a
considerable amount of energy. Further development of the technique is required and
efforts are under way, notably in Canada, Australia and Europe – again demonstrating
the need for early RD&D to provide economic options for the future.
With regard to other emissions from PCC-based plant, equipment is available to
routinely achieve low levels of particulates and SO2, and low levels of NOx are achievable
via several routes. In recent years, concern over mercury emissions has increased to the
extent that there is a move in the USA to reduce emissions by 70% before 2018. The
impact of this challenge on coal-fired generation is uncertain, but removal technologies
are being developed and, in any event, mercury emissions fall substantially with the
application of conventional pollution control techniques such as flue gas desulphurisation
(FGD).
Moving on to examine ZETs systems based on IGCC technology, Figure 4 illustrates
some key steps.
particulates
sulphur
mercury
commercial-scale demonstrations
Advanced
NOx activities: IGCC-based ZETs IGCC-based ZETs
reduce emissions early, full-scale commercial plants
power plants various technologies
multi-products
As with PCC systems, there are a number of different variants of the technology, some
based on a dry coal feed and others on a wet feed of coal-water slurry. There are three
generic types of gasifier that could be applied (entrained flow, moving bed and fixed
bed) all of which have different operating characteristics. Such IGCC systems are
12 - ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE
There are a number of developments that have the potential to increase the efficiency
and attractiveness of IGCC providing they are supported under RD&D programmes.
These include the successful application of systems to remove particulates and other
species from the syngas whilst still hot, and the deployment of a new, advanced method
for generating oxygen (ion transport membrane technology – ITM). The latter has the
potential to generate oxygen more cheaply than current processes, hence it could find
application in a number of power generation cycles.
In a further development of IGCC systems, there may be the possibility of the
simultaneous removal of CO2 with the hydrogen sulphide (H2S) present in syngas.
These gases could then be co-disposed of in a single step. This technique is presently
being carried out commercially in North America where so-called acid gas injection
is being employed as an aid to recovering oil from mature fields. Such co-disposal offers
the potential of lowering the costs of CO2 capture.
ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE - 13
Worldwide, as efforts gather pace to reduce emissions of CO2 and other species
from coal-fired plant, there is increasing interest in the use of hydrogen as an
energy carrier. IGCC has the potential for co-producing electricity with other
products such as hydrogen, chemicals and liquid fuels. For example, in the USA,
the FutureGen project is a major $1billion, 10-year, US Department of Energy
initiative that aims to demonstrate a near-zero emissions 275 MWe coal-fuelled
IGCC that incorporates hydrogen production and CO2 separation followed by
geological sequestration. This prototype plant will serve as an engineering
laboratory for the development of clean power, carbon capture, and coal-to-
hydrogen technologies. Operations are expected to commence in 2011 with
the plant producing one million tonnes of CO2 each year. It will be required
to achieve a level of at least 90% CO2 abatement, with the potential for levels
approaching 100%.
ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS
Moving from existing technologies to ZETs equivalents that incorporate a CO2 capture
stage, will clearly have major cost implications for systems developed from either
PCC or IGCC. It has been estimated that for the former, plant capital costs would be
56–82% greater than current systems, and for the latter, some 27–50% higher9. A
large proportion of the increased capital costs are associated with the capture of CO2.
Future technological advances will play an important role in the economics of a particular
system, and there remains potential for considerable cost reductions to be made for
more advanced forms of PCC- and IGCC-based technologies coupled with a range of
candidate capture technologies. At present, comparisons of the efficiency penalty
associated with the different ZETs systems suggests that IGCC is ahead, although the
economics of future (ultra supercritical) PCC cycles with CO2 capture are not yet
clear.
9 Henderson, C. and Topper, J. M., Clean coal technologies and the path to zero emissions, 7th
International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, 5-9 September 2004,
Vancouver, BC, Canada; University of Regina, Natural Resources Canada, IEA Greenhouse Gas
R&D Programme, 2004
14 - ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE
In the USA, where considerable progress is being made on the development of ZETs,
ambitious cost targets have been set for power systems with CO2 capture and storage:
■ CO2 abatement cost <$10/tCO2 (compared to current estimates of over
$30/tCO2)10.
■ <10% increase in cost of electricity for >90% removal of CO2 by 202011.
■ “Carbon-free” hydrogen production from coal at a cost of $3–5/106Btu
($2.84–4.74/GJ or $0.41–0.68/kg) after 201512.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Fossil fuels will remain the main pillar of the world’s energy supply for decades to
come. Over this same period, CO2 constraints are likely to become an ever greater
feature of energy policies. ZETs are the only option available today that have the
potential to respond to these imperatives in a material way. The roadmapping process,
outlined in this brochure, shows how these technologies might be introduced.
In regions with the most stringent environmental controls, where fuel costs are expected
to be high, and with competitive electricity markets, IGCC appears to be an attractive
proposition. However, zero-emissions plant based on PCC technology will be of greater
importance in retrofit situations, where existing plants could be upgraded simultaneously
with the installation of a CO2 capture system, as well as in the economies of major
developing nations, where electricity demand is expected to continue growing at a
significant rate.
Hydrogen is considered to have the potential to provide clean energy at the point of
use, although there are many technical and economic challenges to be overcome before
it becomes a practical link in the energy supply chain. Fossil fuels, notably coal and
natural gas, coupled with CO2 capture and storage, could provide the transitional
pathway to the longer-term objective of a hydrogen economy based on renewable energy.
In the drive towards the development and deployment of coal-fired plants that emit
virtually no unwanted emissions (using Zero or Near-zero Emissions Technologies –
ZETs), it is clear that several strategies must be pursued:
■ Coal-fired systems based on both pulverised coal combustion (PCC) and integrated
gasification combined cycles (IGCC) will need to be included in a comprehensive
ZETs response to reducing CO2 emissions.
Only with effective RD&D programmes, over the next few years, will it be possible
for these strategic options to be developed and refined to the point where they can be
adopted commercially as part of the solution to global warming and climate change.
16 - ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE
Background
As part of the growing effort to control global CO2 emissions, Australia is committed
to limiting CO2 emissions to 108% of 1990 levels by 2008-12. However, the country’s
economic prosperity relies heavily on the continued use of its abundant reserves of fossil
fuels. Encouragingly, half of Australia’s CO2 emissions come from stationary sources,
and so have the potential to be captured and stored. Amongst the sources considered
sequesterable, power stations are the most significant, with smaller contributions
from the petroleum industry, oil refineries, the steel industry, non-ferrous metal refining,
and other industrial processes. Of the CO2 produced by power stations, the vast majority
emanates from brown and black coal-fired plants.
gas
oil
6.1%
1.4%
Australia’s future energy needs suggest that emissions of CO2 from stationary sources
will rise significantly during the next twenty years and beyond. The greater use of fossil
fuels, particularly coal and natural gas, is inevitable. Whilst renewable energy
technologies will meet part of the increased demand, fossil fuels will remain essential
if demand is to be met in full. In view of this, a range of measures will be needed to
enable Australia to attain its emission targets: increased energy efficiency, decreased
carbon intensity, and development and application of CO2 sequestration techniques.
Of the latter, CO2 capture followed by geological storage is considered to be a promising
and materially significant option.
13 Carbon Dioxide Capture & Storage: research development and demonstration in Australia – a
technology roadmap, September 2004 update, publication no. 2004/008, Canberra:
Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies, September 2004
(www.co2crc.com.au)
18 - ROADMAPPING COAL’S FUTURE
The adoption of such measures opens up the possibility of integrating capture and
storage systems with advanced energy systems such as IGCC and oxyfuel-based power
generation, alongside syngas and hydrogen production. In fact, advanced fossil fuel-
based energy systems, coupled with CO2 capture and storage, could provide a pathway
to the hydrogen economy and, based on current estimates, this appears to be the most
cost-effective way forward. With this in mind, the Cooperative Research Centre for
Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) has addressed the role of CO2 capture and
storage technologies via a multi-level roadmapping process that leads from the acceptance
and application of the technologies for low emission electricity generation from fossil
fuels to the wide-scale production of hydrogen – initially from fossil fuels with CO2
capture and storage, but ultimately from renewable sources.
routes forward. It helped provide the Australian Government with enough clarity and
confidence to launch a A$1.5billion programme in 2004 that will stimulate the drive
towards a cleaner future based on a variety of viable, large-scale technologies.
In Salah (Algeria), Snohvit (Norway) and Gorgon (Australia) are commercial, natural gas
exploitation projects where the in-situ gas contains high concentrations of CO2. For environmental
reasons, re-injection of this CO2 underground is seen as a pre-requisite for all these projects.
The experience gained with CO2 storage through these projects will be very beneficial to future
gas-to-liquid (GTL) projects that exploit remote gas reserves and also to subsequent coal-
based power generation projects with CO2 capture as proposed, for example, by the US
Department of Energy in the case of its FutureGen project. Together, these commercial projects
offer a pathway towards the “hydrogen economy” where large supplies of hydrogen come, firstly,
from fossil fuel sources and, ultimately, from renewable energy sources. A variety of underpinning
research projects will be required to ensure commercial projects benefit, both technically and
economically, from emerging technologies and refinements to existing technologies. For example,
further work is needed to understand the CO2 storage potential of enhanced oil recovery
(EOR) and, in the case of enhance coalbed methane (CBM) gas production, considerable
uncertainties remain to be resolved.