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INVESTMENT IDEA 29 Dec 2016

PCG RESEARCH
RBL Bank

Industry CMP Recommendation Add on Dips to band Target Time Horizon


Banks Rs.331 BUY Rs. 331 - 300 Rs. 470 1 Year

HDFC Scrip Code RBLBAN RBL Bank, erstwhile Ratnakar Bank, has an illustrious history of 73 years. It offers a comprehensive range of
BSE Code 540065 banking products and services customized to cater to the needs of large corporations, small and medium
enterprises (SMEs), agricultural customers, retail customers and development banking & financial inclusion
NSE Code RBLBANK (low income) customers. The bank has been expanding its presence across India through a growing network
Bloomberg RBK IN of branches and ATMs and upgrading traditional delivery channels with modern technology-enabled channels
CMP as on 29 Dec 16 331 like phone banking, internet banking and mobile banking. Currently the bank has 197 branches and 362 ATMs
spread across the country with customer base of around 1900000.
Equity Capital (Rs Cr) 372
Face Value (Rs) 10 A new top management team joined in 2010 has brought in latest processes & technology, which has helped
in establishing a new brand identity RBL Bank and deliver the fastest growth amongst peers.
Equity O/S (Cr) 37.2
We forecast that RBL would post Rs. 156 Book Value in FY19. RBL Trades at 2.1x FY19E book value and, we
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 12563
recommend BUY on the stock with target price of Rs470 based upon 3x FY19E Book Value. We believe stock
Book Value (Rs) 103 will attract premium valuations given strong management team, robust asset quality and high growth
Avg. 52 Week trajectory in the next 2-3 years.
5262583
Volumes
52 Week High 421
INVESTMENT RATIONALE:
52 Week Low 273
Experienced management team
CASA ratio at RBL to improve gradually
Shareholding Pattern (%) Formerly a regional private sector bank; transition began in 2010 following a management change
Introduction of new products and services
Promoters 0
Robust multi-channel distribution system
Institutions 24.4 RBL has also focused on technology as its last-mile connector to customers
Acquisition of RBS India Business and other alliances
Non Institutions 75.6 Demonetization - Short term Pain Long term gain

Risk Rating* Yellow RISK & CONCERNS:


* Refer Rating explanation
Maintaining Assets Quality is the key risk across the whole segment in India.
Nisha Sankhala Competition from other Banks and NBFCs.
nishaben.shankhala@hdfcsec.com Interest rate Risk.

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PCG RESEARCH

VIEW & VALUATION:


RBL Bank is making good progress as it transitions away from being a regional bank to a fast growing bank
with national aspirations. With new management team taking over reins, the bank has grown its book by
80% CAGR in last five years while NII have grown at 70% CAGR. We believe, it has still a strong growth
potential over the longer term given that 1) It will remain one of the fastest growing banks in India 2) it has
an experienced team and a well-incentivized workforce 3) it has significantly lower impaired loans compared
with private and state-owned banks 4) its lending portfolio is diversified; and 5) it has an expanding
distribution network.

Profitability, however, is inferior to peers, driven by weaker margins (lower CASA ratio) and a higher cost-to-
income ratio (given that the bank is in investment mode). RBL Bank had come out with an IPO in Aug 2016
consisting of 5.4 Cr shares at Rs225 and raised ~Rs1200 Cr through the same. Currently stock is 48% above
IPO price of Rs225. We expect the bank to deliver 38% earnings CAGR during FY16-19E, with improvement
in RoE. We forecast that RBL would post Rs156 Book Value in FY19E and we believe premium valuations are
justified given strong management team, robust asset quality, high growth trajectory in the next 2-3 years;
Stock trades at 2.1x FY19E book value and, we recommend BUY on the stock with target price of Rs470
based upon 3x FY19E Book Value.

Financial Summary (Rs Cr)

2QFY17 2QFY16 YoY (%) 1QFY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Interest Income 902 664 35.8 864 4.4 819.2 1261.0 1678.8 2413.9
PPOP 191 121 57.7 184 3.3 546.8 861.4 1079.4 1485.7
PAT 90 67 34.3 97 -7.7 297.2 485.3 650.4 865.1
EPS (Rs) 2.43 2.25 3 9.2 13.4 18.0 23.9
Adj. BVPS (Rs) 92.0 117.5 133.7 155.8
P/ABV (x) 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.1
P/E (x) 36.3 24.7 18.5 13.9
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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PCG RESEARCH

BUSINESS BACKGROUND:

RBL Bank is one of Indias fastest growing private sector banks in the past six years. The Bank offer a
comprehensive range of banking products and services customized to cater to the needs of large
corporations, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), agricultural customers, retail customers and
development banking & financial inclusion (low income) customers. The Bank has been expanding its
presence across India through a growing network of branches and ATMs and upgrading traditional delivery
channels with modern technology-enabled channels like phone banking, internet banking and mobile
banking.

RBL has a long history in India, with operations since 1943 when the Bank was incorporated as a small,
regional bank in Maharashtra with two branches in Kolhapur and Sangli. In August 1959, The Bank was
categorized as a scheduled commercial bank within the meaning of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.
Though The Bank has a 73 year operating history, RBL has transformed itself in the past six years from a
traditional bank into a New Age Bank and relationships with customers and domain strengths. The
transformation commenced in 2010 during the difficult economic period following the global financial crisis as
well as the economic slowdown that followed in India.

IPO Details

Company had come out with an IPO in Aug 2016 consisting of 5.4cr shares at Rs225 and raised ~Rs 1200 Cr
through the same. The offer included 3.7 Cr fresh equity shares and 1.7cr shares as an offer for sale by
existing investors. RBL IPO had received overwhelming response from all the categories with QIB category
was oversubscribed 85 times. RBL Bank got listed on Bourses on Aug 31, 2016 at ~Rs 280. Currently stock is
48% above IPO price of Rs 225. Strong management profile and high growth trajectory along with robust
asset quality likely to support premium valuations.

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PCG RESEARCH

BUSINESS SEGMENT:

INVESTMENT RATIONALE:
Experienced Management Team

RBL has significantly strengthened its senior management team with the induction of Mr. Vishwavir Ahuja as
managing director and CEO in June 2010 and other experienced bankers from leading banks and insurance
companies. The senior management team brings substantial experience and in-depth knowledge of banking
operations and management as well as years of significant corporate relationships. Moreover, the workforce
(along with senior management) is well-incentivized, with several stock option programs covering 67% of
employees in FY16.

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PCG RESEARCH

CASA ratio at RBL to improve gradually

The CASA ratio for RBL was 19% in FY16, lower than the 22-25% average for old private banks and 40% for
new private banks. We expect SA (Savings Account) growth to be strong as the bank continues to offer
higher interest rates than the competition. On current accounts, we expect near-term trends to be weaker
than deposit growth given muted economic activity. However, we expect the pace to pick up over the
medium term as the bank deepens its existing relationships and seeks supply chain, non-fund, payments and
collection business. Overall, we expect the low cost deposit ratio (CASA ratio) to improve by 0.7ppt, driven
by a higher savings account ratio.

In the near term, investors will be focusing on sustained asset quality delivery given still elevated system
NPLs and slow macro recovery. Another important driver will be sustaining the current strong growth profile.
Lastly, margins for RBL are lower than the average for old and new private sector banks and the pace of
improvement will be closely monitored. Over the medium term, our view is that investors will be most
focused on its liability profile that will be important for the bank to transition to 17-18% RoE. Currently, we
note that banks' funding spread is one of the lowest among private banks this will be key to achieving
higher margins (similar to new private banks) and higher RoE (17-18%). Currently, the share of non-retail
deposits (carrying ticket size >Rs10mn) in term deposits is ~75%. Even on the savings deposits, the share
of deposits with ticket sizes above Rs10mn is high at 70%. Another key focus area would be continued
improvement in fee income led by gains in the retail franchise and cross-selling.

Formerly a regional private sector bank; transition began in 2010 following a management
change

RBL Bank (formerly known as The Ratnakar Bank Limited) mostly operated as a small regional bank to SMEs
(small and medium enterprises) since it was established in 1943. Its branch network was mainly
concentrated in two Indian states, Maharashtra and Karnataka. In June 2010, the bank appointed
Mr.Vishwavir Ahuja as managing director (MD) and CEO to lead the transformation from a traditional local
bank to a mid-size bank with a diversified corporate, commercial, and retail banking portfolio. Prior to this
appointment, Mr. Ahuja was MD and CEO of the Indian operations of Bank of America. There were a number
of additions to the senior management team, with highly experienced people from various leading peer
banks.

Introduction of new products and services

To maintain or improve competitive position, RBL has continually identified and introduced new or improved
products and services and tailor solutions that has responded to changing customer demands in a timely and
effective manner. RBL has also developed robust and agile processes to develop and bring new products to
market quickly. These processes begin with risk management and include IT, operational and market testing.

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PCG RESEARCH

Through the use of business intelligence technology that helps RBL bank to identify opportunities to create
new products and services and to up-sell and cross-sell other existing products and services. RBL had
launched a smart e-wallet platform that provides customers and merchants with convenient payment
solutions through web, mobile or cards and introduced a specialized suite of services called India Startup
Club including third party services aimed at attracting start-up customers, which is a growing potential of
customer base. The branched located in Bengaluru, Karnataka are dedicated to serving start-up customers.

Robust multi-channel distribution system

RBL Bank offer services and products through a multi-channel distribution network comprised of 197
interconnected branches and 362 interconnected ATMs as of March 31, 2016. The delivery channels also
include internet banking, phone banking and mobile banking. The Bank has developed a cost-effective micro-
payment and branchless banking solution by establishing points of collection and aggregation at over 32,000
transaction points to cover a larger geographical territory and customer base. These transaction points are
the outlets are partner business correspondents and their agents which typically have high volumes of cash
transactions.

RBL has also focused on technology as its last-mile connector to customers

The bank has developed cost-efficient micro payment and branchless banking solutions by establishing points
of collection and aggregation to cover a larger geographical territory and customer base. These transaction
points are the outlets of its partner business correspondents and agents, which typically have high volumes
of cash transactions. Furthermore, the bank has issued Aadhar enabled debit cards, which it expects to
provide flexibility in transactions, enable cashless payments for agri related purchases, and transactions at
the business correspondent outlets in villages.

Acquisition of RBS India Business and other alliances

RBL had bought over the credit card business of RBS and has been expanding its retail focus with the
introduction of other new retail products. Along with that, company also integrated an experienced team of
RBS employees associated with these businesses. The microfinance (MFI) segment accounts for 15% of the
banks book (~Rs3133cr), half of which is in the form of direct loans to micro borrowers, while the balance is
through lending to micro finance companies. Despite it being traditionally perceived to be a risky segment,
the bank has been accruing a very high yield on micro finance disbursals so far, thereby reflecting the
Managements ability in maintaining asset quality firm; going forward as well we dont expect material stress
to arise from this segment. The bank works through business correspondent for the MFI segment and hence
has a strong control over the asset quality.

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PCG RESEARCH

In Oct 2016, RBL Bank Limited, NeoGrowth Credit Pvt. Ltd. and Overseas Private Investment Corporation
(OPIC), the U.S. Governments development finance Institution have jointly committed to provide financing
for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the Indian retail space.

In Sep 2016, RBL Bank has announced the acquisition of 9.99% stake in Utkarsh Micro Finance Ltd. (UMFL)
in what is a strategic move to reach out to the unbanked and under banked segments of society. The Bank is
also entering into a MoU to extend its product portfolio to Utkarsh customers.

Demonetization Impact

Demonetization is such path breaking reform that its effects will keep reverberating for the banking sector for
years to come. Apart from obvious benefits of increase in deposits, it is yet to be ascertained how much it
will affect the credit growth of the banking industry. Whether this event will lead to wide-scale disruptive in
the economy for long or its impact will reverse in a quarters or two is difficult to forecast.
In such an environment, professional run private sector Banks are an obvious beneficiary, especially who are
experiencing broad based growth like RBL Bank.

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PCG RESEARCH

CASA Comparison (%)


Cost to Income (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research


Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

NIM Comparison (%) Asset Quality Comparison (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research


Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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PCG RESEARCH

CASA Trend over FY12-16 NII Growth Trend over FY14-18E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research


Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Robust Growth in Loan Book Non-Performing Assets in Control

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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PCG RESEARCH

RBL Branch network expansion History Projected P/BV Trend

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research


Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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PCG RESEARCH

Income Statement (Rs Cr) Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)


Year ending March FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E As at March FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Interest income 1953.1 2744.3 3869.5 4991.6 6389.3 Liabilities

Interest expended 1396.7 1925.1 2608.5 3312.8 3975.4 Equity Capital 293.5 324.7 361.7 361.7 361.7
Reserves & surplus 1936.0 2663.5 3889.5 4474.9 5275.0
Net interest income 556.4 819.2 1261.0 1678.8 2413.9
Equity Application
Y-o-Y change (%) 62.9 47.2 53.9 33.1 43.8 Money 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other income 403.4 490.5 600.0 700.0 800.0 Deposits 17099.3 24348.7 33847.0 47464.9 65758.6
Net Operating Income 959.8 1309.8 1861.0 2378.8 3213.9 Current deposits 2199.8 2779.6 3474.6 4204.2 4961.0
Y-o-Y change (%) 59.3 36.5 42.1 27.8 35.1 Savings deposits 957.6 1758.2 2637.3 3876.9 5660.2
Operating expenses 600.0 763.0 999.5 1299.4 1728.2 Term deposits 13941.9 19810.8 27735.1 39383.9 55137.4
Y-o-Y change (%) 41.5 27.2 31.0 30.0 33.0 Borrowings 6962.7 10536.2 15277.5 22305.2 32565.6
Current liabilities &
Operating Profit 359.8 546.8 861.4 1079.4 1485.7 provisions 812.3 1287.0 1930.5 2895.7 4198.8
Provisions &
contingencies 60.0 114.0 200.0 200.0 300.0 Total Liabilities 27103.7 39160.1 55306.2 77502.4 108159.6

PBT 299.8 432.8 661.4 879.4 1185.7 Assets


Cash and balances with
Y-o-Y change (%) 126.1 44.4 52.8 33.0 34.8 RBI 1455.7 1339.8 1353.9 1898.6 2630.3
Tax paid (provision) 92.8 135.5 176.2 229.0 320.6 Money at call and short
PAT 207.0 297.2 485.3 650.4 865.1 notice 714.7 1110.2 5005.3 5963.1 8629.3
207.0 297.2 485.3 650.4 865.1 Investments 9792.3 14436.0 13538.8 18986.0 26303.4
Normalised PAT
Y-o-Y change (%) 123.2 43.6 63.3 34.0 33.0 Advances 14449.8 21229.1 34171.8 49186.5 68837.3
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research Net fixed assets 163.4 176.3 193.9 217.2 245.4
Other assets 527.8 868.8 1042.5 1251.0 1513.7
Total Assets 27103.7 39160.1 55306.2 77502.4 108159.6
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

(^indicates including Rs833cr IPO Fund)

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PCG RESEARCH

Key Ratio
Key Ratios (%) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Asset-Liability Ratios
(%)
Business growth 47.2 44.5 49.2 42.1 39.3
Deposit growth 47.4 42.4 39.0 40.2 38.5
Credit growth 46.9 46.9 61.0 43.9 40.0
CASA growth 33.2 43.7 52.9 36.8 55.9
Credit / Deposit 84.5 87.2 101.0 103.6 104.7
Investment / Deposit 57.3 59.3 40.0 40.0 40.0
Cash / Deposit 8.5 5.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 13.1 12.9 14.2 12.5 12.5
Tier I Capital 12.7 11.1 12.5 10.9 10.9
Tier II Capital 0.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6
Earning Ratios (%)
Avg. Yield on Advances 11.6 10.9 11 12 12.0
Avg. Cost of Deposits 7.6 7.3 7 7 7.0
Avg. Yield on Investments 6.4 6.2 6.5 7 7.0
Net Interest Margin (NIM) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2
Return Ratios (%)
RoAA 1 1 1 1 1.0
RoE 10.1 11.4 14.1 15.6 17.7
Asset Quality
GNPAs (Rs.Cr) 111.23 208.05 210.3 212.9 215.4
NNPAs (Rs.Cr) 38.6 124.4 125.2 125.9 126.7
GNPAs % 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2
NNPAs % 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Valuation Ratios (%)
BV (Rs.) 76.0 92.0 117.5 133.7 155.8
EPS (Rs.) 7.1 9.2 13.4 18.0 23.9
P/BV (x) 4.4 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.1
P/E (x) 47.1 36.3 24.7 18.5 13.9
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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PCG RESEARCH

Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

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PCG RESEARCH

Rating Chart

R HIGH
E
T
U MEDIUM
R
N LOW
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE


IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
PRICE CAN FALL 15%
IF RISKS MANIFEST RATIONALE
LOW RISK - LOW & IF INVESTMENT
BLUE PRICE CAN FALL FRUCTFIES PRICE
RETURN STOCKS RATIONALE
20% OR MORE CAN RISE BY 20% OR
FRUCTFIES PRICE
MORE
CAN RISE BY 15%
IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
PRICE CAN FALL 20%
MEDIUM RISK - IF RISKS MANIFEST RATIONALE
& IF INVESTMENT
YELLOW HIGH RETURN PRICE CAN FALL FRUCTFIES PRICE
RATIONALE
STOCKS 35% OR MORE CAN RISE BY 35% OR
FRUCTFIES PRICE
MORE
CAN RISE BY 30%
IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
PRICE CAN FALL 30%
IF RISKS MANIFEST RATIONALE
HIGH RISK - HIGH & IF INVESTMENT
RED PRICE CAN FALL FRUCTFIES PRICE
RETURN STOCKS RATIONALE
50% OR MORE CAN RISE BY 50%
FRUCTFIES PRICE
OR MORE
CAN RISE BY 30%

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PCG RESEARCH

I, Nisha Sankhala, MBA, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject
issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No

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