Nnamdi Ezegbo

Homework 2

1) We need k correct packets to decode the message successfully. If n packets are

needed for the receiver to decode: then out of the n-1 packets, there was k-1
successes, and the nth packet was a success.

Probability Error-free = p
Probability not Error-free = q = 1-p

n-1 packet nth packet

=============================== ===
K-1 success p

Hence: n-1Ck-1 (pk-1)(qn-k) * p

2) P(spam) = .5
P(~spam) = 1 - spam = .5
P(refinance | spam) = .01
P(refinance | ~spam) = .00001

P(spam | refinance)= ?

P(spam | refinance) = (P(refinance | spam) * P(spam) ) / P(refinance)

P(refinance) Based on probability tree = P(refinance | spam) * P(spam) +

P(refinance | ~spam) * P(~spam)

P(spam | refinance) = (.01 * .5)/((.01 * .5) + (.00001 * .5)) = (.005) /(.005005)

0.99

3) a) Given: p(x) = |x| /C if x = -2; -1; 0; 1; 2; 0;

Find c = ?

p(x) = p(-2) + p(-1) + p(0) + p(2) + p(0) = 2(2/c) + 2(1/c) + 2(0/c) = 6/c

Sum of pmf over all possible value must = 1; so

c = 6
 b) p(x) = 2 * (2/6) + 2 * (1/6) = 1
E[X] = sum of all x * p(x)
= -2 * (2/6) + -1 * (1/6) + 0 * (0/6) + 1 * (1/6) + 0 * (0/6) + 2 * (2/6) = 0
E[X] = 0

c) VAR(X) = E[X2] - E[X]2

E[X]2 = 0 since E[X] = 0
E[X2] = -22 * (2/6) + -12 * (1/6) + 02 * (0/6) + 12 * (1/6) + 02 * (0/6) + 22 * (2/6)
= 2 (4 * (2/6)) + 2 (1 * (1/6)) + 0 = 3
VAR[X] = 3

4) a) P(AND) = 100/ (100 + 150) ; P(OR) = 150/(100 + 150)

b) Sample space = 250

Probability of each draw for AND = 100/250
Probability of each draw for OR = 150/250
With replacement, they are independent
P(7 AND) = (100/250)10
P(3 OR) = (150/250)10

(100/250)10 * (150/250)10

c) E[AND] = AND * P(AND) = 50 * (100/250)10

VAR[AND] = E[AND2] - E[AND]2 (502 * (100/250)10) - (502 * (100/250)10)2
d)
e)

5) Y = -2X + 3. If E[Y] = 1, and E[Y2] = 9, find E[X], and Var[X]

The expected value of the sum of random variables is equal to the sum of
their individual expected values
Therefore: E[Y] = -2E[X] + 3
(E[Y]-3)/-2 = E[X] E[Y] must equal 1
E[X] = 1

VAR[Y] = E[Y2] - E[Y]2 9 - 1 = 8

VAR[X] = ?

6)