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BC TRACKING - MARCH 4-5, 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM PST, MARCH 9 2017
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POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology About Mainstreet
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,191 With 20 years of political experience at all three
British Columbians on March 4-5, 2017 through levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened to Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
conrm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines public aairs.
were included. Responses were weighed using
demographic information to targets based on the Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
2011 Census. Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
The margin of error for survey results is 2.09 government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Greater government in British Columbia and a majority
Vancouver specic results, the margin of error is Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
3.44 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For been the most accurate polling rm in several by
Vancouver Island specic results, the margin of elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
error is 4.64 percentage points, 19 times out of election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
20. For Rest of BC results, the margin of error is the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
3.21 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Contact Information

In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President


quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice


President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President


joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:


www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
B.C. VOTERS BACK INCREASE FOR INCOME ASSISTANCE

March 9, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds British Columbians overwhelmingly
favour an increase to social assistance rates for those with disabilities. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has
a margin of error of +/- 2.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Weve seen another relatively stable week in voter intentions albeit with some regional uctuation said
Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Whats clear from our tracking so far is that a large amount
of voters are still undecided making it tough to come to any conclusions on what election outcome we
could expect today. What we do know is that the NDP is performing well but their vote is less solid than
that of the Liberals.

Despite calls from advocates for a signicant increase in income assistance for those with disabilities, no
such increase came when the B.C. budget was tabled.

On this issue, British Columbians have clear opinions: 75% say income assistance should be increased. Only
13% back the governments position they should be essentially frozen while a small number, 4%, say income
assistance should be decreased.

When it comes to the minimum wage many support a proposal to increase it to $15/hour. 55% support the
proposal across the province while 35% oppose it and 10% are not sure.

Finally, when we look at income assistance rates in general, there is majority support for an increase.
Conservative voters are the only voting group who oppose the proposal more than they support it,
registering net opposition of -8 (45% Oppose, 37% Support).

All other voters are generally in favour of the proposal with support weakest among Liberals. Net support
is +69 for NDP Supporters, +46 for Green Party Voters, and +23 for Undecided voters - though only +6 for
Liberals.

Province-wide, 57% support an increase to income assistance, 25% oppose the proposal and 18% are not
sure either way.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:


Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
Decided & Leaning Voters

that these numbers may not hold up for a second


week given the movement weve been seeing.

Elsewhere, the Liberals continue to lead in the Rest


of BC while the NDP are now posting a 10-point
lead in Greater Vancouver, up from their previous 5
point lead. Again, the undecided vote in Greater
Vancouver is high, at 30%.

The BC Conservatives are once again at 13%


provincially and we are no closer to nding out
how many candidates will be run across the
province, if any, who will represent the party at the
leadership level and if they will be able to mount
an eective campaign to capitalize on their
support.

Relative Stability Among All Voters For now they continue to act as a placeholder -
and we will continue to monitor the state of the
With undecided rates still high in Greater BC Conservative party leadership. Despite the lack
Vancouver and Vancouver Island the race of leader the BC Conservatives have been active in
remained relatively stable this week. one thing: issuing press releases that are critical of
the government.
One potential change is the decided & leaning
numbers on Vancouver Island where we see the As our tracking continues it will be interesting to
Liberals make up ground. The NDP is now at 37% see how the numbers move given the news on
on Vancouver Island with the Liberals a close political nancing in the province.
second at 36% This has come as a result of a small
uptick in support for the Liberals while they have How this aects undecided voters, strength levels,
held on to leaning voters in the region (undecided and second choices will be something to watch,
voters who say they would lean Liberal if an and we expect that the undecided rate will
election were held today). steadily drop as the campaign approaches.

With the Green Party at 22% on Vancouver Island, As we move along we will continue to look at
local races would be hard to predict at this stage important issues that aect British Columbians,
though we need to repeat, once again, that one in this week looking at income assistance and the
four voters on Vancouver Island is undecided and minimum wage.
Among All Voters
Strength Consistent
Voter Strength has stayed more or less the same
compared to last week. Liberal support strength is
high while at the same time they have picked up
some new support provincewide.

NDP support is still relatively high given everything


we know - that many British Columbians dont
have a clear opinion on John Horgan, and that they
are polling higher this week compared to our rst
week of polling.
Second Choices
Were back to seeing the Liberals score badly with
Conservative Voters who might switch their votes.

Both the Green Party and NDP are scoring signicantly higher
this week with Conservative Party voters.

These numbers continue to suggest that the BC Liberals will


need to concentrate on undecided voters and that there is
not much room for growth for them when it comes to the
supporters of other parties.

That being said, its always a 2-point swing when you can
move votes away from your opponent. One more point for
you, one less point for them.
Assistance for Those with Disabilities
Despite calls from advocates for a signicant increase in Income assistance for people with disabilities was frozen for
income assistance for those with disabilities, no such 10 years and increased slightly this year and last. In your
increase came when the B.C. budget was tabled. opinion, should income disability rates be increase, be
decreased or be frozen?
On this issue British Columbians have clear opinions: 75%
say income assistance should be increased. Only 13% back
the governments position they should be essentially
frozen while a small number, 4%, say income assistance
should be decreased.

Interestingly, its undecided voters who are the most likely


to support a freeze at 21%.

A majority of voters from all parties support the measure


to varying extents. 74% of Liberals, 93% of NDP voters,
83% of Green Party voters, 56% of Conservative voters -
and 60% of undecided voters.

Support for the measure did not vary signicantly based


on geography, age or gender.
Childcare

Minimum Wage
Despite the fact the minimum wage is set to rise this The minimum wage will rise to $11.35 per hour this September.
September, many British Columbians support the campaign Some have suggested raising the minimum wage to $15/hour
to raise the minimum wage. because of the high cost of living. Opponents say this will make
burden businesses and lead to less hiring. Do you support or
oppose raising the minimum wage to $15/hour?
55% support the proposal across the province while 35%
oppose it and 10% are not sure.

Support is spread evenly amongst age groups but men are


more likely to oppose the proposal than women (39%
opposition and 30% opposition, respectively).

Liberals and Conservatives are registering net opposition to


the policy, with Liberals at -9 (51% opposition - 42%
support) and Conservatives at -2 (47% opposition - 45%
support).

All other voting groups are registering net support; NDP


voters at +45, Green Party supporters at +39 and undecided
voters at +24.
Income Assistance
Support for general income assistance is seen favourably Income Assistance Rates, also known as welfare, have been
in the province - though signicantly less than income frozen for the past 11 years. Do you support an increase or
assistance for those with disabilities. oppose an increase to income assistance rates?

Regardless, a majority of British Columbians approve of


the proposal, 57%.

Conservative voters are the only voting group who


oppose the proposal more than they support it,
registering net opposition of -8 (45% Oppose, 37%
Support).

All other voters are generally in favour of the proposal


with support weakest among Liberals. Net support is +69
for NDP Supporters, +46 for Green Party Voters, and +23
for Undecided voters - though only +6 for Liberals.

Opposition to the proposal is higher among Male


respondents (34%) compared to Female respondents
(17%).

The 18-34 cohort is less likely to support the proposal but


is also more signicantly undecided (24%). It is the only
cohort that is not registering majority support (51%+) for
the proposal.