Name: Alex Bohr Period: B Date: 1/5/16

APES
Human Population Growth
In the fall of 2011, world population surpassed 7 billion and as a citizen of the earth, its
important to understand how we reached this milestone, analyze the impact of our choices, and
realize that our decisions can and will impact the future.

A nations population is the result of the interaction of births, death, immigration and emigration.
Often it is common to express that last two factors as the net migration, the balance between
people leaving a country and coming in.

Using data from the CIAs World Factbook, create a population growth model in STELLA for
the following countries:
United States
Burundi
Germany
China

Access the World Fact Book at this URL: https://www.cia.gov/index.html

Click on the Library tab at the top right. Click on Publications in the left menu. Click on the
Resources folder called The World Factbook. Click on the Guide to Country Comparisons.
Under the People and Society link you will find data on population, birth rate, death rate,
and net migration. Complete the table below.
Note: the birth rate, death rate, and net migration are stated in number per 1000 which is
the normal way population data is reported. In STELLA, you must convert these numbers
to decimal fractions by dividing each by 1000. Also, the population is given as a
conventional number with commas. In STELLA you must enter the value without commas.
Country Birth Rate Death Rate Net Population
Migration

United 12.59/1000 = 8.15/1000 = 3.86/1000 = 321,368,864

States .01259 .00815 .00386

Burundi 42.01/1000 = 9.27/1000 = 0/1000 = 10,742,276

.04201 .00927 0

Germany 8.47/1000 = 11.42/1000 = 1.24/1000 = 80,854,408

.00847 .01142 .00124

China 12.49/1000 = 7.53/1000 = -.44/1000 = 1,367,485,38

.01249 .00753 -.00044 8
After completing the table above, open STELLA and build a population model for each country
that includes births deaths and net migration.

In addition to population, use your STELLA model to calculate the population density for each
country. For this you will need to collect the land area of each country from the geography
section of the fact book page.

Put all four countries on one graph on the interface page. Include a slider input device that will
allow you to set the net migration rate from 0 to the value given in the data. Run the simulation
for 50 years with the net migration at 0 and at the full value. Complete the table below by
entering the current population and the 2065 population for zero net migration and full net
migration. Calculate the percent change in the population for each scenario.

Percent Change = Final population initial population x 100

Initial population
Population

Country Migration 2015 2065 % Change

United States 0 Net migration 321,368,864 401,202,587 24.84

Full net migration 321,368,864 486,462,398 51.37

Burundi 0 Net migration 10,742,276 54,845,706 410.56

Full net migration 10,742,276 54,845,706 410.56

Germany 0 Net migration 80,854,408 69,782,435 -13.69

Full net migration 80,854,408 74,227,288 -8.2

China 0 Net migration 1,367,485,388 1,752,108,530 28.13

Full net migration 1,367,485,388 1,752,108,530 28.13

Analysis:
1.What countries will experience population growth over the next 50 years?
The countries which will experience population growth over the next 50 years, according
to these number, would be the United States, Burundi, and China. Each one of these countries
has a positive change percent.
2.What countries will experience population decline over the next 50 years?
According to these numbers, the only country that will experience a population decline
over the next 50 years will be Germany, with zero net migration, and ful net migration.
Germany is the only country on this chart with a negative change percentage.
3.What effect does net migration have on each country?
The effect that net migration has on each country is that net migration represents the
difference between immigrants and emigrants. If the net migration rate is positive, then there are
more people entering the country then leaving. If the rate is negative, there are more people
leaving than entering that country.
4.In terms of percent change, how does net migration affect the United States?
In terms of percent change, net migration will affect the United States by increasing the
number of people entering the United States. That means the United States will have more
people entering the country than leaving. This will cause more and more developing on land,
more food shortages, and less available room.
5.Calculate the population growth rate for each country. Show all of you work.
See Tables.
6.Jared Diamond discussed the Rwandan genocide in his book Collapse. Diamond argued
that the Rwandan genocide was largely the result of a dramatic reduction in the per capita
agricultural land (people were living on less than a quarter acre of farmland per person,
not enough to feed an individual). Using the population density results from your model,
evaluate the future situation in Burundi.
With the data from the population density table, the future situation in Burundi will be
just as bad or even worse than it was before. There will be an 80.43 % change in population
density in 50 years, 2015 to 2065. There will be 2,136 people per unit area in Burundi in 2065,
which means there will be very little space for each person to grow food and live. This future
situation is going to be just as bad or worse than the Rwandan genocide.

Population Density

Country Migration 2015 2065 % Change

United States 0 Net migration 35 44 20.45

Full net migration 35 53 33.96

 Burundi 0 Net migration 418 2,136 80.43

Full net migration 418 2,136 80.43

Germany 0 Net migration 232 200 -16.0

Full net migration 232 213 -8.92

China 0 Net migration 147 188 21.81

Full net migration 147 188 21.81

7.After reading the attached article, explain the how the Chinas one child policy is
reflected in the population statistics, how it is likely to change, and the impact it will have
on Chinas population.
The end of Chinas one child policy is likely to expand the country's population
dramatically, according to the population statistics in the charts. In 50 years, from 2015 to 2065,
there will be a 28.13 % increase in population, in China alone. This end to the policy will have
dramatic effects on China, as the population will increase, increasing the demand for more food,
land, and resources.The population density in China will also increase, as in 2015 the density
was 147 per unit area, and in 2065, it rose 21.81 %, to 188 people per unit area. This change in
density and population will dramatically impact China.
CNN October 30, 2015
The End of Chinas One Child Policy

China will allow two children for every couple, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported
Thursday (October 29, 2015), a move that would effectively dismantle the remnants of the
country's one-child policy that had been eased in recent years.

"To promote a balanced growth of population, China will continue to uphold the basic national
policy of population control and improve its strategy on population development," Xinhua
reported, citing a communique issued by the ruling Communist Party.

"China will fully implement the policy of 'one couple, two children' in a proactive response to
the issue of an aging population."

Xinhua said the proposal needs to be approved by the National People's Congress, China's top
legislature, in March before it can be enacted. According to Lu Jiehua, a sociologist at Peking
University, the policy will affect 100 million couples.
China, now a nation of more than 1.3 billion people, instituted a policy of one child per couple to
control population growth in the 1970s. When its propaganda didn't work, local officials
resorted to abortions, heavy fines and forced sterilization. The decision to end the restriction
followed a four-day strategy meeting of senior Communist Party officials at a Beijing hotel,
CNN's former China correspondent David McKenzie said.

He has said the move was foreshadowed by a change in the propaganda: While old
advertisements depicted parents doting on one child, he said, a recent commercial showed a boy
begrudgingly sharing a toy with his younger sister.

China began relaxing the controversial policy in January 2014, allowing couples to have a
second baby if the mother or father was an only child. The move was hailed as a major
liberalization of the three-decades-old restriction, but new figures released in January 2015
suggested that fewer people than expected were taking the plunge and expanding their family.

Nationwide, nearly 1 million couples eligible under the new rules had applied to have a second
child, state media reported at the time. Health officials had said that the policy would lead to as
many as 2 million new births when the policy change was first announced, and it was estimated
that 11 million couples were eligible.

China's government has said the country could become home to the most elderly population on
the planet in just 15 years, with more than 400 million people over the age of 60. Researchers
say the graying population will burden health care and social services, and the world's
second-largest economy will struggle to maintain its growth.

"China has already begun to feel an unfolding crisis in terms of its population change," Wang
Feng, a professor at Fudan University and a leading demographic expert on China, told
McKenzie earlier this year. "History will look back to see the one-child policy as one of the
most glaring policy mistakes that China has made in its modern history." Wang said the
one-child policy was ineffective and unnecessary, since China's fertility rates were already
slowing by the 1980s.