Contents

1. Introduction.......................................................................................................... 2
2. Methodology........................................................................................................ 3
3. Available Stock selection strategies.....................................................................3
Top-down investment approach:.............................................................................3
Bottom-up process:................................................................................................. 4
Buy and Hold Strategy:............................................................................................ 4
Active management................................................................................................ 5
Timing..................................................................................................................... 5
The Bottom Line...................................................................................................... 6
Investment Policy.................................................................................................... 6
Macroeconomic condition of the country during investment period........................7
4. Standards used for stock selection......................................................................8
P/E ratio................................................................................................................... 8
Dividend payout trend........................................................................................... 10
5. Selected stocks.................................................................................................. 11
BEXIMCO Pharmaceuticals.................................................................................... 11
Apex Food:............................................................................................................ 12
5.3Bangladesh Thai Aluminum Limited.................................................................14
British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited:.....................................15
6. Investment Phase................................................................................................. 16
Calculation of beta................................................................................................ 16
Expected return using Capital asset pricing model...............................................17
Sharpe Ratio.......................................................................................................... 17
Jensen's alpha....................................................................................................... 18
Optimal weights by maximizing sharpe ratio........................................................18
Minimum variance portfolio................................................................................... 19
Gain/loss................................................................................................................ 19
7.Conclusion............................................................................................................. 20
8.Bibliography.......................................................................................................... 21
 1. Introduction

I have little understanding of stock, precisely I am a novice. Stock investing can be arcane. Like
any specialized pursuit, there is jargon to master, gatekeepers to pass and multiple barriers
designed to keep ordinary people from infiltrating the business. Uninformed investors are a
huge danger, mostly to themselves. There are regulations around stock investing meant to protect
novices from being fleeced. . They work, for the most part. But investing in stocks also has been
made unnecessarily difficult in part to benefit a small band of interested parties: brokers,
financial advisers and the like, folks who would prefer that investors stay ignorant and pay
exorbitant fees without question. All the investors who failed to achieve the desired profit by
investing are the ones who failed to determine the uncertainty of investing. In 1952 the father of
finance, Dr. Harry Markowitz published in his book Portfolio Selection: Efficient
Diversification of Investment about how all the investors will be able to invest in a portfolio
regardless of their knowledge in mathematics. For our project we have taken into consideration
some of the theories of, Dr. Harry Markowitz and tried to create a diversified portfolio using four
stocks of Dhaka stock exchange. In terms of selection of the stocks, we did not have any
knowledge about how to select a portfolio of stocks that might give us a better return and
diversify the risk. So, we took into consideration some of the basic measurers of stock
performances. We took price earnings ratio, Earnings per share of the past few years (from 2008
to 2015).

Since there are various strategies of selection of stocks we incorporated the Top- Down process.
Because of our naivet in stock selection, we were unable to follow the bottom up process.
Because the bottom up process requires in depth knowledge and information about the industry
and company that we will select. As a result we followed the top down strategy. As a result we
selected our stocks from pharmaceutical, aluminum, food and tobacco industry.

In order to evaluate our performance on stock selection we incorporated various measures. Using
the historical stock prices from 2008 to 2015 March, we tried to determine the amount of
investment we will put in each of stocks and diversify the non-systematic risks. We have
calculated the optimum level of return that we might get from the portfolio at a given level of
risk. We also were able to calculate the combination of weights at which we will be able to
minimize our systematic risk.

2. Methodology

For constructing the portfolio we used both primary data and secondary data. For primary data
we collected the stock and index prices from 2008 to 2015. We got the data from the research
and development department of Dhaka stock exchange. In order to conduct our calculation we
used Microsoft excel.
Since our study is based on the monthly return, for calculation purposes we took the mean value
of all the months from 2008 to 2015. Also for calculation, we used the closing price of everyday.

For secondary research, we used journals and articles from various websites. All the references
of the secondary researches are given at the end.

3. Available Stock selection strategies

There are various strategies present for the inventors to follow in terms of selection of stocks.
Some of the strategies that are relevant to us are described below.

Top-down investment approach: Top down process involves looking at the big picture of
the in the economy and financial world and then breaking those components down into finer
details. Unlike bottom up process, the top-down investment strategist takes into consideration of
the factors like geography, sector and size. For selection of our portfolio stocks we have
incorporated the Top- down process.
Bottom-up process: A bottom-up investor overlooks broad sector and economic conditions
and instead focuses on selecting a stock based on the individual attributes of a company.
Advocates of the bottom-up approach simply seek strong companies with good prospects,
regardless of industry or macroeconomic factors. Since we dont have in depth understanding
about the evaluation of stocks from a broad perspective, we are not incorporating this strategy.

With so much unpredictability in the stock market, investors saving for departure must decide
what investment approach may work best over the long term. Investing in the stock market can
be extremely frustrating for those who look back on the big rally they missed and menacing for
those who believe they may be putting money into the market at the top. (Skawinski, 2015)

Sometimes obsessing over the risk of a crash leads investors to analysis paralysis. However,
there some very basic investing strategies those can save investors from losing too much hair to
make the decision to buy stocks. (Kiersz, 2014)

Buy and Hold Strategy:

Buy and hold is an investment strategy where an investor buys stocks and holds them for a long
time. This stand on the view that in the long run financial markets give a good rate of return even
while taking into account a quantity of volatility. It says that investors will never see such returns
if they security out after a decline. (wikipedia, 2015)

Its a passive investment strategy in which investors buy stocks and holds them for a long period
of time, though of fluctuations in the market. Investors who occupy a buy-and-hold strategy
actively select stocks, but once in a position, are not concerned with short-term price movements
and technical indicators. Its a conventional investing wisdom with a long time horizon; equities
make a higher return than other asset classes such as bonds. There is a debate over whether a
buy-and-hold strategy is actually advanced to an active investing strategy; both sides have valid
arguments. A buy-and-hold strategy has tax benefits because long-term investments tend to be
taxed at a lower rate than short-term investments. (investopedia, 2015)
Active management
Active money management says that buy and hold is not a good long-term investment strategy
for the small investors. The most recent decade was not the only period of time that stocks - the
assets favored in buy-and-hold portfolios - underperformed other, less risky, assets. The
underlying theoretical suggestion for buy-and-hold investing, which is the idea that stocks do
better than bonds and cash over long periods of time because markets are well-organized - all of
that has been disproved. Markets have shown that they aren't efficient, investors aren't rational,
and when you buy stocks that have become expensive; you have minimum hope of achieving
expected average returns. (bankrate, 2015)

Active management techniques allow one to trundle assets and allocations around in an effort to
increase overall returns. There is a strategy that combines a little active management with the
passive style. A simple way to look at this combination of strategies is to think of a backyard
garden. While one may plant different crops for different outcome, one will always take the time
to grow the crops to ensure a successful harvest. Similarly, a portfolio can be refined along the
way without taking on a time-consuming or potentially risky active strategy.

Timing
When it comes to market timing we can see there are many people for it and many people against
it. The biggest proponents of market timing are the companies that claim to be able to
successfully time the market. However, while there are firms that have proved to be successful at
timing the market, they tend to move in and out of the spotlight, while long-term investors tend
to be remembered for their styles. Timing the market successfully is very difficult because
returns are often concentrated in very short time frames. Also, if one isnt invested in the market
on its top days, it can ruin ones returns because a large part of gains for the entire year might
occur in one day.
The Bottom Line

If volatility and investors' emotions were removed completely from the investment process, it is
clear that passive, long-term which is 20 years or more, investing without any attempts to time
the market would be the greater choice. In reality a portfolio can be refined without
compromising its passive nature. Historically, there have been some understandable theatrical
turns in the markets that have provided opportunities for investors to cash in or buy in. Taking
signs from large updrafts and downdrafts, one could have considerably increased overall returns,
and as with all opportunities in the past. (investopedia, 2015)

Investment Policy

A clear, well-defined investment policy statement is significant to the accomplishment of a

nonprofits investment program, as it plays a vital role in the overall supremacy structure of the
nonprofit. Well-defined objectives are important to make surety that the goal of the nonprofit can
be achieved. Clearly defined objectives put forth in the IPS can help in the determination of
suitable spending rates, to help ensure that future grant making is not impaired due to a drop in
foundation assets. In addition, by identifying the potential risks the pool of assets may face, the
investment committee will hopefully be in a better position to manage risks as they arise.

Another important facet of the IPS is that it helps define all associated parties and their
responsibilities. When all parties have a clear understanding of their roles, time spent in
committee meetings figuring out who is responsible for which action item can be minimized. The
nonprofit can spend more time on other more productive activities, such as grant making.

The policy that we employed for our portfolio is the Buy & Hold Policy. Buy and hold is easy
investment system to employ. We identify strong assets with long-term growth potential, acquire
them, and hold them throughout investment horizon. It is consistent with Investment Theory.
Conventional investment theory supports buy and hold investing. Over the long run, higher risk
assets will outperform lower risk assets, on average. And historical data shows this to be true. Of
course; at times one requires a very long time frame to see this out. It allows us to keep the
emotions to a minimum and maintain a disciplined investment approach.

The ability of even expert investors to time markets or consistently pick the best different
investments is doubtful. Since we do not have the mechanical training, investment experience,
analytical tools, access to information, or the time to study investments that the professionals do;
this approach will work best for us. So, we do not have to worry about attempting to get in and
out of investments to capitalize on price fluctuations. Instead, find quality assets and take a buy
and hold approach.

While transaction fees have fallen considerably over the years, there is usually some price paid
when trading. The buy and hold strategy is often cheaper. It can have tax benefits since the IRS
taxes long-term capital gains at a lower rate than short-term capital gains. Also, the strategy
requires less in trading commissions and advisory fees, which often force active investors to
have higher return requirements to compensate for these extra costs.

Macroeconomic condition of the country during investment period

At the time of the global financial crisis its impact was not experiential on Bangladesh economy
at the beginning of the crisis. However, some weakening in export and import was which
continued for some times. The growth rates are satisfactory. With the bounce back in global
trade, Bangladeshs trade sector is growing appreciably. The slowdown in the growth of
remittance reflected the impact of global decline, particularly on the real estate markets in the
Middle East, and on industrial labor demand in some South East Asian economies such as
Malaysia. However, remittance performance is not at satisfactory level growth which makes an
overall broad economical change in Bangladesh. (.mof.gov.bd, 2014)

The economy of Bangladesh is a rapidly developing next eleven emerging economy and one of
the frontier five markets. According to a recent opinion poll, Bangladesh has the second most
pro-capitalist inhabitants in the developing world. Between 2004 and 2014, Bangladesh averaged
a GDP growth rate of 6%. The economy is increasingly led by export-oriented industrialization.
Bangladesh textile industry is the second-largest in the world. Other key sectors include
pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding, ceramics, leather goods and electronics. The Bangladesh telecoms
industry has witnessed rapid growth over the years and is dominated by foreign investors. Those
contribute largely in Bangladesh economy. (Economy_of_Bangladesh, 2015)

But current inflation rate of Bangladesh isnt satisfactory. It is very hurtful, offensive and
unstable. Currently the political situation of Bangladesh is hazardous to the economy. Political
parties are giving strikes for which the wheel of the economy is running slowly. The economy is
losing a lots money because of it. Hopefully the condition will be better soon otherwise its stock
market will be in danger.

4. Standards used for stock selection

P/E ratio: Price-earning (P/E) ratio is commonly used while taking

investment decisions by many investors. P/E ratio is the ratio between the
market price and earnings per share. The ratio indicates the market price of
a share divided by the earnings per share. Some experts say the lower the
P/E ratio the better as there is a strong possibility of future appreciation. The
price-earnings ratio is used to gauge market expectation of future performance. Even when using
historical earnings, the current price of a stock is a compilation of the markets belief in future
prospects. Broadly, a high price-earnings ratio means the market believes that that the company
has strong future growth prospects. A low price-earnings ratio generally means the market has
low earnings growth expectations for the firm or there is high risk or uncertainty of the firm
actually achieving growth. However, looking at a price-earnings ratio alone may not be too
illuminating. It will always be more useful to compare the price-earnings ratios of one company
to those of other companies in the same industry and to the market in general.
(computerizedinvesting, 2010)
Figure 1: Industry average (stockbangladesh, 2015) Figure 2.1: Beximco
historical P/E ratio (Dhaka Stock Exchange, 2015)

From the industry data and the historical P/E ratio of the Beximco Pharmaceuticals we can see
that the P/E ratio is significantly lower over most of the last few years. Whereas the industry
average is 22.25, the P/E ratio of the last several years of Beximco Pharmaceuticals is less than
22.25.

Figure 2: Industry average (stockbangladesh, 2015) Figure2.1 BAT historical P/E

ratio (Dhaka Stock Exchange, 2015)

As we can see that the P/E ratio of British American tobacco is much higher than the industry
average. Whereas the industry average is 26.08 the P/E ratio of British American tobacco is
much less over the last 15 years.

For these two stocks we took into consideration of the lower P/E ratio of the company.
Dividend payout trend: Dividend payment is another important measure of evaluating a
particular industry. Depending on the companys policy the company may distribute all the
dividends earned or it can retain its dividend earnings. There are many reasons as to why
companies should pay or not to pay dividends. For example, the dividend payout is important for
investors because

Dividends provide certainty about the companys financial well-being

Dividends are attractive for investors looking to secure current income.
Dividends help maintain market price of the share

Figure 3: Standard deviation and average div payment (Abdullahil Mamun, 2013)

As we can see that food & allied industries give out the second most average dividends (as of
2003).Also, engineering and pharmaceuticals industries are one of the biggest dividends paying
industry.
 5. Selected stocks

BEXIMCO Pharmaceuticals: Is a leading manufacturer of pharmaceutical formulations and

Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) in Bangladesh. The company is one of the largest
exporter of pharmaceuticals in the country and its state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities are
certified by global regulatory bodies of Australia, European Union, Gulf nations, Brazil, among
others. The company is consistently building upon its portfolio and currently producing more
than 500 products in different dosage forms covering broader therapeutic categories which
include antibiotics, antihypertensives, antidiabetics, antiretrovirals, anti asthma inhalers etc,
among many others.

Beximco Pharma has so far exported medicines to more than 40 countries around the world. The
company has visible and growing presence in Asia, Africa and other emerging markets while it
continues to focus on USA and other regulated markets for value added generics. BPL has a clear
strategy to capitalize on the generic drug opportunities in overseas markets and it became the
first Bangladeshi company to export medicines to Europe and Australia as well as the only
company to enter US market through acquisition of product ANDA. The company has also
emerged as the largest pharmaceuticals contract manufacturing partner for MNCs both at home
and abroad.

In terms of selecting the stock of Beximco Pharmaceuticals we have taken into consideration the
lower P/E ratio compared to the industry average. Also we have taken into consideration the
dividend payment policy of the company.

1. Recommended Dividend: 10% cash and 5% stock dividend

2. Net asset Value(NAV) : Tk 19,775,552,465.00
3. Net asset Value per share(NAVPS) : Tk 56.45
4. Earnings per share(EPS): Tk 4.01
5. Net Operating Cash Flow Per Share(NOCFPS):Tk.6.08. (ULLAH,
2013)
Apex Food:

Apex Foods Limited is a listed company in the Dhaka and Chittagong stock exchange. The
technique that we used for our Apex Food stocks is the Buy & Hold technique. Its a passive
investment strategy in which investors buys stocks and holds them for a long period of time,
regardless of rise and fall in the market. Investors who use buy-and-hold strategy actively select
stocks, but once in a position, are not concerned with short-term price movements and technical
indicators. We used this strategy based on the view that in the long run financial markets give a
good rate of return even though some volatility declines.

The policy articulates that investors will never see such returns if they bail out after a decline.
This perspective holds that market timing; the concept that one can enter the market on the lows
and sell on the highs, does not work; attempting such timing gives negative results, at least for
small or unsophisticated investors, so it is better for us to simply buy and hold. The antithesis of
buy-and-hold is the concept of day trading in which money can be made in the short term if an
individual tries to short on the peaks, and buy on the lows with greater money coming with
greater volatility. (investopedia, 2015)

(However, Apex Food stocks that we purchased, a large portion of its execution have impact on
the stock cost. As should be obvious the cost of Apex Food was expanding at the time of
purchase and it was amongst the top gainers of DSE. Financial specialists purchased its shares.
We were also one of them. We understood its remarkable execution in the earlier year and
afterward we purchased its stocks. Moreover, right now we are seeing that its stock costs are on
the rise.
Closing Price Graph of Apex Food for the past 6 months
Highest value: 114.8, Lowest value: 87

As observed from the graph, the closing price of the stock at the moment is somewhat downward
sloping. This signifies the volatility of the stock market. There is an increasing probability that
the price will be farther away from the initial price as time increases. The graph is currently
showing a downward trend. The price of the security can change dramatically over a short time
period in either direction.

In compare to that the total security market and industry in particular, food sector has a different
position in the market. To be precise in the time of the recession the food sector remained
unchanged in the security market. The security condition for APEX FOODS LTD is also holds
promising return compared to the security market. It is highly noticeable that the stock of APEX
FOODS LTD has higher return with lower risk. (Apex Foods Limited, 2013)

Particulars 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09

Turnover 3,844,68 3,305,717 3,933,34 3,207,31 2,205,550 1,824,824
1 6 5
Gross Profit 297,878 357,375 303,517 264,936 217,573 170,735
Operating Profit/ 31,319 20,664 18,735 9,060 1,163 (14,876)
(Loss)
Net Profit before 66,858 62,367 46,704 34,188 19,257 1,898
Tax
Net Profit/(Loss) 17,041 14,494 15,434 10,795 8,559 (8,931)
after Tax
EPS with fair 9.55 (4.11) 27.95 --- --- ---
valuation
surplus/(deficit)
EPS without fair 2.99 2.54 2.71 18.93 15.01 (15.66)
valuation
surplus/(deficit)
Dividend Per 2.00 1.80 1.80 14.00 12.00 12.00
Share
(Apex foods, Apex, 2011)

5.3Bangladesh Thai Aluminum Limited

Bangladesh Thai Aluminum Limited (BTA), a listed company in the Dhaka and Chittagong
stock exchange, has been established in 1979. We have followed passive investment strategy for
buying BTA stocks which indicates buy and hold strategy. BTA differentiate itself through
preservation of environment by saving wood resources with aluminum as alternative material. It
creates a positive image in the mind of customer as well as shareholders. BTA falls under the
engineering business segment. Their dividend payment rate is quiet stable over the years. The
company provides regular necessary announcement timely. That presents apparent view about
Bangladesh Thai Aluminum Limited that the company is always concerned about their
stockholders promote and they are observant about spot settlement. (Dhaka Stock Exchange,
2015)

Closing Price Graph

As observed from the graph, the closing price of the stock at the moment is somewhat upward
sloping. This indicates the instability of the stock market. There is an increasing probability and
the price of the stock will increase more from the initial price as it started perform well. The
price of the security is changing over time.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited:

BATBC is a listed company in the Dhaka and Chittagong stock exchange. Its one of the largest
multinational companies in the country and been operating for over 100 years. The technique that
we used for this stock is the Buy & Hold technique. Its also a passive investment strategy to
buy stocks and hold them for a long period of time, regardless of rise and fall in the market. We
used this strategy to get a good rate of return even though some volatility declines from the long
term financial market.

Closing Price Graph

As observed from the graph, the closing price of the stock at the moment is upward sloping. This
point towards the growing price propensity of the stock in the stock market. This is an increasing
probability and the price of the stock will increase more from the initial price if the overall
market conditions remain sound as its perfuming outstand from the company perspective. The
price of the security is changing over time.

6. Investment Phase

At the beginning of the investment we were given 500000 Bangladeshi Taka to invest on four
stocks from the Dhaka Stock exchange. Based on the previously stated standards we had chosed
BEXIMCO PHARMACEUTICALS (BEX), APEX FOOD (APX), BDTHAI, and BRITISH
AMERICAN TOBACCO (BAT).

Our investment horizon started 24/03/ 2015 and it ended at 20/04/2015. After we selected the
stocks we decided to analyze the stocks previous prices (from 2008 to 31st March, 2015).

Calculation of beta

Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to

the market as a whole. Beta is used in the capital asset pricing model, a model that we will be
using to determine the optimal weights and the minimum variance portfolio weights.
We used the excel software to calculate the regression where we tried to determine the beta
coefficient between of the individual stocks (dependent variable) with respect to the market
(Independent variable).

Stock
s BETA

0.7074
Beximco 97
 Apex 0.789
foods 321
0.707
BDTHAI 986
0.393
BAT 225

Here we can see that the beta of Beximco Pharmaceutical, Apex foods, BDthai and BAT is larger
than 1. This indicated that the stocks are positively correlated with the market. It means that if
the market price increases the price of the stocks will also go in the same direction.

After calculating the optimal weights we used the weights to calculate the beta of the portfolio.
beta of the portfolio 0.585425921

WE can also see that the beta is approximately .6. It means if the price of the market index goes
up by 1% the price of our portfolio will also go up by .6%

Expected return using Capital asset pricing model

The expected return of the portfolio is calculated suing the Capital Asset Pricing Model. This
return tells us what level of return we can expect from each stock.

Asset Expected return

Beximco 0.047997099
Apexfood 0.052767443
bdthai 0.048025585
BAT 0.029675043

Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe ratio uses standard deviation to measure a fund's risk-adjusted returns. The higher a
fund's Sharpe ratio, the better a fund's returns have been relative to the risk it has taken on.
Because it uses standard deviation, the Sharpe ratio can be used to compare risk-adjusted returns
across all fund categories. The sharpen ratio for our portfolio was 0.491858762

Jensen's alpha

Jensen's alpha is a risk-adjusted performance measure that represents the average return on a
portfolio over and above that predicted by the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), given the
portfolio's beta and the average market return. Our portfolios alpha was calculated using the
formula:

Our Jensens Alpha was 0.007399551. This Alpha tells us the difference between what we earned
and what we wanted to earn.

Optimal weights by maximizing sharpe ratio

Opt weight(short sale) Opt weight(No short sale

beximco 0.444060686 0.412002506
Apedfood 0.178774688 0.155891981
bdthai -0.057717812 0
BAT 0.434882438 0.432105513

In order to get the optimal weights of the portfolio we used the SOLVER of Excel. The first
column weights indicated the possibility of short selling of BDTHAI. But if we dont want to
short sale and still want to maximize our sharpe ratio then we can use the follow the weights of
the right end column
Minimum variance portfolio

We also wanted to determine the weights that we can use to minimize the RISK and still get a
desired return. By using the solver we got the weights:

Beximco 0.0119328
Apexfood -0.120031737
bdthai -0.020264075
BAT 1.128363012

Gain/loss

price
weight weight value
Company Trading
Industry Name Name Code
Pharmaceuticals & 0.412002 0.412002 206001.25
Chemicals Beximco BEXIMCO 506 506 31
0.155891 0.155891 77945.990
Food APEX FOOD Apex foods 981 981 56
Enginessring BDTHAI BDTHAI 0 0 0
BRITISH
AMERICAN
0.432105 0.432105 216052.75
Food TOBACCO BATBc 513 513 63

sum 500000

gain/loss 17036.5
 7.Conclusion

In the end we can say that, by diversifying the portfolio we were successfully able to get the
optimum gain. This paper provides documentation of our efforts in developing optimal risky
portfolios, as well as the intensely deliberate application of discipline and process to every
variable, for every efficient portfolio, which all represent the convictions about the future and
deeply held beliefs about investing. the details for every part of the development of efficient
portfolios have been shared from the fundamental concepts of portfolio theory to the
contributions provided by selected asset classes, to portfolio optimization, to portfolio
implementation and finally to maintaining portfolio efficiency over time. Wherever possible, this
report also focused on providing empirical support for our beliefs. More so than providing a
basis for confidence in a very deliberate application of the Excel Solver, this detail has been
provided as a resource to serve as an anchor for the convictions of investors who must face an
uncertain future in the achievement of their financial goals. Diversification is the admission that
we do not know the future. Seeking portfolio efficiency is the practice of making the best use of
what we do know in the context of our convictions about how the index works.
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