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Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis: CBA 2. The Time Value of Money
Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis: CBA 2. The Time Value of Money
George E. Apostolakis
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Spring 2007
P: Principal amount
n: Number of interest periods
i: Interest rate
I: Interest earned
Interest and principal become due at the end of n.
I = Pni
The interest is proportional to the length of time
the principal amount was borrowed.
CBA 2. The Time Value of Money 4
Compound Interest
Interest is payable at the end of each interest period.
If the interest is not paid, the borrower is charged interest
on the total amount owed (principal plus interest).
Example: $1,000 is borrowed for two years at 6%
(compounded). A single payment will be made at the end of
the second year.
Amount owed at the beginning of year 2: $1,060
Amount owed at the end of year 2:
$1,060x1.06 = $1,000x(1.06)2 = $1,123.60
$1,100
P (present value)
F A
(future value) (annual value
or annuity)
CBA 2. The Time Value of Money 7
Single-Payment Compound-Amount Factor
P
1 2 n
P(1+i) P(1+i)2
(F/P, i, n) = (1+i)n
F= P(1+i)n
A single payment is made after n periods.
The interest earned at the end of each period is
charged on the total amount owed (principal plus
interest).
$1 now is worth (F/P,i,n) at time n if invested at i%
CBA 2. The Time Value of Money 8
Single-Payment Present-Worth Factor
1
(P / F , i,n ) =
(1 + i ) n
0 1 2 n-1
A A A A
(1 + i )n 1
(F / A, i, n ) =
i
CBA 2. The Time Value of Money 10
Equal-Payment-Series Sinking-Fund
Factor
May be used to determine the payments A required
to accumulate a future amount F.
i
( A / F, i, n) =
(1 + i )n 1
A = P(1 + i ) [
n i
i(1 + i )n
] ( A / P, i, n) =
(1 + i ) 1
n
(1 + i)n 1
(F/P, i, n) = (1+i)n
i(1 + i )n
( A / P, i, n) =
(1 + i)n 1
CBA 2. The Time Value of Money 14
Continuous Compounding (1)
(1 + i ) 1
n rn
e 1
(F / A, i, n ) = (F / A, r , n ) = r
i e 1
i(1 + i )n r
e 1
( A / P, i, n) = ( A / P, r, n) =
(1 + i)n 1 1 ern
1 2 3 4 5
From Table 5.1 of Thuesen & Fabrycky, Engineering Economy, 7th Edition,
Prentice Hall, NJ, 2001.
CBA 2. The Time Value of Money 26
Inflation Rate
CPI t +1 CPI t
f t +1 =
CPIt
For many calculations, an average inflation rate is
sufficient.
CPIt(1+f)n = CPIt+n
f = 5.14%
1+ i
i =
'
1
1+ f
CBA 2. The Time Value of Money 31
Example: Going to the Movies
1 + 0.055 1 + 0.08
1 = 3.43% iOC = 1 = 3.35%
'
'
i =
US
1 + 0.02 1 + 0.045
CBA 2. The Time Value of Money 33
Example: Investments in Two Countries (2)
1 + 0.08
i
'
= 1 = 5.88%
1 + 0.02
US / OC
US inflation rate
(John lives there)