Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Financial Markets
03: Interest Rates and Debt Market
1 Sem2 AY2020/21
Interest Rates and the Debt Market
I. Interest Rates
1. Real vs Nominal
2. Effective vs Quoted
2 Sem2 AY2020/21
1. Real vs Nominal
• Inflation:
• The increase in general price level
• Usually measured by the increase in price of a representative
basket of goods and services as an index: consumer price
index (CPI) or producer price index (PPI)
𝐶𝑃𝐼 𝐶𝑃𝐼
𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑝 100
𝐶𝑃𝐼
or
𝐸 𝐶𝑃𝐼 𝐶𝑃𝐼
E 𝑝 100
𝐶𝑃𝐼
3 Real vs Nominal
1. Real vs Nominal
• Nominal interest rate:
• The reported interest rate that one would observe in the
market
• Increases with inflation
• As lenders demand higher returns to cover for the loss of
purchasing power due to inflation
4 Real vs Nominal
Fisher Equation (without tax)
(1 + nominal rate) = (1 + real rate) (1 + inflation rate)
1 𝑖 1 𝑟 1 𝑝
𝑖 𝑟 𝑝 𝑟𝑝
• Since rp is small
𝑖 𝑟 𝑝
5 Real vs Nominal
Fisher Equation (with tax)
1 𝑖 1 𝑡 1 𝑟 1 𝑡 1 𝑝
• where t is the tax rate (because interest earnings are taxable)
6 Real vs Nominal
Types of Inflation
• Headline inflation
• Core inflation
• Expected inflation
• Deflation
10 Real vs Nominal
Types of Inflation
Headline inflation:
• Total inflation of an economy
• Inclusive of food and energy (volatile)
• May not necessarily reflect the current state of the economy
Core inflation:
• Normally: exclude items such as food and energy
• Singapore: exclude accommodation and private road transport.
This is known as the MAS core inflation
• Department of Statistics Singapore
11 Real vs Nominal
Source: https://www.singstat.gov.sg/modules/infographics/consumer-price-index
12
Types of Inflation
Expected inflation:
• Need to be carefully managed. Why?
• Bringing forward ______
• Bringing forward ______
• Demand higher/lower wages
• Results: Fuel actual inflation
Deflation:
• Examples: Japan for the last 20+ years, Eurozone 2014, 2015
• Problems?
• Delay _______
• Past debts become more/less difficult to service
• Real interest rate can be relatively too high/low
14 Real vs Nominal
Types of Inflation
What is the most dire situation?
• Stagflation
• persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment
and stagnant demand in a country’s economy
18 Real vs Nominal
Interest Rates and the Debt Market
I. Interest Rates
1. Real vs Nominal
2. Effective vs Quoted
20 Sem2 AY2020/21
2. Effective and quoted interest ratess
• Different loans have different repayment schemes it can be
difficult to compare loans
• Effective rate is an IRR method that can be use to compare
different loans
𝐴𝑃𝑅
1 𝐸𝐴𝑅 1
𝑚
21 Effective vs Quoted
Amortized loan and interest rates
• An amortized loan (e.g. mortgage) has periodic loan instalments
consisting of interest due and reduction of principal.
• The periodic payment and proportion of interest and principal in
each period depend on how interest rates are quoted.
• How are the rates quoted? There are many ways, e.g.:
1. Flat basis
2. Discounted flat basis
3. Annual rest
4. Declining balance
22 Effective vs Quoted
Different basis of interest calculation (1)
Example: Principal = $100,000, to be repaid monthly over 3 years,
quoted rate = 10%
26 Effective vs Quoted
Different basis of interest calculation (3)
Example: Principal = $100,000, to be repaid monthly over 3 years,
quoted rate = 10%
PV = 100,000, i = 10%, n = 3
Annual payment = PMT = 40,211.48
i = 10/12% = 0.83%
APR = 10%
EAR = 10.47%
32 Effective vs Quoted
Compare loans
• Example: principal = $100,000, to be repaid monthly over 3 years,
quoted rate = 10%.
• Question: Which quoted rate do you prefer if you need to borrow?
34 Effective vs Quoted
Compare loans
• Example: principal = $100,000, to be repaid monthly over 3 years,
quoted rate = 10%.
• Question: Which quoted rate do you prefer if you need to borrow?
35 Effective vs Quoted
Amortization table: monthly rest
• Interest is calculated based on the outstanding balance of the loan in the
beginning of each month. As the outstanding loan amount is paid down
every month, the interest also reduces over time.
Period Principal Interest Payment Principal Repayment Total Monthly Payment
1 100,000.00 833.33 2,393.39 3,226.72
2 97,606.61 813.39 2,413.33 3,226.72
3 95,193.28 793.28 2,433.44 3,226.72
4 92,759.84 773.00 2,453.72 3,226.72
5 90,306.12 752.55 2,474.17 3,226.72
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
30 21,852.57 182.10 3,044.61 3,226.72
31 18,807.95 156.73 3,069.99 3,226.72
32 15,737.97 131.15 3,095.57 3,226.72
33 12,642.40 105.35 3,121.37 3,226.72
34 9,521.03 79.34 3,147.38 3,226.72
35 6,373.66 53.11 3,173.60 3,226.72
36 3,200.05 26.67 3,200.05 3,226.72
36 Effective vs Quoted
Amortization table: annual rest
• The calculation of annual payment is similar to annuity but the actual
payment is made monthly. The result is that the principal is reduced once
a year and thus the interest which is calculated based on the outstanding
balance in the beginning of each year.
.
.
.
.
37 Effective vs Quoted
Amortization table: flat basis
• Interest payments are calculated based on the original loan amount and
the monthly interest stays the same throughout.
39 Effective vs Quoted
Different basis of interest calculation - Summary
Eg: Principal = $100,000, to be repaid monthly over 3 years (N years),
quoted rate (Rq) = 10%.
Flat Discounted flat Annual rest Declining balance
(monthly rest)
Interest $ Principle *
Rq*N
Total payment Interest+ Principle/
Principle (1‐ Rq*N)
Annual payment Annuity
(calculator)
Monthly payment Total Total payment/ Annuity/ 12 “Month‐ity”
(PMT) payment/ (12*N) (calculator)
(12*N)
EAR 19.46% 27.89% 13.37% 10.47%
Fin Calculator:
Input: PV = principle, PMT = — monthly payment, n = number of months (12*N);
Output: i = monthly interest rate
Calculate: APR, EAR
41 Effective vs Quoted
Financial calculators
• If you can perform the above computations effectively without the
help of a financial calculator, then you probably do not need one
• Still might be a good idea to have one
• If you need one, buy as soon as possible and get familiar with the
it as different calculators work differently
• My complementary financial calculator tutorial slides walk through
the steps for 3 models: HP 12C, TI BAII Plus, and HP-10B II.
• It would be a good idea to buy a model that your classmates are
using
42
Interest Rates and the Debt Market
I. Interest Rates
1. Real vs Nominal
2. Effective vs Quoted
43 Sem2 AY2020/21
1. Bond Recap
Definition:
• A promissory note or security issued by a borrower (business or
government unit) that obligates the issuer to make specified fixed
payments to the holder over a specific period (usually long term)
Features:
• Par value (F): Stated face value of the bond (e.g. $1,000);
• Coupon rate (c): A percentage of the face value;
• Coupon payment (C): Interest ($) paid to the lender each period
(annually, semi-annually, or quarterly)
• Maturity date: the date whereby the par will be repaid;
• Maturity: Life of the bond
• Time to maturity (n): Time remaining before the maturity date
• Call provision: A provision whereby the issuer may pay off the bond
prior to maturity
• Price (P): price at which the bond can be bought or sold.
44 Bond Recap
Bond price
• Coupon rate = 10%, market rate = 10%, maturity = 5 years
0 1 2 3 4 5
10%
𝐶 𝐶 𝐶 𝐶 𝐹
𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 ⋯
1 𝑖 1 𝑖 1 𝑖 1 𝑖 1 𝑖
𝐶 𝐹
1 𝑖 1 𝑖
100 1000
1 .1 1 .1
= ——————
45 Bond Recap
Yield to maturity
• Yield of the bond if one holds till maturity, assuming that each
coupon is reinvested at the same rate
• Example
• Par value = $1,000, current price = $950, coupon rate = 10%,
annual payment, maturity = 5 years
YTM = ——————
47 Bond Recap
Yield to maturity
$1400
When the YTM < coupon, the bond trades at a premium.
1300
Bond Value
1200
1100
When the YTM = coupon, the bond trades at par.
1000
800
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1
Discount Rate
coupon = 6 3/8
When the YTM > coupon, the bond trades at a discount.
49 Bond Recap
Yield to maturity
• Yield of the bond if one holds till maturity, assuming that each
coupon is reinvested at the same rate
• Example
• Par value = $1,000, current price = $950, coupon rate = 10%,
semi-annual payment, maturity = 5 years
50 50 50 1050
950 ⋯
1 𝑦 1 𝑦 1 𝑦 1 𝑦
y = ——————
YTM (p.a.) = ____________
Effective Annual Yield (EAY) = ____________
50 Bond Recap
Zero-coupon yield
• Yield on a zero-coupon bond
1000
750
1 𝑖
𝑖 = ______
53 Bond Recap
1. Bond recap - Stylized facts
• Bond price and market interest rates are negatively related
• For any bond, a given increase in interest rate will cause a smaller
price change than a decrease in interest rate of the same
magnitude.
55 Bond Recap
Determination of Interest Rate on a specific bond
56 Bond Recap
Interest Rates and the Debt Market
I. Interest Rates
1. Real vs Nominal
2. Effective vs Quoted
57 Sem2 AY2020/21
2. Types of Bonds
Level coupon bonds: periodic fixed (level) coupon payments
• most common
𝐶 𝐹
𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒
1 𝑖 1 𝑖
58 Bond Types
Types of Bonds
Callable bonds: Bonds that contains a call provision that gives the
issuer the right to call the bonds for redemption before maturity
59 Bond Types
Types of Bonds
Domestic bonds:
• Market of issue = currency = nationality of issuer
• E.g. US$ bond placed in US by US firms
Eurobonds:
• Market of issue ≠ currency
• Bonds issued and sold outside the country of the currency in which
they are denominated (e.g. US$-denominated bonds issued in
Europe)
60 Bond Types
Types of Bonds
Foreign Bonds:
• Market of issue = currency ≠ nationality of issuer
• Bonds issued outside of the issuer’s country, usually denominated
in the currency of the country in which they are issued (e.g. US$
bond placed in US by non-US firms)
• Eg: Samurai, Yankee, Bulldog, Kangaroo, Maple, Panda, etc
Panda Bonds:
• China’s version of foreign bonds
• Not accessible to many issuers
61 Bond Types
Types of bonds: Recent developments
Diaspora Bonds:
• Bonds issued by governments to be sold to their emigrants in rich
countries
• Example of use: to build bridges, flood control dams, clinics,
schools
• Emigrants: patriotic, more informed and understand the risk better,
personal interest
62 Bond Types
Types of bonds: Recent developments
Social Impact Bonds:
• Social impact bonds (UK), pay for success bonds (US), social
benefit bonds (Aust), and development impact bonds (emerging
nations)
• Invest in social programs (by private service providers: more
effective and innovative than governments) with measureable
success markers
• Private investors will receive payouts (by government) only when
markers are met
• Governments: payout must be budgeted
• For investors: more of a structured product than bond
63 Bond Types
Types of bonds: Recent developments
Green Bonds:
• Sometimes called climate bonds
• Bonds issued for environmentally friendly investments
• Eg. Wind farm, solar energy, other renewable energy, zero-
emission cars, etc
• Usually comes with tax-exemption
• What is sufficiently green? Nuclear plants?
• Greenwashing: pretending to be green
• Industry guidelines and certifications
71 Bond Types
Types of bonds: Recent developments
Pandemic bonds:
• Diseases outbreaks such as Ebola are getting more and more
common
• The World Bank set up a new Pandemic Emergency Financing
Facility (PEF) in 2017, to provide funding for
• 77 of the world’s poorest countries
• Six possible types of viruses outbreaks such as new influenza
viruses, coronaviruses (like SARS), and filoviruses (like Ebola)
• The PEF is funded through cash, bonds, derivatives, and donations
• Among which as the inaugural issue of a $425m pandemic bond
issue
• Investors forgo their principal when a virus reaches a predetermined
contagion level
• The issue was 200% oversubscribed.
• Buyers ranged from specialised catastrophe bond investors to
pension funds.
72 Bond Types
Interest Rates and the Debt Market
I. Interest Rates
1. Real vs Nominal
2. Effective vs Quoted
76 Sem2 AY2020/21
3. Yield Curves
• Shows the graphical relationship between yield and maturity for
bonds of the same credit rating but different maturity
77 Yield Curves
Interest Rates and the Debt Market
I. Interest Rates
1. Real vs Nominal
2. Effective vs Quoted
79 Sem2 AY2020/21
4. US Treasuries
• Issued by the US treasury to finance the national debt and other
federal government expenditures
• Backed by the full faith and credit of the US government and are
(seemingly) default free
80 US Treasuries
Types of US Treasury securities
• Treasury Bills
• Discount Security
• Maturity of one year or less
• Treasury Notes
• Coupon Security, semi-annual coupons
• Maturity between 2 to 10 years
• Treasury Bonds
• Coupon Security, semi-annual coupons
• Maturity between 10 to 30 years
81 US Treasuries
Types of US Treasury securities
• Treasury Strips
• A treasury security in which the periodic interest payment is
separated from the final principal payment
• Effectively creates 2 sets of securities--one for semi-annual
interest payment, one for the final principal payment
• Created by US treasury in response to separate trading of
treasury security principal and interest
• Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of
Securities (STRIPS)
82 US Treasuries
Municipal securities (“munis”)
• Not issued by the US Treasury
• Issued by state and local governments and authorities
• To fund temporary imbalances or LT capital outlays such as school
construction, public utility construction or transportation systems
• Tax receipts or revenues generated are the source of repayment
• Attractive to household investors because in most cases, interest
income (but not capital gains) are tax exempt
83 US Treasuries
Interest Rates and the Debt Market
I. Interest Rates
1. Real vs Nominal
2. Effective vs Quoted
84 Sem2 AY2020/21
5. Singapore Government Securities
Brief history of SGS:
• Prior to 1975, interest rates are set daily by the Association of
Banks in a Cartel-like environment
• 1923: First issues of 91-day T-bills
• 1974: 182-day T-bills
• 1975: 273-day and 364-day T-bills
• Prior to 1973, MAS will sell T-bills to any investors (banks and
other financial institutions) at a discount based on pre-announced
fixed rates
• There were no issues between May 1983 and July 1987
85 SGS
Brief history of SGS
• Unlike many other countries, the Singapore Government does not
need to finance its expenditures through the issuance of
government bonds as it operates a balanced budget policy and
often enjoys budget surpluses (as far as possible).
• SGS were initially issued to meet banks' needs for a risk-free
asset in their liquid asset portfolios.
• In 1998, MAS spearheaded efforts to enhance the efficiency
and liquidity of the SGS market as part of its strategy to
develop Singapore as an international debt hub.
• Since then, the SGS market has grown significantly, making it
one of the fastest developing bond markets in Asia.
86 SGS
Principal objectives of developing the SGS market
• Provide a liquid investment alternative with little or no default risk
for individual and institutional investors
87 SGS
SGS recent developments
• Since May 2000, MAS has embarked on an issuance program
aimed at building large & liquid benchmark bonds. This is
achieved through larger issuance of new SGS bonds & re-
openings of existing issues, thereby enlarging the free float.
88 SGS
Types of SGS
• MAS-bills and T-bills
• Minimum denomination = $1,000
• Zero coupon, issued and traded on discount basis
• T-Bonds
• 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 years
• Minimum amount = $1,000
• Coupon issue (semi annual payment)
89 SGS
Primary market of SGS
• Competitive and non-competitive bidding
• Total non-competitive allotment is subject to a limit of 40% of
issue.
• Non-competitive bids allotted first, then competitive bids from
lowest to highest yields.
90 SGS
Auction of T-bills and T-bonds: Example
• Amount offered: $250m
• Non-competitive bids = $50m (satisfied in full)
• Remainder of $200m allotted to competitive bids
• Competitive Bids
91 SGS
Auction of T-bills and T-bonds: Example
• Auction of T-bills and T-bonds
• Cutoff yield = ______
• Uniform pricing at cut-off yield for both competitive and non-
competitive bidders
• SGS: uniform pricing
• NOTE: the yield for T-bills is discount yield (recall T-bill futures)
96 SGS
Singapore Savings Bond
• A special type of Singapore Government Securities (SGS) with
features that make them suitable for individual investors
• Provides a long-term savings option that offers safe returns, for
Singaporeans
• Backed by the full faith of the Singapore Government
• First issued in October 2015
• New issue every month (for at least 5 years)
• Non-negotiable
• 10-year bonds but redeemable at par in any month (paid out on
the 1st business day of every month)
99 SGS
Singapore Savings Bonds
• CDP account needed
• Application through local banks’ ATMs or internet banking: min
$500
• Holding limit: $200,000
• Redeem through local banks
• Interest rate: step-up – the longer the holding period, the higher
the rate
• Eg: the issue in 4th January 2021 (January 2020) ranges from
0.27% (1.52%) in year 1 to 1.14% (1.86%) in year 10 [i.e. average
holding period returns of 0.27% (1.52%) to 0.66% (1.68%)]
• Public response fluctuating: see the volume.
100 SGS
Interest Rates and the Debt Market
I. Interest Rates
1. Real vs Nominal
2. Effective vs Quoted
101 Sem2 AY2020/21
Singapore corporate debt market
The Corporate Debt Market:
• Global:
• 2019
• Softening global economy and heightened trade tensions
• Corporate bond issuance increased by 8% to US$7.22 tn
• Asia ex-Japan issuance grew by 12% to US$1.52 tn
• 2020
• COVID-19 pandemic
• Asia ex-Japan G-3 bond issuance fell from US$ 52 bn in Jan
to a US$ 8 bn in Mar
102 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt
Singapore corporate debt market
The Corporate Debt Market:
• Singapore:
• 2019
• Singapore total issuance was flat at S$95bn
• Total outstanding corporate debt securities grew 10.2% to
S$420 bn at end of 2019
• 2020
• Bond market gradually reopened towards the end of Q2
• Global-Asia Bond Grant Scheme replaces Asian Bond Grant
Scheme
• Max funding increase to S$800K for jumbo issuances
103 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt
Singapore corporate debt market
104 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt
Singapore corporate debt market
105 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt
Singapore corporate debt market
107 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt
Singapore corporate debt market
108 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt
Singapore corporate debt market
110 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt
Singapore corporate debt market
111 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt
Singapore corporate debt market
112 SGP Corporate Debt Mkt