12th International Conference on Computing

and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2013

Perugia, Italy, 2nd to 4th September

Practical approaches to modeling leakage

and pressure management in distribution
systems progress since 2005
Allan Lambert: Water Loss Research & Analysis Ltd, UK

Marco Fantozzi: Studio Marco Fantozzi, Gussago, Italy

Julian Thornton, Thornton International, Sao Paolo, Brazil

 The Pressure Management Team of the IWA
Water Loss Specialist Group
Set up in 2003, part of Water Loss Task Force
22 members from 10 countries
academics, consultants, practitioners, researchers.
Objectives:
identify case studies on both successful and
unsuccessful pressure management projects,
analyze results and report conclusions
further research and testing of methods for analysis
and implementation of pressure management
create an international data base of cases
papers, presentations and Workshops
 Audience Participation!
Do you believe that pressure management has
an important role in Asset Management?

influencing burst frequency on mains?

influencing burst frequency on services?

extending residual infrastructure life?

 Overview of Presentation

1. CCWI 2005, Exeter UK, Plenary Invited Lecture:

Practical Approaches to Modeling Leakage and
Pressure Management in Distribution Systems
limited conflicting information on pressure:bursts

2. 2005-2007: Initial IWA simplified concept and prediction

methods for zones with high burst frequency

3. 2008-2012: Improved Zone-specific prediction method

for any initial burst frequency on mains, or on services
 2004: Gold Coast, Burleigh Heads Pilot Scheme:
Gravity System, 3300 services, Inlet pressure reduced
by 30% (72 metres to 50 metres)
 Overview of Presentation

1. CCWI 2005, Exeter UK, Plenary Invited Lecture

2. 2005-7: Initial IWA simple concept & prediction methods

overview of 50 Zone tests (Australia, Brazil, Italy, UK)
analysis of 112 Zone tests from 10 countries
simplified quick predictions for zones with high burst frequency
effective targeting/prioritising of Zones for pressure management

3. 2008-2012: Improved Zone-specific prediction method

for any initial burst frequency on mains, or on services
 Pearson, Fantozzi, Soares, Waldron
IWA Leakage 2005, Halifax, Canada
50 mains bursts data sets from UK, Brazil, Italy, Australia

Some showed large reductions in bursts, others less so

Tried to analyse using Burst Frequency varies with PN2

but wide unexplained variations in N2 (0 to 8)

However, identified interesting failure envelope effect of

pressure interacting with other adverse stress effects
Mains data 1st 50 data sets
Mains Bursts
1.6
1.4
Burst Frequency (no/km/yr) 1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Pressure (m)

How could we model and predict these results?

 Number of Assessed Average % Average

Water 21, 2006

Pressure initial reduction %
Water Utility or Mains (M) or
Country Managed maximum in reduction
System Services (S)
Sectors in pressure maximum in new
study (metres) pressure breaks

Australia
Brisbane
Gold Coast
1
10
4
100
60-90
100
35%
50%
30%
28%
60%
70%
28%
M
M,S

S
pressure: breaks
Yarra Valley M
Bahamas New Providence
Bosnia
Herzegovin
Gracanica
7

3
39

50
34%

20%
40%
59%
72%
M
M,S

S
data analysis
58% M
Caesb 2 70 33%
24% S
Sabesp ROP 1 40 30% 38% M
80% M

Brazil
Sabesp MO

Sabesp MS
1

1
58

23
65%

30%
29%
64%
64%
M
S

S
10 countries,
112 systems
50% M
SANASA 1 50 70%
50% S
30% M
Sanepar 7 45 30%
70% S
23% M
Canada Halifax 1 56 18%
23% S
50% M
Armenia 25 100 33%
Colombia
Palmira
Bogot
5
2
80
55
75%
30%
50%
94%
31%
M,S
S

S
On average, 38%
45% M
Cyprus Lemesos

Bristol Water
7

21
52.5

62
32%

39%
40%
25%
45%
M
S

S
reduction in Pmax
England

Italy
United Utilities
Torino
Umbra
10
1
1
47.6
69
130
32%
10%
39%
72%
75%
45%
71%
M

M,S
M,S
S
produced 53%
USA American Water
Total number of systems
1
112
Maximum
199

199
36%

75%
50%

94%
M

All data
reduction in bursts
Minimum 23 10% 23% All data
Median 57 33.0% 50.0% All data
Average 71 38.0% 52.5% M&S together Source: Thornton & Lambert
Average 36.5% 48.8% Mains only
Average 37.1% 49.5% Services only
Water 21, Dec 2006
 WLTF pressure:bursts initial concepts
and prediction methods, in 2006/07
The straw that

ENT

N
ING
breaks the

SIO
VEM
FAILURE

RE

OAD
RATE COMBINATION OF FACTORS

RO
MO
ATU

OR
C L
CAUSES INCREASED

ND
PER

+C
camels back

FFI
OU
TEM

AGE
TRA
FAILURE RATE

GR
concept
Operating range PRESSURE

For Zones with a high

initial Burst frequency, the
average prediction is:
% reduction in burst
frequency
= 1.4 x % reduction in AZPmax
So a 30% reduction in maximum AZP pressure would produce a 42% reduction in bursts

Sources: Thornton & Lambert, Water 21 Dec 2006;

IWA Water Loss Bucharest, Sep 2007
 Situation in 2007 (IWA)
Because mains and services usually respond differently to changes in
pressure, you need to separate data and make separate predictions

Calculate annual average burst frequency

per 100 km/year for mains (exclude valve & hydrant repairs)
per 1000 connections for services (exclude stop tap & meter leaks)

if burst frequency is high , as defined by Burst Frequency Indices for

mains (BFIm) and for services (BFIs), predict that
% reduction in burst frequency = 1.4 x % reduction in AZPmax
where AZPmax = maximum pressure at Average Zone Point

Use Straw that breaks camels back concept for non-specialists

 Overview of Presentation

1. CCWI 2005, Exeter UK, Plenary Invited Lecture

2. 2005-7: Initial IWA simple concept & prediction methods

for zones with high initial burst frequency on mains and/or
services

3. 2008-13: Improved IWA concept and prediction methods

for any initial Zone burst frequency on mains, or on services
WSAA Asset Management Project PPS-3, 2008-11 (Australia)
2012 modified N2 equation pressure-dependent and non-
pressure dependent burst frequency components
implications
Australian WSAA PPS-3 Asset Management Project 2008-11
Framework for targeting Leakage and Pressure Management

Conservation benefits: Demand management

Water Utility benefits: Asset Management, Opex/Capex reduction
Customer benefits: better managed delivery of service

Source: WSAA/ 3 phases over 3 years, 3 reports, 10 Guidelines,

WLR&A/Wide Bay Water 3 customised national software, 6 Case Studies
 The concept: Initial burst frequency for 3
large Zones before pressure management

This analysis can be for mains bursts, or service bursts,

but be sure to analyse mains and services separately
Field data: burst frequencies in 3 large Zones
before and after pressure management

How can we use this data to develop prediction methods

for selecting future Pressure Management schemes?
Burst frequencies in 3 large zones before
and after pressure management

These are not simple linear relationships!

Burst frequencies in 3 large zones before
and after pressure management

But some bursts are not pressure-dependent

Burst frequency in each Zone follows its own
individual path as AZPmax is reduced
90
80 Zone 1
70
Burst Frequency

60
Zone 2
50
40
30 Zone 3
20
10 BFnpd
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Maximum pressure at Average Zone Point (metres)
Practical fit of 2-part equation parameters
N2 and BFnpd to fit field test results

Assume Burst Frequency = BFnpd + A x AZPmaxN2

Use field data from large zones to find meaningful
combinations of BFnpd and N2
2012 IWA pressure:bursts equation
Anytow n PMZs, Changes in Service Connection Burst
Frequency due to Pressure Managem ent
Before pressure
120
management
Service burst frequency/1000 service

Po, BFo
100

Burst frequency BF
80 Linear
conns/year

60 After pressure
management
40 P1, BF1 Burst frequency
component that
Power varies wholly or
20 partly with
pressure
0 BFnpd Px
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 NPD Burst frequency component that is
Pmax at AZP Point (metres)
independent of changes in pressure
UARL service conn burst frequency
Non Pressure-dependent burst frequency BFnpd if N2 = 3 Maximum AZP Pressure Pmax

Not two straight lines, but a power law

Burst frequency BF = BFnpd + A x PmaxN2 (where N2 ~ 3)
BFnpd = non pressure dependent burst frequency

Source: Thornton and Lambert, IWA Manila, 2012

 Recent examples: comparisons of actual and predicted reduced

numbers of bursts in large PMZs, after BFnpd identified

Polyethylene services, Australia Cast iron mains, Australia
Anytow n PMZs, Com parison of Actual and Predicted
reductions in Service Connection Burst Num bers

250
y = 1.0175x
Predicted reduction in service connection

R2 = 0.9861
200

150
bursts/year

100

50

0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Actual reduction in service connection bursts/year
 Quick estimate of BFnpd for mains, and services
Plot average annual burst frequency vs AZPmax, for Zones with >10 bursts
in initial period of 2 to 3 years (to reduce noise in burst frequency values)
Estimate BFnpd from lower boundary of data points

Mains Services
Prediction methods applied to Durban CBD mains
AC, plastic,
steel and CI
mains with
large seasonal
variations in
burst
frequency
Compare data
before and
after PM
Seasonal
burst
frequency
strongly
influenced by
Reproduced with permission of eThekwini Municipality pressure
Prediction methods applied to Durban CBD services
PE services
with large
seasonal
variations in
burst
frequency
Compare data
before and
after PM
Seasonal
burst
frequency
strongly
influenced by
pressure

Reproduced with permission of eThekwini Municipality

Concept is consistent with reduction of pressure
resulting in seasonal burst frequency reductions
 Implications
Opportunities for reducing bursts on mains and services
need separate predictions, and vary from Zone to Zone
and MUST use max. Average Zone Pressure for predictions
Simple 2006 prediction method (1.4 times) works OK for
average predictions in zones with high burst frequencies
2012 improved prediction method now successfully
tested and used in Australian, South African, UK Zones
Small pressure reductions on large Zones can produce
bigger benefits than large reductions on small Zones.
Asset management benefits substantially exceed
traditional benefits of reduced leak flow rates alone
Cost savings from deferral of mains and services
renewals are several times savings in burst repairs costs

 Questions?
Thank you for your interest and attention
The paper and presentation, together with more
information and most references, can soon be
downloaded from
www.leakssuite.com
www.studiomarcofantozzi.it
Also available on request through websites:
a Note on how to define Average Zone Points and
calculate average system pressures
a free software AZP&NDFCalcs to record calculations