Professional Documents
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Bolivia'S Crisis of Governance: Peter Deshazo Phillip Mclean
Bolivia'S Crisis of Governance: Peter Deshazo Phillip Mclean
Governance
Peter DeShazo
Phillip McLean
December 2005
Peter DeShazo
Phillip McLean
December 2005
About CSIS
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a nonprofit, bipartisan public
policy organization established in 1962 to provide strategic insights and practical policy
solutions to decisionmakers concerned with global security. Over the years, it has grown
to be one of the largest organizations of its kind, with a staff of some 200 employees,
including more than 120 analysts working to address the changing dynamics of
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CSIS is organized around three broad program areas, which together enable it to offer
truly integrated insights and solutions to the challenges of global security. First, CSIS
addresses the new drivers of global security, with programs on the international financial
and economic system, foreign assistance, energy security, technology, biotechnology,
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possesses one of Americas most comprehensive programs on U.S. and international
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is the only institution of its kind with resident experts on all the worlds major populated
geographic regions.
CSIS was founded four decades ago by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke.
Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999,
and since April 2000, John J. Hamre has led CSIS as president and chief executive
officer.
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institution. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed
herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
This report was prepared under the aegis of the CSIS Policy Papers on the Americas
series. Comments are welcome and should be directed to:
CSIS Americas Program
1800 K Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20006
Phone: (202) 775-3150
Fax: (202) 466-4739
Web: www.csis.org/
Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................1
Conclusions................................................................................................11
iii
Blank
Bolivias Crisis of
Governance
Peter DeShazo and Phillip McLean
Introduction
Bolivia remains in the midst of a deep political crisis, notwithstanding the election
of Evo Morales on December 18 by an absolute majority of votes. The
manifestations of this crisis have been readily apparent during the past three
years, highlighted by the forced departure from office of two presidents, but its
roots go back much further. The crisis is marked by a sharp decline in the prestige
and authority of the state, the weakening of an already debilitated rule of law, the
near collapse of traditional political parties, increased ethnic and regional tension
and a clash between rival visions of Bolivias future that differ fundamentally.
Politics have become both fragmented and polarized. The era of government by
broad coalition among historic political parties has come to an end, with prospects
for the consolidation of an effective replacement in doubt. Political consensus is
in short supply and representative democracy under strain.
The Morales government that takes office on January 22 will face daunting
challenges if it seriously seeks to emerge from the crisis of government. It must
repair the damage done to legitimate state authority during the past tumultuous
years, rebuild relations between the executive branch and Congress, broaden
efforts at improving municipal and local government, and begin a long overdue
effort to promote transparency in government and fight corruption. On the
economic front, the new government must pursue strategies that promote
sustained economic growth and create jobsjobs that allow Bolivians to be lifted
out of poverty. Urgent efforts must be made in health, education, housing, and
infrastructure. This requires investment, public and private, domestic and foreign,
and a key challenge will be to encourage an environment conducive to such
investment. Most importantly, Bolivias pressing social and economic needs will
not be met without improvements in governancein the ability of the state to
effectively, democratically, and efficiently exercise its legitimate authority to
promote the common good.
On December 2, 2005, the CSIS Americas Program held a conference to
examine Bolivias crisis of governance, to analyze why it occurred and what steps
can be taken to promote more effective and legitimate institutions of government.
The event brought together six leading experts from the academic, government,
and media fields in an attempt to extract conclusions and lessons from the
1
2 Bolivias Crisis of Governance
Bolivian experience. The audience for the event included U.S., Bolivian, and
third-country government officials, diplomats, the media, academicians, and
representatives from international financial organizations, nongovernmental
organizations (NGOs), civil society, and the human rights community. The
conference was divided into two panels of three participants each, with a working
luncheon to broaden discussion and develop conclusions.
This report summarizes the work of the two panels and the luncheon
discussion and outlines the conclusions reached. The purpose of the conference
was practicalto provide policymakers in a wide variety of fields with an
analysis of the challenges involved in promoting effective governance in a
multiethnic, developing country. The conference was held some two weeks before
Bolivias December 18 general elections and therefore remarks by panelists
referring to the elections were made without knowledge of what the results would
be.
This conference and publication were made possible through support provided
by the Office of the Bolivia Mission, U.S. Agency for International Development,
under the terms of Award No. 511-G-00-05-00288-00.
The opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and speaker(s) and do
not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International
Development.
Peter DeShazo and Phillip McLean 3
1
To view Herbert Kleins presentation, please go to:
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/051202_washington_popular_protest_bolivia.pdf.
4 Bolivias Crisis of Governance
(MAS) party are the most visiblesay they want a new constitution with a
corporate structure, ethnic-based representation, an end to gas contracts, an ill-
defined socialist state, and an end to the Washington Consensus and to anti-
coca campaigns. Klein contrasted the incoherent demands of the Morales camp
with Bolivias political collapse as manifested during the ill-fated government of
Carlos Mesa, resulting in a cauldron of activity but little progress in
establishing coherent governance. With regard to the regional autonomy issue,
Klein debunked the idea that Santa Cruz would separate from Bolivia. He
suggested that the overall outlook is for more social conflict, but Bolivia has
shown in the past that through constant negotiations it is capable of resolving
difficult political challenges.
2
To view Juan Cariagas presentation, please go to:
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/051202_cariaga_bolivia_presentation.pdf.
Peter DeShazo and Phillip McLean 5
Panel II, moderated by Peter DeShazo, director of the CSIS Americas Program,
looked ahead to possible steps that could be taken to confront Bolivias crisis of
governance.
Tomasa Yarhui Jacom was the first Quechua woman to serve as a minister of
state in Bolivia, having been named minister for peasant, indigenous, and first
peoples affairs in 2002.3 She opened her presentation with a broad description of
the state of indigenous participation in Bolivian politics, underscoring that central
government and traditional political parties traditionally overlooked the countrys
indigenous majority. Although indigenous representation in Congress eventually
grew to considerable size, spread out among many parties, Yarhui noted that a
mere 1 percent of public employees were indigenous and that indigenous peoples
had little role in decisionmaking within Bolivias traditional parties, which had a
strongly urban orientation that translated into lack of attention paid by the central
government to peasant/campesino problems. Exclusion of the indigenous from the
decisionmaking process, she claimed, holds back effective governance in Bolivia,
limiting the legitimacy of the state in the eyes of the indigenous and limiting the
countrys potential for economic development. She highlighted a number of
variables affecting potential for improved governance.
Effective governance is a two-way street, requiring responsibility both
from governors and the governed. In the case of Bolivia, the plethora of
3
To view Tomasa Yarhui Jacoms presentation, please go to:
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/051202_yarhui_speech.pdf.
Peter DeShazo and Phillip McLean 7
Juan Carlos Rocha, the editor of the leading La Paz daily La Razn, opened his
presentation by describing the current state of affairs in Bolivia as a historic tie
(empate histrico) of a social nature transferred onto the political stage.4 The
December elections closely mirror this tie underscoring the ungovernable,
unstable, and fragile present situation. Though the country has maintained its
democratic status since 1982, the past three years have been among the most
difficult Bolivia has ever experience, and he predicted that the profound crisis of
governance that Bolivia is experiencing will not end on election day. Instead, he
predicted, the election will put an end to the undeclared social truce of past
months, and a new cycle of conflict will commence.
According to Rocha, Bolivia is going through more than just a crisis of
governance, rather a process of historic changes related to the rapid rise in
participation by new social and political actors, specifically Bolivias indigenous.
He described the upcoming election as a high-risk bet because it is very likely
that whomever wins the presidency will have a weak mandate on which to rule,
leaving the country submerged in the tie he outlined earlier. If Morales wins the
presidencyand he is ahead in the pollsthe forces led by Jorge Quiroga would
control the Senate and most departmental governments.
Rocha feels that Bolivia faces one of two possible outcomes as a result of the
elections. The first is a disaster. That would be triggered by a victory of
Morales or Quiroga by less than six to eight points, condemning the future
government to one of transitional status not unlike the failed regimes of Snchez
de Lozada and Mesa, with greater social fragmentation, regional tension, and
confrontation. The second outcomeharder to bring aboutwould be one of
national coming together (concertacin) around a common agenda based on a
moderation of positions rather than greater polarization. This would require
4
To view Juan Carlos Rochas presentation, please go to:
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/051202_rocha_remarks.pdf.
8 Bolivias Crisis of Governance
historic change for Bolivia: the putting aside of personal and small group needs in
favor of the national good. The possible vehicle for this process could be the
future constitutional assembly and referendum on regional autonomy, although
these processes will ultimately fail if a greater degree of political consensus does
not emerge following the elections.
Profound change is needed in Boliviaon the rules of the democratic game,
on the role of the state in the economy, in the well-being of BoliviansRocha
argued, but the programs offered by the two leading candidates are radically
contradictory in outlook. Nonetheless, if the new government is to succeed, it
must convert itself into a government of national unity, seeking an agenda of
basic consensus on five key issues confronting the country:
constitutional assembly
regional autonomy
policy on hydrocarbons
policy on landholding
macroeconomic policy, especially openness to a free trade agreement with
the United States
According to Rocha, only the second option, that of increased consensus, can
solve Bolivias problems; although at this time it seems virtually impossible, it
is the only hope. National dialogue must include all sectors: politicians,
intellectuals, the media, unions, and campesinos. This outcome requires hard
work and a new political ethic that all Bolivians must pursue.
(Evo Morales) for president who has a strong chance of winning. Morales, he
argued, will have the opportunity to attack Bolivias long-term ills of
authoritarianism, corporatism, and patronage politics while making rational use
of national resources. In doing so, he comes up against the bad characteristics
of the country: strong social exclusion of indigenous populations, widespread
poverty and inequality, and what he described as multidirectional racism, which
cuts both ways between the indigenous and nonindigenous. These factors
underscore the ugly variables: that the results of the December 18 election
might not be respected, lack of agreement on the democratic rules of the game,
a still-latent authoritarianism, and continued racism.
Taking these considerations into account, Gamarra laid out six possible
outcomes to the December 18 elections, all influenced by the fact that Bolivia is
polarized and atomized at the same timereferring to the concept of the tie
mentioned by Rocha. In each of the scenarios, he laid out the conditions under
which different actors/variables (government, opposition, the street, armed
forces, police, regional leaders, international) might respond, starting with what
he considered the most likely scenario, Evo Morales winning by a slim margin, to
the least likely, Jorge Quiroga placing second but still elected president during
second-round voting in Congress. None of these solutions bodes well for solving
Bolivias problems, according to Gamarra. Beyond the elections looms the
possibility of the constitutional assembly, whose success or failure will depend on
who is selected to participate in it, ideally carried out on as depoliticized a level as
possible. Gamarra also mentioned strong public desire to reform Bolivias penal
code to make it tougher on law breakers.
Alexander Watson, managing director of Hills & Company and former U.S.
assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, moderated a
discussion session following the two panels. Several new topic areas were
developed.
Should Evo Morales be elected, what will his policy on coca and
hydrocarbons be?
Eduardo Gamarra responded that the MAS would likely run to the left and
govern from the right. That said, he questioned whether the MAS and Evo
Morales really understood the implications of arbitration with the hydrocarbons
companies over changes in their contracts. He predicted that nationalization will
not occur but that there will be migration of contracts from joint-venture deals to
service contracts. While the nationalization of Petrobrs would not be something
most politicians in Bolivia would want, political positions across the board
suggest a larger future role for Bolivias state hydrocarbons corporation (YPFB).
Regarding coca production, he expressed criticism of past U.S. drug policy, while
stating that the U.S. embassy in La Paz has been careful not to become a factor in
10 Bolivias Crisis of Governance
the electoral campaign and that the United States is not making threats to
decertify Bolivia should coca production be resumed in the Chapare. The United
States should engage with Evo Morales, not disengage, he opined. Disengagement
would push in a direction that is contrary to U.S. interests.
Luis Fernando Tapia expressed the view that Bolivias economic policy would
not change much under a possible Morales governmentthat Evo would instead
consolidate reforms that have been made. YPFB would be rebuilt to control the
hydrocarbons sector, but the MAS would not call for confiscation of foreign
hydrocarbon holdings but bring them under the tutelage of YPFB. Brazil, he felt,
could live with an arrangement like that.
To what extent is Hugo Chvez a political factor in Bolivia?
Juan Carlos Rocha expressed the view that the cocaleros are a radical but
small minority of Evo Moraless supporters and would not necessarily drive
policy. To help steer Evo along moderate lines, the United States should be the
first country to invite him to dialogue. As for Chvez, Bolivian public opinion
already rejected an expression of support for Morales by Venezuelas charg
daffaires in La Paz.
Gamarra noted that the United States is overwhelming focused on Chvez,
viewing events in the region as a black-or-white divide depending on who sides
with him or does not. Though Chvez clearly has a large interest in Evo Morales
and his success, Evo exists because Bolivia, not Chvez, produced him. If Chvez
and, for that matter, Fidel Castro are well-liked in Bolivia, that is a fact.
Herbert Klein argued that the United States should think less about Chvez
and concentrate its outreach toward Brazil. Referring to the previous question, he
felt that Bolivia would skate close to the abyss but not fall in.
Can effective government emerge from the election?
Tapia predicted that if Quiroga wins, he would try to form a government with
well-known figures drawn from his own PODEMOS movement and from Doria
Medinas Union Nacional (UN) group. If Morales wins, the MAS program of
government would be widely negotiated, but the MAS could govern alone. A
UN/MAS co-government would be unlikely but still possible, although there is no
indication yet of a possible pact.
Will Bolivia separate into two nations?
Gamarra expressed the view that the MAS is the new MNRmulticultural
and multisectoralcapable of bringing people together in a continuation of
government by pacts. Evo is well known to Bolivians, having been active since
1985. In outlook, he is authoritarian and corporatist. As for Bolivian regionalism,
he stated that opinion polls show that the people of Santa Cruz department have a
stronger sense of country than others in Bolivia and that there is a prevalent desire
to construct a country rather than draw away from it.
Klein observed that Bolivia is moving from a central state to a federal state in
which everything is open, everything negotiable. The future process will be one
of redefining what the nation is.
Peter DeShazo and Phillip McLean 11
Tapia saw value in the clash of ideas: that conflict would force negotiation
and that the resolution of conflict by negotiation gives legitimacy to the results.
Is a constituent assembly a good idea?
Juan Cariaga argued that Bolivias constitution should be amended but not
scrapped. Bolivias problems do not arise from the constitution but from the fact
that nobody obeys it.
Tapia reiterated his earlier statement that real democratization in Bolivia can
only come about through a constituent assembly, but determining who will
participate is a difficult task.
Conclusions
from within his camp for nationalization. His economic policies have not been
clearly expressed, probably reflecting confusion and uncertainty on how to
handle economic issues.
Bolivia cannot emerge from its political crisis without achieving some kind of
national consensus, although there was little optimism that it would happen.
Panelists termed this process a concertacin, a social pact, and a
governance pact. To do so, Bolivians would have to put aside parochial
claims in search of the national good.
One vehicle identified as a possible means of promoting greater consensus is a
future constituent assembly, recognizing, however that the success of such a
process would depend on first achieving basic agreement on rules for carrying
out the assembly, a difficult task.
Although pressures for greater regional autonomy remain strong, perhaps even
to the point of the nation redefining itself, the department of Santa Cruz will
not separate from Bolivia.