SpaceSettlement:anEasierWay

AlGlobus,SanJoseStateUniversity
StephenCovey,DSI,Inc.
DanielFaber,DSI,Inc.
November2015
Preprint0.2

Comewithmeifyouwanttolive,KyleReeseinTheTerminator,1984

Abstract
Tosurviveinthelongrun,wemustsettlebeyondEarth.Wearetakingthefirststepsnow,
buttherehasbeenaproblem.LunarorMartiansettlementswillbeveryfarawayandlow
gravityisaseriousproblemforchildren.Freespacesettlementdesignshavetypicallybeen
kilometerscalespacecraftweighingmillionsoftonsrequiringbothlargescalespace
constructionandextraterrestrialminingandmaterialsprocessinginfrastructurebeforethe
firstsettlermovesin.Toutilizeextraterrestrialmaterialsthesedesignsaretypicallylocatedin
orbitsveryfarfromEarth,atleastasfarastheMoon.Beingsomassiveanddistantmakes
constructionimpractical.

Thisisabouttochange.Tworecentdiscoveriesregardingspaceradiationandhuman
rotationtolerancesuggestthatthefirstfreespacesettlementsmayhaveamassmeasured
inkilotons,ratherthanmegatons,withdimensionsaround112mratherthanhalfakilometer
ormore.First,spaceradiationcomputationssuggestthatorbitsbelowabout500kmand
closetotheequatorhaveradiationlevelssolowthatlittleornoradiationshieldingis
required[Globus2015a].Second,acarefulexaminationoftheliteraturesuggeststhat
permanentsettlerscantoleratemuchhigherrotationratesthanwascommonlythought,
allowingmuchsmallersettlementstoprovide1gartificialgravity[Globus2015b].

Betweenthesetwostudies,themassofearlyfreespacesettlementdesignscanbe
hundredsoftimeslessthanpreviouslybelievedandtheycanbelocatedhundredsoftimes
closertoEarth,vastlysimplifyingconstructionandlogistics.Furthermore,extraterrestrial
miningisnolongerrequiredtobuildthefirstsettlements.Also,thefirstspacesettlements
maybeverysimilartolarge,advancedspacehotels.Suchfacilities,inturn,maybe
developedincrementallyfromsmaller,lesssophisticatedhotelsandstationsstartingwiththe
ISS(InternationalSpaceStation),perhapsevenataprofit.Iftheresultsofthispaperare
confirmedbyfurtherresearch,aherculeantaskrequiringmonumentaleffortwillinstead
becomeadifficultbutsurmountableengineeringchallenge.

Acronyms

deltav changeinvelocity
g gravity,1gcorrespondstogravityatthesurfaceoftheEarth
ELEO EquatorialLowEarthOrbit
GCR GalacticCosmicRays
HEO HighEarthOrbit

1
ICRP InternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtection
ISS InternationalSpaceStation
kg kilogram
L2 LagrangePointTwo
L5 LagrangePointFive
LEO LowEarthOrbit
m meter
mGy milliGray
MPA megaPascal
mSv milliSievert
NEO NearEarthObject
rpm rotationsperminute
SSP SpaceSolarPower
T metricton

Introduction

Thispaperisabouttheveryfirststagesoflifesgrowththroughoutthesolarsystemand
beyond.Itisaboutaradicallyeasier,perhapstheeasiest,pathtothefirstspacesettlements.
Forthepurposeofthispaper,aspacesettlementisahomeinspacewherepeoplegoto
work,live,andperhapsraisetheirkids.Raisingchildrenonboarddistinguishesspace
settlementsfromspacestations,whereastronautsgotowork,andspacehotels,where
peoplegotoplay.

Inthe1970saseriesofstudiesatStanfordUniversityandNASAAmesResearchCenterled
byphysicistDr.GerardONeillofPrincetonUniversitysuggestedthefeasibilityofbuilding
andlivinginfreespacesettlementslocatedatL5[Johnson1975][ONeill1977].
Freespacesettlementsareessentiallygiganticspacecraftinorbit,bigenoughtolivein.L5
isapointontheMoonsorbitequidistantfromEarthandtheMoon.Thesestudiesproduced,
amongotherthings,theStanfordTorusdesign,astructurealmosttwokilometersacross,
rotatingat1rpm(rotationsperminute)toprovide1gartificialgravityattherim.

ThereisagreatdealofradiationinspacefromwhichsettlersinsidetheStanfordTorus
wouldbeprotectedbymillionsoftonsoflunarregolith.Thematerialwouldbeprovidedbya
lunarminingoperationinvolvinganelectromagneticcatapultontheMoonandacatcherat
L2.Progresstowardsthisdreamhasbeenslowinlargepartbecausethethesystemisso
large(kilometerscalewithamassofmillionsoftons)andrequiresanextensive
extraterrestrialindustrialbasetotakeadvantageoflunarorasteroidalmaterialsbeforethe
firstsettlercanmovein.Suchmaterialsarehundredsofthousandstomillionsofkilometers
awayfromEarth.

Buildingandoperatingsuchspacesettlementsisamassivechallenge,worthyofagreat
civilization.However,todateithasbeentoogreatachallengetoundertakewiththe
resourcesavailable.Instead,weproposeathreeprongedapproachtomakethefirstfew
settlementsmucheasiertodevelop:

2

1. Makethemclose.
2. Makethemsmall.
3. Buildupincrementally,ideallywithprofitateachstep.

Buildingthefirstsettlementsclosetohomemakeseverythingmucheasier.Forthepurpose
ofthispaper,closermeansEquatorialLowEarthOrbit(ELEO).EquatorialLowEarthOrbit
referstoorbitsclosetoEarthandatallpointsclosetotheequator1.Thisismuchcloser
thantheMoon,asteroidsorMars.A5002kmcircularorbitis760timesclosertoEarththan
theMoonorL5and100,000timescloserthanMarsatclosestapproach.Transportation
cost,timeandriskareaccordinglylower.UnhappysettlerscanreturntoEarth.Telephone
callsandvideoconferencescanworksincecommunicationdelaysareshort.Newsettlers
cangettotheirnewhomerelativelyeasily.Evacuationisatleasttheoreticallypossibleif
disasterstrikes.Theimportanceofdistanceishardtooverstate.

AkeybenefitofELEOsettlementisvastlyreducedradiationshielding.Themassofprevious
freespacesettlementdesignsisdominatedbyradiationshielding.Aswewillshow
computationally,settlementsinELEOmayneedverylittleornodedicatedradiationshielding
astheywillbeprotectedbytheEarthsmagneticfieldandthemassoftheEarthitself.
Eliminatingradiationshieldingreducesthemassofcylindricaldesignsbyafactorofabout
19andtoroidaldesignsbyafactorofabout155[Johnston1975](seeTable1).

1
Thisisaregionoffarlessradiationthanmostifnotallotherorbits,orthesurfaceofMarsorthe
Moon.
2
Anoteonnumbers:therearealotofquantitativeresultsinthispaper.Almostallofthemhavebeen
roundedoffasexcessiveaccuracyinthedatapresentedhereispointlessandmisleading.Thus,you
shouldexpecttofindmanysmall,nonconsequentialinaccuracies.
3

Stanford/NASAAmesMassEstimates

Massmodel
basedon1975
study allmassvaluesinmetrictons
factorbywhichthe
massisreducedwhen
radiationshieldingis
shape structure air shieldingmass notnecessary
multiple
dumbbells 75,000 37,000 9,900,000 89

multipletorus 100,000 10,400 9,700,000 89

bandedtorus 112,000 13,200 7,000,000 57

singletorus 4,600 1,900 1,000,000 155

cylinder 775,000 299,000 19,400,000 19

sphere 64,600 35,200 3,300,000 34

dumbbell 400 200 1,400,000 2,334

Table1:Massestimatesfrom[Johnson1975].Thefirstcolumnlistsvariousshapesa
settlementcouldhave.Thenextthreearetheestimatedstructural,airandradiation
shieldingmassintons.Thelastcolumnwasaddedbytheauthorstoindicatethefactorby
whichthemassisreducedwhenradiationshieldingisnotnecessary.

Thishugereductionintotalmasscompensatesforthegreaterenergeticdifficultyof
launchingmaterialsfromEarthtoELEOasopposedtolaunchingfromtheMoontoL5,the
designlocationoftheStanfordTorus.Intheearlystudies,theEarthMoonL5pointwas
chosenasthelocationofasettlementfortheenergeticadvantageoflaunchingmaterials
fromtheMoon.GoingfromtheMoontoL5requiresadeltav3of2.3km/sec,andgoingfrom
Earthto500kmELEOis10km/sec[Cassell2015].Usingthevelocitysquaredasour
energymeasure4,EarthtoELEOrequires19timesmoreenergyperunitmass.ButTable1
suggeststhatatleast19timeslessmassisneededifnoradiationshieldingisrequired.
Thus,theenergeticadvantagetolaunchingthemassofasettlementwithdeepspace
radiationshieldingfromtheMoontoL5isbalancedbylaunchingfarlessmassfromEarthif
noradiationshieldingisnecessary.

3
deltavischangeinvelocitynecessarytomovefromoneorbit(orsurface)toanother.
4
Onecouldalsousetherocketequationtomakethecomparison,butthatmakestheresultstrongly
dependentonISPandismuchmorecomplex.AthighISP(e.g.,LOX/H2)thedifferencecomparedto
theenergymeasureisnotgreat.
4
Makingthefirstsettlementssmalldirectlyreducestheconstructiondifficulty.Avillageis
easiertobuildthanacity.Thefasterasettlementrotates,thesmalleritcanbeandstill
provide1gofartificialgravityattherim,asneededforchildrentogrowupstrong.Aswewill
showfromanexaminationoftheliterature,settlerscanprobablytolerate4orperhapseven
6rpm.Forthepurposeofthispaperweassume,basedontheliterature,thatadiameterof
around112m(correspondingtorotationat4rpmfor1gofartificialgravity)isadequatefor
settlement,asopposedtothe1790m(1rpm)or450m(2rpm)diameterfoundinearlier
designs.Sincethemassofatorusorcylindershapedsettlementscalessomewhere
betweenthesquareandthecubeofthediameter,increasingthespinrateresultsinan
enormousreductioninthetotalamountofmaterialneeded.

Buildingupcapabilityincrementallyisatimehonoredengineeringtraditionbecauseitworks.
Forexample,the1969Moonlandingwasbuiltupinstages:

1. onemansuborbitalflight.
2. onemanorbitalflight.
3. twomanorbitalflight.
4. dockingandspacewalks.
5. threemanorbitalflight.
6. circumnavigationoftheMoon.
7. Thatsonesmallstepfor(a)man,onegiantleapformankind.

Similarly,weproposestartingwiththeInternationalSpaceStation(ISS),thenbuildingmore,
better,andlargerrevenuegeneratingspacestationsandhotelsovertimeuntilthesize
approximatesthatofa4rpmsettlement(112metersdiameter).Theeconomicsofspace
hotelsshouldencourageoperatorstodevelopthelifesupporttokeepthecrewandguests
breathing,drinkingandeatingwithminimalresupplyfromEarth.Eventually,buildingand
operatingthefirstspacesettlementmaynotbemuchmoredifficultthanbuildinganother
hotel.

Thispaperwillcompareslightlymodified5versionsoftwopublishedspacesettlement
designs,theStanfordTorus[Johnson1975],a1rpmdesign,andKaplanaOne[Globus
2007],a2rpmcylinder,withmodifiedversionshavingnoradiationshieldingandrotatingat3
or4rpm.MovingthesedesignstoELEO,makingthemassmallaswedare,andlaunching
allmaterialsfromEarthresultsinasystemmasstwoorthreeordersofmagnitudesmaller,
whichwillmakesuchdesignsmorepractical.

ATaleofTwoStudies
Ourapproachmayhaveachancetoworkbecausetworecentstudiesstronglysuggestthat
freespacesettlementsinELEOcanbefarlessmassivethanpreviouslythought.These
discoveriescombinedwithimprovementsinlaunchvehiclesnecessaryforanyspace
settlementtosucceed(seebelow)mayallowspacesettlementstobebuiltwithcomponents
launchedfromEarth.Thisvastlysimplifiestheconstructionandoperationofthefirstspace

5
Wewillassumemodernmaterialsandradiationshieldingrequirements,thusfocusingonthe
differencescausedbylocationinELEOandhigherrotationrates.
5
settlements.Wewillexaminethesestudiesingreaterdetailbelow,butfirstwetakeahigh
levellookattheresultsofeachstudyandtheimplicationsforearlysettlementsize.

ThefirstofthetwostudiesusedsophisticatedNASAradiationmodelingsoftware[OLTARIS
2011]toshowthatasettlementinELEObelowabout500kmrequireslittleornodedicated
radiationshielding[Globus2015a].TheEarthitselfandtheEarthsmagneticfieldprotect
thisareafrommostspaceradiation.Stayingclosetotheequatoravoidspassingthrough
theSouthAtlanticAnomalysoradiationlevelsaremuchlowerthanfortheISS.Asradiation
shieldingisthevastmajority(typicallyover95%)ofthemassofpreviousspacesettlement
designs,andtotalmassisafairlygoodproxyfordifficulty,placingsettlementsinELEO
makesconstructionofthefirstsettlementsmucheasier.

Figure1providessomeISSexperimentaldataonradiationlevelsinLEO.Noticethata
spacecraftinorbitneartheequatorwillonlyencounterblueonthemap,indicatinglow
radiationlevels.Wewillquantifytheselevelscomputationallybelow.

NASAISSRadiationMeasurements

Figure1:RadiationmeasurementstakenontheISS.Notethehighlevelsof
radiationovertheSouthAtlanticandmuchofSouthAmericaandverylowlevels
neartheequator.TheISSorbitisaround400km,somewhatbelowthealtitudeof
thecomputationaldatapresentedinthispaper.ImagecreditNASA.

6

Thesecondofthesestudiesexaminedtheliteratureonhumantoleranceofrotation[Globus
2015b].Rotationisusedinfreespacesettlementdesignstoprovidesomethingsimilarto
Earthnormalgravitytothesettlers.Intheearlierdesignsitwasassumedthatarotationrate
ofnomorethan2rpmisadvisableasrotationcanmakepeopleill.Limitingrotationto2rpm
meansthatthediameterofthesettlementmustbeatleast450mtoachieveEarthnormal
artificialgravity.Carefulexaminationoftheliteraturefindslittlebasisforthe2rpmlimit.In
fact,theliteraturesuggeststhat4rpm(andperhapsmore)isfineforsettlers,requiringonly
afewhourstoadayorsoofadaptation.Thus,a112mdiameterisacceptable(4timesless
thanKalpanaOneand16timeslessthantheStanfordTorus).

Notethatthemassofasettlementdesignroughlyscalesbytheinverseofthefourthtofifth
poweroftherotationrate.Thus,cuttingtherotationrateinhalfleadstoaroughly1632fold
reductioninmass,allelsebeingequal.Why?

Fromtheequationforcentripetalacceleration
a = 2 r
aisacceleration
israteofrotation
risradius

theradiusscalesastheinversesquareoftherotationrategivenconstantacceleration.The
massofasettlementscaleswiththeradiusasfollows:
Hullmassscalesasthecube
thesurfaceareascalesasthesquareand
therequiredstrengthofapressurevessel6scaleslinearly
theatmosphericmassscalesasthecube
thefurnishingsinthe1glivingareascaleasthesquare
Thus,thefurnishingmassscalesastheinversefourthpoweroftherotationrateand
everythingelsescalesastheinversefifthpoweroftherotationrate.

Combiningthemassreductionofeliminatingtheradiationshielding(19timesforKalpana
Oneand155timesforStanfordTorus,seeTable1)andincreasingrotationto4rpm(a
massreductionof1632timesforKalpanaOneand64128timesfortheStanfordTorus)we
getatotalmassreductionof30020,000times.Tochecktheseanalyticresults,wehave
builttwosimplemodelsofsettlementmass,oneforcylindersandanotherfortori.

ModelcomparisonsofthemassofsettlementssimilartoKalpanaOneandtheStanford
TorusatvariousrotationrateswithandwithoutradiationshieldingarefoundinTables2and
3,andareveryroughlyconsistentwiththeanalyticresults.Notethatthemodelsarenot
quitethesameastheoriginalKalpanaOneandStanfordTorustomakethecomparisons
withsmallerdesignssuitableforELEOmoredirect.Thisisparticularlynoticeableforthe
populationsize,whichisquiteabithigherthanintheoriginalpapers.Adescriptionofthe

6
Thesettlementmustholdanatmosphere!
7
modelsmaybefoundinAppendixBandthemodelsthemselvesat
http://space.alglobus.net/papers/EasyModel.xlxs.

KalpanaOne

Figure2:KalpanaOne.ImagecreditBryanVersteeg,usedbypermission.

8
KalpanaOneMassEstimates
Measure Shielding NoShielding NoShielding

rotation(rpm) 2 3 4

radius/height(m) 224 99 56

Hull(kT) 50 3 0.5

InternalStruct(kT) 63 12.4 4

Radiationshield(kT) 3,870 0 0

Nonstruct(kt) 54 10.9 3.4

Air(kt) 42 3.7 0.7

TotalMass(kT) 4,100 30 8.5

FalconHeavyLaunches7 77,000 560 160

Massratio 1 136 480

Population 7,850 1,550 490

Mass/person(T) 519 19 17

dragmass/area(T/m2) 22 0.809 0.732

deorbittime500km(years) NA 166 150

Table2:ThistableexaminestheeffectofmassandsizeasthemodifiedKalpanaOne
designincreasesrotationrate,reducingradius,andshedsitsradiationshielding.The
numbersinredarethereductioninmass.Flatendcapsareassumed.Thepopulationrow
assumes1gresidenceareaof40m2/person,roughlythefloorareaperpersonofasmallish
suburbanhouse.Orbitallifetimecalulations(lastrow)arebasedon[Panwar1999]as
implementedbytheSatelliteOrbitalDecaywebsite
http://www.lizardtail.com/isana/lab/orbital_decay/fora500kmcircularorbit.

7
TheFalconHeavyisalaunchvehicleunderdevelopmentbySpaceXwithaprojectedmaximum
payloadmasstoLEOof53tons.
9
TheoriginalKalpanaOnedesignwasa2rpmcylindricalsettlement.Thusthediameterwas
about450m.Theoriginalpaperhadacylinderheightof325mbutforthepurposeofthe
calculationsinthispaperthecylinderheightisequaltotheradius.Table2suggeststhatif
weshrinkKalpanaOnedownto112mdiameter(4rpm)andeliminatetheradiation
shieldingbyplacingitinELEO,thetotalmassofthesystemisreducedbyafactorofabout
480,consistentwithouranalyticresults.Thepopulationisalsoreduced,byafactorofabout
16.Reductionsareevenlargerifwegoto6rpmbutitisnotatallclearthata50mdiameter
homecanbeaviablesettlement.Indeed,nowthatitseemshigherrotationratesare
possible,theminimumsizeofasettlementisprobablydeterminedbyotherfactors,perhaps
psychologicalorsocialissues.Thisisanareathatneedsinvestigation.

ThelasttworowsofTable2(andTable3)addressamajorsafetyissuewithlargeLEO
satellites.Iftheyareabandonedtheywilleventuallyentertheatmosphereandmayimpact
theground.Weseethatthetimetodeorbit,evenifanELEOsettlementiscompletely
abandoned,issolong(over166yearsforacylinder)thatanyreasonablycapable
spacefaringcivilizationcaneasilyaddressthethreat.Thus,theonlyrealisticsituationin
whichanELEOsettlementwouldentertheatmosphereisifourcivilizationcollapses
completely.Inthiscase,spacesettlementsfallingtoEarthsomewherealongtheequator
willbetheleastofourworries.

StanfordTorus

Figure3:StanfordTorus,imagecreditNASA.

10

StanfordTorusMassEstimates
Measure Shielding Noshielding Noshielding
Rotation(rpm) 1 3 4
Outerradius(m) 895 99 56
Innerradius(m) 65 10 7
Hull(kT) 67 0.228 0.08
InternalStructure(kT) 145 2.5 0.98
RadiationShield(kT) 12,740 0 0
Nonstructure(kT) 127 2.1 0.86
Air(kT) 82 0.2 0.06
TotalMass(kT) 13,300 5.1 2.0
FalconHeavyLaunches 250,000 96 38
Massratio 1 2,600 6,650

Mass/person(T) 725 16.5 16.3

Population 18,000 310 123

dragmass/area(T/m2) 15 0.325 0.311

deorbittime500km(years) NA 67 63
Table3:ThistableexaminestheeffectofmassandsizeasthemodifiedStanfordTorus
designincreasesrotationrate,reducingradius,andshedsitsradiationshielding.The
numbersinredarethereductioninmass.Thepopulationrowassumes40m2/personfora
residence.Orbitallifetimecalulations(lastrow)arebasedon[Panwar1999]asimplemented
bytheSatelliteOrbitalDecaywebsitehttp://www.lizardtail.com/isana/lab/orbital_decay/for
a500kmcircularorbit.

TheStanfordTorusisa1rpmtoroidaldesignwitha130minnerdiameter(65minner
radius).Theinnerdiametersforthehigherrpmcalculationsareless.Becauseweare
startingat1rpm(KalpanaOnewas2rpm)andbecauseatorusneedsmuchmoreradiation
shieldingforthesamediameterandheightthemassreductionisenormous.Notethatthe
totalmassofthe4rpmversioncouldbelaunchedfromEarthwithabout40FalconHeavy
vehicles.

Wewillexaminetheresultsoftheradiationandrotationstudiesthatdrivethisenormous
improvementintheeaseofbuildingthefirstspacesettlementsmorecarefully.Butfirstwe
mustexplainwhyELEOisaneasiertargetforearlysettlementthattheMoonorMars.

11
TheMoonandMars
WeknowempiricallythattheMoonandMarswilllikelybemuchhardertosettlethanELEO
becauseofourexperiencewithspacestations.ThefirstspacestationswentintoLEOinthe
1970s.TheISSisuptherenow(Fallof2015)andhasbeencontinuouslyinhabitedsince
Octoberof2000.NostationshavebeenbuiltontheMoonorMarsnotbecausenoone
wantsthem,butbecausetheyaremuchhardertoaccessthanLEO.Thisisprimarily
becauseaLEOorbit(assuming500km)isabout760xclosertoEarththantheMoonand
100,000xcloserthanMarsatclosestapproach.Thisisamassivelogisticaladvantagefor
LEO.

NotethatthereareatleastthreerelevantwaystocomparethedifficultyoftravelfromEarth
toplacesinspace:distance,deltav,andtime.Table4providesthesefortheplacesof
interestinthispaper.Thesquareofthedeltavistheenergynecessarytochangelocation
whichcorrelateswiththeamountoffuelnecessary.Deltavappearsintheexponentofthe
rocketequationandsohasanenormouseffectonfuelrequirements,althoughthiscanbe
reducedwithfueldepots.Timeisimportantifonlybecauseitlimitsthenumberoftripsa
singlereusablevehiclecanmake.

GettingToandFromELEOisRelativelyEasy
distance(km) deltav(km/sec) timeoneway

ELEO 500 10 hours

L5 382,000 14.1 3days

Moon 382,000 16.4 3days

Mars(atclosestapproach) 54,600,000 20.2 260days

Table4:distancebetweentheEarthandpotentialsettlementlocationsbydifferent
measures.TheMarsdistanceactuallyvariesagreatdealovertime.Herewelistthe
distanceatclosestapproach.Deltavreferstothechangeinvelocitynecessarytomove
fromoneorbittoanother(orasurface).Thetimesareforcurrentorneartermtechnology.
Allfiguresareapproximate.

TheMoonandMarsalsohaveabigproblemforearlysettlers.Childrenraisedtherewill
almostcertainlyhaveveryweakbonesandmuscles,andpossiblyotherasyetunknown
maladies.ThisisbecauseMarsandtheMoonhaveasurfacegravitymuchlessthanEarth
normal(1g).Thelunarsurfaceisatroughly1/6gandMarsabout3/8g.Musclesandbones
developinresponsetostress,andchildrenraisedinlowgcannotbeexpectedtobestrong
enoughtovisitEarthexceptinextremis,orperhapsafteranincrediblyvigorousexercise
program.Consideranindividualwhoweighs73kg(160pounds).Iftheywenttoa2.7g
planet,theequivalentofmovingfromMarstoEarth,theywouldweigh194kg(about420
pounds)andprobablycouldnotgetoutofbedwithoutassistance.

12
ForchildrenraisedontheMoonorMars,attendingcollegeonEarth,competinginthe
OlympicsorperformingatCarnegieHallwillbeeitherextremelydifficultorimpossible.By
contrast,freespacesettlementscanrotatetoprovideartificialgravityatwhateverlevel
desired.Althoughthisisnottruegravityitwillloadchildrensbonesandmusclesandthereis
everyreasontobelievetheywillgrowupstrongenoughtoreturntoEarthforavisitoreven
tolive.Spacesettlementdoesnothavetobeaonewaypermanentcommitmentforthe
settlersortheirchildren.

MarsandtheMoondohaveamplesuppliesofeasilyaccessiblebulkmaterialsforradiation
shieldingandotherpurposes.Manytonsofmaterialpersquaremetercanbeusedtobury
livingmodulestoprovideareasonableradiationenvironment,butsuchprotectionisnot
neededinELEO.So,forearlysettlementthetotalmassofanELEOsettlementlaunched
fromEarthisroughlycomparabletothemassofasimilarlysizedsurfacesettlement.This
willonlychangewhenspacemining,processing,fabricationandtransportsufficienttobuild
themoremassivesettlementcomponents(e.g.,pressurizedmodules)canbedeveloped.

StructurescanbealittlelessmassiveontheMoonandMarsastheyarenotexposedtoa
full1g.Also,oxygenforbreathingcanbeextractedfromtheMartianatmospherefairly
easily.However,powersystemsontheMoonandMarswilllikelybemoremassivethanat
ELEO.AlotofstorageisneededforthetwoweeklunarnightandsolarenergyatMarsis
morethantwiceasdiffusethanatEarthorbit.Therearealsolongdurationduststorms.
NuclearpowerispossiblebutmeanssettlementswouldbeEarthdependentforenergy.
Tradingawayinsituenergytogaininsitumaterialsmaynotbeadvantageousasmaterials
canberecycledbutenergycannot.

Thus,radiationshieldingbeingunnecessaryinELEOeliminatesmuch,althoughnotquite
all,ofthematerialsadvantagetheMoonandMarsprovidesfortheearliestspace
settlements.TheresidualadvantagesmaywellbeswampedbythefactthatELEOis760
timescloserthantheMoonand100,000closerthanMarstotheindustrialmightofEarth.

Finally,ifhumanitywantstogrowandsurviveovertheverylongterm,acivilizationbasedon
freespacesettlementshasalargeadvantageoveroneonplanetarybodiesandmoons.If
humanityweretocompletelysettletheMoonandMarswewouldbespreadoutoverthree
locationandwouldroughlydoubleourlivingarea.Ifwebuildfreespacesettlements
coorbitingwithasteroids,thereisenoughmaterialforlivingareaofroughly400timesthe
surfaceareaofEarthspreadoutamongperhapsahundredmillionsettlements.
Furthermore,freespacesettlementsmakeexcellentgenerationshipsfortravelingtonearby
stars,andonarrivaldonotneedaplanet,justsomespacejunk.IfyouranswertoKyle
ReesesimperativethatintroducedthispaperisIdo,thenfreespacesettlementsarefor
you.

WenowexamineinmoredetailthetwostudiesthatsuggestthatsmallELEOspace
settlementsmaybetheeasiestpathtoearlyspacesettlement.

13
StudyOne:RadiationProtection
Thissectionisabriefsummaryoftheresultsreportedin[Globus2015a],wheremoredetail
andreferencesmaybefound.Thisstudyisbasedonaseriesofradiationcalculationsusing
OLTARIS,NASAswebfrontendtotheirverysophisticatedradiationcodes[OLTARIS2011,
OLTARIS2014].ThesecalculationssuggestthatinELEObelowabout500kmlittleorno
dedicatedradiationshieldingisnecessary.Thisreducesthemassofsettlementdesignsby
atleastafactorof19,whichhelpsmakethemsmall.ELEOisalsomuchcloserthan
previouslyproposedsettlementlocals(Moon,Mars,andL5).

Spaceresidentswillbeexposedtosignificantlymoreradiationthanmost,althoughnotall,
peopleonEarth.Thisradiationcanbekeptawayfromsettlersbymassiveamountsof
radiationshielding,butplacingsettlementsinELEOtakesadvantageoftheEarthsmagnetic
fieldwhichwouldpreventmanychargedparticlesfromreachingasettlement.

MostradiationinELEO,particularlytheprotonsandelectrons,canbestoppedbyminimal
shielding,suchasthestructuralhullofasettlement.Mostoftheseprotonsandelectrons
aretrappedbythevanAllenbelts.Onveryrareoccasionsthereareseveresolarstorms,
consistingmostlyofprotons,thatmayrequiresubstantialadditionalshieldingforafewhours
ordays.Furtherresearchisnecessarytoevaluatetheneedforsolarstormsheltersin
ELEO,whichwillnotbeaddressedhere.However,ifsettlementsfeaturelowgswimming
poolswrappingaroundtheaxisofrotationthepopulationcouldperhapssimplygoswimming
duringstormsaswaterisanexcellentradiationshieldingmaterial.

ThemostdangerousELEOradiationcomesfromGalacticCosmicRays(GCR).GCR
consistsofallkindsofparticlesatawidevarietyofenergies,butmostofthelightweight,low
energyparticlesaredivertedbytheEarthsmagneticfieldleavingonlyheavy(e.g.,iron)high
speedparticlestothreatenELEOsettlements.Theseareataverylowlevel,butarevery
difficulttostopandcomefromeverydirection.Furthermore,smallamountsofshieldingcan
increasethedamagefromGCRwhenhighenergyparticlescollidewithnucleiinthe
shieldinggeneratingashowerofsecondaryparticles.

Todeterminetheamountofshieldingnecessaryonemustchooseanacceptablelevelof
radiation.Foradults[Globus2015a]chose20mSv8/yearbecausethatistheoccupational
thresholdfornuclearworkersrecommendedbytheInternationalCommissionon
RadiologicalProtection(ICRP)[Wrixon2008]andtheleveltheJapanesegovernmentsets
forreturntohomesevacuatedaftertheFukushimanuclearpowerplantdisaster[McKirdy
2014].AlthoughtheaveragebackgroundradiationintheU.S.isonly3.1mSv/year[Linnea
2010,NRC2010],thisisanaverageandinmanyareaslevelsarehigher.InEurope,large
partsofSpainandFinlandexperiencemorethan10mSv/year[WorldNuclearAssociation
2014]andinafewpartsoftheworld,notablyinIran,backgroundradiationisfarabove20
mSv/year[Ghiassinej2002]withnoapparentnegativeeffect.Thus,20mSv/yearseemsa
reasonableandconservativerequirementgivencurrentknowledge.

8
TheSievertisameasureofthebiologicaldamagecausedbyradiation.mSvstandsformilliSievert,
oneonethousandthsofaSievert.ThemSviscalculatedfromtheincidentradiation,measuredin
Grays,weightedbythekindofradiationandthetypeoftissueaffected.
14

However,therewillbechildrenandpregnantwomenonspacesettlementsandaradiation
thresholdsuitableforadultsmaynotbesufficient.Theembryoandfetusareknowntobe
particularlysusceptibletoradiationdamage.AcarefulstudyoftheICRPstudiesonradiation
andpregnancysuggeststhat5mGy9/pregnancy,theequivalentof6.6mGy/year,maybea
reasonablelimit[Wrixon2008][Valentin2000][Valentin2003].Thereappearstobenodata
tosuggestthatthislevelwillcausedamage,butthedataarenotverycomplete.For
example,forthefetusandembryothereisnoacceptedapproachtoconvertingradiationof
varioustypesmeasuredinmGytobiologicaleffectiveness,measuredinmSv,duetolackof
knowledgeandthefactthatradiationdamageismuchgreaterincertaintimewindowsthan
others,basedondatafromJapanesenuclearbombvictims.

Thereisonemajorcaveattothe20mSv/year6.6mGy/yearthresholdsadoptedhere:there
isverylittledataontheeffectsofhighenergyGCRatall,andthatdataisformuchhigher
levelsperunittime.Mostofthedataunderlyingtheabovethresholdscomesfromatomic
bombsurvivors,pregnantwomenreceivingXrays,andanimalsexposedtohighenergy
particlesinaccelerators,particularlytheBrookhavenNationalLaboratory/NASASpace
RadiationLaboratory.TheatomicbombsurvivorsandpregnantwomenreceivingXrays
wereexposedtovastlyhigherradiationlevelsforaveryshortperiodsoftimeandthe
radiationwasnotthatcharacteristicofGCR.Althoughhighenergyironandotherheavy
nucleicanbeandaregeneratedinacceleratorsforanimalexperiments,forpractical
reasons,includingcost,itisdifficulttorunexperimentsinanacceleratorforlongperiodsof
timeatlowradiationlevels,forexamplethe20orsodaysneededforrodentgestation
studies.Forthisreason,experimentalprotocolsinvolvemuchhigherdoseratesforvery
shortperiodsoftime.

Thereisevidence,primarilyfromrodentexperiments,thatwhentotalradiationexposureis
thesame,animalsexposedtohighintensityforshortperiodsoftimeexperiencemuchmore
damagethanwhenexposedtolowerintensityforlongerperiods.Thus,thereisatleast
somereasontobelievethatourthresholdsareconservative,i.e.,couldbemadehigher
withoutmuchilleffect.

WenowexaminethecomputationalresultsthatsuggestthatELEOsettlementswillrequire
littleornodedicatedradiationshielding.Allofthesedataarebasedonasetof
computationsperformedwithOLTARIS.Allcalculationsweredoneusingthe(simulated)
1977SolarMinimumradiationlevels.SinceGCRlevelsnearEarthtendtobehigherduring
solarminimaastheSunsmagneticfieldisweaker,theseresultsareconservative,i.e.,they
reporthigherradiationlevelsthanareusuallyseen.However,therehavebeensome
periodsofevenlowersolaractivity.Thiswillnotmattermuchforadultswherethethreshold
isbasedonexposureovermanyyearsorevendecades,butmaybeissuefortiming
pregnancies,i.e.,itmightbewisetoavoidbeingpregnantnearsolarminima.

9
TheGrayisameasureofradiation.AmGyisoneonethousandthsofaGray.
15


RadiationShieldinginDeepSpace

Largeamountsofmasscanbeusedtobringradiationlevelsinsideaspacesettlementdown
toacceptablelevels.Table5showscomputationaldataforpolyethylene10,waterandlunar
regolithshieldingindeepspace,withoutassistancefromEarthsmagneticfield.
Polyethyleneisanexcellentradiationshieldingmaterial,readilyavailable,slightlymore
effectivethanwaterandmuchbetterthanlunarregolith.Abitoversixtonsofpolyethylene
foreverysquaremeterofhullisneededtoachieveourthresholds.Thisisamassive
amountofmaterialforasettlementofanysignificantsize.

RadiationShieldingRequiredAbovetheRadiationBelts
polyethylene water lunarregolith
tons/m2 mSv/yr mGy/yr mSv/yr mGy/yr mSv/yr mGy/yr
1 193 85 199 86 274 109
2 136 52 146 54 261 82
3 90 31 100 34 221 62
4 57 18.5 66 21 172 48
5 35 10.8 42 12.5 126 37
6 20.9 6.3 26.3 7.5 89 28
7 12.2 3.6 16 4.4 61 20.9

8 40 15.1

9 26.1 10.5

10 16.6 7.1

Table5:Comparisonofshieldingmaterialsindeepspace.Therows
indicateyearlyradiationlevelsatagivenshieldingmass.Thefirst
columnliststonsofshieldingpersquaremeter,theothercolumnslist
differentmaterialsandmeasures.ThemGycolumnsarea
(computational)measureofradiationtakeninsideshielding,themSv
columnsareradiationabsorbedbyhumanovaries11.Theredcolor
indicatesthatvaluesarelessthan20mSv/yearor6.6mGy/year.Note
thatpolyethyleneisabitmoreeffectivethanwater,andbotharemuch
moreeffectivethanlunarregolith.AllvaluesarecalculatedbyOLTARIS.

10
Polyethyleneismadeupoflongcarbonchainseachwithtwohydrogens,exceptattheends.
11
Exposureofovariesareusedherebecauseofallhumantissuetheymaybeamongthemost
susceptibletoradiationdamage.
16
Noticethattheradiationlevelsaremonotonic,i.e.,theyalwaysdecreasewithgreater
shielding.Thisisbecausetheshieldismassive,thesmallestamountbeingatonpersquare
meter,somostsecondaryradiationisabsorbed.

RadiationinELEO
Table6presentscomputationaldatafora500kmcircularELEOusingpolyethylene
shielding.Noticethatevenat10kg/m2shielding,theequivalentofwhichisverylikelytobe
providedbyanyreasonablehull,the20mSv/yrand6.6mGy/yraremet.Indeed,withno
shieldingatalltheadultthresholdismetandthepregnancythresholdisverynearlymet.
Thishasaninterestingconsequence:spacewalksinELEOmaybesafeenoughfroma
radiationpointofviewtobeasignificantrecreationalactivity.Thisisinstarkcontrasttothe
surfaceoftheMoonandMarswhereradiationlevelswithnoshieldingarequiteabithigher
thanELEO(about510x),meaningwalksaroundthesurfacemustbelimited.

Notice,however,thatunlikeTable5theradiationlevelsarenotmonotonic,theysometimes
increasewithincreasedshielding.Thisisprimarilyduetosecondaryradiationgeneratedby
highenergyheavyGCR.However,thecalculatedradiationlevelsneverexceedour
thresholdsathighershieldinglevels.

RadiationShieldingRequirementsinELEO
tons/m2 mSv/yr mGy/yr

~0 16.7 10.2

0.01 16.3 3.6

0.025 15.6 3.7

0.05 14.6 3.9

0.075 13.9 4

0.1 13.3 4

0.15 12.5 4.1

0.2 11.9 4.2

0.25 11.6 4.3

0.5 12 4.6

0.75 12.8 4.8

1 13.3 4.9

17
 1.25 13.7 5

1.5 13.8 4.9

1.75 13.7 4.8

2 13.5 4.7

Table6:Yearlyradiationlevelscalculatedforcircularequatorialorbitsat
500kmaltitude.Therowsarefortonsofpolyethyleneshieldingwiththe
exceptionofthefirstrowwhichcalculatedtheradiationforonemillionthofa
gramoflunarregolithasastandinfornoshieldingatall(OLTARIScannot
calculatezeroshieldinglevels).Redindicatesthatthelevelmeetsthe20
mSv/yearlimitorthe6.6mGy/yearlimitforpregnantwomen.Allcalculations
byOLTARIS.

RadiationinNonequatorialLEO
Table7illustratestheimportanceofELEO(equatorialorbits)asopposedtothemost
commonlyusedLEOorbitsathigherinclination.Noticetherapidriseinradiationasthe
inclinationincreases.NotethattheISSisina51.6oinclinationorbit.

RadiationShieldingRequirementsatDifferentInclinations
Mass 0 15 30 45 60 75 90
2
(tons/m ) (mSv/yr) (mSv/yr) (mSv/yr) (mSv/yr) (mSv/yr) (mSv/yr) (mSv/yr)
0.25 14.6 262.8 636.0 424.1 345.0 335.5 334.0
0.5 12.1 112.1 253.5 178.2 164.0 168.7 170.3
1 13.2 43.4 88.7 79.1 90.3 100.2 102.7
2 14.0 21.6 36.7 45.5 58.9 66.4 68.3
3 12.6 16.4 25.1 33.2 42.4 47.1 48.3
4 10.3 12.3 17.6 23.5 29.4 32.2 32.9
5 7.9 8.9 12.1 16.1 19.6 21.3 21.7
6 5.7 6.3 8.2 10.7 12.7 13.7 13.9
Table7.Thisshowstheeffectofinclinationandshieldingonradiationlevels.Therows
indicatetheamountofradiationinsideasettlementwiththegivenamountofwater
shielding.Thecolumnscorrespondtodifferentorbitalinclinationsata600kmaltitude.
Redindicatesthatthelevelmeetsour20mSv/yearthresholdforadults.Thelevels
reportedhereareforhumantissueingeneral,nothumanovariesasintheothertables.
Thus,thelevelsarenotdirectlycomparabletoothertablesinthispaperbutthe
differencesaresmall.AllcalculationsbyOLTARIS.

Radiationlevelsforequatorialorbitsarelowbecausetheseorbitsdonotpassthrough
theSouthAtlanticAnomaly,aregionofhighradiationovertheSouthAtlanticandSouth

18
America.Figure1providessomeexperimentaldataonradiationlevelsinLEOwhich
wewillrepeathereasFigure4foryourconvenience.

Figure4:RadiationmeasurementstakenontheISS.Notethehighlevelsof
radiationovertheSouthAtlanticandmuchofSouthAmericaandverylowlevels
neartheequator.Theselowlevelsarewellbelowour6.6mGy/yrthreshold,but
theISSorbitisaround400km,somewhatbelowthealtitudeofthecomputational
datapresentedinthepaper.ImagecreditNASA.

Thus,itappearsthatwecanliveinspacesettlementsinELEObelowabout500km,and
perhapsabithigher,withnodedicatedradiationshielding,asthestructure,solararrays,
micrometeorshieldsandsofortharelikelytoprovidethesmallamountofshieldingneeded.
However,asmentionedabovetherearecaveats:
Thethresholdschosenmaynotprovideacceptableprotection.Indeed,itisnotclear
whatacceptableprotectionis.Thepregnancythresholdrestsonparticularlyweak
ground.
Theradiationcodesusedarebasedondatathatmaynotbesufficientlyapplicable.
Verylittleoftheexperimentaldataregardingbiologicaleffectreflectsthe
characteristicsofGCRandwhatlittleisavailableisatmuch,muchhigherdoserates.
Fortunately,thislastfactmeansourresultsareprobablyconservative,i.e.,thatthe
radiationenvironmentmaybelessdetrimentalthanwethink.

19
RadiationResultsRiskReduction
ToretiretheseriskswillrequiresignificantstudyoforganismsexposedtolowlevelsofGCR
forlongperiodsoftime.Atthemomentthereappearstobenowaytodothisontheground
asverylongstudiesareimpractical.ItmaybeenoughtostudyradiationlevelsontheISS,
buttheenvironmentisnotideal.RadiationlevelsaremuchhigherastheISSpassesthrough
theSouthAtlanticAnomaly,andformostofofthetimeGCRislowerastheISSisgenerally
ataloweraltitude(around400km),deeperintheEarthsmagneticfieldandbetterprotected
bytheEarthitself.Also,atpresenttheISShasnocentrifugecapableofmaintaining1gfor
rodentssotheeffectsofweightlessness,whicharesignificant,wouldmaskradiationinduced
changes.

ParticleacceleratorsonthegroundsuchastheBrookhavenNationalLaboratorycan
generatehighenergyironparticlesverysimilartothepartofGCRofconcern.Indeed,these
facilitiesareroutinelyusedtostudyspaceradiationeffectsontissueandanimals,including
rodents.However,theseacceleratorsareexpensive,$7,000/hourinthiscase,andlong
termstudiesarelogisticallydifficult.Experimentalprotocolsusuallyinvolveexposing
subjectstothesametotalquantityofradiationexpectedon,forexample,atriptoMars,ina
veryshortperiodoftime,thenassumingthatthiswillhaveasimilareffect.Unfortunately,
thereislittleifanyevidencethattheywillhavethesameeffectandsomeevidencetothe
contrary.Insomerodentexperiments,animalsexposedtoalittleradiationprecedinga
largerdosehadfewernegativeconsequencesthananimalsexposedonlytothelargerdose
[Valentine2003,paragraph424].

ToreallyexploretheradiationeffectsatELEOaspacestationinsuchanorbitisnecessary
toexposesubjectstoexactlythetargetradiationenvironment.Suchafacilitymusteither
housecentrifugestoexposetestsubjectsto1gortheentirefacilitymustrotate.Thislast
optionislikelymoreexpensivetobuildbutstaffcanstayforlongertoursastheywillnotbe
exposedtoweightlessnessforlongperiodsoftime.Thestationcanberelativelysmall,25m
radiusormaybeless,asweshallseeinthenextsection.Furthermore,datatakenfromthe
staffthemselveswillbemoremeaningfulifthefacilityrotates.Thefacilitymuststudy
differenttypesoforganisms,uptoatleastrodents,throughmultiplelifecyclestothrowlight
onnegativeradiationeffectsonpregnantmammals.

Itshouldbenotedthatthenegativeeffectsofspaceradiationmaybecometreatableby
medicaladvancesinthedecadesbetweennowandtheconstructionofthefirstsettlements.
Forexample,radiationcaninducecataractsbutaffectedeyescanberepairedbymodern
surgicaltechniques.

HavingexaminedthebeneficialradiationeffectoflocatingsettlementsinELEO,wenowturn
ourattentiontotherotationrateinanattempttoreducetheminimumsizeofaviable
settlement.

20


StudyTwo:RotationTolerance

Thissectionisabriefsummaryoftheresultsreportedin[Globus2015b]wheremoredetail
andreferencesmaybefound.Thisstudyexaminedtheliteratureonhumanrotation
toleranceandfoundthatsettlementresidentscaneasilytolerateupto4rpm,and6rpmis
probablyacceptable.Attheserates,visitorsmayexperiencediscomfortandnauseafora
fewhoursoradayortwoafterarrival,butthisisofminorconsequencetosettlers.However,
at6rpmveryshorttermvisitors(e.g.,familyvisitingforaweekend)mayspendmuchoftheir
visitfeelingill.

Increasingtherotationratereducestheradiusofaspinningsettlementtoachieve1g
artificialgravityandreducesthesizeandmassofasettlement.Forexample,doublingthe
rotationratereducestheradiusby4times.Thus,ifotherfactors,suchaspsychological
and/orsociologicalissues,allowforsmallersettlementsincreasingtherotationratecan
reducesizeandeaseconstructiondifficulty.

Table8showsdiametervsrotationratetoachieve1g:

RotationRateandDiameter
Rate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(rpm)

Diameter 1790 448 200 112 72 50 38 28 22 18

(m)
Table8:Rotationrateanddiameterrequiredtoproduce1gofartificialgravityattherimofa
spacesettlement.Noticethatthediameterdropsrapidlywithincreasingrpmandflattensout
becausethediameterscaleswiththesquareoftherotationrate.

Rotatingspacesettlementscanprovideartificialgravitytotheresidentsandavoidawide
rangeofnegativeeffectsofexposuretomicrogravity.Thesenegativeeffectsincludefluid
redistribution,fluidloss,electrolyteimbalances,cardiovascularchanges,redbloodcellloss,
muscledamage,bonedamage,hypercalcemia,immunesystemchangesandaging,
vertigoandspatialdisorientation,spaceadaptationsyndrome,lossofexercisecapacity,
degradedvision,degradedsmellandtaste,weightloss,flatulence,changesinpostureand
stature,andchangesincoordination.

Variouscountermeasureshavebeentriedtoaddressmicrogravitysymptomsinapiecemeal
fashion,butthesedonotresolvemostoftheissuesandoftenhavenegativeeffects
themselves.Rotationaddressestheunderlyingproblemthatwehaveevolvedtolive
experiencing1gaccelerationnearlyallthetime.Artificialgravitybyrotationistheonly
practicalcountermeasurethatgetsattheunderlyingcause.

21
Experimentswithartificialgravityonsmallanimalsandcellcultureshaveyielded
encouragingresults.IntheSovietsatelliteCosmos936in1977,thelifespanofratsexposed
tocentrifugationwassignificantlygreaterthanthatofnoncentrifugedcontrolanimals
[Connors1985].InSpacelabD1in1985,experimentsshowedthatTcellfunctionwhich
isseverelyhamperedinmicrogravityispreservedinartificialgravityviacentrifugation
[Diamandis1987].

However,rotationitselfhasnegativeeffects.Theseincludemotionsickness,movement
errors,throwingerrorsandillusions.Motionsicknessisbyfarthemostseriousforspace
settlement.Inexperiments,andlife,rotationcancausefatigue,stomachawareness,nausea
andevenvomiting.Theeffectsvaryagreatdealfrompersontopersonandareincreased
byfasterrotation,smallerradiiofrotationandhighglevel.Itispossibletotrainpeopleto
reducethesymptoms.

Thespacesettlementrotationraterecommendationsof[Globus2015b]are:

Upto2rpmshouldbenoproblemforresidentsandrequirelittleadaptationby
visitors.
Upto4rpmshouldbenoproblemforresidentsbutwillrequiresometrainingand/or
afewhourstoperhapsadayortwoofadaptationbyvisitors.
Upto6rpmisunlikelytobeaproblemforresidentsbutmayrequireextensivevisitor
trainingand/oradaptationoverafewdays.Someparticularlysusceptibleindividuals
mayhaveagreatdealofdifficulty.
Upto10rpmadaptationhasbeenachievedwithspecifictraining.However,the
diameterofasettlementattheserotationratesissosmall(under~40mforseven
rpm)itshardtoimagineanyonewantingtolivetherepermanently,muchlessraise
children.Rotationathighrates,however,maybeusefulforadedicatedradiation
studystationinELEO.

Notethattherearetwoclassesofpeoplethatmustbeaccommodated:residentsand
visitors.Forresidentsafewdaysoffeelingillatthebeginningofamultiyearstayisoflittle
concern.However,ifasettlementexpectsmanyshorttermvisitorsitmaybebesttokeep
therotationrateunderabout4rpm.

Muchofthedataonthenegativeeffectsofrotationwasgatheredinrotatingrooms,
experimentalfacilitieswheresubjectscouldbeexposedtorotationonthegroundfordaysor
evenweeks.ManyofthesestudieswereconductedinafacilityincludingthePensacola
SlowRotationRoomleadbyDr.Graybiel.

In1960Graybielpublishedapaper[Graybiel1960]thatisagoodexampleofthedata
behindourrecommendationsforspacesettlementdesign.Inthisparticularstudytherewere
fiveregularsubjectsandonedeafsubjectwhohadlostotolith12function.Thedeafsubject
hadnomotionsicknesssymptomsatanytime,suggestingthatotolithresponseisthedriver

12
Theotolithorgansarestructuresintheinnerearthataresensitivetogravityandacceleration.
22
inrotationtolerance.Subjectsweretestedintwodayrunsatfiverotationrates.Theywere
givenanumberofteststocomplete,buttherewasnoadaptationprocedure.

Theresultsofthisstudymaybesummarized:
1. 1.71rpm:verymildsymptoms.
2. 2.2rpm:onesubjectthrewup(hehadahistoryofseasickness)butotherwise
similarto1.71rpm.
3. 3.82rpm:mildsymptomsandsubjectsadaptedwithinadayadaptationwas
longerforthelessresistantsubject.
4. 5.44rpm:highlystressful(exceptforthedeafsubject)butmostadaptedina
dayorso.Subjectswithpriorrotationexperiencedidbetterthanthose
without.
5. 10rpm:highlystressful(exceptforthedeafsubject)subjectscouldnot
completealltasks.Therewassomeadaptationoverthetwodayrun.

Notethattheseareveryclosetoourrecommendations.Therearemanyotherstudieswith
moreorlesssimilarresults.

Atleastfiveauthorshavesurveyedtheliteratureandcometoconclusionssimilar,butnot
exactly,toours.TheresultsofthesestudiesaresummarizedinFigure5.

23

Figure5.Notethatweareonlyconcernedwiththe1gline.Greenindicates
allauthorsagreethisrotationenvironmentisacceptable.Redmeansno
authorsthoughtso.Intermediatecolorsindicatedisagreementbetweenthe
authors[Globus2015b].

Noneoftheseauthorswerelookingatsettlementrelatedissues,butratherconsidering
rotatingspacecraftformuchshorterperiodsoftimeforexample,onatriptoMars.Note
thatmostauthorsagreewithouranalysisthat4rpmisacceptable,althoughthereisless
agreementat6rpm.

Therearesomecaveatstotheseresults.Firstarefactorswhichmightmakeourresults
moreorlessoptimistic.Thesestudies

1. haveveryfewsubjects,usually10orless.
2. showgreatvariabilityinrotationtolerancefrompersontoperson.
3. sometimeschosesubjectsforhigherthannormalrotationtolerance.
4. haveonlyadultsubjects.
5. areonlyafewweeksorlessinduration.

24
However,thereissomereasontobelievethegroundbasedexperimentalresultsare
pessimisticforspace,particularlysettlement,applications:

1. theexperimentswereconductedwithveryshortrotationradii,usuallyunder3m,and
shorterrotationradiigenerallyleadstomoreseveresymptoms.
2. atleastoneveryencouragingexperimentstronglysuggeststhatinorbitnegative
rotationeffectsmaybemuchlessthanonEarth.

Inthe1970s,SKYLABexperimentswitharotatingchairtookdatabefore,during,andafter
flight.Eightcrewmembersparticipated.Nausealevelsweremeasured.Allsubjects
experiencedmuchlessnauseainmicrogravity,asopposedtopreandpostflightin1g.On
thegroundmanyofthesubjectscouldnotcompletethe150prescribedheadmotions,butin
orbitalldidwithfewor,inmostcases,nosymptoms[Graybiel1977].Similarresultshave
beenobtainedinparabolicaircraftflight.

Theliteratureindicatesthathighrotationratespacesettlementswillbeuncomfortablefor
peoplewhentheyfirstarrive,justasarrivinginahighaltitudecitycanbeuncomfortable.
However,withinafewhoursordayswecanexpectsymptomstopass,justasaltitude
sicknessdoes.Thisiscertainlyacceptableforpermanentresidentswhowillstayforyears,
butmaycauseproblemsforshorttermvisitors.

Toreallynaildowntheeffectsofrotationinorbit,additionalexperimentsalongthelinesof
theSKYLABexperimentdiscussedaboveareinorder.Thiscouldbesupplementedby
parabolicaircraftflights.Iftheresultsreportedaboveonasmallnumberofsubjectsextend
tothegeneralpopulation,thenhigh(46rpm)rotationratesmaybeacceptable.

Asnotedabove,thecombinationoftheresultsoftheseradiationandrotationstudies
stronglysuggestthatspacesettlementscanbefarlessmassive(480timesormore)and
muchclosertoEarth(760times)thanpreviouslythought.Evenwiththeseenormous
reductionsinsizeanddistance,thereisastillamajorbarrierthatELEOshareswithall
spacesettlementschemes.

TheBigProblem:Launch
Theproposedapproachtodevelopingthefirstspacesettlementsdependsheavilyon
launchingallthematerialsfromEarth.Therequiredimprovementsinlaunchforfinancially
viableELEOsettlementsaresignificant.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatallother
settlementlocationsalsorequiremuchimprovedlaunchcapabilities.

Spacesettlementis,atitscore,arealestatebusiness.Wehopetobuildnewcommunities
inordertosellhousinginthem.Thismustbedoneabovecostorbesubsidized.Tokeep
thesubsidiestoaminimum,wewouldliketobeabletosellahouseorapartmentinspace
forsomethingclosetothecostofaveryhighendlocationonEarthtoday.Forexample,the
averagehomepriceinSiliconValleyiswellover$1milliontoday.Consideringjustthe
launchcosts,sincethesearetheeasiesttoquantify,howmuchimprovementisneededto
getahousingunitinaspacesettlementsomewhereinthemilliondollarperpersonrange?

25
Therearetwopartstothetransportationcost:deliveringthematerialsandcomponentsfor
thesettlement,andflyingtheproudnewownertotheirnewhome.

Table2suggeststhatKalpanaOneat4rpmrequires17tons/person.Thecheapest
advertisedpricetodayfordeliveringmasstoorbitistheFalconHeavy,indevelopment,at
$90millionfor53tonstoLEO[SpaceX2015],or$1.7millionperton.For17tonsthatis
about$29million.

ThecheapestadvertisedpricetolaunchpeopletoLEOisabitover$26million/seatona
Falcon9/DragonwhichincludesastayataBigelowspacestation[Bigelow2015],alsoin
development.Itshouldbenotedthatthiscostmustbeincurredforsettlersgoingtoany
spacelocation.

Combiningthesetwocostsgivesus(roundingup)$60millionperperson.Thisdoesnot
includematerials,constructionorresupplycostswhichwewillassumearesimilartothe
transportationcost.Weassumethatgovernmentorspacetourismbusinesses(seebelow)
willconductmostoftheresearchanddevelopmentcostotherthanactuallybuildinga
settlement.

Togetthetransportationcoststoclosetoonemilliondollars,leavingsomesmallnumberof
millionsforeverythingelse,weneedtoreducethecostoflaunchbyaboutafactorof50to
around$1.2M/person.Noticethattheseareextremelyroughcalculations,butaresufficient
forplanningpurposes.

Reducinglaunchcostbyafactorof50willbeextremelydifficult,butwouldhavefantastic
benefitforeveryuseofspace.Thebenefitsofimprovedlaunch,wellbelowafactorof50,
arerecognizedandarepartofthereasonweareinthemidstofagoldeneraoflaunch
systemdevelopmentwithSpaceX,NASA,UnitedLaunchAlliance,VirginGalactic,Blue
Origin,OrbitalATK,theEuropeans,Russia,India,Brazil,Chinaandothersalldeveloping
neworimprovedlaunchvehicles.Inparticular,theSpaceXFalcon9,arelativelynew
vehicle,hasreducedthelaunchpriceenoughthattheircompetitorsarescramblingtofollow
suit.However,toreducelaunchpricebyafactorof50willrequiremorethananyofthe
currenteffortscanpossiblyprovide.

Toreacha50timespricereduction,oranythingclose,willalmostcertainlyrequirefully
reusablelaunchvehicles,muchimprovedtechnologyandaveryhighflightrate,probablyin
thetensofthousandsperyear.Thereusabilityandtechnologyrequirementsaregenerally
recognizedbutforsomereasonflightrateisoftenignored.However,withfewerthan100
launchesperyeartoday,asinglereusablevehiclecapableoftwoflightsaweekcould,
theoretically,satisfytheentirelaunchmarket!Even1,000flightsperyearwouldonlyrequire
10suchvehicles.Largereductionsinpricewillnotcomeifvehiclesarebuiltinsuchsmall
numbers.Launchvehiclesonlymakemoneywhentheyfly,soweneedaveryhighflight
rate,probablyover10,000flights/year.

26
Thereareonlytwoapplicationsthat,attherightprice,couldcreateamarketrequiringa
flightrateoftenofthousandsormoreperyear:spacesolarpower(SSP)13andtourism.
SSPrequiresaverylargeinvestmentupfrontbeforeanyincomeisgeneratedandis
vulnerabletoterrestrialcompetition,particularlyasbatteriesimprove.Soweturnour
attentiontotourism.

Tourism:theKillerApp
Howdowegetfromwherewearenowtotheconstructionofthefirsthighrpmspace
settlementinELEO?Oneword:tourisma$2.3trillion/yearindustry[Statista2014].Steady
growthinaforprofitspacetourismmarketcouldprovidemostofthedevelopmentneededto
enableconstructionofthefirstELEOsettlements.

LaunchRate
Thefirsttaskistodrivethelaunchrateuptothepointwherepricesare,veryroughly,50
timeslowerthantodaysadvertisedprices,orabouthalfamilliondollarsperseat.There
havebeenanumberofstudiesofthespacetourismmarket[ONeil1998].Wepresentdata
fromoneoftheminTable9:

RelationshipBetweenSpaceTourismPriceandVolume
price/ticket passengers/year Flightsat10 Vehicles Grossrevenue
(2015$) passengersper neededifflies ($million)
vehicle twiceperweek

1,600 20million 2million 20,000 32,000

16,000 5million 500thousand 5,000 80,000

160,000 400thousand 40thousand 400 64,000

400,000 1,000 100 1 400

800,000 170 17 0.017 136

Table9:Crouch,G.I.,ResearchingtheSpaceTourismMarket,Presentedattheannual
ConferenceoftheTravelandTourismResearchAssociation,June2001.Thisstudy
attemptedtodetermineglobaldemandfortouristflightsasafunctionofprice.Priceswere
convertedto2015dollarsandthelastthreecolumnsadded.

Theseareearlyestimatesandrequirefurtherresearch.However,therearethreeimportant
takeawaymessagesfromTable9thatarejustifiedevenifthedataarenotquiteright.First,
demandisastrongfunctionofprice.Asthepricegoesdownthenumberofpassengersper
yearincreasesveryrapidly.Thiswillrewardthosewhocanflylessexpensively.Second,
themarketmayeventuallybequitelarge,perhapstensofbillionsofdollars.Third,thereis
somepoint$160,000/tripherewheredemandskyrockets.Third,evenwithdemand
explodingat$160,000/tripthenumberofreusablevehiclesneededisnotparticularlylarge.

13
Forourpurposes,SSPreferstogatheringsolarenergyinspaceandbeamingittoEarth.
27
Lowvehiclepricerequireslargevolumesandtorequiretrulylargenumbersofvehicleswe
needaverylowcustomerprice,perhapsinthetensofthousandsofdollarsperseatrange.

Thewaytodeveloplowercostlaunchvehiclesistogettheindustryintoavirtuouscycle
where

1. lowerlaunchpricesstimulatesincreaseddemand
2. increaseddemandprovideseconomiesofscaletolowerlaunchcosts
3. Backto#1

WhatTable9indicatesisthatsuchavirtuouscycleispossibleifthenecessaryvehiclescan
bedevelopedandwehaveabuyersmarket.Theneedtoundercutthecompetitioncandrive
incrementaltechnologydevelopment,andgovernmentresearchhasbeeneffectivein
developinglongterm,breakthroughtechnology(theInternetistheclassiccase).

Notethata$260,000/flightprice(a100timesreductionincurrentadvertisedprice)maybe
inthevicinityofthepricepointthatcorrespondstoarapidincreaseinthemarket.Thisisin
therangeofthereductionnecessarytobuildunsubsidizedELEOsettlements.However,
thismaystillnotbeenoughtorequiremorethanafewhundredlaunchvehicles.

Fortunately,thetouristmarketisnotjustamatterofsurveysandspeculation,thereis
alreadyaspacetourismmarketwithpayingcustomers.TheRussianshaveflownseven
payingcustomerstotheISSforaweekortwoeach,oneofthemtwice.Pricesarebelieved
tohavevariedfromabout$20to40million.Unfortunately,pricesstartedsomeyearsagoat
$20millionandhavesincegoneup,whichcanonlymeanthatrightnowspacetourismisa
sellersmarket.Thisisbecauseinthelastfewyearsonlyonetouristseatintospacehas
beenavailable.

Whileonlyasingleseathasbeenforsaleinanumberofyears,over700peoplehavepaida
depositforashortsuborbitalflight,at$95250thousand/seat,butthevehiclesarenotyet
readyandhavenotyetflowninspace.NorareanyAmericancrewcapablevehiclesready
forhumanlaunch.ThisleavesonlytheRussianSoyuzandonlywhenanextraseatis
availablebeyondwhatisneededtostafftheISS.Thusthe$40million/seatprice.Thecargo
versionoftheFalcon9hasreducedsatellitelaunchpricesandstimulatedanindustrywide
scrambletolowerprices.IfthehumanratedFalcon9underdevelopmentcandothesame
fortouristseats,ourvirtuouscyclemaybegin.

Spacetourismcan,atleastinprinciple,providethedemandtodevelopthereusable,
highlaunchratevehiclesnecessarytosuccessfulELEOspacesettlements,oranywhere
elseforthatmatter.Thetouristmarketcanalsodrivethedevelopmentofthetechnology
andinfrastructurenecessarytoconstructionofthefirstspacesettlements.

FacilityDevelopment:SpaceHotels
OneapproachtodevelopingELEOsettlementsistostartwithwhereweareandbuildmore,
largerandbetterspacestationsandhotelstofeedagrowingmarketasspacevacation

28
pricescomedownduetoimprovementsinlaunchvehicles.Leasingspaceinstationsand
providinghotelaccommodationscouldprovideneartermrevenuetodrivethemarket.The
ownersofspacehotelswillhaveastrongincentivetorecycleair,water,andevenfoodto
reducethecostofresupply.Highervolumesoftouristtrafficwillsupportlargerandlarger
hotels.Somespacehotelsmayevenrotatetoprovidefractionalgtoallowstafflongerstays
andmakecustomeruseofthetoiletaneasiertask.Eventually,ifallgoeswell,spacehotels
mayapproachthesizeofa4rpmsettlement(112mdiameterand28.5kTmass,see
Tables2and3).Atthatpoint,buildingthefirstsettlementmaynotbemuchmoredifficult
thanbuildingyetanotherhotel.

Figure6:TheInternationalSpaceStation(ISS)inorbit.Itisalittlelessthan100minlength,
notmuchlessthanthe112mdiameterrequiredfora4rpmspacesettlement.Themassof
theISSisabout0.42kT[NASA2015],orabout520xlessthanthe4rpmversionsofthe
StanfordTorusandKalpanaOne(seeTables2and3).TheISShashosted7paying
tourists.Imagecredit:NASA.

First,letusconsiderwhereweare.TheISStypicallyhostssixpeople.Itisalmost100m
longbutdoesnotrotateandisinahighinclination,highradiationorbitsomewhatlowerthan
ourpreference(400kmratherthan500km).TheISShashostedsevenspacetourists,one
twice,forapriceestimatedat$2040millionperpersonontripsofonetotwoweeks.In
additiontopayingaveryhighprice,thesetouristsneededtolearnRussianandtrainfor
manymonthsinStarCityinRussia.TherewardhasbeenfantasticviewsofEarthandthe
incomparableexperienceofmicrogravity.Someofthesetouristshavealsoconducted
important,andsometimespaid,experimentsduringtheirstay[Garriott2014].

TheU.S.governmenthasnospecificplanstodevelopadditionalspacestationsafterthe
planneddecommissioningoftheISSin2024.ThereareindicationsthatNASAwouldlike
privateindustrytodevelopcommercialstations,butnofirmcommitmenttohelp.The
RussianandChinesegovernmentshavebothindicatedthattheywillbuildandoperate

29
spacestationsoftheirownintherelativelynearfuture.WhatmightaU.S.ledprogramto
replacetheISSlooklike?

Foravarietyofreasons,NASAcannotflyrichtourists.NASAcanhelpdevelopspace
stationsthough.OneapproachtogettingstartedwouldbefortheISStobeaugmentedand
eventuallyreplacedbyprivatespacestations,commerciallyownedandoperated.The
AllianceforSpaceDevelopment(ASD)andtheNationalSpaceSociety(NSS)proposedthat
thisbeapproachedinamannersimilartototheCOTSandCCDevprograms[NSS2015],
whereNASAprovidespartialdevelopmentfundingandsubsequentlybecomesananchor
tenant,oratleastanimportantcustomer.Thisapproachsuccessfullydevelopedtwocargo
launchvehiclesatasmallfractionoftheusualrocketdevelopmentcost(COTSprogram)
andiscurrentlybeingusedtodeveloppassengerservicetotheISS(CCDev).

Figure7:TheB330spacestation.ImagecreditBigelowAerospace.

Thereisatleastoneprivatecompany,BigelowAerospace,thatisbuildingspacestations.
ThesestationsarebasedoninflatabletechnologyacquiredfromNASAandsubsequently
improved.Bigelowhasflowntwosubsizedteststationswhicharecurrentlyinorbit.Bigelow
isalsopreparingasmallmodule,theBEAM(BigelowExpandableActivityModule),for
launchtotheISSundera$17.3millioncontractwithNASAforatwoyeartrial.Finally,
BigelowisdevelopingtheB330module,asixperson,20ton,9.45mlength,300m3volume,
20yearlifespanspacestationmodulethatisbeingmarketedasatouristdestinationandto
nationalspaceprogramsandcompaniesforresearchanddevelopment[Bigelow2015].
Soleuseof110m3ofthefuturestationispricedat$25millionfortwomonths.Lowestcost
perseatthereandback,asmentionedabove,isabitover$26million.

Asinglesmallcompanymakingprogressishardlyenoughtodeclarevictoryandgohome.
However,thereareanumberofaerospacecompanieswiththecapacitytobuildspace
stationsorhotels,andintelligentuseofgovernmentdevelopmentfundscouldbothhelp

30
BigelowAerospacesucceedandbringothersintocompetitiontogenerateamorevigorous
market.

Letusassume,forthemoment,thatindustrystepsuptobuildandoperatespacestationsin
responsetocurrentopportunitiesandperhapsgovernmentinducements.Itwillnotescape
noticethatspacehotelsareeasiertobuildandoperatethanspacestations.Allthat
expensivescienceequipmentfurnaces,gloveboxes,centrifugesandsoforthisnot
needed.Itismuchsimplertohavealargeareaformicrogravityrecreationandsomefirst
classwindowsforviewing.Ifsomeonecanbuildandoperateaprofitablespacehotel,then
otherswillfollow.Spacehotelswillneedlessexpensivelauncherstobringmoreandmore
customers,andlaunchcompaniesneedhighlaunchratetoreduceprices.Hotelsarekeyto
tothisvirtuouscycle.

Ifavigorousspacehotelmarketisestablished,itisreasonabletoexpectthatmanyofthe
technicalandinfrastructureproblemsassociatedwithELEOsettlementwillexperience
competitivepressuretobesolved.Forexample,

1. Recyclingairandwatercanlowercostssignificantly.
2. Growingfoodonboardcannotonlysavecost,buthighendcustomersmaynot
welcomefreezedriedfoodlikesubstancesfordinner.
3. Rotationmaybeintroduced,atlowglevels,toeliminatethecustomertraining
necessarytousemicrogravitytoilets,atrickypropositionwithsignificantdownsides
whenthingsgowrong!
4. Modestartificialgravitylevelsmightallowhotelstafftohavelongertoursofduty,
substantiallyreducingcosts.Microgravityrecreationwouldstillbeavailablenearthe
axisofrotation.

Ifthevirtuouslaunchcostcyclecanbeestablished,overtimeitisreasonabletoexpectthat
spacehotelswillevolveintofacilitiesnearthesizeofa112mdiameterspacesettlement
withallormostofthenecessarycapacities:lifesupport,artificialgravity,transportation,
communicationsandsoforth.Atthatpointbuildingthefirsttruespacesettlement,aplaceto
raiseyourkids,isnotalotdifferentfrombuildingyetanotherhotel.

Thus,thefirstspacesettlementmaynotcomefromaheroiceffortbyanelitebandof
adventurers,butratherfromthenaturaloutgrowthofaprofitablecommercialmarket
completewiththeluxuriousamenitiesexpectedbyhighendtourists.

ImmediateTasks
Themostimportantimmediatetasks,aswehavediscussedabove,arelauncher
developmentandprivate,commercialfollowonstotheISS.Thesecanworkoutthe
transportation,construction,andoperationissuesrelevanttospacesettlement.

WehavealsoindicatedthatanELEOresearchstationisnecessarytoinvestigateradiation
issues,andexperimentsrotatingpeopleinmicrogmaymaybeimportant.

31
Thereareotherissuesthatshouldbeaddressedsoon:therelevantorbitsarehometovery
highvelocityuncontrolledspacejunk,launchfailuresratesaretoohighforextensive
tourism,highlaunchratesmayimpacttheatmosphere,andwedonotknowhowsmalla
viablesettlementcanbe.

SpaceDebris

ThespacefaringnationsofEarthhavebeencreatingdebrisinorbitfordecades.Asaresult,
thereareover20,000trackedEarthorbitingobjectslargerthan10cmandperhapshalfa
millionshrapnelfragmentsbetween1and10cm.Thesearetravelingatspeedsaround
27,000km/hour[NASA2012].Atleastonecommunicationsatellitewasdestroyedbya
debriscollision,creatingthousandsofnewpiecesofshrapnel.Acollisionwithanyofthese
bitsofjunkcouldeasilypuncturethepressurizedhullofahotelorsettlement.Theproblem
isexpectedtogetmuchworseastheprobabilityofacollisionissuperlinearwiththenumber
ofpiecessoeachcollisionsignificantlyincreasestheprobabilityofmorecollisions.

Figure8showsthenumberandmassofthedebrisasafunctionofaltitude.Notethatatthe
altitudeweexpectforearlyELEOsettlementsandhotels,around400500km,thereisnota
lotofdebris.Thatisbecausedebrisatthesealtitudesdecaysandburnsupinthe
atmospherefairlyquickly,unlikelargeandheavysettlementswithhighmassperunitofdrag
areawoulddo.However,almostallofthedebrisgeneratedinLEOwilleventuallypass
throughthe400500kmaltituderangeandatthatpointconstituteaseriousthreattoboth
hotelsandsettlements,and,forthatmatter,allothersatellitesinLEO.Thus,itwouldbewise
topreventadditionalspacepollutionandcleanupthemesswehavealreadymade.

32

Figure8:NumberoftrackedobjectsinLEOandthetotalmassasafunctionofaltitude.
ImagecreditDarrenMcKnightandPatrickDingman[McKnight2012].

LaunchFailuresRates
Launchvehicleshavefairlyhighcatastrophicfailurerates.Forexample,thespaceshuttle
hada1.5%failurerate.Thisisfairlylowcomparedtomostotherlaunchers.[NASA2011]
and[Lafleur2010]reportfailureratesforanumberofvehicles:

1. Shuttle:135launcheswitha1.5%failurerate.
2. Soyuz:1,698launcheswitha2%failurerate.
3. Delta:347launcheswitha4%failurerate.
4. Ariane:193launcheswitha5%failurerate.
5. Falcon9:19launcheswitha5%failurerate.
6. Proton:351launcheswitha11%failurerate.
7. Atlas:347launcheswitha12%failurerate.

Itshouldbenotedthatmanyofthesefailureswereearlyinthevehicleslifetimeandthat
failureratesinthefuturearelikelytobelower.Forexample,themostrecentversionofthe
Atlasfamily,theAtlasV,hasneverhadacatastrophicaccident.

Themaximumfatalityrateaviablespacetourismbusinesscantolerateisunknown.
However,asearlyspacetourismisdefinitelyadventuretravel,comparisonswithother
adventuretravelmayberelevant.Forexample,thefatalityrateforthoseclimbingMt.
Everestisabout2%[Explorersweb2006].Assumingthatearlyspacetouristscantolerateas

33
muchriskasthoseclimbingMt.Everestthemostreliablelaunchersappeartobegood
enough.

Ofcourse,thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthespacetourismexperienceand
climbingMt.Everest.Theclimbersrequiregreatskillandmustbeinexcellentphysical
conditiontoevenconsidertheattempt.Trainingandfitnessrequirementsforspacetourism
aremuchlower.Also,whenclimbingitisyouagainstthemountainasopposedtobeinga
passengerwhosefateisinothershands.

Inthelongerterm,ifweachievethedesired10,000launchesperyearormorea2%failure
rateiscompletelyunacceptable.Thatwouldbeatleast200fatalaccidentsayearorfour
perweek.Spacelaunchfailureswillalmostcertainlybewellpublicizedasexplosionsmake
forhighTVratings.Thus,avigorousprogramtoreducefailureratesisimperative.

HighLaunchRateImpactontheAtmosphere

EveryspacelaunchslightlyalterstheEarthsatmospherebyinsertingrocketexhaustat
variousaltitudes.VehiclesreturningtoEarthusuallyuseatmosphericbrakingwhich
involveshightemperaturesandinduceschemicalreactions.Theseeffectsareparticularly
significantathighaltitudeswherethereislittlemattertobeginwith.

Attodaysverylowlaunchrates,under100peryear,thereislittleconcernwithatmospheric
pollution.Theamountsaretinycomparedtoothersources.However,wehaveseenthat
spacesettlement,atanylocation,requirestensofthousandsoflaunchesperyeartobring
pricesdowntothepointthatverywelloffindividualsmightbeabletofinancetheirown
relocationintospace.Atthesehighlaunchlevelsitisnotagiventhatatmosphericdamage
isacceptable.

Fortunately,thecostofrespectingtheenvironmentisusuallylowifenvironmentalconcerns
areaddressedearlybeforethereisalargeinfrastructurebasedonpollutingtechnology.In
thecaseofspacelaunch,considerthatH2/O2isnotonlymorepowerful(higherISP)than
carbonbasedfuelsbuttheexhaustisonlywater,notmorecomplexcompoundsandCO2.

Avigorouslongrangeresearchprogramtounderstandpotentialthreatstotheatmosphere
andavoidthemwouldbewise.

HowSmallCanaSettlementBe?

Ourstudyoftherotationliteraturerevealedthatthecriteriausedforearlyspacesettlement
designswasunnecessarilyconservative,althoughappropriateforthosestudiesatthattime.
Infact,settlerscantoleratemuchhigherrotationratesandthistranslatesintosmallerinitial
settlementsize.However,rotationtolerancealonemaynotbesufficienttodefinethe
minimumsizeofaviablesettlement.

Mostoftheearlysettlerswilllikelycomefromlargecitiesasmaintainingagiganticcomplex
newmachinesuchasaspacesettlementrequiresveryhighlevelsoftechnicalexpertise.

34
Wewillbeaskingthesepeopletoliveinamuchsmallersocialandphysicalenvironment.
Howsmallcanthatbe?

Wedontknow,anditisimportant.Itisimportantbecausethesmallerthesettlementthe
easieritistobuild,atleastforthefirstfew.Inthispaperwehaveassumedthata4rpm
settlementwithadiameterof112mwouldbebigenough,whichseemsreasonablebut
thereisnodatatobackitup.Indeed,onemightexpectthattheminimumsizedependsa
greatdealonexactlywhoinhabitsthesettlement.

Notonlydowenotknowhowsmallasettlementcanbe,itisnotintheleastbitclearhowto
approachtheproblem.Thisisanareaforfurtherresearch.

SettlementGrowthPath
WhiletheeasiestapproachtothefirstfewsettlementsmaybetouseELEO,thisisnotthe
endgoalbutratheraverylargefirststep.SeeAppendixAforanextremelylongterm
developmentpathstartingwiththefirstELEOsettlementandcontinuingontohighEarth
orbit,theMoon,asteroids,Mars,andeventuallysendinggenerationshipstothestars.

Conclusion

Tosurvivelongterm,humanityandlifeitselfmustdiversifybeyondEarth.Ofallspecies
onlyhomosapiensisspacefaringandonlyhumankindhasthephysicalabilitytosettle
space.However,developingtruespacesettlementswhereresidentslive,workandraise
theirchildrenisadauntingtask.Surfacesettlements,ontheMoonandMars,areseverely
problematicforraisingchildrenduetolowgravityandarealsoextremelyfarawaymaking
transportdifficult.Forfortyyearsfreespacesettlementsappearedtorequireminingmillions
oftonsofmaterialfromtheMoonorasteroidsandconstructingkilometerscalespace
systemsathugedistancesfromEarth.Inthispaperwehaveshownhowtomakeearly
settlementconstructionandoperationsignificantlylessdauntingbymakingthosefirst
settlementsclose,small,andbuildingupfromtheISSincrementally.

WehaveseenthatthetaskismucheasierwhenthefirstsettlementsarebuiltinELEO
around500kmabovetheEarthssurfaceanddirectlyovertheequator.Theradiation
environmentinthisregionofspaceisrelativelybenignaswehaveseenfromboth
experimentandcomputation.Infact,acarefulexaminationofthepermissibleradiationlevels
combinedwithcalculationstronglysuggeststhatELEOsettlementsmayneednodedicated
radiationshielding,whichistypically95%ormoreofthemassoffreespacesettlement
designs.Inspace,massisagood,althoughnotperfect,proxyfordifficulty.

Wehaveseenthattheliteraturesuggeststhathumanrotationtoleranceismuchgreater
thanthedesigners(includingtheauthors)ofearlierfreespacesettlementsbelieved.This
permitstheconstructionofmuchsmallersettlements.Incombinationwitheliminatingthe
radiationshieldingthemassoffreespacesettlementdesignscanbereducedbyatleasttwo
ordersofmagnitude,whichisacompletegamechanger.Itmeansthatlunarorasteroidal
mining,materialsprocessing,andmanufactureisnolongeronthecriticalpathtothefirst

35
settlement,althoughtheywillbeabletoexploitthemarketscreatedbyELEOsettlements
launchedfromEarth.

Wehaveseenthattheprimarybarriertospacesettlementisthecostoflaunch,asistrue
withalllargescalespacedevelopment.Thecurrentcosttolaunchasinglesettlerandtheir
shareofthematerialsforanELEOsettlementisaround$60million,almosthalfjustto
launchthesettlerwhichisrequiredforallsettlementlocations.Toreducethiscostintothe
rangeofanexpensivehouseonEarthrequiressomewherearounda50foldreductionin
launchprice.Otherlocationshavesimilarcostorgreater,withaccesstomaterialsbeing
balancedbygreatertransportationcost.

Whilea50foldreductioninlaunchpricewillbedifficulttoachieve,thereisamarket
mechanism.Thevolumeofspacetourismisastrongfunctionofprice.Anyreductionin
launchcostcansubstantiallyincreasethenumberofpayingcustomers,andthiscanprovide
theincreasedvolumeneededtoreducetheprice,whichcanincreasethenumberof
customersandsooninavirtuouscycle.Thekeyisconvertingthecurrentsellersmarketinto
abuyersmarket.Asanimportantsideeffecttothisdynamic,touristswillneedanever
increasingnumber,size,andsophisticationofspacehotels,whichmayeventuallyevolveto
thepointthatbuildingasmallspacesettlementisnotmuchdifferentfrombuildingalarge
hotel.

Thus,weseethatthefirstmajorstepstowardsettlementofthesolarsystemmaynotbe
drivenbyeliteastronauts,butratherbyordinarypeopletakingthemostamazingand
fantasticvacationoftheirlives.

AdAstra!

Acknowledgements

ThankstoAlAnzalduaforthespacedebrisinformation.ThankstoDavidBrandtErichsen,
JoeCarroll,GaryOleson,TomMarottaandJoeStroutforcommentsandediting.

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39
AppendixA:SettlementGrowthPath
WhiletheeasiestapproachtothefirstfewsettlementsmaybetouseELEO,thisisnotthe
endgoalbutratheraverylargefirststep.Inthisappendixwesketchoutanextremelylong
termdevelopmentpathstartingwiththefirstELEOsettlementandcontinuingontohigh
Earthorbit,theMoon,asteroids,Mars,andeventuallygenerationshipstothestars.

FillELEOwithSettlements
OnceafewELEOsettlementshavebeenbuiltandsuccessfullyoperatedthenextorderof
businessistofillELEOwithanindustrialcivilization.A500kmaltitudecircularorbitatthe
equatorisabout43,000kmlong.Assumingaspacingof1,000km,thatmeansthereis
roomfor43settlements.Ifweassumewecanpopulateorbitsevery50kminaltitudefrom
400to600kmwegetabout200settlements.Whilethefirstsettlementsshouldbeassmall
aspossibletotakeadvantageofspacehoteldevelopmentexperience,mostpeople,
particularlytechnicalpeople,areaccustomedtolivingincitieswithlargepopulations.Thus,
itisprobablydesirabletobuildlargersettlementsasquicklyaspossibleanddecommission
theearlysmallonesoncetheslotsfillup.Ifeachsettlementhasatleastapopulationof
10,000thenumberchosenbythe1970sstudies[Johnson1975][ONeill1977]that
makesforatotalELEOpopulationofovertwomillion.

ELEOSettlementEnablesLunarand/orAsteroidalMiningandSettlement
Allofthecurrentapproachestolunarandasteroidalminingsufferfromthesameweakness:
smallmarketsinspace.ItisdifficultforextraterrestrialmaterialstocompeteonEarthasthe
samematerialscangenerallybeminedonEarthforasmallfractionofthecostofdeveloping
andoperatingminesinspaceandtransportingtheresultingmaterialstoEarth.Byfarthe
bestmarketsforextraterrestrialmaterialsareinspacewheretransportationcostswork
againstEarthmaterials.

However,thecurrentinspacemarketformaterialsconsistsofsixpeopleintheISSand
about1,300roboticspacecraftonlyoneofwhichhasbeendesignedtoberefueledor
repaired,muchlessuselunarorasteroidalmaterialstodoso.Themostcommonmarket
citedbyspaceminingenthusiastsisoxygenandsometimeshydrogenforuseasrocketfuel.
Thismarketdoesntexistatallrightnow,andeveninrosyfutureprojectionsisquitesmall
comparedtotourism.

OnceextensivesettlementsinELEOareestablishedthiswillchange.Insteadofsixpeople
inspacetheremaybemillions.Thesepeoplewillneedwaterandatmospherereplacement,
reactionmassfororbitmaintenance,andmaterialsformanufacturingandforbuilding
additionalsettlements.Thismaybeenoughtogetlunarandasteroidalminingoperations
started.Unlesstheseminescanbeentirelyautomated,includingmaintenance,acrewwill
benecessaryforeachmine.Theseminingcampsmay,astheyoftenhaveonEarth,
becomethenucleusofnewsettlements.

Althoughlunarminesaretheclosestindistance,asteroidalmaterialsmayplayaroleatthis
stageassomeasteroidscanbebroughtintolunarorevenEarthorbitatlowdeltavusing
veryefficientsolarelectricpropulsionandlunargravitationassist[Brophy2012].Indeed,

40
NASAiscurrently(Fall2015)planningasimilarmissiontargetingaboulderonalarge
asteroidratherthananentiresmallasteroid.

Thus,ratherthanspaceminesbeingessentialtoinitialsettlementconstruction,settlements
maycreatetheconditionsforsuccessfulextraterrestrialmining.

Lunarand/orAsteroidalMinesEnableHighEarthOrbit(HEO)Settlement
Oncetherearelunarand/orasteroidalminesinoperationitmaybecomefeasibletobuild
settlementsbeyondELEOinmoredangerousHEOradiationenvironmentsthatrequire
manytonsofshieldingpersquaremeterofhull.Thenthesameproblemsfacedbythe
designersoftheStanfordToruswillhavetobeovercome,butthosetaskswillbemade
mucheasierbyalarge,experiencedworkforceinspace,industrializationofELEO,and
existinglunarand/orasteroidalminingoperationsthatneedtobescaledup,notcreated
fromscratch.

Thus,ELEOsettlementsmayenablethelunarand/orasteroidalmineswhichinturnenable
deliveryofthematerialsrequiredbyHEOsettlements.Thisspaceisvastandcansupport
anextremelylargepopulationcertainlyinthebillions,butthereismore.

AsteroidMiningEnablesSolarSystemWideSettlement
AlthoughtheresourcesofEarthorbit(spaceandsunlight)andlunarmaterialsarevastthey
shouldnotholdhumanityforever.Indeed,forsurvivalitwillbeprudenttopushbeyond
Earthorbit,evenHEO,tobecomeindependentoftheEarthMoonsystem.Theobvious
approachistobuildsettlementscoorbitingwithasteroidsthatsupplythenecessary
materials.

ThefirstasteroidbasedsettlementswillundoubtedlybenearNearEarthObjects(NEOs)as
theyaretheeasiesttoreach.At2rpmacylindricalKalpaneOnelikesettlementincluding
deepspaceradiationshieldinghasamassofabout4milliontonsaccordingtoTable2.Ata
representativeasteroidaldensity(3ton/m3[Carry2012])aspherical140mdiameterasteroid
hasaboutthatmuchmass.Thereareroughly15,000NEOsatleastthatlarge[NASA2013]
andfarmoremainbeltasteroids.

Ifasizablefractionoftheseasteroidsaredevelopedintospacesettlementsmankindwill
haveavastindustrialbase,perhapssufficienttolaunchthenextstep.

GenerationShipsEnableGalacticSettlement
Ifyouandyourfamilyhavelivedfor500generationsonfreespacesettlements,how
importantisproximitytoSol?Forsome,itmaynotmattermuchwhethertheirsettlementis
inorbitaroundtheSunoronthewaytoAlphaProxima,fourlightyearsaway.Itdoesnot
matterifAlphaProximahasahabitableplanet,asourdistantdescendantswillonlyneed
asteroidsorcometstoprovidematerials.Ifsuitablepropulsion,powersourceandextremely
efficientrecyclingcanbedevelopedinthenextfewtensofthousandsofyears14,thereis

14
Ormillionsofyears,ifyouareworriedaboutinsufficienttimeforR&D.
41
everyreasontobelievethatgroupsofcotravelingsettlements(forredundancyshould
somethingseriousgowrong)mayheadoutintothegalaxy.Asweareneartheedgeofthe
galaxywhereinterstellardistancesarerelativelylarge,ifwecangettoAlphaProximawe
cangetanywheregivenenoughtime,andthenthisgalaxyisours.

AppendixB:OrbitalSettlementModels

ThissectionprovidesadescriptionoftheMicrosoftExcelmodelsthatfeedTable2(Kalpana
Onecylinders)andTable3(StanfordTori).Thesourcespreadsheetmaybefoundat
http://space.alglobus.net/papers/EasyModel.xlsx.

Bothtablesuseasetofknobsthatmaybeturnedtodefinethebasicparametersdriving
thecalculationsforaseriesofcolumnsofthevarioussizehabitats.Somevaluesarederived
fromothers,butofcoursemaybeoverridden.

Notethatforsimplicity,themodelshidescertainrowsandcolumnsnotneededforthis
discussion,butinterestedpartiesmayunhidethemandtryadditionalknobsandsettlement
sizes.Theyarefurtherdocumentedinthespreadsheet.

ThebasiccomparisonvaluesforthereductionfactorgoingtoELEOmerelychangethe
shieldmassfrom6tonnes/m2to0.Theotherparametersareunchanged,yetare(in
general)differentfromtheoriginalsettlementdesigns,soadirectcomparisonto,for
example,theoriginalStanfordTorus,wouldrequireadditionalchanges(suchasthe
populationdensity,structuralmaterialsstrengthanddensity,etc.).

FortheKalpanaOnecylinders,theaspectratioisfixedat1.00(versusthe1.3ofKalpana
OneRevised[Globus2007]).FortheStanfordTori,theoriginal6.9aspectratioofthe1
RPMtorusispreservedforcomparison,buttheothertorieachhaveaknobforaspectratio,
andtheyvaryfrom6downto2forthevarioussizes,inanefforttoprovideminimally
acceptablepopulations.Notethatastillsmalleraspectof1.5(3:2,equivalenttoadonut)
maybeused,butlessmaterialisrequiredforacylinder.

Thechosenhullmaterialisacarbonfibercompositewithaveryhighstrength(2,400MPA)
andarelativelylowdensity(1.3g/ml),anappropriatechoiceforEarthlaunchedhabitats.

Aninternalstructuralmassvalueof0.2tonnes/m2issufficienttoprovideanextralevelof
structurewithwallsandaceilingthatcansupporttheweightaboveit(thusthereisanouter
rimandalevelaboveonewouldbeforresidenceandtheotherforequipment,storage,
agriculture,workareas,andthelike).

Anonstructuralperpersonmassallowanceof7tonnesisspecified,whichincludes:
1.5ofplants(pertheNASA1977study)forfoodandrecyclingofairandwater
+1.0ofH2Odrinking&hygiene&recycling
+0.5ofH2Oforrecreation(pools)&aesthetics(fountains,streams,andponds)
+1.0forfurniture&fixtures

42
+1.0forlighting&equipment(includesplumbing&power&cooling)
+0.5forpaper&plastics&textiles
+1.5foragriculture&recyclingoverheadandequipment
Arichallowancewouldbe14(doubleeverything)
Aminimumallowancewouldbe3.5(halfeverything)

Thepopulationcapacityisdefinedas40m2/personofprojected1garea.

Thereisalsoadesignstructuralstrengthmarginforthehull.Thisisinitiallysetto300%,and
abareminimumof50%maybeacceptable.Thismarginisusedtocalculatethehullstress
requirementwhichincludesthecontributionsfromairpressure,the1gweightsoftheshield,
internalstructuresandthetotalnonstructuralmassesintonnes/m2ofhull.Notethatair
pressurealoneis10tonnes/m2.Themarginappliestoallofthese.

Calculationsaremadeforthedragcrosssection(m2)anddensity(tonnes/m2)usedinan
externalcalculationforthelifetimeofthehabitatassumingnoorbitraisingmaneuversand
aninitialaltitudeof500kilometers.

Herearetheknobsandresultingtables(aportionofthetablesareusedforTables2and3
above):

KNOBS

1.00 Cylinderaspectratio(widthtoradius)

0 Shieldmass(tonnes/m2)

2400 HullstructuralstrengthinMPA

1.3 Structuralmaterialsdensity(tons/m3)

0.2 Internalrimstructuresmass(tons/m2ofcylinderrim)

0 Internalendcapstructuresmass(tons/m2ofcylinderendcaps)

7 Nonstructuralmassintons/resident

40.0 Cylinderareaperresident(m2)(populationdensity)theydon'tallhavetolivealongtherim!

0.0 Endcapareaperresident(m2)(populationdensity)additionalpopulation

300% DesignStructuralStrengthMargin

RowValues&Formulas
RPM:aninputvalue,istheonlyparameterdefiningthecylinders
Radius:1/((pi*rpm/30)2/9.8)inmetersfor1.0G
Width:radius*cylinder_aspect_ratio
Design_Population:rim_area/cylinder_area_per_resident
+endcap_area/endcap_area_per_resident
Shell_Mass:(paraphrased)density*2*pi*radius3*(1+aspect_ratio)
43
 *design_stress/(hull_strengthdensity*(9.8*radius))
thisisessentiallythedensity*volume*stress*aspect_ratio_correction_factor
/(strengthgravity_self_stress)(allinproperunits)
fromSpaceSettlements:ADesignStudy(NASA1977)p66
Foratorus,thecorrectionfactorofaninfinitelylongcylinder(1.5)
isusedinsteadof(1+Ar),andtheformulaforthevolumeofatorusis
appliedinsteadofthevolumeofacylinder.
Forboth,theminimummassissetastheminimum_thickness*hull_area
Hull_thicknessissimplyhull_mass/hull_area.
Internal_structuresistheprojected_1G_area*internal_rim_structures_mass
plusasimilarendcapcalculationforcylindersonly
Shieldissimplyhull_area*shield_mass(intonnes/m2)
Non_Structural_Massisthepopulation*non_structural_mass_allowance
Air_Massis1.2kg*total_volume(asall,convertedtokilotonnesorkT)
Total_Massissimplyhull+shield+internal+non_structural+airmasses
Reduction_factorusesaniterationtocomputethetotalmassincluding6t/m2ofshieldfor
theoriginalsettlementsize(2rpmforcylinders,1rpmfortori),thenpluginthatvaluefor
theothercalculationsusingothershieldmasses.
Drag_Cross_Sectionusedaniterationtodeterminetheanglepresentingthemaximumarea
fordrag,whichturnsouttovaryslightlywithaspectratiobutiscloseenoughto55oforour
purposes.Thenthecalculationissin(55o)*pi*r2+cos(55o)*width*diameter
Drag_Mass_per_m2istotal_mass/drag_cross_section
Thetorus_aspect_ratioisanotherinputvaluevaryingpertorus.
Additionally,themass,area,andvolumeforspokesandhubsiscomputedforeachtorus,
assumingsix2meterdiameterspokesanda4meterdiametercentralhub(fordocking),all
withathicknessthesameasthehull.

KalpanaOnestylehabitats

RPM 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

Radiusm 895 224 99 56 36 25

Widthm 895 224 99 56 36 25

DesignPopulation 125,637 7,852 1,551 491 201 97

Shell(kTorkiloTons) 2,030.79 31.62 2.77 0.49 0.13 0.05

hullthickness(m) 0.155 0.039 0.017 0.010 0.006 0.005

InternalStructures(kT) 1,005.10 62.82 12.41 3.93 1.61 0.78

Shield(kT) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NonstructuralmasskT 879.46 54.97 10.86 3.44 1.41 0.68

AirmasskT 2,698.72 42.17 3.70 0.66 0.17 0.06

44
 TotalMass(kT) 6,614.07 191.57 29.74 8.51 3.32 1.56

ReductionFactor 1 21 137 479 1,230 2,613

Dragcrosssectionm^2 2,977,356 186,085 36,757 11,630 4,764 2,297

DragMass/m^2(tonnes) 2.221 1.029 0.809 0.732 0.696 0.680

StanfordTorus
RPM 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

OuterRadiusm 895 224 99 56 36 25

AspectRatio 6.9 6 5 4 3 2

TubeDiameterm 130 37 20 14 12 12

ShieldMasskT 0 0 0 0 0 0

Population 18,208 1,309 310 123 67 48

ShellMasskT 66.968 1.379 0.228 0.088 0.046 0.030

Thicknessm 0.024 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005

InternalStructureskT 145.666 10.470 2.482 0.982 0.536 0.388

NonstructuralmasskT 127.458 9.161 2.172 0.859 0.469 0.339

AirmasskT 82.587 1.687 0.209 0.057 0.025 0.017

Spokes&HubkT 1.069 0.079 0.026 0.015 0.010 0.007

TOTALMASSkT 423.748 22.775 5.116 2.000 1.086 0.781

Reductionfactor 31 580 2581 6602 12158 16901

Dragcrosssection(m^2) 871,357 64,259 15,741 6,431 3,596 2,610

Dragmass/m^2(tonnes) 0.486 0.354 0.325 0.311 0.302 0.299

45