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TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: July 11, 2017
RE: Chris Kennedy MAINTAINS Lead in Recent
Democratic Primary Survey

On behalf of Kennedy for Illinois, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among a
statewide sample of 602 likely Democratic primary voters. This survey, which is fully
representative of the expected March 2018 primary electorate, was conducted from
June 26 to 29, 2017, and has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.

Despite nearly three months of statewide television, digital, and direct mail advertising
by the campaign of JB Pritzker, at a running total of more than $8 million, nearly 4,000
points of broadcast television in the major Chicago media market, Chris Kennedy—who
has spent ZERO dollars on paid communications—nonetheless retains a lead outside the
survey’s margin of error. In fact, while Pritzker has, unsurprisingly, increased his name
recognition and profile due to his early and massive TV buy, Kennedy also has increased
his name ID and virtually matches his opponent’s “positive” image. This was done
entirely through non-paid communication. These results reinforce Chris Kennedy’s
ability to maintain a competitive position in the face of what is likely shaping up as
record spending by the Pritzker campaign and win next March’s primary even with his
opponent’s massive personal spending.

In a two-way match up with JB Pritzker, Chris Kennedy leads by 44% to 38%,
with 18% of voters undecided. A significant finding is that amongst the electorate that
recognizes BOTH candidates (roughly three-fifths of voters), Kennedy has a Double-digit
lead and is nearing the 50% mark:
The significance of the “know both” trial heat standings is that they suggest that
Kennedy has room to grow his vote share while Pritzker may hit a wall despite his
spending advantage.

While Pritzker’s massive personal spending on television has modestly increased his
share of the vote since our December 2016 survey (18% Pritzker), the notable result is
that Chris maintains his lead and actually has gained votes too (34% in December, 44%
in June) despite not spending a penny on television.

There are three other key findings from the survey:

First, Chris leads in nearly every part of Illinois, winning the Chicago media market
by 43% to 38% and holding a wider 11% lead in Southern Illinois (46% to 35%). He
leads his opponent by equal margins among men and women, and holds leads among
both liberals (46% Kennedy, 35% Pritzker) and conservatives (Kennedy 40%, Pritzker
38%).

Second, both candidates have solid statewide name ID; Pritzker is known to 80% and
Kennedy is known to 70%. At this stage, both are reasonably popular with voters, but
Kennedy has virtually the same positive rating as Pritzker (45% positive to Kennedy,
46% positive to Pritzker) despite the $8 million in TV spending that has helped to create
the 10-point name ID deficit. In fact, Chris’s ratio of nine-to-one positive is much
stronger than the 3.8-to-one positive for JB Pritzker. These results suggest that
some of the press reports on Pritzker’s property tax issues and his FBI
recordings appear to be hurting his standing among primary voters.

None of the other Democratic candidates we polled have made much of an impact with
primary voters, with just 19% able to rate Daniel Biss and 14% who similarly know
Ameya Pawar. This is a two-way race between Kennedy and Pritzker for the
Democratic nomination at this point in the campaign.

Finally, the strength of Chris Kennedy’s positive message—particularly his message of
having the independence to take on the most unfair property tax system in the
nation—(and the softness of JB Pritzker’s support) is evidenced when we test some pro-
Kennedy statements and then re-ask the trial heat. After Democratic primary voters
hear several pro-Kennedy statements, Chris Kennedy dramatically INCREASES
his lead over JB Pritzker, jumping out to a 66%-20% advantage in the ensuing
trial heat. What is notable about this result (besides the massive shift to Kennedy), is
that Pritzker barely holds onto his initial support, with only half of his initial voters
sticking with him and nearly two in five (38%) defecting to Chris Kennedy.

In summary, this survey’s findings are notable and encouraging for the fact that Chris
Kennedy is able to maintain his momentum in the face of an opponent who has spent
more than $8 million on paid communications, compared with zero for Chris Kennedy.
Indeed, Chris has more than held his own and continues to lead in the primary trial heat
because voters are responding to his strong message of independence and shaking up
the unfair and inequitable property tax system. The massive defection from JB Pritzker
at the end of the survey demonstrates the tenuousness of his support, and that Chris is
in the strongest position to win the nomination next March even if outspent by his
opponent.