49

resulting in decreasing of contractors share of gross revenue, thus increasing the

payback period.

4.7 Sensitivity Analysis

The variations of oil price and CAPEX were used for sensitivity analysis to
determine the sensitivity of governments and contractors NPVs and contractors
IRR under both contract types.

4.7.1 Sensitivity Analysis for 475 MM bbl field.

This subsection deals with the sensitivity analysis for the field with size of
475 MM bbl. Figure 4.12 shows the sensitivity of governments and contractors
NPVs for CAPEX variation under both contract types for the field with size of 475
MM bbl.

8 000
7 000
Government's NPV for
6 000
PSA
NPVMMUSD

5 000 Contractor's NPV for

4 000 PSA

3 000 Government's NPV for

Concession
2 000
Contractor's NPV for
1 000 Concession
75% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 125%
CAPEX Variation

Figure 4.12 Sensitivity analysis for governments and contractors NPVs under
Kazakhstans PSA and Concession Contract for CAPEX variation for the field of
size of 475 MM bbl.