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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EDI SULISTIYANTO at PT KRESNA 26 JulSEKURITAS
2017 12:10 AM HKT
Disseminated 26 Jul 2017 12:10 AM HKT
Asia Pacific Equity Research
25 July 2017
Astra, JC&C and UNTR

Is Astra's fall technical, rather than fundamental?
Astra has shed 11.5% from its peak in mid-June, lagging the country index Indonesia, Singapore
by 12%. We think the prime factor is technical. Astras performance Auto Parts
typically tends to track foreign activity, and Indonesian equities have Aditya Srinath
AC
endured 16 consecutive sessions of outflows. As outflows ebb, we expect (65) 6882-7138

fundamentals to reassert, driving Astra toward our Rp9,200 PT. We expect aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com
Astra to report 2Q profit growth of 13% y/y, with earnings momentum Bloomberg JPMA SRINATH <GO>
J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private
accelerating in 2H. Within the family, we project UNTR 2Q EPS growth Limited
of 35% y/y and reiterate our OW, and we also like JCNC (OW). Indra Cahya, CFA
Astra Technicals, rather than volumes, behind the fall? We see (62-21) 5291-8575
indra.cahya@jpmorgan.com
Astras weak reported June volumes (-27% y/y) as misleading. Instead, PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia
we attribute the stocks decline to the extended streak of equity market Karen Li, CFA
outflows in the last month. Astra tends to be sensitive to flows, as over (852) 2800-8589
84% of the free float is held by foreigners (see p.2). As broader outflows karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com
ebb, Astra should reverse its recent 12% underperformance, in our view, J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
and we would see this as a buying opportunity, all else equal. Nick Lai
(852) 2800 8543
2Q preview Seasonality to play its part: Astra sold 137,000 four- nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com
wheelers (4W) in 2Q, -6% y/y and -15% m/m. The timing shift of the J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Lebaran holiday from July to June (fewer working days in 2QFY17 vs. Cusson Leung, CFA
2QFY16) was the main factor behind the contraction. For context, Astra (852) 2800-8526
cusson.leung@jpmorgan.com
sold 36,745 cars in June of FY17. Last year, it sold 49,685 vehicles in
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
June, but a comparable 37,108 in July. We expect Astra to report
2QFY17 PAT of Rp4.5tn, up 13% y/y. We expect earnings momentum Table 1: 2Q PAT preview
to pick up in 2H, with 3Q boosted by the reversal of the 2Q seasonal dip. 2Q PAT % y/y % q/q
Astra Rp4 .5tn 13% -11%
United Tractors Mix shift to drive ASPs and growth: Sixty-one UNTR Rp1.5tn 36% 1.7%
percent of UNTRs Komatsu deliveries in 1Q were to mining clients vs. JC&C $200mn 5% -1%
42% in 4Q and last year. This shift should lift machinery business ASPs Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
10% q/q. We pencil in 2Q PAT of Rp1.5tn, +36% y/y and flat q/q. Our
FY17/18 EPS estimates are 5% ahead of consensus, and 2Q results as we
envisage should prompt upward earnings revisions. We rate UNTR OW
with a Rp31,500 PT.
JCNC vs. Astra: JCNC has held up relative to Astra in the recent drop.
The 5.5% relative move bolsters our opinion that flows, rather than
fundamentals, have driven Astras stock move. We expect JCNC to
report 2Q earnings growth of 5% y/y, with Astra contributing 83% of net
income.
Equity Ratings and Price Targets
Mkt Cap Price Rating Price Target
Company Ticker ($ mn) CCY Price Cur Prev Cur Prev
Astra International ASII IJ 24,637.50 IDR 8,100 OW n/c 9,200 n/c
United Tractors UNTR IJ 8,100.16 IDR 28,900 OW n/c 31,500 n/c
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd JCNC SP 12,128.98 SGD 41.80 OW n/c 51.00 n/c
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 25 Jul 17.
See page 18 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EDI SULISTIYANTO at PT KRESNA SEKURITAS
Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com
We have observed Astras stock price as sensitive over the last several years to
foreign portfolio flows into Indonesias equity market. Astra tends to perform during
periods of high foreign flows and lag during phases when outflows dominate.
Figure 1: Astra and net foreign flows into JCI

10,000 12,000
9,000 10,000
8,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
5,000
4,000 ASII: Rp / share Cumm Foreign Flow ($mn, RHS) 2,000
3,000 -
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: Bloomberg.
We attribute Astras higher flow sensitivity to its relatively high foreign ownership.
Foreign investors control about 54% of the shares registered at the Indonesian
Depository Company. Astras foreign holdings are 84% of its free float (or 92% of
the total equity of the company, including JCNC). We think this high ownership
level increases its sensitivity to foreign equity in/outflows compared to the broader
market.
Figure 2: Astra: Foreign ownership (blue line)

91% 10,000
89%
8,000
Foreign holding (% of float)
87%
85% 6,000
83%
81% 4,000
79%
2,000
77% ASII Max & min Price (RHS)
75% -
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: KSEI, Bloomberg. Expressed as a % of dematerialized shares, which in Astras case corresponds to free float.
After a period of high inflows ($1.6bn in 5MFY17), equity flows recently turned
negative from Indonesia. Foreign investors have extracted $810mn in July, with
flows negative for the last 16 consecutive sessions, the longest such streak this year.
We see this as the prime factor behind Astras 11.5% decline (-12% vs. JCI/MSCI)
since mid-June. We think the stocks fundamentals will return to focus as outflows
ebb and eventually reverse, justifying outperformance.
2

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Astras parent, JCNC, has held up relative to Astra. JCNC is down 3.5% in USD
terms since 3 July, while Astra declined 7% over the same period. (Indonesia
reopened for trading on 3 July after an extended market holiday, while Singapore
was open, making the latter part of June less relevant for comparison.) This
differential also adds to our view that the decline is less about company fundamentals
(Astra contributes 83% of JCNCs net income and comprises a larger proportion of
its market cap).
Figure 3: Astras performance relative to JCNC in USD terms
Source: Bloomberg. Note: Past results are not an indicator of future performance.
Figure 4: JCNC: Discount to NAV

0%
-10%
+1 SD
NAV discounts are currently
avg
below long-term average -20%
-30%
-1 SD
JCNC Disc to NAV
-40%
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
3

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
2Q earnings preview
Astra
After printing >Rp5tn in 1Q, profits may pull back to Rp4.5tn (+13% y/y, -11% q/q)
in 2Q, per our estimates. Different timing for Lebaran caused lower volumes in 2Q17
(4W -6% y/y, 2W -13% y/y), which may translate into lower auto profits despite
strong margins. We see 4W per-unit profits at Rp9mn (-4% y/y) and 2W per-unit
profits at Rp900,000 (+16% y/y). Permata Bank has turned profitable, resulting in a
stronger contribution from the financial services division (+48% y/y). A better
commodities environment should drive AALI/UNTR profits 21-33% higher y/y, in
our view.
Table 2: Astra International: 2Q profit preview

Rp in billions 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17E % y/y % q/q
Automotive 1,900 2,159 1,580 2,263 2,152 3,099 2,288 2,174 -4% -5.0%
4W 1,226 1,245 838 1,368 1,308 1,639 1,271 1,234 -10% -2.9%
Components (41) 169 60 82 83 78 102 100 22% -1.7%
2W 715 745 682 812 761 1,382 915 839 3% -8.3%
AALI (202) 314 333 307 273 754 638 371 21% -41.9%
Fin Svcs 882 641 641 640 793 (1,316) 1,124 950 48% -15.5%
Hvy Eqpt 1,322 526 442 697 754 1,138 902 909 30% 0.7%
Others 43 375 116 97 189 204 135 120 23% -11.1%
Total 3,945.0 4,014 3,112 4,004 4,161 3,879 5,087 4,523 13% -11.1%
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 5: Astra International: 4W/2W profit per unit

1.2 2W Profit per unit (LHS, Rp mn) 4W Profit per unit (RHS, Rp mn) 13
1.1 12
11
1.0
10
0.9 9
0.8 8
7
0.7
6
0.6 5
0.5 4
4QFY09 2QFY10 4QFY10 2QFY11 4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13 2QFY14 4QFY14 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17E
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
UNTR
Higher Komatsu (2Q: +60% y/y) and mining contracting volume (+10% y/y)
continue to drive revenue higher (+11% y/y). From its own coal mining, softer
volumes should be partly offset by higher coal prices. We anticipate a stronger gross
margin of 21.7%. There should be minimal impact from FX, given that Rupiah has
been stable.
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(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Table 3: UNTR: 2Q preview

Rp in billions 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17E % y/y % q/q
Coal production (mn tons) 30.0 24.5 25.3 28.8 30.6 25.0 27.7 9.5% 10.8%
Komatsu sales (units) 325 499 537 552 593 847 841 56.6% -0.7%
Own coal sales (mn tons) 0.7 1.8 2.7 1.3 1.1 1.9 1.7 -37.2% -10.5%
Construction machinery revs 2,875 3,371 3,493 3,785 3,969 4,792 4,696 34.4% -2.0%
Coal mining contract revs 7,177 5,583 5,980 6,168 6,272 6,299 6,400 7.0% 1.6%
Mining 497 1,284 1,909 1,033 898 2,082 1,810 -5.2% -13.1%
Construction 504 458 486 346 504 506 500 2.9% -1.3%
Net revenue 11,053 10,696 11,868 11,334 11,642 13,679 13,407 13.0% -2.0%
Cost of revenue 8,282 8,810 9,602 8,904 8,561 10,823 10,542 9.8% -2.6%
Gross profit 2,771 1,886 2,265 2,429 3,081 2,857 2,864 26.4% 0.3%
Gross margins 25.1% 17.6% 19.1% 21.4% 26.5% 20.9% 21.4%
Selling exps 155 132 140 150 212 179 185 32.3% 3.3%
General exps 778 483 563 521 753 593 650 15.4% 9.7%
Operating profit (OPBIT) 1,838 1,270 1,562 1,758 2,115 2,085 2,029 29.9% -2.7%
Assoc & Jt ops 29 15 16 20 16 26 20 27.8% -22.3%
Interest costs 85 73 122 114 181 192 190 55.2% -1.3%
Interest income 110 99 155 194 234 273 250 61.1% -8.3%
OPBT 1,891 1,311 1,611 1,858 2,184 2,191 2,109 31.0% -3.7%
Other income/loss (105) (39) 47 (125) 113 (95)
Gains/losses from asset sales 18 77 (77) 113 6 7
PBT before FX 1,805 1,349 1,581 1,846 2,303 2,103 2,109 33.4% 0.3%
Fx gains/losses (522) (398) (101) (145) 295 (53) (2) -98.2% -96.6%
PBT 1,283 950 1,480 1,701 2,598 2,050 2,108 42.4% 2.8%
Tax 477 202 354 395 675 474 506 42.9% 6.8%
Net profit 806 749 1,126 1,307 1,923 1,576 1,602 42.2% 1.6%
Minority interests (74) 18 (40) 76 48 75 75 -288.8% 0.3%
Consolidated net profits 880 731 1,123 1,274 1,875 1,501 1,527 35.9% 1.7%
Other extraord/non-rec Items (2,600) - - -
Reported net profits (1,720) 731 1,123 1,274 1,875 1,501 1,527 35.9% 1.7%
Core net income 1,493 965 1,248 1,317 1,590 1,568 1,507 20.8% -3.9%
Tax rate 37.2% 21.2% 23.9% 23.2% 26.0% 23.1% 24.0%
Gross margin 25.1% 17.6% 19.1% 21.4% 26.5% 20.9% 21.4%
Operating margin 16.6% 11.9% 13.2% 15.5% 18.2% 15.2% 15.1%
Table 4: Jardine Cycle & Carriage: 2Q preview

US$ in millions 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17E % y/y % q/q
Astra 60.0 110.5 145.9 151.1 118.7 184.5 168.9 16% -8%
Other Motors 39.3 35.2 43.0 34.4 54.1 22.5 30.0 -30% 33%
Singapore 11.1 9.9 11.7 11.5 16.3 11.9 15.0 28% 26%
Malaysia 1.3 1.4 2.9 1.1 0.2 - 3.0 3%
Tunas Ridean 2.9 3.4 5.9 4.5 4.4 3.4 4.0 -32% 18%
Vietnam 23.7 20.5 22.6 17.4 33.1 7.4 8.0 -65% 8%
Myanmar 0.3 - -0.1 -0.1 0.1 (0.2) -
Other interests 11.6 - 15.3 6.7 11.2 - 10.0
Siam City Cement 6.6 - -
REE 5.0 - -
Less: Corporate costs (3.7) (5.1) (5.2) (5.0) (5.3) (5.0) (5.0) -4% 0%
Less: Withholding taxes (16.8) (7.7) (1.0) (17.7)
-
Attributable profits 90.4 140.6 191.3 186.2 161.0 202.0 203.9 7% 1%
Astra contribution % 66.4% 78.6% 76.3% 81.1% 73.7% 91.3% 82.8%

Non-Astra 56.3% 25.0% 30.5% 22.1% 40.6% 11.1% 19.6%
5

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Astra International
Astra International Tbk (Reuters: ASII.JK, Bloomberg: ASII IJ)
Company Data Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E
Shares O/S (mn) 40,480 Revenue (Rp bn) 201,701 184,196 181,084 202,954 221,473
Market Cap (Rp bn) 327,888.00 Net Profit (Rp bn) 20,837 16,015 15,156 20,083 23,190
Market Cap ($ bn) 24.64 EPS (Rp) 514.76 395.63 374.41 496.13 572.86
Price (Rp) 8,100 DPS (Rp) 213.34 159.86 168.48 223.26 257.79
Date Of Price 25 Jul 17 Revenue growth (%) 4.0% (8.7%) (1.7%) 12.1% 9.1%
Free Float(%) 49.9% EPS growth (%) 7.3% (23.1%) (5.4%) 32.5% 15.5%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 33.97 ROCE 14.3% 11.5% 11.0% 11.1% 11.7%
3M - Avg daily val (Rp mn) 296,625.10 ROE 25.1% 17.8% 14.2% 17.1% 17.8%
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 22.3 P/E (x) 15.7 20.5 21.6 16.3 14.1
JCI 5813.54 P/BV (x) 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4
Exchange Rate 13,308.49 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.9 12.5 13.0 11.3 10.0
Price Target End Date 31-Dec-17 Dividend Yield 2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2%
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Astra International (Overweight; Price Target: Rp9,200)
Investment Thesis
Our longstanding thesis on Astra has been that it needs to deliver a Rp5tn/quarter
profit run rate for the stock to break out from a trading range into higher
territory. Astra delivered that in 1Q, with PAT of Rp5.1tn, giving us confidence that
FY17 is the year the earnings trajectory will lift, fueled by a recovery in 4W volumes
(industry volumes were >100,000 in March), better fundamentals at commodity-
related subsidiaries UNTR and Astra Agro, and a normalization of profits in financial
services.
Valuation
We use a DCF/DDM-based model to value Astras unlisted businesses and apply J.P.
Morgan price targets (also derived using DCF) for listed subsidiaries UNTR and
AALI. We use an 7.5% risk-free rate and 6% equity risk premium. Our PT of
Rp9,200 assumes that Astra reverts back to its previous P/E range and applies a
conservative 16x 12M fwd P/E in Dec-17 vs. 17.4x currently. Our PT is in line with
Astras 52-week high.
Risks to Rating and Price Target

Our thesis is predicated on a cyclical recovery in auto demand continuing and Bank
Permata (45%-owned associate company) turning back into a profit contributor. The
primary risk is that one of these does not bear out. Other risks include: (1) weak
Toyota Avanza sales; (2) operational risk from a restructured Toyota distribution
structure; (3) earnings risks in commodity-related subsidiaries UNTR and AALI; and
(4) equity flows turning negative, as stock prices correlate with flows.
6

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
United Tractors
PT United Tractors tbk (Reuters: UNTR.JK, Bloomberg: UNTR IJ)
Company Data Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
Shares O/S (mn) 3,730 Revenue (Rp bn) 49,348 45,539 55,201 62,485 65,691
Market Cap (Rp bn) 107,800.90 Net Profit (Rp bn) 3,853 5,002 7,100 8,008 8,458
Market Cap ($ bn) 8.10 EPS (Rp) 1,033.01 1,340.97 1,903.46 2,146.82 2,267.35
Price (Rp) 28,900 DPS (Rp) 796.00 583.00 856.56 966.07 1,020.31
Date Of Price 25 Jul 17 Revenue growth (%) (7.1%) (7.7%) 21.2% 13.2% 5.1%
Free Float(%) - EPS growth (%) (28.1%) 29.8% 41.9% 12.8% 5.6%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 4.60 ROCE 15.5% 12.4% 14.9% 14.6% 14.0%
3M - Avg daily val (Rp mn) 120,868.80 ROE 17.1% 12.4% 16.6% 17.1% 16.4%
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 9.1 P/E (x) 28.0 21.6 15.2 13.5 12.7
JCI 5813.54 P/BV (x) 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
Exchange Rate 13,308.49 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 8.3 6.3 5.5 5.0
Price Target End Date 30-Jun-18 Dividend Yield 2.8% 2.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5%
Price Target (Rp) 31,500 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

United Tractors (Overweight; Price Target: Rp31,500)
Investment Thesis
UNTRs recent guidance lift and May release give us confidence in our thesis that
coal volumes are growing, driving both equipment sales and mining contracting
fundamentals. After revenue declines in FY15/16, we now expect revenue growth to
return in FY17/18 (16%/15%), driven by rising volume and ASPs across UNTRs
four major business units. We think UNTR will outperform the market, given its
superior earnings growth (36%/16% in FY17E/18E).
Valuation
The market seems to consider UNTR a late cyclical stock. We argue that UNTR will
sustain its premium valuation due to above-market earnings growth. We set our price
target of Rp31,500 by Jun-18 at a 14.3x fwd P/E, sustaining the current multiple.

Key downside risks include: (1) we think UNTR has geared its cost structure to
sustain at a $70 coal price environment coal prices falling below that is a key risk;
(2) monthly Komatsu volume below 200 units; and (3) continuing foreign outflows,
which may hamper the P/E.
7

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd (Reuters: JCYC.SI, Bloomberg: JCNC SP)
Company Data $ in mn, year-end Dec FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
Shares O/S (mn) 395 Revenue ($ mn) 15,718 15,764 18,615 20,107 20,218
Market Cap ($ mn) 12,129 Recurring Profit ($ mn) 688 702 903 1,072 1,119
Market Cap ($ mn) 12,129 DPS ($) 0.69 0.74 0.71 0.80 0.95
Price (S$) 41.80 Revenue growth (%) (15.8%) 0.3% 18.1% 8.0% 0.5%
Date Of Price 25 Jul 17 EPS growth (%) (20.5%) (3.2%) 28.6% 18.8% 4.4%
Free Float(%) - ROCE 8.9% 11.5% 9.9% 10.8% 10.4%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 0.26 ROE 13.9% 12.7% 14.9% 15.9% 14.9%
3M - Avg daily val (S$ mn) 11.51 P/E (x) 16.7 17.3 13.4 11.3 10.8
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 8.5 P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5
MSCI-Sg 1726.40 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.0 11.1 10.4 9.1 8.9
Exchange Rate 1.36 Dividend Yield 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1%
Price Target End Date 31-Dec-17 EPS ($) 1.83 1.78 2.28 2.71 2.83
Price Target (S$) 51.00 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd (Overweight; Price Target: S$51.00)
Investment Thesis
We think JCNC will continue to trail Astra as Indonesias auto cycle recovers. We
also see JCNC as an inexpensive entry route to Astra, as the former trades at a P/E
discount. We think the valuation gap should narrow. In addition, JCNCs earnings
base is more diversified; it has exposure to Vietnam, a region that delivers higher real
GDP growth than Indonesia.
Valuation
We are OW JCNC with a Dec-17 PT of S$51. This implies a reversion to a 26%
NAV discount and a 13.5x forward P/E.

Key downside risks to our thesis include: (1) as a holding company, JC&C has
limited cash flows beyond dividends and is at risk of widening holding company
discounts; (2) profits could get stuck in a range because of a difficult economic or
policy environment; and (3) local currency weakness.
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(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Astra International
Key catalysts for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view:
1) 4W and 2W sales 1) Stronger 4W and 2W demand 1) Prolonged asset quality issues at Bank
2) Performance of major subsidiaries 2) Improving commodity outlook, which should help Permata
UNTR and AALI, as well as financial UNTR and AALI 2) Tightening competition, which would
services impact profitability and market share
Key financial metrics FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E Valuation and price target basis
Revenues (Rp bn) 184,196 181,084 202,954 221,473 Our PT of assumes that Astra trades at a 16x 12M fwd P/E in Dec-
Revenue growth (%) -8.7% -1.7% 12.1% 9.1% 17. We also a DCF/DDM-based model to value Astras unlisted
EBITDA (Rp bn) 32,614 31,350 35,050 39,118 businesses, while applying J.P. Morgan price targets (also derived
EBITDA margin (%) 17.7% 17.3% 17.3% 17.7% using DCF) for listed subsidiaries UNTR and AALI. We use a 7.5%
risk-free rate and 6% equity risk premium.
Tax rate (%) -15.8% -12.6% -16.6% -16.9%
Net profit (Rp bn) 16,015 15,156 20,083 23,190
EPS (Rp) 396 374 496 573
EPS growth (%) -23.1% -5.4% 32.5% 15.5%
DPS (Rp) 160 168 223 258
BVPS (Rp) 2,521 2,766 3,051 3,378
Operating cash flow (Rp bn) 25,543 24,386 26,398 30,929
Free cash flow (Rp bn) 20,350 14,915 14,099 18,267
Interest cover (X) (225) 682 (94) (48) DCF key assumptions
Net margin (%) 8.7% 8.4% 9.9% 10.5%
Sales/avg. assets (X) 0.77 0.71 0.76 0.79 Risk-free rate: 7.5%
Debt/equity (%) 69% 63% 57% 52% Market risk premium: 6.0%
Net debt/equity (%) 43% 37% 23% 18% Beta: 1.39
ROE (%) 17.8% 14.2% 17.1% 17.8% Debt/equity: 0
Key model assumptions FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Cost of debt: -NA-
4W sales (units) 510,227 590,976 653,843 678,300 Terminal g: -NA-
2W sales (units) 4,453,888 4,380,888 4,817,184 4,968,000
UNTR net profit (Rp bn) 6,453 5,002 6,796 7,852
AALI net profit (Rp bn) 619 1,564 1,709 1,815
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Equity
Sensitivity analysis EPS value JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates
Sensitivity to FY16E FY16E EPS (Rp) FY17E FY18E
10% chg. in 4W sales 2.0% 2.6%
10% chg. in 2W sales 1.3% 1.5% JPMe 496 573
10% chg. in UNTR net profit 1.8% 1.7% Consensus 486 539
10% chg. in AALI net profit 0.9% 0.8% JPMe vs. consensus 2.1% 6.4%
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Comparative metrics
Price Mkt cap P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) P/BV (x) YTD
(LC) ($M) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E stock perf.
Astra International 8,100 24,604 20.9 16.7 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.6 -2.1%
Indomobil Sukses International 1,090 226 549.1 N/A N/A N/A 0.5 0.6 -16.8%
United Tractors 28,900 8,088 23.3 15.9 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.4 36.0%
Jardine Matheson 64 46,493 17.3 15.5 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.1 15.0%
Jardine Strategic 42 46,554 16.3 15.2 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 25.9%
Jardine Cycle & Carriage 42 12,138 17.4 13.8 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.4%
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 25 Jul 2017. Past results are not an indicator of future performance.
9

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
United Tractors
1) Komatsu monthly sales 1) Earnings surprise on currency and better margins Lower coal prices, which could cause weaker
2) Coal price outlook 2) EPS growth prompting a P/E rerating earnings and PE compression
3) Rupiah depreciation
Key financial metrics FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E Valuation and price target basis
Revenues (Rp bn) 45,539 55,201 62,485 65,691 Our Jun-18 PT of Rp31,500 implies a 14.3x fwd P/E, sustaining
Revenue growth (%) -7.7% 21.2% 13.2% 5.1% UNTRs current P/E multiple.
EBITDA (Rp bn) 10,129 13,396 15,275 16,567
EBITDA margin (%) 22.2% 24.3% 24.4% 25.2%
Tax rate (%) 24.2% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Adj. net profit (Rp bn) 5,104 7,100 8,008 8,458
Adj. EPS (Rp) 1,341 1,903 2,147 2,267
EPS growth (%) 41.9% 12.8% 5.6%
DPS (Rp) 583 857 966 1,020
BVPS (Rp) 10,954 12,001 13,182 14,429
Operating cash flow (Rp bn) 9,538 11,740 11,744 14,087 DCF key assumptions
Free cash flow (Rp bn) 6,557 3,252 4,711 7,220
Interest cover (X) (53) (64) (269) (214) Risk-free rate: 8.00%
Net margin (%) 11.2% 12.9% 12.8% 12.9% Market risk premium: 8.00%
Sales/assets (X) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Beta: 0.97
Debt/equity (%) 2.6% 10.1% 12.2% 11.2% Cost of equity: 15.8%
Net debt/equity (%) -43.6% -38.6% -35.3% -36.1% WACC: 12.5%
ROE (%) 12.4% 16.6% 17.1% 16.4% Long-term D/E: 30%
Key model assumptions FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
Komatsu sales (units) 2,181 3,300 3,600 3,600
Mining contracting volume (mMT) 109.2 115 120 125
Average Rp/USD rate 13,305 13,387 13,300 13,300
Own coal sales (mMT) 6.81 7.20 8.00 8.50
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Sensitivity analysis EBITDA EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates

Sensitivity to FY17E FY17E EPS (Rp) FY17E FY18E
Impact of each 2.5% Komatsu volume 0.4% 0.6%
Impact of each 1.5% coal contracted 1.1% 1.7% JPMe 1,903 2,147
Impact of each 1% Rp depreciation 1.0% 2.9% Consensus 1,818 2,052
Impact of each 2.5% own coal 0.5% 0.7% % difference 4.7% 4.6%
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Comparative metrics
CMP Mkt cap P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) YTD
United Tractors 28,125 7,418 15.5 13.7 7.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 32.4%
Caterpillar 108 54,644 25.3 20.0 11.1 9.4 4.2 4.0 16.6%
Sime Darby Berhad 10 14,261 NA 23.7 14.8 14.0 1.8 1.7 17.9%
Toromont Industries 47 2,745 21.8 19.5 11.6 10.8 3.7 3.3 10.6%
Komatsu 2,913 24,581 21.8 18.3 10.8 9.2 1.7 1.6 10.0%
10

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Jardine Cycle & Carriage

1) Astra business performance and stock 1) A better-than-expected cyclical upturn in Indonesia 1) Policy linked to slowing of Singapore auto
price 2) Better execution in Thailand and Vietnam market
2) Rp/$ rate movement 3) EPS-accretive corporate actions 2) Our view on JCNCs relative attractiveness
3) Corporate actions and narrowing of the value gap with Astra is
based on a weak Rupiah view
Key financial metrics FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Valuation and price target basis
Revenues ($ mn) 15,764 18,615 20,107 20,218 Our Dec-17 PT of S$51 is based on a 13.5x forward P/E and implies a
Revenue growth (%) 18.1% 8.0% 0.5% reversion to a 26% NAV discount.
EBITDA ($ mn) 2,087 2,153 2,422 2,426
EBITDA margin (%) 13.2% 11.6% 12.0% 12.0%
Tax rate (%) 18.0% 21.6% 20.8% 19.3%
Net profit ($ mn) 702 903 1,072 1,119
EPS ($) 1.78 2.28 2.71 2.83
EPS growth (%) 28.6% 18.8% 4.4%
DPS ($) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9
BVPS ($) 14.6 16.1 18.0 19.9
Operating cash flow ($ mn) 382.7 1,652.4 1,151.9 1,261.4
Free cash flow ($ mn) (87.6) 551.7 152.2 388.6
Interest cover (X) 603.6 NM NM NM
Net margin (%) 4.5% 4.8% 5.3% 5.5%
Sales/assets (X) 0.76 0.83 0.83 0.79 Valuation assumptions
Debt/equity (%) 44.0% 40.4% 37.2% 35.3%
Net debt/equity (%) 23.6% 18.4% 16.9% 17.3% 12M EPS ($) in Dec-17: 2.71
ROE (%) 12.7% 14.9% 15.9% 14.9% Astra 12M P/E (x): 15
Discount applied: -14%
Key model assumptions FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E 12M Fwd target P/E (x): 13.5
Astra PAT (Rp bn) 15,156 19,641 22,581 22,581 Current SoP discount: -26%
Source: Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Sensitivity analysis EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates

Sensitivity to FY17E NAV EPS ($) FY17E FY18E
10% change in Astra PAT 9% JPMe 2.28 2.71
10% change in Astra stock price 10.1% Consensus 2.22 2.47
10% change in TURI stock price 0.1% % diff. 3.0% 9.9%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Comparative metrics
Price Mkt cap P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) P/BV (x) YTD
Jardine Cycle & Carriage 42 12,251 14.0 12.6 2.8 3.1 2.0 1.8 2.4%
Indomobil Sukses International 1,100 228 0.3 0.6 0.6 -16.0%
UMW Holdings BHD 6 1,561 26.1 16.5 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.4 35.5%
Jardine Matheson 64 46,639 15.5 14.5 2.4 2.5 1.1 1.1 15.4%
Jardine Strategic 42 47,032 15.4 14.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 27.2%
11

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Astra International: Summary of Financials

Income Statement FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E Cash Flow Statement FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
Revenue 184,196 181,084 202,954 221,473 221,473 Cash flow from operating activities 25,543 24,386 26,398 30,929 -
COGS (136,224) (133,903) (149,629) (163,336) - o/w Depreciation & amortization 7,870 7,542 9,055 9,955 -
Gross profit 49,769 48,408 54,924 60,037 - o/w Changes in working capital 3,138 1,655 (2,741) (2,216) -
SG&A (17,155) (17,058) (19,874) (20,919) -
Adj. EBITDA 32,614 31,350 35,050 39,118 221,473 Cash flow from investing activities (10,860) (19,761) (6,121) (19,068) -
D&A (7,870) (7,542) (9,055) (9,955) - o/w Capital expenditure (5,079) (9,509) (12,000) (12,000) -
Adj. EBIT 24,744 23,808 25,995 29,163 221,473 as % of sales 2.8% 5.3% 5.9% 5.4% -
Net Interest 145 (46) 371 821 -
Adj. PBT 24,321 22,253 29,674 34,049 221,473 Cash flow from financing activities (8,276) (1,955) (7,387) (8,935) -
Tax (5,142) (3,951) (5,809) (6,603) - o/w Dividends paid (6,471) (6,820) (9,037) (10,435) -
Minority Interest (3,164) (3,146) (3,781) (4,256) - o/w Shares issued/(repurchased) 0 0 0 0 -
Adj. Net Income 17,566 15,156 20,083 23,190 221,473 o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) 577 261 0 0 -
.
Reported EPS 395.63 374.41 496.13 572.86 - Net change in cash 6,407 2,670 12,889 2,925 -
Adj. EPS 433.94 374.41 496.13 572.86 -
Free cash flow to firm 20,350 14,915 14,099 18,267 -
DPS 159.86 168.48 223.26 257.79 - y/y Growth 36.0% (26.7%) (5.5%) 29.6% -
Payout ratio 40.4% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% -
Shares outstanding 40,480 40,480 40,480 40,480 -
.
Balance Sheet FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E Ratio Analysis FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
Cash and cash equivalents 27,102 29,357 43,045 45,970 - Gross margin 27.0% 26.7% 27.1% 27.1% -
Accounts receivable 21,277 23,390 24,916 28,529 - EBITDA margin 17.7% 17.3% 17.3% 17.7% 100.0%
Inventories 18,337 17,771 17,196 19,787 - EBIT margin 13.4% 13.1% 12.8% 13.2% 100.0%
Other current assets 6,233 6,250 5,560 6,068 - Net profit margin 9.5% 8.4% 9.9% 10.5% 100.0%
Current assets 73,433 77,667 90,817 100,454 -
PP&E 58,545 60,512 63,457 65,501 - ROE 17.8% 14.2% 17.1% 17.8% 323.9%
LT investments - - - - - ROA 7.3% 6.0% 7.5% 8.2% 152.3%
Other non current assets 113,457 123,676 117,797 124,866 - ROCE 11.5% 11.0% 11.1% 11.7% 213.3%
Total assets 245,435 261,855 272,071 290,820 - SG&A/Sales 9.3% 9.4% 9.8% 9.4% -
Net debt/Equity 34.0% 29.1% 18.3% 15.0% -
Short term borrowings 36,202 45,820 45,820 45,820 - Net debt/EBITDA 132.0% 129.7% 79.2% 63.5% -
Payables 20,557 22,489 21,762 24,440 -
Other short term liabilities 19,483 20,770 19,017 20,834 - Sales/Assets (x) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.5
Current liabilities 76,242 89,079 86,599 91,094 - Assets/Equity (x) 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1
Long-term debt 34,447 25,090 25,090 25,090 - Interest cover (x) NM 681.5 NM NM -
Other long term liabilities 8,213 7,780 8,430 8,930 - Operating leverage 92.6% 223.8% 76.0% 133.6% -
Total liabilities 118,902 121,949 120,119 125,114 - Tax rate 21.1% 17.8% 19.6% 19.4% -
.
Shareholders' equity 102,043 111,951 123,497 136,751 - Revenue y/y Growth (8.7%) (1.7%) 12.1% 9.1% 0.0%
Minority interests 24,490 27,955 28,455 28,955 - EBITDA y/y Growth (6.0%) (3.9%) 11.8% 11.6% 466.2%
Total liabilities & equity 245,435 261,855 272,071 290,820 - EPS y/y Growth (21.9%) (13.7%) 32.5% 15.5% -
.
BVPS 2,520.83 2,765.59 3,050.81 3,378.24 - Valuation FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
y/y Growth 6.9% 9.7% 10.3% 10.7% - P/E (x) 18.7 21.6 16.3 14.1 -
P/BV (x) 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 -
Net debt/(cash) 43,063 40,654 27,765 24,840 - EV/EBITDA (x) 12.5 13.0 11.3 10.0 -
Dividend Yield 2.0% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2% -
.
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: Rp in billions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which
12

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
United Tractors: Summary of Financials

Revenue 49,348 45,539 55,201 62,485 65,691 Cash flow from operating activities 10,026 9,538 11,740 11,744 14,087
COGS (37,645) (35,878) (42,659) (48,620) (51,215) o/w Depreciation & amortization 3,999 3,423 4,324 5,090 5,780
Gross profit 12,835 11,175 14,298 17,503 18,359 o/w Changes in working capital 1,840 1,294 115 (1,555) (351)
SG&A 0 0 0 0 0
Adj. EBITDA 12,585 10,129 13,396 15,275 16,567 Cash flow from investing activities 302 (2,781) (8,680) (7,640) (7,959)
D&A (3,999) (3,423) (4,324) (5,090) (5,780) o/w Capital expenditure (3,033) (2,836) (8,330) (6,990) (6,809)
Adj. EBIT 8,587 6,706 9,071 10,185 10,786 as % of sales 6.1% 6.2% 15.1% 11.2% 10.4%
Net Interest 72 191 210 57 77
Adj. PBT 8,884 6,730 9,467 10,677 11,277 Cash flow from financing activities (4,945) (2,729) (95) (2,604) (4,006)
Tax (2,525) (1,626) (2,367) (2,669) (2,819) o/w Dividends paid (2,969) (2,175) (3,195) (3,604) (3,806)
Minority Interest 95 (102) 0 0 0 o/w Shares issued/(repurchased) 0 0 0 0 0
Adj. Net Income 6,358 4,900 7,100 8,008 8,458 o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) (412) (1,114) 3,600 1,500 0
.
Reported EPS 1,033.01 1,340.97 1,903.46 2,146.82 2,267.35 Net change in cash 5,383 4,028 2,964 1,500 2,122
Adj. EPS 1,704.55 1,313.55 1,903.46 2,146.82 2,267.35
Free cash flow to firm 6,941 6,557 3,252 4,711 7,220
DPS 796.00 583.00 856.56 966.07 1,020.31 y/y Growth 44.8% (5.5%) (50.4%) 44.9% 53.2%
Payout ratio 77.1% 43.5% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%
Shares outstanding 3,730 3,730 3,730 3,730 3,730
.
Cash and cash equivalents 15,676 19,703 22,668 24,168 26,289 Gross margin 26.0% 24.5% 25.9% 28.0% 27.9%
Accounts receivable 11,480 11,042 12,855 15,407 16,198 EBITDA margin 25.5% 22.2% 24.3% 24.4% 25.2%
Inventories 8,328 7,108 9,074 10,272 10,799 EBIT margin 17.4% 14.7% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4%
Other current assets 4,038 4,587 2,269 2,568 2,700 Net profit margin 12.9% 10.8% 12.9% 12.8% 12.9%
Current assets 39,522 42,440 46,865 52,415 55,986
PP&E 12,660 12,072 16,078 17,978 19,007
ROE 17.1% 12.4% 16.6% 17.1% 16.4%
LT investments 1,937 1,305 1,655 2,305 3,455
ROA 10.4% 7.8% 10.4% 10.4% 10.1%
Other non current assets 7,597 8,174 8,174 8,174 8,174
ROCE 15.5% 12.4% 14.9% 14.6% 14.0%
Total assets 61,715 63,991 72,773 80,872 86,621
SG&A/Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net debt/Equity (34.3%) (43.6%) (38.6%) (35.3%) (36.1%)
Short term borrowings 1,136 1,028 4,213 5,963 5,963 Net debt/EBITDA (106.9%) (183.5%) (134.0%) (117.5%) (121.2%)
Payables 13,407 14,119 15,123 17,119 17,998
Other short term liabilities 3,737 3,208 3,781 4,280 4,499 Sales/Assets (x) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Current liabilities 18,280 18,356 23,118 27,362 28,460 Assets/Equity (x) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Long-term debt 1,091 85 500 250 250 Interest cover (x) NM NM NM NM NM
Other long term liabilities 3,094 2,928 2,628 2,328 2,328 Operating leverage 44.2% 283.8% 166.3% 93.0% 115.1%
Total liabilities 22,465 21,369 26,246 29,941 31,038 Tax rate 28.4% 24.2% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
.
Shareholders' equity 37,920 40,860 44,765 49,170 53,821 Revenue y/y Growth (7.1%) (7.7%) 21.2% 13.2% 5.1%
Minority interests 1,331 1,762 1,762 1,762 1,762 EBITDA y/y Growth (3.4%) (19.5%) 32.3% 14.0% 8.5%
Total liabilities & equity 61,715 63,991 72,773 80,872 86,621 EPS y/y Growth (7.2%) (22.9%) 44.9% 12.8% 5.6%
.
BVPS 10,165.74 10,954.04 12,000.94 13,181.69 14,428.73 Valuation FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
y/y Growth 3.6% 7.8% 9.6% 9.8% 9.5% P/E (x) 17.0 22.0 15.2 13.5 12.7
P/BV (x) 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
Net debt/(cash) (13,449) (18,590) (17,954) (17,954) (20,076) EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 8.3 6.3 5.5 5.0
Dividend Yield 2.8% 2.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5%
.
Note: Rp in billions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which
13

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd: Summary of Financials

Revenue 15,718 15,764 18,615 20,107 20,218 Cash flow from operating activities 1,016 383 1,652 1,152 1,261
COGS - - - - - o/w Depreciation & amortization 617 587 714 780 780
Gross profit - - - - - o/w Changes in working capital 447 (64) 679 9 72
SG&A (13,936) (13,677) (16,462) (17,685) (17,792)
Adj. EBITDA 1,782 2,087 2,153 2,422 2,426 Cash flow from investing activities 461 (609) (1,371) (1,258) (1,130)
D&A (617) (587) (714) (780) (780) o/w Capital expenditure (473) (1,071) (958) (830)
Adj. EBIT 1,165 1,500 1,440 1,642 1,645 as % of sales - 3.0% 5.8% 4.8% 4.1%
Net Interest (18) (3) 38 52 53
Adj. PBT 1,618 1,954 2,201 2,508 2,520 Cash flow from financing activities (1,074) 517 129 112 (325)
Tax (343) (352) (476) (522) (487) o/w Dividends paid (273) (292) (281) (316) (375)
Minority Interest (592) (796) (822) (914) (914) o/w Shares issued/(repurchased) 748 0 0 0 0
Adj. Net Income 688 702 903 1,072 1,119 o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) (545) - (27) 0 0
.
Reported EPS 1.70 1.78 2.28 2.71 2.83 Net change in cash 403 291 410 5 (194)
Adj. EPS 1.83 1.78 2.28 2.71 2.83
Free cash flow to firm 1,112 (88) 552 152 389
DPS 0.69 0.74 0.71 0.80 0.95 y/y Growth 1756.1% (107.9%) (729.5%) (72.4%) 155.2%
Payout ratio 40.6% 41.7% 31.1% 29.5% 33.5%
Shares outstanding 395 395 395 395 395
.
Cash and cash equivalents 2,175 2,466 2,876 2,881 2,687 Gross margin - - - - -
Accounts receivable 4,232 4,637 4,552 4,748 4,748 EBITDA margin 11.3% 13.2% 11.6% 12.0% 12.0%
Inventories 1,532 1,548 1,626 1,817 1,828 EBIT margin 7.4% 9.5% 7.7% 8.2% 8.1%
Other current assets 190 202 150 175 175 Net profit margin 4.4% 4.5% 4.8% 5.3% 5.5%
Current assets 8,128 8,853 9,205 9,621 9,439
PP&E 3,448 3,599 3,840 3,968 3,968 ROE 13.9% 12.7% 14.9% 15.9% 14.9%
LT investments 1,112 957 1,087 1,217 1,347 ROA 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% 4.4% 4.4%
Other non current assets 7,420 8,181 9,210 10,239 11,268 ROCE 8.9% 11.5% 9.9% 10.8% 10.4%
Total assets 20,108 21,590 23,342 25,046 26,022 SG&A/Sales 88.7% 86.8% 88.4% 88.0% 88.0%
Net debt/Equity 27.0% 23.6% 18.4% 16.9% 17.3%
Short term borrowings 2,655 3,443 2,906 2,906 2,906 Net debt/EBITDA 167.1% 136.3% 111.8% 99.2% 107.0%
Payables 3,007 3,364 4,015 4,436 4,519
Other short term liabilities 168 181 150 150 150 Sales/Assets (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Current liabilities 5,830 6,988 7,071 7,492 7,575 Assets/Equity (x) 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4
Long-term debt 2,497 1,867 2,377 2,377 2,377 Interest cover (x) 97.9 603.6 NM NM NM
Other long term liabilities 772 658 808 958 1,108 Operating leverage 217.7% 9828.2% (22.3%) 175.0% 40.4%
Total liabilities 9,099 9,514 10,257 10,827 11,060 Tax rate 21.2% 18.0% 21.6% 20.8% 19.3%
.
Shareholders' equity 5,267 5,755 6,376 7,132 7,876 Revenue y/y Growth (15.8%) 0.3% 18.1% 8.0% 0.5%
Minority interests 5,742 6,322 6,709 7,086 7,086 EBITDA y/y Growth (27.4%) 17.1% 3.2% 12.5% 0.2%
Total liabilities & equity 20,107 21,590 23,342 25,046 26,022 EPS y/y Growth (20.5%) (3.2%) 28.6% 18.8% 4.4%
.
BVPS 13.33 14.56 16.13 18.05 19.93 Valuation FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
y/y Growth 2.5% 9.3% 10.8% 11.9% 10.4% P/E (x) 16.7 17.3 13.4 11.3 10.8
P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5
Net debt/(cash) 2,977 2,845 2,407 2,402 2,596 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.0 11.1 10.4 9.1 8.9
Dividend Yield 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1%
.
Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which
14

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
JPM Q-Profile
PT Astra International Tbk (INDONESIA / Consumer Discretionary)
As Of: 21-Jul-2017 Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com
Local Share Price Current: 8225.00 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 533.85
10,000.00 800.00
9,000.00 700.00
8,000.00 600.00
7,000.00 500.00
6,000.00 400.00
5,000.00 300.00
4,000.00 200.00
3,000.00 100.00
2,000.00 0.00
1,000.00
-100.00
0.00
-200.00
Jun/02
Mar/03
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Oct/09
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Oct/11
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Feb/13
Oct/13
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Oct/15
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Feb/17
PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 15.4x P/E Relative to Indonesia Index Current: 0.94
25.0x
2.50
20.0x 2.00
15.0x 1.50
10.0x 1.00
5.0x 0.50
0.0x 0.00
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Jun/16
Feb/17
Earnings Yield (& Local Bond Yield) Current: 6.49% Dividend Yield (Trailing) Current: 1.88
50% 12.0
12Mth fwd EY Indonesia BY Proxy
45%
10.0
40%
35% 8.0
30%
25% 6.0
20%
4.0
15%
10%
2.0
5%
0% 0.0
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
ROE (Trailing) Current: 15.45 Price/Book (Value) Current: 2.8x
60.00
6.0x P/B Trailing P/B Forward
50.00
5.0x
40.00
4.0x
30.00
3.0x
20.00
2.0x
10.00
1.0x
0.00
0.0x
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Summary
PT Astra International Tbk 25970.46 As Of: 21-Jul-17
INDONESIA 18.15746 TICKER ASII IJ EQUITY Local Price: 8,225.00
Consumer Discretionary Automobiles EPS: 533.85
Latest Min Max Median Average 2 S.D.+ 2 S.D. - % to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg
12mth Forward PE 15.41x 2.32 18.02 12.83 11.47 19.31 3.62 -85% 17% -17% -26%
P/BV (Trailing) 2.85x 0.94 5.35 2.93 2.98 5.10 0.85 -67% 88% 3% 5%
Dividend Yield (Trailing) 1.88 0.00 10.05 2.54 2.55 5.54 -0.44 -100% 434% 35% 35%
ROE (Trailing) 15.45 13.25 50.00 28.67 29.45 50.15 8.75 -14% 224% 86% 91%
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, JPMorgan Quantitative & Derivative Strategy
15

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
JPM Q-Profile
PT United Tractors Tbk (INDONESIA / Energy)
35,000.00 3,000.00
30,000.00 2,500.00
2,000.00
25,000.00
1,500.00
20,000.00
1,000.00
15,000.00
500.00
10,000.00
0.00
5,000.00
-500.00
0.00
-1,000.00
Jun/02
Mar/03
Dec/03
Sep/04
Jun/05
Mar/06
Dec/06
Sep/07
Jun/08
Mar/09
Dec/09
Sep/10
Jun/11
Mar/12
Dec/12
Sep/13
Jun/14
Mar/15
Dec/15
Sep/16
Jun/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 14.2x P/E Relative to Indonesia Index Current: 0.87
25.0x
2.50
20.0x 2.00
15.0x 1.50
10.0x 1.00
5.0x 0.50
0.0x 0.00
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
120% 9.0
12Mth fwd EY Indonesia BY Proxy
8.0
100%
7.0
80% 6.0
5.0
60%
4.0
40% 3.0
2.0
20%
1.0
0% 0.0
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
60.00
50.00 7.0x
6.0x
40.00
5.0x
30.00 4.0x
3.0x
20.00
2.0x
10.00 1.0x
0.0x
0.00
-1.0x
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Summary
PT United Tractors Tbk 8074.31 As Of: 21-Jul-17
INDONESIA 7.598386 TICKER UNTR IJ Local Price: 28,825.00
Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels EPS: 2027.95
12mth Forward PE 14.21x 0.94 23.02 12.67 11.81 20.98 2.64 -93% 62% -11% -17%
P/BV (Trailing) 2.54x 0.34 6.63 2.45 2.76 5.60 -0.08 -87% 161% -4% 9%
Dividend Yield (Trailing) 1.95 0.00 7.73 2.07 2.11 5.04 -0.82 -100% 296% 6% 8%
ROE (Trailing) 14.28 3.58 50.00 25.84 26.22 49.83 2.61 -75% 250% 81% 84%
16

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
JPM Q-Profile
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited (SINGAPORE / Consumer Discretionary)
60.00 5.00
50.00 4.00
40.00 3.00
30.00 2.00
20.00 1.00
10.00 0.00
0.00
-1.00
Jun/02
Mar/03
Dec/03
Sep/04
Jun/05
Mar/06
Dec/06
Sep/07
Jun/08
Mar/09
Dec/09
Sep/10
Jun/11
Mar/12
Dec/12
Sep/13
Jun/14
Mar/15
Dec/15
Sep/16
Jun/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 13.1x P/E Relative to Singapore Index Current: 1.05
18.0x
2.00
16.0x 1.80
14.0x 1.60
12.0x 1.40
1.20
10.0x
1.00
8.0x
0.80
6.0x 0.60
4.0x 0.40
2.0x 0.20
0.0x 0.00
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
30% 10.0
12Mth fwd EY Singapore BY Proxy
9.0
25% 8.0
7.0
20%
6.0
15% 5.0
4.0
10%
3.0
5% 2.0
1.0
0% 0.0
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
35.00
30.00 3.5x
25.00 3.0x
20.00 2.5x
2.0x
15.00
1.5x
10.00
1.0x
5.00
0.5x
0.00
0.0x
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Summary
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited 12509.02 As Of: 21-Jul-17
SINGAPORE 7.716887 TICKER JCNC SP EQUITY Local Price: 42.07
Consumer Discretionary Distributors EPS: 2.35
12mth Forward PE 13.09x 3.51 15.94 10.57 9.91 15.97 3.86 -73% 22% -19% -24%
P/BV (Trailing) 2.02x 0.89 3.49 2.01 2.03 3.33 0.73 -56% 73% 0% 1%
Dividend Yield (Trailing) 2.30 0.90 8.63 2.72 2.80 5.12 0.49 -61% 276% 18% 22%
ROE (Trailing) 13.40 12.53 30.02 20.17 20.30 30.72 9.89 -6% 124% 51% 52%
17

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research
analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document
individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of
any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per
KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or
intervention.
Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan Securities plc and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in
securities issued by Astra International, United Tractors, Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Astra International, United
Tractors, Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd.
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
entity(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: United Tractors.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from United Tractors.
Other Significant Financial Interests: J.P. Morgan owns a position of 1 million USD or more in the debt securities of Astra
International, United Tractors, Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd.
MSCI: The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of MSCI. Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information
and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, redisseminated or used to create any financial products, including any
indices. This information is provided on an 'as is' basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its
affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of
originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without
limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or
compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI and the MSCI indexes are services marks of MSCI and
its affiliates.
Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for
compendium reports and all J.P. Morgancovered companies by visiting https://jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406,
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Astra International (ASII.JK, ASII IJ) Price Chart Date Rating Share Price Price Target
(Rp) (Rp)
20-Jun-09 OW 2205 2800
OW Rp3,700
OW Rp5,500 27-Jul-09 OW 2760 2900
13,950
27-Oct-09 OW 3295 3700
OW Rp2,900
OW Rp4,500 OW Rp7,700 N Rp7,000 N Rp7,500
OW Rp9,200 26-Feb-10 OW 3685 4100
11,625
16-Apr-10 OW 4345 4500
OW Rp2,800
OW Rp4,100
OWOWRp6,300
Rp6,000
N Rp6,000
UW Rp5,200
UW Rp6,100
OWOW
Rp8,600
Rp8,900 OW Rp8,500
OW OW
Rp7,200
Rp8,000
OW Rp8,900
9,300 21-Jul-10 OW 4980 5500
Price(Rp) 29-Oct-10 OW 5645 6300
6,975 08-Feb-11 OW 4950 6000
24-May-11 N 5920 6000
4,650 07-Oct-11 UW 6325 5200
28-Feb-12 UW 6870 6100
2,325 08-Feb-13 OW 7550 8600
28-May-13 OW 7000 8900
0 30-Jul-13 OW 6450 7700
Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec 27-Feb-15 OW 8150 8500
09 10 12 13 15 16
27-Apr-15 N 7875 7000
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. 11-Dec-15 OW 6225 7200
Initiated coverage Jun 20, 2009.
18-Apr-16 OW 7525 8000
18

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
14-Jul-16 N 7275 7500

11-Jan-17 OW 8200 8900
20-Apr-17 OW 8375 9200
Date Rating Share Price Price Target

(Rp) (Rp)
09-Nov-06 OW 6315 7800
25-Jan-07 OW 6267 7500
02-Mar-07 OW 6506 8700
13-Jun-07 OW 6985 8750
13-Jul-07 OW 8181 9000
09-Aug-07 OW 7607 10100
09-Oct-07 OW 8803 11000
09-Nov-07 OW 10621 12400
17-Jan-08 OW 11147 15600
30-Jan-08 OW 12726 16100
03-Jun-08 N 13252 13400
United Tractors (UNTR.JK, UNTR IJ) Price Chart 30-Jul-08 N 10381 11650
20-Aug-08 N 9425 10600
56,544
27-Aug-08 N 10950 10200
OWOW
Rp8,700
OW
Rp10,100
Rp15,600
N Rp10,600
OWOW
Rp7,600
Rp13,200OW Rp25,000OWUW
Rp29,000
Rp17,000
02-Dec-08 N 3325 5000
47,120 12-Feb-09 OW 5350 7600
OW OW
Rp7,500
OWRp9,000
Rp12,400
N Rp11,650
N Rp5,000
OW OW
Rp11,200
Rp16,300
OW Rp24,500OWUW
Rp35,000
Rp18,000 OW Rp25,000N Rp16,500
OW Rp29,000
29-Apr-09 OW 7400 9100
37,696 28-May-09 OW 10000 11200
OW Rp7,800
OW
OW Rp8,750
OW
Rp11,000
N
Rp16,100
N
Rp13,400
Rp10,200
OWOWRp9,100
Rp15,000
OWOWRp21,000
Rp23,000
OW Rp28,000
OW Rp32,500
N Rp20,500
N Rp18,000
OW Rp23,500
N Rp23,500
N OW
Rp22,500
Rp22,500
OW Rp18,000
N Rp22,000
OW Rp31,500
27-Jul-09 OW 11450 13200
Price(Rp) 28,272 16-Sep-09 OW 13950 15000
23-Oct-09 OW 15900 16300
18,848 16-Apr-10 OW 19450 21000
30-Jul-10 OW 20050 23000
18-Oct-10 OW 20500 24500
9,424
25-Jan-11 OW 20200 25000
26-Jul-11 OW 25250 28000
0
01-Feb-12 OW 27850 32500
Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar
06 08 09 11 12 14 15 17 20-Apr-12 OW 31250 35000
17-Jul-12 OW 21750 29000
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Initiated coverage Nov 09, 2006. 26-Jul-12 N 21150 20500
31-Aug-12 UW 21150 18000
08-Nov-12 UW 20600 17000
28-May-13 N 17300 18000
31-Oct-13 OW 18300 23500
23-Apr-14 N 22000 23500
15-Oct-14 N 17200 22500
13-Feb-15 OW 18950 22500
27-Feb-15 OW 20000 25000
14-Apr-16 OW 15675 18000
14-Jul-16 N 15600 16500
09-Jan-17 N 21700 22000
03-Mar-17 OW 25100 29000
21-Jun-17 OW 27200 31500
19

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd (JCYC.SI, JCNC SP) Price Chart
95
Date Rating Share Price Price Target

76 N S$44 (S$) (S$)
02-Oct-12 N 49.10 53.00
N OW
S$53S$57
OW S$51OW S$50
OWOWS$49
S$42
OW S$40OWOW
S$44
S$51 08-Feb-13 OW 52.00 57.00
57
31-Jul-13 OW 40.32 51.00
Price(S$)
18-Jul-14 OW 46.00 50.00
38 23-Oct-14 N 40.49 44.00
27-Feb-15 OW 42.70 49.00
30-Jun-15 OW 33.10 42.00
19
11-Dec-15 OW 33.80 40.00
16-Nov-16 OW 39.22 44.00
0 31-Mar-17 OW 43.86 51.00
Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr
06 08 09 11 12 14 15 17
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Initiated coverage Oct 02, 2012.
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the
average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if
applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy
reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a
recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stocks expected total return is
compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts coverage universe. If it does not appear
in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analysts coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgans research
website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Srinath, Aditya: Astra International (ASII.JK), British American Tobacco (M) Bhd (BATO.KL), D&L Industries
(DNL.PS), Indofood (INDF.JK), Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK), Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd (JCYC.SI), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd
(JARD.SI), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd (JSH.SI), Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC.PS), LT Group, Inc. (LTG.PS), Matahari Department
Store (LPPF.JK), PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM.JK), PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP.JK), PT Mitra Adiperkasa, Tbk
(MAPI.JK), Puregold Price Club (PGOLD.PS), Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI.PS), Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR.JK), United
Tractors (UNTR.JK), Universal Robina Corp (URC.PS)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of July 03, 2017

Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 44% 45% 11%
IB clients* 52% 50% 31%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage 44% 50% 6%
IB clients* 68% 65% 46%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.
For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold
rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table
above.
Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered
companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http://www.jpmorganmarkets.com, contact the primary analyst
or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com. For material information about the proprietary
models used, please see the Summary of Financials in company-specific research reports and the Company Tearsheets, which are
20

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
available to download on the company pages of our client website, http://www.jpmorganmarkets.com. This report also sets out within it
the material underlying assumptions used.
Equity Analysts' Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based
upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues.
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affiliates of JPMS, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMS,
and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading
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21

(65) 6882-7138 25 July 2017
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"Other Disclosures" last revised July 22, 2017.
Copyright 2017 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.
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Completed

Astra, JC&C and UNTR

endured 16 consecutive sessions of outflows. As outflows ebb, we expect (65) 6882-7138

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Figure 1: Astra and net foreign flows into JCI

4,000 ASII: Rp / share Cumm Foreign Flow ($mn, RHS) 2,000

Figure 2: Astra: Foreign ownership (blue line)

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Figure 3: Astras performance relative to JCNC in USD terms

Figure 4: JCNC: Discount to NAV

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Table 2: Astra International: 2Q profit preview

Figure 5: Astra International: 4W/2W profit per unit

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Table 3: UNTR: 2Q preview

Table 4: Jardine Cycle & Carriage: 2Q preview

Astra contribution % 66.4% 78.6% 76.3% 81.1% 73.7% 91.3% 82.8%

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Sensitivity analysis EBITDA EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Jardine Cycle & Carriage

Sensitivity analysis EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Astra International: Summary of Financials

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

United Tractors: Summary of Financials

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd: Summary of Financials

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

14-Jul-16 N 7275 7500

Date Rating Share Price Price Target

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Date Rating Share Price Price Target

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of July 03, 2017

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Aditya Srinath Asia Pacific Equity Research

Country and Region Specific Disclosures

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