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每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 8 月 11 日
市场技术解读
交投情绪正转为谨慎…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 由于区域股市遭到中国股市重挫将近 3% 所冲击,导致大部分投资者纷纷转为谨慎,并拖累本地股市在交投情绪一片低迷下
走低。
♦ 同时,这也掩盖了昨日市场预期美国联邦储备局(Federal Reserve)可能会在周二的联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)
会议中宣布新刺激措施的利好因素。
技术解读∶
♦ 相反地,它在稍微低于移动平均线以下形成一根小阴烛,显示富时综指的短期展望或已转淡。
♦ 加上疲弱的短期动力解读,预料将会出现更多跟进卖压活动。
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请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
2010 年 8 月 11 日
每日交投策略∶
♦ 若该指数无法在近日内发动任何复苏走势,那么有关跌破该移动平均线的走势,和不断下降的每日交投量,将显示图表的短
期展望可能会在未来数日内转淡。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
8月 8月 8月 8月 8月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 4日 5日 6日 9日 10 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,359.71 -0.95 -0.1
322 362 328 293 255
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,958.16 -8.41 -0.1
363 349 367 402 409
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,810.87 -5.83 -0.2
286 276 281 256 281
无交易 各大海外指数
399 378 390 416 421
道琼斯工商指数 10,644.25 -54.50 -0.5
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,277.17 -28.52 -1.2
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,121.06 -6.73 -0.6
(百万股) 811 994 866 699 676 伦敦金融时报指数 5,376.41 -34.11 -0.6
总成交值 恒生指数 21,473.60 -327.99 -1.5
(百万令吉) 1,188 1,576 1,256 1,066 1,133 雅加达综合指数 3,057.16 -25.44 -0.8
东京日经 225 指数 9,551.05 -21.44 -0.2
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,781.13 -9.04 -0.5
令吉兑美元 3.1660 3.1540 3.1460 3.1405 3.1495 上海综合指数 2,595.27 -77.26 -2.9
曼谷综合指数 862.61 -12.57 -1.4
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 新加坡海峡时报指数 2,984.29 -10.77 -0.4
台湾加权指数 7,976.74 -57.75 -0.7
印度 Sensex 指数 18,219.99 -67.51 -0.4
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 80.25 -1.23 -1.5
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,670.00 -60.00 -2.2
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 8 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
10 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 9 月 21 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
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2010 年 8 月 11 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 本地期货指数昨日向新抛压低头,基于海外股市的显著回调迫使交易员锁定盈利。
♦ 即使隔夜美国股市收高,但吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)昨日却步步追踪中国股市的大调整。
♦ 加上疲弱的短期动力解读,我们预见来日将会有更多跟进下跌动力。
每日交投策略∶
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 8 月 1365.50 1366.00 1355.50 1356.00 -9.50 1356.00 3431 18417
10 年 9 月 1366.50 1366.50 1356.00 1356.00 -10.00 1356.00 262 668
10 年 12 月 1365.50 1365.50 1357.00 1357.00 -8.50 1356.50 92 277
11 年 3 月 1365.00 1365.00 1358.00 1358.00 -9.00 1358.00 33 138
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2010 年 8 月 11 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 华尔街股市周二向下收低,基于美国联邦储备局对经济展望所发表的悲观评论掩盖了它有意购买国库的计划。
♦ 早盘,美国各大主要指数大跌超过 1%,归咎于中国疲弱的经济数据显示下半年的经济可能会放缓。
♦ 虽然在联储局宣布它将会购买更多国库以刺激经济和维持低水平的借贷成本后,市场一度发动一轮凌厉反弹至正值区,只可
惜其后劲不足,导致市场因担忧经济复苏势头正在放缓而再度刮起卖压。
♦ 此外,联储局也如预期地将历史新低利率维持不变。
技术解读∶
♦ 即使它强力从全日低点反弹,但它仍以一根小阴烛报收。加上短期动力指标也转跌,图表正显示来日将会有更多跌势。
♦ 更重要的是,它必须捍卫移动平均线,以维护近来的上升趋势。一旦无法做到,这将会触发更多跌势至 2,190 点。
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2010 年 8 月 11 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 亚洲航空( AirAsia)(日线图) 图 8∶ 亚洲航空(单日线图)
近期将会有更多套利活动…
♦ 加上负面的动力解读,我们认为,该股可能会在近期面临更多套利活动。
技术解读∶
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
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Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
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