Issue 101

17 February 2014

MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE

MARKET TRACKER formerly known as
Seamless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker

Seamless linepipe prices ($/tonne) Source: Metal Bulletin Research

MONTHLY US API 5LB linepipe

UPDATE 2,000
E. Europe API 5LB linepipe
W. Europe 5LB linepipe
International market 1,800
China API 5LB linepipe Forecast
analysis of seamless OCTG 1,600
and linepipe
1,400

1,200

Contents
1,000
Current and forecast seamless
tube and pipe prices 3
800
Americas market analysis 4
Europe and CIS market analysis 7 600
Q1-2011 Q3-2011 Q1-2012 Q3-2012 Q1-2013 Q3-2013 Q1-2014 Q3-2014 Q1-2015
Middle East and North Africa
market analysis 9
Asia market analysis
Seamless capacity
11
US OCTG buying quiet ahead of preliminary
developments and news 14
duty determinations on imported material
Seamless OCTG prices are now around $1,365/ton for API 5CT J/K55 tonnage, down
about $10-15/ton from January, with P110 casing at around $1,950-2,000/ton at
distributors. MBR surmises that a significant price recovery is not expected to take
hold until existing inventories are worked through the market, which is likely to
be mid-year.

Japanese OCTG prices under pressure

Japanese OCTG exporters are experiencing margin pressure in the premium
connection market, with prices slipping by up to $100/tonne from last month to
$2,300 fob for L80. We do not believe this trend is likely to change in the next few
months as the MENA market, the leading export market for Japanese producers,
faces competitive pricing pressure.

as Brazilian material challenges for

market share
In the MENA market, prices for L80 grades of casing at a 7 or 9 5/8 with a non-
Chinese premium connection continue to be placed under pressure. Prices are
now reaching as low as $2,000/tonne cfr for Brazilian-origin material. This time
last year, the same grades with the same connections were being sold at around
$2,500/tonne cfr.
Published by

Chinese premium connections start to

build global acceptance
The Chinese, led by TPCO, are now making significant advances in the premium
www.metalbulletinresearch.com connection market, especially in MENA. Within the last 6 months, TPCO has now
been trialled and won a significant order from the UAEs ADNOC ADCO division.
This is the first issue of MBRs relaunched
Seamless OCTG & Linepipe Market Tracker
(formerly known as Seamless Steel Tube & Pipe Market Tracker)

Whats New?
zzA standalone Middle East section with analysis and pricing information
zzExtended coverage of US, EU, CIS and Asian OCTG and linepipe markets
zzPrices for OCTG with premium connections
zzMiddle East X65 linepipe and OCTG L80 prices
zzEastern Europe OCTG L80 prices
zzRussian billet prices
zzEU X65 linepipe prices, China X65 linepipe prices
zz A new team of analysts including James Ley, Roman Filimonov and Kim Leppold

Subscribe today and:

zz Receive the new issue of the Seamless OCTG & Linepipe Market Tracker each month
zzBenefit from additional data, downloadable into Excel
zzHave regular consultations with the editor to discuss how their forecasts affect
your business.

The most Order Now

cost-effective
www.metalbulletinstore.com/seamless
forecasting service
in the industry Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7779 8000
1875 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7246 5200
2675
$3625 sbrough@metalbulletin.com
for an annual subscription
2 current
Current
and and forecast
forecast seamless
SeaMleSS tuBetube pipe PRICES 3
& PriceS
& PiPe
Current and forecast seamless tube and pipe prices
Feb-14 Jan-14 Feb-13 Q1 2014f Q2 2014f
Country Currency Local $/tonne Local $/tonne Local $/tonne $/tonne $/tonne
USA (distributor)
OCTG casing J/K 55 (btc connection) $/ton 1,366 1,505 1,375 1,515 1,361 1,500 1,540 1,550
OCTG casing P110 (btc connection) $/ton 1,951 2,150 1,960 2,160 - - 2,150 2,165
OCTG casing P110 (premium connection) $/ton 2,237 2,465 2,241 2,470 - - 2,465 2,480
Linepipe API 5L B $/ton 1,053 1,160 1,053 1,160 1,016 1,120 1,160 1,175
Linepipe API 5L X65 $/ton 1,134 1,250 1,134 1,250 - - 1,250 1,275
Middle East (Jebel Ali cfr)
OCTG casing J/K 55 (btc connection) $/tonne 900 900 900 900 1,300 1,300 900 920
OCTG casing L80 (btc connection)
OCTG casing L80 (premium connection)
$/tonne
$/tonne
1,000
2,000 Current and Forecast Price
1,000
2,000
1,000
2,200
1,000
2,200
-
-
-
-
1,050
2,150
1,100
2,350
Linepipe API 5L B $/tonne 1,050 1,050 1,045 1,045 1,135 1,135 1,100 1,120
Linepipe API 5L X65 $/tonne 1,280 data is only available to
1,280 1,280 1,280 - - 1,180 1,250
Western European (fob)
OCTG casing J/K 55 (btc connection) /tonne 1,141 paying
1,550 1,152 subscribers.
1,570 1,252 1,670 1,560 1,550
OCTG casing L80 (premium connection) /tonne 1,582 2,150 1,578 2,150 1,668 2,225 2,180 2,170
Linepipe API 5L B /tonne 1,078 1,465 1,079 1,470 1,110 1,480 1,450 1,455
Linepipe API 5L X65 /tonne 1,240 1,685 1,240 1,690 - - 1,680 1,675
Eastern European (fob)
OCTG casing J/K 55 (btc connection) $/tonne 1,100
To subscribe,
1,1001,100 1,100
or for
1,140 1,140
a 1,100 1,100
OCTG casing L80 (btc connection)
Linepipe API 5L X42
$/tonne
$/tonne
1,225
970
preview
1,225
970
1,235
970
of our
1,235
970
-
975
data, -
975
1,205
965
1,190
968
Russia
Round billet fob $/tonne 21,291 please
610 20,683contact
612 our sales
19,785 655 615 625
OCTG casing J/K 55 (btc connection) cfr $/tonne 47,574 1,363 45,926 1,360 - - 1,370 1,375
Linepipe API 5L X65 cfr $/tonne 52,356 1,500 department
50,823 1,505 - on: - 1,505 1,515
Japan
OCTG casing J/K 55 (btc connection) $/tonne +44 (0) 20
1,770 1,780 7779 7999 1,850 1,775 1,770
OCTG casing P110 (premium connection) $/tonne 2,200 2,350 - 2,225 2,105
OCTG Cr 13 $/tonne 5,300 5,300 6,670 5,300 5,300
Linepipe API 5L B $/tonne 1,525 1,535 1,560 1,530 1,515
Linepipe API 5L X65 $/tonne 1,658 1,665 1,655 1,660 1,660
China export
OCTG casing J/K 55 (btc connection) $/tonne 850 870 910 880 880
OCTG casing P110 (btc connection) $/tonne 1,077 1,078 1,212 1,070 1,065
Linepipe API 5L B $/tonne 740 740 827 745 755
Linepipe API 5L X65 $/tonne 1,100 1,100 - 1,100 1,115
SOURCE: MBR
Note: unless specified OCTG prices relate to casing of a 7" OD

SEAMLESS
seamless OCTG
octG AND
and LINEPIPE
lInepIpe INDICATORS
Crude
crude Oil
oil Spot
spot prices Long-term
long-term natural gas prices Seamless
seamless market indicators
10
Brent-WTI spread, $/bbl
Brent-Wti N. Gas, henry
n. Henry hub,
Hub, $/mmbtu International rig count
international 0.0%
160 9
Brent Crude,
crude, $/bbl
100-day moving av.
140 WTI,
Wti, $/bbl
8
US and canada
uS Canada rig count -0.2%

120 7 200-day moving av.

100 6 Index (turkey)

MB Scrap index (Turkey) -9.0%

80 5

60 4 US hMS
uS HMS no.1
No.1 -7.1%

40 3
HMS no.2
Japan hMS No.2 (tokyo)
(Tokyo) -4.2%
20 2

0 1
Iron ore
MB iron Ore index
Index -7.8%
-20 0
Feb Jul Dec May Oct
oct Mar Aug
aug Jan Jun nov
Nov Apr
apr Sep Feb Feb Jul Dec May Oct
oct Mar Aug
aug Jan Jun nov
Nov Apr
apr Sep Feb
-11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1%
09 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 09 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14

SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR

MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer FeBruarY 2014

www.metalbulletinresearch.com FEBRUARY 2014 MBR sEAMLESSWWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM
OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER
4 americaS market analysis
US seamless OCTG prices struggle ahead of duty announcement
US land wells/rig
Market waits for duty announcement
MBR recently attended the annual convention of the NASPD, and attendees
8 relayed to us their optimism for rising demand for OCTG and linepipe
Eagle Ford Marcellus Permian Total
7 this year. The impending announcement on preliminary duties on OCTG
6
imports from the nine countries named in the trade case filing, however,
also continues to weigh on market sentiment. At the time of writing, the
5
preliminary duties, due mid-February, have yet to be announced and could
4 be delayed yet again by a severe snowstorm which closed many government
3 offices in eastern USA. Market participants remain uncertain if the duties will
be set at levels high enough to reduce the tonnage on offer at very low prices.
2

1 As they relayed their concerns to us, many repeated the caveat that
0 these long-awaited preliminary duties are just preliminary and could
Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - change drastically upon final determination, due in April. In 2008, the
2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013
preliminary duties placed on Chinese OCTG were small relative to the final
SOURCE: Baker Hughes
duty determination. Nevertheless, the duties that are placed on imports
from these countries will now, at least, require a deposit based on the
preliminary determination. A decision on the critical circumstances
US imports of seamless casing and tubing (000 tonnes) complaint is not expected at this time.
200 Asia
OCTG prices take a modest step back in February
Total EU
The seamless OCTG market remains at a relative standstill as buyers and
150 Latin America sellers wait for an indication of the magnitude of the duties in imported
material, both seamless and welded. We witnessed a rise in inventories
100 late in 2013 which took place as a result of anticipation of a slowdown in
the market early in the first quarter of this year.
50
Buyers are still well-supplied and are not returning to the market until they
have a better understanding of the duties they may face on imported material.
0 As a result, domestic seamless OCTG pricing in February declined slightly due
Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct to a slowdown in activity. Prices are now around $1,365/ton for API 5CT J/K55
10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13
tonnage with P110 casing at around $1,950-2,000/ton at distributors.
SOURCE: MBR
The tonnage of available material coupled with the lack of deals being
finished so far this year continue to drive prices to a near-term floor.
Moreover, even after the duties are announced, MBR expects the market
to take some time to work through the excess before prices can begin to
significantly rebound.

OCTG imports ended 2013 higher than arrivals in the first half of the year
while preliminary import statistics for January suggest a continuation of
that trend. US seamless OCTG imports in the August-November period
climbed 20% year-over-year, compared to August-November 2012 imports,
while imports for the full eleven months of 2013 displayed a year-over-year
decline of 11% from the January-November 2012 period.

MBR Outlook
US J/K55 casing prices Seamless OCTG prices declined in early February given the lack of
activity associated with market participants refraining from making deals
1750
1700 in anticipation of preliminary duty determinations on imported material.
1650 Meanwhile, inventories and available material on offer are plentiful giving
1600
buyers no reason to rush into the market even when duties are announced.
$/ton

1550
1500 MBR surmises that once the duties are announced, the market will begin to
1450
1400
display some price stability, but a significant price recovery is not expected
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 to take hold until existing inventories are worked through the market. A
2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 mid-year rebound is anticipated. Longer-term, seamless OCTG is poised to
SOURCE: MBR
take back market share from welded OCTG as unconventional gas drilling is
expected to rise.

MBR sEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER FEBRUARY 2014 www.metalbulletinresearch.com
4 amerIcas MarKet analYSiS
Producers eye strengthening demand
Despite the concern over imports and oversupply in the local
markets, OCTG market participants tell us that the demand
outlook remains promising especially for the higher-grade
seamless products. In the USA, seamless and welded OCTG
tend to compete for market share in about 70% of current
applications. Over time, MBR has noted that welded OCTG
apparent consumption in the USA has risen to around 50%
of total, suggesting that seamless is still preferred in some
applications where welded could potentially be used.
Nevertheless, welded OCTG is gaining traction.
americaS market analysis 5
but natural gas prices need support
Much of this confidence in increased seamless demand from
unconventional gas sources, however, still relies on the
outlook for natural gas pricing. Indeed, natural gas prices
will need to increase to over $4/mmBtu and consistently
remain over that threshold for drilling rates to increase
significantly. Since the development of the shale plays and
the technology to exploit them, which began around 2008-
09 also the start of the latest recession and its associated
prolonged slow recovery US natural gas pricing has been, in
general, lower and less volatile than prior to 2008.

With the increase in unconventional drilling, especially for
natural gas, seamless demand, as well as that for premium
products, will likely rise at least as fast as welded OCTG
consumption. Unconventional drilling for shale gas in the
USA now accounts for just under 40% of total US natural
gas drilling and is expected to increase to around 50% over
the next ten years, according to the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA).
Tight oil will increase from 45% now to around 50% of oil
drilling by 2025, but could retreat toward 40% following
2025. Coal-bed methane and tight gas production, both
unconventional drilling applications, now account for about
one third of natural gas drilling, although their combined
share is expected to fall to below 30% by 2040. The Marcellus
shale play in the northeast USA potentially holds the largest
unconventional natural gas reserves in the USA, and as
the chart illustrates, we have already witnessed strong
development in that area.
Now, with the US economy on increasingly stable footing,
natural gas demand is expected to rise and support higher
pricing, and increased drilling rates. US natural gas Henry Hub
spot prices in January averaged $4.71/mmBtu are averaging
over $5/mmBtu through early February. While much of the
short-term increase is attributed to cold weather and inventory
withdraws, pipe and tube producers point to a structural shift in
natural gas demand which will keep prices higher than in recent
years. Market participants at a recent industry event told MBR
that natural gas prices will not give back all the gains in January
and February once the cold weather retreats as demand from
industrial uses will support pricing. In fact, the EIA forecasts US
Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $4.17/mmBtu in
2014, up from $3.73/mmBtu in 2013.
Brazil increases its exports of OCTG
As discussed in the Middle East section this month of our
tracker, exports of OCTG from Brazil to that region have been
creating price pressure in the premium connection OCTG
market.

Apparent consumption of seamless pipes in key American countries by product ('000 tonne)
Country 2011 2012 Q3 2013 Oct-13 year-to-date y-o-y % chg
USA
OCTG 2311 2696 759 239 2714 17%
Line pipe 497 480 Apparent consumption data
96 29 430 5%
Canada
OCTG 339 341 is only available to paying
112 32 371 47%
Line pipe 117 134 22 6 98 -8%
Mexico subscribers.
OCTG 127 162 -5 49 155 20%
Line pipe 177 91 57 22 246 240%
Brazil
OCTG 458 453 To subscribe, or for a
72 25 340 -10%
Line pipe 108 115 21 4 70 -28%
Colombia preview of our data,
OCTG 183 101 21 0 92 2%
Line pipe 40 29 please contact our sales
7 0 34 47%
Argentina
OCTG 687 569 department on:
137 39 557 16%
Line pipe 246 220 55 16 224 23%
Ecuador +44 (0) 20 7779 7999
OCTG 150 126 14 5 95 -12%
Line pipe 51 21 5 2 25 30%
SOURCE: Customs Statistics, ISSB, MBR estimates

MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer FeBruarY 2014

www.metalbulletinresearch.com FEBRUARY 2014 MBR sEAMLESSWWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM
OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER
6 americaS market analysis amerIcas MarKet analYSiS 5
Brazil exports of seamless casing and tubing (000 tonnes) As shown in the chart there has been a rapid surge in OCTG exports from
Brazil as Sumitomo and Vallourecs new seamless mill has ramped
30 up. Vallourec & Sumitomo Tubos Do Brasil (VSB) had its inauguration in
Asia
25
September 2011. VSB is a seamless pipe mill with a total seamless pipe
Total EU
capacity of 600kt of which 50% is supplied by Vallourec and 50% is
North America
20 supplied by Sumitomo. This was Vallourecs second seamless pipe mill in
MENA
Brazil following their other 550kt seamless pipe mill in the country (VMB).
Other
15

The tonnage of OCTG being exported from Brazil nearly doubled in

10
2012 compared to 2011 increasing from 53kt up to 107kt. There was no
5 slowdown in the export growth in 2013 when Brazils seamless OCTG exports
hit over 200kt.
0
Dec Apr Aug Dec Apr Aug Dec Apr Aug Dec
10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 with North America, EU and MENA the major export markets
The North American market has become the big export market for the mill,
SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR 
with exports to this region hitting around 60kt in 2013. The MENA region
has gone from receiving nearly nothing in 2012 up to just under 40kt in
2013. The other major export market for the mill is the European market.
Brazilian rig counts vs. exchange rate
following a slowdown in Brazilian demand since H2 2013
120 Land rig count 2.6 The weak currency in Brazil in mid-2013 pushed the state owned oil
Onshore rig count 2.4 company Petrobras over the past month to slow its exploration activity,
100
BRL/$
2.2 which means fewer exploration wells. As can be seen in the chart,
80 according to Baker Hughes, rig numbers in Brazil have dropped from just
2
over 90 in June 2012 down to just over 50 in January 2014, a drop of some
60 1.8
45%, correlating with the weaker Brazilian real.
1.6
40
1.4 Vallourec has had a long standing co-operating with Petrobras dating back
20
1.2
to 1954 to supply tubular goods to the Brazilian oil industry. In addition
to a network of VAM licenses providing accessories, threading, repair and
0 1
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Inspection of VAM premium connections, VMB also has storage facilities
12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 at several of Petrobras exploration and production sites allowing VMB to
SOURCE: Baker Huges and MBR deliver just-in-time delivery to Petrobras reducing the companys storage
costs and procurement lead times. Vallourec also has an R&D team with
Petrobras to develop innovative solutions to cope with extreme drilling.
The Brazilian Real is expected to continue to remain weak into the first
half of 2014 suggesting that there will be no immediate slowdown in the
exports of OCTG from Brazil.

New and planned North American tube and pipe capacity

Company Location Type Product '000 tons start-up

Vallourec Star Youngstown, oh seamless octG 350 2013

Welded tube of canada
oMK
New and planned capacity data is only
lackawanna, nY
houston, tX
erW
erW
octG
octG
350
175
2013
2013
Borusan available to paying subscribers.
Baytown, tX erW octG 300 2014
tPco Gregory, tX seamless octG 550 2015
Prolamsa Bryan, tX erW octG/linepipe/Structural 300 2014
tenaristamsa Veracruz, Mexico seamless octG 450 2014
california Steel industries
To subscribe, or for a preview of
Fontana, ca erW linepipe/octG 400 2014
halo Steel Pipe our data, please contact our sales
Mccleary, Wa erW octG 150 2014
Benteler caddo, la seamless octG 250 2015
alita uSa department on: +44 (0) 20 7779 7999
Buffalo, nY erW octG 150 2015
Ptc hopkinsville, KY seamless octG 100 2015
tenaris Bay city, tX seamless octG 640 2016
Source: Metal Bulletin research

MBR sEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER FEBRUARY 2014

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OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer
 europe and cis market analysis 7
Russian OCTG demand hits 2M tonnes in 2013
Russian seamless OCTG imports 2012-2013 (000 tonnes)
Rising demand expected in the Russian OCTG market in the next few
months
ROW China
The OCTG market goes from strength to strength in Russia this month,
70
following its traditional seasonal trends. As of mid-February the market
60 trend is positive. Traditionally in Russia the 3rd quarter of the years sees
50 the lowest seasonal demand for OCTG procurement while the 1st quarter
sees the peak in demand. The bulk of Russias OCTG drilling takes place in
40
the north east of the country which experiences harsh winter conditions.
30 In the third quarter, frozen ground has thawed making it impossible for
20
trucks to deliver OCTG to the production fields.

10 as oil and gas majors approve procurement budgets for 2014

The reason for the peak in the first quarter is because procurement budgets
Jan Mar May Jul 12 Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 13 Sep Nov
12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13
are approved by the oil and gas majors typically by January 1st. And straight
after this period they look to source OCTG and deliver it to their warehouses
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
and stock yards in close proximity to their production fields.

This year there is a slight change. Due to the mild winter, the peak in OCTG
Kazakhstan seamless OCTG imports 20012-2013 (000 tonnes) consumption is expected to shift slightly later towards the end of the
first/ beginning of the second quarter. Therefore, traders are expecting an
20
Others China increase of demand for OCTG within the next few weeks. Current domestic
18
spot price for the most common casing grades in Russia GOST632-80 146mm
16
OD with an OTTG/OTTM/Buttress connection to Grade D/K (this is equivalent
14
to API 5CT J/K55) is 48,000 rubles/tonne ($1,363/tonne) which includes VAT.
12
10
Russias oil production reaches a new high stimulating OCTG demand
8
In 2013 oil production has grown by 1.3% reaching a new record level for the
6
post-Soviet era. Natural gas output has grown by 2.1%. New tax regulations
4
adopted in 2013 have also encouraged oil & gas companies to invest in new
2
and/or complicated fields. Therefore, we believe that the requirements
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep for proprietary grades and premium connections are now growing in the
12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 domestic Russian market.
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
Russias natural gas production also increased in 2013, rising by 2.1% to 668
bcm, this follows a 2.3% decline in 2012.

with the market consuming 2Mt in 2013

These strong growths in hydrocarbon production coupled with high oil
prices have created strong market fundamentals leading to an impressive

MBR Outlook
Russia has moved to become the third largest OCTG market in
the world any by far the largest OCTG market in the Eurasia region. The
country is entering its peak buying season and we believe that demand will
continue to increase year-on-year as Russia continues to see its oil and gas
European J/K55 casing companies invest in new field developments.
1800
1750
1700 We believe due to the mild winter the buying season is slightly later than
1650 usual, as a result in the next couple of months we think purchasing will
$/ton

1600
1550 continue to increase. We also think that China might look to increase its
1500
1450 OCTG exports into the Russian market where possible which could add some
1400 price pressure for the domestic Russian mills.
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015
SOURCE: MBR However, unlike the MENA and South East Asian markets, the Chinese
presence here is considerably smaller and therefore the pricing pressure
from China is unlikely to have as great an impact as it will in other OCTG
markets around the world.

www.metalbulletinresearch.com FEBRUARY 2014 MBR sEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER
8 europe and cis marketeurope
analysisand cIs MarKet analYSiS 7
11% OCTG consumption growth reaching 2 Mt in 2013. Unlike country include Surgutneftegas with a 12% market share
the US market and in line with other markets such as China and TNK BP with a 7% market share. In the gas markets, one
and MENA we believe seamless pipe dominates this OCTG producer Gazprom completely dominates gas production
sector and in 2013 we believe that ERW OCTG had no more accounting for just under 74% of all production in 2013.
than a 16% market share in the Russian domestic OCTG
market. Lukoil is also understood to be leading the way in premium
connection usage for seamless OCTG in Russia and others
the third largest OCTG market in the world are understood to be considering to follow with Rosneft
As a result, Russia was clearly the third largest OCTG market in increasingly interested.
the world in 2013 behind the USA and China and significantly
larger than the MENA market. Kazakhstan is also seeing a surge in Chinese OCTG imports
China has also been increasing its market share in the
OCTG imports into Russia start to creep up OCTG markets in Central Asia as is shown in the chart. CNPC
The increasing market size has not just benefited local OCTG has a significant presence in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and
produces such as TMK and ChelPipe, in 2013 seamless OCTG Turkmenistan with many JVs in drilling and linepipe
imports have grown by 52% reaching 323kt compared to 218kt operations. According to estimations up to 30% of
in 2012. As a result seamless imports accounted for around Kazakhstans oil production is now controlled by Chinese
16% of all market OCTG demand in the country up from 12% in companies allowing Chinese OCTG easy access to this
2012. market. As mentioned in last months welded publication,
the third Central Asian to Chine pipe line is currently being
with China significantly increasing its market share constructed allowing more gas to flow from Central Asia
China is becoming a prominent market player in the Russian through to China itself.
OCTG market with its total market share of the whole market
reaching around 8%. As a result, the share of Chinese TMK exports of seamless octG
tmK OCTG (000 tonnes)
material in total OCTG imports coming into the country has
80
grown from 16% in 2012 up to 48% (see chart).
70 In May 2012,
TMK won a large
We understand that Lukoil, in particular, has been buying 60 seamless OCTG order
to KOC in Kuwait
Chinese OCTG for its Russian operations. This month, Chinese
50
API 5CT casing N80 with a premium connection is currently
40
arriving in the Central Russian market at around $1,400/tonne others
Others
CFR. Again, as we have seen in Asia and MENA this month, 30 other
Other ciS
CIS
these prices are very competitive compared to the local 20
uSa
USA

domestic producers.
10

Lukoil is the second largest oil producer in Russia with a 16% Jan Mar May Jul Sep nov
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
market share in 2013 behind the market leader Rosneft with 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13
a 30% market share. Other noticeable oil producers in the SOURCE: ISSB and MBR

Apparent consumption of seamless pipes in key European countries by product ('000 tonne)
Country 2011 2012 Q3 2013 Oct-13 year-to-date y-o-y % chg
UK
OCTG 74 71 14 9 35 -48%
Line pipe 34 Apparent consumption data23is only-50%
52 5 2
Norway
OCTG
Line pipe
23
66
available to paying subscribers.
55
9
12
4
52
23
9
4
26%
205%
Italy
OCTG 26 19 10 6 33 61%
Line pipe
Spain
49
To subscribe, or for a preview of
58 31 10 60 -1%

OCTG
Line pipe
12
41 our data, please contact our18
18
25 11
6
30 sales 58%
-1
3
79%

Russia
OCTG 1454 1600 department on: 1606
445 145 21%
Line pipe 514 545 156 46
466 1%
Kazakhstan +44 (0) 20 7779 7999
OCTG 63 176 67 22 209 40%
Line pipe 163 206 60 19 188 10%
SOURCE: Customs Statistics, ISSB, MBR estimates

MBR sEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER FEBRUARY 2014

WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM FeBruarY 2014 MBR SEAMLESSwww.metalbulletinresearch.com
OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer
 Middle east and north africa market analysis 9
Prices under pressure in the MENA premium connection market
Chinese seamless OCTG exports to MENA (tonne)
Prices continue to fall for premium connection OCTG
Prices for L80 grades of casing at a 7 or 9 5/8 with a non-Chinese
80,000
premium connection continue to be placed under pressure, with prices
in MENA now reaching as low as $2,000/tonne cfr from Brazilian origin
70,000
material. This time last year, the same grades with the same connections
60,000 were being sold at around $2,500/tonne cfr.
50,000

40,000
as offers from Brazil start to push down the market
As Sumitomo and Vallourec continue to offer competitive priced material
30,000
from the South American mill, this material is placing pressure on prices
20,000
from other premium connection suppliers such as the domestic Japan mills
10,000 themselves. This month, we understand that Japanese L80 casing at 7 and
0 9 5/8 OD is being offered now at around $2,300/tonne cfr into Jebel Ali,
Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13
down from around $2,400-2.500/tonne cfr at the end of last year.
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
Our export data from Brazil (which runs through to December 2013) is still
failing to show significant tonnages of OCTG being exported into the MENA
region. However, we do not believe that the tonnages necessarily need
UAE seamless OCTG and linepipe imports (000 tonnes) to be high in order to place pressure on prices. Although Sumitomo and
Vallourec are approved across the region by all end-users, their Brazilian
45,000 mill itself is not necessarily approved by all companies operating. This
Seamless OCTG Seamless Linepipe
40,000 could be another reason why we have not seen significant tonnages
35,000 arriving directly from Brazil itself. There is also, of course, the possibility
30,000 that the OCTG from Brazil is finished (threading/coupling etc.) in other
25,000 countries closer to the MENA market.
20,000

15,000 TPCO start to make major breakthroughs in the use of their premium
10,000 connections
5,000 The Chinese, led by TPCO, are now making significant advances in the
0
premium connection market in MENA. Within the last 6 months, TPCO has
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 12 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 13 Dec
12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13
now been trialled by the UAEs ADNOC ADCO division (Abu Dhabi Company
for Onshore Oil Operations) for 9 5/8 casing with its TPCQ connection. We
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR understand that this trial was successful and has resulted in TPCO winning
a significant order to supply ADCO with its casing and premium connections
amounting to 11,342 tonnes of 9 5/8, L80 was the TPCQ box and pin
connection.

MBR Outlook
Despite aggressive prices that are being seen in the MENA premium
market, underlying demand for OCTG across the region is strong and large
orders are expected in the coming months. Saudi Aramco is expected to
issue a significant size order (we understand in excess of 100kt) within the
MENA 5L B linepipe prices next couple of months. Rig count numbers themselves in Saudi are forecast
1180
to increase potentially by up to 30% this year driving demand for OCTG. The
1160 UAEs ADNOC is also seeing strong activity with, its division, ADCO itself calling
1140 for a tender currently for casing and tubing at a significant tonnage.
1120
$/ton

1100
1080 With demand forecast to remain strong for OCTG in MENA in the next few
1060 months we forecast prices in the premium connection market will start
1040
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 to reach a floor and we could see some slight gains. This though will be
2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 dependent on how quickly Brazilian demand would recover removing
SOURCE: MBR
competitive offering into MENA from here.

In the API OCTG market and the J/K 55 grades with such strong competition
likely to remain from China as the country continues to heavily target exports
to MENA, we do not expect a significant price recovery here in the short-term.
To download full data sets please click here

www.metalbulletinresearch.com FEBRUARY 2014 MBR sEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER
10 Middle east and
mIddle eastnorth africaafrIca
and north marketMarKet analYSiS 9
analysis
TPCO is now also in the process of being tested by ADNOC
- ADMA division (Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company),
responsible for a large percentage of the companys offshore
drilling. Along with ADMA, TPCO have also been successful in
being trialled by KOC (Kuwait Oil Company) in Kuwait for 7
OCTG casing with their TPCQ premium connection.
with large swathes of the region either trialling or using it
TPCO began successfully penetrating the MENA premium
connection market in November 2011 with they won an order
with TOTAL in Qatar. Since this period, we understand that
they have successfully supplied TOTAL in Yemen, Anglola
and South Africa with the premium connection. The group
has also supplied to OMV in Yemen. Saudi Arabia, though,
remains a market that does not use the Chinese premium
connection. We also understand that so far, Iraq has also had
little uptake on this material.
Saudi Aramco itself is currently in the process of closing
their 5 year-long agreements with domestic mills for OCTG
supply (both seamless and welded) and their 2 year-long
agreements with international mills.
China still very aggressive in the API market
In the non-premium OCTG market, China continues to
dominate the supply of API connections and J/K 55 grades
into Jebel Ali and the wider region. Offers continue to remain
around $900/tonne cfr for 7 and 9 5/8 casing although we
are hearing of some offers being made below this level.
Similar grades and diameters of OCTG being offered from
markets such as Russia and the Ukraine is higher at up to
$1,300/tonne cfr for casing up to a diameter of 13 3/8 OD, with
less competitive prices, the Chinese tend to dominate in this
market.
although total OCTG exports have declined from the
country to the region in 2013
It is interesting to note that although China is the dominant
force in the API market, the countrys presence in the MENA
market appears to have declined. As is shown in the chart on
Page 8, Chinas exports of OCTG from Jan-Nov 2013 equalled
464kt. For the same period in 2012 the country exported some
639kt of OCTG, a decline therefore of 27% year-on-year.
Egypt, along with much of the Middle East seeing strong
OCTG demand
It is not just the large-Arabian markets such as Saudi and the
UAE that are seeing strengthening demand. Over in North
Africa, Egypt is also posting strong growth and demand for
OCTG. Despite the political tensions that have existed in
the country over the last few years the bulk of drilling in
the country tend to be to the West in the desert away from
hot-spots like Cairo and Alexandria (although some OCTG
distributors themselves are based in Alexandria).
All rigs in the country are understood to be operational and
not idle and stacked fuelling demand for OCTG in the country
in 2014 which could hit close to 200kt.
TPCO as with the Arabian market is also active in the Egyptian
market. The company has received orders for the P110 grade
and L80 grade for its seamless OCTG casing from Petrobel, on
of Egypts top oil and gas producing companies.

Apparent consumption of seamless pipes in key MENA countries by product ('000 tonne)
Country 2011 2012 Q3 2013 Oct-13 year-to-date y-o-y % chg
Saudi Arabia
OCTG 396 302 157 35 535 130%
Line pipe 180 217 53 15 261 92%
UAE
OCTG 164 149 39 14 219 47%
Line pipe
Kuwait
146
Apparent consumption data is only
232 -35 29 205 -32%

OCTG 143 149 25 129 0 8%

Line pipe
Qatar
120 available to paying subscribers.
80 33 80 6 62%

OCTG 39 41 6 3 36 16%
Line pipe 23 29 1 0 7 1%
Oman
OCTG
Line pipe
102
23
To subscribe, or for a preview
193
68
24
6
11
154
5
17
of 0%
-72%
Iran
OCTG 133 our data, please contact our96sales
286 12 39 -58%
Line pipe 152 138 46 13
158 57%
Iraq
OCTG 103 148
department on: 123
29 9 -1%
Line pipe
Egypt
80 107
+44 (0) 20 7779 7999 144
16 10 94%

OCTG 124 179 29 11 125 -19%

Line pipe 28 71 15 7 59 2%
Algeria
OCTG 44 51 6 0 22 -49%
Line pipe 77 58 30 18 102 104%
SOURCE: Customs Statistics, ISSB, MBR estimates

MBR sEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER FEBRUARY 2014

WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM FeBruarY 2014 MBR SEAMLESSwww.metalbulletinresearch.com
OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer
 asia markET analysis 11
Japanese and Chinese seamless OCTG exports both fall in 2013
Japanese seamless OCTG exports 2012-2013 (000 tonnes)
Japanese premium connection prices come under pressure
Japanese prices for seamless OCTG with a premium connection are coming
under pressure this month, especially with exports to the MENA region.
80 ROW MENA
Currently L80 casing at a 7 or 9 5/8 OD with a premium connection is
70
being officially offered into the market at $2,400/tonne, however we think
60 prices have actually fallen below this to around $2,200 - 2,300 fob.
50
as prices fall in its key MENA export market
40
Japanese mills face the challenge of cheaper offers in the international
30
markets from countries such as Brazil which are hitting key export markets
20 for the Japanese such as the Middle East. In 2013, the MENA region became
10 the largest export region for Japanese seamless OCTG exports accounting for
30% of exports or around 205kt.
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
and demand slips in South East Asia and North America
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
Japans other two leading export markets for seamless OCTG saw declines
in tonnage requirements in 2013, with North American demand slipping
down to 108kt from 160kt in 2012. The South East Asian market - the
Japanese Exports of seamless OCTG to MENA countries (000 tonnes) countrys largest export market in 2012 shrank from 197kt down to 163kt. As
a result, the country saw a total decline in seamless OCTG exports dropping
25
Others KSA Kuwait Oman UAE from 728kt in 2012 down to 680kt in 2013, a drop of just over 6% year-on-
year.
20

with competitive Chinese premium connection prices also starting to

15
cause pressure
Japanese OCTG exporters are also starting to face increasing competition
10
from China in the premium OCTG market. As we discuss in our Middle
East analysis, TPCO is increasingly gaining acceptance for its premium
5
connection. Chinese premium connections are significantly lower in price
than Japanese material. For example, this month in China, the price of
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
OCTG at a grade of 5CT P110 with a local premium connection is at $1,260/
12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 tonne for casing at a 5 OD, this is around $1,000/tonne lower than
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR Japanese prices.

MBR Outlook
Japanese OCTG exporters are finding pressure on their margins in
the premium connection market currently. We do not believe this trend is
likely to change in the next few months. The MENA market has become the
leading export market for Japanese producers and it is this market that is
seeing the greatest pricing pressure.

In the proprietary OCTG market in grades such as 13% Cr and CRA OCTG,
Japanese J/K55 casing
Japanese prices are expected to remain strong due to limited international
1900
1880 competition and strong demand from overseas.
1860
1840
1820
1800 Aggressive pricing from China with its OCTG exports is also unlikely to
$/ton

1780
1760 change in the next few months. The country will continue to dominate API
1740
1720 exports to regions such as South East Asia and MENA. We do expect to see
1700
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
an increasing export of premium connections from the Chinese market in
2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 the coming months as more international end-users start trialling Chinese
SOURCE: MBR
products. This is therefore likely to also keep some price pressure on
premium connections from Japanese exporters.

Domestically, Chinese OCTG demand is expected to continue to grow

but with such fierce competition from the supply side in the country no
significant price increases are forecast in the coming months.
To download full data sets please click here

www.metalbulletinresearch.com FEBRUARY 2014 MBR sEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER
12 asia markET analysis
Of course, you cannot at the moment make a direct like-for-
like comparison between Japanese and Chinese premium
connections. Japanese premium connections have had years
and years of global end-use approval. The country dominates
globally in the most technically challenging proprietary
grades of OCTG such as 13% Cr and CRA grades. Even TPCO,
the most advanced of Chinese premium connection
manufacturer, has only limited international acceptance at
the moment.
But, it is becoming increasingly noticeable how quickly
Chinese producers are now moving into the premium
connection market, a market that even only a few years
back was thought to be pretty impenetrable. As a result, we
think its going to become harder and harder for European,
Japanese and American premium connection producers
to continue to achieve such significant margins with just
premium connections.
China finds more doors close for its seamless OCTG
exports
There is, of course, great pressure for Chinese producers
to find OCTG export markets with the USA closed to them.
However, 2013 has not been a good year from this perspective.
More countries have joined the USA in blocking imports of
Chinese seamless OCTG including Canada, Mexico and Brazil.
..leading to declining OCTG exports in 2013 for the first time
in 3 years
As a result, Chinas exports of seamless OCTG have actually
fallen in 2013 , following a similar pattern to what was
seen in Japan, although less severe. Chinese seamless OCTG
exports dropped just over 1% year-on-year compared to
6% in Japan. As a result total exports in 2013 were at 4.23Mt
down from 4.28Mt in 2012. This is the first decline in Chinese
seamless OCTG exports in some three years. In order to try
to maintain market share, there will be increasing pressure
from the export markets for the Chinese mills to develop into
higher-value projects.
Chinese domestic OCTG demand is strong though
Back at home, Chinese OCTG demand itself is now estimated
to be around 4.5Mt. The market is the second largest OCTG
consuming market in the world, behind the USA but now
ahead of Russia and the MENA region. Domestic prices this
months for J/K 55 casing at a 7 OD are at 5,800/tonne ($950/
tonne).
with CNPC dominating the market
We understand that CNPC is the leading consumer of OCTG
within China itself, controlling around 60% of demand for
OCTG in the country, Sinopec are the second largest consumer
with an estimated 35% market share with the rest of the
market controlled by CNOOC. CNPC is thought to look to
consume up to 1Mt of the OCTG it requires from mills that
it has direct ownership in. The company has also signed a
strategic co-operative relationship with TPCO, with the two
companies signing a 20 year purchase agreement for OCTG in
September of 2011.

Apparent consumption of seamless pipes in key Asian countries by product ('000 tonne)
Country 2011 2012 Q3 2013 Oct-13 year-to-date y-o-y % chg
China
OCTG 3552 3535 963 312 3487 20%
Line pipe 1554 2068 485 146 1958 13%
India
OCTG 151 166
Apparent consumption data is only
31 19 167 23%
Line pipe 160 150 available to paying subscribers.
46 10 147 22%
Indonesia
OCTG 179 250 52 18 230 10%
Line pipe
Malaysia
75 52
To subscribe, or for a preview of
37 12 28 -65%

OCTG 54 27 our data, please contact our sales

6 2 22 -3%
Line pipe 100 52 15 5 88 152%
Thailand
department on:
OCTG 17 158 43+44 (0) 20 7779 7999
3 154 14%
Line pipe 0 58 20 6 82 19%
Australia
OCTG 66 87 20 13 129 59%
Line pipe 27 51 4 1 14 -67%
SOURCE: Customs Statistics, ISSB, MBR estimates

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 SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE markET Tracker 13

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14 Seamless capacity Developments and news
MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPe MARKET TRacker
CIS capacity to continue to rise Published monthly by Metal US Sales Tel:

through to 2017 Bulletin Research (MBR), the

research and forecasting
+1 (212) 224 3577
Asia Pacific Sales Tel:
division of Metal Bulletin Ltd. + 61 3 5221 0715
Editor Other MBR reports include:
zz In 2013 CIS seamless capacity has increased by 200kt, this is Kim Leppold,
due to: - Welded Linepipe & OCTG
kleppold@
metalbulletinresearch.com Market Tracker

zz The re-launch and upgrade of the Rustavy seamless +1 610 404 0801
pipe mill in Georgia (Georgian Steel), which provided Head of Tubular Consulting
60kt of seamless pipe capacity to the market. James Ley
james.ley@
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zz Chelpipe, who expanded seamless pipe capacity by +44 207 779 8521
140kt
Consultant
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zz Current forecasts suggest that the CIS will add a further roman.filimonov@
700kt of hot rolled seamless pipe making capacity by 2017, metalbulletinresearch.com
compared to the 2012 level. + 44 207 827 6443
Contributor
zz In 2014, a new FQM seamless pipe mill will be launched Xiaolei Xu
in TMK Seversky which will help to add to this planned Head of Research
capacity which will provide 600kt of seamless pipe Alistair Ramsay
capacity to the CIS market. At the same time, Seversky will MBR Director
decommission in 2015 some of its existing older equipment Philip Manley
the capacity to be closed is still to be determined.
Metal Bulletin Research
Nestor House
zz In 2016, OMK will launch seamless pipe making capacity for Playhouse Yard
the first time a new entrant to the Russain market adding London
350kt of capacity.
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 SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE markET Tracker 15

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