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Abstract
Articial Neural Network Methods are discussed for estimating solar radiation by rst
estimating the clearness index. Radial Basis Functions, RBF, and Multilayer Perceptron,
MLP, models have been investigated using long-term data from eight stations in Oman. It is
shown that both the RBF and MLP models performed well based on the root-mean-square
error between the observed and estimated solar radiations. However, the RBF models are pre-
ferred since they require less computing power. The RBF model, obtained by training with data
from the meteorological stations at Masirah, Salalah, Seeb, Sur, Fahud and Sohar, and testing
with those from Buraimi and Marmul, was the best. This model can be used to estimate the
solar radiation at any location in Oman. # 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Solar radiation; Radial basis functions; Articial neural networks; Clearness index
1. Introduction
Solar energy is the portion of the suns energy available at the earths surface for
useful applications, such as raising the temperature of water or exciting electrons in
a photovoltaic cell, in addition to supplying energy to natural processes like photo-
synthesis. This energy is free, clean and abundant in most places throughout the
year. Its eective harnessing and use are of importance to the world, especially at the
0306-2619/02/$ - see front matter # 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S0306-2619(02)00016-8
308 A.S.S. Dorvlo et al. / Applied Energy 71 (2002) 307319
Nomenclature
time of high fossil fuel costs and the degradation of the atmosphere by the use of
these fossil fuels.
Solar radiation data provide information on how much of the suns energy strikes
a surface at a location on earth during a particular time period. These data are
needed for eective research into solar-energy utilization. Due to the cost and di-
culty in measurement, these data are not readily available [1,2]. Therefore, there is
the need to develop alternative ways of generating these data.
The aim of the present work is to develop articial neural network (ANN) models
that can be used to estimate solar radiation at any given location in Oman based on
its latitude, longitude, altitude, sunshine hours and the month of the year. This can
be viewed as a multivariable interpolation problem in which it is required to esti-
mate the function relating the input to the output using a set of input-output data.
This kind of problem is referred to in the literature by dierent names such as non-
parametric regression, function approximation and supervised learning in neural
network terminology [3]. Articial neural networks and in particular Radial Basis
Function (RBF) networks have been successfully used in tackling such problems [4].
Several other models have been developed for estimating solar radiation for parti-
cular stations. Regression-type models were rst applied to this problem by Ang-
strom [5] based on sunshine duration. This model was developed for other locations
by Akinoglu and Ecevit [6], Newland [7], Gopinathan [8] and Rietveld [9]. Some
regression models incorporating trigonometric functions have been proposed by
Dorvlo and Ampratwum [10] and Coppolino [2]. Radiation data being time depen-
dent have also been modeled using harmonic analysis methods by Dorvlo and
A.S.S. Dorvlo et al. / Applied Energy 71 (2002) 307319 309
Ampratwum [11], Herrero [12], Philips [13]. Mohandes et al. [14] have compared
radial basis function methods with the regression models for Saudi stations and
found the radial basis method models to be better than the regression models. Hokoi
et al. [15] used a stationary autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) of order
three to model hourly solar radiation while Mora-Lopez and Sidrach-de-Cardona
[16] also used an ARMA model of order unity to model monthly solar radiation
data. Sfetsos and Coonick [17] used articial intelligence techniques for forecasting
hourly solar radiations. All these models are however location dependent. We aim to
develop neural network based models for estimating solar radiation in those places
in Oman that do not have measuring instruments.
Neurons are the basic elements of the human brain. The basic function of these
neurons is to provide us with the ability to apply our previous experiences to our
actions [1820]. Articial Neural Networks (ANNs) are computing algorithms that
mimic the four basic functions of these biological neurons. These functions receive
inputs from other neurons or sources, combine them, perform operations on the
result and output the nal result [20]. What makes ANNs exciting is the fact that
once a network has been set up, it can learn in a self-organizing way that emulates
the brain functions such as pattern recognition, classication, and optimization [18
22].
An ANN is characterized by its architecture, training or learning algorithm and
activation function. The architecture describes the connections between the neurons.
It consists of an input layer, an output layer and generally, one or more hidden
layers in-between as depicted in Fig. 1. Fig. 1 shows one of the commonly used
networks, namely, the layered feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer.
The layers in these networks are interconnected by communication links that are
associated with weights that dictate the eect on the information passing through
them. These weights are determined by the learning algorithms, which lead to the
categorization of the ANNs as [21]:
The activation function, on the other hand, relates the output of a neuron to its
input based on the neurons input activity level. Some of the commonly used func-
tions include the threshold function, piece-wise linear function, sigmoid function [18]
and the Gaussian function. Each activation function in an ANN is usually associated
with a bias. This bias may be determined using the training algorithm by considering
it as a weight with a xed input. A brief introduction to RBF and MLP networks for
solar radiation estimation follows.
The radial basis function network consists of an input layer, an output layer and
usually but not necessarily one hidden layer [3]. The architecture used is shown in Fig. 2.
The activation function in the hidden layer of the RBF network is Gaussian, that
is characterized by its response that decreases monotonically with distance from a
central point.
The problem of estimating solar radiation at a given location based on its latitude,
longitude, altitude, sunshine ratio and the month of the year may be considered as a
multivariable interpolation one. This entails nding an approximating function H(x)
representing solar radiation in which x is an N-dimensional vector. In this case, the
x components are the independent variables, namely, latitude, longitude, altitude,
sunshine ratio and the month of the year (i.e. N=5). In RBF networks, H(x) is
expressed as a linear combination of multivariate Gaussian basis functions [18,23].
Thus
X
M
Hx Wj j x bo 1
j1
where
" #
X5
1
j x exp 2
xj ckj 2 2
j1
2 j
j x is the output of the jth node in the hidden layer (see Fig. 2),
ckj is the center of the jth RBF node for the kth input variable xk ,
j is the width of the Gaussian function,
Wj is the weight between jth RBF unit and output layer neuron,
bo is the bias term i.e. data independent variable at output node,
M is the number of hidden layer neurons.
The learning process of a radial basis function network involves using the input-
output data to determine the parameters ckj , j and Wj . One of the techniques used
to obtain these parameters is based on assuming xed radial-basis functions. In
this method, the centers are randomly selected from the training data set. On the
other hand, the width of the Gaussian radial basis function is expressed in terms
of the maximum distance between the chosen center d and the number of centers M
as
d
j p 3
2M
With ckj and j specied for all the hidden nodes, it remains to determine the
weights.These can be computed using multiple linear regression techniques [23]. This
involves processing the P training patterns through M hidden nodes to generate an
MP matrix, Q, say. The aim is to nd the weights vector W (1M vector) such
that the error between the computed output vector S (1P vector) and the target
output vector, T, is minimum. In matrix form, this translates to minimizing
kT Sk kT WQk 4
where kk
represents the Euclidean norm.
312 A.S.S. Dorvlo et al. / Applied Energy 71 (2002) 307319
The least-squares solution of (4) for the vector W can be found using the pseudo-
inverse of Q as follows
W TQT QQT 1 5
The Matlab Neural Network Toolbox was used for the implementation of the radial
basis function network [24]. The Matlab function newrb was used [25]. Based on a
given width (spread), this function iteratively adds one neuron at a time to the net-
work until the sum-squared error falls below a specied error goal or a maximum
number of neurons is attained.
The multilayer perceptron network consists of an input layer, an output layer and
usually one or more hidden layers. The architecture used in this work, shown in
Fig. 3, has an input layer of ve inputs, one hidden layer with a sigmoidal activation
function, , dened by the logistic function
1
6
1 expy
where " #
X
5
Aj x xkW1 k; j b1 j 8
k1
A.S.S. Dorvlo et al. / Applied Energy 71 (2002) 307319 313
is the linear activation function at the output layer (see Fig. 3),
W1(k,j) is the weight between kth input and jth summation hidden layer node,
W2( j) is the weight between jth hidden layer neuron and output summation node,
b1( j) is the bias term applied to the jth hidden layer neuron,
b2(1) is the bias term applied to the output layer neuron,
x(k) is the kth element of the input vector x,
M is the number of hidden layer neurons.
The learning process of the MLP network involves using the input-output data to
determine the weights and biases. One of the techniques used to obtain these para-
meters is the backpropagation algorithm [18]. In this method, the weights and biases
are adjusted iteratively to achieve a minimum specied mean square error between
the network output and target value.
The Matlab Neural Network Toolbox was again used for the implementation of
the MLP network. For the training of the neural network, the Bayesian regulation
backpropagation algorithm trainbr was used. This training function updates the
weights and bias values according to Levenberg-Marquardt optimization [26]. It
minimizes a linear combination of squared errors and weights, and then uses
Bayesian regularization to determine the correct combination that results in a
network that generalizes satisfactorily.
3. Data
The Sultanate of Oman lies between latitude 16 400 N and 26 200 N and long-
itudes 51 500 E and 59 400 E which is in the solar belt. The maximum radiation, Ho,
levels expected in Oman is between 23.32 MJ/m2/day and 40.31 MJ/m2/day. The
theoretical sunshine duration, So, is given by So 2=15cos1 tantan, where a
and d represent respectively the latitude and declination of a location. For Oman,
So, ranges between 10.5 hours and 13.5 hours a day. The climatic conditions are
mainly desert in the north and subtropical in the far south. The average solar
radiation in Oman is 18.71 MJ/m2/day with a standard deviation of 4.0 MJ/m2/day,
and the daily sunshine duration is between 8.0 and 20.5 hours [27]. Oman has a great
potential for solar energy harnessing because of the long daily duration of sunshine
hours and high levels of solar radiation.
There are at the moment 25 weather stations in Oman that routinely measure cli-
matic parameters like solar radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, rainfall, atmo-
spheric pressure, temperature and humidity. However, not all the stations measure
all these parameters, especially solar radiation. Most stations are relatively new and
therefore have not accumulated any long-term data yet. In addition, there are large
areas of Oman that do not have any weather stations.
The raw data for this study were obtained through personal communication from
the Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Meteorology. However, monthly
summaries are published annually by the Oman Ministry of Transportation and
Housing [28]. Table 1 gives the geographical details of the location of the stations
314 A.S.S. Dorvlo et al. / Applied Energy 71 (2002) 307319
Table 1
Average daily sunshine duration, solar radiation and location of meteorological stations in Oman con-
sidered in the study
Table 2
Summary of observed clearness index (H/Ho) and sunshine ratios (S/So) used as part of the input for
training and validation of the neural networks
Table 3
RMSE of solar radiation H in MJ/m2/day for all the models developed
Model no. Training set Validating set MLP-1a MLP-2a MLP-3a RBF
used in this study. These eight stations, Buraimi, Fahud, Marmul, Masirah, Salalah,
Seeb, Sohar and Sur have long term data of ten years or more. There is a con-
centration of stations in the north and south of the country. The central portion of
the country which is very sparsely populated has only three stations. Table 2 gives
the clearness index which is the ratio of the average daily solar radiation, H, and the
daily maximum radiation, Ho, and sunshine ratio, i.e. the ratio of the average daily
sunshine hours, S, and the theoretical sunshine duration, So, by month for all the
eight stations in the study.
Data from the eight stations averaged over at least ten years (19861998) were
used to train and validate the MLP neural networks and an RBF network. The
316 A.S.S. Dorvlo et al. / Applied Energy 71 (2002) 307319
input parameters were latitude, longitude, altitude, sunshine ratio, (S/So) and month
of year. The output parameter is the clearness index (H/Ho). The estimated solar
radiation was obtained by multiplying the estimated clearness index by Ho. The data
used to train and validate are provided in Tables 1 and 2. Data from six stations
were used to train the networks and the data from the remaining 2 stations were
used for the validation of the models. To arrive at the best possible model, all pos-
sible combinations of 6 out of 8 stations data, a total of 28 combinations, were used
in training the networks and the remaining two for validation. MLP networks with
Fig. 4. Solar radiation as measured and estimated using the Radial Basis Function network model 28.
A.S.S. Dorvlo et al. / Applied Energy 71 (2002) 307319 317
1, 2 and 3 hidden layers were implemented. The size of the root mean square error,
RMSE, was used to determine the best models. The RMSE, is dened as
q
P
H^ i Hi 2 ^ i is the esti-
RMSE n , where Hi is the measured solar radiation and H
mated solar radiation. The computed RMSEs are shown in Table 3. All the four
networks performed very well. The range of errors for the RBF networks was 0.83 to
10.08 MJ/m2/day, while the range of errors for MLP networks was 1.01 to 9.41 MJ/
m2/day. A KruskalWallis k-sample test showed no signicant dierence between
Fig. 5. Solar radiation as measured and estimated using the Multilayer Perceptron network model 15.
318 A.S.S. Dorvlo et al. / Applied Energy 71 (2002) 307319
5. Conclusion
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