What are the main drivers behind the longer-term development in a country?

1. Emerging economies are set to grow much faster than those of the G7 and other current
advanced economies for the next four decades.
2. India, Indonesia and Malaysia also have strong growth potential in the Asian region.
3. Nigeria could be the fastest growing country in our sample due to its youthful and growing
working population, but this does rely on using its oil wealth to develop a broader based
economy with better infrastructure and institutions (e.g. as regards rule of law and political
governance) and hence support long term productivity growth the potential is there, but it
remains to be realized in practice.
4. Vietnam is also a potential fast-growing economy, although it needs a stronger macroeconomic
policy framework to sustain rapid growth in the longer term.
5. India, Indonesia and Malaysia also have strong growth potential in the Asian region, both due to
their own momentum and the pull from the large Chinese economy.
6. Demographics, Education, Capital investment, Technological progress
7. Exchange rate will be highly increased.
8. The gap between the E7 and G7 countries is projected to continue to widen after 2017, E7
countries have potential to be around 75% larger than G7 countries by the end of 2050 in PPP
terms.
9. Across emerging and developing counties, as defined by the IMF, growth has averaged 5.8% per
annum since 2000, considerably higher than the 1.8% seen by advanced nations. As background
to our forward projections, we conducted some additional analysis for this edition of our World
in 2050 report into the drivers of emerging and developing economy growth over the past
fifteen years4.
10. Growth in the E7 will continue to outpace that of the G7 with annual average growth of around
3.5% between 2016 and 2050, while the G7s growth will be slower at around 1.6% per annum.
11. Europe will steadily lose ground relative to the Asian giants. The EUs share of world GDP (at
PPPs) is expected to fall from around 15% to just 9%, while Chinas rises to around 20% and
Indias to 15%. The USs share of world GDP will also fall, potentially to around 12% by 2050.
12. By 2050, India could overtake the US to be the worlds second largest economy in GDP at PPP
terms, and Indonesia could be the worlds fourth largest economy. Six of the seven largest
economies could be todays emerging markets by 2050.
13. Vietnam, India and Bangladesh could achieve annual average growth of around 5% over the next
34 years. Nigeria could achieve growth of around 4% per annum if it can diversify and reform its
economy.
14. Given economic growth is subject to many economic, political, social and environmental
uncertainties, we also analyze some of the risks to growth and present three possible downside
scenarios 3.1 Relative size of leading economies
15. Western European economics slip down the ranking by 2050 as a result of stagnant productivity
growth, an ageing population and slowing birth rate. The Netherlands in the example for falling
from 26th powerful economy in the world in 2016 to 35th in 2050.
16. A steadily expanding population coupled with moderate economic growth should stand the
Colombian economy in good stand over the next 33 years. By 2050, Colombia is projected to
move up the ranking by one place.
17. Eastern and Central European economies are expected to do better than their counterparts in
the west of the continent during the coming decades. However, while GDP growth in Poland
should be healthy at 4.5% a year on average, decreasing population may take the edge off the
growing economy.
18. Slipping down from 25th to 29th place, Argentina should experience a moderate population boost
and its economy should grow steadily over the next 33 years, but in relation to other countries
in Latin American and elsewhere, the growth is likely to be modest, hence the fall.
19. Australia risks dropping a staggering nine places by 2050, falling from the 19th to the 28th largest
economy in the world by 2050.
20. South Africans population is projected to increase by around 0.5% annually until 2050 and long-
term sustained economic growth is on the cards for the country. Unsurprisingly, South Africa is
expected to rise from the worlds 29th largest economy in 2016 to the 27th by 2050.
21. The heaviest fall down the rankings, Spain is projected to plummet from 16th most powerful
economy in 2016 to 26th in 2050. Analysts put this down to a large decline in the working age
population rather than lackluster economic performance.
22. Like many emerging economies, Thailand is racing ahead. The Thai economy is expected to be
the 25th largest in the world by 2050, up five places compared with 2016.
23. Thailands neighbor Malaysia is projected to rise up the ranking too. Mirroring the nation next
door, Malaysia should experience impressive GDP growth over the next 33 years, landing the
country in 24th place by 2050.
24. Another impressive rise in the rankings, Bangladesh is forecast to have the worlds 23rd biggest
economy in 2050, up from the 31th in 2016. The growth is nevertheless dependent on the
government enacting reform and improvements to the countrys education system, according to
PWC.
25. Joining other faltering advanced economies in the west, Canada is likely to slip five places down
the ranking by 2050, Again , a mix of slowing demographics and unimpressive economic growth
explains the fall.
26. Italy has a similar albeit more serious problem. Struggling with an ageing population and
mediocre economics performance.