RESEARCH PROPOSAL

PROPOSED PROJECT TOPIC: An Assessment of the

Causes, Effects and Impacts of Scope Changes/Scope Creep

on Engineering Projects and Strategies for Mitigation.

An Assessment of the Causes, Effects and Impacts of Scope

Changes/Scope Creep on Engineering Projects and Strategies

for Mitigation.

PROGRAMME: MASTERS' IN ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT

PROGRAMME (MEM),

DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING,

FACULTY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING,

RIVERS STATE UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND

TECHNOLOGY, NKPOLU, RIVERS STATE.

TABLE OF CONTENT

1.0 CHAPTER ONE: Introduction 4

1.1 Research Objectives 11

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 1.2 Problem Definition 13

2.0 CHAPTER TWO: Literature Review 14

2.1 What are the Potential Effects of Scope Creep 18

3.0 CHAPTER THREE: Research Goal 20

4.0 CHAPTER FOUR: Scope of the Research 22

5.0 CHAPTER FIVE: Research Methodology 24

5.1 Theoretical Model - Regression Analysis 25

6.0 CHAPTER SIX: Cost Estimation and Sources of Funds 29

6.1 Duration of Study 31

7.0 References 33

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

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Controlling and managing projects is the key to the success of any project.

Managing projects to meet its set out objectives and targets is an endeavor

that takes the guts out of knowledgeable professionals of other disciplines

other than project management. Succeeding in the management of a project

goes beyond having the technical knowledge required to perform the work

detailed out in the project plan. Because life is a process of continuous

performance of different and sometimes challenging tasks in an organized or

unorganized manner, the success of life has a linkage with project

management.

The body of knowledge that has come to be known as project management

deals with the organization and management of all job functions relating to

the execution of the project objectives. Project management is the discipline

of defining and achieving targets while optimizing the use of resources such

as time, money, people (human resources), materials, energy, space etc. The

Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) defines a project as a

temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or service. It is

temporary in the sense that the project has an end date and it is unique in the

sense that the project and the result is different from the result of similar

projects in a lot of attributes and features even though there may be some

similarities. It is an undertaking that encompasses a set and series of related

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or linked tasks and activities having a definable starting point and

completion point and well defined objectives. Usually each task has a

planned completion date and assigned resources. In contrast to ongoing

functional work, the duration of a project is the time from the start to its

completion which can take days, weeks, months or even years.

Project management as a body of knowledge was used as an isolated concept

before the Cold War period. During this time, the United States Dept of

Defense needed to speed up the military projects process. New tools or

models for achieving this goal were invented. In 1958, they invented the

Program Evaluation and Review Technique or PERT- one of the earliest

project management tools as part of the Polaris Missile Submarine project.

At the same time, the DuPont Corporation invented a similar model called

Critical Path Model (CPM). The process flow and structure of the military

undertakings quickly spread into many private enterprises. Over the years

there have been several approaches that can be taken to managing projects

activities. A traditional phased approach identifies a sequence of steps to be

completed. Regardless of the approach employed, careful consideration

needs to be given to clarity surrounding projects objectives, goals and

importantly the roles and responsibilities of all participants and stakeholders.

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Project management is an integrative and interactive endeavor- an action or

inaction in one area will usually affect other areas. The interactions may be

straightforward and well understood or they may be subtle and uncertain.

For example, a scope change will almost affect project cost, schedule, risk

and quality of project deliverables and project team morale.

While scope of projects is defined early in the planning and estimation

phases, there are many reasons for changing, adjusting or modifying it later

as the needs or attributes of the project to be executed becomes clearer. This

only comes well into the project execution phase and not during the scope

planning stage. Furthermore in most projects, scopes are likely to change

and this is expected by experienced project managers as the details of the

project objectives/aims and attributes becomes clearer. The scope changes

that usually causes problem are those where the perception of what was

in/out of the project scope was different between various parties or

stakeholders and nobody thought it worthwhile talking about these salient

issues because they all assumed what was part of the scope and what was

not.

Any major source of scope change or creep in a project is where the

objectives of the project are well articulated and defined in the planning

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phase but the implementation stages throws up plenty of challenges and

obstacles which will inadvertently lead to not meeting schedules as defined.

Because of the wide gap between planning and execution, it is never

completely possible to visualize all events and scenarios that will play out

when execution is ongoing. Moreover in project execution, certain bridges

cannot be crossed until it is arrived at i.e the approach or method for solving

certain problems cannot be completely planned for because it will be

foolhardy to bother about it in strong detail at project planning and

inception. They however become issues of serious concern and further

presents themselves as reasons for changes to original plans leading to scope

creep. The implications are varied amongst which are more work packages

and more time to deliver.

Many a times the blame is on poor scope definition arising from wrong

judgments on the part of the project planners and schedulers' inability to

visualize the depth of the work at hand out of inexperience or lack of

adequate information and facts about the project. Most times, scope

definition is an activity that is carried out by the client/project sponsor

although it can be done by the contractor who is going to execute the project

in rare cases where the client has no knowledge of what it will entail to

deliver the project or service in other to bring about a successful project

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completion but can only visualize the final outcome in his "mind's eye". This

is a very common situation in engineering design projects. This, many a

times lead to a situation where two or more persons are looking at the same

thing but from different perspectives. This situation occurs where project

managers are dealing with none technically minded business entrepreneurs

with little or no technical knowledge about the content of what they want to

achieve.

Defining the scope of a project is usually a few pages activity accompanied

by a statement of all the attributes, where visible of the product or service.

Reviews are an integral part of the these activities in order to accept or

reject, understand and harmonize different opinions on the project

deliverables before it is accented to by all stakeholders (client and

contractor), thereby forming the legal and guiding document upon which the

success or failure of the project shall be measured especially from the

client's perspective on the basis of delivery time, budget and quality. For the

contractor company, the scope of work (SOW) forms the legal and guiding

document which should clearly outline the boundaries of the work relative to

the approved project budget and schedule since all project resources that go

into the execution of the project has a cost and there is an expected time that

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each deliverable spelt out in the project execution plan (where available) is

expected to be completed within time for the project to progress.

Therefore when the project scope is assumed to be clearly and carefully

crafted on initiation of the project, and the accompanying cost are estimated

or even calculated, the Work Breakdown Structure and the Schedules are set

out, the expected delivery time is stated, any change in the scope in the

scope of work will result to very grave consequences which will impact on

the project budget, expected delivery date, quality and team spirit. This

impact is what this project aims to look into using three different projects

where project scope changes occurred. Overall, we are seeking to proffer

mitigation measures against this problem of scope change and scope creep

on projects.

Another very commonly observable cause of scope change and scope creep

is the occurrence of unanticipated and insurmountable obstacles and

problems in the course of project execution. Because a bridge can never be

crossed until arrived at, the occurrence of problems which will prove

insurmountable inevitably leads to changes to the approved plan already

spelt out in the execution plan. This kind of situation has lead to the failure

of most projects. The blame is not on poor scope definition as earlier

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highlighted above but the presence of situations which are not just in

agreement with the direction of the project objectives. However, because the

project is imperative and resources are already being consumed, recourse to

changes in areas of insurmountable obstacles becomes inevitable.

A project product or service can be observed not workable midstream into

the project in all its functionalities because of the project peculiarities and

this can call for a change of design and of course scope. The unique nature

of some projects can bring about this kind of problem. No matter how

experienced the members of the project team are, it is found out late in

project execution that some requirements are not workable upon project

completion and hand over. Midway down the project execution, good

experience and judgment about the operationability or use of the project

product can indicate that the outcome though visible is not wholly workable

in a manner to adjudge the project as successful. There can be only one

option in cases like this and that is a redesign which introduces a change into

the already defined scope. After all, what good is a project product if when

completed and put into use it cannot function as expected.

1.1 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

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From the foregoing, the impact of a poorly conceived project scope vis--vis

the introduction of new changes into a running project midway can be better

imagined. This research will have as its central objective the following:

1. A detailed and comprehensive review and presentation of the

impacts/effects of poorly conceiving a project scope or project

boundaries.

2. Using real life case studies of projects either participated in by the

researcher and/or projects handled by colleagues, we will attempt to x-

ray, analyze and treat data obtained (where possible) for past projects in

order to document the extent of impact of a scope change or creep on the

above mentioned project variables of cost, schedule (delivery time),

quality and morale. Case studies to be used will revolve basically around

the engineering design and construction sectors of the oil and gas

industry. Scope changes and creep is consistently a part of design projects

because by its nature, design activities are not always easy to visualize by

a non-technical mind, who by commission or omission happens to be the

project sponsor or client in some cases. Moreover, unforeseen

circumstances have made many projects targets unattainable and

therefore failure.

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3. Finally concerted efforts will be made to proffer far reaching

recommendations and solutions on a project scale basis that can be

wisely applied towards handling scope changes and scope creep issues.

The approach will be a deposition of useful insights and facts collated

from experiences gained from different projects involved in, white papers

and articles of renowned experts in the field of project management.

It is the believe of the researcher that this research study into the field of

project scoping will go a long way in expanding the knowledge baseline in

project management and contribute immensely towards reducing the

percentage of failed projects which presently is documented in reknown

literature as being between 30-35%, which can be said to be very high. Upon

the basis of the huge capital investment in oil and gas projects, project

failures arising from scope related issues can better be managed from the

viewpoint of documented experience gained elsewhere and hence carried

forward into present and future projects. Without any ambiguity, this is what

will form the central objective of the research study.

1.2 PROBLEM DEFINITION

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Successful execution of any project hinges on not only commanding the

requisite technical skills and knowledge required but very importantly

depends on good planning and control of the entire process. Possessing the

required skills without proper planning and co-ordination of activities,

workflow, cost, budget, time and scope has lead to several project failures.

The scope of any project which most of the time is defined at the beginning

of the project needs to be maintained and jealously guided for the project to

be on track. Scope change or scope creep in projects has led to several

project failures without the knowledge of all involved. Clients' expectations

for a perfect product or service or the cheer desire of project members to

exercise their technical expertise and artistry sometimes also lead to scope

creep and scope change with dire consequences on project delivery time and

schedule, cost and budget, quality and morale. This is because scope change

and scope creep is such a "creepy" creature which is hardly noticed as the

cause of project delay or even failure. How does project managers need to

act, respond and even guide him in order to handle this malice? This is what

this research will seek to study using experiences gained from past projects

which were seriously hampered by changes.

CHAPTER TWO

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2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

The subject of project scope changes has been discussed widely amongst

project management experts. The consensus that it impacts greatly on project

key success indices is also not in doubt. However not many project

management textbooks have dedicated much time and energy to X-ray the

topic or even proceed to analyze data.

John .C. Lagace (2002) in his paper (Managing Project Scope) put down the

well accepted opinion that the first phase in many project methodologies is

to define the scope of the project. He goes on to also say that the scope states

what the objectives of the project are and what work will be done to

accomplish the project. The scope describes the parameters for what is

included in a project and what is excluded from the project. The scope will

become more refined as a project progresses but it will always remain within

the initial parameters defined. He goes further to say that when through the

evolution of a project, the direction of a project changes where it goes

outside the initial parameters a change in scope- scope change has

occurred.

Neville Turbit (Guide to Project Scope Management, Tenrox Publishing

Limited, 1998) also comments that in defining the scope, we are not talking

14
about deciding how long it will take or how much it will cost as all these

comes only after the scope is defined. Having successfully defined the

scope, you can then calculate cost and time and not before defining the

scope. He adds that if you get the scope wrong, the time and cost will be

wrong. He argues further that anyone who has ever done a project will have

tales of how scope changes caused grief. However scope is bound to change

and it is to be expected. As details become clearer, more complication creep

in. These are not foreseeable at the start and hopefully we build in a

contingency for what we cannot see. The scope changes that usually cause

problems in addition to the various other sources earlier mentioned are those

where the perception of what was in and out of scope was different between

all parties. The client may wish or request that some more features or

benefit be introduced into the project - Featurist Creep - probably as a result

of a discovery that what was originally not possible and so was kept out of

the scope has been made possible by the ingenuity of the project team.

By its nature, projects management tries to gain control over five variables;

one of which is time required to complete the project. Typically broken

down for analytical purposes into the times required to complete the

components of the projects which is further broken down into the times

required to complete each task, any loss in time will result in a duration

15
extension and possibly scope creep. Three of these variables can be given by

clients and the values of the remaining variables are then set by project

management ideally based on a negotiation process between project

management and customer. Usually the values in terms of time, cost, quality

and scope are contracted.

Dan Harvath (2001) in his PhD dissertation writes that in the evolution of a

project, the direction of project changes where it goes outside the initial

parameters referring to these as a change in the scope of the project.

Similarly, if there are any changes to what will be done for the project, no

mater how small or how large and not withstanding if they were specifically

requested or not, it is a change in scope of the project. Scope changes can

make a project larger or smaller. Scope changes can affect the timeline of a

project and the cost of the project. These changes in scope are commonly

referred to by the term scope creep.

In engineering projects, scope creep more frequently occurs during the later

stages of a project, such as design and construction, rather than during the

earlier stages, such as planning. Changes may happen in the later stages as

the project team gains more knowledge of the problem and solution. Scope

changes can be numerous small changes or can be a fundamental design

change.

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A project manager often tries to manage scope creep. The goal in managing

scope creep is to try to minimize the impact of any change on the project,

such as on the timeline and cost. Many company methodologies have

Change Control processes for managing scope creep. These Change Control

processes often include filling out forms describing the requested change in

scope and it then undergoes an approval process. Some view this form as a

good method to raise awareness of the project stakeholders to what the

change is and what the implications of the change are, such as an increase in

the deadline and an increased cost where possible. Others view a Change

Control process as a way to deter potential changes in scope. Hal Helms in

his survey report In Defense of Scope Creep (2002) posited that 80% of

project manager interviewed reported scope creep either always or

frequently. The leading reason (by 44% of respondents) for why scope

creeps so frequently was poor initial requirements definition. The second

leading reason that project was new and unfamiliar or sophisticated was

reported by 36% of respondents. Next, 28% reported "project take so long

that requirements generally do change. 22% of respondents reported poor

management/failure to manage user expectations" and lastly 19% of

respondents reported failure to involve users in early stages

There are many different possibilities for why scope creep can occur. For

example, scope creep can be viewed as the pressure to deliver more than

17
what was agreed to originally. Scope creep can also occur when the business

requirements were not well defined up front and thus the scope changes over

the course of the project as requirements are solidified. Some changes in

scope are caused by external entities to the organization. Changes in items

such as legislation, regulatory changes, market conditions, or in the

technologies being utilized can cause scope creep. All these items are out of

the control of the project team or their company

2.1 WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF SCOPE CREEP

It is common for projects today to be over budgeted or to not be

implemented in the initial target timeframe. Often the cause is attributed to

scope creep. Therefore, in the eyes of many project managers, scope creep

can cost up to four times as much as initial project development cost. If a

project takes longer than anticipated to complete due to scope changes, then

it will take longer before the benefits can be realized. Additional cost and

delayed benefits will result in a lowered return on investment. It a project

gets out of control due to changes, it may be cancelled and the company will

take a loss on what it spent on the effort.

Scope creep affects all manner of projects. In researching this topic, several

articles discussing scope creep were found on I.T, architect, engineering,

construction, office infrastructural supports projects etc websites. While the

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project will focus primarily on engineering projects, the concepts can be

expanded to many other areas.

CHAPTER THREE

3.0 RESEARCH GOAL

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Existing literature has not bordered to scientifically ascertain the widespread

belief that scope changes/creep impacts on projects even though it is a

known fact. Much of literatures in engineering project management hold the

fact high but it is never discussed in such close details as to expose the

cause, ills and effects beyond the mere fact that any significant changes to

defined scope is bound to impact on the project delivery time, cost, probably

even quality and team morale (immensurable impacts. As part of the goals of

this research, the author will attempt to discuss, and recommend to

academics, project managers and engineers, construction and site

personnels and even ordinary students alike (since all activities in life are

planned to time and cost) in a detailed manner for their knowledge but very

importantly for our oil and gas industry how scope changes occurs, the

causes, the effects, signs and proofs of scope changes, ways and actions to

put it (them) in check. Experience shows that even very knowledgeable and

professional project manager and persons do not even know when a change

is about to occur in their projects or contracts with companies especially in

the nation's oil and gas sector. Of course, the bottom-line effect is lost

profits and extended project times.

While intelligent project management tools and softwares are available for

use in well established organizations for tracking project progress, not many

have a solid Change Control process in place to identity and handle changes

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to the defined scope. This is bound out of lack of awareness on project

related issues amongst our local companies. It will be the goal of the

research to trumpet the need for an effective scope management process and

scope change control system to be established to better guide projects so as

to elevate the profit margin on projects. It is the believe of the researcher that

with better understanding of the scope change/creep issues that will be

treated in this research, it will go a long way to better the understanding of

project managers to scope change issues.

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH

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This research will focus and dwell on the subject mater of scoping and scope

changes in project management. Project management is vast body of

knowledge that enhances the application of sound engineering and common

sense knowledge into the management of projects that are stand alone

activities or put differently it is a system of management deployed to meet

certain target in a conventional management by operations set up.

In deploying project management into use, a project team is set up with a

project manager who does not usually carry out any form of task on the

project but rather oversees and coordinates the activities of the team. Project

initiation and planning is a very key factor for project success of the project

manager who uses specialize planning and estimation tools to carefully

detail out the work packages and develop a Work Breakdown Structure

(WBS) for the project with PERT or CPM. But in most cases, it is pitiful to

observe that things dont go as planned upon project execution. This work

will not look into the aspect of project management as it relates to the

application of PERT and CPM in project planning but instead will focus on

what happens when all of the above have been put in place, yet things dont

go as plan. One reason for this situation is when a change in the original

agreed and approved scope occurs without the notice of the project manager

and the team.

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 CHAPTER FIVE

5.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

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A good understanding of the subject at hand comes from having working

knowledge of projects and project management. The methodology to be

deployed in this work will be to use facts and figures obtained from past

projects where scope changes were introduced without properly making

provisions to accommodate or freeze the effects that such changes can have

on the approved project scope and plan.

With a fairly good knowledge of how engineering project operates in the

Nigeria oil and gas industry, the plan is to use data obtained (where possible)

to discuss the consequences that such changes produced on projects. Three

projects ranging from engineering design to construction shall be deployed.

The approach will be to give a background history of the projects, provide

an understanding of the agreed scope of work for the project. Cost and

duration for each work package on the Work Breakdown Structure will be

presented and the duration of the project shall be stated. Multiple regression

analysis will be performed using data collected from projects. Regression

analysis is a statistical tool for the investigation of relationships between

variables. Usually, the investigator seeks to ascertain the causal effort of one

or more variable upon another, for example, the effect of a price increase

upon demand.

5.1 THEORETICAL MODEL - Regression Analysis

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In attempting to establish the fact that scope changes has on a successful

delivery of projects, this study will utilize linear multiple regression method

of data analysis. Because projects frequently finish late and over budget,

thus causing organizations heavy penalties and damage to their prestige

before their clients and all other stakeholders alike, resulting from the

introduction of new changes to the ordinal scope for whatever reason or

purpose, this issue cannot continue to be wished away.

Scope changes increase project duration and budget above the

baseline. We might also suppose that scope changes affect projects in a

linear fashion- that is each additional change in scope introduced during

project additional change in scope introduced during project execution

constrains the already tight schedules towards project success. This linearity

assumption is common in regression studies but is by no means essential to

the application of the technique and can be relaxed where the investigator

has reason to suppose a priori that the relationship in question is non-linear.

In order to understand and appreciate the concept of regression, we

need to briefly review the basic tenets of statistics concerning such

elementary as dependent and independent variables, intercepts, slopes as

plotted on graphs and use in problem solving. Now let x be the independent

variable and y the dependent variable. Then their functional relationship is

represented by a non vertical intersecting linear function as

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 y = f(x) ---------------Eqn (1)

In coordinate geometry, the equation of a non vertical intersecting linear

function can be written in the analytical forms as

y = nx+b-----------------------Eqn (2)

Where y = the dependent variable

x = the independent variable

m = slope of the line

b = the intercept on the y axis

From the theoretical regression line, the values of m and b are calculated

using the actual values of x and y in the method of least squares as

Myn = n xy x y

nx2 (x) 2 -------------------Eqn (3)

Or by using the mean values of x and y, we have

Myn = xy nxy
_________
x2 n(x)2 --------------------Eqn (4)

From the foregoing analysis, the regression coefficient

b = y-mx -----------------------Eqn (5)

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Equation (2) above (y =mn+b) algebraically describes a straight line for a set

of data with one independent variable (y) where x is the only independent. If

a line represents a number of independent variables as is the case in a

multiple regression analysis to an expected result, the equation of the

regression line takes the form:

y = m1x1 + n2 x2 +----------- + mn xn+b.

Where y = the dependent variable

x1 through xn are the independent variable

m1 through mn are the coefficients of each independent variable (the

slope of the line)

b is a constant (intercept of y axis)

From the foregoing, the hypothesized relationship between scope change

and project success (i.e completing project within time and budget) may be

written as

S = (d) +(c) + +e

Where d and c represents project duration and cost (the independent

variable)

and represents the coefficients of each independent variable (the slope of

the line)

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 is the intercept of the y axis (a constant amount depicting no change in

scope of project

e is a factor that accounts for the noise factor (an error term).

CHAPTER SIX

6.0 COST ESTIMATION AND SOURCES OF FUNDING

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In order to accomplish the objectives of the research, the following estimate of expenses

and cost will be involved.

S/NO DESCRIPTION COST

1. Shopping for material 12,000.00
2. Photocopy appropriate of materials 7,800.00
3. Transportation to and from UST 3,000.00
4. Browsing the internet for material 15,000.00
5. Typing /printing of work 25,000.00
6. Binding of Research proposal and (3) 4,000.00

copies of project
7. Other logistics relating to obtaining 5,000.00

information and materials

Total N76,000.00

This project is the brainchild of the author as part of the requirements for

award if a Masters Degree in Engineering Management. It was conceived

because of the authors working knowledge and problems encountered in

project management of engineering activities. Therefore, the researcher

(author) did not see the need to solicit for funding , bearing in mind too the

harsh financial condition currently constraining most ongoing academic

research in the country funding for this work shall be solely from the

authors monthly salary from his workplace. It is the belief that setting aside

the usual financial pressure experienced by all, there is enough to see the

work to its completion to the glory of God.

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6.1 DURATION OF STUDY

This work has been hindered greatly several factors beyond the control of

the author. It is the hope of the author that barring any further unforeseen

circumstances, the research will be completed in or before the end of March,

2007.

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 This time frame will be adequate to allow the author to conclude

preliminary research on this topic, carry out a detailed and comprehensive

study culminating in the writing of a proper presentation of literature and

results and obtaining all necessary approvals from the project supervisor and

bodies. Already some preliminary aspects of the task in searching for

materials have been accomplished, nevertheless it is included here.

1. Searching for material 6 week

2. Preparing literatures & write up 4 weeks

3. Typing and printing 1 week

4. Project Submission and approval/incorporation of supervisors

comment 2 weeks

5. Submission of updated version and approval 1 week

6. Final printing, binding and submission 1 week

15weeks (4 Months).

7.0 REFERENCES

1. Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)- 1996 Edition.

2. The Project White Paper Collection: Defining the Scope of a Project.

By Hals Helm (2002).

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3. Neville Turbit - Guide to Project Management, Tenrox Publishing

Limited. (1998)

4. Harold Kerzner - Effective Project Management (1998)

5. John .C. Lagace - Managing Project Scope (2002)

6. Hal Helms - In Defense of Scope Creep (2002)

7. Project Management Institute - Achievement Driven Project

Management. (1998)

8. Richard Veryard - In Praise of Scope Creep.

Veryard Publishing Limited. (May 2001).

9. Steve Slusarenko - Project Management Wisdom

www.maxwideman.com

10.S.I. Idele - Fundermentals of Economic Statistics (1996)

11. J.K. Olayemi and S.O. Olayide - Elements of Applied Econometrics.

12. Moshe Ayal (PhD) - The Effect of the Scope Changes on Project

Duration Extentions (An Extended Abstract of a PhD Dissertation)

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