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***ICE AGE
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1NC Ice Age

Empirically, warming has held off impending ice ages - pattern is
expected to continue with future predicted glacial periods
Idso 2005 [Sherwood, president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
Global Change; Kieth, ounder, former president and current chairman of the board of
the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change; Keith, MS from
university of Arizona major in Agronomy and Plant Genetics, “Overdue Cooling?”,
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V8/N11/C1.php] zabner
Background Ruddiman et al. (2005) contend that "ice-core evidence from previous interglaciations
indicates that forcing by orbital-scale changes in solar radiation and greenhouse-gas
concentrations should have driven earth's climate significantly toward glacial conditions
during the last several thousand years," and that "the hypothesized reason most of this cooling
did not occur is that humans intervened in the natural operation of the climate system
by adding significant amounts of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, thereby offsetting most of the natural
cooling [that otherwise would have occurred] and fortuitously producing the climatic stability of the last several thousand years."¶
What was done In a study of a continuous high-resolution Western Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) alkenone record
spanning the past 250,000 years, Martrat et al. uncovered evidence that could be interpreted to suggest much the same thing.¶
What was learned Throughout marine isotope stages 5 and 7 encompassing the prior
two interglacial periods, the pattern has been for rapid warmings to occur, followed by
gradual and then more rapid coolings, which are abruptly terminated by rapid warmings
that set the stage for the cycle to be repeated.¶ What it means The fact that Martrat et al. discovered that the entire Holocene to date
"shows a stable SST trend similar to those in previous interstadial stages, tending toward progressively cooler climate conditions,"
suggests, in their words, that "the next bifurcation of the climate system may appear as an extremely intense cooling if the future
natural climate is going to develop as an analog of some of the preceding warm periods." Since
this has indeed been
the pattern in the past, there is no reason not to expect it to recur in the future, unlessthe
overdue-glaciation hypothesis of Ruddiman et al. is correct, which suggests that even if the world's climate alarmists are correct in
imputing great strength to the greenhouse effect of CO2, we
ought not interfere with that phenomenon, as
it may be what is keeping us from experiencing a far worse fate than anything the
world's climate alarmists have yet imagined.¶

We are due for an Ice Age

Idso^3, 99[Sherwood, president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
Global Change; Kieth, ounder, former president and current chairman of the board of
the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change; Keith, MS from
university of Arizona major in Agronomy and Plant Genetics, “History of the Last
Interglacial”, http://www.co2science.org/articles/V2/N24/C5.php]

What was done ¶ Based on isotopic and palynological data from a lacustrine sequence derived
from a 319-meter core obtained on the western flank of the Pindus Mountain Range, the
authors reconstructed a climatic history of the region from 115,000 to 135,000 years
ago.¶ What was learned ¶ The data suggest that the climate variability of the last interglacial was
similar to that of the current (Holocene) interglacial "both in terms of amplitude and, possibly, of pacing." In
addition, the authors note that the onset of instability that led to the development of the last great
glacial period occurred about 10,800 years after the beginning of the full interglacial,
which is essentially identical to the length of the Holocene thus far.¶ What it means ¶ Any day
now, geologically speaking, we are due for the next great ice age to begin, based on pervious
glacial/interglacial periodicities, such as that observed in this study; and since this pattern has repeated itself for so many cycles, it is
not unreasonable to believe that it will continue to do so, irrespective of what man may do, knowingly or unknowingly, to thwart it.
Yet we worry, almost exclusively, and clearly obsessively, about global warming. Is this healthy? Is it wise? Is it even rational?¶
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Ice age leads to extinction—comparatively outweighs warming

Chapman, 8[Phi., Managing Director at CMW Geosciences Pty Ltd, “Sorry to ruin the
fun, but an ice age cometh”, The Australian, 4/23,
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/news/sorry-to-ruin-the-fun-but-an-ice-age-
cometh/story-e6frg73o-1111116134873]
There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one
and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have
become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase
agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it.¶ Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for
it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.¶ There is also
another possibility, remote but much more serious. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the past
several million years, severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our planet.¶ The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions,
most of North America and Europe are buried under about 1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid
climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years.¶ The interglacial we have
enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that
glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years.¶
The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that
the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C
cooler in 2027.¶ By then, mostof the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing
under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond
imagining.¶ Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees. Once the glaciation
starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time.¶ If the ice age is coming, there is a small chance that we could
prevent or at least delay the transition, if we are prepared to take action soon enough and on a large enough scale.¶

2NC
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CO2 Good - Warming stops ice age

Greenhouse gases key to staving off the next ice age - we should not
alter human progress over false warming claims
Idso 1999 [Sherwood, president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
Global Change; Kieth, ounder, former president and current chairman of the board of
the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change; Keith, MS from
university of Arizona major in Agronomy and Plant Genetics, “Is interplanetary dust
related to ice ages?”, http://www.co2science.org/subject/questions/1999/interplanet_dust.php]
There is indeed a general consensus that the cyclical glaciations of the past million years [Climate History (Overview - The Last
2,000,000 Years)] are driven by phenomena related to the receipt of solar radiation at the surface of the earth, and that cyclical
variations in the accretion of interplanetary dust may play a role in this regard.¶ Standard Milankovitch (1920, 1941) theory, which
relates changes in insolation to changes in the eccentricity of earth's orbit, has been the dominant force in studies of this subject for
the past few decades. The past few years, however, have seen a challenge arise in the form of a number of pesky problems that
continue to gnaw at it. These deficiencies have been described by Muller and MacDonald (1995, 1997), who first elucidated the
potential interactive role of cyclical variations in the inclination of the earth's orbit relative to the invariable plane of the solar
system, whereby meteoroids and dust concentrated in the invariable plane are accreted at greater rates when the earth passes
through the invariable plane. Although they have not been able to calculate quantitatively the effects of various mechanisms of
their hypothesis resolves a number of problems associated with
accretion on climate, they claim that
the Milankovitch theory.¶ As to whether we should be "pouring CO2 and methane into
the atmosphere" in an effort to forestall the next expected glaciation, which is not that
far distant in terms of geologic time, you could perhaps make a good case for such a program. It
would seem to be no more farfetched than the current designs of many governments to
do just the opposite and dramatically reduce CO2 emissions to stave off predicted global
warming. With apparent reasons to pull strongly in both directions, perhaps the course
of wisdom would be to not unduly meddle in the normal progression of human affairs.

Co2 solves ice age- extinction

Marsh ‘12 (Gerald E. Marsh, Retired Physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory
and a former consultant to the Department of Defense on strategic nuclear technology
and policy in the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton Administration, “The Coming of a New Ice
Age,” http://www.winningreen.com/site/epage/59549_621.htm, 2012)

CHICAGO — Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing
humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age . What we
live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages.
Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and
that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended. How much longer do we have
before the ice begins to spread across the Earth’s surface? Less than a hundred years or
several hundred? We simply don’t know. Even if all the temperature increase over the
last century is attributable to human activities, the rise has been relatively modest one of
a little over one degree Fahrenheit — an increase well within natural variations over the
last few thousand years. While an enduring temperature rise of the same size over the
next century would cause humanity to make some changes, it would undoubtedly be
within our ability to adapt. Entering a new ice age , however, would be catastrophic for
the continuation of modern civilization . One has only to look at maps showing the extent
of the great ice sheets during the last Ice Age to understand what a return to ice age
conditions would mean. Much of Europe and North-America were covered by thick ice,
thousands of feet thick in many areas and the world as a whole was much colder. The
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last “little” Ice Age started as early as the 14th century when the Baltic Sea froze over
followed by unseasonable cold, storms, and a rise in the level of the Caspian Sea. That
was followed by the extinction of the Norse settlements in Greenland and the loss of
grain cultivation in Iceland. Harvests were even severely reduced in Scandinavia And
this was a mere foreshadowing of the miseries to come. By the mid-17th century,
glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, wiping out farms and entire villages. In England,
the River Thames froze during the winter, and in 1780, New York Harbor froze. Had this
continued, history would have been very different. Luckily, the decrease in solar activity
that caused the Little Ice Age ended and the result was the continued flowering of
modern civilization. There were very few Ice Ages until about 2.75 million years ago
when Earth’s climate entered an unusual period of instability. Starting about a million
years ago cycles of ice ages lasting about 100,000 years, separated by relatively short
interglacial periods, like the one we are now living in became the rule. Before the onset
of the Ice Ages, and for most of the Earth’s history, it was far warmer than it is today.
Indeed, the Sun has been getting brighter over the whole history of the Earth and large
land plants have flourished. Both of these had the effect of dropping carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere to the lowest level in Earth’s long history. Five
hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over 13 times current
levels; and not until about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels dropped to a
little less than twice what they are today. It is possible that moderately increased carbon
dioxide concentrations could extend the current interglacial period. But we have not
reached the level required yet, nor do we know the optimum level to reach. So, rather than call
for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN’s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general
could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide
needed to extend the current interglacial period indefinitely. NASA has predicted that
the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should
cause a very significant cooling of Earth’s climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a
new Ice Age? We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our
current prosperity by spending trillions of dollars to combat a perceived global warming
threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.

CO2 solves ice age

Archer and Ganopolski, 5[David, professor in the Department of The Geophysical
Sciences at the University of Chicago; Andrey, Potsdam Institute for ¶ Climate Impact
Research, “A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next¶ glaciation”, May,
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2004GC000891/asset/ggge651.pdf?v=1&
t=hy346to5&s=7e57cc9392f2669741f6dd939b9997f78b7c10a4] zabner
Assuming for the moment that natural CO2¶ forcing in the future will be small, the model¶ predicts that the available fossil
fuel carbon¶ reserves have the capacity to impact the evolution¶ of climate hundreds of
thousands of years into the¶ future. An anthropogenic release of 300 Gton C (as¶ we have already done) has a
relatively small impact¶ on future climate evolution, postponing the next¶ glacial termination 140 kyr from now by one¶ precession
cycle. Release of 1000 Gton C (blue¶ lines, Figure 3c) is
enough to decisively prevent¶ glaciation in the
next few thousand years, and¶ given the long atmospheric lifetime of CO2, to¶ prevent
glaciation until 130 kyr from now. If the¶ anthropogenic carbon release is 5000 Gton or more¶ (red lines), the
critical trigger insolation value¶ exceeds 2 s of the long-term mean for the next¶ 100 kyr. This is a time of low insolation variability¶
because of the Earth’s nearly circular orbit. The¶ anthrogenic CO2 forcing begins to decay toward¶ natural conditions just as
eccentricity (and hence¶ insolation variability) reaches its next minimum¶ 400 kyr from now. The model predicts the end of¶ Figure
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3. Effect of fossil fuel CO2 on the future evolution of climate. Green represents natural evolution, blue¶ represents the results of
anthropogenic release of 300 Gton C, orange is 1000 Gton C, and red is 5000 Gton C. (a) Past¶ and future pCO2 of the atmosphere.
Past history is from the Vostok ice core [Petit et al., 1999], and future¶ anthropogenic perturbations are from a carbon cycle model
[Archer, 2005]. (b) June insolation at 65N latitude,¶ normalized and expressed in s units. 1 s equals about 20 W m2¶ . Green, blue,
orange, and red lines are values of the¶ critical insolation i0 that triggers glacial inception. The i0 values are capped at 3 s to avoid
extrapolating beyond¶ model results in Figure 3; in practice, this affects only the 5000 Gton C scenario for about 15 kyr. (c)
Interglacial¶ periods of the model. (d) Global mean temperature estimates.¶ Geochemistry¶ Geophysics¶ Geosystems G33 archer and
ganopolski: next glaciation 10.1029/2004GC000891¶ 5 of 766the glacial cycles, with stability of the interglacial¶ for at least the next
half million years (Figure 3c)¶

GHG key to solve – the impact is extinction

Hoyle and Wickramashinge 01 (Fred and Chandra, School of Mathematics @ Cardiff U. renowned as one of
the twentieth century's great scientific thinkers theoretical physics and astronomy, Astrophysics and Space Science leading expert on
interstellar material and the origins of life, “Cometary Impacts and Ice-Ages”, Vol. 275, No. 4, March, Springer)
The 18O/16O analysis of Greenland ice cores shows that an immense melting of glacier ice began abruptly about 14.5 kyr ago. The jumps shown in
Figure 1 are also matched by similar effects in the South Polar region with major temperature rises of some 12 C occurring over a timespan of only a few
decades (Steig et al., 1998). On a more restricted geographical scale, fossil insect records show that the summer temperature in Britain rose by 10 C or
more in as little as 50 years (Coope, 1970) on at least two occasions during the Younger Dryas, an essentially decisive indication of a catastrophic event
as its cause. It is therefore cometary impacts that we must thank for the equable spell of climate in which human history and civilisation has prospered
so spectacularly. The renewal of ice-age conditions would render a large fraction of the world’s major food-growing areas
inoperable, and so would inevitably lead to the extinction of most of the present human population. Since bolide
impacts cannot be called up to order, we must look to a sustained greenhouse effect to maintain the present
advantageous world climate. This might imply the ability to inject effective greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, the opposite of what environmentalists are erroneously advocating . 6. Conclusions Ice-age
conditions are dry and cold, the local temperature being reduced over the entire Earth. The high atmosphere probably had a haze of small ice crystals
while the lower atmosphere was dusty. Such conditions were stable, capable of persisting until a large bolide hit one of the major oceans. The water
then thrown high into the stratosphere provided a large temporary greenhouse effect, but sufficient to produce a warming of the world ocean down to a
depth of a few hundred metres. It is this warming that maintains the resulting interglacial period. Theinterglacial climate possesses only
neutral equilibrium however. It experiences random walk both up and down, until a situation arises in
which the number of steps downward become sufficient for the Earth to fall back into the ice-age
trap. Thereafter only a further large bolide impact can produce a departure from the grey, drab ice-age conditions. This will be so in the
future unless Man finds an effective way to maintain a suitably large greenhouse effect
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sunspots
Ice age coming now – sunspots – collapses ag and causes disasters
Bastasch 1/21 01/21/2015 Michael Bastasch, reporter at the Daily Caller, “Scientists Fear Another ‘Little Ice Age’ Is On The
Way” http://dailycaller.com/2015/01/21/scientists-fear-another-little-ice-age-is-on-the-way/
Winter is coming.
Last year may have been the warmest on record, but it has done little to quell the fears of scientists

arguing that declining sunspot activities could bring on another “little ice
age.”
Shrinivas Aundhkar, director of India’s Mahatma Gandhi Mission at the Centre for Astronomy and Space Technology,

said declining amounts of sunspots being observed in the last two solar cycles could mean a “mini ice age -like situation”
is around the corner .
“The sunspots that can be seen on the sun have comparatively less temperature compared to other surfaces on it,”

Aundhkar told people at a lecture entitled “Get Ready for Little Ice Age .”
“The sun undergoes two cycles that are described as maximum and minimum,” Aundhkar said. “The activity alternates every 11 years, and the period is
termed as one solar cycle. At present,the sun is undergoing the minimum phase, reducing global
temperatures.”
For years now, scientists have been warning that fewer observed sunspots could mean the Earth

is heading for a cooling period. This view, however, has not been adapted by many scientists
studying global warming, who say that human activity and natural climate cycles are warming the planet.
High sunspot activity has been associated with periods of warming on the Earth, like the period between 1950
and 1998. Scientists have noted that low sunspot activity has coincided with cooler periods, like the so-called

“Little Ice Age ” that lasted from the late Middle Ages to the 19th century, where temperatures were much cooler than today.

The past few years have seen more and more scientists argue that declining solar activity likely
means cooler temperatures ahead. At the end of 2013, for example, German scientists predicted a
century of global cooling based on declining solar activity and ocean oscillation cycles.

“Due to the de Vries cycle, the global temperature will drop until 2100 to a value corresponding to the

‘little ice age’ of 1870,” wrote scientists Horst-Joachim Luedecke and Carl-Otto Weiss of the European Institute for Climate and
Energy.
Lockwood of Reading University told BBC News that declining
Earlier that year, Professor Mike

solar activity has set the stage for global cooling .

“By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, [Lockwood] has been able to determine how active
the sun has been over thousands of years,” the BBC reported. “Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes
solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000
years.”
Aundhkar now argues that winter temperatures have dropped in the North Pole, causing severe
winters, like the so-called “polar vortex” experienced by the U.S. last winter.
“This has also triggered the jet stream, which is active in the northern parts of the globe to shift in inter tropical
climate zone like India,” Aundhkar said. “As a result, cold wind conditions were witnessed during the
last two years. The unseasonal hailstorms in November and December are a result of the influence of
the jet stream. This has also led to steady weakening of magnetic energy of the sun, leading to mini ice age

like situation.”
Aundhkar’s explanation for harsh winters runs counter to the explanation given by White House science czar John Holdren, who said that global
warming was driving freezing and snowy winters.
In a White House video from last year, Holdren claimed a “growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much
of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues.”
Aundhkar disagrees. He argues that Earth is heading for another cooling period like the
But
17th century, when sunspots were very quiet.
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“The Earth may be heading towards a mini-ice age period, which is similar to what was observed in
the 17th century,” Aundhkar said. “During the time, the sunspots on the Sun were absent. This led to a drop
in northern hemisphere temperature by 2-3 degrees. The current scenario is almost the same.
Such climatic conditions might affect the agricultural pattern and health and trigger disasters in
the worst scenario.”