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Indonesia Reports Slowest Growth in 4 Years
Indonesia Reports Slowest Growth in 4 Years
IN 4 YEARS
By : Joe Cochrane FEB. 5, 2014
Indonesia posted gross domestic product growthof 5.78 percent in 2013, the
statistics agency said, compared with annual growth of more than 6 percent in
2010, 2011 and 2012. The country’s G.D.P. grew 4.6 percent in 2009. For the
fourth quarter of 2013, the economy shrank 1.42 percent from the previous
quarter, although the agency noted it grew 5.72 percent compared with the same
period in 2012.
The Indonesian central bank raised its benchmark rate five times — a total of 1.75
percentage points — in 2013 to try to contain a current account deficit that hit $10
billion in the second quarter of 2013. Most recently, in November, Bank Indonesia
unexpectedly increased that rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 7.5
percent. The rupiah has fallen 21 percent in the last 12 months, according to data
from Bloomberg.
Stephen Schwartz, chief economist for Asia at BBVA Research in Hong Kong, said
the drop in Indonesia’s year-on-year and quarterly growth rates had not been as
severe as expected and could be viewed positively, given signs in 2013 that the
economy was overheating because of rapid credit growth and record foreign
investment.
“We find that over half of the slowdown is due to cyclical factors and the
remainder is structural, and it’s a good theing, because many people think the
slowdown is due to structural factors,” said Mr.Schwartz of BBVA Research.
Among these. He said, are corruption, inflation,inadequate infrastructure and the
goverment’s sluggish pace in opening sectors to greater foreign invesment.
“The goverment is initiating reforms, it’s fair to say,” he said. “It looks promising,
but it’s uncertain,because there’s an election coming up this year.”
“Monetary policy has helped exports, the fiscal packages have helped stimulate
growth, but the hard part is their structural reform agenda,” he said. “It’s critical
for them to do these supply-side reform. A lot of people think this is a very critical
year, and that Abenomics could fail if reforms aren’t made.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/06/business/international/indonesia-reports-slowest-growth-in-
4-years.html?_r=0
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