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CAGR=(EV/BV)^(1/n) −1
where:
EV=Ending value
BV=Beginning value
n=Number of years
Growth Rate Analysis
Imagine two identical companies which both earn $10 million this year.
Company Earnings Earning after 10 years
Growth
A 15 $40.5 million
B 5 $16.3 million
Growth Rate Analysis
How to estimate the growth rate in earnings?
The easiest way to come up with a growth rate is to see what analysts are saying.
For example, on Yahoo Finance you can find out that, on average, analysts expect that Apple (AAPL)
will grow its earnings at a rate of 12.24% per year for the coming 5 years.
Seems like a great plan to listen to what these analysts are saying, because they are the experts,
rights?
Research by McKinsey & Co.concluded that Wall Street analysts are as good as always too
optimistic.
HISTORICAL EPS GROWTH
Another way to get an idea of the future growth potential of a company is by looking
at how fast the company has been able to grow its earnings over the last ten years.
This is equal to an impressive 38.8% annual compounded growth rate ($19.37 / $0.73 ^ 1/10).
So over the last 10 years Google has, on average, grown its EPS with 38.8% a year.
Now ask yourself, is it realistic to expect that Google will keep growing at that rate for the
coming 10 years?
Keep in mind that this means Google will have to earn 26 times more in ten years time than
the $13.2 billion they are earning today! This seems highly unlikely.
Growth Rate Analysis
It takes the ROE ratio and adjusts it for any dividends that are
paid out, because only Retained Earnings (Net Income -
Dividends) can be used to grow the business.
Growth Rate Analysis
A REALISTIC GROWTH RATE
However, what we are looking for is a realistic rate at which we can expect a company to grow over the coming
years, not a maximum rate. This makes the Sustainable Growth Rate far from perfect.
If, for example, a company decides to take on $10 million in Long-Term Debt to generate more earnings, the amount
of Shareholders' Equity would remain the same, but the ROE figure would nevertheless rise because of the higher
earnings.
So ROE is flawed because it does not take debt into account and because ROE is a key input for the Sustainable
Growth Rate, it too is flawed.
Well, we could add Long-Term Debt to Shareholders' Equity before calculating the return, which essentially means
we are no longer using the Return on Equity but the Return on Capital. This way we take debt into account. Also, we
could use Depreciation & Amortization expenses as a proxy of maintenance and replacement costs of machines, and
therefore subtract this from retained earnings to get a more accurate view of the amount of money that can be used
to grow the business.
Not quite. We are still basing this formula on a lot of assumptions. That is why I suggest you compare this rate
to the analyst expectations and historical EPS growth rate to make sure you are not being overly optimistic.
Also, look at how consistent the earnings of the company have been over the past ten years.
Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is the process of
estimating the expected value of a portfolio
after a given change in the values of key
factors take place.
Both likely scenarios and unlikely worst-
case events can be tested in this fashion—
often relying on computer simulations.
Stress Testing
Stress testing is often employed using a
computer simulation technique to test the
resilience of institutions and investment
portfolios against possible future critical
situations.
Such testing is customarily used by the
financial industry to help gauge investment
risk and the adequacy of assets.
Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
What Is Sensitivity Analysis?
A sensitivity analysis determines how different values
of an independent variable affect a particular
dependent variable under a given set of assumptions.
The sensitivity analysis is based on the variables that affect valuation, which a financial model can
depict using the variables' price and EPS. The sensitivity analysis isolates these variables and then
records the range of possible outcomes.
On the other hand, for a scenario analysis, the analyst determines a certain scenario such as
a stock market crash or change in industry regulation.
He then changes the variables within the model to align with that scenario. Put together, the
analyst has a comprehensive picture. He now knows the full range of outcomes, given all
extremes, and has an understanding of what the outcomes would be, given a specific set of
variables defined by real-life scenarios.
Variance Analysis
Variance analysis is an analysis of the difference between planned and actual numbers. The sum of all variances
gives a picture of the overall over-performance or under-performance for a particular reporting period.
Variance Analysis
Types of Variances
Materials, labor, and variable overhead consist of price
and quantity/efficiency variances.
Fixed overhead, however, includes a volume variance
and a budget variance.
When calculating for variances, the simplest way is to
follow the column method and input all the relevant
information.
This method is best shown through the
example below:
XYZ Company produces gadgets. Overhead is applied to products based on direct labor hours.
The denominator level of activity is 4,030 hours. The company’s standard cost card is below:
During January, the company produced 3,000 gadgets. The fixed overhead expense budget
was $24,180. Actual costs in January were as follows:
Cost Driver Cost Detail
Direct materials 25,000 pieces purchased at the cost of
$0.48 per piece
Direct labor 4,000 hours were worked at the cost of
$36,000
Variable manufacturing overhead Actual cost was $17,000
Fixed manufacturing overhead Actual cost was $25,000
Variance Analysis
Material Variance
Adding these two variables together, we get an overall variance of $3,000 (unfavorable). It is a
variance that management should look at and seek to improve.
Although price variance is favorable, management may want to consider why the company
needs more materials than the standard of 18,000 pieces. It may be due to the company
acquiring defective materials or having problems/malfunctions with machinery
Variance Analysis
Labor Variance
Adding the two variables together, we get an overall variance of $4,800 (Unfavorable).
This is another variance that management should look at. Management should address why the actual
labor price is a dollar higher than the standard and why 1,000 more hours are required for production.
The same column method can also be applied to variable overhead costs. It is similar to the labor
format because the variable overhead is applied based on labor hours in this example.
Variance Analysis
Fixed Overhead Variance
Adding the budget variance and volume variance, we get a total unfavorable variance of $1,600. Once
again, this is something that management may want to look at.
Variance Analysis
Root Cause Analysis
Root cause analysis (RCA) is the process of discovering the root causes of problems in order to identify appropriate
solutions. RCA assumes that it is much more effective to systematically prevent and solve for underlying issues rather
than just treating ad hoc symptoms and putting out fires.
Core principles
Focus on correcting and remedying root causes rather than just symptoms.
Don’t ignore the importance of treating symptoms for short term relief.
Realize there can be, and often are, multiple root causes.
Focus on HOW and WHY something happened, not WHO was responsible.
Be methodical and find concrete cause-effect evidence to back up root cause claims.
Provide enough information to inform a corrective course of action.
Consider how a root cause can be prevented (or replicated) in the future.
Variance Analysis
Another useful method of exploring root cause analysis is to carefully Analyze the changes leading up to an event.
Let’s say the event we’re going to analyze is an uncharacteristically successful day of sales in New York City, and we
wanted to know why it was so great so we can try to replicate it.
week of quarter.
Variance Analysis
Cause and effect Fishbone diagram
Another common technique is creating a Fishbone diagram, to visually map cause and effect.
Process
Typically we start with Then brainstorm several As we dig deeper into
the problem in the categories of causes, which are After grouping the categories, potential causes and sub-
middle of the diagram then placed in off-shooting we break those down into the causes, questioning each
(the spine of the fish branches from the main line (the smaller parts. branch, we get closer to
skeleton), rib bones of the fish skeleton). the sources of the issue.
Variance Analysis
Common categories to consider in a Fishbone diagram:
Liquidity Ratio Analysis
Definition
Liquidity ratios are financial ratios that measure a company’s
ability to repay both short- and long-term obligations.
Use of Liquidity ratios
Liquidity ratios are commonly used by prospective creditors and
lenders to decide whether to extend credit or debt, respectively, to
companies.
Common liquidity ratios include the following:
Current ratio
Acid-test ratio
Absolute Liquid Ratio
Cash ratio
Operating cash flow ratio
Liquidity Ratios
Liquidity Ratios
Cash ratio
The cash ratio measures a company’s ability to pay off short-term liabilities with cash and cash equivalents:
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Leverage Financial Ratios
Debt ratio
The debt ratio measures the relative amount of a company’s assets that are
provided from debt
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Leverage Financial Ratios
Problems with the Above formula:
Particulars Company A Company B
Short term Payables $1 million $500,000
long-term debt $500,000 $1 million
shareholder equity $1.5 million $1.5 million
D/E ratio 1.00 1.00
On the surface, the risk from leverage is identical, but in reality, the second company is riskier. Because short-term
debt tends to be cheaper than long-term debt, and it is less sensitive to shifting interest rates, meaning the second
company’s interest expense and cost of capital are higher.
Solution:
A common approach to resolving this issue is to modify the D/E ratio into the long-term D/E ratio. An approach like
this helps an analyst focus on important risks.
Long-term Debt Equity Ratio = Long term Debt / Shareholders Equity
Summary:
Debt to equity ratio is a measure of the degree to which a company is financing its operations through debt versus
wholly owned funds.
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It reflects the ability of shareholder equity to cover all outstanding debts in the event of a business downturn. .
Efficiency Ratios
Efficiency Ratios
Definition
Efficiency ratios, also known as activity financial ratios, are used to measure how well a company is
utilizing its assets and resources.
Uses of Efficiency ratios
Efficiency ratios compare what a company owns to its sales or profit performance and inform investors
about a company's ability to use what it has to generate the most profit possible for owners and
shareholders.
Common efficiency ratios include:
Asset turnover ratio
Inventory turnover ratio
Receivables turnover ratio
Days sales in inventory ratio
Efficiency Ratios
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Efficiency Ratios
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Efficiency Ratios
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Efficiency Ratios
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Profitability Ratios
Profitability Ratios
Definition
Profitability ratios measure a company’s ability to generate income relative to revenue, balance sheet
assets, operating costs, and equity.
Profitability ratio is used by investors to evaluate the company's ability to generate income as compared
to its expenses and other cost associated with the generation of income during a particular period. This
ratio represents the final result of the company.
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Profitability Ratios
The total assets for 2017 were $349 billion (rounded)
The total assets for 2016 were $330 billion (rounded)
Exxon’s Total Average Assets =$339.5{(349+330)/ 2}
Exxon reported net income of $19.7 billion for 2017
Exxon’s ROA =($19.7 Billion / $339.5 Billion ) = 5.8%
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Profitability Ratios
Definition
Market value ratios are used to evaluate the share price of a company’s stock.
Uses
Market value ratios are used to evaluate the current share price of a publicly-held company's stock.
These ratios are employed by current and potential investors to determine whether a company's shares are
over-priced or under-priced.
Price-earnings ratio
The price-earnings ratio compares a company’s share price to its earnings per share:
Price/Earnings-to-Growth
Ratio
PEG Ratio= (Price / EPS) / EPS Growth;
In the above formula,
Price represents the current Market price of the company
EPS is the earnings per share of the company for the current year
arrived at by dividing profit after tax from Number of Shares
outstanding.
EPS growth rate is arrived at by using analyst estimates available
on financial websites that follow the stock .When considering a
company's PEG ratio from a Finance website, Using historical
growth rates, may provide an inaccurate PEG ratio if future growth
rates are expected to deviate from a company's historical growth.
The ratio can be calculated using one-year, three-year, or five-year
expected growth rates.
To distinguish between calculation methods
using future growth and historical growth, the terms "forward PEG"
and "trailing PEG" are sometimes used.
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Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio
Assume the following data for two hypothetical companies, Company
A and Company B:
Company A: Company B:
Price per share = $46 Price per share = $80
EPS this year = $2.09 EPS this year = $2.67
EPS last year = $1.74 EPS last year = $1.78
Given this information, the following data can be calculated for each company .
Company A
Company B
P/E ratio = $46 / $2.09 = 22
P/E ratio = $80 / $2.67 = 30
Earnings growth rate = ($2.09 /
$1.74) - 1 = 20% Earnings growth rate = ($2.67 / $1.78) - 1 = 50%
Many investors may look at Company A and find it more attractive since it has a lower P/E ratio between the two
companies. But compared to Company B, it doesn't have a high enough growth rate to justify its P/E. Company B is
trading at a discount to its growth rate and investors purchasing it are paying less per unit of earnings growth. 48
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio
The lower the PEG ratio, the more the stock may be undervalued given its future earnings
expectations. Adding a company's expected growth into the ratio helps to adjust the result for
companies that may have a high growth rate and a high P/E ratio.
The degree to which a PEG ratio result indicates an over or underpriced stock varies by industry
and by company type. As a broad rule of thumb, some investors feel that a PEG ratio below one is
desirable.
According to well-known investor Peter Lynch, a company's P/E and expected growth should be
equal, which denotes a fairly valued company and supports a PEG ratio of 1.0. When a company's
PEG exceeds 1.0, it's considered overvalued while a stock with a PEG of less than 1.0 is considered
undervalued.
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