SabaCapital Trade Plan - JAN 5

1
SATURDAY, JANUARY 6, 2018
SABACAPITAL
TRADE IDEAS AND NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
SPY
 No change from the latest update
SPY - NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
XBI
The biotech ETF hit the 88.8 resistance and pulled lower. In my view, there’s high probability that the
resistance from last to year to be broken which should trigger a move to 91 as first target.
NLNK
Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

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transmitted in any form or by any means.
NLNK stock saw an unusual option activity which resulted in increase of liquidity in the stock and break
over the 9.23 resistance.
If the momentum in the stock increases, it could hit the 12 level on the short term.
The player that bought the options yesterday is probably betting on positive results of its pancreatic
cancer drug as its expected read-out is in the first half of 2018, if successful the stock could trade over
20+.
(I wouldn’t bet the farm on it as the company has history of failure and hype)
ENTRY 9.3-9.7
TARGET 12.2
STOP LOSS 8.8
TRHC
2 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

TRHC shares spiked higher after forming a base in the 28-29 area, from here the stock may resume its
upward trend and hit the 36.16 then 41.
I will be looking to start long position off the 30.5-31.8.
ENTRY 30.5-31.8
TARGET 41
LONGER TERM
TARGET
EA

EA stock managed to reclaim its 104.9 support level as it “whipsawed a breakdown”, from here I expect
the stock to re-test the 116 level and eventually break it all-time highs (122) and head to $140.
ENTRY 104-106
TARGET 116
LONGER TERM 135+

TARGET
NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY IN STOCKS OF INTEREST
BABA
FCAU

SABACAPITAL – 1/4
UPDATES AND NEW TRADE IDEAS–SPY, AKAO, BIDU, IOTS,CVE
SPY
 The SPY was able to break out over the 268.5 and close at 270 which invalidates my latest
analysis
 The options flow is still 100% bullish and some traders are expecting a move to 272+
SPY- NOTABLE OPTIONS ACIVITY
UPDATE- IOTS
 The stock was given in the weekly trade plan for potential bounce to 7.1 which was hit
yesterday however the stock didn’t pull back to our entry (not even close).
 At this point I think the stock could break over the 7.7 and head to 8.4, therefore I will be looking
to take a position off 6.7-6.3
CVE – CENOVUS ENERGY

Cenovus Energy said it will focus on deleveraging and focus on cost reduction in 2018, efforts that may
result appreciation of its share price.
In addition, higher prices of crude oil and natural gas may lead to higher stock price.
I’ll be looking to start long position 9.6-10 for a move to 11.35 then 13.
ENTRY 9.6-10
TARGET 11.35
LONGER TERM 13
TARGET
NOTABLE OPTION ACTIVITY AND BLOCK TRADES IN STOCKS OF INTEREST

BIDU
REMINDER: the idea was given after the stock plunged lower to 222-230 range for potential bounce to
250 and 300. After a consolidation in the 230-250 level in the past month the stock managed to break
over the MovLgren line and could be heading to 268 then potentially to 304.
AKAO

SABACAPITAL – 1/3
UPDATES AND NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY – NBIX, PBYI, MU, BABA, SINA,AMD,
AKAO
SPY
 Although the market rallied today I won’t change the weekly analysis on the possible pullback
 We are still 100% long and the options flow is still bullish
SPY- NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
XBI
AKAO – ACHAOGEN LNC

Achaogen updated that Plazomicin has been accepted for review by the FDA.
Additionally, it announced positive top-line results from first clinical trial of Orally-administered
antibacterial candidate C-scape.
The stock has been in a downward trend since it topped at the 27 level and the recent updates from the
company may cause a turnaround of the trend as one the stock is undervalued at the current price and
setting at potential support level.
I will be looking to start long position off the 10.85-10.64 as a break over the 12.5 could trigger a move
to the 14.
ENTRY 10.6-10.8
TARGET 12.5 THEN 14
STOP LOSS 10.18
SINA – SINA

The stock broke out and closed over the MovlReg 90 as it could resume its upward trend.
Based on the fundamentals the stock significantly undervalued as it has fair value of 141 per share.
I will be looking to start long position off the 101-105 for the 118 first target.
ENTRY 101-105
TARGET 118
AMD - ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES

AMD’s stock looks attractive at the current prices as fundamentally it is undervalued after being
overvalued for most of 2017.
In the upcoming session I will be looking to start long position off the 10.6-10.75 for a move to 11.95 as
first target.
ENTRY 10.6-10.75
TARGET 11.95
STOP LOSS 10.18

NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY OF STOCKS OF INTEREST ( RECENT SETUPS)
NBIX
PBYI
BABA
MU

SABACAPITAL – 1/3
OVERVIEW AND TRADE IDEAS
SPY – S&P 500
US stocks faded lower on the last trading day of 2017 turning negative at session’s half.
As it was mentioned in last week report the 268.5 level is acting as distribution level where sellers
overwhelmed buyers every time it was tested.

The market is currently a bit overbought and I would expect some consolidation with tendency to head
lower before resuming the upward movement.
For the upcoming sessions I would expect the SPY to break down under the 266.5 area and test the 265
level then 263
SPY – NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
NUGT ( GOLD MINERS BULL)
Gold has been trading in range for the last 4 year and I’m betting for potential break out to the upside
this year for various reasons I won’t detail.
To trade the potential upward move in gold I will be looking to start long position in NUGT on a pullback
to the 25-29 for the 45 then 55.8 targets.
ENTRY 25-29

TARGET 44-45, 55.8
STOP LOSS 23.5
NUGT- NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
UCTT – ULTA CLEAN HOLDINGS
Recent weakness in UCTT stock may offer a buy opportunity as the stock is undervalued at the current
price.
The stock spiked higher on Friday after it was added to S&P Smallcap 600.
In the upcoming sessions I will be looking to start a long position if it pulls back to the 19-21 area it could
bounce back to the 26 level then 29.

ENTRY 19-21
TARGET 26 THEN 29
STOP LOSS 18.6
IOTS
IOTS stocks pulled back to the 200 SMA where it’s finding a support level as the stock is undervalued at
the current price and has 8.5 fair value per share.
I’ll be looking to start long position off the 6 level for potential bounce to the 7.1 then 7.5.
ENTRY 6

TARGET 7.1
STOP LOSS 5.64
SABACAPITAL – 12/29/2017
UPDATES AND NEW TRADE IDEAS – SPY, MU, TSLA, AMC
SPY
 SPY should re-test the 268.5 level today as if it breaks over it, we should a move the 270.
AMC

Since reporting on 11/06 its Q3 earnings report the stock rallied from the 11s area to close at 14.85 in
yesterday’s session which may signal for a potential bottom and start of turnaround in the stock price.
In Q3 Revenue rose to $1.18 Billion from $779.8 exceeding estimates and posted diluted loss of $0.33
per share, a smaller loss than analysts estimate.
Looking at the fundamentals, the stock is extremely undervalued at the current levels as it has $18 per
share fair value (conservative estimates) and technically the stock managed to break over its 50 SMA
then re-test it where it found support (14s).
I will be looking to start long position off the 14.5-14.9 area as the stock could bounce to 16.33 as first
target then 18.
ENTRY 14.5-14.9
TARGET 16.33 THEN 18
LT TARGET 22

BABA
MU
TSLA

SABACAPITAL – 12/29
UPDATES – SPY, XBI,BABA, FH, CLVS, TGTX
SPY – S&P 500
SPY- NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

XBI
CLVS – CLOVIS ONCOLOGY
Biotechnology stocks are seeing money inflow as of recently (FGEN, ALNY,PBYI..etc) as we approach
year end, Clovis oncology is the latest to see unusual options activity.
Technically if the stock manages to break the 50 SMA (67.5) it should head to the 200 SMA 71 level.
Fundamentally the stock is undervalued with a fair value of 84 per share.
I started a small long position at yesterday’s close we will be looking to add for potential move to the 71
the 77.

ENTRY 66-67
TARGET 71 THEN 77
MENTAL STOP 63
LOSS
FH (SPECULATIVE PLAY)
Form holdings said on Monday it closed a deal to divest FLI charge unit to private investors who
provided buyout and operating capital to the company.
The divestment could cause appreciation of the share price as currently the stock is undervalued.
I will be looking to start long position off the 1.44-1.5 as it could spike to the 1.9 and use 1.39 as a stop
loss.
ENTRY 1.44-1.5
TARGET 1.9

STOP LOSS 1.39
NOTABLE ACTIVITY OF STOCK OF INTRESET ( RECENT SETUPS)
TGTX
BLOCK TRADE IN TG THERAPEUTICS; 1.8M SHARES AT $8.37
BABA
UPDATES – SPY, XBI, PYPL, BIDU, BABA, MU
SPY

NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
XBI
XBI broke out over the 84.9 level and as mentioned last week it could continue to the 89 area as first
target.
PYPL

I will be looking to start long position off the 73-74 area for a bounce to 77.7.
ENTRY 73.74
TARGET 78 THEN 81
LT TARGET 103
OPTIONS ACTIVITY IN STOCKS OF INTRESET ( RECENT SETUPS)
BABA
BIDU

MU
SABACAPITAL- 12/26
ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEAS – AAC, EPZM, AVEO
SPY
The upward movement in the SPY continued as it closed 0.38% higher for the week.
During last week sessions the 268.5 level acted a distribution levels where the SPY faded once tested it.
For the coming weeks if the 268.5 keeps acting as resistance level I would expect to see a pullback to
265.5 then 262.7.

 Options flow is still bullish and betting for spy to head over 270 in January o
XBI – S&P BIOTECH ETF
The XBI managed to break over its 90 MovLReg and as mentioned last week it could start an upward
move to the 89 level.
AVEO

AVEO Pharmaceutical’s had a nice run during 2017 after the CHMP approved its renal carcinoma
treatment.
In the last two months the stock traded in the 2.5-3 range and I expect it to break out and head to the
3.6 then 3.9.
I will be will be looking to start long position off the 3.65-3.05 level for potential break out.
ENTRY 2.65-3.05
TARGET 3.6 THEN 3.9
AVEO – NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

EPZM
Epizyme stock retraced to a potential support level (“triple bottom) and could bounce back to 14.
I will be looking to start long position off the 11.3-12.45 for potential bounce to 14.
ENTRY 11.3-12.45
TARGET 14 THEN 18
MENTAL STOP 11
LOSS
EPZM - EQUITY BLOCKS

AAC – AACH HOLDINGS
ACC holding reported its 3Q earnings report on 11/01 where it topped expectations, as a result the share
price jumped from 7.5 to 11.7.
The recent pullback to the 200 SMA could offer a buying opportunity as one it’s setting on a support
level and two the stock is extremely undervalued.
I will be looking to start long position off the 8.25-9.1 for potential bounce to 11.7.
ENTRY 8.35-9.1
TARGET 11.7
LONGER TERM 13.5

TARGET

TRADE IDEAS & NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY –ADMS, KURA, BABA, MU,ADSK
SPY
SPY – NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
XBI

“The S&P Biotech ETF is trending on a POTENTIAL SUPPORT level and it manages to break over the
82.5 it could signal for a potential reversal and the sector may start a new upward move with a 89.1
target. “
 It was reported that Ignyta ( RXDX) to be acquired by Rocha for $27 per share in all cash
transaction. The price represents a premium of 74% to RXDX closing price on 21/21.
 This acquisitions may be a catalyst that triggers a break XBI over the 82.5 area.
KURA
Kura Oncology trade idea was given from the 11 entry area to 13 and 16 target after its drug candidate
( Tipifarnib) has demonstrated anti-tumor activity in r/r HRAS-mutant head and neck squamous cell
carcinoma patients.
Additional data from the open-label phase 2 is going to be available in February could be a catalyst to
move the stock to the 22.8 level.
Moreover, the stock was added to Nasdaq Biotechnology index which could boost its price share
higher.
I’ll be looking to start long position off the 14.6 area to the 16.7 target.
ENTRY 13.7-14.7

TARGET 16.7 THEN 19
MENTAL STOP 12.9

LOSS
ADMS
Adams Pharmaceutical’s stock was given from the 18.5 level for the 22.5 and 28 target.
The stock surpassed our target as we under estimated its fair value.
Technically the stock formed bullish reversal off the 32.75 level and fundamentally the stock is still
undervalued (according our new estimates) with 43 per share fair value
I’ll be looking to start long position off the 32.75 for the 38.2 first target.
ENTRY 32.5-33
TARGET 38.2 THEN 40.5
MENTAL STOP 31
LOSS
NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY IN STOCKS OF INTRESET – BABA, MU, ADSK

BABA
ADSK
MU
 After trimming my position at 46-47 area I will be looking to restart my long position off the
43.66-44.5 for bounce back to 47 then 51.

UPDATES AND NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY – BABA, CRZO, CSTM
SPY
CSTM
CSTM stock started a new upward move as the aluminum market is set to tighten into 2018.
Technically the stock crossed over its MovLReg 90 and fundamentally the stock is still undervalued.
I’ll be looking to start long position off the 10.3-10.6 for the 12.5 target.

ENTRY 10.3-10.6
TARGET 12.5 THEN 14
MENTAL STOP 10.18

LOSS
CSTM - NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
OPTIONS ACTIVITY IN STOCK OF INTEREST
CRZO (TRADE IDEA FROM 12/10)
BABA

UPDATES AND NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY – MU, ALNY , PBYI, BABA
SPY
SPY - NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
XBI
ALNY

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’ stock has retraced to a potential support where it found support and formed
potential bullish reversal, from here if it manages to break over the 124 it could head to 132 then 138.
Recently the FDA lifted of clinical hold of Flusiran and Goldman Sachs added to its 2018 convocation
buy list which could boost its shares price higher.
ENTRY 121.5
TARGET 132 THEN 138
MENTAL STOP 119.5

LOSS
 If we are wrong on the timing of the trade and our stop loss hit we will be looking restart a long
position off the 112-113

WB
Weibo has been reporting an impressive earnings results and the stock in an upward trend.
Recently the stock formed bullish reversal off support after technical pullback and if it manages to
break over the 109.7 it could head to 119.
ENTRY 105.4
TARGET 119
MENTAL STOP 101.7

LOSS

MU – MICRON TECHNOLOGY
Micron reported its fiscal first-quarter revenue soared 71% as it guided the second quarter comfortably
above consensus while noting that could and traditional enterprise data center trends continue to drive
robust demand for memory storage solutions.
 Currently the stock is gaping to our short term target (47) and I will be looking to trim my position
then re-evaluate.
 The stock is still undervalued and once it break 47 it should head to 51.4 then 57.
MU – NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
INTERESTING OPTIONS ACTIVITY IN THE BIOTECH SECTOR
PBYI

 Someone is betting on that PBYI will be trading over 115+ before year end which is 17+ higher from
yesterday’s close.
 I didn’t have the time to make my own DD but I did join him with a small position.
OPTIONS ACTIVITY IN STOCKS OF INTEREST
BABA
UPDATES AND TRADE IDEAS – SPY, XBI, MU,NVDA, RVNC
SPY

XBI
The S&P Biotech ETF is trending on a POTENTIAL SUPPORT level and it manages to break over the
82.5 it could signal for a potential reversal and the sector may start a new upward move with a 89.1
target.
XBI – NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY
RVNC

Revance Therapeutics said on 12/05 that its next generation neuromodulator for injection delivered
positive top line results in alleviating moderate to severe glabellar line in two pivotal phase three trials.
As a result the stock gained 33.6% and hit the 33.62 highs. Since then the stock faded a bit to 31.5 where
it’s finding a support level.
From here I will be looking to add to my position (I started a small position a bit lower) off the 32.6-33.7
as the stock could bounce back to 36.5 then head to 39.8.
Looking at the fundamentals the stock is still extremely undervalued if the company manages to fulfill
its plans and in case of being acquired it could be taken out for over $90+ per share.
ENTRY 32.6-33.7
MENTAL STOP 31.1

LOSS
NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY ON STOCKS OF INTEREST
MU (MICRON TECHNOLOGY’S Q1 EARNINGS TODAY AFTER THE MARKET CLOSE)
NVDA
OVERVIEW, UPDATES AND NEW TRADE IDEAS –FGEN,TSLA,ALXN NVDA, COHU
SPY

The SPY ended the week 0.32% higher closing at the 266.5 level.
From here a break over the 267.55 level should trigger a move to the 269.5.
SPY – NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTVITY
NVDA – NVIDIA CORPORATION

NVIDIA’s stocks retraced from the 217 highs back to 186 where it’s finding a support as it formed
“double bottom” off the 186.5 level.
This pullback may offer a buy opportunity as the stock could bounce to 199 then 212 in the short term.
ENTRY 188-191.5
TARGET 199 THEN 212
MENTAL STOP 184

LOSS
NVDA- NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

COHU
COHU’s stock formed a base at the 21.6 level and closed Friday’s sessions higher on high volume and
should continue the bounce to the 23 then 25.
Looking at the fundamentals, the stock is still undervalued and has 29.5 fair value.
ENTRY 21.6-22.2
CAI

CAI international reported its Q3 earnings report on 10/19 where EPS was $0.9 compared to net loss of
$0.28 per share a year ago and revenue increased to $90.2 from $78.5.
The stock priced decreased from the 39.8 highs to $28.9 where it’s finding a support level and may offer
a buy opportunity as the stock could bounce back to 34 then 36.
ENTRY 28.9-29.5
NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY IN STOCKS OF INTRESET
FGEN

ALXN
TSLA

OVERVIEW, UPDATES AND TRADE IDEAS
SPY
XBI
FGEN

I will be looking to start long position off the 40.2-41 area for potential bounce to 44 then 48.
ENTRY 39-41
TARGET 44 THEN 48
STOP LOSS 38.5
BABA
BIDU
ADSK

OVERVIEW, UPDATES AND TRADE IDEAS
SPY
XBI
LXRX

LXRX’s stock is consolidating in a range after forming potential bullish reversal and a break out over the
10.7 may trigger an upward move to the 12.2 level.
ENTRY 10.1-10.7
TARGET 12.2
STOP LOSS 9.7
YY
BIDU

AMAT
TSLA


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1

SATURDAY, JANUARY 6, 2018

 No change from the latest update

SPY - NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

STOP LOSS 8.8

2 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

I will be looking to start long position off the 30.5-31.8.

3 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

LONGER TERM 135+

NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

4 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

5 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

SPY- NOTABLE OPTIONS ACIVITY

CVE – CENOVUS ENERGY

6 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

NOTABLE OPTION ACTIVITY AND BLOCK TRADES IN STOCKS OF INTEREST

7 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

8 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

SPY- NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

 No change from the latest update

AKAO – ACHAOGEN LNC

9 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

TARGET 12.5 THEN 14

STOP LOSS 10.18

10 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

AMD - ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES

11 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

STOP LOSS 10.18

12 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

13 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

SPY – S&P 500

14 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

SPY – NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

NUGT ( GOLD MINERS BULL)

15 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

STOP LOSS 23.5

NUGT- NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

UCTT – ULTA CLEAN HOLDINGS

16 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

STOP LOSS 18.6

17 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

STOP LOSS 5.64

SPY- NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

18 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

TARGET 16.33 THEN 18

19 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

20 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

SPY – S&P 500

 No change from the latest update

SPY- NOTALBE OPTIONS ACTIVITY

 No change from the latest update

CLVS – CLOVIS ONCOLOGY

Fundamentally the stock is undervalued with a fair value of 84 per share.

22 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

23 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

NOTABLE ACTIVITY OF STOCK OF INTRESET ( RECENT SETUPS)

 No change from the latest update

24 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

25 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

OPTIONS ACTIVITY IN STOCKS OF INTRESET ( RECENT SETUPS)

26 Copyright © 2017 by Aziz Saba & Saba Capital LLC.

SPY – NOTABLE OPTIONS ACTIVITY